Oppenheimer: Tesla Worth $340

February 10, 2016

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Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) is up almost 8 percent at $155.02 amid analyst chatter following its Q4 earnings release.

While the results are being viewed as predominately mixed, the general consensus is that despite a few blips in the report, the print and guidance were healthy.

According to analysts at Oppenheimer, the positives from the Q4 print are effectively undoing the bearish sentiments toward Tesla, "We believe much of the bear case is getting dismantled as it is predicated on weakness in demand and manufacturing efficiency."

Citing investor concerns over the Gigafactory and the remaining cash worries in general, the analysts adjusted opex spending higher:

1Q16 non-GAAP revenue/GM/Non-GAAP EPS of $1.62 billion/25 percent/$0.08
Modeling 16,000 unit sales
2016 estimates adjusted up to $7.8 billion/26.6 percent/$2.50
Fiscal year 2016 unit sales now at 80,500.

Remaining "constructive on shares," the analysts applauded Tesla's guidance ahead of the Street, commenting, "We think the FY guide should quell some of the skepticism around the ramp in production."

Base Case And Catalysts

The note outlined the base case assumption for Tesla as "modest reception of Model X and stationary storage products" and the company reaching the "low end of 80,000 vehicle shipment guidance for 2016."

Catalysts for the company included: 1) reaching profitability on GAAP basis by the fourth quarter of 2016, 2) early 2016 launch of Model 3 and 3) vehicle production and Gigafactory progress.