Courtesy of Declan.
Friday’s action was relatively muted, but really it was all about holding the breakouts generated in the first half of the week. While low unemployment suggests the economy is running close to maximum, it’s hard to see when this Trump rally will end. It looks like Trump himself will probably kill it with his immigration policy as skilled workers (H1B, Greencard workers) get caught in the sweep. But until then, with buyers exceeding sellers, bulls don’t yet have a reason to worry.
The S&P has net positive technicals, with relative performance against Small Caps also ticking higher. Of technicals, On-Balance-Volume is looking the weakest and is likely to be the first to turn negative (and suggest sellers are gaining the upper hand).
The Nasdaq is enjoying excellent relative (out-performance) against the S&P and this pressure has delivered a well angled rally off November lows. Also, unlike the S&P, there are no obvious or upcoming technical weaknesses.
The Russell 2000 has struggled a little over 2017. This index is perhaps the bellwether for the year and a potential fly in the ointment for bulls. Small Caps are key drivers for long term bull rallies, but without their participation it suggests a flight of safety and move away from speculative companies. The index is sharply under-performing its peers and still retains a MACD trigger ‘sell’. Last week’s ‘bear trap’ was a good start, but the work isn’t finished yet.
For Monday, bulls need keep an eye on S&P On-Balance-Volume and look to ensure the Russell 2000 doesn’t fall further back into last week’s ‘bear trap’ – threatening negation. Trump’s executive actions in the first week are not good news, and are certainly unsustainable. Surrounding himself with lackeys and family will not help alternate thinking and while he will have a forgiving Congress and Senate, the vultures will be out if there is a sniff of weakness. Markets will be sensitive to his crazy policies and are likely to remain very volatile; good and bad (like the man himself).
You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.
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