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Weekly Gasoline Update: Premium Now Below $4

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is my weekly gasoline chart update from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data with an overlay of West Texas Crude (WTIC). Gasoline prices at the pump, rounded to the penny, declined over the past week: regular is down four cents and premium is down five. This is the sixth week of declines, with the average price premium finally falling below four dollars a gallon. Regular is up 49 cents and premium 47 cents from their interim weekly lows in the December 19th EIA report.

As I write this, GasBuddy.com still shows five states with the average price of gasoline above $4 and four states with the price above $3.90. California has the highest mainland prices, averaging around $4.31 a gallon.

How far are we from the interim high prices of 2011 and the all-time highs of 2008? Here’s the answer.

 

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The next chart is an overlay of WTIC, Brent Crude and unleaded gasoline end-of-day spot prices (GASO). GASO hit its intraday high at 3.43 on April 3rd. It closed today at 2.82.

The volatility in crude oil and gasoline prices has been clearly reflected in recent years in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). For additional perspective on how energy prices are factored into the CPI, see What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index.

 

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The chart below offers a comparison of the broader aggregate category of energy inflation since 2000, based on categories within Consumer Price Index (commentary here).

 

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Market Recap – Rebound Begins, Education Tips, Apple and Facebook Updates

Courtesy of Blain.

Friday the market set its bottom as it traded massive volume and found critical support, and today the rebound kicked off with the NASDAQ adding 2.46% and the S&P 500 1.6%.

What’s great about days like today is that technical analysis shines. Tonight I am going to let the charts do all of the talking. Newer investors take note, some great notes lie below.

And lastly here is a look at Facebook’s (FB) first two days price action using a 10 minute char with MarketSmith,




S&P 500 Snapshot: Six-Day Losing Streak Is History

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The S&P 500′s six-day losing streak, the longest string of declines in 2012, is now over. The index closed the day with a gain 1.60%, which was close to the intraday high. We’re now back above the 1,300 level. The index is up 4.64% for 2012, which is 7.26% off the interim closing high set on April 2nd.

That was an apparently too-good-to-be-true year-to-date gain of 12.84% in 13 weeks.

From an intermediate perspective, the S&P 500 is 94.5% above the March 2009 closing low and 15.9% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.

 

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For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.

 

 

 

 




Spain, Italy, Greece and the Forthcoming EU Summit

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Most of the major European indexes closed modestly higher today, the first day of a week that includes a highly anticipated EU summit, and a day after Gavyn Davies featured a sobering chart in his FT commentary, The Anatomy of the Eurozone Bank Run.

The EURO STOXX 50 index gained a quarter of a percent, and the Bloomberg table of European Stocks, which includes the STOXX 50 and the eight largest country indexes, showed only two declines for the day.

But the indexes highlighted in red are for the two countries that pose the biggest risks to the Eurozone. On May 9th, Spain’s IBEX 35 slipped fractionally below its historic March 2009 low. Six of the eight subsequent sessions have been losses.

 

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Italy’s Milan index is fractionally higher than its 2009 trough, but the index down 24% since its 2012 interim high on March 19th.

 

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The Athens Stock Exchange General Index is too small to be included in Bloomberg’s main list of European indexes. It fell 1.01% today but is 1.5% above its 20th century low set on May 17th.

 

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The headline story today is national obsession with Facebook IPO. But a more important story of the week will be the outcome of the EU summit in Brussels.

 

 

 

 

 

 




Dollar struggles with resistance as investor sentiment in the 500 index reflects a ton of bears…Crossroads?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Shared the sentiment chart (lower left) with Premium Members last week, reflecting a good deal of stock market bears are at hand, at the same time the Dollar continues to deal with strong overhead resistance.

 This set up increases the odds of a short-term rally as it has in the past in the lower left chart.




Understanding the CFNAI Components

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, which I reported on earlier today, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data:

  • Production and Income
  • Employment, Unemployment, and Hours
  • Personal Consumption and Housing
  • Sales, Orders, and Inventories

The complete list is available here in PDF format.

A chart overlay of the complete 45-year span of all four categories, even if we use the three-month moving averages, is a bit challenging for visual clarity:

 

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So here is a close-up view since 2000:

 

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But a snapshot of the 21st century contains only two recessions, so it’s unclear how the individual components have behaved in during the seven recessions since the 1967 starting point for this data series.

Here is a set of charts showing each of the four components since 1967. Because of the highly volatile nature of the data, the charts are based on three-month moving averages, a smoothing strategy favored by the Chicago Fed economists:

 

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There’s a lot to digest in the individual charts. Clearly the first two (production and income and employment and unemployment, and hours) are the more volatile of the quartet. It is also obvious that personal consumption and housing has been the biggest drag since the onset of the Great Recession. In fact, if I use the Excel default vertical axis (optimized for the data) rather than using the same vertical scale for all four components, the sustained lethargy of this CFNAI component is quite dramatic. We can readily see that it’s the clear outlier in the quartet.

 

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Is another “Flag Breakdown” in the Shanghai index close at hand?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

A year ago this week, the Power of the Pattern was reflecting a multi-year flag pattern was breaking down in the Shanghai index reflected in the chart below (see Shanghai flag breakdown)

 CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

What has taken place over the past year once the flag breakdown took place? The BRIC/Emerging markets have lagged the S&P 500 by a large margin and the Commodities complex has continued to make a series of lower highs for the past year. 

Below reflects the old flag pattern and how the Shanghai index is back up against falling resistance, inside of a “New Flag Pattern!”

 CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Over the past 8 months, the Shanghai index has been forming another Flag pattern, with strong overhead falling resistance line (1) remaining in place.

Commodities have been struggling for the past year and public sentiment in the Commodities complex has become pretty crowded as investors have grown rather bearish in the Commodities complex….I shared the chart below with Premium Members a couple of weeks ago-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The CRB index has been down 11 of the past 12 weeks.  With sentiment at these oversold levels and the last 90 days performance in the CRB being so poor, investors shouldn’t be surprised to see a bounce in Commodities for a while! 

How the Shanghai index resolves the new flag will have much to say about the next several months commodities action…don’t lose sight of the Shanghai index!

 

 




Chicago Fed: Economic Activity Increased in April

Courtesy of Doug Short.

According to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, April economic activity increased from March. This is the first increase after three consecutive declines. Here are the opening paragraphs from the report:

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.11 in April from ?0.44 in March. Of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index, only the production and income category and sales, orders, and inventories category improved from March and made a positive contribution in April.

The index?s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked down to ?0.06 in April from +0.02 in March, falling below zero for the first time since November 2011. April?s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was near its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index also moved lower in April, declining to +0.10 from +0.19 in the previous month. Forty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 40 made negative contributions. Forty-six indicators improved from March to April, while 37 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, thirteen made negative contributions. [Download PDF News Release]

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in this background PDF file on the Chicago Fed’s website. The index is constructed so that the historical index average is zero. Postive monthly values indicate above-average growth, negative values indicate below-average growth.

The first chart below is based on the complete CFNAI historical series dating from March 1967. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, and the 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which is more useful as an indicator of coincident economic activity. I’ve also highlighted official recessions.

 

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For a clearer look at the recent behavior of the index, here is a closeup view since 2007. …
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Weekly Market Commentary: Another Heavy Week of Selling

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

Markets were left in an interesting position by Friday’s close.  Ordinarily, I like to be a buyer when the S&P is at least 10% below its 200-day MA and sector breadth is in the position it’s in, but I think there is enough here to have me jump in on Monday’s open and add to my long term positions.   I suspect there will be a big one day gain to help establish the swing low. But I doubt it will be the absolute low for the current decline; at the same time, I don’t want to be looking at a swing low with hindsight!

Market Breadth is in swing low territory.  The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above 50-day MA dropped sharply to 18% although stochastics for this breadth indicator have not yet reached oversold territory.  Although the MACD histogram reached a new multi-year low – lower than the 2008 low.

The Nasdaq Summation Index has some way to go before turning oversold based on stochastics, although the Index is close to a swing low based on past occurrences.

The Nasdaq Bullish Percents is the only market breadth indicator which hasn’t yet reached swing low territory.  Also, supporting stochastics only recently dropped out of overbought territory.

Last week’s losses left the 2012 Nasdaq rally high-and-dry.  The decline is on course to test the broadening wedge with support around 2,600 (but rising).

The Russell 2000 broke the rising channel line and 760 support – a double whammy for the index. However, I think it more likely a large trading range bound by 625 support and 850 resistance will emerge from this decline; part of a consolidation of the rally from March 2009.

Finally, the S&P edged outside of its rising channel in a probable breakdown, but more worryingly, there was a ‘bull trap’ to the 1,370 breakout.


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Chart School

The ''Real'' Goods on the Latest Durable Goods Orders

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Earlier this morning I posted an update on the May Advance Report on April Durable Goods Orders. This Census Bureau series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation.

Let's now review the same data with two adjustments. In the charts below the red line shows the goods orders divided by the Census Bureau's monthly population data, giving us durable goods orders per capita. The blue line goes a step further and adjusts for inflation based on the Producer Price Index, chained in today's dollar value. This gives us the "real" durable goods orders per capita. The snapshots below offer a quite sobering corrective to the standard reports on the nominal monthly data (which itself was significantly below expectations).

...

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Zero Hedge

The GEURO: "The Only Winners Are Foreign Banks"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In a brief though detailed clip, Stratfor's VP Peter Zeihan discusses the risk of contagion from Greece and the 'creative' - if not self-centered - suggestions for a solution to these problems. Earlier in the week we described Deutsche's suggestion of a dual currency - the GEURO - and that is where Zeihan focuses, noting that "The Greek economy is as deliciously non-competitive as the German economy is hyper-competitive" - this mismatch is the core of the crisis. The GEURO (tradin...



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Insider Scoop

New York Stock Exchange Spokesperson Says There Have Been No Discussions with Facebook About Switching

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Rich Adamonis, NYSE (NYSE: NYX) spokesperson told Benzinga "In response to incorrect reports re: NYX and Facebook (NDAQ: FB): There have been no discussions with Facebook regarding switching their listing in light of the events of the last week, nor do we think a discussion along those lines would be appropriate at this time.”

document.write("") (c) 2012 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.


For more Benzinga, visit Benzinga Professional Service, ...

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Market Montage

Chinese, European Data Continues to Weaken as Market Potentially Forming New Bear Flag

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

First we'll go to the technicals.  Back in mid April I had opined a 'bear flag' formation was being created. [Apr 17, 2012: Potential Bear Flag Forming]  But the market being the difficult beast it is, head faked everyone and rather than a break down from said flag it first went UP and nearly touched yearly highs.  This caused everyone to think the bear flag had failed…. only to lead to a horrid May in the market.  Generally a bear flag will resolve relatively quickly but the longer...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: New “Grecian Formula” is making us all gray

Courtesy of Scott Martindale, Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite the fact that U.S. equities are well-positioned and well-supported to go up, once again it is the headlines out of Europe—especially Greece—that are scaring off investors. Some are saying that it is now likely (and even desirable) that Greece will default on all its sovereign debt, withdraw from the euro, and severely devalue its domestic currency (Drachma?). This will allow them to operate a balanced budget while pumping cash into growth initiatives, rather than suffer the ravages of Germany-mandated austerity.

Some say, so what? Greece makes up only about 2% of the Eurozone’s overall economy. Nevertheless, you might say that this new “Grecian Formula” is creating the opposite effect to the men’s hair product, i.e.., rather than losing the gray we are al...



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Phil's Favorites

Rumors and Denials of Rumors

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner

The market rallied higher once again on more rumors (some kind of unworkable bank deposit scheme: what Europe’s loan-deposit ratios look like), and denials of yesterday’s rumors (L-Pap now says Greece to say in EU, blah, blah).  The second chart shows what’s involved with PIIGS banking deposits.  Using hook theory,  trading rumors is the modus operandi, and not just plain rumors; but rather, inside-job rumors.  It’s only a matter of time before this market collapses, but one has to slough through the rigged foul stench along the way. Fund managers scramble all over themselves to load up on “safe” German Bunds and US Treasuries [...



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ETF Selector

Markets Die Then Flatten…Again (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, FB)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Markets died and then rallied to flat again as European leaders “prepared contingencies” for a possible Grexit

Markets died hard and fast earlier today as major indexes registered as much as 1.5% of losses after news that Euro zone officials were unofficially “preparing contingencies” for a Greek exit from the Euro.  Unofficial statements were not enough to keep markets down however, as major indexes rallied back to flat levels by the end of the day.

So the world continues to wait on Europe, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEACA:SPY) gained .05%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:...



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Option Review

AT&T Weekly Puts In Play

 

Today’s tickers: T, FXE & OI

T - AT&T, Inc. – U.S. equities are on the decline as Europe’s woes once again take center stage. Shares in AT&T, down 0.90% at $33.24 this afternoon, are faring better than most of the other Dow components so far, though options activity on the wireless carrier suggests some strategists are bracing for further declines ahead of the long w...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 21st, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: Test Issue

NEW: Ilene is available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here is this week's test version of the latest newsletter. We apologize for some formatting issues that need to be worked out. Please tell us what you think. 

Click on Stock World Weekly here, and sign in/sign up.

...

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Pharmboy

Big Pharma - Where Are We Now?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

In this article, please revisit an article written two years ago titled, "The Calm Before the Storm."  This article focused on the patent cliff that was looming in the pharmaceutical industry, that was later picked up by the New York Times and several other bloggers!  Subsequent articles were written about big pharma company's revenue streams, and the pros and cons of of their later stage pipelines.  Other articles have also attempted to identify smaller biotechs with the potential to reap big reward...



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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 2/26/2012

My last weekend update is dated from January 30 so after a long hiatus, here is an update of our virtual portfolio. Since the last update, we have closed the AA Money portfolio due to a lack of enthusiasm (and activity) and I have stopped tracking the FAS strangle as the low VIX makes it hard to get rewarded for the risk! But we have added a small $5KP virtual portfolio which does not use any margin. FAS Money We have had to recover from a big move up by FAS and a low VIX which keeps option prices low. But the portfolio has gaine about 10% since the last update. Last update P&L - $5499.00 IWM Money Not a lot of activity in this portfolio where the main focus is on the large IWM BCS. But the portfolio has grown over 20% since the last update. Last update P&L - $1998.00 $5KP Portfolio This is the virtual portfolio that replaced the AA Money portfolio. It does not use margin and we will keep holdings under $5K. AAPL $50K P...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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