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Thursday, March 28, 2024

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  1. phil

    Good morning! 

    We're getting our 1% bounces as the Dollar pulls back half a point.  Europe up 2.5% after a mixed session in Asia which was pretty good considering how terrible we all looked.  Of course, you have to keep even Europe's bounce in perspective:

    For the DAX, 10,000 is the Must Hold line (and NYSE) so 10,250 is +2.5% so we certainly use that and we fell to 9,250 (-7.5%) for a 10% drop so a 2% bounce to 9,450 is WEAK and we're not excited until we see 9,650.

    Euro Stoxx also fell 10%, from 3,000 to 2,700 so 60-point bounces to 2,760 (weak) and 2,820 (strong) are expected and no surprise we're paused at 2,760 for the moment.  Remember – we have to hold weak (without failing) for a full day and THEN strong the next day or it's not a real recovery.  Then we take volume into account –  yesterday was another huge day on SPY at 250M so 600M down 10% can't be erased by 300M up 10% – that's not how things work.

    We talked about our Dow bounces yesterday and S&P (/ES) hit our 1,980 mark on the dot from our 2,100 line so 120 points means (rounding) 25-point bounces to 2,005 (we're there now) as a weak bounce and 2,030 will be the strong bounce line.  

    On the whole, I'm hoping we don't get strong signals ahead of the holiday as I don't think it's a good time to buy – no matter what the charts say.  Still, we'll work on a buy list in chat and I bet we find a few things we can sell puts on.

    Oil is back over $46.50 (/CLN6) and Gasoline (/RBQ6) is back just under the $1.52 line and is now the front-month on the charts.  Congrats to those who stuck with it yesterday and, of course, $1.525 is the next strong line we can play bullish (with tight stops below do I really need to say?).

    Honey badger just doing its thing, of course. 

    Tuesday's economic calendar

    Equities shake off Brexit fears

    • A recovery is taking shape across the globe after a record $3T in market cap was wiped off the board in just two trading days and sterling fell to its lowest level in over 30 years.
    • Hopes of a more coordinated central bank response to support the financial markets and firmer oil prices are helping stocks claw back some of their losses following the Brexit battering.

    Cameron faces rough meeting in Brussels

    • Heads of government of the EU's member countries are gathering for a two-day meeting of the European Council in Brussels.
    • No country has ever left the bloc, so they are in uncharted territory as they try to figure out how to make Britain's divorce proceed as smoothly as possible.
    • Pressure is also expected to be applied on the U.K. to trigger Article 50 as soon as possible to curtail the uncertainty surrounding the European economy and political establishment.

    World’s Top Fortunes Fall $196.2 Billion Since Brexit BombshellGlobal markets erased another $69.2 billion from the combined net worth of the world’s 400 richest people Monday, bringing the total since the U.K. shocked investors with a vote to leave the European Union to $196.2 billion in the last two trading days.

    Worst of Brexit Pain Yet to Be Felt in U.S. Credit, Banks Warn. (videoMorgan Stanley and UBS Group AG are telling their clients to brace for deeper losses in U.S. credit as a result of the U.K. vote to leave the European Union. While the "leave" camp’s win in the U.K. referendum has already rattled markets and caused U.S. corporate bond spreads to surge the most since the European sovereign debt crisis, credit strategists at the two banks say the worst is yet to come. Bonds aren’t cheap enough to warrant taking the risk that the market volatility isn’t temporary. "Despite the urge to step in and buy U.S. credit at modestly wider levels than a few days ago, we recommend patience," Morgan Stanley strategists led by Adam Richmond wrote in a note to clients Monday. "While the full impact of the U.K. leave may not be known for some time, the U.S. economy is not in a position to withstand a large shock."

    Gross Says U.S. Recession Odds May Be 30% to 50% Post-Brexit

    Greenspan Warns A Crisis Is Imminent, Urges A Return To The Gold Standard

    The End Game Of Bubble Finance – Political Revolt

    The Fed’s Market Mover Keeps Changing His MindJames Bullard has developed an unrivaled reputation for shifting his stance on whether the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates.

    One of these 8 countries could be the next domino to fall

    How China’s yuan could be the currency whipping boy of BrexitBank of America cuts China’s 2016 GDP view given shifting trade outlook.

    Some Bad And Some Worse News For Stock Buybacks

    Report: Moody's to cut outlooks of major U.K. banks

    • Moody's will revise the outlook of "a number of big U.K. lenders" to negative from stable today due to fallout from last week's EU referendum, Sky News reports.
    • The plan comes just hours after rival Standard & Poor's stripped the U.K. of its coveted triple-A rating and Fitch downgraded the sovereign.

    The First Casualty Of Brexit: Italy Prepares €40 Billion Bank Bailout

    SPX DAILY

    SPX WEEKLY

    INDU DAILY

    INDU WEEKLY

    6-27-2016 4-23-41 PM INDU

    RUT WEEKLY



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