Archive for the ‘Permissions’ Category

Oil’s Most Popular Trading Products May Soon Be Shut Down

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Michael McDonald via OilPrice.com,

For most retail investors, buying physical crude oil as a commodity is not an option. Instead, many investors turn to exchange traded notes (ETNs) as a way to speculate on changes in oil prices themselves.

But direct oil investment products like USO have always been dicey as investment choices. More sophisticated investors with big Wall Street banks who have high speed trading and information advantages can essentially front run products like USO which trade oil contracts on a predictable basis. As a result, USO has been a far from perfect tool to replicate oil’s price movements.

By the same token, leveraged structured products including some oil ETNs are an even worse choice. For evidence of that, one need look no further than UWTI, the leveraged exchange traded note run by Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse recently announced that it was shutting down UWTI and a similar but slightly smaller leveraged ETN also focused on oil.

The problem with products like UWTI is not that the product is unsuccessful, but rather that it is broken. UWTI was supposed to give investors triple the daily exposure to a crude oil index. That meant gains or losses from speculating on oil could be substantially magnified by investors using the product. For that reason, the daily dollar trading value of UWTI was roughly the same as the dollar value of megacap Exxon Mobil’s daily trading volume.

Similarly, UWTI has incredible liquidity – roughly half its shares turned over on any given day. That was largely driven by the fact that ETNs are not appropriate long term investments because of the transactions costs they incur in operations. Unfortunately for traders, those transactions costs add up over time – that’s true in the case of UWTI and virtually all other leveraged ETNs.

In the case of UWTI, this meant that the shares lost 99.6 percent of their value over the last four years even as oil has only fallen by 50 percent. The only thing that stopped UWTI from ending up as one of the cheapest of penny stock investments is that the shares went through multiple reverse splits. Investors in UWTI were virtually guaranteed to lose money on the shares if they held them for even a short time, especially when compared to the alternative of


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The Resignation of Italy’s Prime Minister Renzi is Another Major Blow to the Globalist Agenda

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Hold your real assets outside of the banking system in one of many private international facilities  -->    https://www.sprottmoney.com/intlstorage 

The Resignation of Italy’s Prime Minister Renzi is Another Major Blow to the Globalist Agenda

Written by Nathan McDonald (CLICK HERE FOR ORIGINAL)

Prime Minister Renzi was forced to resign. The people of Italy and liberty lovers around the world rejoice in their victory, as another globalist puppet is toppled. This trend is unfolding now at a rapid pace and is one that is not going to stop anytime soon, much to the globalists’ disappointment.

Brexit, followed by the victory of Donald Trump and now the defeat of Renzi’s constitutional referendum bill that has seen him resign, is highlighting the reality we now live in, a reality in which people are waking up at a rate never before seen in our world history.

People are sick and tired of being ruled over by an elite few, pulling the strings of our hand-picked prime ministers and presidents. The people want change, as it is blatantly obvious that the push towards globalism has done nothing to enrich the lower and middle class people of the world.

This fact should be celebrated by all, as this is the very same group of people who have manipulated our markets, including precious metals, and instilled the horribly flawed fiat money system that we are now forced to operate under.

The fight may be far from over, and in all honesty will never truly end, but for a moment we should step back and take a look at exactly what has happened and bask in the glory of how many globalist puppets have been defeated in 2016 alone, a year that will go down in the books as one of the most radical changes in our world’s long history.

First, there was the British Prime Minister David Cameron, who resigned after his surprise defeat in the Brexit referendum, largely led by the liberty lover Nigel Farage.

Second, emboldened


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Trump Sold All His Stocks In June

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following today’s tweet and follow up suggesting that Trump is now targeting Boeing’s contract pricing practices, questions emerged whether the President-elect wasn’t engaging in a conflict of interest due to his numerous, existing shareholdings. However, according to Trump spokesman Jason Miller, Donald Trump sold all of his stockholdings in June, removing himself from positions in numerous U.S. companies.

Miller made the revelation during a phone call with reporters on Tuesday morning. He was asked about Mr. Trump’s past holdings in Boeing Co., a company the president-elect had criticized earlier in the day for what he alleged were high costs for the next Air Force One, the WSJ reported.

“The President-elect sold all of his stock back in June,” Miller said. He subsequently clarified he was referring broadly to all of Mr. Trump’s stock, not Boeing specifically.

As his publicly disclosed asset list reveals, Trump had at least two brokerage accounts that held roughly 150 separate corporate stock and bond investments, according to a filing he submitted to the U.S. Office of Government Ethics in May. These included investments in a wide range of well-known companies, including Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Boeing and Visa Inc. Trump’s stock portfolio was worth roughly $40 million as of December 2015. The President-elect had between $50,000 to $100,000 of Boeing Co. stock when he filed his personal financial disclosure on May 15.

As a reminder, two months later, in early August, Trump said “it’s time to sell stocks” and warned of “very scary scenarios” for investors. We now know that at least he had followed his advice. As to whether it is a very scary time for investors, we look forward to an upcoming tweet, warning that the market is “yuugely overvalued.”

Trump has a number of investments, including real estate properties, around the world. Some critics have alleged that parts of his portfolio could pose conflicts of interest, based on policies pursued once in the White House or moves by companies or foreign governments to try to curry favor. Liquidating his stock portfolio could alleviate some of those concerns, but House Democrats have pressed for more information about how he will manage his real estate holdings.

As the WSJ notes, Trump is expected to talk more about his business investments at a Dec. 15 press conference.


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Pentagon Buries Study Revealing $125 Billion In Waste On “Bloated Bureaucracy”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The Pentagon’s goal was simple, empower the Defense Business Board (DBB), a federal advisory panel of corporate executives, to retain consultants to identify potential cost savings in the Department of Defense’s $580 billion budget.  But, when the DBB study revealed a “clear path to saving over $125 billion,” a level of waste which spoke to the egregious mismanagement and incompetence of DoD leaders, it was clear something had to be done to bury the story.  Now, according to the Washington Post, that is exactly what happened.

The Pentagon has buried an internal study that exposed $125 billion in administrative waste in its business operations amid fears Congress would use the findings as an excuse to slash the defense budget, according to interviews and confidential memos obtained by The Washington Post.

Pentagon leaders had requested the study to help make their enormous back-office bureaucracy more efficient and reinvest any savings in combat power. But after the project documented far more wasteful spending than expected, senior defense officials moved swiftly to kill it by discrediting and suppressing the results.

The report, issued in January 2015, identified “a clear path” for the Defense Department to save $125 billion over five years. The plan would not have required layoffs of civil servants or reductions in military personnel. Instead, it would have streamlined the bureaucracy through attrition and early retirements, curtailed high-priced contractors and made better use of information technology.

Defense

The study was produced last year by the Defense Business Board with help from consultants with McKinsey and Company. Their report revealed for the first time that the Pentagon was spending almost a quarter of its $580 billion budget on overhead and core business operations such as accounting, human resources, logistics and property management.

Wapo

The data further showed that the Defense Department was paying a staggering number of people — 1,014,000 contractors, civilians and uniformed personnel — to fill back-office jobs far from the front lines. That workforce supports 1.3 million troops on active duty, the fewest since 1940.

Wapo

Pentagon officials had hoped to use the cost-cutting report to identify opportunities to eliminate “waste” that could


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Pentagon May Receive Over $600 Billion Despite Hiding Additional $125 Billion ‘Waste’

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

House Pushes Ahead with $611 Billion Defense Policy Bill … The Republican-led House is pushing ahead with a $611 billion defense policy bill that prohibits closing the prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, forbids the Pentagon from trimming the number of military bases and awards U.S. troops their largest pay raise in six years. -Business Insider

The Pentagon is about to reap a generous windfall of revenue of up to $600 billion or more (see above) even though it cannot adequately account for up to $8 trillion and just recently was exposed for hiding some $125 billion of “bureaucratic waste.

A Washington Post investigation reveals this waste, which was internally documented in a study by the Pentagon. That study itself showed the funds that were improperly distributed.

Here, from the Post story:

The Pentagon has buried an internal study that exposed $125 billion in administrative waste in its business operations amid fears Congress would use the findings as an excuse to slash the defense budget, according to interviews and confidential memos obtained by The Washington Post.

Pentagon leaders had requested the study to help make their enormous back-office bureaucracy more efficient and reinvest any savings in combat power. But after the project documented far more wasteful spending than expected, senior defense officials moved swiftly to kill it by discrediting and suppressing the results.

The report, issued in January 2015, identified “a clear path” for the Defense Department to save $125 billion over five years. The plan would not have required layoffs of civil servants or reductions in military personnel. Instead, it would have streamlined the bureaucracy through attrition and early retirements, curtailed high-priced contractors and made better use


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The VIX FOMC Setup (Video)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By EconMatters



We discuss a VIX Trading Setup into the FOMC Meeting next week, with the option to rollover into the January contract as we expect a significant spike in the VIX over the next 6-8 weeks. Buy the VIX into the FOMC Rate Hike Meeting next week at these low levels!

© EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   





Time Urges 65 Million Americans Who Voted For Hillary Not To Pay Taxes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Under the twisted premise of losing the popular vote and “no taxation without representation”, TIME’s Mark Weston proclaims that the approximately 65 million Democrats who voted for Hillary Clinton should pledge “we won’t pay taxes to the federal government… until democracy is restored.”

Because, It’s just not fair?

Twice in the past 16 years, a Republican candidate who finished second in the popular vote has won the presidency. This year, Donald Trump won the electoral vote with about 46% of the popular vote, while Hillary Clinton received about 48%. If the parties stay this evenly divided, another electoral mishap is more likely than not in the next 20 years.

Most Republicans are quite content with this system. Appeals to fairness have not persuaded them of the need to amend the Constitution to establish direct presidential elections, preferably with a runoff if no one wins 50% of the vote. Nor does the real chance that a Democrat could win the presidency with fewer votes than a Republican alarm them. Even the taunt, “Are you afraid of a direct election? Can’t you win a straight-up vote?” doesn’t faze them. Democrats must, therefore, pester Republicans where it hurts: the pocketbook.

Is signing a pledge to not pay taxes legal? Yes, if no overt act of conspiracy is involved, and the pledge itself is hypothetical. No one knows when or if it would be carried out.

A national movement not to pay federal taxes in the future would put Republicans on notice: they do not have the right to impose a hard-right, second-place presidency on a moderate nation every dozen or so years. If the Republicans won’t help amend the Constitution so that America can resume being a democracy, then Democrats, lacking the representation that supporters of a future popular vote-winner ought to have in the executive branch, should not submit to paying taxes to the federal government.

How would the pledge work?  

First, an online group such as MoveOn.org, Change.org or both, should circulate a petition. The pledge is not just a powerful protest; it is also effortless, requiring no legal or financial sacrifice at all for years, possibly decades.

Second, the pledge should only apply to federal taxes. We would still pay state, local, sales and


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The Dramatic Impact Of Surging Rates On Housing And Refis In One Chart

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

To visualize the impact the recent spike in mortgage rates will have on the US housing market in general, and home refinancing activity in particular, look no further than this chart from the October Mortgage Monitor slidepack by Black Knight

The chart profiles the sudden collapse of the refi market using October and November rates. As Black Knight writes, it looks at the – quite dramatic – effect the mortgage rate rise has had on the population of borrowers who could both likely qualify for and have interest rate incentive to refinance. It finds it was cut in half in just one month.

Some more details from the source:

  • The results of the U.S. presidential election triggered a treasury bond selloff, resulting in a corresponding rise in both 10-year treasury and 30-year mortgage interest rates
  • Mortgage rates have jumped 49 BPS in the 3 weeks following the election, cutting the population of refinanceable borrowers from 8.3 million immediately prior to the election to a total of just 4 million, matching a 24-month low set back in July 2015
  • Though there are still 2M borrowers who could save $200+/month by refinancing and a cumulative $1B/month in potential savings, this is less than half of the $2.1B/ month available just four weeks ago
  • The last time the refinanceable population was this small, refi volumes were 37 percent below Q3 2016 levels

Which is bad news not only for homeowners, but also for the banks, whose refi pipeline – a steady source of income and easy profit – is about to vaporize.

It’s not just refinancings, however, According to the report, as housing expert Mark Hanson notes, here is a summary of the adverse impact the spike in yields will also have on home purchases:

  • Overall purchase origination growth is slowing, from 23% in Q3’15 to 7% in Q3’16.
  • The highest degree of slowing – and currently the slowest growing segment of the market – is among high credit borrowers (740+ credit scores).
  • The 740+ segment has been mainly responsible for the overall recovery in purchase volumes and in fact, currently accounts for 2/3 of all purchase lending in the market today.
  • Since Q3’15 the growth rate in this segment has dropped from 27% annually to 5% in Q3’16. (NOTE, Q3/Q4’15 included


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Watch Ron Paul Ask If Trump Can Leash Pentagon “Mad Dog” Mattis: Live Feed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

President-elect Trump’s choice of Gen. James Mattis to be Defense Secretary has raised more than a few eyebrows. Not only as a military officer in a traditionally civilian position, but also as an executive in a leading defense contractor. His views on Iran are also considered extreme and not grounded in reality.

“The Iranian regime in my mind is the single most enduring threat to stability and peace in the Middle East. …Iran is not an enemy of ISIS. They have a lot to gain from the turmoil in the region that ISIS creates.”

Ron Paul asks “Will the mad dog be leashed?” in the following live discussion (starting at 12ET)…

*  *  *

As Ron Paul detailed earlier, President-elect Donald Trump told a Cincinnati audience this week that he intends to make some big changes in US foreign policy. During his “thank you” tour in the midwest, Trump had this to say:

We will pursue a new foreign policy that finally learns from the mistakes of the past. We will stop looking to topple regimes and overthrow governments. …In our dealings with other countries we will seek shared interests wherever possible…”

If this is really to be President Trump’s foreign policy, it would be a welcome change from the destructive path pursued by the two previous administrations. Such a foreign policy would go a long way toward making us safer and more prosperous, as we would greatly reduce the possibility of a “blowback” attack from abroad, and we would save untold billions with a foreign policy of restraint.

However as we know with politicians, there is often a huge gap between pronouncements before entering office and actions once in office. Who can forget President George W. Bush’s foreign policy promises as a candidate 16 years ago? As a candidate he said:

I am not so sure the role of the United States is to go around the world saying ‘this is the way it’s got to be.’ … If we’re an arrogant nation they will resent us, if we’re a humble nation but strong they’ll welcome us.

Unfortunately as soon as he took office, George W. Bush pursued a completely different foreign


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Supreme Court Rules On Insider Trading For First Time In 20 Years: Why It Matters

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

On Tuesday morning, the U.S. Supreme Court, ruling in an insider trading case for the first time in two decades, upheld the conviction of a Chicago man – Bassam Salman – in a decision that could make it easier to prosecute people accused of profiting from confidential information.

The justices, in a unanimous 8-0 decision, ruled against Salman, who was appealing a 2013 conviction stemming from federal charges that he made nearly $1.2 million trading on non-public information that came from his brother-in-law at Citigroup Inc. In the ruling, the justices found that people can be sent to prison for making trades even when the insider who provided the tip wasn’t trying to make money, a key point of contention in previous cases. The court said it’s enough if the insider gave the information as a gift.

Salman had argued that prosecutors in insider trading cases must prove that an alleged source of corporate secrets like the brother-in-law received a tangible benefit like cash in exchange for any tips, something his brother-in-law did not receive. Such proof, prosecutors have said, would make it more difficult for authorities to pursue insider trading cases, potentially preventing cases in which executives tip friends or relatives without any getting anything tangible in return.

Writing for the court, though, Justice Samuel Alito said the court rejected Salman’s arguments, ruling that friends and family members could be held liable even if a tipper provides inside information as a “gift.”  

“In such situations, the tipper benefits personally because giving a gift of trading information is the same thing as trading by the tipper followed by a gift of the proceeds,” Alito wrote.

Prosecutors said Maher Kara, a Citigroup investment banker and Salman’s brother-in-law, provided tips about deals involving Citi clients to Kara’s brother, who in turn tipped Salman. A federal jury in San Francisco in 2013 found Salman guilty of conspiracy and securities fraud charges, and he was sentenced to three years in prison.

The Supreme Court heard Salman’s appeal on Oct. 5 amid competing rulings by federal appeals courts in San Francisco, where his case was heard, and New York, where a wave of insider trading prosecutions has been pursued recently.

* * *

The ruling sets an important precedent, and comes at a much needed time for


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Zero Hedge

Oil's Most Popular Trading Products May Soon Be Shut Down

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Michael McDonald via OilPrice.com,

For most retail investors, buying physical crude oil as a commodity is not an option. Instead, many investors turn to exchange traded notes (ETNs) as a way to speculate on changes in oil prices themselves.

But direct oil investment products like USO have always been dicey as investment choices. More sophisticated investors with big Wall Street banks who have high speed tr...



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ValueWalk

David Hume Believed In The Miracle Of Commerce

By The Foundation for Economic Education. Originally published at ValueWalk.

David Hume was one of the most prominent of the Scottish Moral Philosophers. He is particularly famous as a philosophical skeptic, who, in his book, An Inquiry Concerning Human Understanding (1748), questioned whether man’s reason and reasoning ability could successfully apprehend reality with any complete degree of certainty. He also argued that reason followed men’s “passions,” rather than reason being a guide for or a check upon men’s emotions and desires.

Image source: The Blue Diamond GalleryDavid Hume

Hume is also famous for arguing that there is a distinct difference between factual or “positive” statements from ethical or “normative” stat...



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Phil's Favorites

Boeing Responds To Trump

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Update: Boeing has issued a statement following President-Elect Trump's tweet.

“We look forward to working with the US Air Force on subsequent phases of the program allowing us to deliver the best plane for the president at the best value for the American taxpayer,”  Boeing spokesman Todd Blecher says in e-mail.

“We are currently under contract for $170 million to help determine the cap...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

European Stocks Little Changed With Industry Rotation on Hold (Bloomberg)

European stocks were little changed, as a recent rotation out of so-called defensive sectors and into shares seen benefiting from economic growth eased. Utilities and real estate companies climbed with banks, while miners trimmed recent lofty gains.

Yuan Rises for a Second Day as Fixing Signals Government Support (Bloomberg)

China’s yuan rose for a second day after an unexpectedly strong central bank fixing spurred specul...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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Members' Corner

Once In A Lifetime?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Summary
Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:
  • Dec 4th Italian Constitutional Referendum
  • Referendum Result; Market Reaction
  • Political Reaction; Opposition Party Reaction
Last Time Out
Since the end of World War II, 71 years have passed during which, the "perfect" balance has resulted in 63 different Italian governments, or more often than most change shoes.  Instead of being a real second legislative check, that balance is seemingly a weapon of mass distraction and instrument of political vetoes whi...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of December 5th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Inflation indicator testing multi-year breakout cluster!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Some tools are used to measure inflation or lack of. Some look at the price of Crude Oil, Doc Copper or the Commodities Index (CRB) to determine if inflation or deflation is in play. Since 2011, most commodities have created a series of lower highs and lower lows and for many, it has been easier to make the case of deflation than inflation, is in play.

Below looks at another tool, that is often used to determine if inflation or deflation is in play. This tool we are referring too is the TIPS/TLT ratio-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Dec 4, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

The market needed a pause after the frenetic post election rally, and it finally arrived this week.  The pullback was mild as bulls would like.  This week’s “fear of the week” was Italy’s political referendum which happened today… and was rejected.

Italian voters were asked in a referendum to approve changes to the country’s constitution, which have been called the most sweeping since the end of World War II. The proposed reforms would cut the Senate’s size by two-thirds and reduce powers held by the country’s 20 regional governments. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi believes the changes will aid efficiency in parliament.

The reforms could also “make it easier to implement important legislation (such as measure...



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Digital Currencies

Largest US Bitcoin Exchange Is "Extremely Concerned" With IRS Crackdown Targeting Its Users

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last Thursday we reported that in a startling development seeking to breach the privacy veil of users of America's largest bitcoin exchange, the IRS filed court papers seeking a judicial order to serve a so-called “John Doe” summons on the San Francisco-based Bitcoin platform Coinbase.

The government’s request is part of a bitcoin tax-evasion probe, and se...



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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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