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Friday, March 29, 2024

“A Couple Means Two” – Why This Is Important

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Moments ago, after Yellen earlier explained that the Fed may hike rates at any moment, and certainly not only during press-briefing days, she also explicitly, and very unexpectedly, said that the Fed will likely not hike for a “couple” of meetings. And when she was subsequently asked to explain what “a couple” means, she further explained that it means “two.” As a reminder, this comes from a Fed chairwoman who had a trial by fire when, fresh after replacing Bernanke, she locked herself in the “6 month” calendar interval. In other words, she knows not to give the market a timing bogey. And still she did so. Which, quite explicitly, means that anything starting with the 3rd meeting, currently scheduled for April 28-29, 2015, and onward is very fair game and the market will be foolish to expect the Fed not to follow through with this warning, a Fed which is already dangerously close to losing all credibility it has.

And another way of stating it comes from Peter Tchir of Brean Capital. His take:

Looks like the April/May meeting could be the date.  3 reasons:

 

1) A couple means 2 – just stated
2) then could host a conference call on a non press conference meeting
3) she said, i keep telling the market what we are going to do, i wash my hands of the market if they won’t listen

 

She also does not get about oil as transitory. She is remaining very consistent. Core is what matters. 

 

This is hawkish:

 

Trades:

 

Short treasuries 3 year in particular again
Short front end eurodollar futures
Short equities
Hit any last hy energy bond bids while they remain
Buy IG CDX23 protection (short)

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