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  1. phil
    October 31st, 2014 at 6:58 am

    Blood/Craigs – This is bat-shit crazy now.  Check out the news and try to reconcile it with this market movement.  It's ALL about stimulus.  

    In fact, German Retail Sales were TERRIBLE just now plunging 3.2% in September, the worst monthly drop since May of 2007.  THAT's what's REAL in the economy – it's just being masked by endless stimulus.

    This all follows the grim news earlier in October that the country's industrial sector seems to be grinding to a halt. There's no doubt that this data point is going in the pile suggesting that Germany might be about to fall into recession.

    The plunge in German retail sales, the biggest drop since May 2007, indicates that the German economy was very close to a technical recession in Q2 and Q3.Retail sales were on track for a decent quarterly expansion before September data, but today’s data are bad enough to indicate that retail sales fell back to a modest contraction in Q3.

    The Analyst Who Predicted Germany's Horrible Industrial Numbers Has Another Terrifying Forecast

    Jakobsen has not changed his stance, telling Business Insider about his extremely bleak outlook for the currency union: "The end game is that Germany is very likely to be in recession — that will bring the rest of the eurozone into recession. I think that will be in the first quarter of next year."

    It's sooooooooooo tempting to short the Futures here with /YM 17,300, /ES 2,010, /NQ 4,150 and /TF 1,169 – I think I like /NQ and /TF best but a stop if ANY tow of them are over those lines.  It just doesn't seem likely we'll have another upside shock but you never know.  



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