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Japan Household Spending Down 4%, CPI Drops to 0.9%; Bankruptcies Soar in Yen Collapse

Courtesy of Mish.

In spite of the Yen falling 35% since 2011, Japan once again borders on deflation. Please consider Japan’s CPI falls to 0.9%.

Japanese core inflation last month fell below 1 per cent to a 13 month low, just weeks before prime minister Shinzo Abe heads to the polls to garner fresh support to push back a scheduled rise in sales tax.

Core consumer prices, all prices excluding fresh food, slowed to an annual pace of 2.9 per cent growth year-on-year in October, in line with forecasts. Stripped of any impact of the sales tax rise in April, core prices are up 0.9 per cent.

Highlighting the scale of the challenges facing the Abe administration, data released on Friday also showed households further tightening their purse-strings.

Household spending fell 4 per cent year-on-year, the seventh consecutive decline since the national sales tax was raised from 5 to 8 per cent in April. Retail sales dropped 1.4 per cent, reversing two months of gains.

The drop in core inflation comes not even 10 days after Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan governor, warned that a fall below 1 per cent was “possible”, in a reversal of comments made just four months ago.

Bankruptcies Soar in Yen Collapse

Here’s an interesting note regarding bankruptcies that I picked up from ZeroHedge: As Japanese Bankruptcies Soar, Goldman Warns “Further Yen Depreciation Could Be A Net Burden”

According to a recent bankruptcy survey by Tokyo Shoko Research, there were 214 bankruptcies due to the weak yen in January-September 2014, which is 2.4 times the 89 seen in January-September 2013. Far more of the bankruptcies were in the nonmanufacturing sector—81 in transport, 41 in wholesale trade, 19 in services, and 11 in retail—than in the manufacturing sector (44), which is consistent with our analysis based on the input/output tables.

Surprisingly, the number of bankruptcies since 2013 due to yen depreciation far surpasses the number of bankruptcies in 2009-2011 due to yen appreciation.

Bankruptcies Caused by Falling Yen

The Japanese consumer is faced with a falling yen, much higher taxes, and counting taxes prices much higher. The only saving grace for Japan has been falling energy prices.

Yet, prime minister Shinzo Abe Wants inflation and more of it. It’s madness.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com



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Today’s Dow – America In A Nutshell

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

All consumption… no production…

Dow Jones Industrials points…

 

*  *  *





The Price Of Oil Exposes The True State Of The Economy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatice Earth blog,


Jack Delano Cafe at truck drivers’ service station on U.S. 1, Washington DC Jun 1940

We should be glad the price of oil has fallen the way it has (losing another 6% today as we write this). Not because it makes the gas in our cars a bit cheaper, that’s nothing compared to the other service the price slump provides. That is, it allows us to see how the economy is really doing, without the multilayered veil of propaganda, spin, fixed data and bailouts and handouts for the banking system.

It shows us the huge extent to which consumer spending is falling, how much poorer people have become as stock markets set records. It also shows us how desperate producing nations have become, who have seen a third of their often principal source of revenue fall away in a few months’ time. Nigeria was first in line to devalue its currency, others will follow suit.

OPEC today decided not to cut production, but whatever decision they would have come to, nothing would have made one iota of difference. The fact that prices only started falling again after the decision was made public shows you how senseless financial markets have become, dumbed down by easy money for which no working neurons are required.

OPEC has become a theater piece, and the real world out there is getting colder. Oil producing nations can’t afford to cut their output in some vague attempt, with very uncertain outcome, to raise prices. The only way to make up for their losses is to increase production when and where they can. And some can’t even do that.

Saudi Arabia increased production in 1986 to bring down prices. All it has to do today to achieve the same thing is to not cut production. But the Saudi’s have lost a lot of clout, along with OPEC, it’s not 1986 anymore. That is due to an extent to American shale oil, but the global financial crisis is a much more important factor.

We are only now truly even just beginning to see how hard that crisis has already hit the Chinese export miracle, and its demand for resources, a major reason behind the oil crash. The US this…
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About Those Eyeball-Based Valuations: “Half Of Twitter Accounts Created In 2013 Have Already Been Deleted”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Still paying a #Div/0 valuation for Facebook or Twitter based on expectations of exponential growth in eyeballs, or rather “eyeballs“? Then perhaps read this first.

… many of the “users” on social media sites aren’t real people at all – they’re celebrity staff tweeting on behalf of their employer, or PRs promoting a company, or even fake accounts for people that don’t exist at all. In fact, half of all Twitter accounts created in 2013 have already been deleted.

 

These fake accounts are often created by unscrupulous firms that will beef up your follower count in return for cold hard cash.

 

“Twitter is in the centre of public interest and politicians or companies are often ranked by number of followers or re-tweets or the like – so, there is a whole “web optimisation” industry offering services to make you look better on Twitter – everybody can buy 10,000 followers for $5,” Pfeffer said.

Source: Forbes





The US Consumer Is So Exuberant, Best Buy’s Website Just Died

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Apple-esque marketing gimmick or spend-more-than-you-can-afford US consumer in full rampage…?

 





Can QE Prop Up Asset Prices Forever?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Chris Hunter via Acting man blog,

Popular Myths and a Shrinking Work Force

It’s not just voters who buy into popular myths. Many investors do too. Few have wider appeal than the myth that central banks can create economic growth via the printing press.

What central bankers and their supporters seem to forget is that growth comes from living, breathing human beings.

It often sounds a lot more complicated than it really is. But genuine economic growth comes from two things: the number of workers in the labor force and the productivity of those workers.

 

1124-MI-blog

 

That’s a problem for the US. Because according to a recent report in The Economist, its potential labor force is set to grow at less than one-third the 0.9% rate we saw between 2003 and 2013.

Making things worse, many of America’s boomers – the first of whom qualified for Social Security in 2008 – are opting out of the labor force. Instead of looking for jobs, they are choosing to live on benefits.

This helps explain why the percentage of working-age adults looking for jobs in the US has fallen to below 63% from about 66% when the global financial crisis struck.

And it’s not just Americans who are getting older on average.

From The Economist:

“[T]he ratio of workers to retirees is now plunging in most developed countries and soon will in many emerging markets. Japan is already liquidating the foreign assets its people acquired during their high-saving years; China and South Korea are starting to do so and Germany will soon.”

Fewer workers in the labor force. More retirees to support for those with jobs. Foreign retirees cashing out of their US stocks and bonds. Janet Yellen et al. better hope investors are gullible enough to believe the magic of QE can continue to levitate financial assets forever.

Otherwise, stock and bond investors will start to reconsider the prices they’re willing to pay to own their pieces of paper.

workers per retiree

Past and projected workers per retiree of selected countries – via macrobusiness.com.au.

 





Netherlands, Germany Have Euro Disaster Plan – Possible Return to Guilder and Mark

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by GoldCore.

Netherlands, Germany Have Euro Disaster Plan – Possible Return to Guilder and Mark

The Dutch and German governments were preparing emergency plans for a return to their national currencies at the height of the euro crisis it has emerged. These plans remain in place.


German Gold Deutsche Mark – (Special Edition)

The Dutch finance ministry prepared for a scenario in which the Netherlands could return to its former currency – the guilder. They hosted meetings with a team of legal, economic and foreign affairs experts to discuss the possibility of returning to the Dutch guilder in early 2012. 

The Dutch finance minister during the period has confirmed that Germany also discussed such scenarios.

At the time the Euro was in crisis, Greece was on the verge of leaving or being pushed out of the Euro and the debt crisis was hitting Spain and Italy hard. The Greek prime minister Georgios Papandreou and his Italian counterpart Silvio Berlusconi had resigned and there were concerns that the eurozone debt crisis was spinning out of control – leading to contagion and the risk of a systemic collapse.

A TV documentary broke the story last Tuesday. The rumours were confirmed on Thursday by the current Dutch minister of finance, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, and the current President of the Eurogroup of finance ministers in a television interview which was covered by EU Observer and Bloomberg.

“It is true that [the ministry of] finance and the then government had also prepared themselves for the worst scenario”, said Dijsselbloem.

“Government leaders, including the Dutch government, have always said: we want to keep that eurozone together. But [the Dutch government] also looked at: what if that fails. And it prepared for that.”

While Dijsselbloem said there was no need to be “secretive” about the plans now, such discussions were shrouded in secrecy at the time to avoid spreading panic on the financial markets.

When asked about Germany, Dijsselbloem said he couldn’t say whether that country’s government had made similar preparations.

German Silver Deutsche Mark – (1951-1974)

However, Jan Kees de Jager, finance minister from February 2010 to November 2012, acknowledged that a team of legal experts, economists and foreign affairs specialists often met at his ministry on Fridays to discuss possible scenarios.

“The fact that in Europe multiple scenarios…
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Copper & Crude Crash To 4 Year Lows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With all eyes focused on the malls around America, we thought a glimpse at two of the most important commodities to the world economy would provide food for thought…

 

Copper…

 

And Crude…

 

are at 4-year lows…

But you can still get a bargain stock at record highs…

 

 





As It Turns Out Deflation Is Good After All

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Earlier today, in typical German fashion, the chief of the Bundesbank poured cold water on Europe’s latest round of demands that Germany carry the weight of the rebound from the triple-dip on its shoulders, as usual, when Buba President Jens Weidmann Friday rejected calls for a German stimulus plan, saying only structural reforms and more competitiveness would kick-start eurozone economies. “Calls for a public fiscal stimulus plan in Germany to boost the Eurozone economy are amiss,” said Mr. Weidmann in a speech for an economic summit hosted by the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung. He is, of course, right: the longer Europe’s insolvent, uncompetitive governments kick the can and force Germany to do all the hard work, the longer Europe will be unable to get out of a hole that gets deeper with every passing day. In short: Mr. Weidmann refuses to “get to work” for a bunch of corrupt, clueless politicians.

He then proceeded to do something shocking: he was logical. Quoted by the WSJ, he said: “Investment rates that are above the growth potential of a developed economy aren’t likely to boost prosperity—this applies to both public and private investments.”

More:

The German government shares Mr. Weidmann’s view. It says public investment can’t solve the eurozone’s growth problem as structural reforms are needed. The International Monetary Fund and neighboring countries France and Italy have called on Germany to boost public investment. But Berlin has pledged only €10 billion ($12.5 billion) in additional public investment over three years starting in 2016, hoping this would spur private investment worth €50 billion.

 

Mr. Weidmann stressed that it is also wrong to believe central bank monetary policy would be able to solve the bloc’s economic problems.

 

“It is an illusion to believe that monetary policy means can raise economies’ growth potential permanently, or create lasting jobs,” Mr. Weidmann said. “In the end, this can only be achieved by structural reforms, because growth and employment occur in innovative companies and competitive products, and well-educated and highly motivated employees.”

Therein lies the rub: Europe is allergic to structural reforms, and as we have shown in the past, it blames its woeful fate on evil, evil “austerity” (somewhat paradoxical for a continent where record debt…
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The 2014 Black Friday Frenzy: America Goes Shopping, In Photos

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Black Friday is the day when the trademark US consumerism takes center stage for its annual manic, full-frontal exposure around the globe. Here is what it looked like around the US…

People buying TVs

 

Thanksgiving Day shoppers line up to start shopping at a Target store in Chicago

 

People carry shoes in Macy’s during Black Friday sales in New York

 

Shoppers line up outside Best Buy before the store opens in Newport, New Jersey

 

People line up outside before the Toys R Us store opened in Times Square

 

Women try on shoes in Macy’s to kick off Black Friday sales in New York

 

Shoppers wait to enter Macy’s to kick off Black Friday sales in New York

 

A girl chooses an item from Disney’s Princess toy line up to purchase at the Toys R Us store in Times Square

 

A shopper carries a TV outside a Best Buy store in Newport, New Jersey.

 

Shoppers enter Best Buy as the store opens in Newport, New Jersey

 

People look in the window before the Toys R Us store opened in Times Square.

 

A girl poses with an Olaf plush toy from Disney’s Frozen toy line at the Toys R Us store in Times Square.

 

Thanksgiving Day shoppers ride an escalator while shopping at a Target store in Chicago

 

Thanksgiving Day shoppers carry televisions at a Target store in Chicago

 

A woman lines up outside before the Toys R Us store opens in Times Square.

 

Shoppers line up outside Best Buy before the store opens in Newport, New Jersey

 

A girl looks at items from Disney’s Frozen toy line at the Toys R Us store in Times Square.

* * *

… And not only, because other countries increasingly adopt the “best” of US traditions. Here is what happened in the UK earlier today:

Black Friday hops the pond: Shoppers compete to purchase retail items on “Black Friday” at an Asda superstore in Wembley.

 

Shoppers wrestle over a television as they compete to purchase retail items on “Black Friday” at an Asda superstore in Wembley, north London November 28

 

… And Brazil:

Here, shoppers crowd outside a store before it opens on “Black Friday” in Sao Paulo.

Photos: Reuters





 
 
 

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Japan Household Spending Down 4%, CPI Drops to 0.9%; Bankruptcies Soar in Yen Collapse

Courtesy of Mish.

In spite of the Yen falling 35% since 2011, Japan once again borders on deflation. Please consider Japan’s CPI falls to 0.9%.
Japanese core inflation last month fell below 1 per cent to a 13 month low, just weeks before prime minister Shinzo Abe heads to the polls to garner fresh support to push back a scheduled rise in sales tax.

Core consumer prices, all prices excluding fresh food, slowed to an annual pace of 2.9 per cent growth year-on-year in October, in line with forecasts. Stripped of any impact of the sales tax rise in April, core prices are up 0.9 per cent.

Highlighting the scale of the challenges facing the Abe administration, data released on Friday also showed households further tighten...



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Zero Hedge

Today's Dow - America In A Nutshell

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

All consumption... no production...

Dow Jones Industrials points...

 

*  *  *

...

more from Tyler

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Chart School

Michigan Consumer Sentiment for November Slightly Trims Its Strong Preliminary Reading

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for November came in at 88.8, a bit off the 89.4 preliminary reading but up from from the October Final of 86.9. As finaly readings go, this is a post-recession high and the highest level since July 2007, over seven years ago. Today's number came in below the Investing.com forecast of 90.2.

See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. I've highlighted recessions and included real GDP to help evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy.


...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Holiday fever takes hold of stock investors, but a pullback is needed

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

With warmer weather arriving to melt the early snowfall across much of the country, investors seem to be catching a severe case of holiday fever and positioning themselves for the seasonally bullish time of the year. And to give an added boost, both Europe and Asia provided more fuel for the bull’s fire last week with stimulus announcements, particularly China’s interest rate cut. Yes, all systems are go for U.S. equities as there really is no other game in town. But nothing goes up in a straight line, not even during the holidays, so a near-term market pullback would be a healthy way to prevent a steeper correction in January.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based Sector...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Mining

Bitcoin Mining

Courtesy of Global Economic Intersection

By Rod Garratt and Rosa Hayes - Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

In June 2014, the mining pool Ghash.IO briefly controlled more than half of all mining power in the Bitcoin network, awakening fears that it might attempt to manipulate the blockchain, the public record of all Bitcoin transactions. Alarming headlines splattered the blogosphere. But should members of the Bitcoin community be worried?

Miners are members of the Bitcoin community who engage in a proce...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of November 25th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the Happy Thanksgiving Edition of Stock World Weekly!

Click on this link and sign in with your PSW user name and password. 

Picture via Pixabay.

...

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Market Shadows

Official Moves in the Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio

By Ilene 

I officially bought 250 shares of EZCH at $18.76 and sold 300 shares of IGT at $17.09 in Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio yesterday (Fri. 11-21).

Click here for Thursday's post where I was thinking about buying EZCH. After further reading, I decided to add it to the virtual portfolio and to sell IGT and several other stocks, which we'll be saying goodbye to next week.

Notes

1. th...



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Option Review

Yamana Gold call options sink

Yamana Gold call options sink

By Andrew Wilkinson at Interactive Brokers

A four-year low for the spot price of gold has had a devastating impact on Yamana Gold (Ticker: AUY), with shares in the name down at the lowest price in six years. Some option traders were especially keen to sell premium and appear to see few signs of a lasting rebound within the next five months. The price of gold suffered again Wednesday as the dollar strengthened and stock prices advanced. The post price of gold fell to $1145 adding further pain to share prices of gold miners. Shares in Yamana Gold tumbled to $3.62 and the lowest price since 2008 as call option sellers used the April expiration contract to write premium at the $5.00 strike. That strike is now 38% above the price of the stock. Premium writers took in around 16-cents per contract o...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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