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Thursday, March 28, 2024

GDP Revisions 2013-2015 by Quarter

Courtesy of Mish.

Every year in July, the BEA releases a set of annual revisions.

As noted previously, a portion of those revisions are related to a construction spending data error that goes back ten years.

Let’s take a look at the revisions.

GDP as Revised

GDP 2016-07-29

  • 2013 Q1: +0.9 percentage points
  • 2013 Q2: -0.3 percentage points
  • 2013 Q3: +0.1 percentage points
  • 2013 Q4: +0.2 percentage points
  • 2014 Q1: -0.3 percentage points
  • 2014 Q2: -0.6 percentage points
  • 2014 Q3: +0.7 percentage points
  • 2014 Q4: +0.2 percentage points
  • 2015 Q1: +1.4 percentage points
  • 2015 Q2: -1.3 percentage points
  • 2015 Q3: unchanged
  • 2015 Q4: -0.5 percentage points

Because of construction errors I was pretty sure 2015 would be revised lower and I expected 2014 to go up. The latter appears to be flat.

For 2013, upward revisions to inventory investment, exports, and residential and nonresidential fixed investment were partly offset by a downward revision to personal consumption expenditures (PCE).

For 2014, a downward revision to inventory investment, an upward revision to imports, and a downward revision to state and local government spending were offset by upward revisions to exports, PCE, and residential fixed investment.


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