Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.
The Fed’s Open Market Committee press release at 2 PM was, as expected, the fulcrum in today’s market action. Asian markets were subdued in the shallow red while most major European Union indexes were a bit more upbeat. The S&P 500 gyrated at the opening bell and then sold off to its -0.45% intraday low about 70 minutes later. It then zigzagged upward to the 2 PM press release and then rallied to its modest 0.39% intraday high about 15 minutes before the close. The press release was little changed from its predecessor. The post-Fed rally shrank to a fractional 0.16% yawner of a close.
Treasuries were more impressed by the FOMC press release. The yield on the 10-year note closed at 1.87%, down seven basis points from the previous close.
Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.
Here is a daily chart of the index. Volume rose slightly on today’s Fed mini-drama.
A Perspective on Drawdowns
Here’s a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough.
Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted.
Here is a linear scale version of the same chart with the 50- and 200-day moving averages.
A Perspective on Volatility
For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. We’ve also included a 20-day moving average to help identify trends in volatility.
