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Friday, March 29, 2024

Comment by Phil

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  1. Phil

    Oil/Spank – It's a harsh mistress.  Funny (not to you though), that you felt that way exactly at the top of the move.  That's the hard part, learning to ride out those counter-moves and stick to your guns.  There's rarely ever a good down move that doesn't begin with a spike up to flush out the stops. 

    The trick is to learn to wait for those spikes up…

    Dow/Pharm – Only 12/30 are green, could be a lot worse.   Of course, if BA wasn't down $3, could be better too. 

    QCOM/StJ – Both good and now QCOM is a better deal.

    IRBT/StJ – Holding $35 but still down 8% on the day so that's a weak bounce off 10% drop.  $36.50 is strong bounce – that's the line I'll be most interested in. 

    VXX/Wombat – It's because VXX isn't a real thing.  Each month is nothing more than a parimutuel wager (like at the horse track) on the outcome of the monthly race that you are placing against other bettors after the market makers take their cut.  So, like the odds at a racetrack, your options can vary wildly in price solely dependent on the ebb and flow of other bets during your strike month.  Just like a racetrack too, you are unable to lock in your odds and you won't know what you get paid until the race is over (on expiration day) and you finally have a fixed, photo-finish.  

    AAL/Abhish – I'm with Buffett on that one:

    "How do you become a millionaire? Make a billion dollars and then buy an airline."

    Doors/Griffin – Disgusting trend that's going on in NYC.  

    Oil spreads – Too complicated for me.  I like the simple in and out directional plays as, 99% of the time, I don't have to waste my time paying attention to it.  

    MSFT/Albo – Nagarian thinks MSFT will gain $122Bn in market cap in 18 months or less?  Wow, that's adding more than all of HD or AXP or UPS or MCD or BA or UNP or MA or CVS or UNH or MO or GS…  In fact, there's only 36 companies in America with bigger market caps than $100Bn…   They have done it in the past 18 months, but at least they WERE at $40 15 years ago.  Other than a very brief pop to $60 in 1999, they've never been above $50 otherwise  

    AAPL/Hex – Well, that would be the new $81.43/114.29 bull call spread at $14.29 and now it's $14 so, to make it simple, I like the above $80/100 spread better for $10.25 for obvious reasons.  

    Oil/Options – It's always dangerous, especially at the start of a new contract, when there's no pressure on the NYMEX crooks to unwind their fake orders.  

    Click for
    Chart
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    Sep'14 101.96 103.34 101.79 102.93 13:56
    Jul 23

    0.54 205811 102.39 343029 Call Put
    Oct'14 100.84 101.75 100.61 101.47 13:56
    Jul 23

    0.24 102782 101.23 183803 Call Put
    Nov'14 99.93 100.76 99.70 100.53 13:56
    Jul 23

    0.23 52379 100.30 76801 Call Put
    Dec'14 99.09 99.95 98.86 99.74 13:56
    Jul 23

    0.25 55721 99.49 207336 Call Put

    They have a fat, but manageable 343Mb of fake orders for Sept but the front 4 months are pretty stuffed with 810Mb and it's going to get very ugly in October, when they run out of places to hide before the end of the year.  So, if you are of a mindset to keep shorting and rolling – any time is a good time to play but, if you are just trying to make quick money – the fact that $103 isn't holding it down means you need to wait for $103.50 or a clean break below $103 to try again.  

    Spain/Angel – Wow, would you give them money for 10 years for 2.55%?

    GILD/Diamond – They are supposed to be fantastic but fantastic is already priced in.  It's not an overpriced stock if they are making $1.75 per quarter (at $90, the p/e is 12.85) so not a stock to short but should pull back a bit from $100 and that's only $10 away so why risk anything on earnings?  If they miss – that will be a nice opportunity to go long and, if they pop to $100, you just need to wait for the pullback to go long.  

    Wikibooks/Decad – Interesting but very strict about what they want published, not sure we qualify and, even if we do, not sure I want to dump the whole book into what is essentially an open charity project.  Nor am I excited about working for a year on anything that some 3rd party can pull the plug on down the road.  Yes, that sounds about right for a start date (I was on WordPress before that and Blogger before that).  

    Got my batteries from AMZN, right on time.  It's so easy and fun it makes me want to buy something else – like getting a little present every day.  



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