The week ahead sees focus in Europe turn back to the French elections with the first presidential debate coming up on Monday, while in the US we get plenty of Fedspeak to parse, including from Chair Yellen. On the US economic docket, the key economic releases this week are the new home sales report on Thursday and the durable goods report on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Yellen on Thursday.
The UK also remains on the radar, with an important data week ahead bringing updates on inflation and retail sales, and also bringing us one week closer to the triggering of A50, which will be done on March 29.
In G10 Central Banks, only the RBNZ coming up, which we expect to remain on hold, despite Q4 GDP significantly disappointing their forecast.
- There will be monetary policy meetings in Russia, Colombia, Taiwan and The Philippines. We forecast Colombia’s Banrep to cut 25bp. Rating reviews in Saudi Arabia and Georgia.
- In the US, the main focus will be on durable goods as well as a host of Fed speakers including NY Fed President Dudley and Chair Yellen. We also get existing & new home sales and the current account balance.
- In the Eurozone, focus is back on PMIs, where we expect a marginal decrease. Recent data continue to reflect a disconnect between ‘soft’ survey data and ‘hard ‘activity data. We also get the final TLTRO II announcement, where we expect a large take-up. Lastly, there is also a Eurogroup meeting where Greece will be discussed among other things.
- A busy data week for the UK, with inflation and retail sales the main focus, though we also get public finances data, which should be of little interest given the recent Budget .
- In Japan, a light calendar ahead – trade balance, BoJ minutes and BoJ’s Funo on the agenda.
- In Canada the main data releases are inflation and retail sales.
The week’s daily breakdown courtesy of DB’s Jim Reid:
It looks set to be a fair bit quieter this week. The lone data in Europe this morning is PPI in Germany while in the US the only data due is the Chicago Fed national activity index.
On Tuesday the early focus is on the UK with both the February CPI/PPI/RPI prints and also the CBI trends orders data and public sector net borrowing data for last month. In the US we’ll get the current account balance reading.
Kicking off Wednesday is Japan where the latest trade data is due. There is nothing of note in Europe on Wednesday while in the US we’ll get the FHFA house price index and February existing home sales.
The diary is a bit busier on Thursday with various confidence readings due in France and Germany in the morning along with UK retail sales data for February. Over in the US we will then get new home sales, initial jobless claims and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index.
We end the week with what looks set to be the busiest day on Friday. In the morning we will get the flash March manufacturing PMI in Japan before we then get the flash manufacturing, services and composite PMI’s in Europe. France GDP will also be released. In the US we then end with preliminary February durable and capital goods orders and also the flash manufacturing PMI.
Away from the data this week’s Fedspeak consists of Evans this evening, Dudley, George and Mester on Tuesday, Fed Chair Yellen on Thursday along with Kashkari and Kaplan, and then Evans on Friday along with Bullard. Bundesbank President Weidmann is also due to speak today and the ECB’S Lautenschlaeger on Thursday. The BoJ minutes from the January meeting are due out on Tuesday. Other events worth watching is the live televised debate between the French presidential candidates tonight and also the Euro area finance ministers meeting today, including a discussion on Greece.
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Finally, here is a focus on just the US courtesy of Goldman Sachs:
Monday, March 20
- 08:30 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Evans will discuss current economic conditions and monetary policy in a live TV interview on Fox Business News with Maria Bartiromo during “Mornings with Maria”.
- 01:10 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will give a speech at the New York National Association for Business Economics Luncheon in New York. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
Tuesday, March 21
- 06:00 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will participate in a panel discussion with Bank of England Governor Carney on ethics and culture in banking at an event hosted by the BoE in London.
- 08:30 AM Current account balance, Q4 (consensus -$128.1bn, last -$113.0bn)
- 09:45 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will give a speech at the 12th Asia-Pacific High Level Meeting on banking supervision in Bali, Indonesia.
- 12:00 PM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Esther George will give a speech on the US economic outlook and monetary policy at the Women in Housing and Finance luncheon in Washington D.C. Audience Q&A is expected.
- 06:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will give a speech as part of the Robins School of Business Executive Speaker series at the University of Richmond.
Wednesday, March 22
- 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, January (consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%): Consensus expects the FHFA house price index to rise 0.4% in January, in line with the pace of growth in December. The FHFA house price index has a wider geographic coverage than the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, but is based only on properties financed with conforming mortgages. On a year-over-year basis, FHFA home prices rose 6.2% in December.
- 10:00 AM Existing home sales, February (GS -3.0%, consensus -2.4%, last +3.3%): We look for a 3.0% decline in February existing homes sales, following last month’s 3.3% increase. Regional housing data released so far suggest a moderate slowdown in closed homes sales, consistent with the 2.8% drop in January pending homes sales (which represent contract signings), and we suspect some of this weakness reflects the impact of higher mortgage rates. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers’ commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report.
Thursday, March 23
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 18 (GS 235k, consensus 240k, last 241k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 11 (last 2,030k): We expect initial jobless claims to decline 6k to 235k, somewhat below its recent trend, reflecting some additional normalization in New York following several volatile weeks affected by the timing of school holidays. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – declined at its fastest pace since mid-January in the most recent report (30k to 2,030k), suggestive of additional labor market improvement. Lastly, we note the year-to-date improvement in several energy-producing states, where initial jobless claims increased modestly last week but remain at a low level.
- 08:45 AM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give opening remarks at the 2017 Federal Reserve System Community Development Research Conference in Washington D.C. No Q&A is expected.
- 10:00 AM New home sales, February (GS +3.0%, consensus +1.8%, last +3.7%): We expect new home sales to rise 3.0% in February, adding to the 3.7% increase last month, reflecting unseasonably warm weather and limited snowfall. We also expect a favorable fundamental backdrop and the elevated level of single-family building permits to mitigate the negative impact of higher mortgage rates on new homes sales activity. On the negative side, sales of new homes in the Northeast region appeared elevated in January and seem likely to retrench.
- 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, March (consensus +14.0, last +14.0)
- 12:30 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will give a speech on US education outcomes and achievement gaps at the 2017 Community Development Research Conference in Washington D.C. Media Q&A is expected. At the March FOMC meeting, President Kashkari was the one dissenter in the committee’s decision to raise the federal funds rate target.
- 07:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will participate in a moderated Q&A session on “Tailwinds and Headwinds: The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
Friday, March 24
- 08:00 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Evans will give opening remarks at the 2017 Community Development Research Conference in Washington D.C.
- 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, February preliminary (GS +2.0%, consensus +1.2%, last +2.0%): Durable goods orders ex-transportation, February preliminary (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.6%, last flat); Core capital goods orders, February preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.6%, last -0.1%); Core capital goods shipments, February preliminary (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.1%, last -0.4%): We expect durable goods orders to rise 2.0%, driven by higher non-defense aircraft orders indicated by stronger company-reported data. We also believe the details of the report are likely to be strong, reflecting further improvement in manufacturing surveys, solid February industrial production data, encouraging commentary from industrial firms, and Chinese New Year effects that alone could add much as 1.4pp to core capital goods orders. Accordingly, we expect a 0.6% increase in core capital goods orders and a 0.7% increase in core capital goods shipments. We expect durable goods orders ex-transportation to rise 0.8%.
08:30 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speak: St. Louis Fed President Bullard will give a speech to the Economic Club of Memphis. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
08:30 AM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President John Williams will participate in a discussion on a paper titled, “Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest” at the Brookings Institution’s Papers on Economic Activity spring conference.
- 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Manufacturing PMI, March preliminary (consensus 54.7, last 54.2)
- 10:00 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will take part in a fireside chat at York College with business and economics students. Audience Q&A is expected.
Source: DB. BofA. GS