Archive for the ‘Permissions’ Category

Bill Miller On Amazon, Google, Facebook And Bitcoin

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Miller Value Partners’ Bill Miller holds the record for being the only mutual fund manager to beat the market for 15 years in a row. One way he did it is by investing in new technologies that the Wall Street establishment thought were crazy at the time – Amazon, Google, and Facebook among them. His latest “crazy” idea: Bitcoin.


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What makes a great investor? I have interviewed several of this rare breed over my career, including some of the greats of the previous generation: the late Sir John Templeton, Peter Lynch, and Warren Buffett. They share several traits, a passion for investing and research, discipline, healthy skepticism about Wall Street and popular opinion, insatiable curiosity, voracious reading and independent thinking.

Sir John Templeton once said: “It is impossible to produce superior performance unless you do something different.”

One measure of doing something different is known asactive share, discovered by researchers at the Yale School of Management.  Active share is a measure of the percentage of stock holdings in a manager’s portfolio that differs from the benchmark index. The researchers found that mutual fund managers with high active share outperform their benchmark indexes. Specifically the researchers found that funds with an active share of 80% or higher beat their indexes by 2-2.71% before fees and by 1.49-1.59% after fees.

The active share of this week’s guest runs close to 100% most of the time. His portfolio is nothing like the S&P 500’s.

He is legendary value investor, Bill Miller, and the proof is in the pudding.  Miller is still the only mutual fund manager who has beaten…
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Global Markets Shrug As US Government Shutdown Enters Day 3

 

Global Markets Shrug As US Government Shutdown Enters Day 3

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Global stocks and U.S. bond markets on Monday shrugged off day three of the US government shutdown in Washington, although the dollar pulled back as the euro continued its strong start to the year, while U.S. stock index futures dipped less than 0.1% on expectations that the political impasse will not hurt the U.S. economy and that it will be resolved shortly, which may prove to be an overly optimistic outlook.

Here is Bloomberg's quick on what has been a particularly quiet overnight session:

Exceptionally quiet European session due to lack of pertinent economic data or macro events, focus remains on U.S. government shutdown. USD is offered against G-10, DXY remains firmly within 90-91 range established last week. ZAR outperforms after reports that ANC leadership decided Zuma must leave office, albeit without a deadline. Core European equity markets trade flat, energy sector leads gains despite crude futures also trading unchanged, OPEC+ weekend meeting ended with recommendation to keep cuts for whole of 2018. UST curve holds overnight flattening, focus on long-end swap spreads which tighten back from blowout on Friday; Spain outperforms other EGBs after Fitch upgrade. Metals markets grind marginally higher across the board due to move in USD

U.S. Treasury yields, which fell during previous government shutdowns, rose as investors saw limited economic fallout from the standoff in the U.S. capital and instead focused on a global economy motoring ahead. The 10Y yield rose to to its highest level in more than three years on Monday, although it since faded some of the move.

Bunds were steady after weakening with Treasuries on Friday as USD swap spreads snapped wider. Spanish bonds jumped after Fitch upgraded Spain late on Friday: Spanish 10y bond yields open lower by 5bps at 1.39% after Fitch upgrades Spain to A- from BBB+; though flows have been very low so far, traders told Bloomberg. Strategists were split on the timing of the upgrade with many looking for the move later in the year. While there are no direct index implications, there was some expectation that an upgrade to A status would prompt fresh demand for Spanish bonds…
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Cryptos Are Crashing Again…

 

Cryptos Are Crashing Again…

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

From South Korean bank blocks to Bulgarian ponzi scheme shutdowns and a Bali bitcoin crackdown, you can take your pick as to what is driving the sudden plunge in cryptocurrencies this morning. Ethereum is back below $1000, Bitcoin is back to a $10k handle, and Ripple is down 30% from the weekend's highs.

Weakness began around 6amET but really accelerated at around 8am ET…

With Bitcoin and Ethereum breaking key support levels..

The catalyst for the move is uncertain at best with numerous headlines over the weekend:

OneCoin offices were raided and its servers seized in Sofia, Bulgaria, on Jan. 17 and 18, as yet another step in a series of international raids and court cases against the highly-controversial altcoin. Although the servers were shut down, OneCoin currently remains operational.

Bitcoin exchanges are under fire in India, as many of the nation’s top banks have suspended or greatly curtailed functionality on exchange accounts. State Bank of India (SBI), Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Yes Bank have all taken strong action toward crypto exchanges, either closing accounts or severely limiting functionality. The banks cite the risk of dubious transactions, according to local reports.

The biggest Nordic bank sent a memo to all its employees on Monday informing them that they will not be allowed to trade in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Nordea Bank AB will impose the ban from Feb. 28, after the board agreed to take a stand due to the “unregulated nature” of the market, spokeswoman Afroditi Kellberg said by phone. The bank had about 31,500 employees at the end of the third quarter.

Bitcoin is under heavy surveillance on Bali, an island in the Indonesian archipelago, according to local reports. Central Bank officials are seeking to crack down on the use of the cryptocurrency anywhere in the nation.

But we do note that the most recent plunge occurred as Bitcoin broke below its 100-day moving average at $10951…

As we noted yesterday, the Bitcoin futures


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Citi Spots A Very “Odd” Change In The Market

 

Citi Spots A Very "Odd" Change In The Market

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Over the past week, we have highlighted several market indicators which we – and many others – have found surprising – and concerning – about the euphoric risk rally in the new year (including record overbought RSIs, near record stretched retail sentiment, very positive analyst earnings revisions, a record period of time without a 5% correction, and very low pairwise correlations within equity indices).

We can now add one more way in which recent market sessions "have displayed odd cross-asset price action" as Citi's Jeremy Hale writes. 

According to the cross-asset strategist, while the S&P 500 has rallied to new highs, credit spreads have widened slightly of the tights…

… and implied equity vols have also increased.

As Hale adds, "the latter is especially odd and usually only occurs in an equity market dip, at least a small one, and not a rally."

There are other odd observations: as Bank of America pointed out last Friday, while stocks across the world have had a strong start to the year, levitating higher on record bullish sentiment investors have been pulling money out of junk-bond funds on concerns about the impact of higher interest rates.

So what's going on here?  Well, according to Hale, who puts on his "devil’s advocate" hat on, "one could argue that the credit price action is part of a move to the third stage of the 'credit clock' and that the move in VIX makes it a good hedging tool for equity longs. On the former, we would argue that the credit clock has been fleeting in its real-life usability, with the stocks/credit relationship often changing – see more here. And as we have shown. VIX hedges are very costly and historically, absent perfect timing, have shown limited use for hedging equity longs over long periods."

As such, Citi is "monitoring the moves in credit and equity vol as another potentially bearish tactical signal for stocks."





Central Banks: From Coordination To Competition

 

Central Banks: From Coordination To Competition

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

This is one reason why I anticipate "unexpected" disruptions in the global economy in 2018.

The mere mention of "central banks" will likely turn off many readers who understandably have little interest in convoluted policies and arcane mumbo-jumbo, but bear with me for a few paragraphs while I make the case for something to happen in 2018 that will impact us all to some degree.

That something is the decay of the synchronized central bank stimulus policies that have pumped trillions of dollars, yuan, yen and euros into the global financial markets over the past nine years. Here are two charts that depict the "tag team" coordinated approach central banks have deployed: when one CB tapers its stimulus, another ramps up its money-creation/asset-purchases stimulus:

The balance sheets of all the primary central banks added together is astronomical:

This team effort is motivated by self-interest, of course; no one central bank can reflate the entire global economy, and yet that is the only way to reflate each nation/bloc's own economy, given the global connectedness of the modern economy.

But the threads of mutual self-interest are fraying. At this late stage in the credit cycle, the central banks must begin "tapering", i.e. diminishing and then ending their stimulus policies and eventually reducing their balance sheets by selling assets they bought in the stimulus phase (or simply stop replacing bonds they own that mature).

The Federal Reserve was first out of the gate in launching quasi-unlimited bond purchases, and it was the first central bank to cease stimulus (quantitative easing) and raise interest rates. It has now signaled that it will begin selling assets (i.e. stop replacing bonds that mature).

Those currencies/bonds that pay the highest interest (accounting for inflation, of will naturally attract global capital seeking a safe return above zero.

The net effect of this differentiation is that nations/blocs with near-zero yields will experience capital flight as money will flow to higher yields elsewhere.

The coordination of the stimulus phase will give way to nationalist self-interest in the tightening phase.


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IMF Raises Global GDP Outlook To Highest In 7 Years Thanks To Trump Tax Cuts

 

IMF Raises Global GDP Outlook To Highest In 7 Years Thanks To Trump Tax Cuts

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Global growth will accelerate to the fastest pace in seven years as U.S. tax cuts spur businesses to invest, the International Monetary Fund says in its latest quarterly update to its World Economic Outlook.

The IMF raised its forecast for world expansion to 3.9% in 2018 and 2019, up 0.2% for both years from its projection in October. That would be the fastest rate of growth since 2011, when the world was bouncing back from the financial crisis.

It is also worth noting to what the IMF attributed its rebound in optimism: according to the DC-based organization, about half of the IMF’s global upgrade stems from the Republican tax cuts passed in December.

This is how the IMF explained its growing optimism about a global recovery:

Global economic activity continues to firm up. Global output is estimated to have grown by 3.7 percent in 2017, which is 0.1 percentage point faster than projected in the fall and ½ percentage point higher than in 2016. The pickup in growth has been broad based, with notable upside surprises in Europe and Asia. Global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 have been revised upward by 0.2 percentage point to 3.9 percent. The revision reflects increased global growth momentum and the expected impact of the recently approved U.S. tax policy changes.

The U.S. tax policy changes are expected to stimulate activity, with the short-term impact in the United States mostly driven by the investment response to the corporate income tax cuts. The effect on U.S. growth is estimated to be positive through 2020, cumulating to 1.2 percent through that year, with a range of uncertainty around this central scenario. Due to the temporary nature of some of its provisions, the tax policy package is projected to lower growth for a few years from 2022 onwards. The effects of the package on output in the United States and its trading partners contribute about half of the cumulative revision to global growth over 2018–19.

Broken down by region:

  • United States: IMF sees U.S. expansion at 2.7% this year, 0.4% higher than the fund expected in October. Curiously, the IMF predicts the tax plan will


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Rising Treasury Yields Pose Risk for Those Over-Weighted in Stocks

Courtesy of Pam Martens.

Yield on Two-Year Treasury (Green) Versus Yield on 10-Year Treasury (Orange)

Yield on Two-Year Treasury (Green) Versus Yield on 10-Year Treasury (Orange)

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: January 22, 2018

President Donald Trump’s persistence on his Twitter page in touting how well the stock market is doing is distracting investors from a scary, negative indicator for stocks – rising yields on U.S. Treasury securities.

Since September of last year, yields have been on a steady and sharp upward trajectory, reminiscent of standing at the base of a mogul run in Colorado and craning one’s neck toward the summit. The complacency the stock market is showing toward the fierce rise in yields may also turn out to be a dangerous, slippery slope for those heavily weighted in stocks.

On November 9, 2016 the two-year U.S. Treasury Note closed the day with a yield of 0.8942 percent. One year later, on November 9, 2017, it finished its trading session with a yield of 1.64 percent. As of 6:50 a.m. this morning, the yield on the two-year Treasury stands at 2.06 percent – nosebleed territory in terms of its rapid ascent.

Likewise, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Note has moved from a yield of 2.06 percent on November 9, 2016 to 2.65 percent this morning, getting close to the 3 percent level where yield buyers start to pay close attention.



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History In The Making: Amazon’s First Fully-Automated Grocery Store Opens To The Public

 

History In The Making: Amazon's First Fully-Automated Grocery Store Opens To The Public

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After nearly a year of testing – plus a few highly publicized practice runs involving reporters from a handful of influential tech media outlets like the New York Times - Amazon will open its small-format Seattle test store, dubbed “Amazon Go” on Monday.

The store will feature cashier-free checkouts, allowing customers who install the “Amazon Go” app to simply pick up an item and walk out with it. The launch was supposed to happen earlier, but was delayed due to bugs, we pointed out late last year.

Details of the shopping experience provided to the mainstream media sound like something wholly different than what consumers are used to…

The Seattle store, known as Amazon Go, relies on cameras and sensors to track what shoppers remove from the shelves, and what they put back. Cash registers and checkout lines become superfluous – customers are billed after leaving the store using credit cards on file.

For grocers, the store’s opening heralds another potential disruption at the hands of the world’s largest online retailer, which bought high-end supermarket chain Whole Foods Market last year for $13.7 billion. Long lines can deter shoppers, so a company that figures out how to eradicate wait times will have an advantage.

Amazon did not discuss if or when it will add more Go locations, and reiterated it has no plans to add the technology to the larger and more complex Whole Foods stores.

The opening date, Jan. 22, could very well be remembered as a milestone in the history of consumerism, as Reuterspointed out. While many assumed Amazon would quickly adapt the Amazon Go format for use at its Whole Foods stores, the company says it presently has no plans to integrate the technology with WFM.

Bloomberg reported back in November that that the Amazon Go team had shifted from hiring the engineers and research scientists needed to perfect the platform to hiring construction managers and marketers necessary to build and promote the stores to consumers – a decision that likely signaled Amazon’s intentions to take the concept nation-wide.

But apparently Jeff Bezos has decided that crushing rival grocery…
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What MiFID II means for you

By Akhlaqahmed9941. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The EU’s biggest financial rule book shake-up in a decade has just landed. This week I sum up what it means for private investors and their advisors.


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The post What MiFID II means for you appeared first on ValueWalk.

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Monday Market Movement – With No Government, What Will Move Us?

Government shutdown! 

No one really cares.  It sounds like something, but it's nothing.  The government was shut down for 2 weeks in 2013 and hardly anyone noticed and, frankly, this Government has been dysfunctional for pretty much all of 2017, so it's not like we're going to miss it.  Meanwhile, our President is tweeting from the twilight zone where Global Warming is "good weather" and millions of women marching against him all over the country is a "celebration" of his policies.  You can't make this stuff up.  No, really, you can't, because a sane person couldn't imagine having that reaction to what is actually happening.  

chartMeanwhile, the last time the markets were this bullish was 1987 and we begain that year with a rally from S&P 250 to S&P 335 in August and then back to 200 (-40%) in October – so a hell of a fun ride that time!  More recently though, we were also very enthusiastic in 2015 and there we topped out, also in August, at 2,200 on the S&P and we only fell to 1,850 (-16%) into 2016 so maybe this rally can last into the summer but, if it does, it will be the most overbought, overconfident market ever measured – much healthier to have a small correction now. 

We added some portfolio hedges into the Government shut-down weekend but, so far, there's no indication that the markets care and we assume there will be a relief rally once Congress comes to an agreement so, if anything, we may go higher from here.  Earnings, so far, have not been bad so no particular reason for a pullback but, this week, 20% of the S&P 500 (100) Companies will report and then we'll have a pretty good picture of what's happening in various sectors.

Not only is there not much data scheduled to be released this week but it might not be released at all if the Government contines to be shut down. Currently on the schedule are reports from the Chicago, Richmond and Kansas City Feds along with some housing data but nothing major until we get our GDP and Durable Good Reports on Friday.  All of this is up in
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Phil's Favorites

Guarding against the possible Spectre in every machine

 

Guarding against the possible Spectre in every machine

Courtesy of Scott ShackelfordIndiana University

A call to better track manufacturing, shipping and distribution. Travel mania/Shutterstock.com

Security vulnerabilities in technology extend well beyond problems with software. Earlier this month, researchers revealed that the hardware at the heart of ...



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ValueWalk

Bill Miller On Amazon, Google, Facebook And Bitcoin

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Miller Value Partners’ Bill Miller holds the record for being the only mutual fund manager to beat the market for 15 years in a row. One way he did it is by investing in new technologies that the Wall Street establishment thought were crazy at the time – Amazon, Google, and Facebook among them. His latest “crazy” idea: Bitcoin.

]]> Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

Listen to the audio only version here:

...



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Zero Hedge

Global Markets Shrug As US Government Shutdown Enters Day 3

 

Global Markets Shrug As US Government Shutdown Enters Day 3

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Global stocks and U.S. bond markets on Monday shrugged off day three of the US government shutdown in Washington, although the dollar pulled back as the euro continued its strong start to the year, while U.S. stock index futures dipped less than 0.1% on expectations that the political impasse will not hurt the U.S. economy and that it will be resolved shortly, which may prove to be an overly optimistic outlook.

Here is Bloomberg's quick on what has been a particularly quiet overnight session:

Exceptionally quiet European session due to lack of pert...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Crashing Again...

 

Cryptos Are Crashing Again...

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

From South Korean bank blocks to Bulgarian ponzi scheme shutdowns and a Bali bitcoin crackdown, you can take your pick as to what is driving the sudden plunge in cryptocurrencies this morning. Ethereum is back below $1000, Bitcoin is back to a $10k handle, and Ripple is down 30% from the weekend's highs.

Weakness began around 6amET but really accelerated at around 8am ET...

With Bitcoin and Ethereum breaking key support levels..

The catalyst for the move is uncertain at best with numerous headlines over the weekend:

OneCoin offices ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 21, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Investors suffered through two whole days of losses in a shortened week – but the indexes still gained on the week!  Boo yah!  Even a sharp reversal Tuesday (gap up, close at the lows) – which is usually negative short term – couldn’t stop the freight train.  Earnings season kicked off in earnest.  The government shutdown put absolutely zero fear into markets.

“I would characterize a shutdown as just the kind of political news that the market has demonstrated, over the past year, a willingness to ignore,” said Hank Smith, co-chief investment officer at Haverford Trust, which manages $8 billion.

The S&P 500 gained 0.9% for the week, while the NASDAQ jumped 1.0%.

Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at wealth manager Bleakley Financial G...



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Insider Scoop

34 Biggest Movers From Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Forward Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: FORD) shares surged 137.9 percent to close at $2.95 on Friday after the company reported the acquisition of Intelligent Product Solutions.
  • NuCana PLC (ADR) (NASDAQ: NCNA) shares climbed 41.55 percent to close at $20.51 as the company announced plans to initiate a Phase 3 study of Acelarin in front-line advanced biliary tract cancer.
  • New Age Beverages Corporation (NASDAQ: NBEV) shares jumped 22.5 percent to close at $3.92 on Friday.
  • ...


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Biotech

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain - new study

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain – new study

Courtesy of Thomas E CopeUniversity of Cambridge

Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating brain illness that affects an estimated 47m people worldwide. It is the most common cause of dementia in the Western world. Despite this, there are currently no treatments that are effective in curing Alzheimer’s disease or preventing its relentless progressio...



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Mapping The Market

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like 'Science-Based,' 'Diversity'

By Jean-Luc

These are the policies of a theocracy, not a modern democracy:

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like ‘Science-Based,’ ‘Diversity’

The Trump administration has prohibited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from using words like “science-based,” “diversity,” and “transgender” in their official documents for next year’s budget, according to the Washington Post.

Senior CDC budget leader Alison Kelly met with the agency’s policy analysts on Thursday to announce ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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