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Friday, March 29, 2024

S&P 500 Snapshot: A Fractional Gain after Some Morning Volatility

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Before the market opened, the big news was the March Advance Retail Sales, which showed modest recovery after three months of contraction, although a tad less than economists were expecting. The S&P 500 opened higher, ticked up for about ten minutes and then sold off to its -0.44% intraday low about 25 minutes later. It then recovered into the green in the late morning, peaked at 0.30% during the lunch hour and then traded sideways to its trimmed gain of 0.16%.

When the March Consumer Price Index is released on Friday, we’ll take a closer look at Real Retail Sales. Meanwhile, here’s a bit of wonkish indicator trivia that I shared earlier today with some of my economic correspondents. March Retail Sales gives us a preliminary look at the overall Q1 data. What would the Census Bureau’s Retail Sales look like if we used the BEA’s preferred way of calculating quarterly GDP — the compounded annual rate of change? Q1 sales were down 5%.

But no worries. The Census Bureau will probably revise the “advance” data higher, and a hopefully a pleasant spring will have consumers whipping out their wallets.

Today the yield on the 10-year Note closed at 1.90%, down 4 bps from the previous close.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions.

A Perspective on Drawdowns

Here’s a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough.

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Click for a larger image

For a longer-term perspective, here is a charts base on daily closes since the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

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