Author Archive for Market Montage

We’ve Seen this Game Before

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

As no budget resolution came to pass this weekend (surprise surprise) futures are solidly down in the U.S. and most world markets are following suit.   Even before this morning’s drop the S&P 500 had dropped about 2% straight in a slow steady drip since a week ago Wednesday when euphoria was at its highest post Fed announcement.  It has been a strange month – the S&P 500 was up 11 of 12 days in a row up, through that Wednesday and barring a big reversal later today will be down 7 of 8 sessions. Technically we have a bearish MACD crossover in the S&P 500 here.

Bigger picture, the S&P 500 has moved a lot since early July but with an open in the 1670s will have gone almost nowhere in the past 3 months

The NASDAQ has performed much better of late (as has the Russell 2000) so certainly an interesting divergence in the short term charts.

All in all, we’ve seen this game before – there will be a lot of herky jerky movements to this or that news break or politician comment.  Then at some day in the future the politicians will have kicked the can (and solved nothing) but the market will skyrocket as that uncertainty is now off the table.  Rinse ,wash, repeat.
Aside from those hijinks we have ISM reports Tuesday and Thursday and the employment data Friday.  If there is no government one wonders if there will be a jobs report.  Hmm…

But all eyes will focus on D.C. this week unfortunately.

 

 

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





Potential Bearish MACD Crosover on S&P 500

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

We have an interesting set of divergences in the major indexes – the S&P 500 is starting to pose some issues as it fell back below the early August highs and this morning is breaking below the 38.2% retrace level of the September rally that it held yesterday.  We also have what, if nothing changes later today, is a bearish MACD crossover.

Meanwhile the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are holding up much better – range bound the past week and a half.

The DJIA on the other hand is a big mess.

Usually you don’t such divergent conditions on the 4 indexes.

 

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





First 5 Day Loss of the Year

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Rare as a dodo in 2013 are any form of long losing streaks; recall how long we entire early part of the year without so much as 3 down days in the DJIA.  Yesterday’s reversal late in the day pushed stocks into the red again and we now have the first 5 day losing streak of the year.  After being extremely overbought last Wednesday after the Fed surprise announcement the indexes have now worked off that condition.  As you can see in the chart below the S&P has now retraced 38.2% of the September rally.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





WSJ’s Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath – more specific to policy and personality.  From the description, Yellen is far more like Greenspan than Bernanke.   Some excerpts:

  • Janet Yellen, the lead candidate to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, brings a demanding and harder-driving leadership style to the central bank, in contrast to Mr. Bernanke’s low-key and often understated approach. 
  • Ms. Yellen, the Fed vice chairwoman, is highly regarded by many central bank staff members, who call her an effective leader with a sharp mind. But she has clashed with others and left some hard feelings in the wake of those confrontations, according to interviews with more than a dozen current and former staff members and officials who worked with her directly in recent years.
  • Most agree that Ms. Yellen—who has climbed the ranks from Fed researcher to Fed governor and regional Fed bank president, in between stints outside the central bank—is exacting and exceptionally detail-oriented.  At Fed policy meetings, Ms. Yellen is courteous, respectful, serious and meticulously prepared, according to officials who have attended meetings with her. She has staked out strong positions in favor of the Fed’s easy-money policies that sometimes put her at odds with opponents of the policies, these people said.
  • People differ over Ms. Yellen’s style and its effectiveness. Many senior Fed officials, including those who have opposed her on tough policy questions, say the 67-year-old Brooklyn, N.Y., native would be easy to work with if picked to lead the institution. “She listens to all sides of a debate,” said Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, who wants the Fed to end its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program, which Ms. Yellen has strongly supported.
  • Some others who have worked with her behind the scenes disagree.  Dick Anderson, who served a brief stint as the chief operating officer of the Fed’s Washington board, ending in December 2012, said, “Yellen’s abrasive,


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Perhaps More than a Pause

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

This pullback is a bit more severe than probably most bulls would want.  The entire Fed sugar high from last Wednesday has now been erased.  At this rate the rally from a week ago when Larry Summers was pushed out the door for Fed chairman also might be retraced.  A lot of individual names have seen a lot more damage than you’d expect in a 3 day pullback.  Interesting to see.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





A Much Needed Pause

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

After the euphoria of late Wednesday when it became apparent that Ben Bernanke will not be taking back any QE during 2013, and likely through the end of his term, markets were as overbought on some measures as they had been the entire year.  The NYSE McClellan Oscillator was at levels seen only a handful of times the past 3 years.  The S&P 500 had been up every single day of the month except for one – so in a way it was a bit of a blow off short term top based on surprising news.  There was a small pullback Thursday and the largest pullback of the month Friday.  But within the context of the move preceding it this was not a shock to the system.

With the S&P 500 we essentially had a breakout over early August highs mid week, and then a retrace to them late in the week.  The MACD indicator is still in fine condition and some digestion here would be healthy.

Sector wise there was not that much rhyme or reason last week.  Some of the yield specific sectors rallied sharply Wednesday on the surprise move by the Fed, but then gave back much of those gains (if not all) the next 2 days.

Treasury yields on the 10 year, which had approached 3%, have fallen back in the 2.7%s which helps take some pressure off the housing market – which seems to be Ben’s top concern.

 

With German elections over the weekend more or less going as expected and the Fed out of the way, the main concern near term will be the debt ceiling issue.  Of course we have been trained now for the politicians to posture and make lots of comments but eventually cave in.  So it will be interesting how serious the market takes it this time around when we see this stuff on an annual basis.

Economic data this week is centered on housing and consumer confidence, not the type of things that usually are market shaking.   Next week we will return to the big econ data (ISMs, and employment) and earnings season will also begin

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned
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Worst Breadth for the Month

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Today is the worst breadth day of the month but considering there have only been 2 down days all month that was an easy hurdle.  Also recall at the close Wednesday, the S&P 500 was the most overbought it had been since the previous summer per the NYSE McClellan indicator.  These past 2 days have helped work that condition off.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





Bullard Says Tapering Still on Table for 2013 … Blah Blah

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

St Louis Fed head James Bullard is out on the wires saying there could still be tapering in 2013.

  • St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the central bank could taper its $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program during its October meeting.  “This was a close decision here in September,” Bullard said in an interview with Bloomberg, emphasizing the role that economic data has played and will continue to play in Fed decisions

This reminds me after the May comments by Bernanke that tapering might be on the horizon, a bevy of Fed speakers came out in the following week to counterbalance that by saying it is very conditional on economic data and nothing is guaranteed.  Now we have the exact opposite… Bernanke surprised everyone by doing nothing so now they send out minions to say “but we just might do in the future…any moment now!”  Yada yada yada.  One thing Bernanke really had been good with was utilizing the bully pulpit and he could use his gift of gab in lieu of action at times… but now it is difficult to take what he says with credibility.  If they did not do it this meeting it is (a) difficult to see them doing it in a meeting without a news conference immediately after to react to the insufferable whining from the stock market community and (b) since the next meeting with a news conference is not until the holidays, do you think Ben is going to ruin Christmas like that?  Sure seems to not be his style.  I thought he would start to taper mostly because he wanted to set the precedent before he left office but even that doesn’t seem to matter so it seems status quo until 2014.

Two more Fed speakers later today including the only hawk.  But all this is noise now.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday’s gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with “no taper at all”, lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the relentless bid with no rest this month.  Per at least one indicator this is the most overbought moment of 2013 – and it is not even close.  The NYSE McClellan Oscillator rarely exceeds 60 and yesterday was approaching 90 at the close.  This rare 80+ type of reading only happened twice in 2012 and four times in 2011.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





No Taper

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Party on Garth.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





 
 
 

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Crash and burn: How fast cars and hedge funds go together

 

Crash and burn: How fast cars and hedge funds go together

Courtesy of Monash Business School, in EconomyImpact 

Can your choice of car influence your appetite for investment risk? If you are a hedge fund manager, it seems it can.

?Hedge fund managers who drive Ferraris or other sports cars are likely to take greater investment risks than those who drive the humble minivan, new research from Monash Business School shows.

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China GDP Beats, Retail Sales Slump (Amid Renewed Fake Data Fears)

 

China GDP Beats, Retail Sales Slump (Amid Renewed Fake Data Fears)

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China bond yields rose ahead of the macro data avalanche tonight (following a leaked upside surprise print for GDP). GDP, Industrial Production, and Fixed Asset Investment all beat expectations but Retail Sales missed dramatically - growing at its slowest since Feb 2004.

As a reminder, these numbers are landing amid some renewed concern over the integrity of Chinese data, with a nationwide audit of city and county governments last year finding a slew inflated fiscal revenues.

 

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]]> Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF

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Weekly Market Recap Jan 14, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

After 3 days of mild “rest” – and the first down day of the year (!!) for the S&P 500, bulls came back with bells on Thursday and Friday, driving indexes to record highs yet again.  This is starting to get “parabolic”… some shades of the type of things we saw in 1999.  (See the S&P 500 and NASDAQ charts below)  The S&P 500 gained 1.6% and the NASDAQ 1.7% for the week.

“This reminds me of January 2000,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist, at Capitol Securities Management, which manages $4 billion in assets, referring to the nearly unceasing climb to records for stocks and the unease it can inspire.  “It’s scary, the unrelenting advance,” he added.

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Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

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This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

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Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

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Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

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Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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