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Thursday, March 28, 2024

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  1. phil

    Good cartoon, StJ, sums things up nicely.

    House/Wombat – Can't trust anything this close to rollover.  

    P&L/Wombat – I take it you mean on the Futures?  P&L open is the P&L of the currently open positions.  TOS averages them out and keeps track.  P&L day is since the contracts opened for the day.  There are certain accumulation strategies where that's important to know.

    RYN/Terra – Sibe asked about them a month ago and I said wait:

    2014/03/14 at 10:30 am

    RYN/Sibe – That's a nice sideways way to play housing.  Also, a 4% dividend while you wait ($1.96).  I don't like the way they hit the 200 dma ($48.80) and turned away without even testing so I'd let the 50 dma ($44) catch up before getting too brave but well worth watching. 

    Now we got a double bottom test and they are back over the 50 dma ($46) and, if all goes well, that will cross over the 200 dma ($48) and we'll have a very bullish signal so I would play for the big move with the Nov $45/50 bull call spread at $2, selling the $40 puts for $1.30 for net 0.70 on the $5 spread.  Worst case is you own them for $40.70, another 10% off.  

    AMD/Albo – That shop has now sailed, I liked them in March.  

    CMG/STP, Lunar – Well, we planned to sell the 2016 $280 puts for $10 and they are now $10, so this is the bottom we expected.   Before stopping out of the spread, I think I'd rather buy back the May $550 short calls ($3.80) and roll our $525 calls ($10.40) to the June $515s ($22) so net $11.60 buys us $10 in position and another month and we sell the 5 short 2016 $280 puts for $10 and that makes our net entry $21.50 – $10.50 (original position) + $3.80 (buying back short calls) + $11.60 (the roll) – $10 (the short puts) for a net of $16.40 on the June $515s which are already $22, so not too bad.  We'll keep a stop on the short puts if CMG fails to hold $500 and, if so, then we'll sell some May calls to cover the spread as they might test $480 again before coming back.  

    CZR/Toe – Yes, also 2016 for the bull spread.  

    GOOG not looking good.  Word is Samsung is working on their own mobile O/S so they can actually make some money on their phones.  

    ABX/Burr – Congrats on the patience!  

    Earnings/QC – Thanks.



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