New Members Entry Point – If you’ve arrived on this page looking for the k1 Project and all the reference material on Phil’s strategy, follow this: Front Page of the K1 Project.
New Members Entry Point – If you’ve arrived on this page looking for the k1 Project and all the reference material on Phil’s strategy, follow this: Front Page of the K1 Project.
New Members Entry Point – If you’ve arrived on this page looking for the k1 Project and all the reference material on Phil’s strategy, follow this: Front Page of the K1 Project
Here’s an easy link to the front page for the k1 project, which gets buried in the archives thanks to the way WordPress (the software engine underneath PSW) manages articles
Probably the most important thing to think about when trading (who’s playing the space and at what times?). very good knowledge to have. I’ve said this in past posts many times buy I HIGHLY suggest everyone read this book: Mind over Markets (by James F. Dalton).
Not a holy grail or system trading, just a methodical approach to understanding the players in the market and when they’re in it. Even if you don’t use the CBOE Market Profile, you’ll learn a lot about who’s in the market when with this book.
As a useful add-on to the book, member Alfred Toy adds:
When Napoleon was asked which generals to take to war Napoleon answered "Give me the Lucky ones." – optiondragon
For the past 4 years I have been perfecting the Earnings 3 ways method. One of my specialties is event catalyst volatility plays. – optiondragon
One of my best friends Dad didn’t believe that I made $200,000 strangling GOOG earnings back in 2005 2nd Q earnings. I run into these people everday. I just shrug my shoulders and move on when they don’t take my ($1000)bet that i did. What are u gonna do? – optiondragon
The LTP strategy is the core of Phil’s approach. Though the minute-to-minute action through comments might lead you to think otherwise, the central elements of the LTP strategy are fundamental to any understanding of Phil’s approach:
I have come to doubt the veracity of Phil’s professed performance returns, as well as the usefulness of his strategy. Caveat Emptor – k1
"The will to win means nothing without the will to prepare." – Juma Ikangaa
Welcome friends to a journey I began this past summer, to understand how a trader and blogger who kept coming up in my Quicken news source (by way of SeekingAlpha) was consistently producing the kinds of returns I had been taught to believe could only be snake oil.
"Hedging is, in part, an admission that you may not know everything – that you may in fact, be wrong about a few things and are willing to pay to insure against that possibility." – Phil
Earlier this morning I posted an update on the May Advance Report on April Durable Goods Orders. This Census Bureau series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation.
Let's now review the same data with two adjustments. In the charts below the red line shows the goods orders divided by the Census Bureau's monthly population data, giving us durable goods orders per capita. The blue line goes a step further and adjusts for inflation based on the Producer Price Index, chained in today's dollar value. This gives us the "real" durable goods orders per capita. The snapshots below offer a quite sobering corrective to the standard reports on the nominal monthly data (which itself was significantly below expectations).
In a brief though detailed clip, Stratfor's VP Peter Zeihan discusses the risk of contagion from Greece and the 'creative' - if not self-centered - suggestions for a solution to these problems. Earlier in the week we described Deutsche's suggestion of a dual currency - the GEURO - and that is where Zeihan focuses, noting that "The Greek economy is as deliciously non-competitive as the German economy is hyper-competitive" - this mismatch is the core of the crisis. The GEURO (tradin...
Rich Adamonis, NYSE (NYSE: NYX) spokesperson told Benzinga "In response to incorrect reports re: NYX and Facebook (NDAQ: FB): There have been no discussions with Facebook regarding switching their listing in light of the events of the last week, nor do we think a discussion along those lines would be appropriate at this time.”
First we'll go to the technicals. Back in mid April I had opined a 'bear flag' formation was being created. [Apr 17, 2012: Potential Bear Flag Forming] But the market being the difficult beast it is, head faked everyone and rather than a break down from said flag it first went UP and nearly touched yearly highs. This caused everyone to think the bear flag had failed…. only to lead to a horrid May in the market. Generally a bear flag will resolve relatively quickly but the longer...
Despite the fact that U.S. equities are well-positioned and well-supported to go up, once again it is the headlines out of Europe—especially Greece—that are scaring off investors. Some are saying that it is now likely (and even desirable) that Greece will default on all its sovereign debt, withdraw from the euro, and severely devalue its domestic currency (Drachma?). This will allow them to operate a balanced budget while pumping cash into growth initiatives, rather than suffer the ravages of Germany-mandated austerity.
Some say, so what? Greece makes up only about 2% of the Eurozone’s overall economy. Nevertheless, you might say that this new “Grecian Formula” is creating the opposite effect to the men’s hair product, i.e.., rather than losing the gray we are al...
The market rallied higher once again on more rumors (some kind of unworkable bank deposit scheme: what Europe’s loan-deposit ratios look like), and denials of yesterday’s rumors (L-Pap now says Greece to say in EU, blah, blah). The second chart shows what’s involved with PIIGS banking deposits. Using hook theory, trading rumors is the modus operandi, and not just plain rumors; but rather, inside-job rumors. It’s only a matter of time before this market collapses, but one has to slough through the rigged foul stench along the way. Fund managers scramble all over themselves to load up on “safe” German Bunds and US Treasuries [...
Markets died and then rallied to flat again as European leaders “prepared contingencies” for a possible Grexit
Markets died hard and fast earlier today as major indexes registered as much as 1.5% of losses after news that Euro zone officials were unofficially “preparing contingencies” for a Greek exit from the Euro. Unofficial statements were not enough to keep markets down however, as major indexes rallied back to flat levels by the end of the day.
So the world continues to wait on Europe, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEACA:SPY) gained .05%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:...
T - AT&T, Inc. – U.S. equities are on the decline as Europe’s woes once again take center stage. Shares in AT&T, down 0.90% at $33.24 this afternoon, are faring better than most of the other Dow components so far, though options activity on the wireless carrier suggests some strategists are bracing for further declines ahead of the long w...
To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
NEW: Ilene is available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here is this week's test version of the latest newsletter. We apologize for some formatting issues that need to be worked out. Please tell us what you think.
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
In this article, please revisit an article written two years ago titled, "The Calm Before the Storm." This article focused on the patent cliff that was looming in the pharmaceutical industry, that was later picked up by the New York Times and several other bloggers! Subsequent articles were written about big pharma company's revenue streams, and the pros and cons of of their later stage pipelines. Other articles have also attempted to identify smaller biotechs with the potential to reap big reward...
My last weekend update is dated from January 30 so after a long hiatus, here is an update of our virtual portfolio. Since the last update, we have closed the AA Money portfolio due to a lack of enthusiasm (and activity) and I have stopped tracking the FAS strangle as the low VIX makes it hard to get rewarded for the risk! But we have added a small $5KP virtual portfolio which does not use any margin.
FAS Money
We have had to recover from a big move up by FAS and a low VIX which keeps option prices low. But the portfolio has gaine about 10% since the last update.
Last update P&L - $5499.00
IWM Money
Not a lot of activity in this portfolio where the main focus is on the large IWM BCS. But the portfolio has grown over 20% since the last update.
Last update P&L - $1998.00
$5KP Portfolio
This is the virtual portfolio that replaced the AA Money portfolio. It does not use margin and we will keep holdings under $5K.
AAPL $50K P...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(