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‘Gold is in a Bear Leg..with an $1800 Target’

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

originally posted by the Soren K. Group on marketslant.com

Moor Report Summary:

If the title confuses you, do not be fooled. There is a short term outlook, that can change from day to day, an intermediate outlook that can change week to week, and a long term one. This changes month to month And they are not contradictory.

  • Short Term -  refers to daily outlooks here. It is choppy with repeated failures to pierce $1300. This calls for trading counter trend with a downward bias intraday Sell rallies, buy dips…. in that order.
  • Intermediate Term- We do not like trading week to week and have no feel for this time frame. To us, if the short term makes money, then take it home and see if it continues intermediate term.
  • Long Term- Buy it, buy it again, and keep buying it unleveraged with money you do not need for current cash flow or expenses; and hold it for 12 to 18 months with a target of $1700 plus. The only thing to  consider is if you buy more on any dip above $1245 (Fund  Finder level) then $1229 (Moor Level) and $1192, (from VBS). Then decide if you add on a break  above $1338. The macro is lined up. We seek the micro to start the ball rolling to add or pare positions.

Slow Rally Kills Shorts

We are in a limbo area right now, where a short term bull leg is triggered with a decisive penetration above $1294.50. And any settlement below $1292.20 is a short term bear leg. Accumulators buy while shorters seek weakness to push lower. Physical  accumulators  do not chase. It is the shorts who will ignite this if it is to accelerate  to the upside. We'd  prefer a slow melt up to $1338 so no hot money buys, and shorts can delude themselves

Michael's analysis echoes what we see longer  term. Specifically, in 9-12 months he sees an upward  move bringing us to $1400 minimum,  and over $1800 maximum. This all happens as long as the market withstands any pressure down to $1229.

Our own  analysis remains unviolated adn fully intact. Funds are buying dips above the  12 month moving average, Volatility in the short term is starting to percolate, and long term volatility is flatlining. The low long term volatility implies the next move in Gold is not to be faded if  accompanied by  newly expanding long term volatility.

Simply put:

  1. SKG Fund Finder: Patient Long above the 12 month MA with a sell stop on a  monthly settlement below $1245
  2. Moor Analytics: Traditional Analysis says a long bias is in order with the ability to swing trade in either direction as described in the levels below
  3. Echobay's VBS Macro: Explosive volatility on a move above $1338 or below $1192 in either direction. implying a $200 move in either direction if triggered

SKG Fund Finder – the 12 month MA said to buy in July/August on a settlement above the yellow line. Our refinement says now is when to buy based on line slope and risk /reward

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Moor Analytics Weekly

GC (G)

On a short-term basis:

I cautioned that an area of possible exhaustion for the move up from 12628 came in at 13077-81. We rejected $43.9 from this, but this is now on hold. The trade above 12896 (-1 tic (10 cents) per/hour) put us above a small formation that projects this upward $5.5 minimum, $14.5 (+) maximum. We have seen $9.4 of this so far. This will come in at 12881 (-1 tic (10 cents) per/hour starting at 6:00pm). If we break back below, look for profit taking to come in. The trade above 12925 brought in $6.5 of the strength warned about above before rolling over. Decent trade below 12792 (+.3 of a tic (3 cents) per/hour starting at 6:00pm) will project this downward $20 minimum, $24 (+) maximum; but if we break below here decently and back above decently, look for decent short covering to come in. A maintained gap lower tomorrow will leave a short term bearish reversal intact above that will warn of decent pressure, likely for days. Trade above 12990 is a sign of renewed strength.

On a macro basis:

We broke above a well-formed macro line in the week of 8/7 that came in at 12629. The break above here projects this upward $174 minimum, $493 (+) maximum—the maximum to be attained likely within 9-12 months. This line comes in at 12294 this week, and rolls into (G). This is off hold, or you could wait for a decent break above the 12947-54 area mentioned below for added confirmation. Within that we rallied up to a macro resistance line on 9/11 at 13522 that I said we are looking for a multi-week smackdown from-- we were seeing some of this as we have come off $89.4, but this is on hold. We left a medium term bearish reversal intact above on 9/18 that also warned of continued pressure in the days/weeks ahead. We have seen $48 so far. This too is on hold. Within the bearishness I noted that a possible area of exhaustion for this move down from 13624 comes in at 12732-644. We basically held this, but with a $1.6 violation, and rallied to 13084 before rolling over and rejecting from it again. Decent trade below 12682 will project this downward $31 minimum, $97 (+) maximum based off a well-formed formation. Decent trade above 12950 will project this upward $23 minimum, $47 (+) maximum based off an ‘ok formed’ formation; but if we break above here decently and back below decently, look for decent profit taking to come in.

Email Michael for subscription info : Michael Moor

 

VBS MACRO

Volatility Cycles more cleanly than price. it could stay low for months, but is far less likely to give false  signals. 

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In Gold and Silver, we use 1.5 STD on BBands and relationships not shown here between historical and implied that corroborate or negate a signal- SK

Good Luck

Dear Readers:

"Day job" obligations are making it difficult to expend resources toward writing original pieces consistently. We do not have a Soren K. site but wish to continue writing. To do so we will need to incur expenses. Marketslant is kind to post our work and the work of others here. We hope to be setting up a Soren K. Group Patreon page in the next weeks to continue giving our original work, as well as proprietary research for Precious Metals traders. Anytng offered will be greatly appreciated. 

We  also hope to do the following for readers

  1. weekly settlement price competition for token prizes – Silver Eagles etc.
  2. opportunity to guest post under SKG and on zerohedge where we write and  post under Vince Lanci's Blog
  3. Ability to  place  your own editorials on Kitco if they accept as relevant to the market. 

Finally we are in the process of raising capital for a fund and are speaking to seeders in that pursuit. Between our SKG members we have  65 years trading experience in PM, Energy, and Equities. Among our group are algo writers, analysts, $BB Fund partners, lawyers, Wall Street bank executives, and other complementary minds. Trade ideas we execute when up and running will be shared with site Patrons as investors permit. 

If you have an opinion, interest or wish to write please contact us at

Sorenk@marketslant.com


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Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!