Archive for the ‘IRA Strategies’ Category

Illusion of Choice

From Jean-Luc:

Looks like we are down to about 10 companies for our consumer goods:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/illusion-of-choice-consumer-brands/

Just like banks, airlines and cable companies! 

The Illusion of Choice in Consumer Brands

The Illusion of Choice in Consumer Brands

Explore the full-size version of the above graphic in all its glory.

If today’s infographic looks familiar, that’s because it originates from a well-circulated report that Oxfam International puts together to show consolidation in the mass consumer goods industry.

We are sharing it because we believe it is important for you to be aware of who is supplying the different brands and goods served on your dinner table.

More >





No wonder Saudis are selling as much as they can!

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

We are getting much more energy efficient – no wonder Saudis are selling as much as they can! Who wants to be the one with trillions of dollars of oil in the ground unwanted:

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/07/the-amount-of-energy-needed-to-run-the-worlds-economy-is-decreasing-on-average/#p3





Thoughts on Brexit

I have mixed feelings about Brexit today. Clearly the European institution need reforming. The addition of so many countries in the last 20 years has created a top heavy administration. The Euro adds more complexities to the equation as the ECB policies cannot fit every country's problem. On the other hand, a unified Europe has advantages as well – some countries have benefited from the integration.

For Britain, it's hard to say what the final price will be. My guess is that Scotland might now vote for independence as they supported staying in Europe overwhelmingly. Northern Ireland might be tempted to leave as well so possibly RIP UK in the long run. I was talking to some French people and they were saying that now there might be no incentive for France to stop immigrants from crossing over to the UK like they do now and simply allow for travel there and let the UK deal with them. The end game is not clear to anyone at the moment. 

What bothers me the most was that some of the undertone of the Leave campaign had a certain xenophobic message that leaves a bad taste. I understand the frustration of people with the European structure but that undertone is what leads to the killing of the MP we saw there. Most of the congratulation messages coming in right now in Europe come from far right parties that also have that xenophobic undertone.  

BTW, Trump seemed to be happy, but I wonder how he will feel if Scotland leaves the UK and applies to the EU again. His golf courses will be in the EU again!





About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other – it was the only low they hadn't sunk to. Rubio and Trump were actually trading penis comments!  Meanwhile, I almost fell off my chair when he talked about other people using "shameful" language. Bill Maher nailed it this weekend.

Maher's video is pretty hilarious, but I can't embed it. Click on: Bill Maher Delivers Profane State of the Union : Lick My Balls, No New Taxes!

"Something has certainly changed in American political discourse." ~ Bill Maher. 





An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since then, oil has hit a multi-year low at around $42.50 and is now approaching $60, still well below its highs of 2014 but probably closer to a breakeven price for American shale producers. In this post I want to see what ETF would have profited best from that rebound and also which one would have fared worse. Let's look at a couple of performance charts. First, the standard oil proxies based on the futures:

Oil (red) is up 40% since March 17 but what is interesting is how the pure oil ETFs are tracking that move. USO (blue) which is not leveraged is not tracking very well. In fact, it's up only about 27% or about 2/3 of the oil move. As expected, SCO (pink) is down, but clearly, the leveraging is not the 2x that you would expect as it's only down a bit less than 40%. And UCO (green), while the clear winner here, is only up 57% which is lower than the advertised 2x leverage factor. Once again, these future based ETF are victims of some decay.

Let's look at some ETFs not based on oil futures but who should benefit from an oil price rebound. In the next performance chart, we'll look at OIH and XLE. 

It's not surprising that there should be a lag between the time oil prices start…
continue reading


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IRA Portfolio update #4

Welcome to the fouth update of the IRA Virtual Portfolio.  First I am going to summarize the current state of the Portfolio then I will get into all the activity we had during September expiration.  

Profit and Loss – Net of closed positions the portfolio is up a total of $769

Market Commentary – Last expiration I said, "I would like to put a total of $20,000 to work by the end of SEP expiration. If the VIX pops up to around 20 I plan to put about $50,000 total to work." The market didn't quite reach the goal but I did manage to deploy $15,000 of buying power. I still feel the market is too high and expect a correction during October. If the vix pops up to around 20 I still plan to put about $50,000 to work. If a correction doesn't happen I still plan to have a total of $25,000 in buying power put to work by October expiration.  Now on to the activity.

AEM – Agnico Eagle Mines Limited;

  • On 9/10/2013 I sold 1x OCT 27.5 PUT for a credit of $150 to initiate a position.(member chat link)

BTU – Peabody Energy Corporation;

  • The SEP 19 CALL I sold expired worthless.

VLO – Valero Energy Corporation;

  • On 9/20/2013 I rolled the SEP 35 PUT to the OCT 34 PUT for a credit of $44.(member chat link)

FCX – Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc;

  • On 9/10/2013 I bought back the SEP 29 PUT for a debit of $5.(member chat link)

X – United States Steel Corp;

  • On 9/10/2013 I bought back the 2x SEP 17 PUT for a debit of $10 total ($5 for each PUT).(member chat link)

Here is a link to the spreadsheet we use to track the portfolio. LINK





IRA Portfolio update #3


Welcome to the third update of the IRA Portfolio. First, I am going to summarize the current state of the IRA Portfolio then I will get into all the activity we had during August expiration. In addition, I want to amend something I said when this portfolio began. I said we expect close to 20% annual returns. However, our returns are greatly dependent on the VIX. The higher the VIX the more our cost basis can be reduced on order entry. Unfortunately the VIX has been hovering around 14 which is historically low. So I am not going to make any predictions about the returns of this portfolio. Lets just do the best we can and see where we are after a year.

Profit and Loss – Net of closed positions we are up a grand total of $384.

Market Commentary – I still feel that the market is much to high and volatility much to low to commit a large portion of the portfolio. However, I do feel that our current exposure of about $5600 is way to low for a 100k portfolio. To remedy that I am going to be looking for places to put some additional money to work. I would like to put a total of $20,000 to work by the end of SEP expiration.  If the VIX pops up to around 20 I plan to put about $50,000 total to work.

ABX – Barrick Gold Corporation

  • On 8/9/2013 we closed out the AUG 16/11 PUT spread we sold. We closed it for a debit of $8.(member chat link)

AAPL – Apple Inc

  • On 8/2/2013 we closed out the AUG 420/370 PUT spread we sold. We closed it for a debit of $5.(member chat link)

BTU – Peabody Energy Corporation

  • On 6/9/2013 we closed out the AUG 16/11 PUT spread we sold. We closed it for a debit of $3.(member chat link)

FCX – Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc

  • On 8/6/2013 we decided to add some FCX to the portfolio by selling the SEP 29/24 PUT spread for a credit of $88.(member chat link)

VLO – Valero Energy Corporation
continue reading





IRA Portfolio update #2


Welcome to the second update of the IRA Portfolio. First, I am going to summarize the current state of the IRA Portfolio then I will get into the specifics of the specifics of all the activity we had since the last article.

Net of closed positions we are up a grand total of $11. However, our open positions in AAPL, CLF, ABX, and SLW are all profitable and waiting to be closed. Below is the summary of our activity for the last month.

ABX – Barrick Gold Corporation

  • No new trades since the last article.  With ABX trading at 17.82 the AUG 16/11 Put Spread we sold is looking safe.

AAPL – Apple Inc

  • On 7/19 we rolled the JUL 430/380 Put Spread to the AUG 420/370 Put Spread for a credit of $72. (member chat link)

BTU – Peabody Energy Corporation

  • On 7/19 BTU was trading at $16.45 so we had to adjust the 20/15 Put Spread we sold. So, we bought back the short 20 put for a debit of $355 and bought 100 shares of BTU for a debit of $1670. Next we sold 1x SEP 19 CALL for a credit of $38 and sold 1x AUG 16/11 PUT Spread for a credit of $66. This leaves us with 100 shares of BTU at a cost basis of $18.09 per share. (member chat link)

CLF – Cliffs Natural Resources Inc

  • On 7/19 CLF was trading at $17.71 so we had to adjust the 20/15 Put Spread we sold. So, we bought back the short 20 put for a debit of $232 and bought 100 shares of CLF for a debit of $1771. Next we sold the AUG 17/12 PUT Spread for a credit of $85 and sold the AUG $19 CALL for a credit of $60. This leaves us with 100 shares of CLF at a cost basis of $17.58

X – United States Steel Corporation

  • The JUL 17/12 Put Spread we sold expired worthless.

SLW – Silver Wheaton Corporation

  • The AUG 19/14 Put Spread we sold is almost worthless so we will look to close it early next week.

Below is the state of the IRA Portfolio as of 7/28/2013.





IRA Portfolio update #1

Reminder: Craigzooka is available to chat with Members regarding his virtual portfolio performance, comments are found below each post.

Welcome to the first update on the IRA Portfolio. The plan, from here on out, is to do a recap of the portfolio every options expiration. In this recap we will do a review of all the activity in the portfolio for the last month and talk about our plans for the next expiration. We had a decent amount of activity over the last month, so lets get to it!

ABX – Barrick Gold Corporation

  • On 5/21/2013 in, member chat, we said, "ABX has gotten to cheap and the premiums to juicy to ignore any longer. So our first position in the NEW IRA portfolio will be ABX. We are scaling into a $10,000 position so for the first round we will sell a put spread and hope we have a chance to buy the shares even cheaper. The 19-14 put spread in JUN is trading for $.80 and the 19-14 in JUL is trading for $1.09. I don't think the extra $.29 is worth missing the opportunity to potentially sell JUN for $.80 and then JUL for another $.80. So our first trade will be selling 1x the 19-14 put spread in JUN for a $80 credit."
  • Our first trade went spectacularly and on 6/6/2013 the short 19 PUT was trading at $13. There was no reason to be greedy and risk the $67 profit to make $13 more so we bought back our short 19 PUT for $13 and booked our first winner ( member chat link ).
  • When we first initiated the trade we were ready and willing to buy more if it got cheaper. By 6/21/2013 ABX had gotten way cheaper so we initiated another position. We sold the 16/11 PUT Spread for a credit of $101. ( member chat link )

HPQ – Hewlett-Packard Company

  • On 5/21/2013, in member chat, we said, "Adding an opening position in HPQ as well. Selling the 21-16 Put spread in JUN for a credit of $104. Once again, we really hope they crash and we will get to pick them up cheaper, but we might as well sell some premium while we wait for that to happen."
  • Two days later HPQ popped after earnings and we were able to close


continue reading





The IRA portfolio

Reminder: Craigzooka is available to chat with Members regarding his virtual portfolio performance, comments are found below each post.

By Craigzooka

I am going to share with you how I manage my IRA and the power of reducing your cost basis.  My goal each year is a 20% return in my IRA.  Sometimes I make it and sometimes I don't, but I believe that all of my success is due to reducing my cost basis.  To illustrate the power of reducing your cost basis here are some trades we did last year.  These trades are taken from an educational portfolio we ran in a paper-trading account for a little more than a year.

  • We bought RIG on 5/15/2012 for $44.13, sold it on 1/18/2013 for $46 but booked a profit of $1,154.
  • We bought MT on 1/4/2012 for $19.24, sold it on 12/21/2012 for $15 but booked a profit of $454.
  • We bought CHK on 1/27/2012 for $21.93, sold it on 10/19/2012 for $18 but booked a profit of $800.50.

We were able to lower our cost basis so much by selling calls and occasionally buying additional stock to lower the basis.  We did this mechanically without thinking about market conditions.  I think we can do better.  For the foreseeable future I am going to paper trade a 100k portfolio using IRA margin rules and track it using a TOS paper trading account.  I am going to detail the strategy below.

Position Sizing 

We don't want one single position to take down the whole portfolio so we are going to risk a maximum of 10k to each stock.  Unless there is a once in a lifetime opportunity, we will not spend more than 10k of cash on any one stock.

Position Entry

We hope to eventually own stock but while we wait lets have someone pay us not to own it.  We will enter positions by selling a put spread.  Should we be put the stock we want it to take up less than 5k of cash, so don't sell too many put spreads to begin with!

Managing Put Spreads

So a put spread we sold is now in the money.  Fantastic!  We wanted to buy the stock cheaper and now they are giving us a chance.  So let them put us the shares and we will begin selling calls…
continue reading





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Meditation May Be the Key to Becoming a Better Investor

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Every once in a while I write about topics that seemingly have nothing to do with investing, but for those that are able to connect the dots, they will actually find great value in these seemingly unrelated topics to wealth building and preservation strategies. As it is the weekend, I'm releasing an article that we originally posted on our website  about the topic of meditation and investing on 19 August 2016. Again, to first read our articles when we release them, subscribe to our article fee...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Iron Ore Market Seen Collapsing Below Last Year’s Nadir: Chart (Bloomberg)

The iron ore market is about to swoon, according to Westpac Banking Corp., which forecasts benchmark prices may sink below last year’s nadir of $38.30 a metric ton. 

Fear! M1 Money Multiplier Remains Below 1.0 Since End Of Great Recession (And Financial Crisis) (Confounded Interest)

The M1 Money Multiplier is the ratio of M1* to the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base and it has been below 1.0 since June 2...



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Phil's Favorites

One Million Market Beaters

Wow. If you're planning to beat the market by being an exceptional stock picker, this article is a MUST READ.

One Million Market Beaters

Courtesy of Michael Batnick, The Irrelevant Investor

  • Uncertainty remains, but Florida is in the cross hairs.
  • What to expect today after tornado outbreak.
  • Why we’re watching Gaston closely now.

These headlines were pulled from a few articles today at weather.com. You could seamlessly replace Florida, tornado, and Gaston with a stock be...



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ValueWalk

IMF knew the euro had serious flaws, Sacrificed Greece

By Mauldin Economics. Originally published at ValueWalk.

BY JOHN MAULDIN

There’s a new chapter in the ongoing tale of IMF incompetence. Take a look at this UK Telegraph headline that recently caught my eye.

The love affair was no surprise. Nor was the fact that the IMF had taken part in the immolation of Greece. No, the surprise was that the IMF would publicly disclose the extent of incompetence and massive rule breaking that had taken place.

The Ambrose Evans-Pritchard byline told me this would be a good story. Here’s his lead:

The International Monetary Fund’s top staff misled their own board, made a series of calamitous misjudgments in Greece, became euphoric cheerleade...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: A Modest Loss Follows the Jackson Hole Drama

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

This morning's Second Estimate of Q2 GDP at 1.1% was a ho-hum event in advance of Fed Chair Yellen speech at Jackson Hole. And indeed the intraday range volatility of today's session was at the 70th percentile of the 165 market days of 2016 and the widest in 37 sessions. The S&P 500 opened higher, rallied with the opening of her speech, and then sold off sharply during with Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer's suggestion that a couple of rate hikes this year were possible. The index bounced back later in the afternoon to its -0.16% Friday close. The index is down 0.68% for the week.

The yield on the 10-year note closed at at 1.62%, up four basis points from the previous close.

Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.

...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Basic Materials attempting breakout says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Basic Materials stocks can often times give a decent snap shot of how an economy is doing from a growth or lack of perspective. Below looks at Basic Materials ETF (IYM) over the past decade.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

IYM remains inside of an upward sloping mult-year rising channel (1), since 2009. It hit the bottom of this channel earlier this year and has bounce off support. Currently IYM is testing f...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 22nd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust

 

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust 

By  at Bloomberg

Excerpt:

Stefan Thomas, who introduced millions of people to bitcoin, has had a change of heart.

Blockchain, the ledger software that makes the digital currency possible...



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Mapping The Market

Illusion of Choice

From Jean-Luc:

Looks like we are down to about 10 companies for our consumer goods:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/illusion-of-choice-consumer-brands/

Just like banks, airlines and cable companies! 

The Illusion of Choice in Consumer Brands

Explore the full-size version of the above graphic in all its glory.

If today’s infographic looks familiar, that’s because it originates from a well-circulated report that Oxfam International puts together to show consolidation i...



more from M.T.M.

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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