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A fresh pickup in AIG puts…and traders take jaded view of Children’s Place

Today’s tickers: AIG, PRU, MYL, PLCE, HBC, CSCO, RIMM, MSFT, ANN, CREE, AKAM, NWA, AET

AIG – Is litigation fanning the flames of put action in American International Group? Shares in the property and casualty insurance giant are trading .60% lower this afternoon at $51.82, lagging behind the broader S&P 500. While the current share price action is relatively subdued, a look at the 55% implied volatility reading shows current option premiums pricing in about 11% more price risk for AIG shares over the next month than has already been documented over the past year. With more than 120,000 options trading this afternoon, AIG was one of the most heavily visited tickers on our platform, and the volume favored puts by a factor of 7 to 1. Prosecutors rested their case yesterday in accounting fraud proceedings against five former insurance company executives from General Re and AIG. The courtroom drama may be hardening investors’ inclination to seek put protection – AIG options saw a big spike in out-of-the-money put volume in the May and August contracts earlier this week on credit exposure worries. Today’s volume appears centered in the February contract at strikes 40, 45 and 50, where buyers went long on premiums up as much as 14% on the session.

PRU – Shares in the country’s second-biggest life insurer Prudential Financial are down 6.6% to $72.25, recouping some losses after having declined as much as 9% on back of its earnings miss and lowering of guidance. Traders were positioned long volatility heading into the earnings release, anticipating just this kind of violent move on earnings by buying into the then-at-the-money February 80 straddle. The position, which cost $6 heading into the close yesterday, has since mushroomed in value by some 42% to $8.55, yielding a tidy profit for traders looking to cash in on the big move now. Elsewhere traders sought fresh positions today in February calls at strikes 70 and 75, which traded at around $1 apiece – possibly looking for stabilization in Prudential shares at strikes well below the 52-week low.

MYL – Shares in generic drug maker Mylan Inc. sank 5.7% to $13.02 in afternoon trading. The move appears to have come after the company opted against providing guidance as part of its upcoming earnings report on February 27. Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that Mylan might be a pole position to realize $150 billion…
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A fresh pickup in AIG puts…and traders take jaded view of Children’s Place

Today’s tickers: AIG, PRU, MYL, PLCE, HBC, CSCO, RIMM, MSFT, ANN, CREE, AKAM, NWA, AET

AIG – Is litigation fanning the flames of put action in American International Group? Shares in the property and casualty insurance giant are trading .60% lower this afternoon at $51.82, lagging behind the broader S&P 500. While the current share price action is relatively subdued, a look at the 55% implied volatility reading shows current option premiums pricing in about 11% more price risk for AIG shares over the next month than has already been documented over the past year. With more than 120,000 options trading this afternoon, AIG was one of the most heavily visited tickers on our platform, and the volume favored puts by a factor of 7 to 1. Prosecutors rested their case yesterday in accounting fraud proceedings against five former insurance company executives from General Re and AIG. The courtroom drama may be hardening investors’ inclination to seek put protection – AIG options saw a big spike in out-of-the-money put volume in the May and August contracts earlier this week on credit exposure worries. Today’s volume appears centered in the February contract at strikes 40, 45 and 50, where buyers went long on premiums up as much as 14% on the session.

PRU – Shares in the country’s second-biggest life insurer Prudential Financial are down 6.6% to $72.25, recouping some losses after having declined as much as 9% on back of its earnings miss and lowering of guidance. Traders were positioned long volatility heading into the earnings release, anticipating just this kind of violent move on earnings by buying into the then-at-the-money February 80 straddle. The position, which cost $6 heading into the close yesterday, has since mushroomed in value by some 42% to $8.55, yielding a tidy profit for traders looking to cash in on the big move now. Elsewhere traders sought fresh positions today in February calls at strikes 70 and 75, which traded at around $1 apiece – possibly looking for stabilization in Prudential shares at strikes well below the 52-week low.

MYL – Shares in generic drug maker Mylan Inc. sank 5.7% to $13.02 in afternoon trading. The move appears to have come after the company opted against providing guidance as part of its upcoming earnings report on February 27. Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that Mylan might be a pole position to realize $150 billion…
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Always an Option 1:3 – August 2007

Download the latest issue here:

Always an Option 1:3

As always, we appreciate any feedback. Fire off an email to admin@philstockworld.com.  Also, this is a great opportunity to remind everyone: please add our email address to your address book, white list, safe list, or whatever else you use so that messages from us don’t end up in your junk folder.




Always an Option #2

The next issue of our new newsletter is available for download:

Always an Option #2

Table of Contents:

  • Phil: Weekly Review
  • Steven (Zman): The Energy Report
  • OptionSage: Making 100% or 1000% in 3 months
  • Jared: SPY vs. SPX
  • Andy (HappyTrading): Wang’s Weekly Picks

 

We’re still making changes based on your feedback on the last issue, but comments and suggestions are always appreciated!

-Jared




Always an Option – Newsletter Sample

Hi everyone,

We’ve been working really hard on getting the newsletter together, and we’re presenting our first sample issue here.  This is exclusively for members, so please don’t  distribute it.  The newsletter is in Adobe PDF format; if you can’t open the file you’ll need to grab the reader here.

Download Always an Option 1:1

The newsletter features picks and trade updates from Phil, an energy report from Zman, an educational article from OptionSage, technical analysis picks from HappyTrading, and an iron condor experiment from me.

We’re very keen to get feedback and criticism, so please let us know what you like and dislike and if you have ideas for future improvements.  You can leave comments here or email them directly.

Thanks,
Jared




Affiliation Made Easy

I’ve just updated our affiliate program.  Here’s the deal: refer someone, and get $25 when they subscribe.  To participate, just login to your Member Page and go to the Affiliates area. There, you can get code for text links or banners, which you can put on your blog, website, or on the side of your car.

We’d honestly rather have new members who are referred by current members, because you are smart people and you are probably friends with other smart people. So if you signup 4 new members, we’ll throw another $50 your way, and will keep doing so for every fourth paid referral. Again, this last perk is only for current members.




Site Changes

A few items you might not be aware of:

  • Our Links page has been updated to include some helpful information about options-friendly brokers. Hint: you won’t get far trading options with Scottrade (I know, I tried once).
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  • For some of you, 2 posts a day and 250+ comments still isn’t enough, and you occasionally find yourself browsing through our archives, yearning for more. Well, today’s your lucky day: our archives now extend all the way back to January 2005! Note: if you come across any old posts that aren’t formatted properly, please let me know.



Confessions of a Phil’s Stock World Neophyte

[Ed: member gumbaphil submits:]

Confessions of a Neophyte “Phil Groupie”

“So, Cory old buddy, whadya get for your birthday???”

(I suppose I can use triple question marks…in keeping with the “Phil” lexicon)

“Well”, sez I, “I bought myself a subscription to PhilsStockWorld.com. Figgered I oughta find somethin’ interesting to do while recuperating from back surgery. Sitting is a might more comfortable than lying around in the bed doncha know; and I don’t care much for no soap operas on TV.”

“PhilStockWorld?…What’s that?

“Good question. I’ve been a member now for 12 trading days and it appears to be part Options trading education, part trading “hints” (he don’t give no “advice” since he’s not a registered securities “advisor”), and a whole batch o’ political and economic commentary”.

“That’s it? You just glue yourself to a computer monitor all day, and READ stuff?”

“No way man. I launch my Ameritrade Control Panel which is a poor man’s trading platform and do my best to mirror the stock option trades (hints) that Phil posts on his commentary Phorum. “

“And that’s not all either. I discovered that the second by second monitoring of some the more “risky” positions was an excellent way to test out this little heart rate monitor that my son gave me. So far, it sez I’ve registered about 99 million calories by just sittin’ at the keyboard.”

“So, ya made any money?

“Well…yes…and…no.”

“Whaddya mean yes AND no?

“Well, I FOLLOWED PHIL’S DISCIPLINED APPROACH on most trades, which is basically the 20% rule, and took my gains off the table. But I made the classic mistake of DENIAL on my oil PUTS and let my losses pile up, without directional protection, to the point that my losses on them may well exceed the gains on my closed positions.”

“HOWEVER, I still have some time on my side with those oil PUTS (Apr 21st) and I’m so d@&mn far underwater with them that I may let them ride and hope for a miracle.”

Here’s the 12 trading day breakdown:

Virtual Portfolio Balance $25,000  
CLOSED Positions (24)    
   Net Gain $3,870 15%
   Total position trades 24  
   Avg value per trade $600  
   Avg gain per trade $161  
   Avg


continue reading




Confessions of a Phil’s Stock World Neophyte

[Ed: member gumbaphil submits:]

Confessions of a Neophyte “Phil Groupie”

“So, Cory old buddy, whadya get for your birthday???”

(I suppose I can use triple question marks…in keeping with the “Phil” lexicon)

“Well”, sez I, “I bought myself a subscription to PhilsStockWorld.com. Figgered I oughta find somethin’ interesting to do while recuperating from back surgery. Sitting is a might more comfortable than lying around in the bed doncha know; and I don’t care much for no soap operas on TV.”

“PhilStockWorld?…What’s that?

“Good question. I’ve been a member now for 12 trading days and it appears to be part Options trading education, part trading “hints” (he don’t give no “advice” since he’s not a registered securities “advisor”), and a whole batch o’ political and economic commentary”.

“That’s it? You just glue yourself to a computer monitor all day, and READ stuff?”

“No way man. I launch my Ameritrade Control Panel which is a poor man’s trading platform and do my best to mirror the stock option trades (hints) that Phil posts on his commentary Phorum. “

“And that’s not all either. I discovered that the second by second monitoring of some the more “risky” positions was an excellent way to test out this little heart rate monitor that my son gave me. So far, it sez I’ve registered about 99 million calories by just sittin’ at the keyboard.”

“So, ya made any money?

“Well…yes…and…no.”

“Whaddya mean yes AND no?

“Well, I FOLLOWED PHIL’S DISCIPLINED APPROACH on most trades, which is basically the 20% rule, and took my gains off the table. But I made the classic mistake of DENIAL on my oil PUTS and let my losses pile up, without directional protection, to the point that my losses on them may well exceed the gains on my closed positions.”

“HOWEVER, I still have some time on my side with those oil PUTS (Apr 21st) and I’m so d@&mn far underwater with them that I may let them ride and hope for a miracle.”

Here’s the 12 trading day breakdown:

Virtual Portfolio Balance $25,000  
CLOSED Positions (24)    
   Net Gain $3,870 15%
   Total position trades 24  
   Avg value per trade $600  
   Avg gain per trade $161  
   Avg


continue reading




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Chart School

The ''Real'' Goods on the Latest Durable Goods Orders

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Earlier this morning I posted an update on the May Advance Report on April Durable Goods Orders. This Census Bureau series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation.

Let's now review the same data with two adjustments. In the charts below the red line shows the goods orders divided by the Census Bureau's monthly population data, giving us durable goods orders per capita. The blue line goes a step further and adjusts for inflation based on the Producer Price Index, chained in today's dollar value. This gives us the "real" durable goods orders per capita. The snapshots below offer a quite sobering corrective to the standard reports on the nominal monthly data (which itself was significantly below expectations).

...

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Zero Hedge

The GEURO: "The Only Winners Are Foreign Banks"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In a brief though detailed clip, Stratfor's VP Peter Zeihan discusses the risk of contagion from Greece and the 'creative' - if not self-centered - suggestions for a solution to these problems. Earlier in the week we described Deutsche's suggestion of a dual currency - the GEURO - and that is where Zeihan focuses, noting that "The Greek economy is as deliciously non-competitive as the German economy is hyper-competitive" - this mismatch is the core of the crisis. The GEURO (tradin...



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Insider Scoop

New York Stock Exchange Spokesperson Says There Have Been No Discussions with Facebook About Switching

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Rich Adamonis, NYSE (NYSE: NYX) spokesperson told Benzinga "In response to incorrect reports re: NYX and Facebook (NDAQ: FB): There have been no discussions with Facebook regarding switching their listing in light of the events of the last week, nor do we think a discussion along those lines would be appropriate at this time.”

document.write("") (c) 2012 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.


For more Benzinga, visit Benzinga Professional Service, ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Market Montage

Chinese, European Data Continues to Weaken as Market Potentially Forming New Bear Flag

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

First we'll go to the technicals.  Back in mid April I had opined a 'bear flag' formation was being created. [Apr 17, 2012: Potential Bear Flag Forming]  But the market being the difficult beast it is, head faked everyone and rather than a break down from said flag it first went UP and nearly touched yearly highs.  This caused everyone to think the bear flag had failed…. only to lead to a horrid May in the market.  Generally a bear flag will resolve relatively quickly but the longer...



more from Mark

Sabrient

Sector Detector: New “Grecian Formula” is making us all gray

Courtesy of Scott Martindale, Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite the fact that U.S. equities are well-positioned and well-supported to go up, once again it is the headlines out of Europe—especially Greece—that are scaring off investors. Some are saying that it is now likely (and even desirable) that Greece will default on all its sovereign debt, withdraw from the euro, and severely devalue its domestic currency (Drachma?). This will allow them to operate a balanced budget while pumping cash into growth initiatives, rather than suffer the ravages of Germany-mandated austerity.

Some say, so what? Greece makes up only about 2% of the Eurozone’s overall economy. Nevertheless, you might say that this new “Grecian Formula” is creating the opposite effect to the men’s hair product, i.e.., rather than losing the gray we are al...



more from Sabrient

Phil's Favorites

Rumors and Denials of Rumors

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner

The market rallied higher once again on more rumors (some kind of unworkable bank deposit scheme: what Europe’s loan-deposit ratios look like), and denials of yesterday’s rumors (L-Pap now says Greece to say in EU, blah, blah).  The second chart shows what’s involved with PIIGS banking deposits.  Using hook theory,  trading rumors is the modus operandi, and not just plain rumors; but rather, inside-job rumors.  It’s only a matter of time before this market collapses, but one has to slough through the rigged foul stench along the way. Fund managers scramble all over themselves to load up on “safe” German Bunds and US Treasuries [...



more from Ilene

ETF Selector

Markets Die Then Flatten…Again (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, FB)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Markets died and then rallied to flat again as European leaders “prepared contingencies” for a possible Grexit

Markets died hard and fast earlier today as major indexes registered as much as 1.5% of losses after news that Euro zone officials were unofficially “preparing contingencies” for a Greek exit from the Euro.  Unofficial statements were not enough to keep markets down however, as major indexes rallied back to flat levels by the end of the day.

So the world continues to wait on Europe, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEACA:SPY) gained .05%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:...



more from John
 
 

Option Review

AT&T Weekly Puts In Play

 

Today’s tickers: T, FXE & OI

T - AT&T, Inc. – U.S. equities are on the decline as Europe’s woes once again take center stage. Shares in AT&T, down 0.90% at $33.24 this afternoon, are faring better than most of the other Dow components so far, though options activity on the wireless carrier suggests some strategists are bracing for further declines ahead of the long w...



more from Caitlin

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 21st, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

more from OpTrader

Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: Test Issue

NEW: Ilene is available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here is this week's test version of the latest newsletter. We apologize for some formatting issues that need to be worked out. Please tell us what you think. 

Click on Stock World Weekly here, and sign in/sign up.

...

more from SWW

Pharmboy

Big Pharma - Where Are We Now?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

In this article, please revisit an article written two years ago titled, "The Calm Before the Storm."  This article focused on the patent cliff that was looming in the pharmaceutical industry, that was later picked up by the New York Times and several other bloggers!  Subsequent articles were written about big pharma company's revenue streams, and the pros and cons of of their later stage pipelines.  Other articles have also attempted to identify smaller biotechs with the potential to reap big reward...



more from Pharmboy

IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 2/26/2012

My last weekend update is dated from January 30 so after a long hiatus, here is an update of our virtual portfolio. Since the last update, we have closed the AA Money portfolio due to a lack of enthusiasm (and activity) and I have stopped tracking the FAS strangle as the low VIX makes it hard to get rewarded for the risk! But we have added a small $5KP virtual portfolio which does not use any margin. FAS Money We have had to recover from a big move up by FAS and a low VIX which keeps option prices low. But the portfolio has gaine about 10% since the last update. Last update P&L - $5499.00 IWM Money Not a lot of activity in this portfolio where the main focus is on the large IWM BCS. But the portfolio has grown over 20% since the last update. Last update P&L - $1998.00 $5KP Portfolio This is the virtual portfolio that replaced the AA Money portfolio. It does not use margin and we will keep holdings under $5K. AAPL $50K P...

more from Strategies
 
 



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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