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Thursday, March 28, 2024

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  • phil

    SPY  5  MINUTEGood morning!

    Pretty blah day so far in Asia and Europe ahead of tomorrow's NFP Report (the Big Kahuna).  We also have a BOE Rate Decision at 7am with Carney speaking at 7:45, then RBA (Australia) tonight and BOJ tomorrow early AM.   Then attention goes back to China over the weekend with Trade Balance, CPI and PPI – all of which are expected to have improved in July due to stimulus.

    Our Futures are flattish as well after yesterday's total joke of a session with no volume, a spike open and then selling to suckers all day long or what we affectionately call a "normal" Wednesday these days.  AAPL traded more shares (99M) than SPY did yesterday.  I was off on my 2,100 call yesterday morning – we ended up at 2,099.84 – I'll have to recheck my calculations!  blush

    4,600 is a great shorting line for /NQ as long as AAPL stays down.  So many overvalued stocks in that index.  17,500 is a good line on /YM with tight stops above and you know I like shorting /TF at 1,330 and /NKD tested 20,800 but already back to 20,680 so that ship has sailed.  

    Dollar 97.98 is stubbornly high (don't forget BOE coming), oil pathetic at $44.50 but it's been a good long so far, so I don't see why not give it a chance and it is Thursday, so /RB $1.66 is a fun long but VERY tight stops below as we may test $1.65.  Gold $1,083.9, silver I still like long at $14.50 (/SI), copper is pathetic at $2.35 and nat gas $2.76 is still doing OK, considering. 

    And here we go again:

    Germany has growing doubts about quick deal on Greek aid – Bild

    Cost of a third Greek bail-out is likely to be too high for Europe

    Greece's Debt Relief Bill Rises To €100 Billion And The IMF Ain't …

    debt gdp eu

    The problem here is that the current Greek debt crisis — and the EU refinancing of that debt — is being negotiated by the two countries that have the least-normal view of what an economy can reasonably expect in terms of debt. The Germans pay their debts easily and cannot understand why the lazy Greeks shouldn't do the same. The Greeks believe their debt is crippling the country's ability to generate the economic activity that might lead to normal debt repayments, and cannot understand why the Germans can't see that too.

    I liked this article on Metals by UBS – very balanced:

    But are things really that bad?

    Leaving aside Greece, banks are not failing, credit is not evaporating and industrial production is not imploding.

    Global manufacturing activity is at best moderate, at worst mediocre, but certainly not critical.

    History is not repeating itself, but it may be rhyming, since metals are being hit by another toxic bear cocktail of negative fundamental and financial drivers.

    But they are different this time around.

    Indeed, the current slow-motion collapse in metals, and many other commodities, might best be understood as the great unwind of the last crisis.

    Bill Ackman of Pershing Square purchased a $5.5 Billion (6.66%) stake in MDLZ!

    Some earnings before Thursday’s open:
    AAON, ACTA, AGIO, AGN, AGO, AINV, AMCX, APA, AXAS, AYR, BBEP, BBW, BCE, BDBD, BDX, BECN, CC, CCC, CCOI, CECE, CNK, CNQ, CNSL, CRIS, CRZO, CTB, DDD, DUK, DX, EAT, EBS, EMES, ENOC, ENR, EXK, EXTR, FSV, FSYS, GCAP, GLOG, GLP, GNRC, GOGO, GTXI, GWPH, HCLP, HGG, HII, HILL, HL, HSNI, INFI, INSY, IRC, KOP, KORS, LAMR, LEAF, LPI, LQDT, MBLY, MEG, MFC, MITL, MMP, MMS, MPEL, MYL, NGS, NRF, NRP, NRZ, NVO, NXST, NXTM, NYT, OA, OGE, ONE, OTIV, OWW, PBH, PGNX, PLUG, PRIM, RDEN, RGEN, RICE, RSTI, RVLT, RWLK, SATS, SBH, SEAS, SFY, SGM, SNH, SPH, SRPT, SSTK, STN, SUNE, TA, TAP, TDC, TECH, TESO, THS, TK, TLP, TNK, VER, VIAB, WIN, WPP, YORW, ZEUS

    Some earnings after Thursday’s close:
    ABTL, ACAD, AHT, AIRM, AL, ALEX, ALNY, AMBR, AMRN, AMRS, ANAC, ANAD, ANET, ASEI, ASYS, ATHX, BBG, BEAT, BIO, BITA, BOJA, BRKS, BRS, CECO, CENX, CERS, CLVS, CPST, CSOD, CUB, CUBE, CVT, CYTX, DIOD, DMD, DRYS, EAC, ED, EFC, EGN, EGOV, EGY, ELON, EOG, ERII, ESPR, EVC, FLDM, FLTX, FPRX, FXCM, FXEN, GALE, GEOS, GNMK, GSBD, GXP, HNSN, HTGC, HUBS, IMI, IMPV, INWK, IRG, JMBA, KTOS, LGF, MAIN, MDVN, MHK, MNST, NDLS, NEWR, NFG, NPTN, NUAN, NUS, NVDA, OLED, ONTY, ORIG, OSTK, OUT, PACD, PETX, PLNR, PODD, POST, PRO, RBA, RBCN, RIGP, RJET, RMAX, RPTP, RRMS, SAAS, SEM, SEMG, SFM, SHO, SKUL, SPPI, SRC, SREV, SSRI, STMP, SWIR, TCRD, TCX, TEAR, TNGO, TPC, TRMR, TRUE, TRXC, TSRO, TWOU, UBNT, VRNS, VSAT, WAIR, WIFI, WING, XOMA, XOXO, ZNGA

    This is why I don't make many picks this time of year – too many cross-currents. 

    LOL on this:  "Goldman on TSLA: "A difficult result introducing diminished near-term operational visibility", lowers 6-month price target from $236 to $234."  Wow, that's really sticking it to them!  

    And, what inflation? (this is the Fed's own chart):

    8-5-2015 5-44-40 PM 1

    8-5-2015 5-44-40 PM 1

    8-5-2015 5-45-25 PM 3

 

 

 

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