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Thursday, March 28, 2024

News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

A Year of Lower Oil Prices: Crossing A Boundary? (Art Berman)

The oil price collapse of 2014-2015 began one year ago this month (Figure 1).  The world crossed a boundary in which prices are not only lower now but will probably remain lower for some time. It represents a phase change like when water turns into ice: the composition is the same as before but the physical state and governing laws are different.

Daily Crude Oil Prices Through June 2015

Market Wrap: Greek "Capitulation" Optimism Sends Global Risk Higher After China Re-crashes (Zero Hedge)

Before we focus on the Greek drama which this morning has soared to new highs, a quick look at China which after trading largely unchanged for most of the day, saw a bout of late day selling, which brought the Shanghai Composite 5.2% lower, wiping out all Tuesday rebound gains, and back to the Monday post-PBOC crash level.One thing that was clear: nobody cared about the Chinese PMI data, where both the official PMI and HSBC Mfg PMI missed expectations and printed at 50.2 (exp. 50.4) and 49.4 (Exp. 49.6), respectively.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 14% YoY (Calculated Risk)

Mortgage applications decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 26, 2015. …

Mortgage Refinance Index

China Stocks Fall: Shanghai Composite Index Drops 5.2% (Bloomberg)

Chinese stocks tumbled in late trade, with the benchmark index almost erasing Tuesday’s rally, as margin traders unwound positions for a seventh straight day and data showed economic growth remaining sluggish.

chubbIt's a $28.3 billion insurance mega deal (Business Insider)

Insurance provider Ace Limited is buying Chubb in a $28.3 billion deal, it announced on Wednesday.

The boards of both companies have agreed to the deal that will see Chubb shareholders receive $62.93 per share in cash and 0.6019 in Ace shares.

Markets leap on Greek U-turn (CNN)

Global markets have given the thumbs up to news coming out of Greece.

The Greek government said it is now ready to sign on to a bailout package it threw out just days ago, a dramatic reversal of its earlier position.

U.K. stocks charge higher as Greece talks continue (Market Watch)

U.K. stocks rallied Wednesday after a report that Greece’s prime minister will now agree to bailout terms set by the debt-burdened country’s creditors.

The FTSE 100 UKX, +1.30%  leapt 1.3% to 6,607.70, on track to break a four session losing streak.

As well, European stocks SXXP, +1.65%  jumped by more than 1.5% and U.S. stock futures shot higher after a Financial Times report that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is ready to accept nearly all of the conditions to a new bailout deal that its international lenders proposed over the weekend.

A worker sits near shovels at a coke plant in the town of Avdiyivka near Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, June 23, 2015.  REUTERS/Gleb GaranichEuro zone factory growth stutters as China, Japan heals (Business Insider)

Asia's largest economies showed hints of healing last month but euro zone factory growth remained tepid as Greek debt talks, and the country's possible departure from the bloc, dominated debate in Europe.

Speculation Athens would fail to make June 30's 1.6 billion euro repayment to the International Monetary Fund, heightening expectations Greece would crash out of the currency union, kept the bloc's manufacturing output check.

Employees work at a walling material factory in Jiaozuo, Henan province March 12, 2015. REUTERS/China DailyChina June factory, services surveys fuel hopes economy leveling out (Reuters)

Activity in China's factory sector expanded slightly in June though not as much as expected, while growth in the services sector sped up, official surveys showed, offering some signs that the world's second-largest economy may be starting to slowly level out after a raft of support measures.

Beijing has rolled out a flurry of steps since last year, including interest rate cuts and more infrastructure spending, but analysts remain wary about the outlook given the still-weak property market, erratic global demand for China's exports and fears of a collapse in its wild stock market.

Reis: Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q2 to 16.6% (Calculated Risk)

Reis released their Q2 2015 Office Vacancy survey this morning. Reis reported that the office vacancy rate was unchanged compared to Q1 at 16.6%. This is down from 16.9% in Q2 2014, and down from the cycle peak of 17.6%.

Office Vacancy Rate

Some Chinese Are Taking 22% Margin Loans to Finance Stock Purchases (Bloomberg)

Zhang Minmin is one of tens of thousands playing in one of the riskier corners of China’s stock market, borrowing money at high interest rates through unregulated online lenders to amplify his bets on potential equity gains..

China Margin Financing

China Races To Rescue Stocks As Margin Mania Unwind Wreaks Havoc (Zeri Hedge)

As outlined earlier today, Chinese equities re-plunged on Wednesday, retracing Tuesday’s bounce and returning stocks to their post-PBoC crash levels, hit on Monday after a desperation dual rate cut failed to trump margin jitters and ATM lines in Greece. 

As tipped in “The Biggest Threat To Chinese Stocks: Shadow Lending Crackdown,” margin trading above and beyond officially sanctioned broker limits has likely added somewhere between CNY500 billion and CNY1 trillion to the official (and already stratospheric) CNY2.2 trillion in margin lending that’s poured into the market since last summer. Here’s BofAML on shadow lending and why it’s important going forward…

European Stocks Surge on Hopes for Greek Deal (Wall Street Journal)

European stocks surged Wednesday on renewed optimism about a possible deal between Greece and its creditors.

The Stoxx Europe 600 opened higher and extended gains sharply after Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras sent a new proposal for budget cuts and policy overhauls as part of a request for a new bailout.

Why isn't the middle class earning $156,000 a year? (CNN)

Everyone knows the Top 1% have been killing it in recent decades, while most Americans have seen their incomes stagnate.

But what if the middle class were doing as well as the richest Americans? What would their annual income be?

chart middle class keeping up

Thanks, Uncle Sam: Wall Street’s latest score could be huge (Market Watch)

One of the bigger drags on the federal budget is the cost of paying for everyone’s retirement. No, not Social Security—I’m talking about the gold-plated pensions for the millions of current and former employees who work for Uncle Sam.

Here’s a shocker: the program’s in the red. Deep red. A Congressional report last year said the Federal Employees’ Retirement System is on the hook, as of 2012, for $790 billion in pension payouts that are currently underfunded; the number will balloon to $856 billion in a decade. It’s hard to see how the government can pay this, not with the fiscal pressure it’s already under, not with an economy that’s not growing quickly enough and not when interest rates are trending higher, which will raise borrowing costs.

New Deutsche Bank CEO warns staff will act to fix problems (Business Insider)

Deutsche Bank's new Chief Executive John Cryan told staff to prepare for tough reforms as he shakes up a group that he said had become too diversified and complex.

On his first day as CEO of Germany's largest bank, the 54-year-old Briton warned staff not to expect only "sweetness and light in the coming months," and that they must repair a reputation damaged by misconduct.

Greek ATM queuesGreek Crisis Ripples Across European Companies as Markets Swing (Bloomberg)

Greece’s financial turmoil rippled across corporate Europe as a market rout sabotaged planned bond sales and stock offerings and threw companies into crisis-response mode to deal with unsettled customers.

German real-estate investor ADO Properties and retailer CBR Fashion Holding shelved initial public offerings, citing volatile markets, while Adler Real Estate halted plans to sell a convertible bond. Travel companies Tui AG and Thomas Cook Plc fielded calls from travelers about access to cash after Greece introduced capital controls to prevent bank collapses, while Greece’s Titan Cement Co. suspended its dividend payout.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decreased to 17.1 million annual rate in June (Calculated Risk)

Based on an AutoData estimate, light vehicle sales were at a 17.1 million SAAR in June. That is up 1.5% from June 2014, and down 3.5% from the 17.7 million annual sales rate last month.

Vehicle Sales

lasttocrashWho will be the last to crash? (Freeman Perspective)

This is the question that astute investors are forced to ask themselves these days. No reasonable person believes that a system of ever-expanding debt can resolve painlessly. It simply cannot happen… not, at least, until 2+2 stops equaling four.

But the international money system, while deeply interconnected, can implode in sections. In fact, it’s highly unlikely that it will crash as a single unit.

Trading

6 Analyst Stocks Predicted to Double (24/7 Wall St)

June brought a lot of investor volatility toward the end of the month. Some sectors and stocks made big moves, and some are expected to make even larger moves in the months ahead. 24/7 Wall St. reviews dozens of analyst research reports each day to find new trading and investing ideas for its readers. Some of these analyst calls cover stocks to buy and they sometimes come with massive upside. Occasionally, some analyst picks are even called on to nearly double in price.

boomers millennials retirementRetirement advice from a Boomer to a Millennial (CNN)

I'm in my early 60s and fortunately will be able to retire soon. But I work with a lot of young people who just don't get how important it is start planning early for retirement. They don't even seem to know where to start. I'd like to help them better prepare — do you have any advice?

Politics

 

 

 

 

 

 

How The U.S.-Cuba Reconciliation Could Save Lives In Both Countries (Think Progress)

On Wednesday, President Barack Obama announced the U.S. and Cuba will officially reopen their respective embassies by the end of July, ending a nearly six-decade impasse that began at the height of the Cold War.

“We don’t have to be imprisoned by the past,” the president told reporters. “When something isn’t working, we can — and will — change.”

Obama administration’s crackdown on for-profit colleges goes into effect (Market Watch)

After years of challenges, the Obama administration’s crackdown on for-profit colleges will go into effect Wednesday.

The so-called gainful employment regulations require that a typical graduate of a career college – or school that trains students specifically for jobs — maintain annual loan payments that are less than 8% of their earnings or less than 20% of their discretionary income. Programs that don’t meet these requirements would be at risk of losing their federal financial aid funding.

U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at the Virginia Democratic Party's annual Jefferson-Jackson party fundraising dinner at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia, June 26, 2015. REUTERS/Joshua RobertsClinton struggled to fit in with Obama's White House, emails show (Reuters)

Hillary Clinton struggled to fit into the government of President Barack Obama after being appointed Secretary of State in 2009, according to emails released by the State Department on Tuesday.

They showed Clinton turning up for meetings that had been canceled and worrying about how much time she had with her new boss, revealing growing pains in the relationship between her and former election rival Obama in the early months of her time as America's top diplomat.

Why Obama Gave a Christian Speech Without Mentioning Jesus (Atlantic)

Over the weekend I explained why I thought Barack Obama’s “Grace” speech, in eulogy for Rev. Clementa Pinckney and eight others, was so rhetorically and politically effective. Yesterday I quoted readers on what they liked and didn’t about his presentation.

One who objected was an evangelical Christian. I had said I was struck by the president’s easy use of explicitly Christian language and references in the speech. The reader said he was struck by the absence of one word in the speech: Jesus.

Technology

Siri's best Easter eggs (CNN)

Sure, Siri will help you find directions, play a song or set reminders for you.

But there's another, grittier side to Apple's (AAPLTech30) virtual assistant.

Since Siri's 2010 debut, users have been discovering Siri's "Easter eggs" that the Apple engineers have hidden in the system.

 

 

This robot that can spin together 3D-printed furniture could really get your creative juices flowing. And maybe eventually inspire the world to nix sectional couches once and for all.

Meet Galatéa, the honking, seafoam-colored robot arm that looks like road construction equipment. “She” was invented by engineer Sylvain Charpiot, founder of French startupDrawn. Galatéa is a large-scale 3D printer, formerly an industrial robot that worked in a car factory, that makes fully recyclable furniture that’s limited only by the imagination. She heats plastic (Drawn says it’s the same kind used in Legos) at over 440 degrees Fahrenheit to make simple furniture. Right now, objects can reach six-and-a-half feet long and four feet high.

oneplusYour next smartphone could be from China (CNN)

If you're looking to buy a new smartphone in the United States, you've got a sea of options from companies based in America, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Canada.

But China has largely been left out of the U.S. market. That's about to change.

Chinese brands each have bold plans to enter the United States. And they think they can take on entrenched incumbents Apple (AAPL,Tech30) and Samsung.

 

 

Health and Life Sciences

Weird cells in your semen? Don't panic, you might just have flu (New Scientist)

Men: don't worry but there are strange round cells floating in your semen. The question is why? The latest idea is that infections like flu are to blame, by disrupting sperm production.

When couples find it difficult to conceive, a man's ejaculate is often under the microscope, literally. Beyond looking at the sperm cells themselves, clinicians often look for so-called "round cells".

pH test stripsUrine acidity may influence odds of U.T.I. (Futurity)

The acidity of urine—as well as the presence of small molecules related to diet—may influence how well bacteria can grow in the urinary tract, a new study shows.

The research may have implications for treating urinary tract infections, which are among the most common bacterial infections worldwide.

 

 

Life on the Home Planet

Steam rises from a slope near the hot springs resort of Hakone, Kanagawa prefecture on June 30, 2015. Japan's meteorological agency on June 30 raised a volcanic warning for the popular hot springs resort of Hakone by one notch. Quake Swarms Hit Iceland, Japan Rumbles (Wired)

Japan

EARLIER THIS SPRING, the area around Hakone has deemed too dangerous for the tourists who usually frequent the area due to increased seismicity and deformation of the volcano near Tokyo. 

Iceland

Meanwhile, after a few months of volcanic quiet in the island nation, a new earthquake swarm has started off Iceland’s southwestern coast. 

Testing heats up at Sandia’s Solar Tower with high temperature falling particle receiverTesting heats up at Sandia's Solar Tower with high temperature falling particle receiver (Phys)

This month, engineers lifted Sandia's continuously recirculating falling particle receiver to the top of the tower at the National Solar Thermal Test Facility, marking the start of first-of-its-kind testing that will continue through 2015. The Sandia-developed falling particle receiver works by dropping sand-like  through a beam of concentrated sunlight, capturing and storing the heated particles in an insulated tank. The technology can capture and store heat at high temperatures without breaking down, unlike conventional molten salt systems.

The bird is gregarious and lives in family groupsBabbler bird calls 'convey meaning' (BBC)

A bird can communicate in a similar way to how humans use language, scientists have discovered.

A study of the chestnut-crowned babbler bird from Australia revealed a method of communicating that has never before been observed in animals.

aftermath of Rim fire in YosemiteExtreme forest fire in 2013 altered Yosemite (Futurity)

An illegal campfire in Stanislaus National Forest adjacent to Yosemite National Park started what would become the Rim Fire, the third largest fire in California history, that burned from August through October 2013.

The fire burned about 400 square miles inside and outside Yosemite, with 78 square miles burned on the worst day.

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