Author Archive for Market Montage

We’ve Seen this Game Before

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

As no budget resolution came to pass this weekend (surprise surprise) futures are solidly down in the U.S. and most world markets are following suit.   Even before this morning’s drop the S&P 500 had dropped about 2% straight in a slow steady drip since a week ago Wednesday when euphoria was at its highest post Fed announcement.  It has been a strange month – the S&P 500 was up 11 of 12 days in a row up, through that Wednesday and barring a big reversal later today will be down 7 of 8 sessions. Technically we have a bearish MACD crossover in the S&P 500 here.

Bigger picture, the S&P 500 has moved a lot since early July but with an open in the 1670s will have gone almost nowhere in the past 3 months

The NASDAQ has performed much better of late (as has the Russell 2000) so certainly an interesting divergence in the short term charts.

All in all, we’ve seen this game before – there will be a lot of herky jerky movements to this or that news break or politician comment.  Then at some day in the future the politicians will have kicked the can (and solved nothing) but the market will skyrocket as that uncertainty is now off the table.  Rinse ,wash, repeat.
Aside from those hijinks we have ISM reports Tuesday and Thursday and the employment data Friday.  If there is no government one wonders if there will be a jobs report.  Hmm…

But all eyes will focus on D.C. this week unfortunately.

 

 

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





Potential Bearish MACD Crosover on S&P 500

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

We have an interesting set of divergences in the major indexes – the S&P 500 is starting to pose some issues as it fell back below the early August highs and this morning is breaking below the 38.2% retrace level of the September rally that it held yesterday.  We also have what, if nothing changes later today, is a bearish MACD crossover.

Meanwhile the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are holding up much better – range bound the past week and a half.

The DJIA on the other hand is a big mess.

Usually you don’t such divergent conditions on the 4 indexes.

 

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





First 5 Day Loss of the Year

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Rare as a dodo in 2013 are any form of long losing streaks; recall how long we entire early part of the year without so much as 3 down days in the DJIA.  Yesterday’s reversal late in the day pushed stocks into the red again and we now have the first 5 day losing streak of the year.  After being extremely overbought last Wednesday after the Fed surprise announcement the indexes have now worked off that condition.  As you can see in the chart below the S&P has now retraced 38.2% of the September rally.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





WSJ’s Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath – more specific to policy and personality.  From the description, Yellen is far more like Greenspan than Bernanke.   Some excerpts:

  • Janet Yellen, the lead candidate to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, brings a demanding and harder-driving leadership style to the central bank, in contrast to Mr. Bernanke’s low-key and often understated approach. 
  • Ms. Yellen, the Fed vice chairwoman, is highly regarded by many central bank staff members, who call her an effective leader with a sharp mind. But she has clashed with others and left some hard feelings in the wake of those confrontations, according to interviews with more than a dozen current and former staff members and officials who worked with her directly in recent years.
  • Most agree that Ms. Yellen—who has climbed the ranks from Fed researcher to Fed governor and regional Fed bank president, in between stints outside the central bank—is exacting and exceptionally detail-oriented.  At Fed policy meetings, Ms. Yellen is courteous, respectful, serious and meticulously prepared, according to officials who have attended meetings with her. She has staked out strong positions in favor of the Fed’s easy-money policies that sometimes put her at odds with opponents of the policies, these people said.
  • People differ over Ms. Yellen’s style and its effectiveness. Many senior Fed officials, including those who have opposed her on tough policy questions, say the 67-year-old Brooklyn, N.Y., native would be easy to work with if picked to lead the institution. “She listens to all sides of a debate,” said Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, who wants the Fed to end its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program, which Ms. Yellen has strongly supported.
  • Some others who have worked with her behind the scenes disagree.  Dick Anderson, who served a brief stint as the chief operating officer of the Fed’s Washington board, ending in December 2012, said, “Yellen’s abrasive,


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Perhaps More than a Pause

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

This pullback is a bit more severe than probably most bulls would want.  The entire Fed sugar high from last Wednesday has now been erased.  At this rate the rally from a week ago when Larry Summers was pushed out the door for Fed chairman also might be retraced.  A lot of individual names have seen a lot more damage than you’d expect in a 3 day pullback.  Interesting to see.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





A Much Needed Pause

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

After the euphoria of late Wednesday when it became apparent that Ben Bernanke will not be taking back any QE during 2013, and likely through the end of his term, markets were as overbought on some measures as they had been the entire year.  The NYSE McClellan Oscillator was at levels seen only a handful of times the past 3 years.  The S&P 500 had been up every single day of the month except for one – so in a way it was a bit of a blow off short term top based on surprising news.  There was a small pullback Thursday and the largest pullback of the month Friday.  But within the context of the move preceding it this was not a shock to the system.

With the S&P 500 we essentially had a breakout over early August highs mid week, and then a retrace to them late in the week.  The MACD indicator is still in fine condition and some digestion here would be healthy.

Sector wise there was not that much rhyme or reason last week.  Some of the yield specific sectors rallied sharply Wednesday on the surprise move by the Fed, but then gave back much of those gains (if not all) the next 2 days.

Treasury yields on the 10 year, which had approached 3%, have fallen back in the 2.7%s which helps take some pressure off the housing market – which seems to be Ben’s top concern.

 

With German elections over the weekend more or less going as expected and the Fed out of the way, the main concern near term will be the debt ceiling issue.  Of course we have been trained now for the politicians to posture and make lots of comments but eventually cave in.  So it will be interesting how serious the market takes it this time around when we see this stuff on an annual basis.

Economic data this week is centered on housing and consumer confidence, not the type of things that usually are market shaking.   Next week we will return to the big econ data (ISMs, and employment) and earnings season will also begin

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned
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Worst Breadth for the Month

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Today is the worst breadth day of the month but considering there have only been 2 down days all month that was an easy hurdle.  Also recall at the close Wednesday, the S&P 500 was the most overbought it had been since the previous summer per the NYSE McClellan indicator.  These past 2 days have helped work that condition off.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





Bullard Says Tapering Still on Table for 2013 … Blah Blah

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

St Louis Fed head James Bullard is out on the wires saying there could still be tapering in 2013.

  • St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the central bank could taper its $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program during its October meeting.  “This was a close decision here in September,” Bullard said in an interview with Bloomberg, emphasizing the role that economic data has played and will continue to play in Fed decisions

This reminds me after the May comments by Bernanke that tapering might be on the horizon, a bevy of Fed speakers came out in the following week to counterbalance that by saying it is very conditional on economic data and nothing is guaranteed.  Now we have the exact opposite… Bernanke surprised everyone by doing nothing so now they send out minions to say “but we just might do in the future…any moment now!”  Yada yada yada.  One thing Bernanke really had been good with was utilizing the bully pulpit and he could use his gift of gab in lieu of action at times… but now it is difficult to take what he says with credibility.  If they did not do it this meeting it is (a) difficult to see them doing it in a meeting without a news conference immediately after to react to the insufferable whining from the stock market community and (b) since the next meeting with a news conference is not until the holidays, do you think Ben is going to ruin Christmas like that?  Sure seems to not be his style.  I thought he would start to taper mostly because he wanted to set the precedent before he left office but even that doesn’t seem to matter so it seems status quo until 2014.

Two more Fed speakers later today including the only hawk.  But all this is noise now.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday’s gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with “no taper at all”, lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the relentless bid with no rest this month.  Per at least one indicator this is the most overbought moment of 2013 – and it is not even close.  The NYSE McClellan Oscillator rarely exceeds 60 and yesterday was approaching 90 at the close.  This rare 80+ type of reading only happened twice in 2012 and four times in 2011.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





No Taper

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Party on Garth.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/index.php/the-fund/holdings





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Peak Oil 'Demand' & The Duelling Narratives Of Energy Inventories

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Crude oil inventories in the U.S. have fallen 23.9 million barrels since the end of April, but, as Bloomberg notes, oil bulls counting on further declines are fighting history. Over the past five years refiners' crude demand has fallen an average of 1.2 million barrels a day from the peak in July to the low in October.

 "The rough part will be once refineries start going into maintenance," said Rob Haworth, a senior investment strategist in Seat...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Buying the Deepest Stock Dips in 2016 Returned Three Times S&P 500 (Bloomberg)

It’s been a great year for catching falling knives.

Big Week Ahead Highlighted By Fed Meeting, Key Earnings, GDP Estimate (Forbes)

The recipe for this coming week? A stew of earnings, peppered with data and a Fed meeting. Also ahead: A first look at estimated Q2 gross domestic product.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Denial of the Obvious, Praise for Lies

Courtesy of Mish.

At yet another useless G-20 meeting, Italy’s finance minister, Pier Carlo Padoan,  made an official denial regarding  the plight of Italian banks:

“There is no risk in terms of systemic stability,” said Padoan. Supposedly, everything is “contained“.

Praise for Lies and Useless Talk

The New York Times reports Group of 20 Will Use ‘All Policy Tools’ to Lift Growth.

Actually, the only policy tools central banks are likely to use are tools that have long-term negative consequences such as negative interest rates and competitive currency devaluations.

Also expect a bunch of useless yap about f...



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Chart School

World Markets Weekend Update: The Global Rally Moderates

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

The global rally in equities Moderated last week. The average gain of the eight indexes on our world watch list was a respectable 0.41%, down from the previous week's steroidal 3.87% average. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was the top performer with a 1.41% advance. At the other end, the chronic laggard Shanghai Composite fell 1.36%.

A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks

The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. We've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the compara...



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ValueWalk

Relypsa Inc (RLYP) Soars On Galenica Bid

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Relypsa Inc (NDAQ:RLYP) — to be acquired by Galenica AG (VTX:GALN) for $32 per share in cash is soaring this morning up about 58 percent at the time of this writing in early morning. On the other hand shares of Galenica are down on the announcement by about 8 percent. What are the details of the deal? Here is what the sell side analysts are saying about the pharma news.

Relypsa Inc (NDAQ:RLYP) bid – analysts react

Cantor Fitzgerald

Relypsa will be acquired by Galenica for $32 per share, a 59% premium over the last closing price. We have thought that Relypsa would likely be acquired at some point, given the opportunity to grow Veltassa to be a significant commercial brand, ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper going to peak again at 200 Day moving ave?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Doc Copper is often viewed as a leading indicator, for global growth or lack of.

The 200 day moving average is often viewed as the line in the sand to determine if an asset is in an up or down trend.

Is Doc Copper climbing above its 200 day moving average a good or bad sign?

Below looks at Doc Copper over the past decade with the 200 MA applied.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Copper peaked in 2011 and since, has continued to create a series of ...



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Digital Currencies

Demystifying the blockchain: a basic user guide

 

Demystifying the blockchain: a basic user guide

By Philippa Ryan, University of Technology Sydney

Companies around the world are exploring blockchain, the technology underpinning digital currency bitcoin. In this Blockchain unleashed series, we investigate the many possible use cases for the blockchain, from the novel to the transformative.

Most people agree we do not need to know how a television works to enjoy using one. This is true of many existing and emerging technologies. Most of us happily drive cars, use mobile phones and send emails without knowing how they work. With this in mind, here is a tech-free user guide to the blockchain - the technology infrastructure behind bitcoin...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 18th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

No wonder Saudis are selling as much as they can!

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

We are getting much more energy efficient – no wonder Saudis are selling as much as they can! Who wants to be the one with trillions of dollars of oil in the ground unwanted:

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/07/the-amount-of-energy-needed-to-run-the-worlds-economy-is-decreasing-on-average/#p3

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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