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Thursday, April 18, 2024

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  1. phil

    Good morning!

    Took a detour last night and ended up getting home late – passed right out after a long day but now it's too much sleep so I'm wide awake at 2am…

    Towelie/Naybob, Baron – I have, on the other hand, always followed Doug Adams' advice on that subject and always have a really good towel.  They are, actually, incredibly useful and versatile from pillows to swaddling babies to make-shift sacks to traction devices for cars that get stuck in the mud or snow, so:

    Image result for don't forget to bring a towel animated gif

    MSFT/Scott – Just caught up in the tech sell-off.  Went from $60 to $85 this year and $55 at the election is 54.5% – kind of due for a pullback, right?

    /SI/Japar – I sure do like /SI but hard to call a bottom here, though I'd have conviction at $16.  I blame BitCoin (as noted at the Nasdaq yesterday) for sucking up $200Bn from the same kind of people who would usually buy silver or gold as an alternate store of wealth.  

    See, only $42Bn of physical gold is actually traded in a year! 

    So I think, when and if the BitCoin fad dies out, or at least calms down, then money will move into silver and gold again because certainly this irresponsible budget by our Government is not good for the Dollar and, even if it does manage to boost the economy – that would likely lead to the inflation the Fed is pushing for and inflation is generally good for gold and silver.

    Fiber/Stu – Good comparison.

    Welcome Mitomeio!  Yes, the FTR ex-dividend is likely to drop the stock a quick 0.60 and yes, if your premium is less than 0.60, it makes sense for the caller to grab your stock and get the dividend.  I would buy the stock for $9.20 and sell the Feb $9 calls for $1 so you are netting in for $8.20 and don't care if you get called away with an 0.80 profit and, if not, you get your dividend.  

    FU Portfolio/DC – Because the idea is to start from scratch and teach people how to build portfolios over time.  By it's nature, the LTP will always end of with "FU Stocks" because we cash in our winners and tend to work our losers so, given those conditions, after 4 years, what will be left in a portfolio?  In the LTP, which started with $500,000, we now have $1.35M in CASH!!! and we have some positions that have a loss and some that have a gain for another net $460,000 positive Dollars.  If I HAD to keep a position I'd sure as Hell keep the 50 AAPL 2019 $150/180 bull call spreads with 15 short $120 puts and 20 short Jan $155 calls at net $41,907 because that's going to return $150,000 so why, if I'm only going to keep 3 positions, would I choose FTR or GNC or TEVA over that?  Those positions are 3 of 61 open stocks in the LTP and our strategy is all about BALANCE, which means we're always going to have some beaten-down value stocks to balance out the momentum stocks we're playing.  I'm sure we'll be adding all of those names back, along with AAPL and other more sensible positions.  I just picked FTR again on the simple covered call above!  

    Thanks GrassHopper!   Yellow on TOS indicates a 6/100 split and $9.45 in cash against old positions.  They standardize everything to 100 units so 1/15th 6.66 shares and they can't give you 6.66 shares so you get 6 shares and the cash value of 0.66 shares (at the time of the split).  



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