Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member
Archive for the ‘Permissions’ Category

Real Retail Sales Per Capita: Another Perspective on the Economy

Courtesy of Doug Short.

In real, population-adjusted terms, Retail Sales are at the level we first reached in September 2004.

Last week the Advance Retail Sales Report showed that sales in June rose 0.2% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year, as I reported in my real-time update.

With today’s release of the Consumer Price Index, we can now dig a bit deeper into the “real” data, adjusted for inflation and against the backdrop of our growing population.

The first chart shows the complete series from 1992, when the U.S. Census Bureau began tracking the data in its current format. I’ve highlighted recessions and the approximate range of two major economic episodes.

The Tech Crash that began in the spring of 2000 had relatively little impact on consumption. The Financial Crisis of 2008 has had a major impact. After the cliff-dive of the Great Recession, the recovery in retail sales has taken us (in nominal terms) 15.7% above the November 2007 pre-recession peak to a record high.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

Here is the same chart with two trendlines added. These are linear regressions computed with the Excel Growth function.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

The green trendline is a regression through the entire data series. The latest sales figure is 4.0% below the green line end point.

The blue line is a regression through the end of 2007 and extrapolated to the present. Thus, the blue line excludes the impact of the Financial Crisis. The latest sales figure is 18.8% below the blue line end point.

We normally evaluate monthly data in nominal terms on a month-over-month or year-over-year basis. On the other hand, a snapshot of the larger historical context illustrates the devastating impact of the Financial Crisis on the U.S. economy.

The “Real” Retail Story: The Consumer Economy Remains at a Recessionary Level

How much insight into the US economy does the nominal retail sales report offer? The next chart gives us a perspective on the extent to which this indicator is skewed by inflation and population growth. The nominal sales number shows a cumulative growth of 166.7% since the beginning of this series. Adjust for population growth…
continue reading





Ackman Has 6 Months Left To Come Up With The Devastating-est HLF Presentation Ever

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Bill Ackman’s “most important presentation of his career” is not going so well. The ‘Death Blow’ expectations Ackman created yesterday (that sent the stock down 13%) have been entirely wiped away as a 2-hour presentation, 100s of slides, and nothing really new sent stocks 16% higher today… It appears time is running out for Mr. Ackman as his massive put position (bleeding value every day that passes) is set to expire in six months… and we suspect Carl Icahn can outlast Ackman’s view of market ‘irrationality’.

 

NOT the best day for Bill Ackman…

 

And time is running out…

 

 

*  *  *

We’re gonna need a Death-Blow-ier presentation…

UPDATE: This is now the biggest single-day rise in HLF’s history…

 

UPDATE: Herbalife Responds…

Statement from Herbalife in Response to Bill Ackman’s Three-Hour Presentation on Nutrition Clubs

Business Wire

LOS ANGELES — July 22, 2014

Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) today  issued the following statement in response to Bill Ackman’s three-hour, presentation on the Company’s nutrition clubs:

Herbalife is a 34-year old nutrition company with 7,400 employees worldwide and millions of members. Today, Mr. Ackman highlighted many of the reasons we are proud of our company, our record and the value we bring to members, consumers and communities around the world. His presentation reaffirmed that:

 * Herbalife is first and foremost a company with great products that people want.

* There are hundreds of thousands of members and millions more consumers who choose Herbalife for our products and community-based approach to health and wellness.

* There is a comprehensive training system for members who aspire to open their own nutrition club so that they are fully informed of the time, commitment and skills required to do so.

Once again, Bill Ackman has over-promised and under-delivered on his $1 billion bet against our company. After spending $50 million, two years and tens of thousands of man-hours, Bill Ackman further demonstrated today that the facts are on our side.

We will continue to focus on our mission of bringing good nutrition and economic opportunities to communities across the globe. We recognize that he is running out of time to make good on his bad bet against Herbalife, with the equivalent of 25.7 million shares in put options that expire on January 17, 2015. Today is evidence that…
continue reading





Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David’s free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends – “How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week.” Tell David PSW sent you. – Ilene





How Effective Have The Fed’s QE Programs Been?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,


continue reading





Flight MH-17 Black Boxes To Be Analyzed In “Impartial” London

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Now that the black boxes from flight MH-17 have been handed over by the Ukraine separatists to Malaysian authorities (somewhat denting the credibility of the fabricated Ukrainian YouTube clip in which the rebels were “instructed” by Moscow to hide the black boxes), there was one question: which impartial entity and/or country would be tasked with an objective retrieval and analysis of the contents. A little while ago we got the answer courtesy of none other than UK Prime Minister David Cameron:

So the Dutch are incapable of analyzing black boxes on their own and needed London’s help? Curious.

AP has more: 

Britain’s prime minister says black boxes from the Malaysia Airlines plane downed in eastern Ukraine will be examined by U.K. air accident investigators.

 

David Cameron said on Twitter that British experts at the Air Accidents Investigation Branch will retrieve data from the flight recorders for analysis, following a request from the Dutch government.

 

Earlier Tuesday, pro-Russia separatists in Ukraine handed the two black boxes from Flight 17 over to Malaysian investigators in the city of Donetsk. Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said the handover was part of an agreement he had reached with rebel leader Alexander Borodai.

 

Najib said the black boxes appeared “to be in good condition.”

It remains to be seen if the Air Traffic Control recordings with flight MH17 which as we reported last week were confiscated by the Ukraine secret service, would also be provided to London for a comparable objective inquiry.

In the meantime, we await said “objective” conclusion of what the Farnborough crack investigators uncover, the same investigators from the unquestionably objective UK, whose Prime Minister also made the tape one short hour ago, after he “lost patience with Vladimir Putin’s “bluster and obfuscation” on Monday night and called on Europe to impose “hard-hitting sanctions” on Russia after the downing of Flight MH17. In his strongest intervention since the disaster, which killed 298 people, the Prime Minister invoked the spectre of the Second World War and compared Russia’s aggression to that of Nazi Germany.”

Truly impartial objectivity all around.





The World Is Finally Catching On to the Fed’s Failures

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research.

For five years, the Fed has managed to fool most of the people.

 

There were some of us who openly criticized the Fed’s policies, noting among other things that:

 

1)   QE had an abysmal track record as far as generating GDP growth or job creation were concerned (see both Japan and the UK).

2)   The Fed repeatedly lied about the purpose of its policies (they were aimed at propping up the large insolvent banks, not helping Main Street).

3)   The Fed’s belief in the wealth effect (that higher asset prices would lead to greater consumer spending) was misguided if not outright delusional.

 

For five years, those of us who made such criticisms were in the minority. However, that tide is now turning. We are seeing an increased number of mainstream media outlets run stories that are outright critical of the Fed’s policies.

 

Here is a spate of headlines from such articles:

 

Have central banks been breaking the law?

 

The Fed in Danger

 

Should Janet Yellen Be Giving Us Stock Picks?

 

The political tide is beginning to turn against the Fed. After five years of the Fed being completely wrong about everything (remember the “growth is just around the corner” meme) while simultaneously eviscerating the middle class and increasing wealth inequality, even the mainstream press is catching on that something isn’t right.

 

After all, how can you spend over $4 trillion and still be talking about how fragile the economic recovery is? We’re now five years into this alleged “recovery.” Based on a normal business cycle alone the economy should be roaring forward rather than posting the pathetic -2.9% growth rate of 1Q14.

 

Indeed, even the Fed’s underlings are now pointing out what an abysmal job the Fed has done. According got the Fed’s OWN RESEARCH unemployment is a mere 0.13% lower courtesy of FIVE YEARS of extraordinary monetary measures

 

Without the Fed and its low interest rates, the jobless rate would have been higher these past few years – pretty much all economists agree on that.

 

But how much worse would things have been?

 

A paper written by two economists for the Atlanta Fed takes a stab at answering that question.

 

Leaving aside
continue reading





Inflation: A Six-Month X-Ray View

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. I’ve also included each of the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation.

We can make some inferences about how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depending on our relative exposure to the individual components. Some of us have higher transportation costs, others medical costs, etc.

A conspicuous feature in the table through the latest data is the volatility of energy, essentially the fluctuation in gasoline prices, which is also reflected in Transportation.

Here is the same table with month-over-month numbers (not seasonally adjusted). The change in energy costs is clearly illustrated, reflected here too in transportation.

The Trends in Headline and Core CPI

The chart below shows Headline and Core CPI for urban consumers since 2007. Core CPI excludes the two most volatile components, food and energy. I’ve highlighted the 2% to 2.5% range that the FOMC targeted in their December 12, 2012 press release, although the Fed has traditionally used the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index as their preferred inflation gauge.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

Year-over-year Core CPI (the blue line) made a moderate arc above the 2% benchmark beginning October of 2011. It dropped below the 2% – 2.5% range in August of 2012, but grazed the bottom of that range in February and July of last year. Core CPI has been below 2% for 22 of the last 26 months. The more volatile Headline CPI has spent 23 of the past of the past 26 months under the 2% lower benchmark. Much of the volatility in the past few years has been the result of broad swings in gasoline prices (more on gasoline here).

For a longer-term perspective, here is a column-style breakdown of the inflation categories showing the change since 2000.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

Note: For additional information on the component composition of the Consumer Price Index, see my Inside the Consumer Price Index.





What Inflation Means to You: Inside the Consumer Price Index

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort : The charts in this commentary have been updated to include today’s Consumer Price Index news release for the June data.

The Fed justified a previous round of quantitative easing “to promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate” (full text). In effect, the Fed has been trying to increase inflation, operating at the macro level. But what does an increase in inflation mean at the micro level — specifically to your household?

Let’s do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart below illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U, which I’ll refer to hereafter as the CPI.

The slices are listed in the order used by the BLS in their tables, not the relative size. The first three follow the traditional order of urgency: food, shelter, and clothing. Transportation comes before Medical Care, and Recreation precedes the lumped category of Education and Communication. Other Goods and Services refers to a bizarre grab-bag of odd fellows, including tobacco, cosmetics, financial services, and funeral expenses. For a complete breakdown and relative weights of all the subcategories of the eight categories, here is a useful link.

The chart below shows the cumulative percent change in price for each of the eight categories since 2000.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

Not surprisingly, Medical Care has been the fastest growing category. At the opposite end, Apparel has actually been deflating since 2000. Another unique feature of Apparel is the obvious seasonal volatility of the contour.

Transportation is the other category with high volatility — much more dramatic and irregular than the seasonality of Apparel. Transportation includes a wide range of subcategories. The volatility is largely driven by the Motor Fuel subcategory. For a closer look at gasoline, see this chart in my weekly gasoline update.

The Ominous Shadow Category of Energy

The BLS does not lump energy costs into an expenditure category. Instead, it includes energy subcategories in Housing in addition to the fuel…
continue reading





MYSTeRiouS WHiTe FLaGs…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.





After Delta Reroutes Flight Into Israel, 5 Other Airlines Suspend Flights To Tel Aviv On Missile Worries

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Update: U.S. FLIGHTS TO ISRAEL HALTED BY FAA

About two hours ago, and in the aftermath of the public outcry regarding flights in conflict zones, first Delta then most other major international carriers announced they would suspend flights to Israel “until further notice” amid concerns that a rocket landed near Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv. The list of confirmed airlines that have halted such flights is shown below.

  • US Airways also said it has canceled two flights to and from Tel Aviv from Philadelphia.
  • United Airlines canceled two flights from Newark to Tel Aviv, according to FlightAware.com.
  • American Airlines told NBC News that it is meeting to discuss the situation.
  • Lufthansa said there are no changes to its Tel Aviv flight schedules for now.
  • British Airways said it continued to operate as normal but is monitoring the situation.
  • KLM said it was meeting to discuss the issue.

According to NBC, “the move comes amid heightened concerns over the safety of passenger aircraft flying over war zones. A Malaysian Air Lines jet with 298 aboard was brought down as it was flying over contested Ukrainian territory. The White House said the Federal Aviation Administration has not issued any notices about flights over the Middle East. Israeli police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld told NBC News there is no event to the best of his knowledge taking place now at Ben Gurion. He said he believes the Delta cancellation probably came after a rocket fell 3 miles from the airport earlier Tuesday.”

The flight redirection is shown most vividly in the following flight pattern of Delta flight 468 from New York to Tel Aviv (via Flightradar24) which was rerouted shortly before arrival and landed in Paris instead.

Meanwhile Israel says there is nothing to fear. From Bloomberg:

After US Air and Delta cancel flights scheduled to land in Israeli airport this evening, Transport Minister Israel Katz says Ben-Gurion safe for landings and take-offs, according to Aviation Authority. No concern for safety of planes or passengers.

For now, however, nobody is taking chances with another MH17 tragedy.





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Chart School

Real Retail Sales Per Capita: Another Perspective on the Economy

Courtesy of Doug Short.

In real, population-adjusted terms, Retail Sales are at the level we first reached in September 2004.

Last week the Advance Retail Sales Report showed that sales in June rose 0.2% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year, as I reported in my real-time update.

With today's release of the Consumer Price Index, we can now dig a bit deeper into the "real" data, adjusted for inflation and against the backdrop of our growing population.

The first chart shows the complete series from 1992, when the U.S. Census Bureau began tracking the data in its current format. I've highlighted recessions and the approximate range of two major economic episodes.

The T...



more from Chart School

Zero Hedge

Ackman Has 6 Months Left To Come Up With The Devastating-est HLF Presentation Ever

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Bill Ackman's "most important presentation of his career" is not going so well. The 'Death Blow' expectations Ackman created yesterday (that sent the stock down 13%) have been entirely wiped away as a 2-hour presentation, 100s of slides, and nothing really new sent stocks 16% higher today... It appears time is running out for Mr. Ackman as his massive put position (bleeding value every day that passes) is set to expire in six months... and we suspect Carl Icahn can outlast Ackman's view of market 'irrationality'.

 

NOT the best day for Bill Ackman...

...



more from Tyler

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Phil's Favorites

The Rot Within, Part I: Our Ponzi Economy

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith of Of Two Mind

Depending on blowing the next bubble to temporarily prop up the economy is the height of foolhardy shortsightedness.

All the conventional policy fixes proposed by Demopublican politicos, technocrats and the vast army of academic/think-tank apparatchiks are the equivalent of slapping a coat of paint on a fragile facade riddled with dryrot. All these fake-fixes share a few key characteristics:

1. They focus on effects and symptoms rather than address the underlying causes, i.e. the dryrot at the heart of our government, society and economy.

2. They maintain and protect the Status Quo Powers That Be--no vested interests, protected fiefdoms or Financial Elites ever lose power as a result of these policy tweaks.

3. They are politically expedi...



more from Ilene

Insider Scoop

NQ Mobile Shares Plummet After Announcing Dismissal Of PwC

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NQ Investors Focus On Earnings Rather Than Geopolitical Tensions NQ Mobile In Possible Short Squeeze; Muddy Waters Sticks To Guns

Shares of NQ Mobile (NYSE: NQ) dropped as much as 24 percent in Friday's pre-market after the company announced that it has dismissed Pricewaterho...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls remain unfazed by borderline Black Swans

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic. But last Thursday’s news of the Malaysian airliner tragically getting shot down over Ukraine, coupled with Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, had the makings of a potential Black Swan event, which in my view is the only thing that could derail the relentless bull march higher in stocks.

Nevertheless, when it became clear that the airline...



more from Sabrient

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 21st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Please use your PSW user name and password to log in. (You may take a free trial here.)

#452331232 / gettyimages.com ...

more from SWW

Option Review

Dunkin' Put Options Change Hands Ahead Of Earnings

Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc. (Ticker: DNKN) put options are active on Friday as shares slip on a downgrade to “Neutral” from “Buy” (with a 12-month target price of $45.00) at Janney Montgomery, and perhaps ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings report next Thursday. Shares in the name are down 1.2% just before midday to stand at $43.36 and off the lows of the session. The stock has dropped nearly 20% since reaching a 52-week high of $53.05 in March.

The most traded contracts on DNKN today are the Aug 40.0 strike put options, with nearly 5,700 contracts in play against open interest of just 452 contracts. Mos...



more from Caitlin

Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



more from Paul

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Vs Gold - The Infographic

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Marc Faber has said "I will never sell my gold," he also noted "I like the idea of Bitcoin," and the battle between the 'alternative currencies' continues. The following infographic provides a succinct illustration of the similarities and differences between gold and bitcoin.

Please include attribution to www.jmbullion.com with this graphic.

...

more from Bitcoin

Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



more from Pharmboy

Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



more from Promotions



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>