Comment by Phil

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Phil
October 14th, 2014 at 7:02 am

Good morning! 

VIX/Scott – That's very clever sentiment as you ignore the fact that we've had VIX in the 40s in 2010 and 2011 and VIX in the 80s in 2009.  It's A factor in wanting to sell more premium but we still have to keep our heads and make intelligent plays, not start thinking that just selling volatility is a sure thing.  

Meanwhile, our Futures are about half off their highs at 0.25%ish but were all off their highs about an hour ago (5:30) as Europe opened badly (3-4) and the selling resumed.   Asia wasn't terrible except the Nikkei was down 2.4% and we know that's BAD and remember when we used to not have the word BAD come up every day – or every quarter for that matter so, when I say BAD – it's BAD!!!

Kudlow: The Chinese are not our friends

Europe was flattish in the Futures but, the minute the bell rang it was SELLSELLSELL – Germany is to blame as all that austerity they jammed down everyone else's throats is coming back to bite them in the ass:

German investor sentiment turns negative

• The German ZEW survey of investor confidence has unexpectedly dropped into negative territory for the first time in almost two years, tumbling to -3.6 in October from 6.9 in September and missing expectations of 1.
• The current situation print has slumped to 3.2 from 25.4, falling short of consensus of 18.
• Sentiment for the eurozone plunged to 4.1 from 14.2 and missed forecasts of 7.1.
• "Geopolitical tensions and the weak economic development in some parts of the Eurozone, which is falling short of previous expectations, are a source of persistent uncertainty," says ZEW President Professor Clemens Fuest. "These factors are tarnishing growth expectations in Germany. Disappointing figures concerning incoming orders, industrial production, and foreign trade have likely contributed to the growing pessimism among financial market experts." (PR)
• The DAX is -0.5% and the euro is -0.8% at $1.2653.

EU shares drop amid poor economic data

• European stocks follow some of the major Asian bourses lower after CPI surveys across Europe exacerbate fears about deflation and the world economy, with a poor German investor survey not helping matters.
• "There remains a palpable concern amongst investors that the worst may still be to come," says analyst Angus Campbell. "The market is aware that tapering is due to end later this month and they are also aware that that means the next move for the Federal Reserve is to hike interest rates."
• Euro Stoxx 600 -0.8%, London -0.6%, Paris -0.9%, Frankfurt -0.6%, Milan -1.2%, Madrid-1%.
• U.S. futures: Dow flat, S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.1%.

DEflation:  Italy, France, Spain CPI exacerbate eurozone deflation fears

• Italian CPI -0.4% on month in September vs -0.4% in August and consensus of -0.3%.
• On year, CPI -0.2% vs -0.2% and -0.1%. (PR)
• Spanish CPI stayed at +0.2% on month in September, as expected. On year, CPI -0.2%, as forecast, vs -0.5% previously. That's the third consecutive month of annual price declines in Spain. (PR [Spanish])
• ETFs: EWI, EWP, QESP
• French CPI -0.4% on month in September vs +0.5% in August and consensus of -0.3%.
• On year, CPI +0.4%, as expected, vs +0.5%.
• The largest contributions to the monthly drop were seasonal decreases in the prices of some services at the end of the summer holidays and from a new fall in energy prices. (PR)
• Current account -€4.5B in August vs -€2.2B in July.

The great Lira revolt has begun in Italy. The biggest single party in the Italian parliament by votes has thrown down the gauntlet, calling for a euro referendum to end depression and save democracy, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.

Remember how UK used to be the "good" economy over there?

U.K. inflation falls to five-year low

• U.K. CPI was flat on month in September, down from +0.4% in August and below forecasts of +0.2%.
• On year, inflation dropped to a five-year low of 1.2% from 1.5% and missed consensus of +1.4%.
• Core inflation +1.5% on year vs +1.9% previously and predictions of +1.8%.
• "Falls in transport costs (notably sea fares and air fares) and prices for a range of recreational goods provided the largest contributions to the slowdown in the rate of inflation between August and September," the U.K.'s Office for National Statistics says. (PR)
• Factory output prices (PPI) stayed at -0.1% on month, as expected. (PR)
• "Inflation falls much faster than expected…kiss goodbye to a U.K. rate hike any time soon,"tweets Reuters' James McGeever.
• The pound adds to its losses and is -0.7% at $1.5974, while the FTSE 100 is -0.5%.
• Earlier: U.K. retail sales tumble

U.K. retail tumble 2.1%

• U.K. comparable retail sales surprisingly slumped 2.1% on year in September after rising 1.3% in August and badly missed forecasts for a rise of 1%.
• Food sales continued to fall, while and clothing and footwear sales hit record lows.
• The pound is -0.2% at $1.6051, while the FTSE 100 is -1.5%. (PR)

Is This The Real Growth Scare That Markets Fear

The Defining Problem Of Our Times (In 1 Simple Chart)

Ebola virus threatens state failure, World Health Organisation warns. The Ebola outbreak is threatening “state failure” in west Africa, the World Health Organisation warned, as the US said it needed to overhaul its management of the virus following the infection of an American nurse.

Here Are The Countries Where Ebola Is Most Likely To Show Up Next

Face Mask And Hazmat Suit Companies' Shares Explode Higher On Monday

And we have this to look forward to:  Study Bolsters View That San Francisco Area Is Due for Big Earthquake. Sections of San Andreas Fault Zone Running Beneath Bay Area ‘Are Locked and Loaded,’ but Timing Is Impossible to Predict, Scientist Says.















































FINALLY OVERSOLD!!!  But, can get a bit more so first – hopefully, this is the last day. 



Getting near where we topped out last year.