Archive for the ‘High Mailing Priority’ Category

Pokemania: Nintendo Just Became The Most-Traded Stock In Japanese History

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Thanks to the fad-tastic launch of Pokemon GO – more popular than porn – Nintendo stock has exploded over 93% in the last 7 days (the most ever) to 6 years highs. But the Pokemania was really in the trading volume where 476 billion yen changed hands for the highest daily turnover on the Tokyo Stock Exchange this century…

Second-highest turnover for any given day was Tokyo Electric with 446b yen on May 21, 2013, followed by SoftBank with 431b yen on Nov. 29, 2005.

*  *  *

Seems sustainable, right?

Having second thoughts? Maybe you're right? From Gawker:

"Pokémon Go Is a Government Surveillance Psyop Conspiracy"

Less than a week after Pokémon Go’s launch, our streets are already filled with packs of phone-wielding, Weedle-catching zombies. They’re robbing our teens, filling our churches with sinners, and tricking our children into exercising. But worst of all, Pokémon Go is turning us all into an army of narcs in service of the coming New World Order.

Allow me to explain.

More like Privacy Poli-See Everything

There’s one section of the privacy policy in particular that seems to be getting the conspiracy theorists of the world up in arms and which Reddit user Homer_Simpson_Doh calls “very Orwellian”:
 
 
Most Orwellian of all is this line:
We may disclose any information about you (or your authorized child) that is in our possession or control to government or law enforcement officials or private parties.
As TechCrunch explained, Pokémon-loving millennials are far less likely to object to a few extra permissions when its Squirtle staring them in the face as they abandon their every god-given freedom than they do when Google reads their email.
 
Pokémon Go comes directly—directly—from the intelligence community
 
And it’s not like Pokémon Go itself doesn’t already have a direct(-ish) line to the CIA. After all, Pokémon Go was created by Niantic, which was formed by John Hanke.


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Weekend Reading: If I Was Janet Yellen

Courtesy of Lance Roberts of RealInvestmentAdvice.com

Janet Yellen, in my opinion, is about to make a critical mistake. She is not going to raise rates in July.

Why is this a mistake? Simple. No matter when you think there will be an economic recession, there will eventually be one. As I have repeatedly stated, the biggest problem for the Federal Reserve has been getting caught at the “zero bound” of interest rates during the onset of a recessionary contraction. Such a combination of events would leave the Fed without a very valuable monetary policy tool.

Come July, Janet Yellen and the FOMC are going to once again “punt” hiking interest rates in favor of waiting for “global instability” due to the “Brexit” to subside. However, as stated this is a mistake for a couple of reasons.

First, with the markets making new all-time highs, there is a “price” cushion available for the markets to absorb a rate hike without breaking important downside support as shown below.

SP500-MarketUpdate-071516

Secondly, with Central Banks globally flooding the markets with liquidity, as discussed yesterday, a further “shock absorber” is currently engaged in softening the impact of a rate hike.

“But, for now, a rash of global Central Banks continue to support asset prices by increasing accommodative policies either through additional reductions in interest rates or direct injections of liquidity. As Matt King from Citi recently noted:

‘It has been a surge in net global central bank asset purchases to their highest level since 2013.’”

Central_bank-liquidity

Lastly, the economy is likely going to show a bit of “strength” in upcoming reports, with slightly stronger inflationary pressures. This pickup in economic strength will be another inventory restocking cycle following several months of weakness. As has been in the past, it will be transient and that strength will evaporate as quickly as it came.

If I was Janet Yellen, I would hike interest rates by .50 bps immediately in a surprise announcement and use the price and Central Bank liquidity cushions to soften the blow. This would move the Fed towards its goal of reloading its primary policy tool while there is some ability to temporarily control the outcome of the rate hike.


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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 07-13-16

This week's webinar is ready to view. Enjoy!

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 07-13-16

Major Topics:
 
00:01:52 Checking on the Markets: NKD, DX, RB, CL, NG
00:04:05 Fed’s Rates
00:05:25 Weird Signals: GDP, Inventory-to-Sales
00:13:03 SPX Trade Idea
00:22:49 BHI
00:24:08 Short-Term Portfolio
00:25:12 10 Year Bond
00:31:43 US Money Supply
00:41:20 ABX
00:42:10 Value of Gold
00:47:56 SPX Low Volume
00:58:57 BHI
01:02:43 Biotech Trade Ideas: LABU, IBB
01:05:33 1% retirees/savers money
01:11:24 Checking on the Markets: CL, RB
01:13:49 Bitcoin, Gold
01:16:30 Fed’s debt
01:17:45 TASR
01:23:35 Checking on the Markets: RB. CL. NG
01:24:05 FRB: Beige Book
01:34:35 DBA
01:36:00 Shorting on YM
01:37:27 5% Portfolio
01:41:02 Butterfly Portfolio
01:41:20 Short-Term Portfolio
01:43:10 FAS
01:45:45 LABU
01:46:53 SLW
01:49:23 More Trade Ideas..

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. You can subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here

For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!





Hoisington Investment Management – Quarterly Review and Outlook, Second Quarter 2016

Scroll down for Hoisington Investment Management – Quarterly Review and Outlook, Second Quarter 2016, following an introduction by John Mauldin.

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Outside the Box

It has come to be a near truism that high levels of government debt and deficit spending suppress economic growth, but how exactly does that happen? In today’s Outside the Box, Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management give us a very detailed explanation of the dynamics involved.

On the deficit spending front, the authors state that the best evidence suggests that the US government expenditure multiplier is -0.01, which means that each additional dollar of deficit spending reduces private GDP by $1.01, resulting in a one-cent decline in real GDP. Additionally, the authors say, the multiplier is likely to become drastically more negative over time since the mandatory components of government spending (Social Security, Medicare, veteran’s benefits and the Affordable Care Act, etc.) will represent an ever-increasing share of the federal budget.

With regard to government debt, the authors describe a 2012 study by Carmen Reinhardt, Vincent Reinhardt, and Kenneth Rogoff (RR&R) that identified 26 major public debt overhang episodes in 22 advanced economies since the early 1800s, characterized by public debt-to-GDP levels exceeding 90% for at least five years. RR&R determined that these debt overhang episodes reduced the economic growth rate by slightly more than 33%, on average. As of last year, the US economy has met these criteria for reduced growth: government debt first exceeded 90% of GDP in 2010 and surpassed 100% in each of the past five years.

It is very significant, too, say Hoisington and Hunt, that while debt begins reducing economic growth at relatively low levels of government debt-to-GDP, as the debt level rises the debilitating impact on growth speeds up. That is, the impact increases nonlinearly.

The bottom line, say our authors, is that with global debt levels moving ever higher, we can expect that worldwide business conditions will continue to be poor and that the slowdown ahead will cut the already weak trajectory of nominal growth. We are at risk, they warn, of falling into a global “policy trap.”

Hoisington Investment Management Company (www.hoisington.com) is a registered investment advisor specializing in fixed-income portfolios for large institutional clients. Located in Austin,


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The Laws of Capitalism are Being Rewritten

"Science advances one funeral at a time. Portfolio theory, however, may require a mass grave."

The Laws of Capitalism are Being Rewritten

Courtesy of 

Poland, 1503: A young man named Nicolaus Copernicus returns home after years spent studying Catholicism and astrology among the priests and clerics of Italy. He is schooled in the ideas of Ptolemy, the Ancient Greek who had originally popularized the idea that the planets, sun and moon revolved around the earth. This idea had become accepted as fact and had been taught that way for over a thousand years.

But something bothered Copernicus about the movements in the sky he witnessed from the observatory atop his church. Specifically, the retrograde courses he saw the planets take, switching direction and seemingly traveling backwards on some nights. He begins to hand out his own booklet to friends, in which he claims it is the sun, and not the earth, that serves as the centripetal point in the universe. This upends the broadly understood Ptolemaic model and is even considered a form of heresy among his colleagues in the church.

***

In the early 1950’s, Harry Markowitz introduced his Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) as an explanation for how, by diversifying one’s investments, an “efficient frontier” of risk versus reward could be achieved and optimized. A decade later, William Sharpe and his colleagues took the concept a step further and introduced the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which sought to explain the sources of investment returns and lay out a framework for allocation decision-making. These are Nobel-prize winning theories. Many researchers have taken shots at them over the years and flaws have been discovered, but neither have been replaced or bested, despite the incessant attempts of thousands of academicians.

It is now commonly thought that the risk-free rate is the center of the financial universe and that the prices of all assets revolve around it. But what happens when the risk-free rate slowly ceases to exist. Or becomes a negative number?

Critics and revisionists of MPT and CAPM may have been wasting their time. Turns out, all of the potshots they’ve been taking for decades were entirely unnecessary. All it took to almost entirely subvert the laws of capitalism was a…
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When the Future Becomes Today

 

When the Future Becomes Today

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

“There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.”

– Vladimir Lenin

“However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.”

– Winston Churchill

First, I want to express my shock and quiet despair over the events in Dallas this weekend. The shock comes from this actually happening in Dallas. If anything, Dallas police are accommodating and work with the community as well as any police force in the country. But this event is a reminder that tragedies don’t just happen somewhere else. All it takes is one or two lone actors, and the world of somewhere else lands on your doorstep. This sad spectacle is part and parcel of what we will be discussing today: a world where common sense and reasonable discourse are breaking down, leaving us with social outcomes that only a few years ago would have seemed impossible. As Buffalo Springfield sang, “There’s something happening here; what it is ain’t exactly clear.”

I offer my prayers and express my condolences and deep sympathy to the families whose loved ones were killed and injured. (I’ll include some additional personal thoughts at the end of the letter.)

When the Future Becomes Today

Why do investors spend so much time thinking about the future? Any conclusions we reach are necessarily speculative. No one has a crystal ball. The efficient market advocates are correct when they note that we can’t predict the future. However, they’re wrong to say forecasting is useless (and they are off base with many of their other conclusions!). While we can never be 100% confident about tomorrow, we can often get close. Just as the universe abides by known physical laws, the economy follows known principles of human behavior. People try to minimize pain and maximize pleasure. If you can anticipate how they will do so, you can forecast economic results, not with perfect reliability but with high confidence. And so we spend a great deal of time forecasting outcomes for our businesses and investments.

Timing is the main challenge. We may know (or at least think we have a good idea)…
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New All-Time High for S&P 500 Total Return Index (save your asterisks)

 

New All-Time High for S&P 500 Total Return Index (save your asterisks)

Courtesy of 

You’re free to point out all the reasons, conditions, qualifications, if’s and or but’s you’d like, but today (Friday) the S&P 500 Total Return Index is printing a new all-time high.

spy tr

Take a picture, it may not last long. Previous new highs in this index over the last two years have been preludes to corrections.

Or this is the one. The breakout that keeps going.

In favor of this being the one – internals look fabulous, with confirmation coming from both advance-decline and the upturn in the NYSE hi-lo index. Not in favor? Plunging rates, an incoherent Fed, European ridiculousness – you know, more of the same.

But today it’s happening in the TR index. Save your asterisks.





26 Million Americans Are Now “Too Poor To Shop” Study Finds

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A new study finds that roughly 26 million Americans remain "too poor to shop." The study, performed by America's Research Group, found that about 26 million Americans work on average two or three jobs at a time which, when added together, nets just shy of $30,000 in annual income. All while supporting anywhere from two to four children.

The chairman of ARG, Mr. Britt Beemer, said in an interview with the NY Post that he first started looking into data when he was tracking a different indicator. Beemer first started tracking a group and surveying roughly 15,000 people to determine who had not finished Christmas shopping in 2014. During that year, the number was 21 percent but recently ran as high as 29%. From there Beemer decided to analyze the data further and learned Americans are seeing increasing numbers of fellow citizens who are simply just too poor to shop.

Beemer told the Post: "The poorest Americans have stopped shopping, except for necessities." And "It's scary when you start to see things that you've never seen before"…"People are so pessimistic about their future."

Just this past April we wrote: "Most Americans' savings continue to decline, and millions of US households not only don't have any money left over to save away, but are forced to resort to credit to fund day to day expenses."

Recall from January the piece from the Atlantic that review that weak state of American's finances. The Atlantic learned that nearly 50% of Americans were not in a position to find $400 to pay of a doctor visit without reaching out to friends. So not only are 26 million Americans too poor to shop, there are also 2/3 of Americans who have no savings.

"Various surveys that I have talked about in the past have found that more than 60 percent of all Americans are living to paycheck to paycheck, but I didn’t realize that things were quite this bad for about half the country. If you can’t even come up with $400 for an unexpected emergency room visit, then you are just surviving from month to month by the skin of your teeth. Unfortunately, about half


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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 07-06-16

This week's webinar is ready to view. Enjoy!

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 07-06-16

Major Topics

00:02:48 Seeking Alpha: Fed’s Tarullo said
00:08:34 Checking on the Markets: NKD, AAPL
00:13:00 CA’s progressive income
00:15:40 Checking on the Markets: NKD, NASDAQ, INDEX, CL, RB, NG, DX, YG, SI, YM
00:18:50 Trade Ideas: WTI, RBOB, NIKKEI 225
00:26:36 Options Opportunity Portfolio: SQQQ, TZA, TLT
00:31:28 Big Chart
00:32:41 Butterfly Portfolio: DIS, TGT, TXN, VLO, WMT
00:36:07 Short-Term Portfolio
00:38:18 NG, Utility Company
00:46:00 TLT
00:49:48 ABX, NAK
00:52:38 Equities
00:58:49 TLT, Trade
01:03:12 USD, JPY Trade Idea
01:04:21 Reserve Currency
01:10:42 YG Trade Idea
01:18:00 RB
01:21:26 FOMC
01:28:18 EWJ Trade
01:31:22 FCX Trade Idea
01:41:29 UNG
01:42:47 BHP Period Earning
01:49:38 Checking on the Markets
01:50:07 Top Trades: SDS

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. You can subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here

For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!





Stocks Entering Best Quarter Of Presidential Cycle…Sort Of

 

Stocks Entering Best Quarter Of Presidential Cycle…Sort Of

Courtesy of Dana Lyons

image

Since 1900, the 3rd quarter of election years has been the best performing quarter, on average, of the entire Presidential Cycle; although more recent results have not been quite as positive.

Perhaps as much as any time in recent memory, there seem to be numerous, potentially significant, cross-currents blowing in both directions in the stock market. At probably the bottom of the priority totem pole among such currents, for us, is seasonality. At any given time, there are plenty of other variables that we are more comfortable with in taking our cues on the market. That said, seasonality can, at times, have a very strong influence on markets. Furthermore, in the long-run, there have been few trading systems that would have kept pace with even a rather simple seasonality system. And one of the seasonal patterns with a respectable track record pertains to the Presidential Cycle.

Again, the Presidential Cycle refers to the behavior of the stock market vis-a-vis a 4-year Presidential term. Throughout time, stocks have tended to do very well during some periods of the Cycle, and not-so-well during other parts. It is not a fool-proof system, but it has behaved consistently enough to seriously consider its statistical merit. Therefore, while we do not directly incorporate it into our investment process, all things being equal, the Cycle can seemingly explain a good portion of the market’s movement. The problem is, all things are never equal, which makes it difficult to trust the Cycle with one’s funds.

Assuming, however, that one could reasonably rely on the Cycle, it may be entering a particularly interesting period. Specifically, since 1900, the best performing quarter of the Presidential Cycle, using the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has been the 3rd quarter of election years, i.e., the quarter we just entered on July 1. During the 29 cycles since 1900, the 3rd quarter of election years is the only quarter with an average return better than 5%.

 

image

 

Here are the returns listed from worst to best.

 


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Phil's Favorites

Are Stocks Coiling For Another Big Move?

 

Are Stocks Coiling For Another Big Move?

Courtesy of Dana Lyons

 

The S&P Mid-Cap Index is trading in the tightest 8-day range in over 20 years; is a big move imminent?

Yesterday, we wrote about the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s rare streak of 7 consecutive all-time highs since its long-awaited breakout. However, scanning the broad equity landscape, it appears that consolidation has been more the norm since the market’s last big up day on July 12. This consolidation is demonstrated by the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index as clearly as any space. Specifically, the 7-d...



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Zero Hedge

"If You Can't Touch It, You Don't Own It"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Jeff Thomas, Writer for Doug Casey’s International Man and Strategic Wealth Preservation, via SprottMoney.com,

The pending Brexit has, not surprisingly, caused a shakeup in the investment world, particularly in the UK. Of particular note is that, recently, asset management firms in Britain began refusing their clients the right to cash out of their mutual funds. Of the £35 billion invested in such funds, just under £20 billion has been affected.

For those r...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Gasoline Prices Around the World: The Real Cost of Filling Up (Bloomberg)

The price of gas is on the rise again—up five percent globally in the last three months. But cost per gallon alone doesn’t give a complete picture of how big a bite gasoline takes out of an average driver’s paycheck. We ranked 61 countries by three economic measures to see who has the most affordable gas, and who feels the most pain at the pump.

BofA Trading Tops Estimates as Moynihan Vows Deeper Cuts (Bloomberg)

Bank of America Corp. posted higher profit in each of...



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Chart School

World Markets Weekend Update: The Global Rally Moderates

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

The global rally in equities Moderated last week. The average gain of the eight indexes on our world watch list was a respectable 0.41%, down from the previous week's steroidal 3.87% average. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was the top performer with a 1.41% advance. At the other end, the chronic laggard Shanghai Composite fell 1.36%.

A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks

The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. We've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the compara...



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ValueWalk

Relypsa Inc (RLYP) Soars On Galenica Bid

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Relypsa Inc (NDAQ:RLYP) — to be acquired by Galenica AG (VTX:GALN) for $32 per share in cash is soaring this morning up about 58 percent at the time of this writing in early morning. On the other hand shares of Galenica are down on the announcement by about 8 percent. What are the details of the deal? Here is what the sell side analysts are saying about the pharma news.

Relypsa Inc (NDAQ:RLYP) bid – analysts react

Cantor Fitzgerald

Relypsa will be acquired by Galenica for $32 per share, a 59% premium over the last closing price. We have thought that Relypsa would likely be acquired at some point, given the opportunity to grow Veltassa to be a significant commercial brand, ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper going to peak again at 200 Day moving ave?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Doc Copper is often viewed as a leading indicator, for global growth or lack of.

The 200 day moving average is often viewed as the line in the sand to determine if an asset is in an up or down trend.

Is Doc Copper climbing above its 200 day moving average a good or bad sign?

Below looks at Doc Copper over the past decade with the 200 MA applied.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Copper peaked in 2011 and since, has continued to create a series of ...



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Digital Currencies

Demystifying the blockchain: a basic user guide

 

Demystifying the blockchain: a basic user guide

By Philippa Ryan, University of Technology Sydney

Companies around the world are exploring blockchain, the technology underpinning digital currency bitcoin. In this Blockchain unleashed series, we investigate the many possible use cases for the blockchain, from the novel to the transformative.

Most people agree we do not need to know how a television works to enjoy using one. This is true of many existing and emerging technologies. Most of us happily drive cars, use mobile phones and send emails without knowing how they work. With this in mind, here is a tech-free user guide to the blockchain - the technology infrastructure behind bitcoin...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 18th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

No wonder Saudis are selling as much as they can!

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

We are getting much more energy efficient – no wonder Saudis are selling as much as they can! Who wants to be the one with trillions of dollars of oil in the ground unwanted:

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/07/the-amount-of-energy-needed-to-run-the-worlds-economy-is-decreasing-on-average/#p3

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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