9.3 C
New York
Thursday, March 28, 2024

New Jobless Claims Come in a Bit Higher Than Forecast

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

In the week ending November 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 291,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 3,000 from 290,000 to 293,000. The 4-week moving average was 287,500, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 285,000 to 285,750.

There were no special factors impacting this week’s initial claims. [See full report]

Today’s seasonally adjusted number at 291K was above the Investing.com forecast of 286K and Briefing.com was looking for 285K. The four-week moving average at 287.5K is now 8.5K above its 14-year interim low set two weeks ago.

Here is a close look at the data over the past few years (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend in relation to the last recession and the volatility in recent months.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

As we can see, there’s a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

Occasionally I see articles critical of seasonal adjustment, especially when the non-adjusted number better suits the author’s bias. But a comparison of these two charts clearly shows extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data, and the 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change in the second chart (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

Click to View
Click for a larger image

Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, a 52-week moving average gives a better sense of the secular trends. I’ve added a linear regression through the data. We can see that this metric continued to fall below the long-term trend stretching back to 1968.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

A Four-Year Comparison

Here is a calendar-year overlay since 2009 using the 4-week moving average. The purpose is to compare the annual slopes since the peak in the spring of 2009.

For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see my recent commentary What Do Weekly Unemployment Claims Tell us About Recession Risk? Here is a snapshot from that analysis.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

For a broader view of unemployment, see the latest update in my monthly series Unemployment and the Market Since 1948.

Subscribe
Notify of
0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Stay Connected

157,452FansLike
396,312FollowersFollow
2,280SubscribersSubscribe

Latest Articles

0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x