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Why Worry Wednesday – The Fed Will Save Us Every Time

Bubbles, bubbles, everywhere.  

BitCoin has passed tulips in 1637 as the biggest bubble that ever existed.  The S&P bubble (see yesterday's post) is only up 300% in 8 years – hardly a blip on a chart where BitCoins (/XBT) is now up 6,500% in 3 years.  Amazingly, it was only two weeks ago when I said "We Will All Be Billionaires" if the markets keep growing at this pace yet the pace most certainly has continued, with our Money Talk portfolio (see yesterday) hitting +80% in yesterday's trading.  

There were no changes and no adjustments – just the same 4 positions going from +70% to +80% in two weeks while BitCoin went from $11,200 to $18,000 (+69%) and our GreenCoins went from 0.000220 to 0.000812 (+269%) before crashing back down to 0.000305 as we reminded people not to be greedy and take profits in yesterday's Live Member Chat Room.  Of course the whole thing is ridiculous, but it's a ridiculous thing we can play with – so why not?

We're still accepting GreenCoins (GRE) as payment for 2018 Annual Memberships during the month of December at 0.00044 so, if you can buy them for 0.000300, you're getting a 25% discount at the moment but I'd offer 0.000200 – as those lows are still filling if you are patient.  That gives you a 50% discount on Annual Memberships so, assuming you wanted an Annual Membership anyway, it's a free way to go through the process of playing the cryto market and, if you get lucky, GRE pops again and you can sell them for 4x, which pays for the Membership (2x) and leaves you 2x in your pocket as well!

Image result for bitcoin milestonesSee how easy it is to make money in America – we just make everyone rich on a weekly basis – what could possibly go wrong?  Two weeks ago, if you bought a BitCoin for $11,200 to exchange for GreenCoins (that's how small cryptos work, they trade in BitCoins) and you waited until they were back at 0.00022 on the 8th, your BitCoin was at $20,000 and you only needed 22.7M GreenCoins for a Premium Membership, which is only $4,994 but then the GreenCoins hit 0.001 so, instead of giving them to us, you cash them out for $22,700 and pay for the Membership with $9,995 cash and then you are left with $27,111, which is a $16,511 (147%) profit in two weeks AND a free PSW Premium Annual Membership – you're welcome!  

This is all, of course, RIDICULOUS as money isn't supposed to appear out of thin air – no matter how perfect your market timing because SOMEONE, SOMEWHERE has to be taking perfectly good money and transferring it to you through their own idiotic decisions (like buying and holding BitCoin without taking anything off the table).  Of course, you have to be smart enough to cash out or all you have are paper gains, which can vanish as quickly as they came.  

On December 1st, BitCoin was at $10,000 and let's keep in mind there are only 21M BitCoins in the World and 4M may be "lost" so 17M yet there are 8Bn people in the World and even the top 0.1% (1/1,000th) of them are 8M very rich people.  In the US, the Top 0.1% have over $2M of ANNUAL Income, averaging $4M and that doesn't include the incomes of the the Top 0.01% (1/10,000), who make $27M/yr on average.  

Image result for bitcoin $20,000Now, how many people do you know who have a BitCoin or two?  You know me, I've got 2.  I know dozens of guys who have 2-20 of the things and that's AFTER me screaming for them to take some off the table.  I don't even know 10,000 people so it's very easy to imagine that just 1 out of 1,000 (8M) of the World's wealthiest people holding just a few BitCoins each would suck up the entire global supply.  

And THAT is what's causing the bubble.  Like a hard to get toy on Christmas, there is simply not enough supply of BitCoins to meet the demand and the people who have them aren't selling as they are dreaming of getting $100,000 a piece for their digital currencies and we have projected $40,000 being a possible top if the Government doesn't shut it down first.

The thing is, it's all an illusion because only 4,127 BitCoins were traded on the Futures on their first day and volume dropped the 2nd day (today is day 3) and that's only 0.0196% of the coins (1/5,000th).  So now we're talking about 1/1,000 people on the planet Earth owning a BitCoin and only 1/5,000th of them made a transaction so it's 1 out of 5M people who are setting the prices for BitCoins and there's a seller who only needs to find one idiot out of 5M people to pay a premium for his coin and the price keeps rising.

When the price keeps rising, more idiots come off the sidelines (and these are rich idiots, so don't worry about them) and they pay more for the next coin and so on and so on.  But that's not even the end of it, because you must buy a BitCoin to buy the other CryptoCurrencies, so even people who don't really want a BitCoin are forced to buy some at the day's price.  Each time one person pays $100 more Dollars for a single BitCoin, the "value" of all 21M BitCoins goes up $100 or $2.1Bn – just because some idiot pays $18,300 instead of $18,200.  

4,127 idiots in a day spending $75M on BitCoins sent the price up on Monday from $15,000 to $18,500, a gain of $3,500 that was then applied to the other 20,995,873 stagnant coins, giving them a "gain" of $73.5 BILLION – that's 1,000/1 leverage of money coming in to a single coin and the APPARENT wealth effect on Millions of BitCoin holders.  This is not real – it's an ILLUSION created by the scarcity of the product and the low level of transactions.  

Imagine what would happen if, for example, 40,000 people tried to sell a BitCoin instead of 4,127?  THAT is when we will have some price discovery and the same thing is true in the broader markets, where a combination of low volume and lack of selling (on expectations of better tax rates next year) has pushed the market much higher in December as well.  To the same extent that you understand why BitCoin pricing may be just a ridiculous illusion - the same is true of the stock indexes, which couldn't possibly be worth 40% more than they were last year just because US Corporations are getting a tax cut. 

And, as I noted yesterday, I could have told you the same thing about the value of Yahoo and other Dot Com stocks as they passed $100 in 1998 but that didn't stop Yahoo from making lots of people rich as it hit $300 in 1999 but it was back below $30 a year later and died a slow death, agonizing death over the next 20 years but that was considered a winner compared to what happened to most of the other over-hyped companies at the time.  

Fortunes are made AND lost in these kinds of markets and we're playing along and having some fun but never lose site of the fact that it is just fun and we're not taking any of this seriously and we ALWAYS have one hand firmly on the exits – ALWAYS!  

Meanwhile, we got a surprising dip in Core CPI – dropping to 0.1% and giving the Fed an excuse to possibly hold off on raising rates or, if they do, then they have an excuse to say they are taking further increases very slowly.  Headline CPI was 0.4%, as expected with rising Gasoline prices but the Core CPI pretends the average American doesn't use energy – or eat food and, for them, inflation is just 0.1%.

Image result for fed funds rateWe'll see what the Fed does today (2pm) during our Live Trading Webinar (1pm, EST) but I agree with Jim Grant, who says that historically low interest rates are distorting the perception of investors.  As noted by Grant: "Interest rates are prices. In fact, they are the most consequential prices in a market economy because they discount future cash flows and they help us to set investment hurdles and to measure financial risks. In short, interest rates are prices and prices convey information and distorted prices convey misinformation."

Everything is so happy now. Every market is up and the economy worldwide is starting to appear more vibrant. All this seems as if it cannot be improved upon. So at best, these radical monetary policies have postponed the tough decisions to bring unprofitable firms into profitability and to restore government finances to something resembling balance.

In many parts of the economy there is more leverage than before the financial crisis. So I think it’s wrong to judge these experiments in radical monetary policy in terms of success until we’ve seen the other side of the cycle and until we have seen the consequences of the balance sheets that we collectively have built up over the past ten years.

In other words, please, be careful out there!  

 


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  1. Good morning all!

    Join us for our LIVE weekly webinar, today at 1pm, here:

    http://philstockworld.enterthemeeting.com/m/XJ8DMJ9U


  2. FNSR

    ~~   Apple awards Finisar (FSNR +21%) $390 mln from its advanced manufacturing fund for VCSEL production..

    The award will enable Finisar (FNSR +21%) to exponentially increase its R&D spending and high-volume production of vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers (VCSELs). VCSELs power some of Apple's most popular new features, including Face ID, Animoji and Portrait mode selfies made possible with the iPhone X TrueDepth camera, as well as the proximity-sensing capabilities of AirPods.
     


  3. CTL -Two more directors bought total of 40,000 shares.   And this huge purchase by Mason Hawkins of Southeastern Asset Management.

    ~~Mason Hawkins 2017-12-08 New Buy 11.05% Premium Member Access $14.67 $ 15.70 7% 71,604,936


  4. Woohooo, go FNSR!


  5. Good Morning.


  6. Phil- Question on UNG and rolling these out and your thoughts on adjustments or DD. I have the following positions. Long 10- Jan ‘19 4 calls average cost is $3.88. Long 20- Jan ‘19 5 calls average cost is $1.85. Short 10- Jan ‘18 7 puts sold for .98



  7. Phil/Everyone/FTR

    It was probably discussed somewhere over the last week, butoIs there an optimal strategy for dealing with the short calls sold that will likely be assigned, like those 2020 $5 calls?  Let the shares be taken and start over, roll up, or buy back and wait to see what happens?  Thanks.


  8. God has spoken and apparently she doesn't want a pedophile in the Senate!

    Dems should now ask that the tax cut bill vote be delayed until Doug Jones is seated because a senator in his last month in office like the current AL senator should not be able to decide such important cases. Fair is fair…


  9. China could not break bitcoin:

    https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609320/can-china-contain-bitcoin/

    Bitcoin presents China with the same challenge that the Internet once did. The Chinese government was initially suspicious of the Web, because letting it in would mean relinquishing some degree of control. But Beijing ultimately decided that keeping the Internet out would be worse, since that would cut China off from the global economy. The dilemma posed by Bitcoin has one key difference: it’s way too late to isolate China from the rest of the world. “Bitcoin cannot be forbidden in China,” says BTCC’s Zhao. “As long as there is one cable available from China to the outside, then Bitcoin will survive.”

    That means for now, Bitcoin has passed the China test. “Bitcoin itself did not break after China banned it,” Lee says. The virtual currency has delivered on its promise that it could not be defeated by any government, even one as powerful as China’s. Or, as Lee puts it, “Every time you try to whack Bitcoin and it doesn’t die, it becomes stronger.”


  10. CTL – I don't believe that huge purchase by Mason Hawkins was all a new buy, although it was indicated as a new buy on GuruFocus..  They previously owned about 35 million shares.  I suspect this is a statement of their current position.  They mentioned on their recent webcast that they had been buying more, and that it was their largest position.


  11. S P was down over 6 points last night after election.  Bad for Republicans now good for market?  All news in good in the brave new world.


  12. Baron 2  FTR  Just take it that after tomorrow thw stock will be max 9.40 or less So if your caller is more or deeper than .60 ITM from today;s asking price some one will call for the div. sake. So you can sell the stock today and buy back the caller or you can roll the caller out of danger. I have for instands the My 8 caller where they want 2.15 for meaning 8.00 plus 2.15 = 10.15 minus .60 = 9.55. So they can call me!!!!


  13. That Tulip bubble drove one company to the highest valuation ever:

    http://www.visualcapitalist.com/most-valuable-companies-all-time/

    Dutch East India Company compared


  14. Wonder if there is a sales pitch to get your Greencoin on their list of 50?  

    Is Bitcoin the only supported payment method?

    Pay with 50+ cryptocurrencies on OpenBazaar: BitcoinEthereumLitecoinZcashDash, etc. Seller receives payment in Bitcoin 

     

     


  15. Yodi/FTR

    The 8's are one thing, its the 5's that are the problem


  16. Baron well you need the same calculation 5 +5.50 = 10.50 -.60 = 9.90 So would you like to sit with the stock tomorrow for 9.90 or for 9.55 ? If you are so positive may be and may be the stock will go up tomorrow. I dought it.


  17. Yodi/FTR

    So basically  you think get out, forego the div., and wait to see where it goes from here.


  18. Baron the matter has been discussed before and the general feelin is the price will at least drop in relation to the div. I still left with stock even after assignment. But I lost so much on this sucker that a few extra $ will not make any difference any more. Sorry to be that negative.


  19. Of course it will drop.  In fact, I think it will drop more as I see mostly funds selling into this pre-dividend rise.  But I haven't made any money on it since mostly what I had was sold calls, few puts, not expecting this huge run-up.  So I'd still like the chance to make some money back selling the high volitility.  So I was thinking of rolling up to the near term, like May or July 8 or 9's figuring what is the worst that can happen – I get called away even again.


  20. Dec 15 is a witching day again. I wish to give you, for whatever it is worth to you, my thoughts on the cherry calls which needs rolling. Today and tomorrow I let the caller get as close to zero extrinsic value as possible. I do believe and expect a dip somewhat next year. So I roll my cherry calls one two and even three month out as close to the money as possible, so on many I still land up with a credit. In case of a dip these callers will all look sweet to me. However in case that sky is the limit next year, I just have to roll the cherries again. Just my approach and not for everyone.


  21. Baron sometimes you can not have the cake and eat it. With rolling you always will pay the piper today!


  22. Will SVXY ever go down again?


  23. Today you will pay for the caller the max!!!


  24. Just waiting for you to capitulate, StJ… lol


  25. As one can see today every one seems to be buying stock, must be the clown's birthday or what.


  26. Good morning!

    Futures popping right up at the open – just madness.  Check out the Nas since 8am:

    They are leading the pack at the moment and the Dow is lagging and needs to pop 24,600.  Can we finish the year at 25,000?  Maybe even the week?  

    UNG/Calch – Seems very messy and I hope you sold some short calls at some point.  UNG is at $5.35 and the 2019 $4s are $1.65 and the $5s are $1 and the short Jan puts are way in the money.  Keep in mind that buying naked calls (or puts) is a suckers game – it's exactly what we try to teach people NOT to do at PSW.  Bottom line is you lost about $4,000 on the calls so there's no "fix" to this thing – it's just a matter of whether or not you want to continue being long Nat Gas to try to make $4,000 back.  

    As a new trade for UNG, looking to make $5,000, I'd go with the following:

    • Sell 40 2020 $5 puts for 0.80 ($3,200)
    • Buy 60 2020 $5 calls for $1.45 ($8,700) 
    • Sell 60 2020 $7 calls for 0.70 ($4,200) 

    That's net $1,300 on the $12,000 spread and, while you are waiting, you can sell 20 (1/3) April $6 calls for 0.25 ($500) as picking up $500 per quarter will drop your net to $0 in less than a year.  

    In your case, you are already down $4,000 on the puts so down $8,000(ish) total (assuming no calls were sold) and this spread does give you back that and 50% more if all goes well.  Downside is still owing 4,000 UNG at $5 ($20,000) but you're on the hook for 1,000 shares for $10,000 now – so not much worse off, I think.

    FTR/Baron – $10.36 today!  Unless you want to add more to the position, there's not much to do.  It depends what calls you sold and for how much, of course, but let's say you have our LTP position, which was:

    And our call in the last Review was:

    • FNSR – We got more aggressive last month and now we're being punished.  May as well take advantage and roll our 20 2019 $23 calls at $3.10 ($6,300) to 40 of the 2020 $17 ($6.50)/25 ($3.80) bull call spreads at $2.70 ($10,800) and one day we will sell short calls too.  Not that we need to but we can also roll the 10 short 2019 $25 puts at $7.50 ($7,500) to 20 short 2020 $20 puts at $5.30 ($10,600).  That's net about $1,000 for our changes and we're in a $32,000 spread for net/net about $14,000.  
    • FTR – Can't not DD here.  Let's buy 6,000 more at $6.95 ($41,700) and sell 50 of the 2020 $8 calls for $1.10 ($5,500) so we're 1/2 covered with an average cost of $9.56 (and possibly assigned 4,000 more at $10 on the puts side).  If all goes well though, we'll collect $2.16 in dividends so, by the time we get to 2020, our net will be down to $7.40 and then we'll roll the short calls and all will be well (hopefully).

    I included FNSR since it was next to it, in case people were wondering where we left them.  

    Anyway, so with FTR, we had 10,000 shares and we sold 50 (1/2) 2020 $8 calls for $1.10 because we really believed in FTR and the short calls helped pay for the DD without assuming too much more risk (since the non-believers were freaking out at the time).  So now the short 2020 $8s are $2.80 and FTR is at $10.37 so we don't really care if half our position is called away as we still get dividends on 1/2 and we're effectively cashing out for $10.80, which is like cashing now and getting an 0.43 dividend too!  

    If we just had 5,000 FTR and fully covered them (possibly because the non-stop stream of FU's made us feel like it was a mistake to hold on, rather than sticking to our trading plan) then we could add 20 of the 2020 $5 calls for $5.30 ($10,600) and roll the 50 2020 $8 calls at $2.80 ($1,400) to 70 $12 calls at $1.90 ($13,300) and that would ensure nothing gets called away on dividends for net $11,300 but the dividend is only $3,000 so you are risking $8,300 on a stock that's almost certain to pull back at least 0.60, which is another $3,000 so it's back to a matter of faith as FTR will still have a rocky ride going forward.

    Delay/StJ – Good luck with that. That only counts for Democratic Presidents in their last 18 months of office picking Supreme Court judges, apparently.  

    All news/Baron – Now you are catching on!  

    OpenBazaar/Grass – Oh there's lots of ways, including sending them traffic or good old cash payments.  We're evaluating what will give us the best bang for the buck with GRE.

    SVXY/StJ – The VIX hasn't moved much all year (just stays low) but SVXY goes up and up and up.


  27. SVXY / Phil – They suffer from reverse decay because of the way futures are structured it seems. That's why I say that it's going for infinity eventually. There will be major drawdowns in between but that will only be buying opportunities. I hope that they keep that instrument forever…


  28. Phil/FTR

    I had the OPP position with the 2020 $5 calls.


  29. Phil, what would you expect if Yellen doesn't raise rates today? What if it's half a point? Just wondering…


  30. Here my final on FTR I sold all free stock for 10.10 and left sufficent stock to cover the May 8 caller.


  31. Cannot fail to notice that GE has dropped its div to 2.69 %. Possible now is a good time to sell the stock and convert the cash in all BCS, to make up for the stock loss. Your thoughts Phil ???? You used that trick many years ago with HOV, if you remember.


  32. Phil

     

    Based on the article you see any trades on MLP

    Bank On U.S. Natural Gas Growth With High Yield MLPs – Up To 13.7%

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4131013-bank-u-s-natural-gas-growth-high-yield-mlps-13_7-percent?app=1&uprof=11&isDirectRoadblock=falseThanks

    Thanks


  33. Form yesterday's comments: jelutuck is right. Yobit is not an open market because they haven't synced the GRE wallet in over a year (I have no idea why). This means they are trading in a closed market where people are buying and selling only the coins already held on the exchange back and forth to each other (and apparently buyers don't know about the other exchange? weird). Coinexchange.io is the only open market and it shows a 1/2 satoshi bid/ask so that is the correct price. Coinmarketcap has a weighted algorithm that takes both exchanges and multiples the price by the the pro rata % of the 24-hour volume, so when coinexchange volume is light the incorrect price at yobit weights those big "gains" that get reported which you can see as spikes in the chart here.

    Latch / coinbase  - I've never had a problem with bank transfers going back to 2014. They have grown way too fast though so undoubtedly huge scaling issues are in play here. Their hiring page is longer than Ikea book shelf instructions.


  34. Wow, Jones elected to the Senate and markets roaring up! The "market" loves ineffectual government – if they can't "do anything" this is another way of saying they can't "screw anything up."


  35. Crypto crept up to a shade over $0.5T total over night. Looks like were not using "$B" anymore. Congrats to ETH buyers, now $730.

    https://coinmarketcap.com


  36. BDC, thanks for backing me up on this. The Coinmarketcap price for GRE is FAKE! and in reality GRE has basically hovered around 2 satoshi with the occassional blip up when Phil mentions it.  I hope we can promote it to get it to be worth something, but to talk about it doubling and tripling is very misleading as it is impossible to sell it for those prices.


  37. Phil any thoughts on GNC?


  38. TEVA WTF!


  39. Well I'll just continue to talk to myself in here… 

    The mention of tulip bulbs is interesting to me because interesting the concept of comparison may be deepluy flawed. "Tulip mania" was described in a popular book 200 years after it occurred to which wiki has to say "Mackay claims that many such investors were ruined by the fall in prices, and Dutch commerce suffered a severe shock. Although Mackay's book is a classic, his account is contested. Many modern scholars feel that the mania was not as extraordinary as Mackay described and argue that not enough price data are available to prove that a tulip bulb bubble actually occurred"

    Tulipmania is probably very much an apocryphal  account "often used metaphorically to refer to any large economic bubble when asset prices deviate from intrinsic values."

    My posting tries to describe just what an "intrinsic value" for crypto might be. I was excoriated for suggesting that crypto cannot be compared to metrics used to value stocks, since they are not stocks, or currencies, since they are not currencies, but in fact this "new thing" that has curious aspects of both of the former, couple with a new internet-based system of trust that didn't exist before it was created, and this new value does not have a known upside.

    I might be completely full of shit, and might be completely wrong looking forward but I'v been somewhat right, even if for the wrong reasons until now. But when I hear "tulips" I immediately move on. What grasp on solid fundamental reason and accountability to comparing a modern event to an children's fairy tale have to do with discussing the reality of money in a dynamic, changing, modern era?


  40. Jabob

    ~~TEVA (15.45 -6.48%): Expected to unveil massive restructuring plan tomorrow, according to Calcalist.


  41. albo—why is that bad news? 


  42. BDC for what it's worth I agree… but I'm still not gonna touch crypto. I will cheer none the less if it brings death and destruction to the money changers!


  43. Bio, you might talking to yourself but I'm reading.  Thanks.


  44. "This is all, of course, RIDICULOUS as money isn't supposed to appear out of thin air –"

    Well now, isn't that exactly what the Fed does? 


  45. BDC's "where does the value come from" Cheat Sheet:

    Above ground gold = all physical currency = ~$8T. Gold very accurately approximates this market throughout history. Hence their equivalence, which is not a coincidence.

    Worldwide real estate = gov't debt (fiat) = ~$220T. Modern fiat is much newer than gold but is the worldwide standard and has a solid, if short, history throughout the manufacturing economy maturation and current decline. Currency is created by nation-states that use a central bank and fractional reserve currency (mostly lent as mortgages) based on laws alone (no "backing" like gold), authority to tax, and exclusivity (can't be counterfeited without consequences).

    Crypto = Global Knowledge Economy (now approximated by derivatives) = $1.5-5Q (or higher???)


  46. TEVA

    12-Dec-17 07:22 ET

    TEVA

    Teva Pharma shares slip 2% in early trade amid reports it may look to refinance its debt early next year  (16.44)

     

     

    11-Dec-17 12:19 ET

    MYL

    Mylan N.V. announces that Teva (TEVA) has dismissed its pending district court litigation against Mylan regarding Mylan's Glatiramer Acetate Injection 40 mg/mL, the first generic version of Copaxone 40 mg/mL  (39.13 +0.46)

    The litigation involved two non-Orange Book listed patents, U.S. Patent Nos. 9,155,775 and 9,763,993, relating to the final sterile filtration step in the manufacturing process for glatiramer acetate products.

    Teva dropped litigation on these patents after the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware issued a decision adopting Mylan's interpretation of the patents' claims.

    In addition, Teva has agreed to withdraw the Irish equivalent to these patents from the recently filed proceeding in Ireland.

    After the dismissals, Teva's only remaining patent challenges in the U.S. and Ireland against Mylan's Glatiramer Acetate Injection 40mg/mL relate to the three-times-a-week dosing regimen, which Mylan has already successfully invalidated at the U.S. District Court for Delaware, the U.S. Patent Trial and Appeal Board and the United Kingdom's High Court of Justice. Teva is appealing these decisions.

     

    11-Dec-17 10:49 ET

    IBB

    FDA head Scott Gottlieb favors generic drugs to combat high drug prices, according to FT  (106.11)

    FT Article (Note: In early October, FDA confirmed it is pursuing ways to streamline the generics drug review process. Related Stocks: PRGO, TEVA, MYL, VRX, IPXL, MNK, ENDP, LCI, AKRX).

     

    11-Dec-17 09:15 ET

    TEVA

    Teva Pharma announces launch of generic Viagra tablets in the United States  (16.06)

     

     

    08-Dec-17 10:52 ET

    TEVA

    Teva Pharma considering eliminating 10K jobs, according to Bloomberg  (15.65 +0.64)

    Bloomberg Article


  47. TEVA news all over since Dec 7, but TEVA being bought since before then (3rd week Nov).  So most news good, some not so good, some who knows.  But basically good, and today, maybe some profit taking.


  48. Phil,

    There should be massive rolling pressure on /CL this month. See any opportunities? 


  49. ~~Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. announced that it will issue a press release on its restructuring plan and additional measures to improve its business and financial performance on Thursday, December 14, 2017 at 7:00 a.m. ET. Following the release, Teva will conduct a conference call and live webcast on the same day, at 8:00 a.m. ET.

    * In order to participate, please dial the following numbers (at least 10
      minutes before the scheduled start time): United States 1-866-869-2321;
      Canada 1-866-766-8269 or International +44(0) 203 0095710; passcode: 3888788.
      For a list of other international toll-free numbers, click here.


  50. Den – With Jones victory, maybe there is hope that the current republican tax plan will be rejected. We only need two republicans to stop the madness.

    Phil – Two righteous men?   Good luck!  ????

    You looking for this???  Good luck there.


  51. Phil – Well, maybe in 2020?  On the bright side, Menendez beat the rap (mistrial)!   Flake is out but how likely is AZ to vote Democrat? 

    Much like finding the honest man, the above is likely to occur when hell freezes over.


  52. Phil – See how easy it is to make money in America – we just make everyone rich on a weekly basis – what could possibly go wrong?  This is all, of course, RIDICULOUS as money isn't supposed to appear out of thin air…

    Muck - Well now, isn't that exactly what the Fed does? 

    Ex nihilo, the manna from heaven that the central and commercial banksters live for.


  53. Grant – interest rates are prices and prices convey information and distorted prices convey misinformation

    Interest rates are the price of loan funds. When that price is distorted to ZIRP it means one thing, demand for loan funds is like the price, very very low.  If demand was high, bankers would raise the rate, its what they live for. 

    Further, current economic conditions and future expectations are much like the price, very very low and in the case of NIRP, negative.  For further elaboration, see Rates and Economic Decline? and What is Money?


  54. Muck – I will cheer none the less if it brings death and destruction to the money changers!

    And he flipped over the tables and destroyed the marketplace in the temple, where the money changers were double ending every deal and said…

    Is it not written, 'My house shall be called a house of prayer for all the nations'? But you have turned it into a den of thieves!

    This and Out.


  55. Shucks, I love getting Naybob all riled up :)

    Think i'll have an IV.


  56. Cryptocoins:

    One thing that most CCs has is that conversion to fiat is done having BTC as the base, so if Bitcoin increases 20% a lot of the jungle of CCs also increase its value, having as the only merit that.

    So if Bitcoin crashes, most of the others will surely follow simply because the exchange rate is "tied "to BTC


  57. Muck – "Shucks, I love getting Naybob all riled up :) Think i'll have an IV."

    Captain? Captain?


  58. Wild Turkey. You are what you eat! (or drink)


  59. The Nattering Naybob 

    I enjoy your comments

    This is for you for the holiday, enjoy

    After Ever After (Jon Cozart Disney Cover)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbHDkOmIB0Q



  60. Muck – "Wild Turkey. You are what you eat! (or drink)"

    Respect the dirty bird or fear the kickin' chicken… what was that bird gobblin? Austin Nichols Baby!!!


  61. Phil,

    Did you make any adjustments to your futures positions or waiting for Fed?


  62. QC – Thank you for the kind words and gift.  That video works for me, most excellent, Pocahontas loved those winter blankets indeed.  Out.


  63. Albo/FTR

    Ok, after what you and Phil had to say, I got rid of it all in my IRA, and will let them assign it in my taxable account.  Probably should have let them assign in the IRA too, not sure my spread on the sale of the stock and buying back the calls worked out that well.


  64. Vote delay / Phil – There you go:

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/doug-jones-alabama-tax-bill-mcconnell-schumer

    In the wake of a stunning upset victory Tuesday night by Democrat Doug Jones in deep-red Alabama, Senate Democrats are demanding that Republicans “hit pause” on their fast-track tax bill—delaying a vote until Jones is sworn in so that the voters of Alabama are fully represented.

    “It would be wrong for Senate Republicans to jam through this tax bill without giving the duly elected senator from Alabama the opportunity to cast his vote,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY)  told reporters Wednesday morning.


  65. RSI on the Dow was in the 80's earlier, currently 81


  66. sustained tick readings of -600


  67. And also:

    In laying out their demand for a delay, Schumer and other Democrats referenced what happened in 2010, when then-Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) won a special election following the death of Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA). Brown successfully demanded to be sworn in a week earlier than originally scheduled, and the Senate—then led by Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)—delayed a final vote on the Affordable Care Act until Brown was seated.

    Dems are just nice in general…


  68. advill/crashing – absolutely, they are tied at the hip

    1979 book – I think the major "crashes" are currency related at their core. certainly it was in 1929 (stock market crash) was really currency criss that lasted until thru 1933. Banks didn't have any money and the bank runs were happening regularly. This i a consequence of a new market ecosystem (stocks and real estate) overtaking the existing currency ecosystem (gold currency) which has been largely deprecated by the new economy (manufacturing versus distributed agrarian). 

    the 2008 crash could've been a lot worse since fiat currency and mortgages are closely tied. Did derivatives it (as opposed to helping cause it, as conventional wisdom believes)? Bear Sterns evaporated in a weekend. This was setting up to be Bad Squared. 

    Interesting with crypto it is an accelerating flight INTO a new type of "currency" which is exactly the opposite of a currency crisis and why it feels so "different." Through this prism it makes a crisis (price crash), while certainly always possible, look less likely than other consequences – limited availability to incoming flight capital for example – what would this look like? These are the questions where I seek answers to make future predictions.


  69. Baron – You meant Yodi instead of me on FTR.

    FWIW – I'm long some FTR and short some 10 December calls.  Wouldn't be surprised to see FTR back off below 10 this afternoon.  Either way, I'm staying pat. 


  70. SVXY/StJ – Selling the short-term puts works like a charm. 

    FTR/Baron – Did you do the adjustment?

    FTR – This is a tough one as we're miles down but they are going to pay an 0.60 dividend on Dec $14th and that's 10% of the stock price so it's silly not to double down and buy 2,000 more shares for $6.73 ($13,460) and we'll sell 20 of the 2020 $5 calls for $1.90 ($3,800) so that plus the $1,200 we collect on this quarter's dividend means our 2,000 new shares are costing net $8,460 or $4.23/share.  That being the case, we may as well sell 20 of the 2020 $4 puts for $2 ($4,000) and roll the 20 short 2019 $10 puts ($6) to 40 short 2020 $4 puts (60 total).   That drops our net on the new 2,000 shares to $2.23 and we make 100% if called away at $5 and, if they keep paying a $2.40 annual dividend (doubt it) that would be like collecting 27% per quarter in dividends. 

    In that case, we still had 2,000 open shares, so the same 1/2 cover and I'd lock in gains by covering the other 2,000 now with the 2020 $8 calls and letting the new 2,000 get called away for $5 since the main reason to DD was because we were worried FTR was going lower and now it bounced back, so no more worry there.  The same logic applies, you can get more aggressive but we already sold the put for $2 so your net on the new $2,000 was just $2.83 and getting called away at $5 is a $2.17 profit in less than a month – not sure what more you expect out of a trade…

    Effectively, if you get called away and your basis was $15 on the uncovered $2,000, this lowers it by $2.17 to $12.83 and you have 60 2020 $4 puts so, if FTR goes lower, then you have 8,000 shares at $6.21 avg and, if FTR goes higher, then you keep getting your 0.60 dividends and you are even by the end of this year and profitable after that and THEN you can worry about rolling the 20 short 2020 $8 calls.  

    Fed/Mkucs – I think a bigger raise will spook the markets but it's not likely after that CPI report.  No sign of wage pressure either.  If they don't raise rates, the Dollar will drop and that will support the market a bit but, on the whole, I don't see it being a huge boost though Dow 25,000 is so close.

    GE/Yodi – The difference is HOV had exciting premiums to sell.  With GE, for $17.85, you give up an 0.48 dividend and you can sell the 2020 $18 puts for $2.10 and buy the $18 ($2.75)/$22 ($1.30) bull call spread for $1.45 and that's net 0.65 credit so your net entry would be $17.35, not much different than buying the stock so not a big deal to play.  You could sell the $15 puts for $1.20 and drop the net entry in exchange for the credit but still only $4 potential upside and a bit less downside risk.  The low VIX makes these trades a lot less fun. 

    MLPs/QC – Why pick one when you can just go with LNG, who are doing half the exporting?   We liked them at $40 but $48 not too terrible and you can sell the 2020 $42.50 puts for $5.50 and buy the 2020 $42.50 ($13.50)/$52.50 ($7.50) bull call spread at $6 for net 0.50 on the $10 spread.  If you bought 10 of those for $500, you could sell 3 of the Jan $47.50 calls for $1.85 ($555) and that's just 37 days out of 765 you have to sell so paying yourself an almost monthly dividend of 100% on your cash while you wait to see if you get 20x returns.  Seems more exciting than trying to pick an MLP winner just to get a 13% dividend…

    That's a good one for the Watch List!  

    GRE/BDC – Thanks for clarifying.  

    GRE/Jet – Well Greg will take them at an 0.00044 exchange rate as a Membership payment so at least you have that outlet for now.  Biggest transaction today was someone buying 4,239,507 GreenCoins for 0.08479 BitCoins which, at $18,000 is $1,526 seems like 0.00036 to me.  CoinMarketcap says GRE is at 0.00038.  

    GNC/Torquio – Nothing new, just waiting to see what they announce re. restructuring debt but that's going to probably be when they announce next earnings (2/15ish).

    TEVA/Jabob – Pretty much the same restructuring noises that have been going on all month, while it's climbed 35%.  I guess it would be nice if they never, ever pulled back and every day was green but, if you want that, you should buy BitCoins or DIA – not real stocks.   

    TEVA WTF!

    TEVA WTF???

    TEVA tease.. DANGIT!

    TEVA down 4% dangit! 

    M WTF? 

    TEVA, FTR, M, GE, GNC none of them seem to want to let the others win the POS FU stock of the year award.

     

    So, you can continue to be a deer in the headlights or learn to go with the flow on these things.  As noted on GNC in our last review (11/22):

    • GNC – Keep in mind here we are in for net $2.70 unless the stock is under $7.50 in which case we own 12,000 at a $5.10 avg but, either way, we're in the money at $6.45 and it's great for a new trade as the paper loss is gigantic – despite the fact that it's "on track".  
    • GE – NOW we think it's the bottom (waited last month).  Let's buy another 2,000 shares at $18.30 and buy back the 20 short 2019 $25 calls at 0.37 and sell 20 2020 $18 calls for $3.25 so the net cost of our new 2,000 is $15.42.  We have 20 short 2019 $28 puts at $9.80 ($19,600) and let's roll those to 25 short 2020 $25 puts at $7.35 ($18,375).  
    • M – $20 is a great floor and we're well-positioned. 
    • TEVA – Now the 2020s are out so we can roll our 30 2019 $17.50 calls at $1.95 ($5,850) to 40 of the 2020 $12.50 ($5)/20 ($2.50) bull call spread at $2.50 ($10,000) and we'll roll our 30 short 2019 $25 puts at $11.70 ($35,100) to 30 short 2019 $20 puts at $8 ($24,000).  As we initially collected $28,500 on the short puts, our net credit becomes $17,400 or $5.80 per contract so our break-even becomes $14.20.

    Tulips/BDC – Well anything that happened 400 years ago is going to be tricky to document.    I suppose you could compare BitCoins to gold back in 2010, when people lost faith in money and it went from $200 to $4,000 before collapsing.

    Image result for gold bubble

    I'm sure you'll say this time is different because it's a new paradigm, etc. but, at the moment, I'd rather buy /YM or hold onto my 10 /SI longs ($122.74) than own a BitCoin for $18,000.  We can benchmark that and see how things go.  My /SI longs are using $57K in margin so call it 3 BitCoins worth. 

    Fed/Mkucs – Yes, it is what they do but they are entrusted to do it with restraint and, failing to do so, they risk devaluing the currency.  It is necessary to grow the money supply to reflect the growing economy or Dollars would now be worth at least $15.88 (an ounce of silver).  

    Related image

    /CL/Japar – It's been way too tricky to call.  Without an obvious toppy move, I can't get interested in playing it.  $58.50 has been a reliable top, of course and any break below $57.50 is shortable – same line we've been playing since early November but below $57.50 is too iffy for me.

    Oh yeah, we forgot about today's report:

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude -5.1M barrels vs. -3.8M consensus, -5.6M last week.
    • Gasoline +5.7M barrels vs. +2.5M consensus, +6.8M last week.
    • Distillates -1.4M barrels vs. +1.0M consensus, +1.7M last week.
    • Futures +0.23% to $57.27.

    Build in /RB is a big concern and net/net, not much of a draw.  

    Futures/Japar – No, they are essentially where I want them.  

    Delay/StJ – Well they could ask but I doubt the GOP will see it that way.  

    Crypto/BDC – But you do see that, if we had real, limited supplies of currency – that a crash like we had in 2008 would destroy the global economy.  Without the Fudge Factor of the Central Banksters – a major correction like that would run BitCoins up as much as the markets and housing go down, transferring massive amounts of wealth from non-holders to holders and, since the crypto holders don't employ the non-holders – there would be no way for them to earn it back without taking massive pay cuts and selling their stuff for far less than they paid for it.  

    Go silver!  Already I'm outperforming BitCoin, which si down to $17,200 now.  


  71. I'm so glad I'm an "idiot" going back 5 years now. But that's just me.

    Really sour and unbecoming language IMO, though.


  72. BDC / Alt Crypto platform-

    Do you like any sites other than Bittrex for alt coins like Solarcoin, Energycoin, etc?  I set up a Bittrex account but they are now requiring my passport or driver's license to actually trade.  Thx


  73. Phil FTR possible losed you on the stock purches of 6.73 when the stock is selling for 10.20 today.

    Are you talking of the past?


  74. yes things bubble, but gold is still around, the NASDAQ is still around, so it's sort of like, you're argument defeats itself. Sure things bubble, so that makes crypto/bitcoin exactly the same, not "you'll tell me this time how it's different," so let me make my own arguments and you don't need to make them for me. And while we are at it, remember that "idiots" make all sorts of logical errors. For example, I'm an "idiot" because I realize fiat currency is a SYSTEM OF TRUST. It isn't actually anything that's like, a "real thing." How unbelievable in my mind anyone could see it any other way. When someone says new money "cannot be created out of thin air" is a strange statement, since this is exactly how the system works. YOU JUST HAPPEN TO TRUST IT. So when a system comes out that is a MORE EFFICIENT SYSTEM OF TRUST, that's interesting. I never said it would be big, just that it COULD be big, and I said it while I bought this unit based system at $8 in 2012 and I'll say the same thing now.

    See how that works? I'm price agnostic and you're not. The rest is a backward looking tale of "when to sell" which is 100% wrong unless you are looking in the rearview mirror like selling bitcoin at $700 in 2014, for example.

    Also, BTC does NOT need to be bought to buy other coins, coinbase directly offers LTC and ETH and bitter and colonies and others have cash accounting and offer all of their coins on the exchange in USD markets.


  75. Phil – "Yes, it is what they do but they are entrusted to do it with restraint and, failing to do so, they risk devaluing the currency.  It is necessary to grow the money supply to reflect the growing economy or Dollars would now be worth at least $15.88 (an ounce of silver).  "

    Debauch is what they exist for, this is how they confiscate your income and wealth, or rob you blind while you sleep. At the beginning of a cycle, the CB's engage in a race to the bottom. To give a non dollar example: In 1959, the French Franc was worth 2.5% of its 1934 value (97.5% debauch over 25 years). In 1960, the NEW French Franc was introduced and the old Franc was revalued at 100 old francs per new franc (100% debauch, in one day).  The old one and two franc pieces were allowed to circulate as centimes or PENNIES. When the euro replaced the NEW franc on 1 January 1999, the NEW franc had become worth less than an eighth of its original 1960 value (87.5% debauch, over 40 years). Just as a 1910 US Dollar is now worth $25; or a 2015 US Dollar is worth 4 centimes of a 1910 dollar (96% debauch, over 105 years).  Think about the scope of debauchery involved over the scale of years (generations) and frogs in the pot come to mind. Repeat after me, there is no inflation, now sleep little froggy and Out.


  76. Bittrex – they are US based so that adds some security in my mind which is why I continue to mention them for trading alts. This requires them to be hyper-sensitive to AML/KYC because gov't regs haven't condensed around this new pace yet so they need to be over-prepared (just IMO). This cuts both ways though because if a hack-job russian site goes down and you had your coins stored there – you're toast. 

    https://bittrex.com/home/about

    If you're goal in crypto is to remain completely anonymous I'm really not your guy, this has never really appealed to me, but personally I don't do drugs and I pay taxes on worldwide income by default (and for crypto it is long term capital gains, so best rate in the world, 20% max!!!) so the Tor/Onion side of crypto was never really interesting. It was interesting to "haters" that could point to dark money uses as the whole reason to shoot it down, as if drug users/dealers don't actually favor cash, hahaha, what a total joke that argument was. Anyway, there's a whole deep web on this subject, using distributed exchanges like openledger.io, transferring everything to Zcash before turning back into some other coin, etc. 


  77. I don't have any bitcoins but my brother has 25 at an avg cost of 3600, he has a ton of LTC and ETH and is up about 500k in the last 4 months a little over a 100k investment.  He begged me to buy 1BTC for my daughter at 4k for college.  I didn't.  Stupid because the risk is still small, the most I could've lost is 4k and that's if it went to 0 which is wasn't going to.  Seeing how many crypto hedge funds are being set up and knowing that just now the public is getting very curious about BTC and people want to say they have one or part of one, I think BTC will be in the mid 20's soon.  There are also a lot of people that won't buy now but are waiting for some kind of dip or crash, so then the question becomes, how far down will it go before new money brings it right back up.  And many people are not selling it because you can't just trade a bunch of BTC's  and buy them right back like a stock.  So they are huddling them.  I still won't buy one because of the volatility but I do think it goes higher.  Of course I can be dead wrong.


  78. nattering – the system is designed to inflate. That's actually what saves it in a way, as gold can't inflate. Neither can bitcoin, but ah, it can, did you know bitcoin has 3 forks already? Oh, and there's 1237 other coins in existence… Being able to inflate is a necessity. As the universe of goods and services gets bigger, so does the currency system to support that specific market economy. The unit values are totally irrelevant (except to the individual "Accumulating" them), the maket size could care less if there's 1.00000000 units divisible into 0.0000000001 or whatever, versus 1,000,000,000,000,000 units divisible to 0.01. Currency units are completely meaningless at a macro-economic level, only to the individual hoarding/using the currency in trade from peer to peer, is where units matter. 

    Now where have I heard of a new system that has an arbitrary, finite (and irrelevant) amount of total units that trades among peers that determine the unit value amongst themselves? It feels very familiar…   


  79. Webinar time? 


  80. Bittrex / BDC- I dont need complete anonymity, just wasnt comfortable giving them my passport info, 


  81. Phil- starting live chat?


  82. BDC – your not an idiot, it is a system of trust, a confidence game. The confidence people have in their beliefs can never be taken as a measure of the quality of evidence.  Those beliefs are only a measure of the coherence of the story that the mind has managed to construct. If needful things believe, then it is so, and needful things can be easily led or misled. 

    Times of fast change and transition breed uncertainty, think of when I was just a little younger, the gold rush.  When rapid change occurs, and that does not have to be technological, such as war, revolution, political upheaval, there is a sense of unease and fear in the air. 

    The talking monkeys need to believe, and embrace that which can explain their world, is as pervasive as it is strong.  Look at Musk, he doesn't force, threaten or steal.  Making his investors complicit in their own undoing, as they give him money willingly. 

    The oldest con in the book is selling hope, redemption and salvation. Its what houses of worship are built upon. Needful things indeed, Leland Gaunt Out.


  83. Sorry guys, totally thought it was 12:15, not 1:15! 


  84. ~~Unionized workers across all sectors of Israeli economy to strike on Sunday in response to planned layoffs by Teva, Avi Nissenkorn, chairman of Israel’s labor union, says in Tel Aviv press conference.

    * Teva board and management responsible for co.’s dire situation, not workers
    who are being treated as "numbers"
    * Teva board has strategy to leave Israel; co. is abandoning vision of founders
    * Nissenkorn expects Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to intervene and find a
    better solution to Teva’s problems


  85. WIN – Sold 1/2 the position I put on last week, up 12%.


  86. Phil – Sorry guys, totally thought it was 12:15, not 1:15! 

    Oh Phil isn't it fun when this happens?  Time for my IV


  87. BDC – sure inflation is part of the game, just depends on how much distortion is applied. 

    Phil masterfully started today with all the idiotic things that are going on.  When John DeLorean had to keep his fledgling car company alive, interest rates and sensibilities were a bit higher.  Today, Musk doesn't need to score a huge amount of cocaine to keep his con going.  Like Phil intimated, and Larry Summers wrote with regard to efficient markets and regulators, "THERE ARE IDIOTS. Look around".  Back to my IV, enjoy the webinar.


  88. Phil – And one last thing, let me expand upon Grant, viz. the price of loan funds and the self reinforcing distortions it can create. Just think about the bond float (QE) and the affect central bank buying has had on price and yield (NIRP, ZIRP).  

    Then add another layer on this central bankers shitcake…  the diversion and perversion of capital – misallocation due to the disintermediation created by all these artificial ingredients QE, IOER, ZIRP, NIRP.  How so?

    Had normal price discovery and liquidity preference been in effect, and had lending by the banks not been discouraged by squeezed NIM's and those very liquidity preferences, along with lowered demand for those funds, would that money be sequestered in a massive bond, equity and RE bubble?

    Or would it be actually working towards economic production or real GDP growth?  No need for an econo moron, because a child or anyone with their wits about them can answer that one. When true price discovery is obscured, one can count on this…

    What would normally be an accurate econometric or market signal, has been corrupted, so its bad data.   We all know what happens to control when field data is not accurate, GIGO viz. like the stock monkey revising projections with his darts, CPI inflation, GDP growth, all of it, not worth the paper its printed on. So how in the hell do you steer the ship with blinders on?

    Nobody can guide or control anything in this world with faulty instrumentation readings. In this case, we can blame falsity: in economic doctrine, econometrics and MSM happy daze narrative designed to "anchor the expectations" of the unsuspecting electorate and populace.  The blind leading the blind, or Helen Keller would be a better and trustworthy Fed head than any we have had.  

    At the end of the day, there is something more than natural in this. This witches brew created liquidity preferences which reward non GDP investment vs real GDP investment.  In effect encouraging economically and socially detrimental behavior in individuals, institutions and markets.

    Now that's what we call distortion in a signal and worshiping false profits as a result.  But if you want to believe, it's Saul Goodman, the ice in my IV is melting and Out.


  89. LOL!  I was so proud of myself for being ahead of schedule and then I realized it was an hour later than I thought it was…

    Cashed out of /SI during the webinar at about $16.05 avg – very pleased.  

    Now I just need /NG and /KC to do that.  

    Sour/BDC – Because I don't agree with you?  I'm sorry but I feel BitCoin is way overdone and if you feel the need to preach for people to get in on my site and talk about Quadrillion Dollar markets for Bitcoin – I'm going to be obligated to counterprogram a bit – otherwise I'll feel complicit in leading people into chasing a ridiculous bubble asset.  And I wasn't calling you an idiot, I call people who are buying BitCoins NOW, at $18,000 idiots because now it is ridiculous.  

    Passport/EMike – There was a lawyer on Bloomberg and she said they have an easier time tracking criminal exchanges on BitCoin than they do with Dollars.  People think it's anonymous but it's not at all – all the transactions can be traced through exchanges if that's what people use. 

    FTR/Yodi – Yes, when we doubled down it was $6.85 and we sold 2020 $8 calls for $2.10 so net $4.75 on the new shares in the LTP and not at all likely to be called away as there's still 0.70 premium in them and, if we do – so what?  

    Other coins/BDC – True, now they have several that can be traded.  Not sure why they can't all be traded for Dollars though, that would make things much easier.  I guess CoinBase gets two transaction fees per small coin that way.  

    BitCoins/Rustle – If they survive this leg, they can easily double and I'll be tempted to buy some back at $10K with tight stops below but I still think it makes more sense to spread money around on smaller coins that are catching on – as they are far more likely to go 10x.

    Rewards/Naybob – Good point.


  90. call it a no stick day… maybe a sick day?


  91. A bit of a sell-off into the close.  S&P ends up down?  

    Strange finish but clearly the Fed didn't do anything exciting enough to keep things going..


  92. How rude, right? XLF down 1.24%… 


  93. Just in case you think it's not a bubble:


  94. Hope he isn't saying "come sit on my lap"


  95. Es tu Warren?


  96.  Donald Trump  "unfit to clean toilets" in President Barack Obama's presidential library.

    What a burn. Yes, but tell us what you really think…  ROFLMAO


  97. I think Donny would prefer some fake news.


  98. I thought that it was an appropriate description Mkucs! These USA Today guys not mincing words…


  99. And back in the People's House, continuing their war on the middle class:

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/house-committee-passes-gop-bill-cutting-student-loan-subsidies

    But committee chairwoman Virginia Foxx, a North Carolina Republican, said the legislation “delivers the serious reforms needed to empower students and families to achieve an essential part of the American dream: earning a high-quality education, finding a good-paying job, and living a successful life.”

    Did she means the banker's families?

    The bill would eliminate the interest subsidy on loans for students while they are in college. The American Council of Education estimates the change would affect 6 million students and that would have the effect of increasing students’ interest payments by 45 percent for a four-year degree and 87 percent for a four-year degree followed by a master’s program.


  100. Maybe people will soon realize how bad of deal this tax cut is:

    http://prospect.org/article/trump-lamented-loss-oreo-jobs-mexico-his-tax-bill-could-make-more-jobs-go-south

    Meanwhile, the Republican tax plan that Trump has sold as a tremendous deal for the middle class might actually encourage companies to move their domestic operations—and jobs—abroad. One provision in the tax plan would establish a “territorial” system for taxing foreign profits, which would make it much easier for corporations to avoid international taxation and could actually spur companies to move operations abroad.

    Kimberly Clausing, an economics professor at Reed College, writes: “Unlike the present system, which taxes companies on their foreign income once it is repatriated to the United States, a territorial tax system exempts foreign income from U.S. taxation. This tilts the playing field even further toward doing business abroad rather than at home, since there will always be countries with lower rates. A territorial system makes explicit, and permanent, the preference for foreign income over domestic income. It also accelerates the profit shifting behind our corporate tax base erosion problem. That is hardly an ‘America first’ policy.”

    But probably only after they lose their jobs, pension and health insurance.


  101. But we do have endless wars and a booming arms business, those create jobs…


  102. GLUU- reaching for that $5 line once again. 


  103. Next false flag, fake alien attack? Wild stuff but well presented and… it wouldn't surprise me. Worth watching, interesting perspective and cast of interviews. It's not just for crazy people anymore.

    Unacknowledged Trailer https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMnPKVbgH60

    Full directors cut

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOerDO3p55c&t=6s&list=FL3YAkb2GUs0lumdI3Qe7uZg&index=6

    One of the most watched movies on Netflix too.


  104. Watching the Netflix version now, totally different, great stuff!


  105. rustle it's fun other people are actually buying/selling. A year ago I couldn't;t talk to anyone about crypto except theoretically.

    Phil – that's why we have greencoin, basically 0.01 pennies each, can't go wrong there! (well, you can still lose 100%, but it doesn't feel as bad because the numbers are small)

    Actually, discussing GreenCoin on this site is very interesting. It essentially is a micro currency almost completely owned by PSW: they are the only vendor and near as I can tell the members are the only traders. I think we could learn a lot by studying how this evolves because we know it well.



  106. Republican civil war erupts anew


  107. Trump’s E.P.A. Chemical Safety Nominee Withdraws






  108. Good morning! 

    BOE kept rates on hold but Dollar flat at 93.  Waiting on ECB decision.   Futures up a bit but off the highs.  Europe is down half a point so not sure what we're so excited about.  Dow hit 24,700 over night, now 24,680.  

    Glad we didn't go long /RB!

    I think /CL can be played long over $56.50 with tight stops below and /RB over $1.65 with tight stops below now.  

    I like /NG at $2.66 but it doesn't like me!  

    Thirsty giraffe pattern on silver, hoping for a dip to get back in.

    Coffee needs to perk up.

    If ECB stays easy then Dollar likely to pop so I do like /DX long over 93 with tight stops below.

    Aliens/Mkucs – Hopefully aliens will invade and take over before the GOP passes this tax bill!  Seems like there's no other way to stop them.