Archive for the ‘High Mailing Priority’ Category

Phil Davis Does Money Talk

In Part 1, Phil discusses oil prices, the S&P, the election for US Prez and Congress members, and the consequences of different election outcomes. In Part 2, he discusses Samsung and Apple, and in Part 3, Phil introduces his top candidate for Next Year's Trade of Year!

Money Talk: Options trader Phil Davis on election implications

Options trader Phil Davis discusses possible outcomes of the U.S. presidential election and the potential implications for markets.



Money Talk is Canada's premier personal finance show. Every Wednesday, we talk to industry players who provide you with important personal finance information that you need – from investment strategies to financial planning. Weekly Trading Webinar Weekly Trading Webinar – 10-12-16

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Major Topics:

00:01:51 Checking on the Markets
00:04:14 Indexes Status
00:09:33 Daily Indices Charts
00:13:10 AAPL
00:15:38 AAPL Long-Term Portfolio
00:17:09 AAPL Trade Ideas
00:24:07 Ericsson
00:26:12 Ericsson Trade Ideas
00:29:56 Long-Term Portfolio
00:30:06 Short-Term Portfolio
00:34:57 SHLD
00:39:51 SHLD Trade Ideas
00:41:10 More Trade Ideas
00:43:56 AAPL
00:49:;25 SHLD Trade
00:51:42 DXD
00:52:46 LL
00:54:24 FOMC Meeting
00:59:55 $WTIC
01:03:05 FOMC Minutes
01:07:48 Checking on the Markets
01:11:32 Trade Ideas
01:18:22 Mortgage Market
01:19:51 USD
01:21:17 USD Trade Ideas
01:24:16 Checking on the Markets
01:27:11 Profit Squeeze
01:29:37 Energy Consumption
01:36:37 Natural Gas
01:37:20 Coffee
01:38:35 JO
01:45:10 Coffee


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Desperate Central Bankers


Desperate Central Bankers

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Outside the Box

I have been pounding the table over the mistakes made by central banks all around the world for some time now. When I started I was almost alone because markets were still going up and there were obvious market overvaluations. My argument back during QE3 was that over time an uber-dovish monetary policy would lead to excesses. We have now come to that point and I am no longer alone in my criticism. There is a growing concern from many corners of the globe that monetary policy, far from being benign, is actually quite malignant.

The problem is that the people who are in control of monetary policy, the central bankers, are in complete denial about the issues. They see the response of financial markets, and when they talk to investors they see the smiles on their faces. Which tells you the crowd these people run with. If they were talking to average savers and investors, retirees and those on pensions, they would be hearing a different story.

I have been bringing this issue up more and more because it is the single most important thing happening, with regard to our economic future. I think the shape of monetary policy in the US is actually more important than who we elect president – unless the new president actually changes the people who shape our monetary policy. Then, in terms of the economy, that is important!

(I get that there are a dozen issues surrounding the presidential election that have nothing, or at least very little, to do with the economy. And for many of you those issues take a higher priority. My role in this letter is to talk about the economy and the investment outlook, and I generally talk about politics only when it has an impact on those issues.)

This week for your Outside the Box I want to offer a short essay from somebody whom I have followed and admired for many years, Stephen Roach. He is the former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm’s chief economist but is now ensconced as a senior fellow at Yale. In the piece that follows he highlights some of my own concerns but comes at the issue from a…
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Visualizing The Slow Death Of Traditional Media

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bill Gates once famously said that we systematically overestimate the change that will occur in two years, while underestimating the change that will come in the next ten. As Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes, the ongoing conversation about the death of legacy media definitely fits that mold.

Over the last five to ten years, people have been talking about how the newspaper, magazine, or radio station would become all but obsolete. And while certainly things have changed in all of these industries, it’s clear that there has not been a full paradigm shift yet.

Here is the evidence that we have finally reached that inflection point…


Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

Fixing the Plane

In a recent interview at the City University of New York’s journalism school, Ken Lerer described the challenges of traditional media as follows:

You have to fix the plane while you’re flying it.

Lerer, a co-founder of the Huffington Post and currently the Chairman for Buzzfeed, is alluding to the fact that legacy media has to maintain old business models based on subscription and print ad revenue, while successfully venturing into the digital world. The latter category is already hard enough, even without taking into account the balancing act of the former.

The moral of the story? Some of these “planes” are going to land safely, but most of them are going to crash and burn.

The cost structure of legacy media just doesn’t make sense in today’s digital world. Overhead is high, and revenue is harder to find due to the limited success of paywalls, rampant ad blocking, and the steady fall in display ad prices due to the emergence of programmatic bidding.

Legacy Revenues

Why has legacy media been so slow to adopt change? Why don’t they just lay off half of their staff, ditch print operations, and start from scratch?

It’s because their major revenue sources are as slow at adopting as they are.

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Here Is The Best Thing To Emerge From Sunday’s Debate

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

While Sunday's second debate quickly devolved into a mudslinging match with the candidates providing little, if any, actionable views on how they intend to govern aside from canned talking points, something good has finally emerged from the debate: the following "duet" between Hillary and Donald, a rendition of “(I’ve Had) The Time Of My Life."

A Spec of Sand on a Long Beach


A Spec of Sand on a Long Beach

Courtesy of 

Over the weekend I listened to Russ Roberts’ interview with Jason Zweig, who made an excellent observation of how vast the financial markets are and how little time investors spend thinking about this:

I think if there’s one overriding theme to the book, one of the things I’ve tried to get across in "The Devil’s Financial Dictionary" is the importance of just being humble before the financial markets. I mean people are humble before nature -- think about when you stand on the rim of the Grand Canyon, or you walk to the edge of the ocean, or you look up at the stars — people feel this sense of awe and wonder and smallness because we are small when we compare ourselves with the natural world. Well individuals, and for that matter, policy makers, are small when we compare ourselves with the financial markets, but most of us forget that.  And we think, oh we have better data or we know something the other guy doesn’t, and in fact we should have that same sense of just being a spec of sand on a long beach and just remember that whatever we know is very small compared to the totality of the information that’s out there.

According to Dimensional Funds, in 2015 the average number of daily global equity trades was 98.6 million, or $447.3 billion a day. Jack Bogle estimates in Clash of the Financial Cultures that we spend $33 trillion on trading a year, or 220% of U.S. GDP. These numbers are so big that they become almost meaningless. Let me attempt to put its vastness into terms we can wrap our head around.

If $447.3 billion in dollar bills were stacked on top of one another and then laid on their side, they would more than wrap around the world. If they were laid out tip-to-tip, they could make the 478,000 mile round-trip to the moon 90 times. $447.3 billion in one dollar bills weighs 985 million pounds, or 3,285 blue whales. Keep in mind, this is all in a day’s work.

So really, how can one stand on the rim of the financial Grand Canyon and not be humble?


Econ Talk

The Devil’s Financial Dictionary

Clash of the Cultures

Pictures via Pixabay. 

A military view on climate change: It’s eroding our national security and we should prepare for it


A military view on climate change: It's eroding our national security and we should prepare for it

By David Titley, Pennsylvania State University, The Conversation

In this presidential election year we have heard much about some issues, such as immigration and trade, and less about others. For example, climate change was discussed for an estimated 82 seconds in the first presidential debate last week, and for just 37 minutes in all presidential and vice presidential debates since the year 2000.

Many observers think climate change deserves more attention. They might be surprised to learn that U.S. military leaders and defense planners agree. The armed forces have been studying climate change for years from a perspective that rarely is mentioned in the news: as a national security threat. And they agree that it poses serious risks.

I spent 32 years as a meteorologist in the U.S. Navy, where I initiated and led the Navy’s Task Force on Climate Change. Here is how military planners see this issue: We know that the climate is changing, we know why it’s changing and we understand that change will have large impacts on our national security. Yet as a nation we still only begrudgingly take precautions.

The Obama administration recently announced several actions that create a framework for addressing climate-driven security threats. But much of the hard work lies ahead – assuming that our next president understands the risks and chooses to act on them.

Climate-related disruptions

Climate change affects our security in two ways. First, it causes stresses such as water shortages and crop failures, which can exacerbate or inflame existing tensions within or between states. These problems can lead to state failure, uncontrolled migration and ungoverned spaces.

On Sept. 21 the National Intelligence Council issued its most recent report on implications of climate change for U.S. national security. This document represents the U.S. intelligence community’s strategic-level view. It does not come from the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change, politicians of either party or an advocacy group, but from nonpartisan, senior U.S. intelligence professionals.

The NIC report emphasizes that the problem is not simply climate change, but the interaction of climate with other large-scale…
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The Overlords of Finance


The Overlords of Finance

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Outside the Box

We keep having to find inventive new ways to describe the ever more extreme antics of our central bankers. In today’s OTB, good friend Danielle DiMartino Booth draws an interesting historical parallel in a valiant attempt to place post-Great Recession central bank activity in a comprehensible context.

She takes us back to the 20th-century era of World Wars and draws upon the thinking of Liaquat Ahamed, whose seminal work The Lords of Finance is said to have been inspired by that unforgettable 1999 Time magazine cover story titled “The Committee to Save the World” – you know, the one that splashed the lovely mugs of Alan Greenspan, Robert Rubin, and Larry Summers up there, grinning like the Cheshire Cat (well, except for Larry, that is).

Ahamed’s treatise, says Danielle, is “a study [of] the perils of devaluing stores of value by force, the dangers of runaway debts, and the menace of monetary myopia.”

Franklin Roosevelt devalued the Depression-weighted US dollar by forcing up the price of gold. Germany’s inability to pay its World War I debts set off an explosive chain of defaults among US allies, compelling the US to effectively bail out Germany’s debt. And the stubborn orthodoxy of Depression-era central bankers led them into competitive interest rate rises that would let their countries to hold onto their dwindling gold supplies, even though the floundering global economy desperately needed lower interest rates.

But today, says Danielle,

If anything, the power of the kings and queens running the world’s central banks has become even more concentrated. In a reversal of economic fortunes, today’s economy is in desperate need of higher rather than lower interest rates, of a normalization of policy to put a floor under the bloodletting in pensions, insurance companies and among retirees worldwide.

And yet, the powers that be insist they know that better than the unwashed and uneducated masses that suffer at the hands of their misguided policies. Of course the benefits of negative interest rates outweigh the costs. And whose business is it anyway if central bankers impinge on the ability of capital to determine the value of a given entity?…

That brings

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Federal Repression System


Robert Burns. Source: Wikipedia.

Federal Repression System

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

“However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.”

– Winston Churchill

And from “To a Mouse, on Turning Her Up in Her Nest with the Plough”:

Scottish version:

But Mousie, thou art no thy-lane,
In proving foresight may be vain:
The best-laid schemes o' Mice an' Men
Gang aft agley,
An' lea'e us nought but grief an' pain,
For promis'd joy!

English translation:

But little Mouse, you are not alone,
In proving foresight may be vain:
The best laid schemes of Mice and Men
Go often askew,
And leave us nothing but grief and pain,
For promised joy!

– Robert Burns, 1785

The Federal Open Market Committee, to almost no one’s surprise, did absolutely nothing at its last meeting other than say that maybe, if the data allow, they will raise rates in December. My cynical view on their dithering will be detailed below. And of course, the Bank of Japan met and decided that maybe they had gone a bridge too far; and rather than lowering already negative rates when the yield curve was flat out to 40 years, they decided to see if they could create a fulcrum around the 10-year Japanese bond at zero. So far, the move has not been a rousing success.

This is partially because their banks are bleeding cash and screaming at them, and they have got to figure out some way to walk back what is becoming a very destructive program. When you look at what low rates have done to the Japanese economy and Japanese retirees, Kuroda-san’s coming to Jackson Hole and declaring that negative rates have been a success demonstrated a fair amount of chutzpah. But then he supplied only a small helping of the staggering amount of hubris displayed at Jackson Hole by central bankers from all over the world, who were celebrating the success of the most repressive monetary policy conditions in the history of mankind. The IMF, the BIS, and…
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Black Swans: 9 Recent Events That Changed Finance Forever

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Almost every market participant out there has at least one horrific war story on a crash that profoundly affected their portfolio or world view.

For example, one unnamed stock broker I know had himself and his clients in a soaring gold stock called Bre-X in 1997. There was way less connectivity at this time, and this person was on a trip to Vegas for some sun and fun. Staying at Caesar’s Palace, he went out for a short while as the stock was trading near its highs of $286.50 per share.

When he got back to the hotel, he found out that news had already spread quickly: during a due diligence test, mining company Freeport had twinned seven drill holes, finding not even a trace of economic gold. The deposit was not real, and panic swept the market. His hotel phone had been ringing off the hook for three hours but he missed all the calls. Shares plummeted 83% that day, but he was already too late to get out of the stock.

It’s easy to rationalize the series of events that led to the fall of Bre-X in hindsight, but as Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardin notes, at the time many traders and experts like this broker were caught by surprise. A company worth around $4.5 billion basically went to zero almost overnight as its claim of 70 million ounces of gold vanished into thin air. That’s a “black swan”, and this one in particular changed the mining and finance industries forever.


The following infographic comes to us from Call Levels, and it highlights nine other recent “black swan” events that will have a lasting impact on how investors approach markets. These events range from the Asian financial crisis of 1997 to the more recent Brexit panic that occurred in June 2016.

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist



Ariel Appreciation Fund 3Q 2016 Commentary

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Ariel Appreciation Fund commentary for the third quarter ended September 30, 2016.

H/T Dataroma

Equity markets shook off the malaise that took hold at the end of the second quarter—remember Brexit?—to post a strong quarter all around. Returns were especially good in domestic small caps and international stocks. While the S&P 500 Index advanced +3.85%; the Russell 2000 Index jumped +9.05%; and the MSCI EAFE Index rose +6.43%. The third quarter was the best period for the MSCI EAFE Index in nearly three years, and the best for the Russell 2000 Index in almost two years. We do not believe much changed to drive this result: we simply think people recognized the economy is sound and interest rates remain low—a good en...

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Zero Hedge

Dilbert Creator Adams Exposes The Real Bully Party

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Dilbert Creator Scott Adams,

I’ve been trying to figure out what common trait binds Clinton supporters together. As far as I can tell, the most unifying characteristic is a willingness to bully in all its forms.

  • If you have a Trump sign in your lawn, they will steal it.
  • If you have a Trump bumper sticker, they will deface your car.
  • if you speak of Trump at work you could get fired.
  • On social media, almost every message I get from...

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Phil's Favorites

The Secrets Of Self-Employment: Overhead And Capital Accumulation

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds

So how can someone earning $15 an hour as an employee get ahead? The short answer is: they can't. One worker earning $15/hour will struggle to get ahead, which I define as building capital that generates an income stream.

A family with four adults working full-time at $15 an hour with benefits can get ahead; together, they're earning $60/hour plus another $40/hour in benefits. Assuming they live under one roof and live frugally, their combined earnings of $100/hour will enable investing in income-producing capital.

There is another path to getting ahead: self-employment. Working for yourself isn't for everyone, but it does provide two avenues of wealth-building that are not available to employees: overhead and capital accumulation.


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Kimble Charting Solutions

U.S. Dollar Rally: A tale of two chart patterns

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

This article was originally written for See It Market.

The U.S. Dollar Index has been trading in a wide consolidation pattern over the last 18 months or so.  But after the recent U.S. Dollar rally, that consolidation has formed two distinct chart patterns.

And as you may have guessed… one is bullish while the other is bearish.



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Market News

Breaking News And Best Of The Web

Courtesy of John Rubino.

Good news from Europe and the US sends stocks higher. The dollar is rising and so is inflation. Corporate debt and earnings becoming major near-term risks. China’s mortgage bubble is the biggest ever. US auto sales start to fall. Major cyber attack hits US east coast. Clinton way up in polls after final debate.  

Best Of The Web

Bill Fleckenstein interview – King World News

Ungovernability – Automatic Earth

Gold’s secular bull market continues – 50 am...

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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Sunday, 10 April 2016, 01:58:50 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: Pay attention : www.thefelderrepo...

Date Found: Monday, 11 April 2016, 03:52:28 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: RTT: Who owns the SP500?

Date Found: Monday, 11 April 2016, 03:53:00 PM...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of October 24th,2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Members' Corner

World Series 2016

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

The good news... Waiting since 1945, after 71 years, the Chicago Cubs have a chance to win their first WS since 1908.  The bad news... The Cubs face an Indian's team that has been waiting since 1948 to win a WS and last appeared in 1997.

CLE swept BOS, and took out TOR who had swept TEX, and has only lost ONE post season game.  That being Game 4 ALCS at TO, yet, during that series, no Indians starting pitcher made it through more than six innings. 

In fact, Trevor Bauer, only lasted two outs during his one start, leaving Merritt and the pen to bear the burden of over eight innings of baseball.  Mid range reliever Merritt notched a victory in that game with ERA 1.80; WHIP 0.60 with 5 IP. 

What does all that tell you? Oddly enough, without Carr...

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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...

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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.


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Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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PSW is more than just stock talk!


We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more! features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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