Comment by Phil

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Phil
February 28th, 2011 at 6:33 am

Good morning!  

 

Typical Monday action already with the Dollar hammered back down to 77 but only from 77.25 at 3am so, of course, they are not getting much of a boost but they have saved the pre-markets from a weak morning and, more importantly, they really cheered Asia up, as they had red opens but finished up 1%.  The FTSE is going the other way, down half a point on fears Ireland won’t be paying them back now while the CAC and DAX have gotten back to even off their poor starts.  

 

Oil is down to $97.85 despite the weak dollar but keep in mind that the NYMEX boyz knocked their barrel counts down by 50% in the front-month last week – cashing out over 200M barrels over $90 so, most likely, the only people left holding the bag now are people who bought over $90 in the first place and those people, who still have 650M front 3-months barrels worth $63Bn scheduled for delivery to a facility that can handle, at most 120M barrels.   Those people have BILLIONS riding on keeping tensions as high as possible in the Middle East.  It’s worth BILLIONS to them to have unrest.  It’s worth BILLIONS to them to have people come on TV and tell you about peak oil or paining doomsday scenarios and, if they are able to push some buttons and bring about an actual Doomsday scenario – that could be worth tens of Billions to them….

 

Gold is $1,411, silver is $33.41, copper $4.46, Nat gas is $4.46 too and gasoline is $2.90, which is a new record for March if it holds through tomorrow (already a record for Feb).  

 

No change in levels (we don’t really change levels much, you know) and we’re still watching those 100% lines at: Dow 12,938, S&P 1,332, Nasdaq 2,530, NYSE 8,362 and Russell 800 (100% was 685)   –  So now it’s down to just the Dow (far away) and the S&P (13 points away) to confirm the greatest stock rally of all time.  

How great?  Check this out:   



It’s the greatest recovery EVER!  And of course it is because things have never been better, right?  Good, so it all makes perfect sense….

It’s a HUGE data week and data has been the enemy of the markets so let’s watch that carefully.  There’s so much I’ll close with the list from Briefing.com but first I’ll remind you to read Stock World Weekly for a great perspective of what went on last week – always good to take a brief look back before heading once more into the breach, dear friends….

I’ll be adding the rest of my thoughts on the week ahead in the morning post (as soon as I gather them!).  

Have a good week,

– Phil