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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Interest Rates Are Up 200% in the Past Three Years … Are You Kidding Me?

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


When one looks at the yields on very short term U.S. Government debt, yields on the 2 & 5-year notes are up a big percentage over the past three years.

Since 2011, the yield on the 2-year note is up over 200% (0.17% to 0.56%) and the yield on the 5-year note is up over 100%. No doubt the actual rate remains very low on a historical basis.

The point of the two charts below is NOT the percentage increase in short-term yields we have seen over the past three years. The focus is to see if interest rate trends on a short-term basis are changing and speculate on the potential impact on longer term rates.

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The 2-year yield looks to be making an attempt to break out of a falling channel at (1) and the yield on the 5-year note is at falling resistance and could be creating a bullish ascending triangle pattern.

New trends start from somewhere. I am watching to see if a trend change in short term rates will spill over into the longer end of the yield curve.

Kimble Charting Solutions
For information, send an email to services@kimblechartingsolutions.com.

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