Dave’s Daily
by David Fry - June 2nd, 2009 12:07 am
Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, June 1, 2009
Friday afternoon’s last minute major ramp job set the stage for today’s breakout. It was either pure manipulation, margin call recklessness before month end or some combination of black box strategies. Rumors swirled that it was JPM in the pits buying tens of thousands of S&P futures contracts with some leftover TARP money. Others suggest a conspiracy that it was the government. We’ll never know probably.
The set-up is well chronicled by Karl Denninger of The Market Ticker. (Please read his excellent recapitulation of these events). He does an excellent job in describing the action.
This led to a follow-through in Asia and Europe. In the US we got the usual “better than expected” reports from Industrial Production and Construction. Having pushed through the 200-day MA that sucked-in money from bonds and we were off to the races.
So, was this an engineered and/or mechanical event? Who’s to say? I found the entire episode manipulative and upsetting.
Volume wasn’t as spectacular as price action but breadth was as positive as one would expect.
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DiggDave’s Daily
by David Fry - May 28th, 2009 10:46 pm
- Use light volume to push your book and the financial media. (Bill Gross)
- Use government money to trade. (TARP)
- Paint the tape at the end of the month. (Business as usual)
- Ignore any bad news. (All the downward revisions to previous data today)
- Little guys should stay out of the way. (You and me?)
Okay, one day down and one more to go before the end of the month. Bulls got in a “relief rally” that bonds didn’t collapse after another auction. It’s a little too comical that Bill Gross comes on the airwaves to talk his book that bonds were good value now. It’s laughably transparent.
If bulls can bust it out of this range we’ve been in bully for them. Then the “sell in May and go away” maxim will be forgotten. Or, a “June Swoon”?
Volume did pick up some today but it’s still relatively light while breadth was positive.
We’ll do things a little differently today with daily/monthly views of just the major indexes and a few other key markets.
This is all I’m going to do today. As we wrap up May we should step back and look at just a few charts from short and long-term perspectives. I think it’s helpful—besides, I’m pooped.
If you want to play the game you first should know the rules. It wouldn’t hurt if you were a major bank that screwed-up big time. Then you’d get taxpayer money to trade.
The bulls have another shot at it tomorrow with GDP, Chicago PMI and more Consumer Sentiment data. Let’s see how they spin it since they did well today ignoring all bad data.
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: IEF, TLT, TBT, UDN, GLD, and DBC.
The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.
Dave’s Daily
by David Fry - May 27th, 2009 7:18 pm
MARKET COMMENT
Dave Fry at ETF Digest, May 27, 2009
It sure looks like a replay developing to me. A “worse than expected” Treasury auction was the instigator today combined with little help from the ubiquitous “better than expected” news.
We have more news ahead (don’t we always) tomorrow (Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims and New Home Sales) and Friday (GDP, Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment) These have a lot of spin potential for either side in this tug of war and I think they may tell the tale going forward.
Volume is still on the light side but breadth undid yesterday’s big advance.
It does seem like a repeat performance from last week, but I believe the next two days will prove significant one way or another. After all, it’s the end of the month and tape painters will be out. Besides, I’ve made a big prediction—up, down or sideways!
Other than some scattered positions we’re heavily in cash. One day we feel stupid then the next okay. As ETF Digest Sacred Cow VII advises:
AT ANY GIVEN TIME, THE MARKET CAN MAKE ANYONE LOOK LIKE AN IDIOT--ALWAYS.
Let’s see what happens over the next two days.
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: IEF, TLT, TBT, BWX, UDN, GLD, DBC and DBA.
The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.
Dave’s Daily
by David Fry - May 27th, 2009 4:20 am
MARKET COMMENT
Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, May 26, 2009
There they go again, jumping all over themselves buying on any shred of good news. Today consumer confidence data got them all jazzed up. Just remember two things: the markets had gotten a little oversold and bulls (trading desks and hedge funds) are the major players currently.
Volume continues to be on the light side but breadth was excellent.
So, it’s that “better than expected” deal again, eh? Ignore the “worse than expected” housing data and focus on what suits your purpose. But, again, it’s been a trader’s market. We’re also approaching the end of the month in just a handful of days so there’s a desire to make things look good. It’s the way things work.
The bond market is the big loser and it’s about time. The worse it gets the bigger a drag that may be on stocks.
In the bag of tricks department is the Bloomberg story I alluded to in the financial chart which outlines the accounting trickery for banks like JPM in their WaMu transaction.
The best news of the day comes from healthcare. Since many of you have written and expressed your concern I’ll let you know the doctors have given us good news for Francie. She probably won’t need chemotherapy or radiation. This has surprised them and us in a great way. Now, the only problem is the Fryguy here has pneumonia, but that will go away soon enough. I assume despite the medications this report was lucid…er, right?
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: IEF, TLT, TBT, UDN, DBV, GLD, DBC and DBA.
The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.
Dave’s Daily
by David Fry - May 21st, 2009 9:19 pm
MARKET COMMENT
Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, May 21, 2009
Artist Donna Walsh has her artwork titled as such. It’s ripped off here because I liked it and it serves as a metaphor for traders leaving Manhattan for the Hamptons with their saddlebags full of secondary offering deal loot. The good folks in Dodge are left gypped. It’s like I was saying yesterday, Da Boyz have secondary offerings to get placed and clients better play ball or be cut off from future tips and deals.
The hangover from yesterday’s Fed minutes lingered today. Bulls weren’t helped by jobs data, Leading Indicators and the Philly Fed survey. More importantly is the ongoing sharp decline in the dollar and worries about credit ratings of the US and Great Britain negatively affected bond prices. Interesting times, eh?
Volume remains on the light side but breadth both sucked and blowed.
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Dave’s Daily
by David Fry - May 20th, 2009 9:00 pm
Dave Fry at ETF Digest, May 20, 2009
Wall Street has deals to get done and they were excited about BAC’s secondary this morning. The way these things work is simple: if you’re an institution, you better play ball and buy or you’re cut out of future deals you might really like.
So we opened higher amid this enthusiasm and the bad news from HPQ last night was brushed-off. That’s the way it’s been with news—front burner it, back burner it and repeat.
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Dave’s Daily
by David Fry - May 19th, 2009 8:26 pm
"This way we’d know who owns them," Lol, what a great idea! – Ilene
MARKET COMMENT
Dave Fry, ETF Digest, May 19, 2009
That’s NASCAR driver Jeff Gordon pictured above festooned with sponsor logos. I’ve been thinking that politicians from the president down to an elected town clerk should be decorated like this. This way we’d know who owns them versus the people they were elected to represent. You’d have some with Goldman Sachs caps, UAW T-shirts and NEA jackets and etc. It would be fun and make things clear to us sheeple.
Okay, enough of the fun stuff and on to markets.
You know, sometimes bad news is really just what it seems no matter how some spin it. Housing Starts were “worse than expected” and GS Same Store Sales were also “less than expected”. That’s not bottom-type news bulls were hoping for but let’s give them credit for keeping the damage to a minimum.
Volume remains light and breadth was positive—mostly on the NASDAQ.
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Dave’s Daily
by David Fry - May 18th, 2009 10:11 pm
Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, May 18, 2009
Like for Old Lodge Skins (Chief Dan George) that’s sort of the way technical analysis works or doesn’t sometimes. We moved to the sidelines for the most part today. Was that smart? It’s too soon to say but we didn’t get the high that’s for sure.
One has to bow to the coordinated efforts to boost banks by Goldman Sachs among others, a rosier “the bottoms in” forecast from Lowes, the fact that we were a little oversold and, of course, the always conflicted organizations like the National Homebuilders (housing in a “slump”) and National Association of Realtors (prices are “stable”).
The Street has a lot of IPOs (some small followed by an AIG subsidiary attempt) and secondary offerings to sell you and they need to prop things up to get it done. Goldman Sachs putting out buy recommendations on BAC when there are secondary issues within the industry is transparent since they know what will lift one will lift all.
Da Boyz are playing with risk-free money from government injections and they know how to get things going. It’s hard to play against the house especially with volume still light.
Actually, volume was late summertime light today while breadth was as positive as one might expect.
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Dave’s Daily
by David Fry - May 16th, 2009 1:34 pm
Best wishes to Dave Fry and family from all of us at Phil’s Stock World!
*****
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Dave’s Daily
by David Fry - May 13th, 2009 6:59 pm
MARKET COMMENT
Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, May 13, 2009
Retail sales and foreclosure filings were, ahem, “worse than expected”. Markets have been looking toppy and moving around on light volume as indicated in previous postings. But dip buyers have been persistent even when the news was bad but spun as “better than expected”. Not so today.
Breadth was decidedly negative but volume remains modest.
Dave’s Daily turns to daily charts since occasionally, like now, they’re significant. You can see clearly how many markets have responded to the 200 day Moving Averages. Sometimes these act as resistance and then support if surpassed.
Markets often end a run in an ugly manner and this may be what’s taking place now. It’s really hard to know but clearly the news hasn’t supported this major rally despite stress tests, green shoots and other happy talk. For a trend follower, the news must follow the trend. That’s the fuel any trend needs whether bearish or bullish. I don’t see the supportive news. The markets are getting oversold and Da Boyz could step in at any time to push things back up. They have a lot at stake in that regard.
Finally, I won’t be publishing tomorrow as my wife will be undergoing surgery tomorrow and I’ll be at the hospital all day.
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: SPY, MDY, IWM, QQQQ, XLY, XLB, XLU, IYR, IEF, TLT, TBT, UDN, DBC, DBA, MOO, EFA, EEM, EWZ, IFN and FXI.
The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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