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  1. phil

    You know things are crazy when:

    Notice the main difference between the OOP and the LTP is the hedge and the hedge, as it's supposed to, is costing us about 25% of our profits.  

    In the LTP, we still have so much cash that that's essentially our hedge – the willingness to DD and adjust any position as we have ample buying power to do so while, in the OOP, we might not be as comfortable pressing our positions in a sharp correction (are these 15 stocks going to be our whole portfolio if we are forced to DD on all of them?).  

    • "Aflac (NYSE:AFL) has exploited workers, manipulated its accounting, and deceived shareholders and customers, according to nine former employees," reports David Dayen at The Intercept.
    • The story is based on interviews with current and former employees, as well as three lawsuits, says Doyen, with the lawsuits already leading to a number of regulatory investigations. Management and the board, says Doyen, have known about the issues for more than a year, but have disclosed little-to-nothing to shareholders.
    • Shares down 3.15% in active early trading.
    • December Consumer Price Index+0.1% in-line with consensus, +0.4% prior.
    • Core CPI +0.3% vs. +0.2% expected, +0.1% prior.
    • Core CPI +1.8% Y/Y vs. +1.7% expected, +1.7% prior.
    • Core CPI rose 0.3% in December vs 0.2% expected. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI is up 1.8% vs. 1.7% in November.
    • The news has helped send yields back on the rise, with the two-year Treasury yield topping 2% for the first time since September 2008. One year ago at this time, it was just north of 1% – there's been three rate hikes since.
    • Short term rate markets a short time ago had been pricing in just two rate hikes in 2018. Following some very hawkish comments from outgoing FBRNY President Dudley yesterday and this morning's CPI, they may want to skip pricing in three, and just go to four.
    • December Retail Sales+0.4% M/M vs. +0.5% expected. The reading for October was revised up to a 0.9% gain.
    • Ex-autos: +0.4% M/M vs. +0.4% expected, +0.8% prior
    • Control group +0.3% M/M vs. +0.3% expected.
    • Retail sales tracked higher in December, with nine out of twelve categories posted positive growth. A slight miss from the consensus economist estimate was probably offset by the upward revision in the tally for November retail sales.
    • On a year-over-year comparison, the categories showing the biggest pop in December were furniture/home furnishings (+9.9%), building materials/garden equipment (+9.9%) and nonstore retailers (+12.7%).
    • December marked the fourth consecutive month of positive retail sales.
    • The month saw a good showing for restaurants, with sales up 0.7% M/M and 4.2% Y/Y. Department store sales lagged (-1.1% M/M, +0.5% Y/Y) during the crucial holiday month.
    • Q4 net income of $6.2B or $1.16 per share vs. $5.3B and $0.96 a year ago. This year's quarter, however, was boosted by $3.35B or $0.67 per share after-tax from the tax bill, as well as an $848M or $0.11 per share pretax gain from the sale of the Wells Fargo Insurance. Offsetting was a $3.25B or $0.59 per share pretax litigation charge. Adding it all up sounds like a miss vs. non-GAAP estimates for $1.06. Revenue of $22.1B was light by $240M as well.
    • Net interest margin of 2.84% slips two basis points from Q3, and three from a year ago. The decline is attributable to one-time effects from the tax law.
    • As for taxes, the bank's full-year 2017 tax rate was 18.1%, and it's expected to be 19% in 2018.
    • Loan growth looks like it's returned, with year-end total loans of $956.8B down $11B from a year ago, but up $5B from Q3 (first quarterly rise this year).
    • Net loan charge-offs of $751M or 0.31% of all loans vs. $717M and 0.30% in Q3. Total NPAs of $647M vs. $512M.
    • Checking retail banking, average deposits of $738.1B were up about $3.5B for the quarter and about $28B for the year. Primary consumer checking account customers edged higher on a Y/Y basis. Debit card POS purchase volume up 6% Y/Y; credit card purchase volume also up 6%. Home lending originations of $53B fell $6B during quarter.
    • Conference call at 10 ET
    • Quarterly supplement
    • WFC -1.8% premarket
    • JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) in Q4 booked a $143M mark-to-market loss in its equities unit on a margin loan to an unidentified customer. That loss turned what would have been a 12% Y/Y rise in equities revenue to a flat quarter.
    • Bloomberg is reporting that client as troubled South African retailer Steinhoff, whose stock plunged in early December after disclosing accounting issues.
    • Concerned more with underlying trends in the bank's business, Hedgeye bull Josh Steiner is liking what he sees, noting overall revenue growth was up Q4 vs. Q3 despite a plunge in FICC revenue. Loan growth was higher as well, as was NIM, which rose to 2.42% vs. 2.37% a quarter ago, and 2.22% a year ago.
    • Shares are currently flat in active premarket trading.
    • Previously: JPMorgan tops estimates even as trading revenue tumbles (Jan. 12)

    • Vail Resorts (NYSE:MTN) updates on ski season metrics.
    • The company reports season-to-date total lift ticket revenue at North American mountain resorts was up 1.6% through Jan. 7.
    • Season-to-date ski school revenue was down 4.5% and dining revenue was down 8.7% compared to the year-ago period.
    • Retail/rental revenue for North American resort store locations was down 11.5% Y/Y.
    • CEO update: "Given the truly historic low snowfall across our western U.S. resorts, we are pleased with our results to date, which reflect the stability provided by our season pass program and the investments we have made in our resorts. The 2017/2018 ski season had a very challenging start across our western U.S. resorts due to poor conditions in the early season that continued through the holiday period, reducing both local and destination visitation and spending."
    • Snowfall season to date in Vail, Beaver Creek and Park City was the lowest level recorded in over 30 years.
    • Source: Press Release

    Alaska Air Group updates December and FY2017 traffic

    • Alaska Air Group (NYSE:ALK) reports revenue passenger miles up 9.2% to 4.505B in December.
    • Capacity rose 10.3% to 5.475B available seat miles.
    • Load factor slipped 80 bps to 82.3% for the month, where as it rose 20 bps to 84.3% for FY2017.
    • Press release

    Twitter +2.9% as BTIG sees takeout coming, raises target

    • Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) is up 2.9% premarket with BTIG eyeing it as a takeout target, saying it's "too valuable to remain independent."
    • Analyst Richard Greenfield has boosted his price target to $30 from $25, matching a Street high, and says the company's in the "early stages of a multi-year turnaround."
    • The company could grow revenue in the mid-high teens in 2018 and EBITDA could grow over 20% vs. competing single-digit estimates. (h/t Bloomberg)
    • Shares have risen 42% over the past 12 months, and hit a 52-week high on Dec. 21.





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Zero Hedge

In Surprise Move, Pentagon Deploys 3 Types Of Strategic Bombers To Guam

 

In Surprise Move, Pentagon Deploys 3 Types Of Strategic Bombers To Guam

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Amid soaring tensions between Washington and Pyongyang, the Pentagon has deployed nearly every type of strategic and nuclear-capable bomber to the island of Guam, an American territory in Micronesia, in the Western Pacific.

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The Coming Oil Bull Market?

By Fallible. Originally published at ValueWalk.

We all know the biggest profits come from staying ahead of the market.

If everybody thinks prices will go one way… you have to look for evidence that says otherwise.

]]> Get The REITs eBook in PDF

Get our PDF study on REITs and our other investor studies! Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

ambquinn / Pixabay

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Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

 

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

Courtesy of Vitaliy Katsenelson, Contrarian Edge

If you invested in the markets circa 1999, it is hard to observe the Bitcoin mania and not experience the feeling that you’ve seen this movie before and know how it will end – in losses and tears. The internet was a great idea that convinced a lot of great minds to invest capital and energy into businesses that have transformed the world – Amazon, eBay, Cisco, PayPal … the list is very long (though in fairness the list of non-survivors is even longer – but they are not here to remind us of their nonexistence).

R...



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Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

 

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

Courtesy of Vitaliy Katsenelson, Contrarian Edge

If you invested in the markets circa 1999, it is hard to observe the Bitcoin mania and not experience the feeling that you’ve seen this movie before and know how it will end – in losses and tears. The internet was a great idea that convinced a lot of great minds to invest capital and energy into businesses that have transformed the world – Amazon, eBay, Cisco, PayPal … the list is very long (though in fairness the list of non-survivors is even longer – but they are not here to remind us of their nonexistence).

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AlarmCom Is A Rare Home Automation, IoT Play, Jefferies Says In Upgrade

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Weekly Market Recap Jan 14, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

After 3 days of mild “rest” – and the first down day of the year (!!) for the S&P 500, bulls came back with bells on Thursday and Friday, driving indexes to record highs yet again.  This is starting to get “parabolic”… some shades of the type of things we saw in 1999.  (See the S&P 500 and NASDAQ charts below)  The S&P 500 gained 1.6% and the NASDAQ 1.7% for the week.

“This reminds me of January 2000,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist, at Capitol Securities Management, which manages $4 billion in assets, referring to the nearly unceasing climb to records for stocks and the unease it can inspire.  “It’s scary, the unrelenting advance,” he added.

“The move isn’t about fundamentals...



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How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain - new study

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How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain – new study

Courtesy of Thomas E CopeUniversity of Cambridge

Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating brain illness that affects an estimated 47m people worldwide. It is the most common cause of dementia in the Western world. Despite this, there are currently no treatments that are effective in curing Alzheimer’s disease or preventing its relentless progressio...



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Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like 'Science-Based,' 'Diversity'

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These are the policies of a theocracy, not a modern democracy:

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like ‘Science-Based,’ ‘Diversity’

The Trump administration has prohibited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from using words like “science-based,” “diversity,” and “transgender” in their official documents for next year’s budget, according to the Washington Post.

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Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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