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Friday, March 29, 2024

The ‘Other’ Recession Indicator Is Flashing Red

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Having disproven the “yield curve is not inverted so there cannot be a recession anytime soon” meme, we thought the following chart of a much more macro-economic-data-related indicator that appears to be a useful timing tool for suggesting recessionary conditions exist would provide some more useful context than an articially-manipulated ‘market’ interest rate.

As Evergreen Gavekal notes, the ratio of coincident-to-lagging conference board indices has an admirable record as a recession forecaster… and is at its lowest level since Sept 2009.

h/t @EvergreenGK

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