Archive for the ‘High Mailing Priority’ Category

Lest We Forget


Lest We Forget

Courtesy of 

This post first appeared on

In this web exclusive, Bill Moyers and four historians dissect the big lie Trump rode to power: the Birther lie. Nell Painter, historian and Edwards Professor of American History, Emerita, at Princeton University; Khalil Gibran Muhammad, professor of history, race and public policy at Harvard Kennedy School; Christopher Lebron, assistant professor of African-American studies and philosophy at Yale University; and Philip Klinkner, James S. Sherman Professor of Government, Hamilton College discuss the fertile ground on which the birther lie was sown: our nation's history of white supremacy.

Credits: Gail Ablow, Producer; Sikay Tang, Editor


BILL MOYERS: I’m Bill Moyers. The most important thing to remember about Donald Trump is that he was the same man at 12:01 p.m. Friday after he took the oath of office as he was at 11:59 a.m. before his swearing in. His character: the same. His temperament and his values: the same.

What’s different is that in those two minutes Donald Trump was handed the most awesome power imaginable. He now controls the world’s most powerful nuclear arsenal. The Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines and Coast Guard are at his command. The FBI, the CIA, the NSA, the IRS, Homeland Security, the State Department, Justice Department, Treasury Department, the Department of Education, the Interior Department — all of the agencies of the executive branch — report, ultimately, to this one man. The world awaits his pronouncements, the markets and the media live by and for his tweets. So here’s the second most important thing to remember about Donald Trump: He rode to power on the wings of a dark lie — one of the most malignant and ugly lies in American history. We must never forget it.


LOU DOBBS (CNN 7/21/09): Up next, the issue that won’t go away: the matter of President Obama and that birth certificate.

DONALD TRUMP (The View, ABC 3/23/11): There’s something on that birth certificate that he doesn’t like.

TRUMP (The O’Reilly Factor, FOX News 3/30/11): He doesn't have a birth certificate.…
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Sell Netflix, Buy Blockbuster


Sell Netflix, Buy Blockbuster

Courtesy of 

“The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones.” ~ Keynes

There’s nothing wrong with ideas, new or old, but the problem is that once we come public with them, it becomes incredibly difficult to change our mind. To admit that what we once believed is no longer valid can be viewed from the outside (and often times from the inside) as a sign of weakness, rather than a sign of growth. I want to look at a few real world examples of this.

Skip Bayless predicted in the preseason that Dallas would beat Seattle in the NFC championship game. Unfortunately for Seattle, they lost Earl Thomas to injury, who is one of the best safeties in the league. Looking at the tweet below, it’s clear that Skip thinks it’s macho to remain ignorant or unflappable even when the evidence changes.

After Aaron Rodgers delivered one of the best performances he doubled down on his stupidity, tweeting “Congratulations to Dak Prescott for again outplaying Aaron Rodgers, again holding off Romo and again performing like a clutch MVP.” It’s true that Dak played better than any Cowboys fan could have hoped for, but come on man. This is embarrassing.

I’ll give Skip a pass, only because his job is to be outrageous. I mean, he might believe his own bullshit, I don’t know. But he gets paid to be controversial. Financial analysts on the other hand, are not entertainers, they get paid to analyze companies.

Consider Michael Prachter and Netflix. Prachter’s negative views, which continue to this day, go all the way back to the beginnings. Here is an article from 2005, when he recommended to sell Netflix and buy Blockbuster. “Pachter initiated coverage of Netflix after they lowered their pricing on 9-28-04 with a sell. Subsequently he has reiterated this sale five times and presently has a 12 month price target on the stock of $3 per share. The stock closed today at $11.20.”  You would think that after twelve years of being wrong, and watching a stock gain 4600%, that you would wave the white flag and move on, right?…
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How to beat a high frequency trader


How to beat a high frequency trader

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker

The madness around trading the tweeting of Trump has jumped the tracks and landed itself among ordinary investors across the country. The new game seems to be trying to anticipate which industry he’ll target next and somehow make money from the volatility in the related stocks. Or, perhaps worse, to trade the reaction after a tweet hits home. The naïveté here is adorable.

In the first place, there are algos specifically set up to pick up on these tweets and errant remarks in seconds, with trades pre-sized and planned, ready to execute immediately. Is this the game you want to play from the Fidelity app while you’re at a stop light?

Realistically, you may nail a trade or two from this kind of thing, but I wouldn’t be planning to retire from it. It’ll go away. Remember the Carl Icahn tweets about Apple? That was fun for a few months.

I gave my two cents to the Los Angeles Times on the topic. I have a few quotes in here…

When Trump tweets, Wall Street trades — instantly (Los Angeles Times) 

A better game to play might be to figure out how much you’ll need to spend over the coming decades, work out the math on what sorts of returns you’ll need, include things like vacations, taxes, charitable giving, catastrophic health care (knock on wood), any inheritance you’d like to leave behind, any insurance strategies you can employ to lessen the tax burden on your heirs, etc, etc. Then work out what sort of portfolio will give you the clearest, most optimized and least stressful route to arriving at these financial destinations.

This is a game you can actually win. And if you need help with the answers to these questions, tell us. We all only have so much time on this earth, and nothing is a given. How much of it do we want to spend speculating on the 3am tweets of a consummate showman?

(Picture of Ichan with an apple: source)

The Most Powerful Force In The Universe


The Most Powerful Force In The Universe

Courtesy of 

Anyone can solve the equation 6+6+6+6. But ask somebody to calculate 6x6x6x6 without a machine and they’re going to look at you cross-eyed. The human brain was designed for linear, not exponential processing.

The other day I joked about the Dow reaching 2,000,000 by the year 2099, a one hundred fold gain from today’s prices. I was only kidding, but Morgan Housel told me for that to occur, the Dow would need to compound at 5.7% for the next 83 years. Considering the Dow has grown 7.14%  a year for the last 75 years, this seems totally within the realm of possibility.

This example from The Art of Thinking Clearly illustrates why the Dow reaching 2 million was completely beyond my comprehension (emphasis mine): “A piece of paper is folded in two, then in half again, and again and again. How thick will it be after fifty folds?…Take an astronomical guess. What would be a ridiculous number? Well, if we assume that a sheet of copy paper is approximately .004 inches thick, then its thickness after fifty folds is a little over sixty million miles. This equals the distance between the earth and the sun….Linear growth we understand intuitively. However, we have no sense of exponential growth.”

Let’s take a look at what compounding can do in the stock market. The chart below shows SPY since inception, with dividends included, versus the S&P 500 index, price only. The difference in returns over the last 24 years is an astounding 284%!

The cumulative dividend payout over this time is 46%, so this alone isn’t responsible for the gap. The remaining 238% is the magic of compounding; Dividends on top of dividends and returns on top of returns.


The most powerful force in the universe, as Einstein referred to it, is something that eludes many of us for two main reasons. One, most people just don’t understand how it works. For instance, 10% growth for 25 years is not 250%, it’s 985%! The second reason why many fail to take advantage of compounding is because it takes time. Like,

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Brain or Machine? Investing Holy Grail


Brain or Machine? Investing Holy Grail

Courtesy of Wade of Investing Caffeine

Source: Photobucket

Paul Meehl was a versatile academic who held numerous faculty positions, covering the diverse disciplines of psychology, law, psychiatry, neurology, and yes, even philosophy. The crux of his research was focused on how well clinical analysis fared versus statistical analysis. Or in other words, he looked to answer the controversial question, “What is a better predictor of outcomes, a brain or an equation?” His conclusion was straightforward – mechanical methods using quantitative measures are much more efficient than the professional judgments of humans in coming to more accurate predictions.

Those who have read my book, How I Managed $20,000,000,000.00 by Age 32 know where I stand on this topic – I firmly believe successful investing requires a healthy balance between both art and science (i.e., “brain and equation”). A trader who only relies on intuition and his gut to make all of his/her decisions is likely to fall on their face. On the other hand, a quantitative engineer’s sole dependence on a robotic multi-factor model to make trades is likely to fail too. My skepticism is adequately outlined in my Butter in Bangladesh article, which describes how irrational statistical games can be misleading and overused.

As much as I would like to attribute all of my investment success to my brain, the emotion-controlling power of numbers has played an important role in my investment accomplishments as well. The power of numbers simply cannot be ignored. More than 50 years after Paul Meehl’s seminal research was published, about two hundred studies comparing brain power versus statistical power have shown that machines beat brains in predictive accuracy in the majority of cases. Even when expert judgments have won over formulas, human consistency and reliability have muddied the accuracy of predictions.

Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize winner in Economics, highlights another important decision making researcher, Robyn Dawes. What Dawes discovers in her research is that the fancy and complex multiple regression methods used in conventional software adds little to no value in the predictive decision-making process. Kahneman describes Dawes’s findings more specifically here:

“A formula that combines these predictors with equal weights is likely to be just as accurate in

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“What Will We Be Talking About This Time Next Year” – Here Is Jeff Gundlach’s Answer

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Over the weekend, Barron's published its annual roundtable in which prominent investors previewed what they expect out of 2017: "a year of seismic shifts for the markets and, quite possibly, the world. Or, as Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen said at this year’s Barron’s Roundtable, “We are breaking a lot of trends.” As Barron's dubbed it, "this could be the year the movie runs backward: Inflation awakens. Bond yields reboot. Stocks stumble. Active management rules. And we haven’t even touched on the coming regime change in Washington, which will usher tax cutters and regulatory reformers back to power after an eight-year absence."

While there were many insightful observations by the group of participants – whose sentiment was decidedly more bearish than during last year's event – which included Scott Black, Felix Zulauf, Mario Gabelli, Meryl Witmer, Brian Rogers, Oscar Schafer, and Abby Cohen, we will focus on the predictions of Jeffrey Gundlach, if only due to his track record from the similar Barron's roundtable one year earlier, in which he turned out to be far more prescient than most of his peers, not least of all because he "made the greatest prediction at last year’s Roundtable—that Trump would win the presidency."

The first question posed to Gundlach was also the broadest one: what are you predicting now?

People have forgotten the mood regarding stocks and bonds in the middle of 2016. Investors embraced the idea that zero interest rates and negative rates would be with us for a very long time. People said on TV that you should buy stocks for income and bonds for capital gains. This is when 10-year Treasuries were yielding 1.32%. Someone actually said rates would never rise again. When you hear “never” in this business, that usually means what could “never” happen is about to happen. I told our asset-allocation team in early July that this was the worst setup I’d seen in my entire career for U.S. bonds. It occurred to me that the bond-market rally was probably very near an end, and fiscal stimulus would soon become the order of the day.

Based on a comparison in July of nominal Treasuries to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, the bond market was

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Matt Taibbi: “Insane Clown President Trump Was Right About The Media”

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While U.S. political journalist Matt Taibbi has made no bones about his dislike of Donald Trump… (via Rolling Stone a day after the election):

Most of us smarty-pants analysts never thought Trump could win because we saw his run as a half-baked white-supremacist movement fueled by last-gasp, racist frustrations of America's shrinking silent majority. Sure, Trump had enough jackbooted nut jobs and conspiracist stragglers under his wing to ruin the Republican Party. But surely there was no way he could topple America's reigning multicultural consensus. How could he? After all, the country had already twice voted in an African-American Democrat to the White House.

Yes, Trump's win was a triumph of the hideous racism, sexism and xenophobia that has always run through American society. But his coalition also took aim at the neoliberal gentry's pathetic reliance on proxies to communicate with flyover America. They fed on the widespread visceral disdain red-staters felt toward the very people Hillary Clinton's campaign enlisted all year to speak on its behalf: Hollywood actors, big-ticket musicians, Beltway activists, academics, and especially media figures.

Trump's rebellion was born at the intersection of two toxic American myths, the post-racial society and the classless society.

CBC reports that the Rolling Stone columnist admits in his new book - "Insane Clown President: Dispatches from the 2016 Circus"the president-elect got more than a few things right during an election campaign that brought to the forefront America's struggles with racism, class divide and economic stagnation.

One of Trump's gambles that really paid off, according to Taibbi, was painting a target on the back of the U.S. political media.

"The media and politicians had spent so much time with each other that they lost touch with regular people, and Trump capitalized on that. He made us in the media villains, representative of this out of touch, ivory tower political culture," he said.


"I think there's some fairness to it, as much as I dislike Donald Trump, he hit a note, several notes, in this campaign that were true, and that was one of them."

Another one, he says, is Washington corruption.

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Are Oil Speculators About To Get Lit Up Again?


Are Oil Speculators About To Get Lit Up Again?

Courtesy of Dana Lyons


Speculators in crude oil futures are back near their “obscene” record net-long position set just prior to the 2014 collapse in oil prices.

When we started posting our charts on social media and writing this blog some three years ago, one of the most popular early posts dealt with trader positioning in crude oil futures. That was at the beginning of July 2014, and to this day it remains one of our most popular posts. The title of the post was “Large Speculators Net-Long To Obscene Extreme”. And to look at the chart was to instantly understand the impetus behind the title.

Chart from July 3, 2014 post:



At the time, the trajectory of the record net-long position in crude oil futures by Non-Commercial Speculators (and by extension, the record net-short position by Commercial Hedgers) had gone fully parabolic. In the case of the Speculators, prior to 2013, their largest ever net-long position in crude oil futures was 276,000 contracts, and prior to 2011, the record was 176,000 contracts. At the end of June 2014, their net-long position was a record-smashing 459,000 contracts. On the flip side, Hedgers’ net-short position had grown to a record 492,000 contracts.

Why was that important? As we have explained on many occasions in these pages, this data from the CFTC’s Commitment Of Traders (COT) report provides a very useful look at the positioning of various groups of traders. The 2 biggest groups are Non-Commercial Speculators and Commercial Hedgers:

  • Non-Commercial Speculators are by and large commodity pools and hedge funds that exist mainly to trade the market long and short. These funds are normally trend-following entities. And while they can be on the correct side of a long trend, at extremes they are considered “dumb money” as they are typically “off-sides”.
  • Commercial Hedgers are typically financial firms and institutions involved directly in an industry reliant upon a particular commodity. Most of the time, they are truly “hedging” within the commodity market, primarily taking the other side of the Speculators’ trades.

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Yertle, the Commander-in-Chief


Yertle, the Commander-in-Chief

Courtesy of 

This post first appeared on

Dr. Seuss taught me to read. My older brother brought Seuss books home to me from the local public library because I was too young to have a library card of my own.

The Cat in the Hat, Bartholomew and the OobleckHorton Hears a Who!  — all, for better or worse, played a role in my early childhood development, a phase from which I have yet to emerge, but never mind. Yet as I watched Donald Trump’s press conference on Wednesday morning, a performance reminiscent of PT Barnum — if Barnum suffered from Attention Deficit Disorder, congenital petulance and anger management issues — I was reminded of a different Dr. Seuss masterwork:

Yertle the Turtle.

Yertle, you see, is the king of the pond “on the faraway island of Sala-ma-Sond.” But not content with the size of his smallish but prosperous domain, he orders nine other turtles to climb on one another’s backs to create a new throne much higher than before so he can have a more expansive view and rule over it all.

"All mine!" Yertle cried. "Oh, the things I now rule!

I'm the king of a cow! And I'm the king of a mule!

I'm the king of a house! And, what's more, beyond that

I'm the king of a blueberry bush and a cat!

I'm Yertle the Turtle! Oh, marvelous me!

For I am the ruler of all that I see!"

You get the picture. Except for Yertle’s Seuss-given ability to speak in anapestic tetrameter, a quality rare in turtles, our president-elect seems to share a number of his ego-driven traits, especially when he makes such grandiose pronouncements, as he did at Wednesday’s news conference, that “I will be the greatest jobs producer that God ever created.”  Meanwhile, back at Sala-ma-Sond, at the bottom of the stack, a turtle named Mack mildly complains about all the weight, which causes Yertle to demand hundreds of more turtles to lift him higher still. Mack protests again:


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Zero Hedge

Raoul Pal Warns The Day Of Reckoning Looms For VIX Shorts: "Reminds Me Of Portfolio Insurance In 1987"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

ubmitted by Patrick Ceresna via,

In a podcast interview on MacroVoices, Macro Guru Raoul Pal makes some comments on some of the biggest imbalances in the markets today. 

He compares the VIX contango trade to the portfolio insurance problem that was blamed for the 1987 crash......

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Vantage Protected Performance Fund Up 30% In 2016

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Vantage Protected Performance Fund commentary for the year ended December 31, 2016.

2016 Hedge Fund Letters

The Vantage Protected Performance Fund is managed for risk?adjusted performance. The objective of the fund is to generate double?digit returns with significantly lower risk and volatility as compared to the Canadian equity market. The historical success of the investment strategy is the result of effective stock selection (long and short) and a commitment to maintaining a hedged (protected) portfolio. The fund’s investment process is based on extensive, fundamental, bottom?up research with a focus on companies where operational or strategic catalysts can unlock significant value for shareholders.


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Digital Currencies

Why A Bitcoin ETF May Not Be Coming Any Time Soon

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

When it comes to the future of bitcoin, the "holy grail" has emerged as becoming the first to have a bitcoin ETF approved by the SEC.

Over three years ago, in 2013, the company of the Winklevoss twins, Cameron and Tyler, Winklevoss Capital Management LLC, launched the first proposed bitcoin ETF, the Winklevoss Investment Trust, looking to trade on the HFT-dominated BATS exchange. The SEC is expected to make a decision on it by March. A second group, SolidX Partners followed last July seeking SEC approval for its bitcoin ETF, SolidX Bitcoin Trust, which also would be listed on the NYSE....

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Phil's Favorites

How You Can #Resist ... With Your Portfolio


How You Can #Resist … With Your Portfolio

Courtesy of 

“We have become great because of the lavish use of our resources. But the time has come to inquire seriously what will happen when our forests are gone, when the coal, the iron, the oil, and the gas are exhausted, when the soils have still further impoverished and washed into the streams, polluting the rivers, denuding the fields and obstructing navigation.”

– Republican President Theodore Roosevelt

This post is not going to be political. My partner Barry Ritholtz has been at the forefront of the idea that ...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Big Oil May Finally Get to Drill in the Arctic, But Is It Worth It? (Bloomberg)

Far above the Arctic Circle, one of the longest-running controversies in U.S. oil drilling is about to reignite.

Bouyed by Donald Trump’s election, Republicans are pushing to allow oil exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the frigid wilderness in northern Alaska that’s been a political battleground for drillers and conservationists for decades.


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Mr. President you want this to hold, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Consumer Confidence of late has continued to move higher, now reaching above the highs hit back in 2007. Long-Term S&P 500 returns are far below historical norms, when confidence is this high. We are not saying that high consumer confidence means the market is at a top!

Below is a look at the Advance/Decline line on a short-term basis.


Joe Friday Just The Facts; It could be important for support to hold, of this bearish rising wedge above.


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Chart School

Small Cap Losses Accelerate

Courtesy of Declan.

Small Caps again took the brunt of the selling as Shorts took advantage of yesterday's small rally back to former support (turned resistance) to enter positions. With the 'bull trap' in full effect, the next target down for the index is 1,308. Of supporting technicals, only Stochastics [39,1] is left to break its bullish alignment,

The S&P took a modest loss, but not enough to break it out of its consolidation. Volume was also lighter. With the Russell 2000 on the way down, it's suggesting the S&P will follow suit....

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Members' Corner

How To Poop At Work?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Once again it's "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo". 

In our last episode, How to Poop On A Date? we were graced with a delicate shituation: what ever to do when your finally back at her place, snuggling in for a little "brown chicken brown cow" and you get hit with "Love Potion #2".

This week in How to Poop At Work? ,what to do when your at a big fancy pants meeting, when out of nowhere, you need to download a brown load?


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Swing trading portfolio - week of January 16th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan


Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...


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The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene




Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from

Chart below from


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Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!


Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas


Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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