Courtesy of Doug Short.
The economic mover and shaker this week is the Friday employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, probably the most publicized in the near term being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository).
Today we have the September estimate of 213K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, which we can consider along with the estimate of 206K total new jobs from TrimTabs.
The ADP 213K estimate came in above the Investing.com forecast of 210K for the ADP number.
The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is 215K nonfarm new jobs (the actual PAYEMS number). The Briefing.com PAYEMS consensus is 210K new jobs, but their own estimate is for a higher 245K.
Here is an excerpt from today’s ADP report:
| “September’s jobs added number marks the sixth straight month of employment gains above 200,000,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “It’s a positive sign for the economy to see the 200,000-plus trend continue.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job gains remain strong and steady. The pace of job growth has been remarkably similar for the past several years. Especially encouraging most recently is the increasingly broad base nature of those gains. Nearly all industries and companies of all sizes are adding consistently to payrolls.” |
Here is the press release from TrimTabs:
| TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in September, down from 231,000 in August.
“Employment growth last month was the lowest in three months,” said David Santschi, Chief Executive Officer of TrimTabs Investment Research. “Nevertheless, it has averaged 204,000 per month this year, nearly double the pace of 116,000 per month in the same period last year.” TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the 139 million U.S. workers subject to withholding. “Our high-frequency macroeconomic indicators turned less strong across the board in recent weeks,” noted Santschi. In a research note, TrimTabs explained that the TrimTabs Macroeconomic Index dipped slightly in recent weeks after a strong six-month run, growth in income tax withholdings has pulled back, and non-seasonally adjusted unemployment claims have turned less positive. “Financial markets will lose a huge pillar of support once the Federal Reserve stops printing money in October,” said Santschi. “Nevertheless, we think the Fed will be reluctant to raise the federal funds rate very much next year because the economy is so highly leveraged and inflation as the Fed prefers to measure it remains low.” |
Here is a visualization of the three series over the previous twelve months along with the latest ADP and TrimTabs estimates.
The key difference among the three is ADP tracks private employment, TrimTabs tracks all salaried US employees, and the BLS series is for Nonfarm Payrolls.
For a sense of the critical importance of nonfarm employment for the economy, see my Big Four Economic Indicators, which I will be updating shortly after the employment report is published.
