Author Archive for Pharmboy

Phil’s Stock World – Vegas Style

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Greetings members….and welcome back from a fabulous time in Vegas, and then a little time for a Thanksgiving filled with friends and family. 

PSW in Vegas had a great turn out, and lots of questions were asked and answered by Phil, Craigzooka, Ron and Pharm.  A very big thanks to Savi and LVModa for making the time spent efficient and productive!  Now, on to a summary of the presentations.

As always, for any new members, things started off with how to manage a portfolio.   The amount that the portfolio has in it is not important, it is how those funds are deployed.  When first joining PSW, many think that they should jump right in and start trading with Phil and the like, as every trade appears like a winner.  But, that is not what the board is about….it is about sustaining our funds, and letting it grow through time.

With that in mind, The Man Who Planted Trees is where to start the PSW experience.

 

Instead of writing a summary about the video, take the time to watch it.  Think about its message, and how it relates to your investing style.

Being in Vegas, Phil pointed out that the city was built on "being the house."  The stock market is nothing more than gambling.  One 'invests' in companies 'betting' that the value of that investment will grow with time.  If one invests in a stock, why not collect rent on that investment – selling calls and puts against the position.  If the company pays a dividend, then that is an added bonus.  By selling 'premium,' one is being the house.  When selling the puts, though, it is important to remember that one better 'damn' well want to own the stock at that price, or have a counter move to buffer any potential moves in the stock price.  Hence, the buy-write method, where one can own the stock for a 20% discount.

This is a simple way to invest (gamble), and it is good to re-evaluate every month or so if the positions are long term buy-writes – meaning out 3 mo or more.

A side note:  Apple (AAPL) was a mainstay of many conversations, and it is my personal belief that investors (gamblers) should stay away from this stock. …
continue reading





Still Here, Just Waiting…..Biotechs Are In a Holding Pattern

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

A few months have passed since my last post, as there has been things happening in the biotech world, but nothing 'new' enough to jump on board and get behind.  Drug development is a long, arduous process, and clinical trials are the worst.  The smaller the diseases are in a population, the longer it takes to enroll, test and then post results. 

At PSW, we have been patient investors in MITI (bought by Amgen), CRIS, EXEL, SGEN and many others, and waiting in the wings are CLDX, YMI, and now PGNX.  I noted several years ago, that cancer and neuroscience are the final frontiers to conquer, and they remain today where they were then…so time does not change things that fast!  Diabetes and cardiovascular diseases are pretty well served with existing therapies, and yes, there will be a few that creep into the space, but overall these diseases needs are met.  The hottest areas in pharma today remain small, elusive, and lucrative diseases that demand a premium – cancer and fibrosis.

Fibrosis is another topic, and in the next few months, an article or two will go over some new therapies for fibrosis, which can manifest itself in several different disease types (IPF, kidney, scleroderma, etc).  For now, this article will focus on cancer treatments, and more specifically, monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) that have attached to them a chemotherapeutic.

First, a short summary on mAbs and how they work. 

Antibodies are used by the immune system to clear pathogens from the body.  The antibody protein is in the shape of a Y, where the trunk is the effector region (similar in most antibodies) an the ends of the Y are the variable regions (paratope) that bind the pathogen (antigen). 

Antibodies are produced by B-cells that is used by the immune system to identify and neutralize foreign objects such as bacteria and viruses. There are several types of antibodies made for the defense of the body, and they can be read about here.

Scientists figured out how to manufacture antibodies to a specific antigen in the late 1970s, but it was not until the '80s that the use became more feasible.  Mouse hybrids were the first antibodies used (called chimeric…
continue reading





2012 Vegas Information for PSW Members

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Last year, members gathered around a few tables and enjoyed meeting each other and listening to all our recent disasters on investing.  Phil talked about managing portfolios, and rambled here and there about how great Pharmboy was ( :) ).  No, really, the time was well spent, LVModa put on a good venue for us to eat, drink, chat, and most importantly, learn.

This year we hope to have more members show up and give their take on trading, investing, as well as just meet who is whom behind the mask. Details are noted below on who, where, and when.

Who:  PSW memebers – open to anyone who want wants to pay Savi

Where:  Las Vegas – many stayed at the Vdara, but the meetings took place at Cafe Moda LV, 3400 South Jones Blvd, Las Vegas, NV 89146

When:  November 10-12

  • Saturday Night ~7 meet for dinner (dutch payment, probably Nobu) also poker for those interested.
  • Sunday 11 am – lunch at Cafe Moda, Meeting until about 4
    • Opening Remarks – Phil
    • BBBW – Ron
    • TA & Pharma Investing – Pharmboy
    • Open Mike!
  • Monday 6 am – breakfast and be there before the market opens until market closing (about 1 pm)

Costs: $200 deposit, minimum of 25 members, maximum 50 members.  Money pays for Cafe Moda venue, internet access, lunch (Nov 11) and breakfast (Nov 12).

Pay Savi S. via Paypal.  Contact info is savi_ted at hotmail dot com





Big Pharma Review Part 2

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Throughout the global pharmaceutical industry, 47% of respondents are ‘more optimistic’ about revenue growth for their company over the next 12 months relative to the previous 12 months.  A further 28% of respondents are ‘neutral’ about revenue growth as compared with 23% who are ‘less optimistic’ about their company’s revenue prospects (InfoGrok).  China is expected to continue to be a large part of the industry's growth, where the EU (obviously) is expected to slow down.  Overall, though, the pharma industry is still working through its patent cliff, with the final last call for a few blockbusters (The Calm Before the Storm). 

This is the second installment of the Big Pharma Review where the pipelines of GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, Eli Lilly, Sanofi, and AstraZeneca will be updated/discussed (Part 1 is here).

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) has been in the headlines recently for its desire to acquire Human Genome Sciences for $13/share ($2.6B).  The company has plenty of cash, and it is not like it cannot afford HGSI, as GKS has a market capitalization of $114B. The company generates revenue of $43B and has a net income of $8.6B.  GSK has also increasing its stake in Theravance (THRXarticle on THRX here), and bought a German company, Cellzome, which uses a proteomics technology to analyze the efficiency of a drug and for safety profiling research.

The company's flagship products are in respiratory (Seretide/Advair (named Beyond Advair) and Avodart).  In recent news, two experimental melanoma medicines (dabrafenib and trametinib) slowed the progress of cancer with few skin complications in an early study.   Dabrafenib works by inhibiting BRAF, a mutant gene that spurs cancer cell growth in about half of melanoma patients, while trametinib is designed to thwart a related protein called MEK, which helps tumors resist an assault on BRAF.  The drug combination had a lower incidence of rash and skin lesions than had been previously reported with Roche’s Zelboraf, according to a study of 77 patients with advanced melanoma, the most-severe form of skin cancer.

Vaccines, cardiovascular and dermatology (with its Stifel acquisition from a few years ago) will continue to drive growth.  David Redfern of JPM has a very good slide deck from its 2011 Conference on GSK's revenue and pipeline here (PDF of GSK's pipeline…
continue reading





Big Pharma – Where Are We Now?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

In this article, please revisit an article written two years ago titled, "The Calm Before the Storm."  This article focused on the patent cliff that was looming in the pharmaceutical industry, that was later picked up by the New York Times and several other bloggers!  Subsequent articles were written about big pharma company's revenue streams, and the pros and cons of of their later stage pipelines.  Other articles have also attempted to identify smaller biotechs with the potential to reap big rewards, because these biotechs are possible acquisition candidates by the big pharma companies that need to fill their coffers with new, multi-billion dollar drugs -  the so called "blockbusters."

Forbes has an informative article that projects three different revenue scenarios in in the pharmaceutical industry. Forbes's last figure (below) shows what companies will best weather the storm by combining "total company revenues."

In the 'Storm' article, it is noted that pharma growth rates should be growing less or starting to stall into 2014 due to the patent cliffs (see Table 1).  A few examples of slow growing revenue streams are (2010 -2011): Pfizer $67.1B to $67.4B; Merck $46B to $48B, JNJ $62B to $62B, and AMGN $15.1 to $15.5.  The industry is still ripe for consolidation based upon forward earnings, and the numbers of blockbusters will be dwindling.  The industry is taking on more risk in therapy areas that are unmet medical needs, but have fewer patients to treat – thus higher prices will ensue.  Monoclonal antibodies (mAb) for cancer and other 'biologics' fit this pricey niche area.

Table 1. Patent Cliff 2010 – 2012
Company Drug Indication Sales in $B (2009) Patent Expiration
Pfizer/Eisai Aricept Alzheimer’s 1 2010
Merck Cozaar Hypertension 3.6 2010
Pfizer Lipitor Cholesterol 12.5 2011
JnJ Levaquin Antibiotic 1.5 2011
Sanofi/BMS Plavix Anticoagulant 9.3 2011
AstraZeneca Seroquel Antipsychotic 4.9 2011
Lilly Zyprexa Antipsychotic 4.9 2011
Merck Singulair Asthma 4.7


continue reading





Pharmboy in Technically Speaking

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Excerpt from Stock World Weekly, Technically Speaking, April 22, 2012. 

Courtesy of Pharmboy

That was a nice selloff – one that we have been waiting for, and there may be more to come! This gives us an opportunity to start easing into a few more positions that are already in our virtual portfolio. The virtual portfolio had a few options that we sold and that expired worthless this month: the PLX $5 April 2012 puts, and the INFI $5 April 2012 puts. 

Protalix BioTherapeutics, Inc. (PLX, $6.78) has an FDA decision coming up, and we have several positions in it still open. I’m waiting for the decision. For those that like to gamble on risky events, the May $7.5 calls make a good risk/reward for $0.80 cents. I like selling the $10 calls for $0.25 cents, which limits the upside, but also reduces the cost to $0.55 cents for the spread. 

OPKO Health, Inc. (OPK, $4.99) is another biotech I like at current prices. Scott Brown at Sabrient has also featured OPK as an insider buying play in Stock World Weekly’s April 1 issue:

Scott sent in two long trade ideas for this week’s newsletter. First, Scott likes OPKO Health Inc. (OPK, $4.73) because of the repeated insider buying of the stock. “55 buys this year … almost daily.” Scott shared an interview with Dr. Phillip Frost, OPKO’s Chairman and CEO, on Seeking Alpha, by John Eastman. Here’s the introduction:

“‘OPKO Health Inc. Is a pharmaceutical and diagnostics company headquartered in Miami, FL that develops and commercializes novel and proprietary technologies that include molecular diagnostics tests, vaccines to diagnose, treat, and prevent neurological disorders, infectious diseases, oncology, and ophthalmologic diseases. The company works in the United States, Chile, and Mexico and is headed by Phillip Frost, M.D…’ Continue reading the interview with Dr. Frost here.

OPK’s CEO continues to accumulate shares, and the stock is trading at around $5. I think selling the September $5 call and put for $1.20 combined, coupled with the purchase of shares, has a good risk/reward profile.

As for other new trades:

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX, $36.58) was already a winner once, and I think the time is ripe to start scaling in for owning shares of this company longer term. I like selling one…
continue reading





VVUS and ARNA

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

By Pharmboy at Phil's Stock World

Excerpt from Stock World Weekly, Tightening the Screws

I expect the market to continue pulling back. But biotechs should mostly hold their ground. There are a few catalysts coming up, including with the companies Vivus and Arena. Both companies have been focusing on the obesity market. VVUS has Qnexa (a combination pill of phentermine and topiramate) and ARNA has Lorqess (a novel 5-HT2c receptor agonist).

Catalyst 1 – Vivus's stock (VVUS, $22.53) rocketed up on the PDUFA thumbs up (PDUFA = Prescription Drug User Fee Act – a group of doctors and experts meet to express their opinion about a drug). The FDA usually follows the experts’ recommendation, but not always. The FDA has yet to rule. A ruling should happen on or before April 17, 2012.

For VVUS, I like playing for a failure, as the risks to me outweigh any benefits. A very conservative GAMBLE is buying an April 2012 $20/$19 bull put spread for $0.30 or less.

Catalyst 2 – Arena (ARNA, $3.07) had a strong run from the $1.20 range, and now trades at $3.

ARNA has a PDUFA date set for June 27, 2012. If VVUS gets approval, ARNA should fair well. If VVUS is rejected, ARNA still has a chance to do well due to its drug having a different mechanism, as well as due to the patent life on its molecule.

For ARNA, I like playing a July 2012 $2.50/$3.50 bull call spread for $0.35 or less. 

Trades on these companies are all- or- none scenarios – i.e., RISKY.

 





Let’s Review: My Favorite Biotechs

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Good day PSW Members!  It has been a while since the last post, but biotech plays have been active in chat, as well as in Stock World Weekly with new trades, and updating existing ones.  I must say that the biotechs and pharma are doing well in my portfolio!  This article is mainly for the many new members that have joined the PSW chat over the past few months, as many of us oldie' but goodies are in the stock plays below in some form or another.

It remains my belief that the next few years are going to be big years for biotechs.  Pharma has expiring patents, and the big players continue to scour the landscape for up and coming companies and therapies.  One we played was MITI, and that was a nice winner for a longer term hold.  At PSW, buying and selling biotechs as day trades is not the style, as we invest in companies for longer term holds, or play them into major events, then reduce our risks/exposers using options and hedging strategies.

At the end of January, Infinity Pharma (INFI) dropped like a rock and we jumped an a conservative buy write that was a bit too conservative (bought the stock and sold the April $8/7 strangle).  INFI's stock is now above where it was when it dropped, amazing but this is how we like to enter biotechs, as if we bought at $10, well, it may not have recovered…..but that is water under the bridge now.  The company has 3 development candidates described below:

  • Saridegib (also known as IPI-926) is a novel, potent, oral molecule that inhibits Smoothened, a key component of the Hedgehog pathway.  The chemical is semi-synthetic derivative of the alkaloid cyclopamine.  The hedgehog pathway was noted in the Curis article here
  • Retaspimycin hydrochloride (also known as IPI-504) is an intravenously administered, potent and selective heat shock protein 90 (Hsp90) inhibitor.  HSP90 is a chaperone to other proteins – in other words, they help in the folding or unfolding of proteins as they are being made or broken down.  Think of them as the arm in a car assembly line that aid in the production or destruction of the automobile.  In cancer, HSP90 helps stabilize proteins that are upregulated in cancer.  


continue reading





Biotech Investing for 2012

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.  Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game.  More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline.  In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up.  I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect.  I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on the vacillations of the market to reduce our cost basis.  I believe our virtual biotech portfolio is well positioned with many companies that have upside potential.

I am starting to dive into the pipelines of a few companies that went IPO last year, and there is one sticks out at me, Endocyte.

Endocyte (ECYT) has six programs in various stages of clinical trials.  The company was founded in 1996, has no marketed products, but boasts a pipeline of cancer/inflammatory disease  candidates with companion diagnostics.

First, understanding what the company's drugs do is important, then diving into the pipeline will make some sense.

Folate (water soluble Vitamin B9) is needed for DNA synthesis, DNA repair, and DNA methylation as well as to act as a co-factor in biological reactions.  In essence, it helps cells grow and multiply.  Now, scientists (chemists) are good at manipulating and mimicking  biological systems, and Endocyte has drugs that incorporate folate with vinca akloids attached to them (called a 'Trojan Horse' process).   The folate-drug complex binds to the folate receptor (FR) that is over-expressed on the cell surface of many cancers and is subsequently taken into the cell (endocytosis).   Molecules as diverse as small radiodiagnostic imaging agents to large DNA plasmid formulations have successfully been delivered inside FR-positive cells and tissues.  Endocyte has one type of folate-drug delivery system for different cancer types.

Endocyte's lead drug is EC145 which targets the…
continue reading





The Skinny on the Hepatitis C Market

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

For the past few years at Phil’s Stock World, many of my articles have focused on cancer therapies or the robust (or not so robust) big pharma pipelines.  I have not delved into many specific diseases, their mechanisms, and potential treatments.  Two of the hottest areas in the industry right now are fibrosis and hepatitis C.  In the fibrosis area, large deals are being made for early stage compounds in scientifically plausible, but unproven mechanisms (Gilead’s purchase of Arresto Biosciences for $225M, Bristol-Myers buying Amira Pharmaceuticals for $325M).  Fibrosis will be a topic for another write-up.  The area where there is a flurry of activity is in the treatment of hepatitis C.  Vertex and Merck received approval for their new drugs in May 2011, Incivek and Victrelis, respectively, where Roche bought Anadys Pharmaceuticals for $230M, and Gilead is purchasing Pharmassett for $11B! 

Hepatitis C (HCV) is a viral disease that is spread by blood to blood contact, and it primarily affects the liver.  The infection is often asymptomatic, but chronic infection can lead to scarring of the liver and ultimately to liver cirrhosis.  Liver cirrhosis can lead to liver failure and/or other complications, including liver cancer or life-threatening esophageal and gastric varices.1 There is no known cure or vaccine for HCV, and an estimated 180M people are infected .  The shear number of infections makes it an attractive market for pharmaceutical companies, and thus there are many drugs being clinically tested. 

Figure 2. HCV Infections

After an HCV infection, the disease enters an acute phase and subsequently, a chronic phase.  During the acute phase, people often have flu-like symptoms, decreased appetite, fatigue,abdominal pain, jaundice, and itching.  The acute phase is considered less than 6-months.  The chronic phase (50-80% of those infected) of the disease is noted by higher liver enzymes (ALT/AST), and is often discovered when people are going through a routine checkup.  The liver is often inflamed, and cirrhosis and fibrosis could also begin to set in.  Of those that are in the chronic phase of the disease, approximately 20–50% do not respond to treatment. There is a very small chance of clearing the virus spontaneously in chronic HCV carriers (0.5% to 0.74% per year).

Figure 3. Common Genotypes

Like many viruses, hepatitis C has…
continue reading





 
 
 

Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.Date Found: Thursday, 12 February 2015, 09:05:43 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. Comment: GDX: Higher lower, holding above support. Pullback swing on less volume than up swing. RTT: Bullish.

Date Found: Thursday, 07 May 2015, 04:35:23 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. Comment: RAISE CASH, before the crowd does!

Date Found: Thursday, 07 May 2015, 06:45:04 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. Comment: Richard Wyckoff calls this a CAUSE, at the moment the selling waves during the cause do NOT give an indication of a break out down. Bias is bull...



more from Chart School

Zero Hedge

Chinese Stocks Are Now Up Over 100% Year-To-Date

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Another day, another dip to be bought aggressively in China. The only catalyst for moar - aside from "well it was up yesterday" - is the news that the Shanghai-HK Stock Exchange aggregate quota will be abolished, leaving room for more speculative excess to flood into 500%-gainers.  CSI-300 is now up almost 6% since Friday's close and Shenzhen and CHINEXT are soaring back from underperformance yesterday. To round things out on a superlative note, the Shenzhen Composite - which contains all the ponzi-based self-collateralized idiot-makers, is now up over 100% year-to-date. Simply put, you can't keep a bad market down...

...



more from Tyler

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 24th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phl's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

What the Supreme Court’s fixes for retirement savings may do to your 401(k) (Market Watch)

There’s no denying the effect that fees have on investments. While the difference between a fee of 0.5% and 0.25% looks tiny on paper, apply it to an index fund over a quarter-century or more of investing and let the effects of compounding work on it and you can easily see a worker winding up with tens of thousands of dollars less on account at retirement.

So it’s easy to see how and why the case protects workers and retirement savers.

The potential problems from the ruling are much harder to see, but they’re just beneath the surface now and likely to surface a...



more from Ilene

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Kimble Charting Solutions

King Dollar & Crude Oil reversing ST trends, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

King Dollar and Crude Oil have been have had little correlation over the past year, as each has traded in pretty much opposite directions.

Over the past 9 months King Dollar has had a historical rally and the opposite is true for Crude Oil.

Of late Crude hit its 23% Fibonacci resistance line, based upon last summers weekly closing highs and weekly closing low on 3/13/15.

Joe Friday just the facts….Crude oil is making an attempt to break short-term steep rising support this week and King Dollar is attempting to break short-term steep falling resistance.

Crude oil just experienced its 7th largest 2-month rally in its...



more from Kimble C.S.

Pharmboy

Big Pharma's Business Model is Changing

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Understanding the new normal of a business model is key to the success of any company.  The managment of companies need to adapt to the changing demand, but first they must recognize what changes are taking place.  Big Pharma's business model is changing rapidly, and much like the airline industry, there will be but a handful of pharma companies left at the end of this path.

Most Big Pharma companies have traditionally done everything from research and development (R&D) through to commercialisation themselves. Research was proprietary, and diseases were cherry picked on the back of academic research that was done using NIH grants.  This was in the heyday of research, where multiple companies had drugs for the same target (Mevocor, Zocor, Crestor, Lipitor), and could reap the rewards on multiple scales.  However, in the c...



more from Pharmboy

Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bullish technical picture appears to trump cautious fundamentals

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

By Scott Martindale

Stocks closed last week on a strong note, with the S&P 500 notching a new high, despite lackluster economic data and growth. I have been suggesting in previous articles that stocks appeared to be coiling for a significant move but that the ingredients were not yet in place for either a major breakout or a corrective selloff. However, bulls appear to be losing patience awaiting their next definitive catalyst, and the higher-likelihood upside move may now be underway. Yet despite the bullish technical picture, this week’s fundamentals-based Outlook rankings look even more defensive.

In this weekly update, I give ...



more from Sabrient

Digital Currencies

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

 

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

By 

Excerpt:

Bitcoin, the virtual digital currency, has been called the future of banking, a dangerous fad, and almost everything in between, but we're finally about to get some solid data to help settle the debate.

On Monday, the Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock exchange said it would ...



more from Bitcoin

Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: US Dollar

Which way from here?

Chris Kimble likes the idea of shorting the US dollar if it bounces higher. Phil's likes the dollar better long here. These views are not inconsistent, actually, the dollar could bounce and drop again. We'll be watching. 

 

Phil writes:  If the Fed begins to tighten OR if Greece defaults OR if China begins to fall apart OR if Japan begins to unwind, then the Dollar could move 10% higher.  Without any of those things happening – you still have the Fed pursuing a relatively stronger currency policy than the rest of the G8.  So, if anything, I think the pressure should be up, not down.  

 

UNLESS that 95 line does ultimately fail (as opposed to this being bullish consolidation at the prior breakout point), then I'd prefer to sell the UUP Jan $25 puts for $0.85 and buy the Sept $24 call...



more from Paul

Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



more from M.T.M.

Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

more from Promotions

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>