Archive for the ‘Permissions’ Category

Carmageddon: This Is What 750 Million Chinese Hitting The Road Looks Like

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If you've ever complained about your commute, or the traffic jams on your way to vacation destinations, here is some context from China…

As RT reports, the carmageddon took place on the 2,273-kilometer Beijing-Hong Kong-Macau Expressway that links the cities of Beijing and Shenzhen in the Guangdong province, at the border with Hong Kong on Tuesday.

According to China's National Tourism Administration, more than 750 million Chinese were on the roads between October 1 and 7.

Why This Feels Like A Depression For Most People

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

“And the little screaming fact that sounds through all history: repression works only to strengthen and knit the repressed.” John Steinbeck, The Grapes of Wrath

Everyone has seen the pictures of the unemployed waiting in soup lines during the Great Depression. When you try to tell a propaganda believing, willfully ignorant, mainstream media watching, math challenged consumer we are in the midst of a Greater Depression, they act as if you’ve lost your mind. They will immediately bluster about the 5.1% unemployment rate, record corporate profits, and stock market near all-time highs. The cognitive dissonance of these people is only exceeded by their inability to understand basic mathematical concepts.

The reason you don’t see huge lines of people waiting in soup lines during this Greater Depression is because the government has figured out how to disguise suffering through modern technology. During the height of the Great Depression in 1933, there were 12.8 million Americans unemployed. These were the men pictured in the soup lines. Today, there are 46 million Americans in an electronic soup kitchen line, as their food is distributed through EBT cards (with that angel of mercy JP Morgan reaping billions in profits by processing the transactions).

These 46 million people represent 14% of the U.S. population. There are 23 million households on food stamps in a nation of 123 million households. Therefore, 19% of all households in the U.S. are so poor, they require food assistance to survive. In 1933 there were approximately 126 million Americans living in 30 million households. The government didn’t keep official unemployment records until 1940, but the Department of Labor estimated 12.8 million people were unemployed during the worst year of the Great Depression or 24.9% of the labor force. By 1937 it had fallen to 14.3% or approximately 8 million people.

The number of people unemployed during the 1930’s is an excellent representation of the number of households on government assistance during the Great Depression because 79% of all households were occupied by married couples with 4 people per household versus 48% married couple households today with 2.5 people per household. The unemployment rate averaged 19% during the heart of the Great Depression. Therefore, approximately 19% of all the households in the…
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The Real Reason For The Refugee Crisis You Won’t Hear About In The Media

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Nick Giambruno via,

There’s a meme going around that the refugee crisis in Europe (the largest since World War II) is part of a secret plot to subvert the West.

I completely understand why the locals in any country wouldn’t be happy about waves of foreigners pouring in. Especially if they’re poor, unskilled, and not likely to assimilate.

It leads to huge problems. Infrastructure gets strained. More people are sucking at the teat of the welfare system. The unwelcome newcomers compete for bottom-of-the-ladder jobs. Things easily turn nasty and then turn violent.

But the idea that the refugee crisis in Europe is part of a hidden agenda – rather than a predictable outcome – strikes me as strange. And it’s a notion that conveniently deflects blame away from the people and factors that deserve it.

Interventions Destabilize the Middle East

The civil war in Syria has turned the country into a refugee-maker.

Syria’s neighbors have reached their physical limit on their ability to absorb refugees.

That’s one of the reasons so many are heading to the West.

Lebanon has received over 1 million Syrian refugees. That’s an enormous number for a country with a population of only 4 million – a 25% increase. Jordan and Turkey also have millions of Syrian refugees. They’re saturated.

The number of refugees heading to the West, by contrast, is in the hundreds of thousands. So far.

But it’s not just Syria that’s sending refugees. Many more come from Iraq and Afghanistan, two other countries shattered by bungled Western military interventions.

Then there are the refugees from Libya. A country the media and political establishment would rather forget because it represents another disastrous military decision.

Actually, it’s not just Libyan refugees. It’s refugees from all of Africa who are using Libya as a transit point to reach Europe.

Before his overthrow by NATO, Muammar Gaddafi had an agreement with Italy, which is directly to Libya’s north, across the Mediterranean Sea. Gaddafi agreed to prevent refugees heading for Europe from using Libya as a transit point. It was an arrangement that worked. So it’s no shocker that when NATO helped a coalition of ambitious rebels overthrow the Gaddafi government, the refugee floodgates opened.

When there’s war, there are refugees. It’s
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Inflation Watch: Retiree Health-Care Costs Are Soaring

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Despite 'promises' of lower healthcare costs (from President Obama) and 'promises' of a comfortable retirement (if only you invest all your savings in stocks), Bloomberg reports the average 65-year-old couple retiring this year will face health-care costs of $245,000 in the years ahead, up 11% from 2014.

As Bloomberg notes,

The higher number stems in part from a change in assumptions about how long we'll live. In the wake of updated mortality tables put out by the Society of Actuaries last year, Fidelity Investments raised life expectancies in its annual Retiree Health Care Cost Estimate. For 2015, it assumes that a 65-year-old man will live to 85, and a 65-year-old woman to 87. In 2014, the estimate was 82 for a man and 85 for a woman.

The estimated annual increase in medical and prescription expenses stands at 4 percent to 5 percent, about the same as last year. Prescription costs are trending higher than medical, at slightly above 7 percent, said Sunit Patel, senior vice president of Fidelity's Benefits Consulting group. Prescription drug costs account for 23 percent of that $245,000 figure. Money spent on deductibles and cost-sharing with an insurer make up 43 percent, and 34 percent goes to Medicare Part B and D premiums.

*  *  *

No wonder the older generation is staying at work longer… that's alarming if you're 65, and maybe more alarming if you're 25 – imagine what the cost will be when you're ready to retire.

Oct 9 – FOMC Mins: Fed Held Off On Hike Amid Worries About Low Inflation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Pivotfarm.






Put and Call Options: GREED During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 31.29% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. However, this among the lowest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating greed on the part of investors.

Market Volatility:  NEUTRAL The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at 17.42. This is a neutral reading and indicates that market risks appear low.

Stock Price Strength: FEAR The number of stocks hitting 52-week lows exceeds the number hitting highs and is at the lower end of its range, indicating fear.




S&P 500 (ES) | NASDAQ 100 (NQ) | DOW 30
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NATO Talks Tough On Troop Deployment As Kremlin Calls West’s Bluff

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

For years, NATO has relied upon tough talk and promises of support for its member nations in order to reinforce an image of invincibility.

That image is supported by the implicit backing of the US military and Washington has been keen to perpetuate it in the past 48 hours by presenting the straw man argument that Moscow is set to inexplicably bomb Turkey (and if you follow geopolitics you know that that makes absolutely no sense at all) and so the West must do it what it has to in order to support its friends in Ankara in the face of “Soviet” (and we use that term on purpose because that’s how this is being pitched now by Western media) aggression.

To be sure, keeping up appearances was easy in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea. It was simply a matter of saying publicly that the West wouldn’t allow Moscow to overrun Kiev and re-establish the Soviet Union. 

But it doesn’t take a foreign policy genius or a lion-hearted NATO general to maintain that line.

That is, some of this was just posturing, because no matter what one wants to say about The Kremlin’s support for the separatists at Donetsk, Moscow wasn’t and isn’t about to invade every state in the Balkans which means that NATO’s excuses for stationing heavy artillery in Poland (to cite just one example) and for conducting very public war games that look quite a bit like preparations for a Ukrainian invasion, are largely bogus. 

Well, now that Washington is scrambling to find the right spin tactic to explain why Russia has done to ISIS in a week what the US hasn’t been able to do in over a year, NATO is now going all-in on the “we’ll defend Turkey” narrative even though i) no one is attacking Turkey, and ii) Ankara is waging a horribly bloody civil war on its own people with NATO’s blessing. Here’s AP:

NATO talked tough Thursday about Moscow’s expanding military activity in Syria, but the U.S.-led alliance’s chief response to the Russian airstrikes and cruise missile attacks was a public pledge to help reinforce the defenses of member nation Turkey if necessary.

“NATO is able and ready to defend all allies, including Turkey, against any threat,” alliance secretary-general

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The Stock Market Rally… To Nowhere

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management,

Has Consumer Confidence Peaked?

The latest reading of consumer confidence (103 for September) was a bit of head-scratcher. With the market in the midst of a 10% correction, layoffs rising, job, wage growth stalling, and China on the verge of implosion, how could confidence rise? 

While the media, and the Federal Reserve, focus on lifting asset prices to spur consumer confidence, as I discussed previously, such actions have relatively little impact on the vast majority of American's currently. However, there is a very high correlation between actual economic activity and consumer's confidence as shown in the chart below.


This should not be a surprise since consumers drive roughly 70% of economic growth. When the economy slows down enough to curtail consumer actions, confidence will once again drop. 

For investors, however, the question of the relationship between confidence and market behavior is more important. The chart below shows consumer confidence as compared to the S&P 500 index.


Sharp contractions in confidence have historically been coincident with sharp declines in the market and the onset of economic recessions. Currently, the decline in the market has not resulted, yet, in a decline in confidence as only a small portion of the economic makeup has been affected by the drop. Furthermore, the drop in the markets has not been dramatic or sustained long enough to break the "hope" of a continued "bull market."

However, if we look at the annual rate of change in the S&P 500 as compared to confidence, a potential warning signal emerges. 


Declines in the rate of change of the financial markets have generally preceded more marked declines in confidence as well as economic activity. Due to the rapid onset of the recession and market decline in 2008, the declines in both measures were more coincident.  

Currently, the annual rate of change in market performance has been declining since the beginning of 2014 when the Federal Reserve began extracting excess liquidity from the financial markets. This suggests that the current levitation of confidence will likely be transient unless market performance begins to reaccelerate. 

While there is indeed a correlation between rising asset prices and consumer confidence, the relationship between confidence and economic activity is significantly more important. With the recent decline in…
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Spoofer Complains About Spoofing, Is Ignored, Starts Spoofing, Gets Busted

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In light of Blackrock’s Hillary Clinton’s sudden interest in taming high frequency trading and imposing a fee on order cancellations, something we have said is imperative ever since 2009 and now is far too late to make a difference, it is worth highlighting that just today the SEC cracked down on yet another spoofing mastermind, no not Citadel, but another “basement” trader, Eric Oscher, 47, a former NYSE specialist and his firm Briargate Trading (an anagram of Arbitrage), who were busted earlier today for making the gargantuan profit of $525,000.

While the argumentation in the complaint is by now familiar to most  – someone spoofs a given stock or index, then quickl takes the other side, and cancels the spoofing order -  there are three very notable items in this latest crackdown on said spoofing “mastermind.”

The first explains why in a market in which volumes are contracting at a record pace, and where liquidity is so scarce flash crashes have become a virtually daily event, exchanges continue to proliferate like weeds. The reason is because spoofers like Oscher use one exchange in which they “telegraph” their spoof orders, they use another exchange in which to take the opposite side of the trade thus leaving no readily available trail of evidence exposing their conduct.

This is how the SEC explains it:

  • The Imbalance Messages Begin: At 8:30 a.m., the NYSE sent the first Imbalance Message for stocks expected to open with an imbalance (buy or sell). The NYSE continued to send Imbalance Messages with increasing frequency until the open of each stock; by 9:20 a.m., Imbalance Messages
    were sent every 15 seconds.
  • The Entry of the Non-Bona Fide Orders: Between 8:30 a.m. and the NYSE open, Oscher typically placed non-bona fide orders on the NYSE in securities that the Imbalance Messages identified as having large order imbalances. Oscher’s non-bona fide orders were reflected in the next Imbalance Message for that stock. Oscher’s non-bona fide orders often impacted the price of the stock on other exchanges. For example, for a NYSE-listed stock with a sell imbalance, Oscher’s non-bona fide buy orders reduced the sell imbalance and increased the price of that stock on other exchanges.
  • Briargate Obtains Positions on Other Exchanges: After Oscher placed spoof orders for a stock on the NYSE

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John Boehner To Stay On As Speaker After All, Fox Reports

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As The GOP lurches from turmoil to chaos, following speaker-in-waiting McCarthy's pulling out, Fox News' Bret Baier reports that Speaker John Boehner has agreed to stay on as Speaker – not just until the Caucus nominates someone – but, until that person can confirm 218 votes on the House floor (needed to take the Speaker’s gavel).

As Fox News Bret Baier reports,

Having Talked to several senior aides on Capitol Hill  (along with Chris Stirewalt and his sources on the Hill tied to the leadership) here is the picture that is beginning to form.

Speaker John Boehner has agreed to stay on as Speaker--not just until the Caucus nominates someone --but, until that person can confirm 218 votes on the House floor (needed to take the Speaker’s gavel).  Short of that – Boehner will stay on for the rest of this Congress and steer legislation that is pending.

What does this mean?   Moderates and leadership types are cheering and saying Boehner is the only one they will support.   Conservatives will go ballistic since they know this signals that Boehner will make ALL kinds of deals to get big ticket legislation through the House even if it means using Democrats votes to do it.

The news… short of another candidate that can get 218 votes (and that looks like a long shot with leadership and moderates lining up behind Boehner)

Looks like he may be here to stay to handle the very tough debt ceiling and next CR.

*  *  *

Perhaps The Pope spoke to him again?


Do You See What Happens, Alcoa, When Your “Restructuring” Non-GAAP Addbacks Tumble

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Moments ago, the company that traditionally kicks off earnings season did just that, and sent the ball into a throw in. The reason: just like all the other companies that have reported and pre-reported so far in the third quarter, its results were a huge miss: AA reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.07 missing expectations of $0.13, on revenues of $5.57 billion, a 10% drop Y/Y, also missing top-line estimates of $5.75.

And while the company did have some justifications for the collapse, blaming what else but China…

In China, Alcoa lowered its estimate for 2015 automotive production growth to up 1 to 2 percent, from up 5 to 8 percent; reduced its projection for 2015 heavy duty truck and trailer production growth to down 22 to 24 percent, from down 14 to 16 percent; reduced its 2015 commercial building and construction sales growth to up 4 to 6 percent from up 6 to 8 percent; and kept its 2015 packaging estimate unchanged at up 8 to 12 percent.

… the real culprit is none of that. Because, as regular readers know very well, with Alcoa it is all about the Non-GAAP addbacks…. and the problem here is that while in previous quarters Alcoa’s “restructuring” charges were vast, usually eclipsing the actual GAAP earnings number, in Q3 they tumbled to “only” $66 million – the lowest since March 2013.

They are shown as follows:

Because that $0.07 EPS, that was non-GAAP. On a GAAP basis, Alcoa generated a paltry $44 million in Net Income, down 70% from a year ago, which translates into 2 cents per share.

And just to show what Alcoa’s true EPS picture looks like, now that its restructuring charge “addbacks” are finally grinding to a halt, in the past year, GAAP Net Income was just $538 million. What about non-GAAP net income: more than double that or $1.154 billion. And that’s why, as Alcoa’s Non-GAAP myth is about to collapse into the company’s GAAP reality, its P/E is about to double… just as the company’s topline is tumbling.


Zero Hedge

Carmageddon: This Is What 750 Million Chinese Hitting The Road Looks Like

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If you've ever complained about your commute, or the traffic jams on your way to vacation destinations, here is some context from China...

As RT reports, the carmageddon took place on the 2,273-kilometer Beijing-Hong Kong-Macau Expressway that links the cities of Beijing and Shenzhen in the Guangdong province, at the border with Hong Kong on Tuesday.

According to China's National Tourism Administration, more than 750 million Chinese were on the roads betwe...

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Phil's Favorites

Chart o' the Day: The (non) Velocity of Money

Courtesy of Joshua M. Brown, The Reformed Broker

Why were the inflation hawks so wrong about quantitative easing? Why didn’t all the “money printing” lead to commodity prices skyrocketing?

One answer is that, while bank reserves were boosted, lending didn’t take off and there was no uptick in the velocity of money – the speed at which capital zooms through the economy and turns over. Absent velocity of money, QE could be looked at as either ineffective or actually causing a deflationary environment, where capital is hoarded and everyone is too petrified to risk it on productive endeavors.

Christopher Wood (CLSA) explains further in his new GREED & fear note:

To GREED & fear the best way to illustrate that quantitative easing is not working is the continuing declin...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Zambia Seeks to Restore Confidence With Budget Amid Power Crisis (Bloomberg)

Zambian Finance Minister Alexander Chikwanda is seeking to restore confidence in the economy to help reverse the world’s worst currency, record borrowing costs and sliding growth. The two things that matter the most to the outlook are the copper price and power supply, which he has little control over. 

The World Bank is betting on mass migration driving the global economy (Business Insider)

The impact of&nb...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P 500…Stuck in this zone, welcome to the “Chop House!”

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.


What do S&P 500 bull and bears have in common? There opportunities are being limited by a tight range!

I started sharing with members several weeks ago that the patterns suggested the S&P would be in a “Chop House” environment for a while and that I doubted bulls nor bears would be that happy of campers.

In this type of an environment, unless you are really quick, nimble and accurate, its a time and place to take it easy and let this play out. For the majority of traders, the distance between the close on 8/25 at 186 and the close of 200 on 9/16...

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Whitney Tilson On LL, EXACT, And Martin Shkreli


Whitney Tilson On LL, EXACT, And Martin Shkreli

Courtesy of Value Walk

1) The shares of one of my largest short positions (~3%), Exact Sciences, crashed by more than 46% yesterday. Below is the article I published this morning on SeekingAlpha, explaining why I think it’s still a great short and thus shorted more yesterday. Here’s a summary:

  • The U.S. Preventative Services Task Force’s Colorectal Cancer Screening Draft Recommendation issued yesterday is devastating for Exact Sciences’ only product, Cologuard.
  • I think this is the beginning of the end for the company.
  • My price target for the stock a year from now is $3, so I shorted more yes...

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Chart School

Yesterday's Losses Reversed

Courtesy of Declan.

Bulls can be happy with today's progress. What weakness emerged today was reversed by the close, a change on yesterday's action where sellers dumped in the last few minutes of trading. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day.

The S&P finished at the 50-day MA, but beyond that there is plenty of room beyond that to run to the next level of resistance at 2,045. Technicals are net bullish.

The Nasdaq pushed off its 20-day MA and has another 50 points of maneuver before it gets to its 50-day MA.  Technicals are not yet net bullish, but they are close.


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Sector Detector: Searching for solid support in the face of global headwinds

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Uncertainty about the health of the global economy led investors to flee U.S. equities during Q3, primarily driven by worries about China's growth prospects and the Federal Reserve’s decision to not raise rates. Sure, there are plenty of real and perceived headwinds, but on balance it seems that a recession here at home is not in the cards. And when you consider sentiment and the technical picture, it appears that a continuation of Friday’s bounce is in store. The question remains as to whether the seasonally strong Q4 will be able to propel the bulls through levels of resistance that have built up.

In this weekly update, I give my view o...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of October 5th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...

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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 


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Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene


The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

Thank you for you time!

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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