Author Archive for kimblechartingsolutions

Will it be different this time for stocks and bonds?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

My mentor Sir John Templeton (founder of the Templeton Funds) used to share that the four most dangerous words in investing are; “It’s Different This Time!” 

Below looks at long term charts on the S&P 500 and the yield on the 10-year note (inverted to look like bond prices).

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The S&P 500 remains inside of a rising channel for the past 15-years. The yield on the 10-year note remains inside of a 15-year rising channel as well. One thing that is for sure different this time, stocks are at the top of the channel and inverted bond yields the polar opposite.

A couple of things are different between the two from a sentiment perspective at this time.  As the S&P is testing the top of this long-term rising channel at (1), consumer confidence has just surpassed the highs reached at the 2007 peak. On the flip side, as bonds are testing rising support at (2), bullish sentiment on the 10-year note according to Sentimentrader.com, stands at “0% bulls.”

Will it be different this time, in that stocks can break above its long-term rising channel, with consumer very confident?

Will it be different this time, in that bonds will breakdown from this long-term rising channel with 0% bulls?

Will it be different this time? From a global growth story, it would be cool to see stocks breakout due to growth and yields break support, due to the same thoughts.

Always is fascinating to see and discuss, if it will be different this time!!!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Benzinga Interview discussing wonderful looking inflection points

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Today I was honored and humbled to do an audio interview with the great people at Benzinga this morning.  The short interview can he heard HERE

I discussed the the three charts below during our discussing. Our Full Interview can be heard HERE   My interview starts at the 34:45 mark and runs for about 10 minutes. 

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Thanks again to Benzinga for having me on the show. Our interview can be found HERE

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





King Dollar potentially topping out here!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The US Dollar has been moving higher for nearly a decade, as the trend is up. Could the trend be changing? Could King Dollar loose strength here? If King Dollar would turn lower, what opportunities will present themselves?

Below looks at a chart of the US Dollar over the past 30-years, on a “Monthly Hi/Lo/Closing” basis-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The US Dollar finds itself in an uptrend and testing the underside of dual resistance at (1). With the trend being up, if King Dollar would breakout at (1), the patterns would suggest that it could run to the upside a good deal. .

Seeing the US$ testing the underside of “Two” long term channels at the same time, creates the potential that the US$ could peak at these levels. Potentially this could become an 800 pound resistance gorilla for the Dollar.

If support would happen to be taken out at (2), it would suggest US$ weakness/Euro strength. What assets could do well if King$ is peaking out?

One sector that could do really well is mining stocks, due to the chart below, that was shared a week ago.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The chart above was shared a week ago, reflecting the potential that Miners could outperform the S&P 500 for years to come. 

As mentioned in the top chart, for the US$ to have a chance to see meaningful selling pressure, support line (2) first needs to be taken out.

Full Disclosure- Premium and Metals Members due to the patterns above, are long Junior Miners (GDXJ), as this ETF was purchased the first day after the Christmas break.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Regional banks; Breakout test in play, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Over the past 60-days, financial stocks have done well. Over the past 60-days, regional banks have been stellar performers, out producing larger banks and the broad market, by a large percentage. From a risk on stock perspective, seeing large and regional banks do well, has historically been a positive sign.

Below looks at regional bank ETF (KRE)_

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

KRE remains inside of bullish rising channel (1) for the past few years. As mentioned above, once KRE broke out at (2), buyers rushed in.

Joe Friday Just The Facts; KRE is facing a key breakout test at (3) above, that its outcome will be important to regional banks and could be important to larger banks as well.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Gold could blast off if King Dollar turns weak here!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The past 6-years have not been fun for buy & hold investors in the Gold, Silver and Miners space! Could that trend be about to change? The Power of the Pattern would say, a price point is in play, where a trend reversal could start to take place.

Below looks at the US Dollar/Gold ratio over the past 30-years-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

From 2001 to 2011, the ratio fell, reflecting that Gold stronger than the US$. From 2011 the ratio has risen sharply, reflecting that the US$ has been much stronger than Gold at (1).

The ratio remains in a long-term down trend and a 6-year rising trend. A potential “resistance cluster” is in play at (2) above.

If the resistance would hold at (2) and the ratio would turn lower, Gold, Silver and Miners would benefit. The Power of the Pattern would share that this is one of the most important potential inflection points for Gold/US$ in years and years.

Full Disclosure- Premium and Metals Members have been long Junior Miners (GDXJ) for the past couple of weeks. We shared a week ago that mining stocks could be poised to out perform that S&P 500 for years to come. 

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Interest rates peaking and bond prices bottoming?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

If one has been long bonds since July of 2015, its been a long and hard 6-months, as bond prices have fallen hard/yields shot up. Could rates be peaking and bond prices at lows? For sure the short-term trend in bonds is down and yields up. Is the longer-term trend about to change???

Below looks at our rate 6-pack, which looks at price and yields.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The top row reflects that yields and inverse bond ETF TBF, are all testing falling resistance in a downtrend, with momentum lofty. The bottom row reflects that bond prices are testing support of rising channels, with momentum deeply oversold.

Sentimentrader.com reports that bond bulls on the 10-year yield are hard to find, as the bullish percentage now stands at 0%!

Below looks at the Stock/Bond and Bond/Stock ratios, which compares the S&P to TLT, since TLT’s inception.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

With yields testing falling resistance and bond prices testing rising support, the above ratio could become important when it comes to portfolio construction!

Full Disclosure; Premium Members shorted bonds at the highs in July and have recently purchased a long bond ETF

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Key markets, facing critical breakout tests, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below look at 4 key indices in the states at the first week of this new year.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Each of these key indices are in long-term up trends.

Joe Friday, Just The Facts; Each index finds itself up against breakout tests, of long-term rising channel. To keep the trends going, critical that these breakout at these price points.

Risk On trade in stocks, would NOT want to see weakness start taking place here!!!

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Gold Bugs; poised to outperform S&P for years to come?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Mining stocks have spent long periods of time out performing as well as under performing the S&P 500 over the past 20-years. From 2000 to 2011, the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) gained nearly 1,400% more than the S&P 500!

From 2011 through 2016, the S&P 500 out performed the Gold Bugs Index by nearly 150%. Below looks at the S&P 500/Gold Bugs ratio over the past 20-years.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Let me make one thing clear at this time; the ratio has been moving up since the 2011 lows, which means that the S&P 500 has been stronger than Gold Bugs over the past 6-years.

Is it possible that the trend could be poised to reverse? Possible

The S&P/Gold Bugs ratio over the past couple of years, could be forming a reversal pattern (Head & Shoulders Topping Pattern), with the right shoulder potentially completed of late at (1).

The pattern is far from proven at this time. If the read would happen to be correct, it would suggest that the Gold Bugs index is poised to out perform the S&P 500 for a good period of time going forward. If the Power of the Pattern is accurate about this observation, it would mean owning mining stocks should be rewarding to your bottom line.

Full Disclosure- Premium and Metals members bought GDXJ (Junior Miners) during the Christmas holiday.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Gold Miners- Breakout here, very bullish for them!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The above picture comes from the movie Junior, which was released back in 1994. The film follows Alex Hesse (Arnold Schwarzenegger), an Austrian-American scientist who agrees to undergo a male pregnancy as part of a scientific experiment The picture reminded me of what “Junior Mining Stocks” are attempting to do at this time, which is breakout!

Below looks at Junior Miners ETF GDXJ 

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

As mentioned above, after hitting highs this past summer, sellers stepped in and drove GDXJ down hard, as it lost nearly a third of its value, in a few months time.

Premium and Metals Members bought GDXJ at (1), where a support cluster seemed to be in play, after this large decline. So far, GDXJ has screamed higher, gaining nearly 13% since the purchase at (1).

Now GDXJ is testing falling resistance at (2). What GDXJ does at (2), should tell us a good deal about the next intermediate move in mining stocks. Due to this falling channel in play at (2), members are pulling up stops, to protect gains.

If the metals complex and opportunities they present are of interest to you, we would be honored if you would become a member of one of our services, that covers this sector in depth.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Crude Oil- Heading towards $75?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Could higher Crude prices, create a positive ripple effect on stocks globally? Possible! Has higher Crude price “always” correlated with higher stock prices? Nope!

Below looks at the price pattern of Crude Oil over the past 30-years.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Crude Oil has spent around 90% of the past 30-years, inside of rising channel (1). The bottom of this channel was hit 11-months ago, where support held and a strong rally followed.

Crude over the past six months, looks to have created a bullish ascending triangle and is attempting a “dual breakout” of channel and ascending triangle resistance at (3).

A couple of weeks ago the Power of the Pattern shared that the measured move in Crude Oil suggested it could reach at least $75 (Rally 50% from current levels), due to measured move calculations.

Strength at (3), would be a good sign for Crude Oil and energy stocks. Full Disclosure-Premium Members are long the energy sector.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

"Deploraball" Protests Turn Bloody As Trump Supporter Assaulted With Flagpole

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Reports have been rolling in all evening of vicious mobs of violent protesters around Washington DC attacking Donald Trump supporters in town for the inauguration, including people on their way to and from tonight's pre-Inauguration "Deploraball" celebration, held at the National Press Club building. Over 1000 guests were invited to the event organized by Mike @Cernovich and the pro-Trump MAGA3X organization.

As Fox News ...



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Financial Markets and Economy

Saudi Arabia could see more instability if oil doesn't get back up to $60 (Business Insider)

With the OPEC production deal holding, at least for the moment, questions have now arisen over how prospects look for the cartel’s biggest producer. It’s been a strange few years for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as its endured budget deficits for the first time in its modern history, stagnation in oil prices and rising competition from other OPEC members and the American shale boom.

Euro zone yields spike as Yellen comments add to pressure on ECB (Reuters)

Euro zone bond yields rose sharply on T...



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Financial Markets and Economy

Saudi Arabia could see more instability if oil doesn't get back up to $60 (Business Insider)

With the OPEC production deal holding, at least for the moment, questions have now arisen over how prospects look for the cartel’s biggest producer. It’s been a strange few years for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as its endured budget deficits for the first time in its modern history, stagnation in oil prices and rising competition from other OPEC members and the American shale boom.

Euro zone yields spike as Yellen comments add to pressure on ECB (Reuters)

Euro zone bond yields rose sharply on T...



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ValueWalk

Nuggets of Wisdom: Warren Buffett on Investing, Leverage and Market Bubbles

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

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Chart via Larry Cunningham

The post Nuggets of Wisdom: Warren Buffett on Investing, Leverage and Market Bubbles appeared first on ValueWalk.

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Chart School

Small Cap Losses Accelerate

Courtesy of Declan.

Small Caps again took the brunt of the selling as Shorts took advantage of yesterday's small rally back to former support (turned resistance) to enter positions. With the 'bull trap' in full effect, the next target down for the index is 1,308. Of supporting technicals, only Stochastics [39,1] is left to break its bullish alignment,


The S&P took a modest loss, but not enough to break it out of its consolidation. Volume was also lighter. With the Russell 2000 on the way down, it's suggesting the S&P will follow suit....

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will it be different this time for stocks and bonds?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

My mentor Sir John Templeton (founder of the Templeton Funds) used to share that the four most dangerous words in investing are; “It’s Different This Time!” 

Below looks at long term charts on the S&P 500 and the yield on the 10-year note (inverted to look like bond prices).

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

...

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Members' Corner

NFL 2016 Playoffs Championship Sunday

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Following up on our Divisional Playoff projections, all match up stats in Yards Per Attempt, provided by Pro Football Reference.  All times Eastern.

From our Wildcard Weekend projections...
As they are both hotter than a squirrel putting suntan oil on his nuts, keep your eyes on these dark horses...In the NFC, watch the GB Sausage Packers, the potential of facing Mr. Rodgers and his O-line has the DAL Pokes (aka Jerry's Kids) defensive coordinator sweatin like a priest at a preschool.In the AFC, watch the Three Ri...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 16th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

China's Bitcoin Exchanges Suspend Margin Trading

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

China's bitcoin traders who use the most popular bitcoin exchange not only in China, but also the entire world, BTCChina, were met with an unexpected warning on Friday:

Starting from January 12th, 2017, BTCChina has suspended margin loan service. If you have any questions, please contact Customer Service: support@btcc.com.

BTCChina, which commands over 37% of global bitcoin trading...

... wasn't alone.

Fo...



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Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN and  WILL CONNORS

Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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