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Global Stocks Storm To New Record High Ahead Of Historic Fed Announcement

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last week's bullish sentiment that sent the S&P not only to a new all time highs, but a burst of last-second buying pushed above 2,500 for the first time ever, has carried through to the new week, with European and Asian shares rallying across the board, US futures again the green, and world stocks hitting a new record high on Monday ahead of a historic Fed meeting in which the FOMC is expected to announce the start of the shrinkage of its balance sheet.

“The FOMC’s latest verdict will be of special interest,” said Daniel Lenz, an analyst at DZ Bank in Frankfurt. “The Fed could well set the balance-sheet-reduction process in motion.”

MSCI's index of world stocks hit a new all-time high, adding to gains seen on Friday when Wall Street set its own record level, while Europe’s main stock index opened at a six-week high on Monday and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan rose to heights not seen since late 2007.

As DB's Jim Reid summarizes the week's key events, this week will be dominated by 3 of the most powerful women in the world "and I'm not talking about Daenerys Targaryen, Cersei Lannister and Sansa Stark. Instead we have our real world version with Mrs Yellen likely to announce the end of Fed reinvestment on Wednesday, Mrs Merkel firm favourite with the pollsters to see a big election win on Sunday and Mrs May set to outline her latest Brexit vision in Florence on Friday. Of the three, Mrs May's speech is currently the least predictable but after a big week for the UK last week (GBPUSD +2.98%, GBPEUR +3.75%, 10yr Gilts +32bps, and the November hike probability from 18.4% to 64.5% according to Bloomberg's calculator), Sterling assets are seeing some significant volatility at the moment."

Before we get there, however, there is much optimism and the Stoxx Europe 600 jumped the most in almost a week as 16 of 19 sectors advanced, rising 0.3% in early trading, the highest in almost six weeks. The European rally was led by banks, telecoms and utilities, while travel & leisure shares underperform as Ryanair falls after saying it plans to cancel flights amid crew issues. The Stoxx Europe reached its highest level since Aug. 8. The FTSE 100, recently hit by a surge in the pound, is up 0.4%. Shares in Ryanair drop 3.3% after the Irish airline said it will scrap 40 to 50 flights daily for six weeks. Fingerprint sinks 21% after warning on its revenue outlook.

Asian equities rose more than a percent, the most in two months, after the record-breaking Wall Street session on Friday amid optimism the U.S. will pursue a peaceful resolution to North Korea’s nuclear threats. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index added 1% as of 4:39 p.m. in Hong Kong to trade close to its highest level since December 2007. The Philippines benchmark gauge, South Korea’s Kospi index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index are the three biggest gainers Monday with an advance of more than 1 percent each. S.Korea's Kospi index climbed 1.4% and Australia’s main gauge was up 0.5% at the close. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong gained 1.3% . The Shanghai Composite Index was 0.3% higher. Japan markets are shut for respect-for-the-aged day. The Japanese yen fell as much as 0.5 percent to 111.37 per dollar, the weakest in almost eight weeks before recoupoing some losses and trading at 111.20 last.

Hong Kong shares rallied Monday as developers were buoyed by policy hopes and brokerages gained after China relaxed rules on stock-index futures trading. Hang Seng Index jumps 1.3%, most in a month, to close above 28,000 resistance level for first time since Aug. 30 as developers extend rally into third day, with China Resources Land Ltd. jumping 7.5% to highest since May 2015; China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. gains 4.9%. According to Bloomberg, concerns over possible tightening before the 19th Party Congress has waned after data showed home prices increased in fewer cities in August, reducing the probability of more curbs, says Toni Ho, analyst at Rhb Osk Securities Hong Kong Ltd.

U.S. futures also rose after equities increased from Australia to Hong Kong. The gains come after the S&P 500 Index broke through 2,500 for the first time on Friday and the Dow Jones Industrial Average chalked another record.

Not all is certain however, as an address by President Trump to world leaders at the United Nations on Tuesday, and elections in Germany and New Zealand will add extra political uncertainty to the mix this week.  But the main event will be the abovementioned Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, at which it is virtually guaranteed to take another step toward policy normalisation amid what is rapidly becoming a global trend. As a reminder, Canada has already hiked interest rates twice in recent months – the last time in a shock move that surprised most traders -  while the Bank of England shocked many last week by flagging its own coming increases. The European Central Bank is meanwhile expected to shed more light on plans to exit its extraordinary stimulus in October.

Political uncertainty also made a surprise appearance after sources said Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was considering calling a snap election for as early as next month to take advantage of his improved approval ratings and disarray in the main opposition party.

And yet persistently subdued global inflation despite a pick-up in growth remains the “trillion dollar” question for central banks looking to normalize policy, a report from Bank for International Settlements said on Sunday. As such, investors are far from convinced the Fed will move on rates again this year, with a December change put at less than a 50 percent probability in the futures market.

“It is fair to say that in our recent travels most of the investors we have spoken to question not just a December hike, but whether the Fed will hike at all again this cycle,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets. “When you press investors on the why, the standard reply is the lack of inflationary pressures.”

In any case, overnight the dollar was stronger, reaching an eight-week high against the yen, as investors await the widely telegraphed Fed announcement, as oil climbed while safe havens continued to slide as investors breathed a sigh of relief that the weekend passed with no new provocation by North Korea. Currency traders started the week by adding risk-on positions amid optimism the U.S. will pursue a peaceful resolution to North Korea’s nuclear threats; the dollar climbed against the yen as 10-year Treasuries held last week’s losses in London trading; sterling fell as some investors took money off the table following the pound’s best week versus the greenback since 2009, while the euro swung between losses and gains as a report cited ECB Governing Council member Hansson advocating a “somewhat broader recalibration” of stimulus.

The U.S. dollar rose to an almost eight-week high against yen after U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said his country is seeking a peaceful outcome to end the nuclear standoff with North Korea, and as Japanese markets were closed for holiday. The USD was also supported by 10-year Treasury yields, which rose to the highest level in almost a month as bets build for Fed to announce timing of balance-sheet tapering after policy meeting Wednesday, and rising U.S. stock futures. The ten falls against almost all major peers as investors expect BOJ to maintain stimulus when it sets policy on Thursday; Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he’ll decide on calling a snap election after he returns from a trip to the U.S., giving the pair a lift on speculation of further continuation of Abenomics.

In rates, U.S. Treasury yields jumped a hefty 14 bps last week, but were little changed on Monday, as were most developed bond markets. In Europe, the eye-catching move was a sharp slide in Portuguese yields on the country regaining an investment grade rating after 5-1/2 years.  The yield on 10-year Treasuries gained one basis point to 2.21 percent, the highest in almost a month. Germany’s 10-year yield advanced less than one basis point to 0.44 percent. Britain’s 10-year yield decreased less than one basis point to 1.31 percent, the first retreat in more than a week.

U.S. crude oil prices rose above $50 per barrel on Monday and were near last week’s multi-month highs as the number of U.S. rigs drilling for new production fell and refineries continued to restart after getting knocked out by Hurricane Harvey.  Talk of monetary tightening and a bounce in the dollar put gold on the defensive. The precious metal was off 0.4 percent at $1,314.43 an ounce.

Investors will be keeping a close eye on a speech by BOE Governor Mark Carney later on Monday. HSBC sees two more rate hikes by the BoE between now and the end of next year. Economic data include NAHB Housing Market Index for September. Houghton Mifflin and Steelcase are reporting earnings.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • European and Asian markets in the green
  • In FX, the greenback gains some ground
  • Looking ahead, highlights include BoE’s Carney and BoC’s Lane

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,503.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 382.00
  • MSCI Asia up 0.6% to 163.29
  • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 1.1% to 544.11
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 19,909.50
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,638.94
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.3% to 28,159.77
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,362.86
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 32,493.91
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5,720.60
  • Kospi up 1.4% to 2,418.21
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 0.428%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1926
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to 1.786%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 5.5 bps to 1.554%
  • Brent futures up 0.4% to $55.74/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,314.44
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 92.03

Top Overnight News

  • Inflation in the euro-area rose an annual 1.5% in Aug., matching the median economist forecast in a Bloomberg survey
  • The PBOC has drafted plans to allow foreign investors greater access to the country’s financial sector, including a proposal to give overseas firms control of their joint ventures in China, according to people familiar with the discussions
  • U.K. house prices grew at the slowest annual pace in more than five years this month as a slump in London weighed on the market
  • Base effects from energy and unprocessed food prices “will exert a strong impact on the projected path for headline HICP inflation in the coming quarters,” ECB says
  • The kiwi dollar has dropped whenever opinion polls show the main opposition Labour Party is ahead, while the currency jumped a full U.S. cent after a survey last week put the ruling National Party in the lead
  • AT&T-Time Warner Deal Said on Track to Win U.S. Nod by November
  • Trading Execution Prices Are Seen Plunging in MiFID Share Grab
  • Economists Boost Euro-Area Outlook, See Best Year in a Decade
  • U.K. Outlook Seen as Rosier as BOE Edges Closer to Rate Hike
  • Fingerprint Plunges After Warning Revenue Will Miss Estimates
  • S. Korea Says Additional N. Korea Missile, Nuke Tests Likely

Asia equity markets began the week strongly, with significant profits after last Friday’s gains in US, where all majors eked fresh record levels and the S&P 500 just about surmounted the 2500 level. This supported the Asia-Pac region and lifted ASX 200 (+0.4%) and KOSPI (+1.1%) from the get-go, with strength in financials front-running the sectors in Australia. Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) and Hang Seng (+1.0%) were also positive after better than expected lending data and a substantial liquidity injection of CNY 300bln by the PBoC, although gains across the region were somewhat contained with Japan away for holiday and ahead of key risk events including the FOMC this week. The PBOC is said to draft plan for foreign access to the finance sector. As reported over the weekend, Japanese PM Abe is reported to be considering dissolving the lower house for a snap election next month and informed the ruling coalition of his plans, with October 22nd seen as a likely date for the snap elections.  Chinese House Prices YY (Aug) 8.3% (Prev. 9.7%). Chinese House Prices increased M/M in 46 out of 70 cities (Prev. 56) and increased Y/Y in 68 out of 70 cities (Prev. 70). PBoC injected CNY 280bln via 7-day reverse repos and CNY 20bln via 28-day reverse repos, most since January: the People’s Bank of China added the most cash into financial system via open-market operations since January, as it seeks to ensure ample liquidity before end-quarter regulatory checks and a week-long holiday early next month.

Top Asian News

  • China PBOC Is Said to Draft Package for Financial Market Opening
  • Abe Says He’ll Decide on Snap Japan Election After Trip to U.S
  • Saudis Said to Weigh Raising Gasoline Prices by End- November
  • Chinese Online Insurer ZhongAn Starts $1.5 Billion Hong Kong IPO
  • Iron Ore Bears Push for Control as Futures Drop Near Bear Market
  • Qatar to Buy 24 Typhoon Jets to Beef Up U.K. Defense Partnership
  • BYD Extends Weekly Surge on China’s Plan to Boost Electric Autos

European equity markets trade in the green across the board, following the global price action, as the US saw fresh record levels once again, highlighted by the S&P 500, which closed above the 2500 level. All 10 sectors trade in the green, led by Telecoms, which outperformed in the US on Friday, trading up over 1% with Telecom Italia leading the FTSE MIB charge. BAE Systems are one of the outperformers in the UK, following news that they have secured a Typhoon fighter aircraft deal with Qatar which could be worth more than GBP 2bln. Portuguese yields underperform, following their rating upgrade curtesy of S&P on Friday. 10 y spreads trade more than 20bps tighter to Bunds, as such the 2y Portuguese yield now trades firmly in the negative (-0.09%). The European triple A’s continue to trade alongside the hawkish bank rhetoric with Bunds and Gilts trading around session lows.

Top European News

  • London Slumps as U.K. Sellers Raise Home Prices Least Since 2012
  • Portugal Bonds Lead Peripheral Rally on Sovereign Rating Upgrade
  • Natixis Unlikely to Buy AXA Investment Management Unit: JPMorgan
  • European Telco Rally Overdue, May Rotate Quickly: Deutsche Bank
  • ECB Sees Base Effect Affecting Inflation in the Coming Quarters

In currencies, the European morning has been dictated by the greenback, as the DXY has broken out of the overnight range. A push through 92.00 helped many of the dollars major pairs to see some volatility. USD/JPY trades at session highs, firmly back in Apr – Aug trading range, looking like a test of 114.00 is now possible. GBP/USD continues to struggle to break 1.36, however traders are likely to await Carney at 16:00BST. Sterling has seen some early choppy trade, with early week, Monday thin trade evident. Cable managed to spike through overnight highs, back through 1.36. However, trade quickly stalled, with pending offers pushing the pair back towards overnight lows, looking for a break of 1.3550.

In commodities, oil has seen an early bid amid no real fundamental news, WTI trades back through 50.00/bbl looking towards August’s 50.51 high. Another pending hurricane could cause continued Energy concerns, as Hurricane ‘Maria’ is forecast to become another Category 4. Precious metals continue to come off highs, as geopolitical concerns have dampened in the market with gold seemingly set to see another outside down day. A key tech level to watch will be the 1295 area, which behaved as resistance up until August 28th.

Looking at the day ahead, Monday starts with the final reading of the Eurozone’s August inflation, which printed largely as expected although there was some upside in core prints. Over in the US, there is the NAHB Housing market index and total net TIC flows for July. Also on Monday, US’s lead negotiator on the NAFTA talks will speak and lay out the US’s priorities. There are also other speakers, including: i) BOE’s governor Mark Carney giving a lecture at IMF’s headquarters, ii) Bank of Canada’s deputy governor Timothy Lane, iii) ECB’s supervisory board member Angeloni speaking at an Italian banking conference, as well as iv) Germany’s Merkel and EC President Juncker speaking at the 75th birthday of Germany’s longest serving finance minister.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 67, prior 68
  • 11am: BOE Governor Carney Speaks at IMF in Washington, DC
  • 4pm: Total Net TIC Flows, prior $7.7b
  • 4pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $34.4b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Mondays are the new Fridays. At least they are for me at the moment as being  back to work allows me to escape from the madhouse at home. One example sums this up. At the moment we put the feeding bottles and expressing units in the steriliser case and then in the microwave every 3 hours. This goes on at 1000 watts for 6 minutes. We have now done this nearly 200 times in the 3 weeks of having the twins. We do it on autopilot and can literally do it in our sleep which we frequently do. So yesterday morning I get home from walking Bronte with Maisie to find the microwave on and the contents of it splattering everywhere within in. It only had 5 seconds to run, I rushed to turn it off and found that my wife had put her porridge in it and on autopilot left it cooking for 6 minutes on 1000 watts. It was absolutely everywhere and glued to the sides. For someone who is very switched on this showed how tired she is. She had collapsed on the sofa. My poor wife never did get round to eating her breakfast as the twins then demanded to feed again.

This week will be dominated by 3 of the most powerful women in the world and I'm not talking about Daenerys Targaryen, Cersei Lannister and Sansa Stark. Instead we have our real world version with Mrs Yellen likely to announce the end of Fed reinvestment on Wednesday, Mrs Merkel firm favourite with the pollsters to see a big election win on Sunday and Mrs May set to outline her latest Brexit vision in Florence on Friday. Of the three, Mrs May's speech is currently the least predictable but after a big week for the UK last week (GBPUSD +2.98%, GBPEUR +3.75%, 10yr Gilts +32bps, and the November hike probability from 18.4% to 64.5% according to Bloomberg's calculator), Sterling assets are seeing some significant volatility at the moment.

Indeed bonds generally had a more difficult week than of late on the back of stronger than expected US and UK inflation, a hawkish shift from the BoE, a slightly less severe hurricane than feared in the US, and haven fatigue when it came to the still tense North Korean situation. Over the week, Gilts were clearly the underperformer with yields up c30bp across maturities (2Y: +27bp; 10Y +32bp). To be fair, other core bond yields were also up 6-15bp, with UST 10Y (2Y: +12bp; 10Y: +15bp), Bunds (2Y: +6bp; 10Y: +12bp) and French OATs (2Y: +7bp; 10Y: +9bp) all higher for the week. Peripheral bonds modestly outperformed, in particular Portugal where 10yr bond yields rose only 1bp for the week, likely supported by S&P’s upgrade of its sovereign credit rating back to investment grade.

Bonds will probably take a lot of their lead from the Fed this week. They have been signalling for some time that reinvestment tapering will be announced at this meeting (Wednesday) with our expectations being that it will start on October 1st. Mrs Yellen's press conference and how she steers markets on the chances of a December hike will arguably be more important as will the latest dot plot changes. For those who have missed it, DB’s Peter Hooper has detailed the team’s expectations, with particular focus on potential changes to the Fed's forecasts, rate expectations in the dot plot, and inflation narrative. He expects the Committee will signal, via its economic projections and in Yellen’s commentary during the press conference, that it still anticipates raising rates one more time this year so long as incoming data are supporting its projections for inflation and growth.

As for Mrs Merkel, assuming the polls are correct the main focus post the election will be on the composition of the coalition. This is the main area of uncertainty. The process normally takes 1-2 months but could take longer if negotiations are protracted.

Not to be outdone by that power trio, we also have Mr Trump's debut speech (Tuesday morning) at the big UN get together in NY this week. Whilst not likely to be immediately market moving, his view on both the UN and America's role in the world are clearly vital issues going forward.

This morning in Asia, markets have followed the positive lead from the US and are trading higher as we type. The Nikkei is closed for a holiday but the Kospi (+1.06%), Hang Seng (+1.01%), Chinese bourses (up c0.4%) and ASX 200 (+0.54%) are all higher.

Quickly recapping the market’s performance on last Friday. The S&P edged up 0.18% to another record new high, closing marginally above 2,500. Elsewhere, both the Dow and the Nasdaq rose c0.3%. Within the S&P, gains were led by the telco sector (+1.78%), partly offset by weakness in health care and discretionary consumer sectors. European markets were modestly weaker, with the Stoxx 600 and Dax down 0.28% and 0.17% respectively, but the FTSE fell more (-1.10%), likely impacted by the more hawkish BOE, stronger pound and concerns about the fresh terrorist event on the London Underground.

Moving to currencies, the US dollar index fell 0.27% following lower than expected August retail sales figures. Elsewhere, Sterling jumped for the second consecutive day, up 1.46% against the Greenback and 1.21% vs. the Euro. In commodities, WTI oil was broadly unchanged, while precious metals (Gold -0.72%; Silver -1.16%) and base metals (Copper -0.40%; Aluminium -0.70%) fell modestly.

Away from the markets, the BOE’s more hawkish message from Thursday was further reinforced by the usually dovish Gertjan Vlieghe (a member of the MPC), who in a speech on Friday said “The evolution of the data is increasingly suggesting that we are approaching the moment when bank rate may need to rise”. Elsewhere, the Centre for Economics and Business Research has upgraded the outlook for UK, now expecting economic growth of 1.6% (+0.3ppt) and 1.4% (+0.2ppt) in 2017 and 2018 respectively. The cause for the upgrade reflects a pickup in manufacturing and that the worst of the consumer spending squeeze has now passed.

Staying in the UK, British executives from 120 businesses have signed a letter urging PM Theresa May to seek a three year transition period after Brexit, warning that failure to secure sufficient time would jeopardize “our collective prosperity”. Turning back to North Korea, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson reiterated his preference for a diplomatic solution, he noted “if our diplomatic efforts fails… our military option will be the only left….but (let’s) be clear, we seek a peaceful solution to this”.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from Friday. In the US, macro data were overall slightly lower than expected. Headline August retail sales fell 0.2% mom (vs. +0.1%  expected), this coupled with some modest downward revisions has meant through year growth is now 3.5% yoy. Core retail sales (ex-auto and gas) were also weaker than expected, down 0.1% mom (vs. +0.3% expected). While part of the weakness may have been due to the impacts from Hurricane Harvey, the underlying picture is still likely a bit softer nonetheless. Moving along, the August IP was also below market at -0.9% mom (vs. +0.1% expected). Core manufacturing output was down 0.3% mom, but according to the Fed’s estimates, Hurricane Harvey subtracted c0.75pps from both headline and manufacturing output in August, so the underlying performance of the manufacturing sector looks a bit stronger this month. Even so, the overall weakness in IP, when combined with the retail sales report, means that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model of Q3 GDP growth was slashed by eight-tenths to 2.2% saar. Elsewhere, the empire manufacturing survey beat at 24.4 (vs. 18 expected) and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was also above market at 95.3 (vs. 95 expected).

Onto the week ahead now. Data wise Monday starts with the final reading of the Eurozone’s August inflation along with Italy’s trade balance. Over in the US, there is the NAHB Housing market index and total net TIC flows for July. Onto Tuesday, the Eurozone’s current account and construction output stats are due. There is also the ZEW survey on economic growth for Germany and the Eurozone. Over in the US, there are housing starts, building permits, current account balance and the import / export price index. Turning to Wednesday, Germany’s August PPI along with the Japanese trade balance and exports & imports stats will be out early in the morning. In the UK, there is the retail sales release for August. Over in the US, the main event is the FOMC rate decision along with data on MBA mortgage applications and existing home sales. For Thursday,Japan’s all industry activity index will be due early in the morning along with the BOJ policy rate decision later on. Then the Eurozone’s confidence index and ECB’s economic bulletin is also due. In the UK, data on the Finance loans for housing, private sector and public sector borrowing are due. Over in the US, there are numerous data, including: Conference board leading index, Philadelphia Fed business index, FHFA house price index, initial jobless claims and continuing claims. Finally on Friday, Japan will release data on the buying of Japanese bonds and stocks early in the morning. In France, there is the final reading of 2Q GDP and wages. Over in Canada, there is the August inflation and retail sales. Elsewhere, the Markit PMIs on services, manufacturing and Composite will be available for the US, Eurozone,Germany and France

Onto other events, on Monday, US’s lead negotiator on the NAFTA talks will speak and lay out the US’s priorities. There are also other speakers, including: i) BOE’s governor Mark Carney giving a lecture at IMF’s headquarters, ii) Bank of Canada’s deputy governor Timothy Lane, iii) ECB’s supervisory board member Angeloni speaking at an Italian banking conference, as well as iv) Germany’s Merkel and EC President Juncker speaking at the 75th birthday of Germany’s longest serving finance minister. Moving to Tuesday, there is the general debate of the UN general assembly and Germany’s Merkel will give a preelection interview to RTL television. Turning to Wednesday, there is the FOMC rate decision in the US, followed by Yellen’s speech at 14:30 EDT. Elsewhere, EU’s Chief Brexit negotiator Michael Barnier will speak and the OPEC’s panel of technical representatives will meet to discuss production cuts. Then onto Thursday, there is the BOJ rate decision. Back in Europe, the ECB’s Mario Draghi will give a welcome address at the European systemic risk board’s annual conference in Frankfurt and the ECB’s Frank Smets will also speak. Finally, on Friday, we have three Fed speakers, including John Williams, Esther George and Robert Kaplan. Over in Europe, the ECB’s Vice President Constancio will speak and the EU foreign ministers will also hold an informal meeting. In the UK, PM Theresa May will give her big speech updating her government’s position on Brexit.


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