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June 30th, 2016 at 1:17 pm
Considering/Tom – You need to focus more on BEING THE HOUSE, not on guessing which way the market will go (ie. gambling). Sell premium, sell premium and, when in doubt, sell more premium! That way, no matter what the market does, you have money coming in (like the $7,200 we collected on short FAS) and you use that money to buy more positions where you can sell more premium. If you focus on your job (selling premium) and plant your trees, the rest will certainly come over time. And have I mentioned you should be selling premium?
TLT/Pharm – I don't think we are Japan. Japan is like the banker in Monopoly who decides to cheat and keeps taking $500 bills for himself. It all works out great unless the other players notice and then they all demand $500 bills and soon the properties all get bid up (inflation) and the whole game begins to fall apart as the bank runs out of money and everyone realizes the properties are way more valuable than the easily available cash. THAT is where we are now – just about to hit the inflation stage of the game.
Paper trading/Palotay, Tom – Good advice.