Archive for the ‘High Mailing Priority’ Category

News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Income gap: CEOs make 373 times average worker pay (CNBC)

The numbers are in on 2014 CEO compensation, and as the old Seinfeld joke goes, they are real and they are spectacular. CEO pay is also controversial as the income gap widens in America.

The average S&P 500 company CEO made 373 times the salary of the average production and non-supervisory worker in 2014, up from 331 times in 2013, according to the AFL-CIO.

Here's the story behind that huge disconnect in the stock market (Business Insider)

There's been a growing disconnect in stocks. 

Over the last few weeks, we've highlighted versions of the following chart from Bank of America Merril Lynch, which shows that US equity funds have seen massive outflows this year while stocks continue to climb to record highs

May 18 COTD

Wall Street is on the verge of saying 'recession' (Business Insider)

Wall Street has almost said it.

In a note to clients on Monday morning, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid comes within inches of saying the word "recession" to describe the US economy's fate during the first half of the year.

Graphing The Evolution Of The World's Debt Addiction (Zero Hedge)

It's no secret that the world is addicted to debt.

China for instance, has an astounding $28 trillion debt load that amounts to 282% of GDP, while the country's local governments are now undertaking a multi-trillion yuan refi initiative in order to cut the debt servicing costs on a mountain on high interest loans they acquired off balance sheet in an effort to skirt official borrowing limits.

Bank of America is forecasting a ‘scary summer’ for the stock market (Market Watch)

Investors might want to add a little cash and some gold to their portfolio’s summer outfit.

So say analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who are forecasting a grim summer for stocks this year. In other words, it might be wise to apply ample dollops of market-correction block in addition to any sunscreen you might wear.


continue reading





News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

Financial Markets and Economy

Bank of America: Markets Are in a 'Twilight Zone' and It's Time to Hold More Cash and Gold (Bloomberg)

In a note sent out this morning, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has a warning for investors: 

Investors remain trapped in “The Twilight Zone”, the transition period between the end of QE and the first rate hike by the Fed, the start of policy normalization…until (a) the US economy is unambiguously robust enough to allow the Fed to hike and (b) the Fed’s exit from zero rates is seen not to cause either a market or macro shock (as it infamously did in 1936-7), the investment backdrop will likely continue to be cursed by mediocre returns, volatile trading rotation, correlation breakdowns and flash crashes. For this reason we continue to advocate higher than normal levels of cash, adding gold and owning volatility in mid 2015. Given extremities of liquidity, profits, technological disruption, regulation, income inequality…potential for a cleansing drop in asset prices cannot be dismissed. Most likely catalysts: Consumer, Rates, A-shares, Speculation, High Yield.

Here's your complete preview of this week's big economic events (Business Insider)

Stocks are back at all-time highs. 

After spending about a month trading just off record levels, the S&P 500 powered back to an all-time high on Thursday and fractionally improved on this to end the week, closing at 2,122.73 on Friday

Screen Shot 2015 05 17 at 3.32.45 PM

Bank of America: Markets Are in a 'Twilight Zone' and It's Time to Hold More Cash and Gold (Bloomberg)

Investors remain trapped in “The Twilight Zone”, the transition period between the end of QE and the first rate hike by the Fed, the start of policy normalization…until (a) the US economy is unambiguously robust enough to allow the Fed to hike and (b) the Fed’s exit from zero rates is seen not to cause either a market or macro shock (as it infamously did in 1936-7), the investment backdrop will likely continue to be cursed by mediocre returns, volatile trading rotation, correlation breakdowns and flash crashes. For this reason we continue to advocate higher than normal levels of cash, adding gold and owning volatility in mid 2015. Given extremities of liquidity, profits, technological disruption, regulation, income inequality…potential for a cleansing drop


continue reading





Secular Versus Cyclical: Notes from SIC 2015

 

John Mauldin shares his notes and his thoughts on a wide range of financial topics presented at the recent Strategic Investment Conference, which he also says was the best ever, complete with intense and divergent views. In addition to his own notes, Mauldin includes notes from his associate Pat Watson and links to a summary by Chris Bailey and Steve Blumenthal.

Secular Versus Cyclical: Notes from SIC 2015

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

I put a great deal of effort into planning the speaking lineup for my conference. It is routinely called the best macroeconomic investing conference in the country each year, and I have to humbly agree. It takes work to make it that way. Last fall, when I began to consider my lineup for this year’s conference, one of the big questions on my mind and the minds of nearly everyone I was speaking to was Federal Reserve policy, so I specifically looked for a few new speakers who could address that concern.

The topic of what the Fed would do and what the effects would be was a running theme throughout the conference. That concern is mirrored in the following quote from Stan Druckenmiller. (I think I’ll try to get him to come to the conference next year.)

"Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve board. And whatever you do, focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity. Most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets."

Note: In a departure from tradition, cosponsor Altegris Investments has agreed to allow me to share one video of a conference speaker per week for the next few months. The videos are in production, and I hope to be able to bring you the first one next week. Now let’s look at my notes.

SIC 2015: Speaker Notes

First up was David Rosenberg. Rosie has been my leadoff hitter for a number of years and is a crowd favorite. Never in all these years has he failed to bring a new…
continue reading





News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

Financial Markets and Economy

Obama Lambasts Fox News, Jon Stewart Puts The Final Nail In Their Coffin (Liberals Unite)

During a panel discussion at Georgetown University this week, President Obama lambasted FOX and the media at large, but mostly FOX, for their narrative of the poor as lazy, parasitic, sloths.

During the discussion, Obama saidOver the last 40 years, sadly, I think there’s been an effort to either make folks mad at folks at the top, or to be mad at folks at the bottom. And I think the effort to suggest that the poor are sponges, leeches, don’t want to work, are lazy, are undeserving, got traction.

(Video here)

The Middle Class Has a Debt Problem (Bloomberg View)

Of all the burdens weighing on the American middle class, one has grown immensely in recent years: debt. Absent reform, it presents one of the gravest threats to the prosperity of the typical family.

For much of the past century, easier access to credit benefited most Americans. It helped them buy what many see as the necessities of a middle-class life — a home, a car, an education. Those assets, in turn, gave them the stability and earning power they needed to build wealth. Regular mortgage payments acted as a form of saving, making home ownership almost synonymous with financial security.

Interest Rates And The Bond Market: Why You Should Care (Value Walk)

Over the past couple of days, the bond market has had a bit of a snit. Rates for government bonds have risen—meaning that prices have dropped—around the world.

Take a look at the rates on the 10-year U.S. Treasury in the chart below, from MarketWatch.com.

Interest Rates Bond Market

Chicago-Cloud-Gate-#2-original.jpgStudy First to Give Investor Views on Complexity in Corporate Financial Reporting (CFA Institute)

Now that standard setters know what investors want in their financial reports, can they make them truly less complex?

Here’s where things currently stand: For years, corporate managers, auditors, and accountants have complained that financial statements are too long and complex, and that this complexity increases companies’ compliance costs.


continue reading





News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

Financial Markets and Economy

The Oil Price Bounce Has Failed to Excite Equity Analysts. So Far. (Bloomberg)

As oil fell in the second half of last year, analysts followed by lowering their ratings on European energy companies. They're still cutting, even as oil rebounds.

A Bloomberg measure that converts each analyst’s current stock recommendation into a number —from one for a 'sell' to five for a 'buy'— has continued to fall every month this year despite a 10 percent rally in the price of Brent crude. 

China Man bicycle bikeNothing China is doing is working (Business Insider)

A bunch of data about the state of China's economy came out Tuesday night, and altogether it told us one thing — nothing the government has been doing to save its economy from falling deeper into a slowdown is working.

Since November, China has cut benchmark interest rates three times, including once Saturday. It has also loosened mortgage policies to prop up the housing market.

Euro Pares Gain as Draghi Underlines Commitment to Easing Plan (Bloomberg)

The euro pared gains as Mario Draghi said the European Central Bank will implement its bond-buying program “in full.”

The common currency was little changed against the dollar after earlier rising 0.8 percent to the highest in almost three months. Draghi, the ECB president, said in a speech in Washington that the central bank’s unconventional measures have proven effective, and low interest rates haven’t yet led to financial imbalances.

Debt Traders to Fed: We Dare You to Try Raising Rates This Year (Bloomberg)

Go ahead, Federal Reserve, keep trying to prepare markets for an interest-rate increase this year.

It isn’t working.

The longer U.S. central bankers wait to initiate their tightening cycle, the more traders push back their expectations for when borrowing costs will start rising. On Thursday, futures contracts were implying that traders saw the fed funds rate at about 0.3 percent rate by December. That’s the lowest estimate of the year, and about half the forecast for the overnight lending benchmark that the Fed gave in March.


continue reading





News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Dems cave on TPP after "holding out for more sugar in the coffee" (Aaron Task, Yahoo)

President Obama's effort to pass the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) hit a temporary roadblock earlier this week as Senate Democrats blocked debate on Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), which the President says he needs to finalize the massive trade deal between the U.S. and 11 other nations. But what many in the press called a "stinging rebuke" for the President indeed turned out to be a mere "procedural snafu", as the White House dubbed it.

Stan Druckenmiller sees ‘massive' problem caused by aging (Bloomberg)

Billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller said an aging population will present a “massive, massive problem” for the U.S. in 15 years.

“The young people are not going to be talking about cutting back,” Druckenmiller said Wednesday night in New York at an event hosted by Addepar, a technology company that provides software to financial advisers, fund managers and family offices. “There will be nothing to cut back.”

Druckenmiller, 61, has argued for several years that the mushrooming costs of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will bankrupt the nation’s youth and eventually result in a crisis worse than the financial meltdown of 2008. The government will have to reduce payments to the elderly, he said at the event.

Wholesale Deflation Strikes US Economy: April PPI Has Biggest Annual Drop In 5 Years (Zero Hedge)

Something funny happened on the way to the global reflation (telegraphed so loudly by the recent surge in 10Y yields to the highest level of 2015): PPI just crumbled by a sequential 0.4% in the month of April, despite expectations it would rise by 0.1% and continue the 0.2% monthly increase seen in March.   This was a -1.3% drop in PPI – the fastest fall in 5 years.

International Dividend Momentum Is All About Emerging Markets (Seeking Alpha)

Income investors have known this day would come eventually – just as you shift all of your focus to U.S.-based markets where the momentum was strongest, the tide turns to overseas strength. Emerging markets in particular have been a well-documented story of "great fundamental theme, awful price action".


continue reading





News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. Retail Sales Disappoint Again (Bloomberg)

American shoppers’ reluctance to open their wallets has economists stumped.

HSBC: Central Banks Are Running Low on Ammunition (Bloomberg)

"The world economy is like an ocean liner without lifeboats." That's the headline in HSBC Chief Economist Stephen King's latest note. What he's getting at is that with interest rates sitting at or near record lows in economies across the globe, central banks could be set for major struggles if the economy starts to sour.

Russian Car Sales Slump 42% to ‘New Low Point’ in April on Year (Bloomberg)

Russian car sales continued to plunge in April from a year earlier as automakers look to government programs and a stronger ruble to support the market.

Advantages Of Too Big To Fail Kick In After $50 Billion: OFR (Value Walk)

Yesterday Senator Richard Shelby (R-AL) put forward a bill that, among other things, would only automatically designate banks as systemically important if they have more than $500 billion in assets instead of the current $50 billion threshold (the Fed could still choose to designate banks above $50 billion). While a proposed ten-fold increase came as a surprise (a proposed increase of some size was expected), it does raise the question of what an appropriate threshold should actually be.

 

Too Big To Fail

Wal-Mart teams with Alibaba's Alipay (Market Watch)

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. WMT, -1.01% said Wednesday it is teaming with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. BABA, +0.88% to begin accepting the latter's Alipay mobile-payment system at its stores in southern China, the Xinhua News Agency reported. Customers at 25 of the U.S. retailer's stores in the southern city of Shenzhen are now able to pay using the Alibaba app, with more of the over 400 Wal-Mart stores in China to join the program soon, the report cited Wal-Mart as saying. While Wal-Mart reported a modest decline in its China sales for the fourth quarter of 2014, it nonetheless plans to expand its operations in the country, and the company said last month it intends to open another 115


continue reading





News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Korea's Export Engine Slips into Reverse as Japan Steps on the Gas (Bloomberg)

South Korea’s much-vaunted export machine is losing steam as the won rises against the euro and the yen, undercutting sales in global markets.

That's in sharp contrast to Japan, where currency depreciation is giving a leg up to large manufacturers that ship their wares abroad. 

American Meritocracy Isn’t What It Used To Be, In Five Charts (Wall Street Journal)

Last week’s WSJ/NBC poll found that Americans, by more than two to one, are more worried about their ability to get ahead financially than they are about the widening income gap.

A new book by Robert Putnam, the Harvard University political scientist, delivers some detailed insights into what’s behind those worries. Mr. Putnam joins President Barack Obama and Arthur Brooks, president of the American Enterprise Institute, for a discussion on poverty at Georgetown University on Tuesday.

Owens-Illinois to buy Mexican glass container business for $2.15 billion (Market Watch)

Owens-Illinois Inc. has agreed to buy Vitro S.A.B. de C.V.’s food and beverage glass container business for $2.15 billion in cash, a move that will give Owens-Illinois a foothold in the Mexican glass-packaging market.

Vitro VITROA, +0.20%   is the largest supplier of glass containers in Mexico. The deal includes five plants in Mexico and one in Bolivia, with a total of 4,700 employees.

Euro Strengthens for Second Day as Region’s Growth Accelerates (Bloomberg)

The euro rose for a second day against the dollar as a report showed growth in the currency bloc expanded at the fastest pace in almost two years in the first quarter.

The 19-nation currency was about 1.4 percent from a 2 1/2-month high reached last week versus the greenback. While German gross domestic product data for the three months through March came in below economists’ estimates, a separate report showed France grew the most in almost two years in the same period.

European GDP Growth Trounces America In Q1, Biggest Rise In 4 Years; Greece Back In Recession (Zero Hedge)

While the US economy was crushed by harsh snow in Q1, with its GDP set to be


continue reading





News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Barack Obama sadSenate Democrats just snubbed Obama and blocked his Pacific trade bill (Business Insider)

Legislation giving U.S. President Barack Obama authority to speed trade deals through Congress failed a crucial procedural test on Tuesday, delaying a measure that may be key to President Barack Obama's diplomatic pivot to Asia.

In a setback to the White House trade agenda, the Senate voted 52-45 – eight votes short of the necessary 60 – to clear the way for debate on the legislation, which would allow a quick decision on granting the president so-called fast track authority to move trade deals quickly through Congress.

U.S. companies aren’t doing enough to battle the buck (Market Watch)

Lately, the buck has been the biggest bugaboo of U.S. corporations.

Many U.S. companies have blamed the strong dollar for eating into earnings — so consistently, in fact, that some have likened CEO’s griping about exchange rates to the ubiquitous laments about “bad weather” heard during last year’s first-quarter earnings season.

The US economy is prepared for liftoff (Business Insider)

The U.S. economy is once again underperforming expectations, as it has in the first quarter of the past five years. Yet despite the recent slowdown, the economy is ready for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike.

BlackRock US EmploymentIndex

oil rig visit inspectThis has been the single biggest surprise of 2015 (Business Insider)

Energy companies have astonished investors with their first quarter earnings.

According to FactSet's Jonathan Butters, the energy sector currently has an earnings per share surprise rate of 28.7%, meaning companies are, in aggregate, beating earnings expectations by this amount.

This follows a quarter in which analysts cut their earnings expectations for energy companies by 50.3%, the largest decline since FactSet started tracking the data in 2002.

Greece Empties IMF Reserve Account To Pay IMF; Liquidity "Terribly Urgent" Says Finance Minister (Talk Market)

 Greece emptied an IMF holding account to repay 750 million euros ($840 million) due to the fund, a Greek central bank official said, avoiding default but underscoring the dire state of


continue reading





News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

Financial Markets and Economy

Verizon Communications to Buy AOL for $4.4 Billion (Bloomberg)

Verizon Communications Inc. agreed to buy AOL Inc. in a deal valued at $4.4 billion that intensifies the battle for advertising on mobile devices.

Verizon, the largest U.S. wireless provider, gets two of AOL’s technologies: its mobile streaming service, featuring live TV, original shows and pay-per-view, and its ability to automatically send targeted ads to mobile devices.

467429844 A FIN POL USA DCInflation worries have Treasury yields rising (USA Today)

The stock market might seem stalled, but there has been a lot going on in the bond market, where sinking prices recently have yields on a steady rise.

The 10-year Treasury note yield is creeping up, thanks to a domino effect of rising energy prices and growing expectations that inflation will tick up as well.

S&P 500: A Pause That Refreshes, Or Is the Top In? (Wall Street Examiner)

The current rally has reached extremes: more than three years above the neutral line of MACD and almost 500 points above the 200-week moving average.

People walk inside JP Morgan headquarters in New York, October 25, 2013.  REUTERS/Eduardo MunozBank parents or main units seen pleading guilty over FX: sources (Reuters)

The parent companies or main banking units of as many as five major banks, rather than their smaller subsidiaries, are expected to plead guilty to U.S. criminal charges over manipulation of foreign exchange rates, people familiar with the matter said.

A handful of banks will likely resolve forex-rigging investigations by the U.S. Justice Department as soon as this week: JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) Citigroup (C.N), British banks Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L) and Barclays (BARC.L) and Swiss bank UBS (UBSG.VX).

bank occupy protestBank execs held a secret meeting to prepare for anti-Wall Street talk in the 2016 presidential campaign (Business Insider)

Top executives from the biggest US banks, concerned about anti-Wall Street rhetoric that is already bubbling up on the 2016 campaign trail, are working to push back


continue reading





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Ten Tips from Warren Buffet

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Pivotfarm.

Warren Buffet isn’t one of the richest men in the world with the flair for making a fast buck or two for nothing. Or, so it would seem. In fact one of the Buffet bits of advice, however, is that nobody makes a buck as fast as they would like to.  He must be getting something right, however, otherwise he wouldn’t have a personal fortune standing at $72.3 billion today. He may not be the richest man in the world, but he has to be getting something right. Want to make it rich? Then, take the advice he has to give to heart.

So, was Buffet born with the business know-ho...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

In Denial: We Pursue Endless Growth At Our Peril

Courtesy of Chris Martenson at PeakProsperity.com

As we've been discussing of late here at PeakProsperity.com, humans desperately need a new story to live by. The old one is increasingly dysfunctional and rather obviously headed for either a quite dismal or possibly disastrous future. One of the chief impediments to recognizing the dysfunction of the old story and adopting a new one is the most powerful of all human emotional states: Denial.

I used to think that Desire was the most powerful human emotion because people are prone to risking everything in their lives – careers, marriages, relationships with their family and close friends - pursuing lust or accumulating 10,000 times more money and possessions than they need in their desire for “more.”

Perhaps it was my own b...



more from Ilene

Chart School

STTG Market Recap May 29, 2015

Courtesy of Blain.

It was quite a volatile week and indexes closed it off on a sour note as the S&P 500 fell 0.63% and NASDAQ 0.55%.  For the month of May the S&P 500 gained 1.05% while the NASDAQ added 2.6%.   Greece was again the focus – perhaps next week some eyes will return to economic data as the first week of the month is chock full of reports.   Consumer sentiment showed a final read of 90.7 for May, the lowest since November and below April’s 95.9 print.  A gauge today showed Chicago-area manufacturing activity contracted this month to its lowest level since February, raising concerns that the rebound from a weak first quarter lacks vitality.

Tuesday’s selloff led to a bull flag failure and despite the immediate bounce back Wednesday, this failure has stayed intact.

...



more from Chart School

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P 500 – Is it repeating the 2000 & 2007 topping pattern?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Could the S&P 500 be pulling a repeat of the 2000-2007 topping process?

The chart above reflects that the tops in 2000 & 2007 were 7 years and 7 months apart. Is it possible that another top is taking place 7 years and 7 months from the 2007 high? As the S&P is facing this potential time window repeating pattern, it is also staring the Fibonacci 161% Extension resistance level based upon the 2007 highs and 2009 lows, at the top of a rising wedge.

Is the S&P the only market facing a breakout test? The chart below takes a look at the white hot DAX index.

...



more from Kimble C.S.

Sabrient

Sector Detector: Stocks provide a tepid breakout as Fed greases the skids. So now what?

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Early last week, stocks broke out, with the S&P 500 setting a new high with blue skies overhead. But then the market basically flat-lined for the rest of the week as bulls just couldn’t gather the fuel and conviction to take prices higher. In fact, the technical picture now has turned a bit defensive, at least for the short term, thus joining what has been a neutral-to-defensive tilt to our fundamentals-based Outlook rankings.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the t...



more from Sabrient

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 24th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Pharmboy

Big Pharma's Business Model is Changing

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Understanding the new normal of a business model is key to the success of any company.  The managment of companies need to adapt to the changing demand, but first they must recognize what changes are taking place.  Big Pharma's business model is changing rapidly, and much like the airline industry, there will be but a handful of pharma companies left at the end of this path.

Most Big Pharma companies have traditionally done everything from research and development (R&D) through to commercialisation themselves. Research was proprietary, and diseases were cherry picked on the back of academic research that was done using NIH grants.  This was in the heyday of research, where multiple companies had drugs for the same target (Mevocor, Zocor, Crestor, Lipitor), and could reap the rewards on multiple scales.  However, in the c...



more from Pharmboy

Digital Currencies

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

 

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

By 

Excerpt:

Bitcoin, the virtual digital currency, has been called the future of banking, a dangerous fad, and almost everything in between, but we're finally about to get some solid data to help settle the debate.

On Monday, the Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock exchange said it would ...



more from Bitcoin

Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: US Dollar

Which way from here?

Chris Kimble likes the idea of shorting the US dollar if it bounces higher. Phil's likes the dollar better long here. These views are not inconsistent, actually, the dollar could bounce and drop again. We'll be watching. 

 

Phil writes:  If the Fed begins to tighten OR if Greece defaults OR if China begins to fall apart OR if Japan begins to unwind, then the Dollar could move 10% higher.  Without any of those things happening – you still have the Fed pursuing a relatively stronger currency policy than the rest of the G8.  So, if anything, I think the pressure should be up, not down.  

 

UNLESS that 95 line does ultimately fail (as opposed to this being bullish consolidation at the prior breakout point), then I'd prefer to sell the UUP Jan $25 puts for $0.85 and buy the Sept $24 call...



more from Paul

Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



more from M.T.M.

Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

more from Promotions

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>