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  1. phil

    Good morning!  

    Asia was up half a point and Europe is up 1/3 and we are up 1/10th.  I still have my /TF shorts (8 at 1,448) and my oil shorts (10 at $48.36) but looking to get both back to 2 asap.  Oh, even on oil would include getting back my loss so about $47.90.  Probably I'd drop to 5 from there with very tight stops over $48, hoping inventories go well.

    Meeting/StJ – I hope all went well.  

    Oil/Latch – As I often say, I don't end up using tight stops myself as I am not always paying attention to Futures.  That doesn't mean it's not a good idea – I simply don't have time to stare at it all day.  So, I play with conviction and was intending to DD up to $49 (to avg $48.75) but I ended up adding on the way below $48.50 for 8 short at $48.36 now (2nd round).

    Apparently, if the Fed tightens today, it will be quite a shock to the investing community but, if they don't, there's only Sept 20th, Nov 1st and Dec 12th left and Dec is too close to XMas (they learned that lesson) which means they pretty much have to hike both of the other meetings and the Fed likes to stay flexible so better to raise today and see what happens in 6 weeks – especially with the market at highs again.

    Non-condsenable/BDC – Well, if you want to be nit-picky about it, the CO2 itself doesn't cause the warming, the water vapor does but the addition of CO2 in the atmosphere increases the density of the water vapor (because it's non-condensable) and that, in turn, causes warming which then causes more water to vaporize which causes a feedback loop that leads to Venus.  Also, Hanj's chart only proves GDP is expanding faster than CO2, which is good but doesn't really help the planet if it's still increasing.

    Image result for venus global warming

    Image result for venus global warming

    Image result for venus global warming

    ESRX/Batman – Still BS'ing about the Anthem contract.  They have offered terms ESRX won't accept and they'll lose them in 2019 (biggest customer) if they don't have a deal by early next year.  The reality is ANTM, who sued ESRX for overbilling (and lost) can't find anyone who will come close to the current prices so they are just being dicks but it's a bad relationship to have with your biggest client.  

    Oil/Latch – Grinning and bearing at the moment ($48.38).

    Indexes popping too.  

    Demand/Malsg – A leap forward in battery tech and oil dies a sudden death.  





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Zero Hedge

Rig Count Drops Most In 7 Months As 'Traders' Panic-Buy Crude Futures

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The US oil rig count dropped 5 to 763 last week, the biggest drop in 7 months. However, crude production from the Lower 48 has surged (rising the most since June last week) to the highest since July 2015. Even with today's sheer farce panic-buying squeze higher in WTI crude, oil looks set for its 3rd weekly close lower as BNP notes the "whole supply surplus story is not likely to go away anytime soon."

  • *U.S. OIL RIG COUNT DOWN 5 TO 763 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHGE US
  • ...


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ValueWalk

Billionaire Seth Klarman's Margin Of Safety

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Billionaire Seth Klarman’s Margin Of Safety

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Phil's Favorites

More Headline Amusement: Consumer Sentiment Surges

Courtesy of Mish.

Yesterday, we were told Fearful Investors Lost Faith in Trump.

Today, Bloomberg tells us Surge in Expectations Drives Gain in U.S. Consumer Sentiment.

Consumer sentiment climbed in August to a seven-month high as a measure of the outlook for the U.S. economy and personal finances registered the largest one-month advance since the end of 2011, according to University of Michigan survey data released Friday.

Consumer sentiment has recovered following a two-month slide as President Donald Trump’s le...



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Insider Scoop

Things To Like, Things To Watch At The Gap

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related GPS 20 Stocks Moving In Friday's Pre-Market Session A Peek Into The Markets: U.S. Stock Futures Edge Higher Ahead Of Consumer Sentiment Repor...

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Chart School

Volatility on the Rise

Courtesy of Declan.

Today's losses look big on current charts but in a historic context, they weren't too severe. However, big red bars are not to be ignored and 'market leading' Small Caps have felt the full brunt of the selling from July which is bad news for the broader market.  Today's losses in the Russell 2000 undercut the 200-day MA leaving 1,345 as next support (of which I would not be too confident of it holding).


If the Russell 2000 gives up 1,350s then a drop to 1,150s could be on the cards. Things could get ugly if this scenario pl...

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Digital Currencies

Ukrainian Lawmakers Disclose $45 Million In Bitcoin Holdings

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As Ukraine's crackdown on corruption continues, three lawmakers from Ukraine’s ruling party revealed this week that they own a combined $45 million in bitcoin, according to a report by RIA Novosti, a Russian foreign news service.

Their holdings came to light during mandatory financial disclosures by members of the Ukrainian parliament, part of an IMF-approved strategy to tamp down corruption in Ukraine. The country's democratic institutions, which were never very robust to begin with, have been further destabilized by...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 14th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Editing human embryos with CRISPR is moving ahead - now's the time to work out the ethics

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Editing human embryos with CRISPR is moving ahead – now's the time to work out the ethics

Courtesy of Jessica BergCase Western Reserve University

There’s still a way to go from editing single-cell embryos to a full-term ‘designer baby.’ ZEISS Microscopy, CC BY-SA

The announcement by researchers in Portland, Oregon that they’ve successfully modified the genetic m...



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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

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Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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