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Dow Set For Another -200 Point Open After A Volatile, Extremely Illiquid Session

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

U.S. stock index futures turn negative in an illiquid, volatile session as investor sentiment has yet to stabilize amid doubts whether the U.S. equity selloff is over as yields remain just south of the critical 2.85% level. S&P E-mini contracts slid 0.1%, while the VIX is up 1% to 28.1 after 2 days of declines. Including fair value, the Dow is expected to have an implied open of over 200 points lower while the S&P will open around 2,665.

Meanwhile, in this post-VIX ETP world, liquidity remains non-existent, as this chart from nanex shows.

It’s not just the US however which can’t find its footin, as all risk-related assets trade under pressure in a generally muted session following yesterday’s whipsawed session which saw stocks spend much of the day in the green, only to slide at the close. 

European equity losses hit ~1.0% as the mining sector underperforms while banks are supported by decent earnings reports from Commerzbank, SocGen and UniCredit. In terms of sector specifics, the financial sector is the outperformer with earnings from the likes of Commerzbank (+2.4%), SocGen (+4.1%), UniCredit (+2.6%) and Zurich Insurance (+3.8%) lifting the sector with Swiss Re (+3.8%) also lending a helping hand near the top of the SMI after news that Softbank could acquire a stake in the Co. Elsewhere, GSK (+2.3%) has been supported by news that Novartis’ launch of their Advair copy will be delayed. In terms of bourses, the CAC (-0.3%) has seen some modest outperformance, with domestic earnings from Total (+1.8%), Pernod Ricard (+2.2%) and Publicis (+3.8%) capping losses.

Earlier, shares in Japan closed higher after a turbulent session while China’s stocks fell for a third day, even as Hong Kong equities climbed. Australia’s ASX 200 (+0.2%) was lower for most of the day as weakness in the commodity complex weighed on mining names, however, the index then gradually pared losses as strong Chinese Imports provided some encouragement. The Nikkei 225 (+1.1%) outperformed with corporate earnings back in the limelight, while Hang Seng (+0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.4%) ignored strong trade data and were indecisive after the PBoC skipped open market operations for the 11th consecutive occasion, and with heavy losses seen across the big 4 banks in the mainland.

The biggest highlight of the overnight session, however, was the yuan which, as we reported overnight, fell the most since the currency’s devaluation in August 2015 after China reported a much narrower-than-expected trade surplus as imports jumped. According to Reuters, China has resumed its Qualified Domestic Limited Partnership plan after a two-year halt, granting licenses to about a dozen global money managers that can raise funds in China for overseas investments. Increasing imports and investment overseas both contribute to a weaker currency, and the result was a sharp plunge in the Yuan, a move which may again be criticized by Trump as indicative of currency wars.

“Selling of offshore yuan has spurred short covering of the dollar,” said Ko Haruki, head of the financial solutions group at CIBC World Markets (Japan) in Tokyo. “The dollar’s gain against the yuan is lifting dollar-yen, which had also seen short covering as the Nikkei 225 stayed in positive territory.”

In other words, in today’s interlinked market, the plunge in the Yuan, ended up boosting Japanese stocks by way of a dollar, that traded  higher much of the overnight session.

Meanwhile, the all important catalyst for the recent equity selloff, U.S. 10-year Treasuries, were steady after Senate leaders unveiled a bipartisan deficit busting deal while weak demand at Wednesday’s 10Y auction pushed the yield back toward the recent four-year high.

At the same time, the pound drifted higher before a Bank of England rate decision, and the euro weakened as ECB member Jens Weidmann said the central bank will monitor the impact of the currency on inflation.  USD continues to find support across G-10, with ZAR and TRY particularly weak; yuan in focus after overnight selloff, which was driven by narrower trade surplus and increased outbound investment reports. 

A summary of key macro moves, courtesy of Bloomberg:

  • EUR/USD reached a two-week low of 1.2232 amid broad dollar strength; BBDXY rose for a second day and earlier reached its highest since Jan. 23
  • GBP/USD slips for fifth day, headed for its worst run in 11 months
  • USD/JPY climbed, as the yen tracked the plunge in the yuan
  • Yield on 10Y Treasuries little changed; dollar-curve bear steepened with 30Y underperforming

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures have seen relatively sideways trade overnight and this morning as prices remain in close proximity to yesterday’s lows seen in the wake of the ramp up in US production shown via the DOE’s with output above 10mln bpd and perhaps more crucially, above that of Saudi Arabia. Elsewhere, latest reports confirm that the Forties pipeline has now resumed operations. In metals markets, spot gold is trading lower as the yellow metal succumbs to the firmer USD, while copper’s attempt to nurse losses during Asia-Pac trade was restricted by the risk averse tone in its largest consumer China.

Bulletin Headline Summary from Ransquawk

  • European bourses trade lower across the board in sympathy with the pull-back seen on Wall Street yesterday
  • DXY has rallied above 90.000 and as far as 90.500. Nzd/Usd has pared some losses to trade back over 0.7200
  • Looking ahead, highlights today include the BoE rate decision and a slew of speakers including ECB’s Villeroy, BoE Governor Carney, Fed’s Harker, Fed’s Kashkari, BoC’s Wilkins

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,665.0
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 378.89
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.3% to 173.47
  • MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 0.09% to 566.67
  • Nikkei up 1.1% to 21,890.86
  • Topix up 0.9% to 1,765.69
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 30,451.27
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.4% to 3,262.05
  • Sensex up 1% to 34,405.30
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,890.70
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,407.62
  • Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,309.95
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 90.53
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to 0.764%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.2233
  • Brent Futures down 0.09% to $65.45/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.8 bps to 1.682%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 1.426%

Top Overnight News from BBG

  • Fed’s Kaplan: 3 hikes this year is appropriate; best way to continue expansion is to remove accommodation

  • Reuters: China revives QDLP outbound investment scheme; licenses granted for some funds to raise money in China for investment overseas ending a 2-year halt, according to people familiar

  • Japanese investors dumped U.S. sovereign bonds for a third month in December, taking sales last year to the highest in a decade. Total withdrawals for 2017 were 3.83 trillion yen, the most since 2007, when they offloaded 3.98 trillion yen. They were net buyers between 2014 and 2016.

  • Senate leaders in the U.S. announced a bipartisan two-year budget agreement Wednesday that would provide nearly $300 billion in additional funding, a crucial step toward averting a Friday government shutdown
  • The European Commission is struggling to translate the U.K.’s Brexit pledges on Ireland into a legally binding text, even before they present it to the U.K. in negotiations, according to people familiar with the EU side.
  • New Zealand’s central bank held interest rates at a record low and projected they will stay there until mid-2019 as inflation remains subdued amid slower economic growth.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said he isn’t altering his view on the U.S. economy or preference for a continued gradual rate hike path after several days of volatile markets. “The risks seem to be moving toward the likelihood of more inflation, and that’s a good thing,” Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans says
  • The greenback gained as much as 0.9% against the offshore yuan, while advancing 0.3% against the yen to 109.61 after earlier being down as much as 0.2%. The Nikkei 225 index climbed 1.1%
  • China’s yuan sank the most since the aftermath of the shock devaluation in August 2015. Reuters reported that the Chinese government will relax controls on investment fund outflows. China’s trade surplus figures missed estimates and speculation policy makers will step up efforts to rein in gains, pressured the yuan
  • Franklin Templeton bond chief, Michael Hasenstab, is doubling down on bets that Treasuries are doomed due to rising rates. He’s been loading up on wagers that protect against a spike in yields in his $38 billion flagship Global Bond Fund. The move has pushed average duration in the portfolio to the shortest on record.
  • The German grand-coalition agreement helped pare peripheral spreads versus bunds to the lowest since 2010, which should allow Greece to resume plans for a 7Y EUR note, Commerzbank analysts said in a note today
  • BOE Governor Mark Carney may be less reassuring if he signals more tightening today amid expectations the central bank will upgrade its quarterly outlook

Asian equity markets traded mixed with the region somewhat cautious following the subdued lead from Wall St. where price action was choppy and all majors closed in the red. ASX 200 (+0.2%) was lower for most of the day as weakness in the commodity complex weighed on mining names, and with industry giant Rio Tinto also pressured after investors bought the rumour and sold on the news of a strong earnings report. However, the index then gradually pared losses as strong Chinese Imports provided some encouragement. Elsewhere, Nikkei 225 (+1.1%) outperformed with corporate earnings back in the limelight, while Hang Seng (+0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.4%) ignored strong trade data and were indecisive after the PBoC skipped open market operations for the 11th consecutive occasion, and with heavy losses seen across the big 4 banks in the mainland. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally lower with demand subdued amid gains in Japanese risk assets, while the 30yr JGB auction also failed to provide support despite increased demand and higher accepted prices. PBoC skipped open market operations and was net neutral on the d

Top Asian News

  • China’s Yuan Plunges Most Since Aftermath of Devaluation in 2015
  • BOJ’s Suzuki Is Monitoring Impact of Monetary Easing on Banks
  • China Jan. Exports Rise 6.0% Y/y in Yuan Terms; Est. 2.6%
  • Australia’s Lowe Sees No ‘Strong Case’ for Near-Term Rate Move
  • Turkey’s Big Year for IPOs Is Off to an Underwhelming Start
  • Everything’s a Sell in China After $660 Billion Equity Wipeout

China trade from CapEco:  Trade appears strong but seasonal effects muddy the waters. Chinese trade beat expectations at the start to 2018. But seasonal volatility means that we won’t get a clear reading on the pace of foreign shipments until next month. Export growth edged down from 7.4% y/y in December to 6.0% last month in renminbi terms (the Bloomberg median was 2.6%, our forecast was 0.0%). Adjusting for a rise in export prices, we estimate that growth in export volumes dropped from 6.9% y/y to 5.2%. It is surprising that growth in outbound shipments didn’t decline by a wider margin given that Chinese New Year falls later this year than last, which should have meant that less of the pre-holiday rush to meet orders took place in January. We estimate that export volumes rose around 3% m/m in seasonally adjusted terms last month, reaching an all-time high. This suggests that strong foreign demand – the global manufacturing PMI remained close to a seven-year high in January – has continued to support shipments of Chinese goods. Meanwhile, import growth jumped in January, from 0.9% y/y to 30.2% (Bloomberg 5.3%, CE 6.0%). Adjusting for price effects, we estimate that growth in import volumes also surged, from -3.9% y/y to 26.0%. A pick-up was expected given that more of the build-up in inventories ahead of the pre-New Year rush should have taken place in January this year relative to 2017. But as with exports, the outturn exceeded expectations. We estimate that, even after stripping out seasonal factors, import volumes jumped 15% m/m last month, more than reversing a 7.2% fall in December. On the face of it then, the data point to a very strong start to the year for Chinese trade. But the figures need to be treated with caution since although we have done our best to adjust for shifts in the timing of Lunar New Year, it is not always possible to iron out these distortions entirely.  The picture will become clearer once we are able to average across the data for first two months of the year. We think export growth will rise further in February but expect import growth to drop back sharply as the seasonal base effects reverse.  

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.6%) trade lower across the board in sympathy with the broader pull-back in risk around the globe today and in the US on Wednesday. In terms of sector specifics, the financial sector is the outperformer with earnings from the likes of Commerzbank (+2.4%), SocGen (+4.1%), UniCredit (+2.6%) and Zurich Insurance (+3.8%) lifting the sector with Swiss Re (+3.8%) also lending a helping hand near the top of the SMI after news that Softbank could acquire a stake in the Co. Elsewhere, GSK (+2.3%) has been supported by news that Novartis’ launch of their Advair copy will be delayed. In terms of bourses, the CAC (-0.3%) has seen some modest outperformance, with domestic earnings from Total (+1.8%), Pernod Ricard (+2.2%) and Publicis (+3.8%) capping losses. Finally, Talk Talk (-10%) are enduring a difficult morning of trade after announcing a GBP 200mln share placement.

Top European News

  • TDC Soars After News of a Cash Takeover Bid From Giant Funds
  • May Said to Plan Instant Split From Some EU Rules After Brexit
  • Merkel’s Fourth Term Now Rides on Germany’s Changing Rust Belt
  • Zurich Delivers on Dividend Pledge as Insurer Slashes Costs

In currncies,the  Nzd/Usd has pared some losses to trade back over 0.7200 from a circa 0.7175 low overnight after the RBNZ stood pat on rates as widely expected, but surprised with a broadly dovish accompanying statement and additional comments projecting a further downturn in the Kiwi on a TWI basis. While maintaining guidance for tightening from Q2 next year, Governor Spencer and his assistant McDermott cautioned that the next move could be a cut or hike. Hence, the Aud/Nzd cross has rebounded above 1.0800 again and almost touched 1.0900 at one stage, as Aud/Usd keeps its head above 0.7800 despite RBA governor Lowe RBA Governor Lowe stating that the RBA does not see a strong case for raising interest rates in the near term. Elsewhere, Usd/Jpy has climbed towards the top of a broad 109.00-110.00 range amidst a renewed pledge from BoJ head Kuroda to continue with powerful QE to achieve price stability as it remains some way from reaching the inflation target. Eur/Usd has also broken out from recent trading parameters, partly on ECB claims that the US is keeping the Dollar weak, but mainly as the Greenback gleans more of a yield advantage. The headline pair has bounced in advance of a series of key chart supports in the 1.2222-27 area, but may not get close to decent option expiry strikes between 1.2300-10 (1.35 bn). Sterling is holding up relatively well in the run up to a potentially more hawkish BoE post-meeting QIR with Cable above 1.3850 and Eur/Gbp sub-0.8850 vs 0.8900 and over of late. Note, option pricing suggests a big market move on the event, 120 pips either way. Usd/Cad still hovering just below 1.2600 as Canadian President Trudeau repeats that no NAFTA deal is better than the wrong one, while Usd/Chf is sitting near the top of a higher 0.9425-50 band having pushed through strong tech resistance at the lower end. Usd/Cny has bounced firmly on a much smaller than forecast Chinese trade surplus and reports about relaxed capital controls – hence the DXY has rallied above 90.000 and as far as 90.500.

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures have seen relatively sideways trade overnight and this morning as prices remain in close proximity to yesterday’s lows seen in the wake of the ramp up in US production shown via the DOE’s with output above 10mln bpd and perhaps more crucially, above that of Saudi Arabia. Elsewhere, latest reports confirm that the Forties pipeline has now resumed operations. In metals markets, spot gold is trading lower as the yellow metal succumbs to the firmer USD, while copper’s attempt to nurse losses during Asia-Pac trade was restricted by the risk averse tone in its largest consumer China. North Sea Forties crude oil pipeline has restarted.

Looking at the day ahead, the BoE should be the highlight today with the MPC meeting due around midday. The latest inflation report will be released alongside this and Governor Carney will then follow with his press conference. Away  from that, the December trade data is out in Germany and the latest weekly initial jobless claims data in the US are also due. The Fed’s Kashkari and Harker are also slated to speak in the afternoon at separate events, while the ECB’s Mersch, Praet and Villeory will speak. AIGand CVS Health are due to report earnings.  

US Event Calendar

  • 8am: Fed’s Harker Speaks on Economy: Outlook and Impact for College
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 232,000, prior 230,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.94m, prior 1.95m
  • 9am: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks in Moderated Q&A
  • 9pm: Fed’s George Speaks on the Economy

DB’s Jim reid concludes the overnight wrap

Has the phrase “healthy correction” ever been used more than it has over the past 24 hours? Given that the VIX traded above 50 on Tuesday (a level it hasn’t closed at since March 2009) I’d hate to see what an unhealthy correction looks like. Having said that markets are broadly adhering to the script of what normally happens after the largest VIX spikes seen on record. As a reminder on Tuesday night we published a quick note showing what happens 1 week, 1 month and 3 months after the largest 10 VIX spikes in history. Basically the VIX usually rallies over all subsequent periods but equities tend to be higher the week after but on average fall 3 months later. The reverse is  true for bonds.

Things were adhering to this script for most of the day (especially in Europe) but a late US equity sell-off provided some renewed jitters to markets. The VIX did fall 7.5% to 27.73 but the S&P 500 fell -0.50% – well off the day’s highs of +1.21% just before Europe’s strong close (more below) and including a near 1% drop in the last 20 minutes of trading. Activity remains high and according to Bloomberg volume on US exchanges exceeded 9 billion shares for a fourth straight day after surpassing that total just once in the past seven months.

The reversal seemed to stem from a disappointing 10 year Treasury auction which lifted yields around 8bps from the lows for the session (+3.4bps on the day to 2.837%) and perhaps also because of the Senate’s additional spending plans (more below). Given the turmoil this week it is very telling that 10yr US yields are back to where they were at payroll Friday’s close having climbed 19.1bps from Tuesday’s lows.

Very soon we’ll start building up to next Wednesday’s US January CPI print and although the importance of one number should be downplayed in theory, in reality it’s fair to say that this will be an incredibly closely watched number for global markets. A higher than expected print will likely extend the volatility and probablycause risk to sell-off whereas an in-line or softer print will be very risk positive.

We’ve got no idea about where one number is going to come in but we’d expect inflation to more often beat on the upside in 2018. Interestingly DB’s Alan Ruskin yesterday highlighted that over the last 25 years, January core CPI m/m% was lower than Dec core CPI m/m% on only 5 occasions. The Feb core CPI was higher than January core CPI on only 6 of the last 25 occasions. He points out that there is a bias in the seasonally adjusted data for a bump up in January m/m% relative to both December and February. Food for thought.

In the US, Senate leaders have announced a bipartisan two year budget deal – including c$300bn of new spending and suspension of the federal debt ceiling until March 2019. The agreement is expected to extend the government funding until 23 March while the lawmakers refine details on the longer term plans.

Looking ahead, the bill will be voted on in the Senate today and then move to the House, where it is not certain that it will pass. House Minority leader Ms Pelosi noted she won’t back the bill without a commitment from Speaker Ryan to allow an open debate on the immigration issues, similar to the promise made earlier by Senator McConnell.

In Germany, Ms Merkel and the SPD have reached an agreement to form the next coalition government, with the SPD likely to gain the finance and foreign affairs ministry posts as part of the concession (as per Bloomberg). Notably, the SPD has held these two ministries before, back in the 2005-2009’s grand coalition government. For now, Ms Merkel has reaffirmed her commitment to a “solid” fiscal policy and noted “you can only spend the money you have…I’m not worried at all”. In view of the SPD gaining many of the key Government positions and their previously stated desire to create a United States of Europe by 2025, the result could boost the potential for a deeper EU integration as proposed earlier by France’s President Macron where he advocated a joint budget and common finance ministers for the region. Looking ahead, the deal needs to be approved by the SPD’s 463k rank and file members, where confirmation is not certain.

This morning in Asia, markets are mixed but firming as we type. The Nikkei (+1.22%), Kospi (+0.74%) and Hang Seng (+0.77) are all up whilst the China’s CSI 300 (-0.89%) is lower. Datawise, China’s January trade surplus was less than expected at $20.3bn (vs. $54.7b) as a strong rise in imports (36.9% vs. 10.6% expected) outpaced exports growth (11.1%). Elsewhere, in his first public speech since joining the BOJ’s board, Mr Suzuki noted the central bank must continue with easing for a while as inflation is still far from the BOJ’s 2% target.

Now recapping other market performance from yesterday. As mentioned earlier, US bourses fluctuated during the day before closing lower (S&P -0.50%; Dow -0.08%; Nasdaq -0.90%). Within the S&P, modest gains in the telco and financials were more than offset by losses from energy and tech stocks. European markets were all up and rebounded c2%, in part playing a catch up to the positive US lead from the prior day. The Stoxx 600 rose for the first time in seven days and printed the largest gain since June 2016 (+1.97%), while the DAX (+1.60%) and FTSE (+1.93%) also rose. The VSTOXX fell 29% back to April 17 levels (21.37).

Over in government bonds, core 10y bond yields rose 3-5bp (UST +3.4bp; Bunds +5.2bp; Gilts +3bp) while peripherals outperformed, with yields down 1-4bp, in part boosted by the potential for tighter EU integration post the German coalition talks. Turning to currencies, the US dollar index firmed for the fourth consecutive day (+0.75%), while the Euro and Sterling weakened 0.91% and 0.49% respectively. In commodities, WTI oil dropped 2.52% following the latest EIA data showed a rise in US crude inventories and domestic oil output.

Elsewhere, precious metals weakened c1% (Gold -0.44%; Silver -1.64%) and other base metals also retreated (Copper -2.1%; Zinc -1.56%; Aluminium +0.32%). Away from the markets and onto the four Fed speakers. On the recent US equity sell off, they all seemed to be taking it in their stride. The Fed’s Dudley noted that “having a bump like this has virtually no consequences on my view of the economic outlook”. The Fed’s Kaplan added these corrections “can be healthy” and has little implication for the US economy. Then the Fed’s Williams noted “I don’t see any of the movements in asset prices of late to fundamentally change my view of the economy”. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Evans noted the US economy is “firing on all cylinders” and believe the recent equity selloff was “an outsized response”.

Moving onto rates and inflation. Mr Williams who is a voter this year said “we should have a gradual increase in rates this year and next…right now, I’m not taking any signal” from the data, although he also added “even four rate hikes is very gradual”. Elsewhere Mr Evans has reaffirmed his views of keeping rates flat until mid-18 in order to assess the incoming inflation data. Although he also added “suppose inflation picks up more assuredly….then we still could easily raise rates another three or even four times in 2018 if that were necessary”.

Finally, Mr Kaplan noted that “we are likely to overshoot full employment and it would be wise to be removing  accommodation in a patient and balance manner”. Back in the UK and ahead of today’s BOE, DB’s Oliver Harvey argues that it will be difficult for the Bank to out-hawk current market pricing at this meeting. While the Bank is unlikely to push back against the tighter path implied by the market forward curve, they think that it is still too difficult for it to signal confidence in a May hike given ongoing risks about Brexit transition, the wedge between domestic and external demand and limited evidence of an overheating labour market.

Staying in Europe, the European Commission has upgraded its GDP growth forecasts for the Euro area. Growth for 2018 is now 2.3% (+0.2ppt from previous) and 2% for 2019. Elsewhere, inflation is expected to be marginally higher to 1.5% this year but unchanged at 1.6% for 2019. The EC forecasts UK growth to slow to 1.4% this year and 1.1% next year (DB expects growth of 1.3% and 1.5% respectively). Elsewhere, the ECB’s Lautenschlaeger noted price trends justify ending the QE program this year.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the December consumer credit was lower than expected at $18.5bln (vs. $20.0bln), but prior revisions meant annual growth was up 5.4% yoy. Following a stronger November reading, Germany’s December IP fell a bit less than expected at -0.6% mom (vs. -0.7%), leading to an annual growth of 6.5% yoy. In France, the December trade balance deficit narrowed to -EUR3.5bln (vs. -EUR4.9bln) – the smallest deficit since May 2016. A rebound in exports boosted annual growth to 4.1% yoy whereas imports rose 3.0% yoy. In the UK, the January Halifax house price index fell -0.6% mom (vs. 0.2% expected) leading to an annual growth of 2.2% yoy (vs 2.4% expected). Finally, Italy’s December retail sales was lower than expectations at -0.1% yoy (vs 1%).

Looking at the day ahead, the BoE should be the highlight today with the MPC meeting due around midday. The latest inflation report will be released alongside this and Governor Carney will then follow with his press conference. Away  from that, the December trade data is out in Germany and the latest weekly initial jobless claims data in the US are also due. The Fed’s Kashkari and Harker are also slated to speak in the afternoon at separate events, while the ECB’s Mersch, Praet and Villeory will speak. AIGand CVS Health are due to report earnings.  


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