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Friday, March 29, 2024

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Financial Markets and Economy

Hedge funds are miles ahead of small investors when it comes to one crucial piece of market data (Business Insider)

Hedge funds have a big leg up on individual investors in the stock market when it comes to short interest data.

That means information on whether or not people are shorting a company's stock – or betting that it will fall. It's one of the best indicators of performance for any security, but the exchanges usually report the numbers about two weeks late, reports Bloomberg's Sam Mamudi and Saijel Kishan.

America's future got $7 trillion worse since the financial crisis (Bloomberg)

Still feeling uncomfortable about that tax bill you owed last month? Think about it this way: If you didn't pay it, America's fiscal future would look even worse than it does now, six years out from the financial crisis.

Driven by higher interest costs, Social Security and Medicare for baby boomers, as well as tax cuts made permanent in 2012, the federal debt held by the public is expected to hit $40 trillion in 2035, according to calculations by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget based on Congressional Budget Office estimates. Back in 2009, soon after President Barack Obama took office, the forecast for the 2035 burden was at least $7 trillion lower.

Can Economists Measure Society's Self-Absorption? (The Atlantic)

Last month, Bank of America Merrill Lynch released the compellingly titled report, “Vanity Capital: The global bull market in narcissism,” which put a price tag on the amount spent globally on products and services that enhance appearance or prestige. That price tag is huge: $4.5 trillion, according to the report—larger than the fourth largest economy in the world, Germany’s, with its GDP of $3.7 trillion—and still growing.

The immediate question the report raises is whether it’s even possible to measure such a thing. The premise—to quantify the dollar value of all purchases worldwide motivated in some way by vanity—is a little nutty at its foundation. 

Firecracker explodingChina's stock bubble has gotten so outrageous this stock rose 10% after the company changed its name (Business Insider)

According to a report in The Financial Times, shares of real estate company P2P Financial Information Service rose 10% — the daily maximum — on Monday after the company changed its name.

P2P changed its name from from Shanghai Duoluyn Industry, which is apparently less interesting to investors. 

Here are the 4 things Goldman Sachs knows about millennial parents (Business Insider)

Goldman Sachs is out with a big post about millennials, specifically millennial parents, and the firm has outlined 4 things we know about these folks, 3 things we think we know about them, and 2 things we still have no clue about. 

Who Is Coming to America? Increasingly, Chinese Students and Indian 20-Somethings (Wall Street Journal)

China and India are sending more immigrants to the U.S. than Mexico, following more than a decade of decreasing immigration from Latin America, according to the latest numbers from the Census Bureau. So, who exactly is coming? It’s hard to say, but a good guess is that Chinese college students and 20-something Indian workers are playing a big role.

Recent U.S. immigrants from China were more likely to be college-aged in 2011 to 2013 than in 2005 to 2007, according to a Census study presented this month at thePopulation Association of America’s annual demography conference. The study uses data from the American Community Survey, which asks respondents if they are foreign-born and lived abroad a year ago.

U.S. stocks dipping after Friday’s rally (Market Watch)

U.S. stocks were trading lower on Monday, with the main indexes falling as investors look set to cash in on some of last week’s healthy gains.

Trading has been choppy in morning trading with the S&P 500 SPX, -0.05%switching between small gains and losses, at 2,114, with six of its 10 main sectors trading lower, with the energy sector leading losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.11% was 25 points lower, or down 0.1%, at 18,165.39 , and The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.18%  was switching between gains and losses and was flat at 5,002 in late-morning trade.

People's Bank Of ChinaFive Things Everyone Will Be Talking About Today (Bloomberg)

China cuts rates again, it's Greece versus everyone in Brussels and why nobody is excited about the Bank of England decision. Here are some of the things that people are talking about this morning.

bull bear bronze statue in frankfurtNumber of bulls at 2-year low as stocks go flat (USA Today)

Wall Street kicks off the new week with U.S. stocks just a whisker from a record high, but recent market turbulence has caused Main Street bulls to pull in their horns.

Sure, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index on Friday shot up 28.10 points to 2116.10 on good news on the jobs front, putting it within 2 points of a record closing high to kick off the new week on Wall Street.

Lotteries: America's $70 Billion Shame (The Atlantic)

Americans in the 43 states where lotteries are legal spent $70 billion on lotto games in 2014.

Seventy billion? I thought. No, that’s impossible. That’s more than $230 for every man, woman, and child in those states—or $300 for each adult.

But it’s true: According to the North American Association of State and Provincial Lotteries, lotteries took in $70.1 billion in sales in the 2014 fiscal year. That’s more than Americans in all 50 states spent on sports tickets, books, video games, movie tickets and recorded music sales.

Stocks and Trading

The Power of Mentoring in Cultivating Trading Success (TraderFeed)

An interesting meta-analysis (a study that statistically combines many different research studies) found that mentorship is associated with a number of favorable outcomes, including positive attitudes and career success.  That study found academic mentoring to be particularly effective, enhancing the motivation, performance, and goal-setting of proteges.  

In the recently published Forbes interview, Charles Kirk points out that tenacity–the ability to hang in there during challenging times–is an essential component of trading success.  He makes a very important point about mentoring.  The mentor teaches and supports, but also provides that push in the right direction–particularly when things aren't going so well. 

sumo slam

What are traders chatting about this morning? Greek stocks getting slammed … (Business Insider)

Good Morning! US Futures are slightly red, with the S&P barely retreating from recent range highs. Over in Europe, the Greek Rhetoric worsening as EU Fin Min meet today ahead of Greece’s IMF deadline tomorrow (Zero expectations for today) – Athens is off 3%, led by a 7% drop in their banks – causing broader weakness across Europe. London continues to outperform on Election tailwinds, with FTSE up small, but EU Stoxx is off 1% and the DAX 40bp, but volumes are pacing very light (25% recent averages). Fins and Consumer Discretionary are the weakest sectors, with Tech and Materials trying to outperform. Over in Asia, Chinese stocks jumped 3% as PBOC cuts rates over the weekend…

Politics

Hillary Rodham Clinton hosted a round-table discussion last week in Las Vegas.Poll Shows Lack of Excitement Over Presidential Hopefuls (NY Times)

Those vying against Hillary Rodham Clinton for the presidency will face multiple obstacles, but a new poll from George Washington University shows that her fame could be one of the biggest.

The university’s latest battleground poll shows that Mrs. Clinton has the highest favorability rating of 11 prospective candidates, at 48 percent. Former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida is a distant second among Republicans, with 35 percent of the 1,000 voters surveyed viewing him favorably.

Dean Skelos Faces Growing Opposition as Support Wanes Among Republicans (NY Times)

Facing a rising tide of opposition from within his party, State Senator Dean G. Skelos’s position as Senate majority leader was deeply imperiled on Sunday night, though it was not clear how, and under what terms, his tenure might end.

Jon Stewart smacks down Megyn Kelly for hypocrisy over GOP corruptionJon Stewart smacks down Megyn Kelly for hypocrisy over GOP corruption (Salon)

Jon Stewart resumed Fox News hypocrisy watch on Thursday night’s “Daily Show,” calling out Megyn Kelly and the network for condemning Hillary Clinton for her alleged favors for foreign donors while turning a blind eye to the influence of billionaires in the Republican presidential campaign.

Progressives Are Getting Clobbered in Europe. Here's Why Their Chances Are Better in America. (Mother Jones)

While Kevin Drum is focused on getting better, we've invited some of the remarkable writers and thinkers who have traded links and ideas with him from Blogosphere 1.0 to this day to contribute posts and keep the conversation going. Today we're honored to present a post from Ruy Teixeira.

The United Kingdom voted on May 7 to determine its next government. Despitepredictions that there would be a hung parliament with an advantage to Labor in forming a coalition government, that did not turn out to be the case. Instead the Conservatives won an outright majority, meaning that David Cameron will continue as Prime Minister, not Labor Party leader Ed Miliband, as most believed.

Clinton Foundation Broke Transparency Promise To Obama, "Strong Armed" Charity Watchdog (Zero Hedge)

A few weeks back, we outlined what we called The Clinton Foundation’s “Geithner moment,” where, after a Reuters investigation revealed discrepancies, the charity decided to refile five years worth of tax returns and review filings dating back as far as fifteen years. At issue are disclosures around contributions from US and foreign governments which Reuters claimed totaled “tens of millions” of dollars in a typical year but which mysteriously disappeared altogether from the organization’s 990s starting in 2010. As we noted at the time, the Foundation was quick to point out that when it comes to charities, it is exemplary in terms of being forthright, but the missing disclosures will likely serve to fan the flames for Republicans who claim Clinton’s ties to the charities could make her susceptible to the influence of outside interests.

Technology

Apple Working With WWF China to Manage Sustainable Forests (Bloomberg)

Apple Inc. and the World Wildlife Fund will work together to manage as many as 1 million acres of forests across China as Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook arrives in Beijing to announce new environmental initiatives.

Apple is funding the five-year project, to be managed by the global charity, to plant trees and implement environmental standards that use less land and water — and produce less pollution — to make paper, they said in separate statements.

Robots are coming for your job: Amazon, McDonald's and the next wave of dangerous capitalist "disruption"Robots are coming for your job: Amazon, McDonald’s and the next wave of dangerous capitalist “disruption” (Salon)

In the United States and other advanced economies, the major disruption will be in the service sector—which  is, after all, where the vast majority of workers are now employed. This trend is already evident in areas like ATMs and self-service checkout lanes, but the next decade is likely to see an explosion of new forms of service sector automation, potentially putting millions of relatively low-wage jobs at risk.

Health & Life Sciences 

Clues contained in ancient brain point to the origin of heads in early animals (Science Daily)

A new study from the University of Cambridge has identified one of the oldest fossil brains ever discovered — more than 500 million years old — and used it to help determine how heads first evolved in early animals. The results, published in the journalCurrent Biology, identify a key point in the evolutionary transition from soft to hard bodies in early ancestors of arthropods, the group that contains modern insects, crustaceans and spiders.

The study looked at two types of arthropod ancestors — a soft-bodied trilobite and a bizarre creature resembling a submarine. It found that a hard plate, called the anterior sclerite, and eye-like features at the front of their bodies were connected through nerve traces originating from the front part of the brain, which corresponds with how vision is controlled in modern arthropods.

woman doctorWhen Gender Stereotypes Become A Serious Hazard To Women’s Health (Think Progress)

When Kathy tried to seek medical attention for abnormally heavy periods that were leaving her feeling so faint that she was unable to stand, four different medical professionals said it was all in her head. They concluded she was simply struggling with anxiety and perhaps even had a serious mental health disorder. She says her primary care doctor repeatedly told her, “All your symptoms are your imagination.”

The measles vaccine protects against more than just the measles (Science Based Medicine)

One of the disadvantages of writing for this blog is that sometimes I feel as though I spend so much time deconstructing bad science and pseudoscience in medicine that I’m rarely left with the time or the opportunity to discuss some interesting science. Of course, even when I do that, usually it’s in the context of that very same bad science or pseudoscience, and this post won’t be different. Still, there was some interesting science with respect to vaccines published last week in Science, and I think it’s worth looking over. The only thing that surprises me is that the antivaccine movement hasn’t jumped all over it yet. On the other hand, its press coverage was relatively minimal, and I didn’t really notice it until an article appeared on (sadly, yes) The Huffington Post entitled “The Measles Vaccine Can Protect Against Much More Than Measles, According To New Study“:

Measles_US_1944-2007_inset

Life on the Home Planet

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie delivers his budget address, Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2015, in Trenton, N.J. Chris Christie Makes Big Admission On Climate Change (Think Progress)

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie admitted that he thinks climate change is real and that humans contribute to it at an event in New Hampshire last week.

But Christie, a likely 2016 Republican presidential candidate, also added that he thinks the degree to which humans contribute is questionable, according to MSNBC.

“I think global warming is real. I don’t think that’s deniable,” he said. “And I do think human activity contributes to it.”

Accusations of Terrorism Worry Brooklyn’s Uzbek Community (NY Times)

To understand the Uzbek community of Brooklyn, sit down and share a cup of tea with some of them. Please, drink. They pride themselves on hospitality, and to refuse would be impolite.

The first thing they mention is that they work hard. And that Uzbeks are peaceful and respectful of their elders. This they can all agree upon.

New Atheism’s fatal arrogance: The glaring intellectual laziness of Bill Maher & Richard Dawkins (Salon)

Atheism has a storied history in the West. From the irreverent Voltaire to the iconoclastic Nietzsche, the godless have always had a voice. But the New Atheists are different. Religion, they argue, isn’t just wrong; it’s positively corrosive. If you’ve heard people like Bill Maher or Lawrence Krauss speak in recent years, you’re familiar with this approach.

New Atheism emerged in 2004 as a kind of literary and social movement. Led by such luminaries as Richard Dawkins, Sam Harris and Christopher Hitchens, New Atheism became part of the zeitgeist, a well-timed reaction against religious fundamentalism. The New Atheists are notoriously pugilistic. In print or on stage, they never run from a fight. Whatever you think of their tactics, they’ve succeeded at putting fanatics and moralizers on the defensive – and that’s a good thing.

But…

Starbucks is poised to become the next McDonald's (Business Insider)

Starbucks could be the next McDonald's. 

Traditional fast food chains are losing market share to up-and-coming establishments like Chipotle as millennial customers search for healthier options.  

This shift in consumer mindsets puts Starbucks in a unique position to take over, according to a recent report by Goldman Sachs.

 

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