Author Archive for kimblechartingsolutions

Fear Index tanking, after hitting this resistance!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the VIX (Fear Level) over the past few years. A rally had taken place in the VIX, driving it up to falling resistance and its 50% retracement level at (1), in the chart below.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

We shared the chart above last week on Twitter last week (See Here)  One of the reasons Premium and Sector members bought XIV, was due to this pattern and a seasonal pattern in stocks (strong the last two weeks of April). The VIX index is down nearly 40% in the past week, following hitting resistance at (1). Members this morning are pulling up stops to protect gains.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Banks at risk if this support gives ways, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Regional and Large banks have done well since the election. Of late they have lagged the broad market and find themselves testing what could be very important support levels. Below looks at regional bank ETF (KRE).

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

KRE has experienced a rally that started in February of 2016. This rally picked up speed following the election last November, as KRE almost went vertical. The move up was strong enough to push KRE above 2007 highs, for a couple of months. Breaking above 2007 highs was bullish price action. Since hitting highs near the end of February this year, KRE has declined around 15%, following a bearish reversal pattern (bearish wick) the last week of the month. This decline now has KRE testing 2007 highs for the first time in history, as support at (1) above. 

Below looks at Bank ETF XLF on a “Monthly Basis” since its inception back in 1999-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

XLF hit resistance line (1) at the end of February at (2) and has backed off along with regional banks. Below looks at XLF on a daily basis, which could be forming an important pattern of late.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Joe Friday Just The Facts; With the weak seasonal time period just in front of us (Sell In May and Go Away), it is critical that regional banks (KRE) finds 2007 highs as support and that horizontal support in XLF above at (1) holds!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Europe breaking support, spill over into the states?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

How stocks do in Europe, can have an important impact on stocks in the states. Today we look at the patterns in London and Germany, as recent price action could “spill over” into stocks in the states.

FTSE 100 Index below-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

FTSE 100 hit resistance line (2) of late and it quickly turned south, breaking rising support this week at (3). One weeks weakness does not make a trend, could become important if it continues!

Below looks at the DAX Index (Germany)-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Let me be clear about this, London and Germany remain in rising trends (higher lows) since the lows in 2009. A little weakness at resistance the past couple of weeks has NOT broken this trend.

The Power of the Pattern does feel it is very important what these two indices do in the next few weeks, as short-term support is attempting to give way. If weakness continues in these important markets, would be surprised if it doesn’t spill over into stocks in the states.

Bulls want to see the FTSE break above resistance line (2) in the top chart and the same for the DAX at (1).

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





S&P 500 Looking Mighty “Nifty” At Key Price Resistance

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

“Buy these 50 stocks and that’s all you need” to get rich. That was the early 1970’s as the stock market bounced back from a deep correction to make new highs (point 1 on the chart below).

Those 50 stocks were dubbed the “Nifty 50“ and investing in them felt like a fool-proof plan at the time. Well, today’s stock market is beginning to feel a bit like that. And, in the case of the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX), price is facing a similar line of resistance (point 2). In both instances, long-term channel resistance is being tested (see the chart below).

It was 50 stocks back then, just add a “0” today and make it the nifty 500? S&P 500 Long-Term “Weekly” Chart

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

A clear decisive price move above resistance would be very bullish. But it’s worth noting that several key stock market indices are facing similar long-term resistance… and each has shown weakness at first blush. Worth keeping an eye on in my humble opinion!

This article was written for See It Markets, to see rest of the article and key indices are resistance CLICK HERE

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Leading indicator double topping going into May?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Many times over the years, what the stock markets do in Germany and Europe, impacts stocks in the states. Several times Germany has been a leading indicator in bull and bear moves, ahead of what take place in the S&P 500. Below looks that the DAX index over the past decade and the important pattern that could be in play.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

DAX hit the top of 6-year rising channel (A) back in 2015, then proceeded to decline to the bottom rising channel (A) 14-months ago. The rally off the 2016 lows, now has the DAX testing 2015 highs at (1), which comes into play as resistance.

A bearish rising wedge look to have formed over the past year, as support is now being tested at (2). If support would five way, it would increase the potential the DAX has created a double top.

Bull in the states want/need to see the DAX breakout at (1). The bullish case for stocks in the states should start to get a little concerned if support breaks at (2), going into the “Sell In May” time frame.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Silver; Jumping over bull flag resistance?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Silver is off to a great start in 2017, gaining nearly 16%. Could the gains become even larger? Yes if it can hurdle a key line in the sand discussed below.

Below looks at Silver ETF (SLV) and how it could be breaking above a “bullish flag” pattern.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

In 2011, Silver hit $50 an ounce and its been pretty much downhill ever since. Over the past 15-months, SLV is attempting to create a series of higher lows, inside of the green rising channel.

Inside of this rising channel, SLV has created a 9-month falling channel, which could be viewed as a bullish flag pattern. SLV broke above this bull flag recently and came back to test old resistance as new support at (1).

The next big resistance test for SLV comes into play around the $17.65 zone. If SLV can take out resistance at (2), it should attract buying pressure, from this long-term out of favor asset.

Full Disclosure- Premium and Metals members have been long in the metals space since 12/27/16.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Reflationary theme about to pop & deflate rapidly?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Since the election, it has been popular to talk about global reflation taking place. Many look at the price of stocks, Copper and Steel and feel the rise in prices, means global growth and reflation is taking place.

Below looks at the price of US Steel over the past few years and the message it could be sending to the reflation theme of late-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

US Steel (X)  retraced 50% of its 2010/2016 decline and hit falling resistance line (1) at (2). At the same time it was hitting dual resistance at (2), it was at the apex of a bearish rising wedge pattern.

After hitting this resistance, it has backed off over 10%, breaking support of the bearish rising wedge.

The reflation theme has been popular around the world. For the them to continue, it does NOT want to see weakness at (2)~

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





S&P 500; Bearish wicks form as it backs off!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the S&P 500 over the past couple of years on a weekly closing basis. The S&P hit a key level around 6-weeks ago and continues to “back off!”

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The Power of the Pattern applied Fibonacci to the 2016 “weekly closing highs and lows” at each (1), then applied the 161% extension level to them.

SPY hit the 161% extension level around 6 weeks ago, at the 238 level and has proceeded to create a series of lower highs, while breaking a steep rising support line at (2). This line was created off the lows at the time of the election.

Since hitting this key resistance level, the S&P 500 has created a series of “bearish reversal patterns/bearish wicks,” three out of the past 6-weeks! See post discussing bearish wicks HERE

Until the S&P can take out the 161% level, it comes into play as the 800 pound resistance zone.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Crude Oil; Two Thirds odds of breakout, target $70

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Crude Oil has created a series of lower highs and lower lows since the peak in 2008. Since the lows of 14-months ago, Crude has created a series of higher lows and potentially creating a bullish ascending triangle pattern. This pattern two-thirds of the time, leads to an upside breakout. Below looks at a chart Crude Oil, with a focus on the potential ascending triangle pattern.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

For the read to be correct, (Bullish Ascending Triangle), resistance at the $55 level has to be taken out. At this time the $55 level comes into play as stiff resistance.

This ascending triangle pattern allows one to do a measured move calculation. The height of the ascending triangle is measured at (1). If a neckline breakout takes place, the measured move suggests that Crude could rally to the $70 zone at (2).

A breakout has NOT been proven at this time. The key to this pattern; Resistance must be taken out! If it does breakout, Crude could well attract buyers.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Gold Bugs breakout, very bullish says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Since the first day after Christmas last year (12/27/16), the metals space has been a great place to be. Below looks at performance of several metals assets compared to the S&P 500 since this date.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Premium and Metals members went long this sector by purchasing GDXJ on 12/27/16, due to an upside breakout. Even though the S&P is getting a ton of press about doing well and near all-time highs, its performance since 12/27/16 (Up 3.8%), is lagging the metals space by a large percentage!

Below looks at the Gold Bugs/S&P 500 Ratio-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Joe Friday Just The Facts; A upside breakout above pennant pattern resistance at (3), would suggest continued out performance by Gold Miners is in play and should attract buying pressure to mining companies.

Full disclosure; Premium and Metals members own miners at this time.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





 
 
 

ValueWalk

Pershing: Despite Recent Vol shares of Fannie & Freddie "will be worth a multiple of their current price"

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Pershing Square latest presentation slides

Also see 2017 letters

Ackman ’16 Letter On Fannie: “Various Scenarios” of “a … – V

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
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?Founded by Chairman and CEO Steve Ells in 1993
?High quality, simple, predictable, unlevered, free-cash-flow-generative business
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Zero Hedge

France Is 'Fixed'? - Credit Risk Collapses Most In History

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

French credit risk has collapsed by almost 40% this morning - the most ever - as it appears investors are satisifed that 1) Macron will win the presidency, and 2) Centrist banker/Hollande-lackey Macron will solve all of France's problems.

Notably, European VIX has plunged (back to historical norms absolutely and relative to US VIX)

...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Fear Index tanking, after hitting this resistance!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the VIX (Fear Level) over the past few years. A rally had taken place in the VIX, driving it up to falling resistance and its 50% retracement level at (1), in the chart below.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

We shared the chart above last week on Twitter last week (S...



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Digital Currencies

BDC's Crypto Corner

Hello fellow PSW-ers, it's biodieselchris here. I've been an interested in cryptocurrencies (informally, "cryptos" or "coins") since 2011 when I first heard about Bitcoin, Since that time I've become somewhat of a subject matter expert and personal investor in Bitcoin and other alternative cryptocurrencies ("altcoins"). I have even started one of my own!

I've been posting comments about cryptos in Phil's daily post from time to time. Recently, Phil and I got on a call and he asked if I would like to run a blog on his site specifically about cryptos, which I thought was a great idea. My goal would be to educate members on what I know about how coins work, how I research coins (what I find interesting), how exactly one can invest (buy, hold, and sell) coins and a basic, easy-to-follow general how-to on all things crypto. In addition, other members have expressed an interest in learning more directly i...



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Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Now's a great time to be a stock picker (Business Insider)

Companies in the S&P 500 are moving independently of one another to an extent rarely seen, and that's good news for stock pickers.

The World’s Advanced Economies Should Think Twice About Curbing Migration (Bloomberg)

Analysis of United Nations data by Fitch Ratings shows halting immigration would drastically reduce the potential working population of Group-of-Seven nations, leaving aging societies more dependent on a smaller labor force and resulting in greater f...



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Chart School

The Tax Cuts are Coming! It's the Stock Trader Weekly Recap.

Courtesy of Blain.

Forgetting the traditional market news, as we began last week both the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were at critical support.  A rally Monday showed those support levels held, giving bulls breathing room.  We’ll discuss this more below after we get through the more fundamental news items that transpired.   Traders seemed to breath easier on Monday seeing no escalation with North Korea and came in ready for a bit of a relief rally.

The lack of a nuclear test from North Korea over the weekend did much to reverse defensive positions adopted by traders heading into the weekend, said Ian Winer, director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities.

It was a very heavy week of S&P 500 type earnings with banks leading the way in the first half of the week. Then a series of large sized companies ac...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Wall Street gears up for busiest earnings week in years (Reuters)

Corporate America is set to unleash its biggest profit-reporting fest in at least a decade next week, with more than 190 members of the S&P 500 index .SPX delivering quarterly scorecards, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices data.

Draghi Says ECB Hasn’t Seen Evidence of Durable Eurozone Infl...



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Members' Corner

Should I buy that stock?

Courtesy of Phil Stasukaitis (pstas)

I was asked by my local investment club to do a presentation on "how to buy a stock?" As I pondered the question, I began by noting all the elements that I monitor regularly and which come in to play as part of my decision process. As the group is comprised novices to experts, I tried to gear my discussion to cover both basics and more advanced concepts.

Four Part Discussion

  1. Macro Economic Indicators
  2. Market Indexes
  3. Fundamental Analysis
  4. Technical Analysis

1. Macro Economic Indicators

We'll start with reviewing some basic concepts and measurements that have direct effects on the stock market. 

A. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

...

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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Biotech

CAR-T & CRISPR - the Future is Now

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members....it has been a while since my last post, but since many have all been on the board following the chat, it is time for a scientific lesson in a few of the companies we are long.  In addition, another revolution is coming in the medical field, and it will be touched upon as well.

CAR-T - stands for Chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and the T is for T-cell.  

From the picture above, T-cells are one cell type of our immune system that fight off infection as well as they are one player at keeping rogue cells from becoming cancerous. Unfortunately, cancer somehow evades the immune system and so it begins.

CAR-T came along in the late1980s via a brilliant scientist, Zelig Eshhar...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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