Archive for the ‘Permissions’ Category

The Recognition Of China’s NPLs Has Begun: A Chinese Bad Loan Is Quietly Trying Find A U.S. Buyer

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

After repeated warnings about China’s soaring non-performing loans on this site (here, here and here), which have underscroed the basis of Kyle Bass’ “big trade for 2016″, namely shorting China’s currency in the bet it will have to massively devalue in order to address its incipient default cycle, virtually everyone is aware that China has a big Non-Performing Loan problem, a problem whose size we first quantified as much as $3 trillion, or the same amount as all of China’s FX reserves.

However, very few know that while the rest of the world is assuming that China will simply sit there and hold in its imploding NPLs which could well rip it apart from the inside in a massive wave of defaults, some of these bad loans have quietly found their way to the US, where they hope to find a buyer courtesy of the DebtX platform.

The offering:

DebtX is pleased to announce the sale of a RMB 556 million non-performing loan relationship. The offering includes two non-performing loans secured by real estate in Southern China. The collateral includes a petrochemical wharf and an office building that serves one of China’s largest petroleum storage houses, as well as land use rights and additional business assets of the borrowing entities. The loans have strong loan to values, an in-place lease through 2025, and a full guaranty.

The details:

So, to summarize, a Chinese loan worth RMB556 billion collateralized by RMB1.2 trillion in the form of a petrochemical wharf, or a paltry 46% LTV, and which has a tiny cost of capital of 4.5%, is not only no longer performing in China, but is hoping to find a buyer in the U.S.

Incidentally, this is what a typical Sinopec oil wharf looks like:

One can’t help but wonder how many trilions (in US dollars) of assets are about to be wiped out when the NPL wave is finally recognized, and more to the point, since Chinese bad loans are already quietly trying to find a buyer in “long investment horizon” hands, does this mean that the trillions (in US dollars) in NPLs are about to finally flood the mainland?

To all those who miss this opportunity to own a piece of Chinese “assets”, fear not – many more such NPLs are rapidly coming your way.





The Hidden Agenda Behind Saudi Arabia’s Market Share Strategy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Dalan McEndree via OilPrice.com,

Do the Saudis have an oil market strategy beyond pumping crude to defend their market share? Are they indifferent to which countries’ oil industries survive? Or, alternatively, are they targeting specific global competitors and specific national markets? Did they start with a particular strategy in November 2014 when Saudi Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Ali al-Naimi announced the new market share policy at the OPEC meeting in Vienna and are they sticking with it, or has their strategy evolved with the evolution of the global markets since?

And, of course, what does the Saudi strategy beyond pumping crude portend for the Saudi approach to some OPEC members’ calls for coordinated production cuts within OPEC and with Russia?

Conventional Wisdom

Conventional wisdom has it that the Saudis are focused primarily on crushing the U.S. shale industry. In this view, the Saudis blame the U.S. for the supply-demand imbalance that began to make itself felt in 2014. U.S. production data seems to support this. Between 2009 and 2014, U.S. crude and NGLs output increased nearly 4 million barrels per day, while Saudi Arabia’s increased only 1.64 million barrels per day, Canada’s 1.06 million, Iraq’s 0.9 million, and Russia’s 0.7 million (Saudi data doesn’t include NGLs).

In addition, the Saudis, among many others, believed that U.S. shale would be the most vulnerable to Saudi strategy, given relatively high production costs compared to Saudi production costs and shale’s rapid decline rates and the need therefore repeatedly to reinvest in new wells to maintain output.

Yet, if the Saudis were focused on the U.S., their efforts have been unsuccessful, at least in 2015. As the table below shows, U.S. output growth in 2015 outstripped Saudi output growth and the growth of output from other major producers in absolute terms. In addition, many observers also came to believe that U.S. shale production will recover more quickly than production in traditional plays once markets balance due to its unique accelerated production cycle and that this quick recovery will limit price increases when markets balance.

Is the U.S. Really the Primary Target?

The above considerations imply the Saudis—if indeed they primarily were targeting U.S. shale—embarked on a self-defeating campaign in November 2014 that could at best deliver a Pyrrhic victory and permanent revenues losses…
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“Exceptional” America Is Number 1 Again

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

…but this is a list you do not want to be at the top of…

As The Burning Platform's Jim Quinn so eloquently exclaims…

Thank God for the Department of Education and Common Core.  

No child is being left behind in our quest for idiocy.

I’m sure paying union teachers more money will solve our problems.

Free college for morons who can’t add 2 + 2 will be the answer.

We're gonna need moar free stuff.





The Complete Idiot’s Guide To Being Right About Donald Trump

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

By Eddie Zipperer, originally published in The Hill

The complete idiot's guide to being right about Donald Trump

If you operate under the assumption that helium is heavier than the air around you, you're going to lose your balloon. If you're smart, you won't lose many balloons before you change your assumption. If you don't change your assumption, you're going to keep losing balloons and start to look pretty stupid in the process.

But it looks like you can't teach old pundits new paradigms. After presidential candidate Donald Trump finished in second in the Iowa Republican caucus, the media went straight to work picking out a coffin for his campaign, battling it out to see who could write the most definitive obituary. After months of being wrong about Trump, something finally happened to make them look right: All the Iowa polls were wrong — Trump lost! Sure, he scored more Iowa votes than anyone ever — excepting Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas), who won Iowa — but he lost. Trump is a loser and this proves it.

It's hard to blame them for trying to spike the ball in Trump's face. You’ve seen it before. Your favorite NFL team is down by 50 points. The team finally gets a first down, and the halfback celebrates like he just won the Super Bowl. Everyone except him just laughs and shakes their head. That's what opinion writers like David Brooks — who wrote a piece declaring that "Donald Trump Isn't Real" in the aftermath of Iowa — looked like last week. CNN ran a piece by Michael D'Antonio headlined "Donald Trump is a loser." And the list of similar sentiments is long.

The pressure of being wrong about Trump over and over was building, so when it appeared they were finally right about something, the release was earthshaking.

Last July, I asked a political science professor at an Ivy League university how Trump would appeal to the electorate in a general election. He told me that "It's a moot point" because "Trump has no chance of surviving the primaries."

I predicted Trump's demise more than once myself since last summer. The difference between me and the rest of them is that I threw out my broken election assumptions and started holding tight to the string of my…
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The Chinese Yuan Countdown Is On

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by SaxoBank's Dembik Christopher via TradingFloor.com,

  • Currency stability is a prerequisite for China's economic transition
  • Defending the yuan is prohibitively expensive – China cannot beat the market
  • Progressive devaluation managed by PBoC is the most probable scenario for 2016
  • Remember that the country is on the capitalism learning curve
  • Exchange rates will inevitably be a key discussion point at Shanghai G20
  • China has moved from being a net importer to a net exporter of capital

Shoring up a currency ad infinitum is impossible. The market always wins.

The undervalued Chinese yuan is nothing but a bad memory. In the context of competitive devaluations throughout the world, the yuan is now significantly overvalued compared to its main counterparts, primarily the dollar and the euro.

If it is to pull off its economic transition, China needs a stable currency, hence its repeated interventions on the exchange markets over the past few months. Over the last year $513 billion was drawn from the foreign exchange reserves without stemming any of the downwards market pressures on the yuan. Over the period is actually lost 5% against the US dollar. This is a significant depreciation for a currency that is used to fluctuating between narrower markers. By way of comparison, the euro, which floats freely on the market, lost almost 6% of its value against the US dollar last year.

The increasingly credible assumption of a devaluation before this summer:

Three possible scenarios exist for the Chinese yuan in 2016:

  • The progressive devaluation managed by the People's Bank of China
  • Continued defence of the currency on the markets
  • New Plaza-type Accord

The progressive devaluation managed by the PBoC is the most probable scenario for 2016. This will not interfere with the process of internationalising the yuan, quite the reverse, since it would make it possible to have an exchange rate that is more in line with Chinese fundamentals. The successive devaluations of last August (1.9% on 11 August, 1.6% on 12 August and 1.1% on 13 August) sent an important signal to the market which will therefore not be taken by complete surprise the next time should China repeat the operation.

If this is to succeed, the PBoC must open communication channels with the market by adopting the methods used by central banks…
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Assad Plans To Retake “All Syria,” Will “Confront” Saudis, Turks If Invaded

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Nine months ago, things weren’t look good for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad.

Four years into his country’s bloody civil war, he found himself fighting a multi-front war against a long list of largely Sunni extremist elements and the government’s forces were stretched thin. The rebels enjoyed the support not only of the US, but of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey. That meant that their resources were essentially unlimited.

It had taken longer than expected, but by summer of last year, the plan that was revealed in a leaked diplomatic cable from 2006 penned by Deputy Chief of Mission in Syria William Roebuck had materialized. The West and its regional allies had managed to engineer a Sunni uprising against the Alawite government by fomenting sectarian discord and within months, Assad would either flee (likely to Russia) or end up like Gaddafi – executed by an angry mob.

Russia’s intervention changed all that by giving Hezbollah an advanced air force to back ground offensives and now, four months since Russia first begun flying combat missions from Latakia, Assad is poised to recapture Aleppo, securing his grip on the country’s main urban centers.

Assad has given several interviews since the end of last summer. We’ve documented most of them here. In September for instance, he had the following advice for the West, which suddenly became acutely aware of the “problem” in Syria when the indelible image of three-year-old Aylan Kurdi drowned on a Turkish beach was plastered all over the nightly news: “If you are worried about them, stop supporting terrorists. That’s what we think regarding the crisis. This is the core of the whole issue of refugees.”

Then, in the wake of the Paris attacks, Assad condemned the assaults as “savage” but reminded the media that “what France suffered from terror is what the Syrian people have been enduring for over five years.” “We said, don’t take what is happening in Syria lightly. Unfortunately, European officials did not listen,” he added.

Then, in December, Assad invited Die Presse to Damascus for a sweeping interview in which the President described the country’s infrastructure as “pretty much destroyed” and blamed Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar for turning Syria into a “hotbed for terrorists.”

Now, with Iran and Russia set
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Americans Have Never Been Fatter: Obesity Rate Rises To Highest Level On Record

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Americans are fat. And they’re getting fatter all the time.

It was just last month when we showed you a series of graphics that demonstrated how it came to this. In short, average calories available to Americans jumped 25 percent to 2500, between 1970 and 2010. And it wasn’t because the US added a fourth meal to the day.

It was all added fats and grains (which include oils and fats in processed foods and flour) which used to make up 37% of America’s diet, but now comprise something like 46%. The biggest contributor to the trend was cost. The increasingly more caloric foods have become progressively cheaper which means lower and middle class people are more inclined to eat them, leading directly to a worsening obesity epidemic.

As we noted back in October, America’s obesity problem has resulted in a rather shocking development researchers uncovered when they analyzed data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey: “This generation of Americans is the first that will have a shorter life expectancy than the previous generation, and obesity is one of the biggest contributors to this shortened life expectancy because it is driving a lot of chronic health conditions.”

Against this rather disconcerting backdrop we present new numbers from Gallup which show that America’s obesity rate climbed to a record high of 28% in 2015

That’s right, America. A third of you are grossly overweight. As it turns out, whites have seen the sharpest uptick, with obesity rates climbing 2.8% since 2008. 

“In addition to the 28.0% who are obese, another 35.6% of adults are classified as overweight, with 34.6% normal weight and 1.8% underweight, as reported in 2015,” Gallup goes on to report, before noting that the incidence of diabetes has trended upwards as well. Here’s more: 

These results are based on more than 175,000 interviews conducted each year from 2013 to 2015 and more than 350,000 interviews conducted each year from 2008 to 2012 as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. Unlike some government estimates of obesity, the Well-Being Index uses respondents’ self-reported height and weight to calculate body mass index (BMI). It does not involve in-home clinical measurements that typically result in higher obesity estimates.

Across racial and ethnic


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THe DeuTSCHe LoCKeR…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

THE DEUTSCHE LOCKER





America’s Corrupt Media – How Reporters Took Direct Orders From Hillary’s Staff

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

It is the job of the Fourth Estate to act as a check and a restraint on the others, to illumine the dark corners of Ministries, to debunk the bureaucrat, to throw often unwelcome light on the measures and motives of our rulers. ‘News’, as Hearst once remarked, ‘is something which somebody wants suppressed: all the rest is advertising’. That job is an essential one and it is bound to be unpopular; indeed, in a democracy, it may be argued that the more unpopular the newspapers are with the politicians the better they are performing their most vital task.

– Brian R. Roberts from a October 29, 1955 article in the London periodical “Time & Tide”

A newspaper is a device for making the ignorant more ignorant and the crazy crazier.

– H.L. Mencken

If you really want to know how weak Hillary Clinton is as a candidate, you merely have to appreciate that the U.S. media essentially acts as her own personal PR firm, yet the public still recognizes her as a dishonest crook. Brace yourself for the following story, it’s huge.

Earlier this week, we learned from Gawker that at least one U.S. reporter traded content in his article for information from Hillary Clinton’s staff while she was Secretary of State. In what is an almost hard to believe exchange, Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic,  agreed to insert specific words and imagery into his article in return for a copy of Hillary’s upcoming speech at the Council on Foreign Relations.

We have the exact exchange thanks to emails released from a 2012 Freedom of Information Act Request (FOIA). Gawker reports:

The emails in question, which were exchanged by Ambinder, then serving as The Atlantic’s politics editor, and Philippe Reines, Clinton’s notoriously combative spokesman and consigliere, turned up thanks to a Freedom of Information Act request we filed in 2012 (and which we are currently suing the State Department over). The same request previously revealed that Politico’s chief White House correspondent, Mike Allen, promised to deliver positive coverage of Chelsea Clinton, and, in a separate exchange, permitted Reines to ghost-write an item about the State Department for Politico’s Playbook newsletter. Ambinder’s emails with Reines demonstrate the same kind of transactional reporting, albeit to a much more legible degree: In them, you can


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The 8 Principles Of The Newer Normal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Is this what we have to look forward to?

1. Ban cash
2. All-digital currency
3. No more crime
4. -10% rates
5. 70% deposit tax
6. 20% “Bail-In” Charge
7. You’re broke
8. Unicorns

Because less (freedom) is more, right?

h/t @RudyHavenstein





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

The Recognition Of China's NPLs Has Begun: A Chinese Bad Loan Is Quietly Trying Find A U.S. Buyer

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

After repeated warnings about China's soaring non-performing loans on this site (here, here and here), which have underscroed the basis of Kyle Bass' "big trade for 2016", namely shorting China's currency in the bet it will have to massively devalue in order to address its incipient default cycle, virtually everyone is aware that China ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Phil's Favorites

Is Anybody NOT Deeper In Debt?

Courtesy of John Rubino.

The New York Federal Reserve just announced that older Americans are carrying more debt than ever before and, believe it or not, spins this as a good thing:

New York Fed Finds Large Increase in Debts Held by Those Over Age 50 (NASDAQ) – Americans in their 50s, 60s and 70s are carrying unprecedented amounts of debt, a shift that reflects both the aging of the baby boomer generation and their greater likelihood of retaining mortgage, auto and student debt at much later ages than previous generations.

The average 65-year-old borrower has 47% more mortgage debt and 29% more auto debt than 65-year-olds had in 2003, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released Friday. ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Big test for those that have been wrong, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

In May of last year, the S&P hit a key level and stopped on a dime. We applied Fibonacci tools to the highs in 2007 and the lows in 2009, to the chart above. The 161% Fibonacci extension level came into play in the 2,150 zone last year and when hit at (1), the markets stopped on a dime.

If your tools or adviser has suggested to be long and strong since May of 2015, that advice has been costly.

Our take, “Free advice that is wrong, is expensive!!!”

Below looks at stock i...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

The Crowded Trade in Bank Stocks Among Oil-Rich Countries (Bloomberg)

When it comes to the selloff in bank stocks, there’s plenty to blame: credit concern, earnings, negative interest rates, and souring sentiment.

Middle income Americans aren't that worried about the choppy stock market (Business Insider)

Many are worried about what the hemorrhaging stock market could mean going forward for the overall e...



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Chart School

Further Losses But No Breakaway

Courtesy of Declan.

The Asian session had set up for big losses, but markets were able to defend against such losses even if finishing with a lower close.

The S&P tagged the January low, but it's hard to see it holding out if there's another challenge on 1,810.


The Nasdaq was able to register a higher close (although below the prior day's close). It probably did enough to negate what is normally a bearish black candlestick, but bulls won't have any confidence until the bearish channel is broken.

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 8th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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ValueWalk

Why Most Investors Fail in the Stock Market

 

Why Most Investors Fail in the Stock Market

Courtesy of ValueWalk, by  

Throughout the past 30 days of wild volatility, here’s what I didn’t do.

Panic. Worry. Sell.

In fact, the best I did was add to a couple of positions yesterday. The world was already in an uncertain state for the past 3+ years. It’s just that with the market rising, we pushed the issue to the back of our  mind and ignored it.

If you read Howard Marks latest memo, ...



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Digital Currencies

2016 Theme #3: The Rise Of Independent (Non-State) Crypto-Currencies

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith at Of Two Minds

A number of systemic, structural forces are intersecting in 2016. One is the rise of non-state, non-central-bank-issued crypto-currencies.

We all know money is created and distributed by governments and central banks. The reason is simple: control the money and you control everything.

The invention of the blockchain and crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin have opened the door to non-state, non-central-bank currencies--money that is global and independent of any state or central bank, or indeed, any bank, as crypto-currencies are structurally peer-to-peer, meaning they don't require a bank to function: people can exchange crypto-currencies to pay for goods and services without a bank acting as a clearinghouse for all these transactions.

This doesn't just open t...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: New Year brings new hope after bulls lose traction to close 2015

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Chart via Finviz

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last year, the S&P 500 large caps closed 2015 essentially flat on a total return basis, while the NASDAQ 100 showed a little better performance at +8.3% and the Russell 2000 small caps fell -5.9%. Overall, stocks disappointed even in the face of modest expectations, especially the small caps as market leadership was mostly limited to a handful of large and mega-cap darlings.

Notably, the full year chart for the S&P 500 looks very much like 2011. It got off to a good start, drifted sideways for...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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