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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Merkel’s CDU/CSU Party Loses Lead in Two of Three Latest Polls: Coalition Math

Courtesy of Mish.

On February 3, polls showed German chancellor Angela Merkel is less popular than her opponent Martin Schulz. (See Merkel an Election Shoo-In? Nope, Think Again)

Nonetheless, Merkel supporters took comfort because Merkel’s CDU/CSU party was more popular than Shulz’s SPD party.

The latest polls have since taken that lead away.

On February 6 I noted The “Impossible” Happens in Germany. The “impossible” was a rise in support for SPD by 10 percentage points in 14 days.

A quick check now shows SPD is in the lead or tied in four of the eight most current polls, and in the lead in two of the three most recent polls.

Coalition Math

german-polls-2017-02-2

The above chart modified from Opinion Polling for the 2017 German Federal Election.

I typically discard early polls in favor of more recent ones. It’s hard to know where to draw the line. One can make a case for February 5, 6, 8, or even 10. The last three or four polls likely show the current state of affairs.


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