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Archive for the ‘High Mailing Priority’ Category

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets)  
Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies)
Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of the year with a brand new trade idea)
 




Thomas Piketty, Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz: The Genius of Economics

Watch: A 92/Y "7 Days of Genius" video program featuring Nobel laureates Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz and French economist Thomas Piketty who discuss the "genius of economics" with MSNBC's moderator Alex Wagner. 

Thomas Piketty, Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz: The Genius of Economics

 

Paul Krugman: “It seems safe to say that Capital in the Twenty-First Century, the magnum opus of the French economist Thomas Piketty, will be the most important economics book of the year—and maybe of the decade. Piketty, arguably the world’s leading expert on income and wealth inequality, does more than document the growing concentration of income in the hands of a small economic elite. He also makes a powerful case that we’re on the way back to ‘patrimonial capitalism,’ in which the commanding heights of the economy are dominated not just by wealth, but also by inherited wealth, in which birth matters more than effort and talent.” 

 





Why Amazon and Google are Losing the War

If you missed this earlier, be sure to watch Scott Galloway's presentation on the large global technology companies and the challenges facing them. Galloway discusses Amazon ("pure play commerce doesn't work"), its disruption by Uber, and Macy's, Facebook's bait-and-switch, Instragam ("the most powerful platform in the world"), the smartphone economy (outstanding for employment, terrible for wages), attracting better mates with an iPhone, Apple's successful move down the torso into luxury, and more. 

Galloway speaks fast so you may want to watch it twice.  

Why Amazon and Google are Losing the War

Courtesy of 

Professor Scott Galloway (NYU) delivers one of the most masterful 15 minutes worth of important tech trends I’ve ever seen. He’s got strong opinions about what’s to become of Amazon, Facebook, Google and Apple – and the charts to back these opinions up.

An amuse bouche: “Google Glass is not a wearable, it’s a prophylactic ensuring you will not concieve a child because no one will get near you.”

Thanks to my friend Ken S. for passing this on. Watch it or miss out on what’s really happening:

*****

Back to me: Watch also Winners/Losers in a Digital Age. In Winners/Losers, Galloway discusses general trends in the digital age, winners and losers in retail, social media and the broader society. He explores wealth inequality and the 0.01% (an "upward spiral downward"), the US tax code, education costs, the middle class, job shifts, the "ipad effect," the myth of progress, and a number of large tech and retail companies including AMZN (the "Tony Soprano of ecommerce"), TWTR, EL, TGT, and ("the first trillion dollar company") AAPL's brilliant move into the business of luxury. Apple is, without a doubt, winning the war. ~ Ilene

 





Shovelin’ Schmitt Against the Tide

Outside the Box: Shovelin’ Schmitt Against the Tide

By John Mauldin

There is an obsession in the marketplace over the date when the Fed will once again begin to raise rates. As if another 25 basis points is going to change the economics on tens of trillions of dollars of investments. But as we reflect on the issue more deeply, it becomes obvious that a minor bump in the fed funds rate will indeed change a great deal of economics all over the world.

No, it won’t do much to the cap rate on your latest real estate purchase, but it is likely to greatly affect the pricing of the currency and commodity markets. And those markets will affect corporate profits, which will affect the stock market. It’s all connected.

And what if the Fed has lost control? What if they are in a no-win situation where raising rates will cause reactions they don’t want, but not raising rates will result in equally unpleasant reactions?

A big part of the problem lies in what we analysts call divergent and convergent monetary policies. With Japan mounting an unprecedented quantitative easing attack on currencies everywhere and Europe getting ready to join in, with smaller nations all over the world lowering their interest rates, if the US were to raise rates, that move would strengthen the dollar even more. But that would mean even more deflation imported into the US.

Today we find that the headline CPI was -0.7% for January, coming on the heels of two previous months at -0.3%. The year-over-year rate slipped into negative numbers for the first time since October 2009, when we were still reeling from a deep recession.

The Fed typically raises rates when it wants to lean into inflation, not when inflation is falling. Yes, I know that Yellen in her testimony and in recent Fed releases has said the Fed is confident that inflation will once again rise to 2%. And that, even if you take out food and energy, inflation has still risen at 1.6% over the last 12 months.

I want to thank Joan McCullough for allowing me to use the essay she wrote yesterday morning, which is the single best description of the dilemma…
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Kimble Charts: Coal

Kimble Charts: Coal

By Ilene 

Chris Kimble's chart for KOL shows a recently beaten down ETF struggling to pull itself up from the ashes. As the chart shows, KOL has recently drifted down to levels not seen since the financial crisis of 2008-9.

KOL (1)

Bouncing or recovering with energy in general, coal prices appear to have stabilized in the short-term. Reflecting coal prices, KOL has traded between $13.45 and $19.75 during the past year. Bouncing from lows, KOL traded around 2% higher yesterday from $14.26 to $14.48 on high volume. It traded another 3.6% higher in after hours to $15, possibly related to Obama's veto of the Keystone XL bill allowing construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline. KOL's back to around $14.56 now.

The chart below is of the NYMEX Central Appalachian coal futures near-month contract final settlement price history from Jan. 2008 to Dec. 2014. After running up rapidly in early 2008, coal prices fell quickly during the financial crisis. Coal traded in a narrower range since the 2008 spike. KOL's prices have behaved similarly. (Source.)

Screen Shot 2015-02-25 at 7.51.52 AM

Chris's chart analysis suggests that KOL might be ready to stage a breakout to higher levels. Chris likes buying KOL with a stop loss at about $13.87.

For free alerts from Chris on other interesting chart patterns, visit his website and sign up at the top right.

For an in-depth analysis of the coal industry, Market Realist provides A must-know overview of the US thermal coal industry for investors. The Realist notes, "There are six main publicly traded companies that operate coal mines in the U.S., which are also part of the Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL). These are Arch Coal (ACI), Alpha Natural Resource (ANR), Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU), Cloud Peak Energy (CLD), Consol Energy (CNX), and Walter Energy, Inc. (WLT), in order of production. In 2013, the top four publicly traded companies’ U.S. assets made up about a half of the U.S.’ annual coal supply." KOL's top holdings are listed here.

See also: Kimble Charts: Soybeans, 2-23-15.





Phil’s Stock World: The Magic of Compounding

Growing your wealth isn't just about making money in the stock market. In 2015, Philstockworld.com will focus on wealth-building techniques which, combined with our winning investing strategies, can help put you on the path to a life of financial independence.

 

 





Mamas, Don’t Let Your Babies Grow Up to Be Pension Fund Managers

Thoughts from the Frontline: Mamas, Don’t Let Your Babies Grow Up to Be Pension Fund Managers

By John Mauldin

We do not have to look to Greece to find massively underfunded obligations. Here in the US we can find hundreds of examples, willingly created by politicians and businessmen who proclaim they are working for the public good. We call them pension funds, but they’re just another form of unfunded debt. A sovereign bond is a promise to pay a certain amount of money over time. A defined-benefit pension fund is a promise to pay a certain amount of income over time. The value of either is determined by the ability of the government or the pension fund (or its sponsor) to pay.

I am in the Cayman Islands as I write this letter, to speak at an alternative investment conference attended by the management of some of the largest pension funds in the US and Europe, both public and private. Being here has motivated me to write this week’s letter on the problems that pension funds face. The pension fund managers I have talked with take their fiduciary obligations seriously, and they face some serious challenges.

I was on the stage with Nouriel Roubini (who makes me come off as the optimist), and we were talking about macroeconomic risks. I was asked what other sorts of risks people should be thinking about, and I cited a recent report about how pension fund obligations had dramatically increased because of a small change in mortality tables.

There has been a very steady increase in life expectancy over the last almost 100 years. It is a fairly well-defined trend. The actuarial accountants whose responsibility it is to track these things updated the life expectancy tables for a 65-year-old male, who can now expect to live an additional 21.6 years, two years longer than in the old table.

This trend toward longevity is very well established and is likely to accelerate as new technologies and medicines become available, which means that underfunded pension plans are even more underfunded than we think. [See yesterday's post: How Silicon Valley is


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Beware The Correction Of False Prices

Beware The Correction Of False Prices 

Courtesy of Charles Gave of Gavekal Dragonomics

I want to start this paper by reiterating a few of my strongly held convictions about the role of central bankers:

  • Economics is a branch of logic, itself a branch of philosophy, and not a branch of astrology (the good case) or mathematics (the bad case).
  • So when I see the guardians of the Temple of Mammon—otherwise known as central bankers—following an illogical policy, I am mesmerized. I start to have doubts, either about my ability to follow a path of logical reasoning, or about the sanity of the current breed of central bankers. As far as the first option goes, our readers can decide, and the market will be the ultimate judge. As for the second, allow me to make a few remarks…

Four basic postulates for central bankers

To think ‘logically’ one generally starts with a few postulates learnt from experience. What should these postulates be for central bankers?

  1. I expect central bankers to know that the future is unknowable. This has been generally accepted wisdom at least since the time of the New Testament: “But of that day and hour knoweth no man.”
  2. Since Karl Popper, central bankers should know that the amount of risk in a system is roughly constant over time and that any effort to minimize risk or volatility at any point in time (usually just before an election) will lead to its more forceful re-emergence later on (hopefully after the election). In this sense an economic system is much like one of Alexander Calder’s mobiles: if you restrict the motion of one of its branches, any disturbance of the system will lead to much bigger movements elsewhere.
  3. Since Knut Wicksell, central bankers should know that the greater the difference between the ‘natural’ interest rate and the ‘market’ rate, the bigger the subsequent booms and busts. If sustained, a false price for the cost of money increases the risk in a system exponentially. A false price for interest rates leads to a false price for the exchange rate. From there all prices become false and the economy moves ex-growth,


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The Cult of Central Banking

Outside the Box: The Cult of Central Banking

By John Mauldin

In today’s Outside the Box, good friend Ben Hunt informs us that we have entered the cult phase of the Golden Age of the Central Banker:

We pray for extraordinary monetary policy accommodation as a sign of our Central Bankers’ love, not because we think the policy will do much of anything to solve our real-world economic problems, but because their favor gives us confidence to stay in the market. I mean, does anyone really think that the problem with the Italian economy is that interest rates aren’t low enough? Gosh, if only ECB intervention could get the Italian 10-yr bond down to 1.75% from the current 1.85%, why then we’d be off to the races! Really? But God forbid that Mario Draghi doesn’t (finally) put his money where his mouth is and announce a trillion euro sovereign debt purchase plan. That would be a disaster, says Mr. Market. Why? Not because the absence of a debt purchase plan would be terrible for the real economy. That’s not a big deal one way or another. It would be a disaster because it would mean that the Central Bank gods are no longer responding to our prayers.

But, he points out, the cult phase of any human society is a stable phase in the sense that, while change may happen, it will not happen from within:

There is such an unwavering faith in Central Bank control over market outcomes, such a universal assumption of god-like omnipotence within this realm, that any internal market shock is going to be willed away.

However, there is a minor catch: external market risk factors are all screaming red.

I’ve been doing this for a long time, and I can’t remember a time when there was such a gulf between the environmental or exogenous risks to the market and the internal or behavioral dynamics of the market. The market today is Wile E. Coyote wearing his latest purchase from the Acme Company – a miraculous bat-wing costume that prevents the usual plunge into the canyon below by sheer dint of will.



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The Swiss Release the Kraken!

 

Thoughts from the Frontline: The Swiss Release the Kraken!

By John Mauldin

“Below the thunders of the upper deep,
Far far beneath in the abysmal sea,
His ancient, dreamless, uninvaded sleep
The Kraken sleepeth: faintest sunlights flee….

“There hath he lain for ages, and will lie
Battening upon huge sea-worms in his sleep,
Until the latter fire shall heat the deep;
Then once by man and angels to be seen,
In roaring he shall rise and on the surface die.”

– Alfred, Lord Tennyson, “The Kraken

"The exact contrary of what is generally believed is often the truth."

– Jean De La Bruyère

“Cry ‘Havoc!’ And let slip the dogs of war!”

– William Shakespeare, Julius Caesar, Act III, Scene I

“No mas!”

 – Roberto Duran to the referee at the end of his fight with Sugar Ray Leonard, 1980

If you want evidence that central bankers play by their own rules, regardless of what they say or what conventional wisdom tells us, last week’s action by the Swiss National Bank should pretty much fill the bill. My friend Anatole Kaletsky, in a CNBC interview not long after the announcement, quipped (with a completely straight face) that just as James Bond has a license to kill, central bankers have a license to lie.

Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan had assured us just the week before that the Swiss would continue to “hold the peg” whereby the SNB kept the value of the Swiss franc from rising higher than €1.22. “The cap is absolutely central,” he said. And SNB Vice Chairman Jean-Pierre Danthine said publicly only last Monday that the peg would remain a cornerstone of Swiss banking policy.

Early Thursday morning the Swiss abandoned that policy. Much of the press coverage in the (largish) wake of their surprise move has focused on the costs to banks and hedge funds around the world, but you have to realize that serious pain is being felt in Switzerland itself. Every bank and business that held non-Swiss-franc debt or investments took an immediate 15–20%+ haircut on its…
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Zero Hedge

Guessing Game: China's "Real" GDP Growth Could Be As Low As 3.8%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In “Ignore This Measure Of Global Liquidity At Your Own Risk” we pointed out that according to the very data points which Premier Li Keqiang himself prefers to examine for an indication of where the economy stands (electricity consumption, rail freight volume, and credit growth), China’s GDP growth is likely running far below the reported 7% figure. Here’s the visual:

Since then, the country has turned in a rather abysmal spate of data including a ...



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Chart School

Sellers HitAppl

Courtesy of Declan.

It was day sellers had control over not long after the cash open. The Russell 2000 broke from the channel in a clean slice which left the index just above the 50-day MA. The index had already suffered a relative loss to the Nasdaq and S&P, and today's decline just accelerated this decline. The S&P attempted a breakout but it was quickly rebuffed. However, losses weren't enough to take it anywhere near support. It will take another 2-3 days of losses to see a test of the trendline, which is the most likely area for a bounce. A close above 2120 would confirm a breakout. ...

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Phil's Favorites

6th Straight Negative New Orders Reading for Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

Courtesy of Mish.

New orders in the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey came in negative for the sixth straight month today.

Weakness was expected due to collapse in oil prices, but the business activity range number was lower than any Bloomberg Consensus estimate.

Bloomberg Consensus



Texas Manufacturing Weakens Again

The Dallas Fed reports Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Again
Texas factory a...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Sector rotation model stays bullish, but neutral rankings and technical resistance flash caution

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last week, stocks cycled bullish yet again. In fact, the S&P 500, NYSE Composite, and NASDAQ each closed at record highs as investors positioned for the heart of earnings season in the wake of strong reports from some of the Tech giants. Notably, Utilities stocks got some renewed traction as yield-starved investors returned to the sector. Although our trend-following sector rotation model remains bullish, strong overhead technical resistance and neutral rankings in our SectorCast quant model indicate that caution is in order, and this might not be the moment for a major upside breakout, particularly given the expected softness in earnings reports.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly funda...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Apple weekly breakout in play, $150 remains upside target

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Apple closed last week at an all-time weekly closing high at (1) in the chart above. Apple recently broke above its 4-year rising channel, came back to test old resistance and pushed higher, setting this new record high.

In November of last year, when Apple was trading below $110 per share, the Power of the Pattern shared that Apple’s upside target stood at $150. (See post here) 

Below is a long-term update on Apple

...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 27th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Digital Currencies

Why Bitcoin's male domination will be its downfall

Here's an interesting argument by Felix Salmon, although I think he is taking two correct observations and mistakenly attributing a cause-and-effect relationship to them: Bitcoin is going nowhere because women are not involved.

More likely, in my opinion, women are not involved in bitcoin because bitcoin is going nowhere (and they know it). Or maybe, simply, bitcoin is going nowhere and women are not involved. 

Why Bitcoin's male domination will be its downfall 

By Felix Salmon

Nathaniel Popper’s new book, Digital Gold, is as close as you can get to being the definitive account of the history of Bitcoin. As its subtitle proclaims, the book tells the story of the “misfits” (the first generation of hacker-l...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

By Ilene 

Chris Kimble likes the iShares MSCI South Korea Capped (EWY), but only if it breaks out of a pennant pattern. This South Korean equities ETF has underperformed the S&P 500 by 60% since 2011.

You're probably familiar with its largest holding, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, and at least several other represented companies such as Hyundai Motor Co and Kia Motors Corp.

...



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Mapping The Market

S&P 500 Leverage and Hedges Options - Part 2

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard.

In my last post (Part 1 of this article), I looked at alternative ETFs that could be used as hedges against the corrections that we have seen during that long 2 year bull run. Looking at the results, it seems that for short (less than a month) corrections, a VIX ETF like VXX could actually be a viable candidate to hedge or speculate on the way down. Another alternative ETF was TMF, a long Treasuries ETF which banks on the fact that when markets go down, money tends to pack into treasuries viewed as safe instruments. In some cases, TMF even outperformed the usual hedging instruments like leveraged ETFs. There could of course be other factors at play since some of 2014 corrections were related to geopolitical events which are certain...

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Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>