Weekly Gasoline Update: Premium Now Below $4
by Chart School - May 21st, 2012 6:35 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short.
Here is my weekly gasoline chart update from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data with an overlay of West Texas Crude (WTIC). Gasoline prices at the pump, rounded to the penny, declined over the past week: regular is down four cents and premium is down five. This is the sixth week of declines, with the average price premium finally falling below four dollars a gallon. Regular is up 49 cents and premium 47 cents from their interim weekly lows in the December 19th EIA report.
As I write this, GasBuddy.com still shows five states with the average price of gasoline above $4 and four states with the price above $3.90. California has the highest mainland prices, averaging around $4.31 a gallon.
How far are we from the interim high prices of 2011 and the all-time highs of 2008? Here’s the answer.
The next chart is an overlay of WTIC, Brent Crude and unleaded gasoline end-of-day spot prices (GASO). GASO hit its intraday high at 3.43 on April 3rd. It closed today at 2.82.

The volatility in crude oil and gasoline prices has been clearly reflected in recent years in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). For additional perspective on how energy prices are factored into the CPI, see What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index.
The chart below offers a comparison of the broader aggregate category of energy inflation since 2000, based on categories within Consumer Price Index (commentary here).
Market Recap – Rebound Begins, Education Tips, Apple and Facebook Updates
by Chart School - May 21st, 2012 5:45 pm
Courtesy of Blain.
Friday the market set its bottom as it traded massive volume and found critical support, and today the rebound kicked off with the NASDAQ adding 2.46% and the S&P 500 1.6%.
What’s great about days like today is that technical analysis shines. Tonight I am going to let the charts do all of the talking. Newer investors take note, some great notes lie below.
And lastly here is a look at Facebook’s (FB) first two days price action using a 10 minute char with MarketSmith,
S&P 500 Snapshot: Six-Day Losing Streak Is History
by Chart School - May 21st, 2012 5:35 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short.
The S&P 500′s six-day losing streak, the longest string of declines in 2012, is now over. The index closed the day with a gain 1.60%, which was close to the intraday high. We’re now back above the 1,300 level. The index is up 4.64% for 2012, which is 7.26% off the interim closing high set on April 2nd.
That was an apparently too-good-to-be-true year-to-date gain of 12.84% in 13 weeks.
From an intermediate perspective, the S&P 500 is 94.5% above the March 2009 closing low and 15.9% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.
Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.
For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.
These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.
Spain, Italy, Greece and the Forthcoming EU Summit
by Chart School - May 21st, 2012 4:35 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short.
Most of the major European indexes closed modestly higher today, the first day of a week that includes a highly anticipated EU summit, and a day after Gavyn Davies featured a sobering chart in his FT commentary, The Anatomy of the Eurozone Bank Run.
The EURO STOXX 50 index gained a quarter of a percent, and the Bloomberg table of European Stocks, which includes the STOXX 50 and the eight largest country indexes, showed only two declines for the day.

But the indexes highlighted in red are for the two countries that pose the biggest risks to the Eurozone. On May 9th, Spain’s IBEX 35 slipped fractionally below its historic March 2009 low. Six of the eight subsequent sessions have been losses.
Italy’s Milan index is fractionally higher than its 2009 trough, but the index down 24% since its 2012 interim high on March 19th.
The Athens Stock Exchange General Index is too small to be included in Bloomberg’s main list of European indexes. It fell 1.01% today but is 1.5% above its 20th century low set on May 17th.
The headline story today is national obsession with Facebook IPO. But a more important story of the week will be the outcome of the EU summit in Brussels.
Dollar struggles with resistance as investor sentiment in the 500 index reflects a ton of bears…Crossroads?
by Chart School - May 21st, 2012 4:02 pm
Courtesy of Chris Kimble.
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
Shared the sentiment chart (lower left) with Premium Members last week, reflecting a good deal of stock market bears are at hand, at the same time the Dollar continues to deal with strong overhead resistance.
This set up increases the odds of a short-term rally as it has in the past in the lower left chart.
Understanding the CFNAI Components
by Chart School - May 21st, 2012 11:35 am
Courtesy of Doug Short.
The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, which I reported on earlier today, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:
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The complete list is available here in PDF format.
A chart overlay of the complete 45-year span of all four categories, even if we use the three-month moving averages, is a bit challenging for visual clarity:
So here is a close-up view since 2000:
But a snapshot of the 21st century contains only two recessions, so it’s unclear how the individual components have behaved in during the seven recessions since the 1967 starting point for this data series.
Here is a set of charts showing each of the four components since 1967. Because of the highly volatile nature of the data, the charts are based on three-month moving averages, a smoothing strategy favored by the Chicago Fed economists:
There’s a lot to digest in the individual charts. Clearly the first two (production and income and employment and unemployment, and hours) are the more volatile of the quartet. It is also obvious that personal consumption and housing has been the biggest drag since the onset of the Great Recession. In fact, if I use the Excel default vertical axis (optimized for the data) rather than using the same vertical scale for all four components, the sustained lethargy of this CFNAI component is quite dramatic. We can readily see that it’s the clear outlier in the quartet.
Is another “Flag Breakdown” in the Shanghai index close at hand?
by Chart School - May 21st, 2012 10:50 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble.
A year ago this week, the Power of the Pattern was reflecting a multi-year flag pattern was breaking down in the Shanghai index reflected in the chart below (see Shanghai flag breakdown)
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
What has taken place over the past year once the flag breakdown took place? The BRIC/Emerging markets have lagged the S&P 500 by a large margin and the Commodities complex has continued to make a series of lower highs for the past year.
Below reflects the old flag pattern and how the Shanghai index is back up against falling resistance, inside of a “New Flag Pattern!”
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
Over the past 8 months, the Shanghai index has been forming another Flag pattern, with strong overhead falling resistance line (1) remaining in place.
Commodities have been struggling for the past year and public sentiment in the Commodities complex has become pretty crowded as investors have grown rather bearish in the Commodities complex….I shared the chart below with Premium Members a couple of weeks ago-
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
The CRB index has been down 11 of the past 12 weeks. With sentiment at these oversold levels and the last 90 days performance in the CRB being so poor, investors shouldn’t be surprised to see a bounce in Commodities for a while!
How the Shanghai index resolves the new flag will have much to say about the next several months commodities action…don’t lose sight of the Shanghai index!
Chicago Fed: Economic Activity Increased in April
by Chart School - May 21st, 2012 10:35 am
Courtesy of Doug Short.
According to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, April economic activity increased from March. This is the first increase after three consecutive declines. Here are the opening paragraphs from the report:
Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.11 in April from ?0.44 in March. Of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index, only the production and income category and sales, orders, and inventories category improved from March and made a positive contribution in April.
The index?s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked down to ?0.06 in April from +0.02 in March, falling below zero for the first time since November 2011. April?s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was near its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index also moved lower in April, declining to +0.10 from +0.19 in the previous month. Forty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 40 made negative contributions. Forty-six indicators improved from March to April, while 37 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, thirteen made negative contributions. [Download PDF News Release]
The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in this background PDF file on the Chicago Fed’s website. The index is constructed so that the historical index average is zero. Postive monthly values indicate above-average growth, negative values indicate below-average growth.
The first chart below is based on the complete CFNAI historical series dating from March 1967. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, and the 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which is more useful as an indicator of coincident economic activity. I’ve also highlighted official recessions.
For a clearer look at the recent behavior of the index, here is a closeup view since 2007. …
May Trading Jobs
by Chart School - May 20th, 2012 7:05 pm
Courtesy of Declan Fallon
Equity Trader; Short Hills, NJ.
West Power Trader – 12016301; Houston, TX
Midwest Power Trader - 12010743; Houston, TX.
Commodities Derivatives Natural Gas Options Trader
Manager, Active Trader Sales; Chicago
Securities Trader; Cincinnati, OH
Fixed Income Trader/Excel Specialist (Broker Dealer); $80K
ABCP Trader; $80-120K; New York
Equities Trader; New York
Equity Trader / Sales Trader; New Jersey
Experienced Trader (44-518)
Quant Trader Analyst; Chicago, IL
Junior Trader; Chicago, IL
Quantitative Derivatives Trader – 12008432
Trader; Chicago, $40-200K
Municipal Securities Trader
Trader for Investment Grade Bonds – 12014923; New York
Junior Java Developer – FX AutoTrader Team – 12012271
Securities Trader 3
Senior G10 Rates Trader – 12007756
Senior Trader, NTSI; Chicago, IL
Manager, Business Development / Trader – Commodities (SM); $90-110K, Sandy Springs
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Weekly Market Commentary: Another Heavy Week of Selling
by Chart School - May 20th, 2012 6:28 pm
Courtesy of Declan Fallon
Market Breadth is in swing low territory. The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above 50-day MA dropped sharply to 18% although stochastics for this breadth indicator have not yet reached oversold territory. Although the MACD histogram reached a new multi-year low – lower than the 2008 low.
The Nasdaq Summation Index has some way to go before turning oversold based on stochastics, although the Index is close to a swing low based on past occurrences.
The Nasdaq Bullish Percents is the only market breadth indicator which hasn’t yet reached swing low territory. Also, supporting stochastics only recently dropped out of overbought territory.
Last week’s losses left the 2012 Nasdaq rally high-and-dry. The decline is on course to test the broadening wedge with support around 2,600 (but rising).
The Russell 2000 broke the rising channel line and 760 support – a double whammy for the index. However, I think it more likely a large trading range bound by 625 support and 850 resistance will emerge from this decline; part of a consolidation of the rally from March 2009.
Finally, the S&P edged outside of its rising channel in a probable breakdown, but more worryingly, there was a ‘bull trap’ to the 1,370 breakout.




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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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