Courtesy of Doug Short.
The Personal Income and Outlays report for May was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The latest Headline PCE price index year-over-year (YoY) rate of 1.77%, up from the previous month’s 1.61% (a slight adjustment from 1.62%). The Core PCE index of 1.49% is up from 1.42% the previous month.
As I’ve routinely observed, the general disinflationary trend in core PCE (the blue line in the charts below) must be quite troubling to the Fed. After years of ZIRP and waves of QE, this closely watched indicator consistently moved in the wrong direction. Since April of last year has hovered in a narrow YoY range of 1.21% to 1.10%, although the two most recent months have broken above the range. Is this the beginning of a major trend reversal? This will be a closely watched series by the ongoing inflation/deflation debate.
The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. I’ve highlighted the narrow 12-month range that appears to have been breached to the upside for the past two months.
The first chart below shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. I’ve also included an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed’s preferred indicator for gauging inflation. I’ve highlighted 2 to 2.5 percent range. Two percent had generally been understood to be the Fed’s target for core inflation. However, the December 2012 FOMC meeting raised the inflation ceiling to 2.5% for the next year or two while their accommodative measures (low FFR and quantitative easing) are in place.
I’ve calculated the index data to two decimal points to highlight the change more accurately. It may seem trivial to focus such detail on numbers that will be revised again next month (the three previous months are subject to revision and the annual revision reaches back three years). But core PCE is such a key measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve that precision seems warranted.
For a long-term perspective, here are the same two metrics spanning five decades.
Note: I use the data from Table 9 in the full release and tables available here.
