Comment by phil

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phil
November 24th, 2015 at 4:30 am

Good morning! 

Things were drifting along until this:  

Warplane apparently shot down by Turkish jets in Syria was Russian, officials in Moscow say http://bbc.in/1Npk3n4 

Oops!  Of course, this is why I prefer to be cautious in the markets when there are wars and terrorism and such going on all over the place (aside from the weak economy) – you never know when things might escalate. Still, we'll probably bounce back as it's such low volume and Trade Bots don't care about such things…









Europe being hit very hard:





/NKD still getting rejected at 20,000 – EZ money there:



Oil gains as Saudi Arabia reiterates its commitment to a more stable market http://bloom.bg/1OoJYYW 

OPEC Seen Holding the Line as $40 Oil Looms Over Vienna Meeting. It’ll take more than $40 crude to make OPEC change its mind, analysts said before the group’s Dec. 4 meeting in Vienna. In the year since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries chose to defend its market share, and let prices sink, a 44 percent plunge in crude has slashed members’ revenues by almost half a trillion dollars. Undeterred, the group will press on with its strategy to batter rival producers when ministers meet next week, according to 30 analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg.







And, of course:



So that's our allies, Turkey, shooting down a Russian jet using weapons we sold them!  

This will be interesting….





Industrial Metals Trade Near Multi-Year Lows on Supply Glut. Industrial metals traded near multi-year lows amid a supply surplus and a strong dollar. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, reached a 10-year low in Sydney. Prices have declined 28 percent this year, the worst annual drop since the global financial crisis, amid the slowest growth in a quarter of a century in China, the world’s biggest consumer, and concern that mining companies are not willing to cut production enough. The U.S. currency is trading near the highest level since at least 2005, making commodities more expensive for buyers in other currencies. Aluminum rose 0.7 percent, while copper, nickel and zinc fell at least 0.3 percent.





5 protesters shot by alleged white supremacists at #4thPrecinctShutdown a week after @MinneapolisPD shot #JamarClark

QE has clouded market vision of normal http://on.ft.com/1R2SuQ0 

U.S. issues global travel alert, cites al Qaeda threat | Reuters

State Department issues worldwide travel alert. (video) The State Department issued a worldwide travel alert Monday over possible risks due to increased terrorism threats. The alert comes amid information that ISIS, Al Qaeda, Boko Haram, and other terrorist groups continue to plan attacks in multiple regions by employing a “wide variety of tactics,” according to the State Department.

 

Dallas mayor says he’s more fearful of armed white men than Syrian refugees: http://thkpr.gs/3725109 

Paris Suffers Slump in Christmas Bookings After Terror Attacks

Bank of America: The 'Great Divorce' Between the World's Two Largest Economies Will Drive Currency and Rates Markets in 2016. The "marriage of convenience" is over. "On the eve of the December FOMC meeting, we think the question is not whether the U.S. economy can live with higher interest rates and a higher U.S. dollar. The question is, given the semi USD/RMB peg and China's increasing open capital account (which come at the expense of China's monetary independence), whether China can live with higher U.S. interest rates and a higher U.S. dollar. We are skeptical. This is why we think the USD/RMB peg, a marriage of convenience that has been the anchor for the global growth model for the better part of the last 15 years, is headed for a divorce, and we think the RMB devaluation on Aug. 11 was a first small step in this direction."

Fed Rate Odds Rise to 74% in Bond Market as Pimco Sees Liftoff. The odds the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next meeting in December climbed to 74 percent, and Pacific Investment Management Co. says a move is likely. The probability the central bank will act at its Dec. 15-16 session increased from less than 30 percent as recently as mid-October, futures contracts show.

Central Banks Are Out Of Dry Powder" Stockman Warns "Another Financial Crisis Is Unavoidable

Leveraged loans may push the markets 'to the point of tears'

Swiss Bank "Goes There", Applies Negative Rates To Retail Deposits

Insiders sending an ominous market signal. (video) The recent jump in stock prices has one important group of disbelievers. Corporate insiders have been dumping shares at the highest pace in 4½ years, according to market data firm TrimTabs. The selling averaged $450 million a day in November, the highest since May 2011.

It Might Be A "Services Economy" But Manufacturing Drives Recessions

 

Asia Stocks Drop as Tumbling Commodity Prices Weigh on Producers. Asian stocks fell as tumbling commodity prices dragged raw-materials shares lower, with BHP Billiton Ltd. on course to close at the lowest since 2008. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.1 percent to 134.16 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo, as Japanese markets opened after a holiday. Material shares led losses among the regional measure’s 10 industry groups.

China’s Rising Service Sector Won’t Ease Import Pain, Report Says. The San Francisco Fed report gives a dour near-term outlook but says trade over the long-term should grow ‘more balanced’.

5 Things to Watch in the 3Q GDP Report

Bill Ackman Triples-Down On Valeant(VRX): Boosts Stake To 9.9% By Buying Calls, Selling Puts

Donald Trump is firing warning shots at the national Republican Party

ISIS militants are using an incredibly addictive drug to feel invincible on the battlefield

Tuesday's economic calendar:

• 8:30 GDP Q3
• 8:30 Corporate Profits
• 8:30 International Trade
• 8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
• 9:00 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
• 10:00 Consumer Confidence
• 10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
• 10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
• 11:30 Results of $13B, 2-Year FRN Auction
• 1:00 PM Results of $35B, 5-Year Note Auction

 

Investors await GDP revision, other U.S. data

• The U.S. Commerce Department will issue third-quarter preliminary numbers for gross domestic product this morning, which is expected to display a greater figure than initially thought.
• GDP will likely show an upward revision to 2.1% growth, from an original reading of 1.5%, reflecting a lesser drag from inventories and stronger consumer spending.
• Today's report will also provide the first glimpse of corporate profits in the third quarter and will likely reinforce expectations for the Fed to hike interest rates in December.
• Also on tap: Consumer confidence, trade figures and S&P/Case-Shiller home price data.