Author Archive for kimblechartingsolutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ breaks support at (1), it should attract selling pressure. If it falls hard, the decline could well put the hurts to Emerging markets (EEM) and potentially ripple into the stock market in the states!!!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





King Dollar; Breaking 3-year support, Kiss Good-Bye?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The US Dollar looks to have kissed the underside of key resistance and is starting to fall. Is this a “Kiss Good-Bye” for King Dollar? Below looks at the US Dollar over the past two years.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

King$ remains in a short-term falling channel, shaded in pink. Last week it kissed the underside of potential dual resistance at (2), creating a reversal pattern (bearish wick) at (2). So far this week, US$ remains a little soft and is attempting to break last weeks low at (3). Weakness here could suggest that King$ just kissed the underside of an important resistance level, which could lead to further US$ selling pressure.

Below looks at King$ over the past 25-years-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

King$ hit 20-year resistance 5-months ago at (1) and has been falling in price. King$ looks to have kissed the underside of dual resistance last week and it is attempting to break rising support at (2). A break of support at (2), could cause concerns for those long and selling pressure could come forward and put a big dent in multi-year King$ rally!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Junior Miners ; Big loss presents opporunity, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Junior Miner ETF has had a rough go of it the past 90- days. Could that large decline, present an opportunity? Below looks at the performance of GDXJ over 90-day windows since inception.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

GDXJ has fallen nearly 25% over the past 90-days. When GDXJ has been down this hard in a 90-day window, in during a bear market, it was closer to a short-term low than a high. Below looks at the chart pattern of GDXJ and the GDXJ/GDX ratio.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Joe Friday Just The Facts- The large decline and the two charts directly above reflect that GDXJ was presenting a entry point, where a really should take place.

Both of these charts were shared on Wednesday with Premium and Metals members. We would be honored to have you as a member, if these type of patterns are of interest to you.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Fear Index (VIX); Testing 2007 level support level!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the VIX index over the past decade. Over the past three weeks, the VIX has been falling sharply, over 40%. This decline has our attention from a Power of the Pattern perspective, see why below.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Over the past 7-years, the VIX has remained inside of falling channel (1). Line (2), is a parallel line of falling channel (1). The VIX index is now testing the lows of 2007 and line (2) at (3). When the VIX hit this level in 2007, it skyrocketed.

This price level could become a very important level for the VIX index and potentially could send an important message to the bullish trend in stocks.

The collapse in Fear has been great for ETF XIV, as it has rallied over 25% in the past three weeks. Premium and Sector members have been long the XIV trade and now they are harvesting gains and pulling up stops. See good news of fear collapse post (HERE).

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Collapsing Fear; Great news for anti-fear trade!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Three weeks ago yesterday, the Fear Index (VIX), was pushing sharply higher, on a very small decline in the S&P 500. When this happened, the Power of the Pattern was suggest to go against the crowd. Below looks at the VIX index over the past 10-years.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The rally in the VIX pushed it to the underside of falling resistance at (1) and a key Fibonacci retracement level (not shown). The Power of the Pattern was suggesting three weeks ago to short the VIX at (1), with a tight stop.

Premium and Sector members shorted the VIX by purchase XIV (see chart below)

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Since hitting a cluster of support at (1), XIV has blasted off. In a matter of 3-weeks, XIV which was testing rising channel (A) support, is now nearing the top of rising channel at (2).

XIV has made as much in the past 3-weeks, as the S&P 500 has since January 1 of 2016. Members are now selling into strength and raising stops, at the position is up over 25% in 15 business days.

If you would like to get Power of the Pattern charts and trade ideas on the fear trade, we would be honored if you were a Premium or Sectors member.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Stocks don’t want to see weakness here, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Many seem to be talking about the growth/reflation theme that has taken place post election. Did this theme really start improving post election? The chart below would put a little question into the date. Below looks at the TR Commodity index over the past 40-years. The index hit support at (1) and started to moving higher. When did the index hit a low last year on a monthly closing basis? The monthly low took place at the end of February 2016, 9-months “before” the election.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The index remains in a downtrend since the highs back in 2011, which looks to have formed the head, of a multi-year head & shoulder topping pattern. The swift decline that started in July of 2014, took it down to support at (1). This is where a counter trend rally started, that many call the reflation/growth rally. Regardless of what label one wants to put on the rally, the index did hit triple resistance in a downtrend at (2) and has turned south of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts– The growth/reflation theme would be put into question, if neckline support at (1), would happen to give way! A support break at (1), would suggest that dis-inflation or de-flation is in play.

So far weakness in the index since the highs back in 2011, has not impacted stocks in a negative way at all. Stocks and this index did bottom together at (1) and both have struggled a little, as resistance was hit at (2) in the chart above.

Below looks at Crude Oil over the past decade and what is taking place after it hit an 800-pound resistance line.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Crude Oil and the NYSE index don’t always correlate. They have over the past two years. With Crude kissing the underside of 800 pound resistance at (2) and turning lower, stock bulls hope that either Crude bounces back or correlations between the two end.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Doc Copper; Head & Shoulders top completed?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

A good deal of talk going around the street since the election last year, has revolved around the “reflation theme!” Below looks at a couple of charts that could be suggesting that the reflation theme could be peaking.

First we take a look at the price pattern Ole “Doc Copper” is creating.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Copper so far, continues to make a series of lower highs over the past 6-years. Copper hit three year falling resistance at (1) and has backed off in price. While hitting this resistance, Copper has created three different bearish reversal patterns (bearish wicks) and potentially a head & shoulders topping pattern. This week Doc Copper could be putting the finishing touches on the right shoulder at (2).

The key to this pattern now? Can Doc Copper remain above the neckline, just below (2). IF support does not hold here, selling pressure could increase.

Below looks at the Copper/Gold ratio and the yield on the 10-year note.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

If the reflation/growth theme is to continue (be the real deal), Ole Doc Copper, 10-year yields and the Copper/Gold ratio needs to breakout to the upside, not be putting in lower highs and acting weaker.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





London; Breaking support of bearish rising wedge?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the FTSE 100 index from London, over the past 30-years. The long-term trend in this important index from Europe remains up, as it has created a series of highs lower and higher highs, since the 2009 lows. The FTSE has spent the majority of the past 25-years, inside of rising channel (1).

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Line (2) is a parallel line of (1). This line was placed on the 2008 counter trend highs, creating another lower parallel rising channel. Line (2) was hit as resistance on the first week of spring (3/17/17) at the apex of a bearish rising wedge at (3). Since then, the index has created a series of lower highs over the past 6-weeks and has broke below support of the rising wedge pattern at (4). The index is down around 3% since hitting dual resistance at (3), nothing big at this time.

Bulls in the states want to see this important index from Europe, heading higher, not reflecting weakness. With the trend in the index still being up, bulls should’t be too alarmed at this time.

What level should the bulls be concerned?  If the FTSE would happen to break below 2000 highs at the 6,950 zone, then this index would send a concerning message to the states.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Coffee; Potential reversal wick at triple support

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Coffee has been pretty ice cold since November of 2016, as its lost nearly a third of its value. Could this large 6-month decline turn into an opportunity? Below looks at Coffee ETF (JO) over the past few years.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The decline over the past 6-months in JO, has it testing triple support last week at (1). While at this potential support zone, JO attempted to create a bullish wick (reversal pattern) last week at (1). Bullish sentiment towards coffee has declined along with the price over the past 6-months, to the 29% level.

The trend in Coffee (JO) remains down, as it has created a series of lower highs for years. One weeks reversal action does not prove that a trend reversal is in play. The first step towards proving that a trend reversal could be in play, would be an overhead breakout at (2).

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Gold Miners; Largest outflows in history could be bullish, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Could historical outflows present an opportunity? Yesterday Sentimentrader.com reported that outflows from Gold Miners ETF’s GDX and GDXJ topped $800 million on 4/26, the largest single day outflows in history. 

Below looks at Gold Miners ETF GDX, reflecting where these large outflows took place.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The long-term trend since the highs in 2011 is down (lower highs and lower lows). The 15-month trend appears to be higher, as GDX has created a series of higher lows, since early 2016.

Joe Friday Just The Facts; GDX is testing 1-year rising support at (1), which could be support of a bullish ascending triangle pattern. Two thirds of the time, this pattern suggest higher prices.

It is way too early to tell if investors panicked on Wednesday (huge outflows). From a Power of the Pattern perspective, what takes place at (1), is very important for the miners space, more important than outflows.

If you are a fan of the Gold, Silver and Mining space, we would be honored if you were a Premium or Metals Member.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Greece Brain Drain: 33% Of Unemployed Looking For Jobs Abroad Vs 11% In 2015

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The  Unemployment Rate in Greece is down to 21.7% in April from a record 27.9% in July of 2013 and a record low of 7.3% in May of 2008.

Despite th...



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Phil's Favorites

It's All Happening

How long will this go on? Actually, go ahead and make your prediction in the comments. 

It’s All Happening

Courtesy of

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” -Vladimir Lenin

U.S. stocks made zero progress in the seventeen months from October 2014 to January 2016. And in the seventeen months since the February lows, here’s how the following indexes have performed.

S&P 500 +36%

NASDAQ 100 +52%

Russell 2000 +52%

What’s happened in the last seventeen ...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For July 20, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • PPG Industries, Inc. (NYSE: PPG) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $1.85 per share on revenue of $3.97 billion.
  • Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $1.23 per share on revenue of $7.09 billion.
  • Union Pacific Corporatio...


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ValueWalk

UBS MD Supports New TCFD Proposal Supports Deforestation Risk Mitigation

By Gabriel Thoumi, CFA, FRM. Originally published at ValueWalk.

As written by Chain Reaction Research, on June 29, the Financial Stability Board Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) published their final report including key recommendations for the Agriculture, Food and Forest Products sector. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) monitors and makes recommendations about the global financial system with FSB members including all G20 economies, the Euro...



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Chart School

Small Caps Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

It has taken a few days for Small Caps to make their move but today was the day the Russell 2000 joined other indices in mounting a breakout. It was a clean breakout supported by positive technical strength - putting to bed the June 'bull trap'. Watch for the second round of stop-whips with an intraday move (and recovery) below 1,430.


Other indices added to their breakouts. The S&P gapped and pushed on, backed by higher volume accumulation. Watch for a tag of upper channel resistance.

...

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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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Digital Currencies

I bought my first Bitcoin

 

I bought my first Bitcoin

Courtesy of 

So you are now free to dump all of your crypto-currencies because this surely marks an all-time top.

But I thought I’d mention it anyway.

For those who are curious about why and how, I’ll just say the following…

I’m old enough to realize that just because I don’t see a use for something, that doesn’t mean I won’t be proven wrong by others who do. At the current moment, I don’t see the financial industry use for Bitcoin other than some marginal activities like settling commodity trades that are very far divorced from my day to day existence. I understand the bene...



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OpTrader

swing trading portfolio - week of July 17th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Immunotherapy: Training the body to fight cancer

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Immunotherapy: Training the body to fight cancer

Courtesy of Balveen KaurThe Ohio State University and Pravin KaumayaThe Ohio State University

An oral squamous cancer cell (white) being attacked by two T cells (red), part of a natural immune response. ...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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