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As Bitcoin Tops $8,200, Only 39% Of Survey Respondents Say It’s A Bubble

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Having first surged above $8000 overnight amid Zimbabwe's chaos, it appears uncertainty in the core of Europe has driven further demand for cryptocurrencu protection, sending Bitcoin to a new record high of $8247 – up 50% from the 'Bitcoin Cash' crash weekend lows.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

As CoinTelegraph reports, the latest milestone for Bitcoin, which came following news the first Bitcoin-to-Litecoin Lightning Network ‘atomic swap’ successfully debuted, caps its comeback after Bitcoin Cash volatility.

BTC currently has a market cap of almost $134 bln against a cross-crypto combined cap of just under $240 bln, both numbers representing new records.

Bitcoin’s dominance has also recovered over the past few days to top 56 percent of the market after struggling to maintain supremacy as BCH caused considerable fluctuations.

BCH itself has come down off previous highs to languish around $1,200 – around 50 percent of its best prices. Staunch proponents of the Bitcoin fork as the ‘real Bitcoin’ are currently locked in a forking battle of their own as two strands of BCH emerged last week.

The product of a “malicious fork,” Bitcoin Clashic now represents the original Bitcoin Cash or developers describe it, “Satoshi’s true vision.”

As major supporter Roger Ver’s Bitcoin.com continues to point new users towards BCH, however, the Bitcoin community is coming out in increasing support of naive newcomers potentially unaware that BCH is not in fact Bitcoin.

Welcome to Bitcoin, newcomers! Here's your FAQ:

Q: Who should I trust?

A: Nobody.

Q: When should I sell?

A: Never.

Q: Is Bitcoin dying because ____?

A: No.

Q: What have I gotten myself into?

A: Nobody knows.

Q: How do I learn more?

A: https://t.co/POqNimM4uy

— Jameson Lopp (@lopp) November 19, 2017

For once the rest of the crypto space is not being sold to fund Bitcoin buys…

“The inflation in this thing is massive,” Luke Hickmore, a senior investment manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments in London, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.

“When will it collapse? Who knows. It will cause a lot of pain.”

But there are some traders who are noting the worrying divergence between price action and volume in the latest surge

“I find it remarkable and somewhat frightening how, no matter how much Bitcoin is pummelled by sellers, it simply bounces back even stronger,” said Lukman Otunuga, an analyst at currency brokerage ForexTime Ltd.

“Will bitcoin hit $10,000 before year end? This is the question every investor is asking.”

A recent survey by Nicholas Colas at DataTrek Reserach, done in conjunction with Triad Securities Corp…

The results of our bitcoin survey are in! We got over 300 responses, and there are three key takeaways from the data.

First, less than half of respondents (39%) think bitcoin is a bubble.

Second, there are still plenty of fence sitters, with more individuals who have considered a purchase than already invested.

Lastly, the median estimate for where bitcoin will end the year is below where it trades today ($7,800). Apparently Santa Claus rallies haven’t reached the crypto currency world just yet.

Here is a summary of the results and our comments:

Question: Where will bitcoin close the year (2017)?

  • Average response: $7,381
  • Median response: $7,800
  • Standard Deviation of Responses: $2,555

Our comments: As expected, we had a wide range of responses here.Overall, the wisdom of this particular crowd says bitcoin may be range-bound through the end of the year. Still, with a standard deviation of $2,500, it could top $10,000 or drop close to $5,000 and still be within one sigma of the distribution.

Question: Where is bitcoin going?

  • This is a bubble – it must crash: 39.4%
  • Continue to rise at a much slower pace: 27.1%
  • Value doubles in the next 6 months or sooner: 16.4%
  • Don’t know/no opinion: 17.0%

Our comments: we were surprised the bubble response was less than 40% given widespread commentary in that direction and the age/experience of the respondents. By age, at least, our survey takers has seen their fair share of bubbles. We were ready to see +70% responses indicate bitcoin’s price is unsustainable. Less than 40% is, well, remarkable.

“Have you ever bought bitcoin or other crypto currencies?”

  • Yes, but only in the last 6 months: 14.5%
  • Yes, and I have been involved for +6 months: 16.7%
  • No, never: 30.9%
  • No, but I have considered it: 36.3%
  • No, and I am unfamiliar with bitcoin/cryptos: 1.6%

Our comments: there are still plenty of fence sitters here, with those who have considered purchasing (36%) outnumbering those that have bought (31%). The big question is if they are waiting for a pullback, or further gains?

“Would you ever see bitcoin as a safe haven similar to gold?”

  • Yes: 40.7%
  • No: 42.9%
  • Don’t know, no opinion: 16.4%

Our comments: this may be the most surprising finding of the survey. Even with widely reported wallet hacks and other systematic challenges, 41% of respondents think bitcoin can become something akin to gold as an investment safe haven.

Do you see bitcoin as a hedge against monetary policy?

  • Yes: 39.1%
  • No: 43.2%
  • Don’t know/no opinion: 17.7%

Our comments: almost as surprising as the gold question, these responses show a sizeable minority believe bitcoin’s algorithm-driven limited supply can act as a non-correlated buffer against central bank policy.

Have you ever participated in an Initial Coin Offering or looked at such opportunities?

  • Yes, and I have invested: 7.9%
  • No, but I have considered investing: 29.0%
  • No, and I won’t without more regulation: 14.8%
  • No, and I have not looked at these offerings: 48.3%

Our comments: over a third of respondents have looked at or invested in ICOs. Not bad for a fund raising approach that is just a few years old. And over half might consider ICOs if/when the regulatory framework improves.

If you look at ICOs, how do you assess these opportunities?

  • The three most popular answers, in order: Founders/Key Employees, Total Addressable Market, and Sector Addressed
  • Less popular: Token type, Deal Pricing and Time to Market

Our comments: no surprise here, with ICO investors looking at exactly the same issues as venture capitalists.

What is your level of confidence in current bitcoin custodial offerings?

  • High: 9.1%
  • Medium: 29.7%
  • Low: 25.9%
  • Don’t know/no opinion: 30.0%
  • I prefer traditional custodians: 5.4%

Our comments: this is a critical issue for institutional investors. In order for crypto currencies to achieve true “Asset class” status, investor confidence in custodial solutions has to improve.

What is your level of confidence in crypto asset liquidity?

  • High: 7.9%
  • Medium: 39.7%
  • Low: 31.2%
  • Don’t know/no opinion: 21.1%

Our comments: same thoughts here as the previous point. While respondents may feel marginally better about crypto liquidity, over half rate their confidence here as low or they just don’t know enough to judge.

Our final thoughts on the data presented:

  • Institutional investors are taking bitcoin/cryptos seriously. If you’ve ever run an in-depth survey, you know getting 300 responses is difficult. The fact that we got even more shows there is tremendous interest in bitcoin and crypto currencies.
  • Initial Coin Offerings are getting real attention as well. Investors already understand the due diligence process here – it is the same as venture-stage investing. Custody and liquidity across the crypto space do need to improve, however.
  • A sizeable minority of respondents (39 – 40%) see bitcoin as a potential analog to physical gold, both as a safe haven and a hedge against mistakes in central bank monetary policy. Until blockchain technology becomes more widespread, that is probably the best way to consider buyers’ motivation for bitcoin.

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