Archive for the ‘Permissions’ Category

Afghanistan is now officially James Mattis’ war

 

Afghanistan is now officially James Mattis’ war

Courtesy of Simon ReichRutgers University Newark

File 20170822 21526 1ap8dv5

How will U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis handle America’s “Forever War’? Jonathan Ernst/Pool Photo via AP

Donald Trump’s speech on his administration’s strategy in Afghanistan – in which he announced the introduction of an unspecified number of new combat troops, without a mission and without a specified end date, in a strategy that abandoned nation building but entailed war-fighting – clearly contravened the principles of his “America First” isolationist election campaign promises.

But for academics like me who spend their time studying American strategic policy, it provided few real surprises. Rather, it merely signaled the latest stage in the cycle of the longest-running war in U.S. history – what journalists and pundits have christened America’s “forever war.”

The beginning of the ‘forever war’

The origins of the war, of course, date to the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.

U.S. intelligence traced a link between al-Qaida operatives who had carried out the attacks and Afghanistan’s Taliban. In response, four weeks after those attacks, the United States, with NATO’s support, launched Operation Enduring Freedom against the Taliban and the al-Qaida fighters sheltering in Afghanistan.

As George W. Bush ambitiously asserted, even years after the war had begun,

“Our goal in Afghanistan is to help its people defeat the terrorists and establish a stable, moderate, and democratic state that respects the rights of its citizens, governs its territory effectively, and is a reliable ally in this war against extremists and terrorists.”

The United States went to war in Afghanistan after 9/11. 16 years later, we’re still there. AP Photo/Rahmat Gul

Britain’s lesson

In articulating these goals, the George W. Bush administration had obviously failed to learn the lessons of the British Empire.

The British may have effectively ruled most of the globe for almost three centuries. But they often ineffectively wrestled with controlling what…
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Travels In Myanmar: A New Frontier

By Franklin Templeton Investments. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Myanmar represents one of the newest frontier markets, and is one I’ve been anxious to learn more about.  Long isolated with a military regime, Myanmar has been undergoing a transition over the past few years. After five decades of military dictatorship, it is now under civilian rule. Thousands of political prisoners were released, economic and legal reforms were initiated and some societal restrictions were eased. The lifting of Western sanctions also helped drive stronger gross domestic product growth and foreign investment.

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Myanmar

sasint / Pixabay

On my most recent visit to Myanmar this summer, I decided to start in the more remote city of Mandalay, which was the seat of the ancient kingdom. Mandalay has an incredible history, and I wanted to get a feel for how people outside the more major city of Yangon lived.

A poem English writer Rudyard Kipling published in 1890 put Mandalay on the map so to speak. The poem expressed the thoughts of a British soldier’s nostalgia for the place. Compared with the cold climates and social restrictions of the United Kingdom at the time, Southeast Asia was considered to be “exotic.”

Mandalay was the capital city of what was then called Burma, a British protectorate from 1885 to 1948. Kipling portrayed Burma as a place of beauty—not only the country but also its people. Kipling’s words have since reappeared a number of times in popular culture, including in the song, “On the Road to Mandalay,” which Frank Sinatra sung.

Kipling wasn’t the only Westerner enamored with the…
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Jackson Hole Preview: Market Reactions, And Why UBS Says It’s “Nothing To Skip Lunch Over”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Historically the annual Jackson Hole symposium has been a major market-moving event as it has traditionally been the venue where central banks make critical announcements such as Bernanke's preview and hints of QE2 and QE3 in 2012, as well as Draghi's suggestion of the ECB's QE in 2014. As shown in the chart below, market reactions following these events have been material.

This year, however, while there was a sharp build-up in expectations after several media trial balloons suggested that Draghi would unveil the ECB's taper, the fact that the market sent the EUR just shy of 1.20 in frontrunning of this announcement, prompted the ECB head to abort the entire affair, "leaking" that no material announcement would be made this week in Wyoming after all. Which is why, in previewing potential market moves, Barclays says that "the risk for the EUR around the event is biased to the downside, and that EUR bulls might be disappointed by a lack of meaningful hints on ECB monetary policy normalisation."

ING is quick to take the fun out of this week's annual meeting: "this year's major speakers, Fed Chair Janet Yellen and the ECB President Mario Draghi, are likely to keep their cards close to their chest. Both speeches are likely to be fairly "high level" and lack any major hints about future policy."

As Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid echoes, "there might be a few less nerves about the next few days in markets than many felt a few weeks ago. Back then, Thursday's commencement of the annual Jackson Hole Symposium seemed to be a natural place for Mr Draghi to signal that exit from QE was soon to be accelerated. However a combination of still soft global inflation data and the Euro's recent ascent has made it unlikely that the event will be a watershed moment. Expect him to be upbeat on the economy but the hawkish/dovishness indicator might be swayed one way or the other on how much attention the Euro gets in his remarks."

What about the Fed side of things? Here, according to UBS there will be nothing of market-moving either, and as the bank's economist Seth Carpenter writes "Don't expect news at Jackson Hole. Chair Yellen has told


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The Chinese Economy’s Fatal Flaws

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by William Hongsong Wang via The Mises Institute,

Dr. Per Bylund’s recently published article poignantly states one of the core problems in the Chinese economy and its the state-manipulated Keynesian foundation. I do agree with his opinion. And if we dig deeper into the exact situation of Chinese economy, we will find that it’s a typical failing of the Keynesian, cronyist system.

By using the perspective of Austrian business cycle theory, lets take a look at China’s real estate industry, which is suffering more and more painfully from artificial credit issued by China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBC).

During the 2008 global economic crisis, China’s central government issued the famous RMB 4 Trillion Stimulus Package Plan (equaling to $586 billion).

Since 2009, the Chinese real estate economy has already suffered from three small economic cycles. As it is becoming more difficult for real estate companies to live on artificial prosperity, the duration of every business cycle has become shorter than the previous one. We also see more and more ghost cities because of the economic boom in every sub-economic cycle. There were at least 12 ghost cities founded in 2013, and the number of them jumped to at least 50 in 2017! Bankruptcy is happening more frequently among Chinese real estate enterprises. Since 2016, at least three real estate companies — with a combined debt of at least RMB 763 million — have gone bankrupt. The story of bankruptcy is continuing, with one of the biggest real-estate-driven enterprises, Wanda Group, facing financing problems. If Wanda no longer has access to cheap debt, it might not be able to refinance or roll over all its debt again. If Wanda has to face bankruptcy, it could possibly accelerate an end of the the current Chinese boom. 

The data from the Chinese local governments is also not optimistic; their debt levels have reached almost RMB 25 trillion (US$ 4 trillion) at the end of 2014. In 2015, even the PBC admitted in one of its annual reports saying that China’s financial system is facing higher instability and uncertainty.

The above evidence is not a surprise. All these are the


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Neocons Love Trump’s New Afghanistan Plan, Blackwater Calls It “Obama-Lite”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In an extended tweetstorm conccurrent with Trump's Monday night Afghanistan address, Ron Paul lashed out at the president, saying that at long last, Trump's neo-con nature had emerged. "Steve Bannon brakes removed. Neocons feeling their oats" and urging the public to "Beware! @LindseyGrahamSC loves Trump's speech! Why are arch-neocons celebrating so much? Very telling!." It appears that Paul's assessment of Trump's new strategy was not far off, because as the Hill reports today, the neoconservative wing of the Republican Party applauded President Trump’s troop surge in Afghanistan, even as members of the president’s base accused him of capitulating to the national security establishment.

Some of the loudest accolades came from foreign policy hawks in the Senate, including two of Trump’s fiercest GOP critics, Lindsey Graham and John McCain, who praised Trump for going against his “instinct” and delegating the decision to his generals, who convinced him that victory could be had in the 16-year war that has spanned three administrations.

“I’m proud. I’m relieved,” Graham said on Fox News after Trump’s Monday night address. “I’m proud of the fact that President Trump made a national security decision, not a political decision. I’m proud of the fact that he listened to the generals, and I’m most proud of the fact that he showed the will to stand up to radical Islam. I’m relieved he did not take the advice to withdraw, which would have been disastrous, or create a mercenary army, so I’m very pleased. Very thoughtful, very inspiring speech, and I can assure you a lot of people in Congress will be behind the president.”

McCain echoed Graham, saying Trump was moving beyond former President Obama’s “failed strategy of merely postponing defeat,” although it was not exactly clear how since Trump was doing precisely what Obama (and Hillary Clinton did and would have one), adding that it was “especially important” that Trump did not commit to a timeline for withdrawal.

Marco Rubio, another proponent of foreign US intervention and a "muscular" foreign policy, called Trump’s strategy “the right approach.”

New #AfghanStrategy based on the conditions on ground not on arbitrary numbers and timelines is the right approach

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) August 22, 2017


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Former U.S. Attorney On Awan Indictment: “There Is Something Very Strange Going On Here”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

We've written frequently over the past couple of months about the litany of unanswered questions surrounding the mysterious case of Debbie Wasserman Schultz's (DWS) IT staffers.  Why did DWS seemingly threaten the chief of the U.S. Capitol Police with “consequences” for holding equipment that was confiscated as part of an ongoing legal investigation?  Why did DWS keep Awan on her taxpayer funded payroll all the way up until the day he was arrested by the FBI at Dulles airport while trying to flee the country to Pakistan?  What, if anything, does the Awan family know about the DNC hacks that may have caused DWS to act in this way?

Now, Andrew McCarthy III, the former assistant U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York who led the prosecution against Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman and eleven others for the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, says there is "something very strange" about the recent indictment filed against Imran Awan and his wife Hina Alvi in the District of Columbia.

In a National Review article, McCarthy points out that it's not what's in the indictment that is necessarily surprising but rather what is seemingly intentionally omitted.  For instance, McCarthy points out that "the indictment appears to go out of its way not to mention" that Imran was apprehended while in the process of fleeing the country, a fact that would seem to be the best evidence available to prove the fraud charges.

Let’s say you’re a prosecutor in Washington. You are investigating a husband and wife, naturalized Americans, who you believe have scammed a federal credit union out of nearly $300,000. You catch them in several false statements about their qualifications for a credit line and their intended use of the money. The strongest part of your case, though, involves the schemers’ transferring the loot to their native Pakistan.

So . . . what’s the best evidence you could possibly have, the slam-dunk proof that their goal was to steal the money and never look back? That’s easy: One after the other, the wife and husband pulled up stakes and tried to high-tail it to Pakistan after they’d wired the funds there — the wife successfully fleeing, the husband nabbed as


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Ron Paul Institute Statement On Trump’s Afghanistan Speech

Also read: What an Afghanistan Victory Looks Like Under the Trump Plan (NY Times)

Ron Paul Institute Statement On Trump's Afghanistan Speech

Cross-posted at  Zero Hedge, here.

Authored by Daniel McAdams via The Mises Institute,

Like me, many of you watched President Trump's train wreck of a speech on Afghanistan earlier tonight. It's nearly midnight and I am still reeling.

I guess it was too much to ask to hear him admit the obvious and draw the obvious conclusions:  

After 16 years – the longest war in US history – no one even remembers what we are fighting for in Afghanistan.

The war is over.

Not another American (or innocent Afghan) life for one of the most convoluted and idiotic wars in history!

Trump of 2012 and 2013 said just that. Candidate Trump said just that.

Then tonight he told us that once you sit in that chair in the Oval Office you see things differently.

What does that mean?

Once elected you betray your promises so as to please the deep state? Here's the truth that neither President Trump nor his newfound neocon coterie can deny:

1) A gang of radical Saudis attacked the US on 9/11. Their leader, Osama bin Laden, was a CIA favorite when he was fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan. He clearly listed his grievances after he fell out with his CIA sponsors: US sanctions in Iraq were killing innocents; US policy grossly favored the Israelis in the conflict with Palestinians; and US troops in his Saudi holy land were unacceptable.

2) Osama's radicals roamed from country to country until they were able to briefly settle in chaotic late 1990s Afghanistan for a time. They plotted the attack on the US from Florida, Germany, and elsewhere. They allegedly had a training camp in Afghanistan. We know from the once-secret 28 pages of the Congressional Intelligence Committee report on 9/11 that they had Saudi state sponsorship.

3) Bin Laden's group of Saudis attacked the US on 9/11. Washington's neocons attacked Afghanistan and then Iraq in retaliation, neither of which had much to do with bin Laden or 9/11. Certainly not


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Funds Managing $1.1 Trillion Are Dumping Junk Bonds

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Even before Ray Dalio doubled down on his warning that the US has become as dangerously fragmented as during the pre-World War II days of 1937, prompting him to "tactically reduce" risk, some of the biggest names on Wall Street were selling.

Two weeks ago, T.Rowe Price made waves when it said that it had cut the stock portion of its asset allocation portfolios to the lowest level since 2000. The Baltimore-based money manager said it also reduced its holdings of high-yield bonds and emerging market bonds for the same reason. Roughly at the same time, in its mid-year review, Pimco said that "with the macroeconomic backdrop evolving in the face of potentially negative pivot points and considering asset prices generally are fully valued, we are modestly risk-off in our overall positioning" adding that “we recognize events could still surprise to the upside, but starting valuations leave little room for error.”

This followed a similar preannouncement by DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach who not only said that he is reducing his positions in junk bonds, EM debt and other lower-quality investments, but predicted – correctly – the volatility spike in the first week of August. 

Then it was Guggenheim's turn to make a similar warning: in its Q3 Fixed Income Outlook, the asset manager said that "the downside risk of a near-term market correction grows the longer volatility

remains depressed. Asset prices are at record highs while volatility has rarely been lower. Our Global CIO and Macroeconomic and Investment Research team believe these indicators point to a dangerous level of complacency in the market, which has shrugged off the Fed’s guidance that economic conditions support monetary tightening… given where asset prices are, they would have a long way to fall."

Guggeneim CIO Anne Walsh also warned that "high-yield corporate bonds are particularly at risk due to their relatively rich pricing, so we have continued to significantly reduce our exposure to that sector. The high-yield corporate bond allocations across our Core and Multi-Credit strategies are now at the lowest level since their inception. The bank loan allocation has also been reduced as a majority of the market is trading at or above par with some loans trading at


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Benjamin Graham: Buying Good Stocks At Fair Prices

By Rupert Hargreaves. Originally published at ValueWalk.

This is the second part of a series devoted to notes of Graham’s lectures between September 1946 and February 1947 at the New York Institute of Finance. The series of lectures was titled Current Problems in Security Analysis and it gives a great insight into Graham’s process . This article is devoted to Graham’s seventh lecture focusing at good stocks.

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Good Stocks,, Ben Graham, Benjamin Graham, writing, reading, books, The Intelligent Investor, Value investing, value investors, Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett, investor psychology, minimal debt, buy-and-hold investing, fundamental analysis, concentrated diversification, margin of safety, activist investing, contrarian mindsets

Benjamin Graham: Buying Good Stocks At Fair Prices

Graham spends plenty of time in his lecturers discussing the process of estimating company earnings power and investing with an appropriate margin of safety based on the outcome of this process.

In the seventh lecture, Graham covers the processes of analysts approach to securities as a whole. The godfather of value investing believed they were two fundamentally different approaches the analyst could take to security analysis. Firstly, the conventional approach, based on quality and a company’s prospects. The second approach named the “penetrating one” is based on value. Graham explained the differences between the two:

“The conventional approach can be divided into three separate ways of dealing with securities. The first is the identification of “good stocks” — that is “strong stocks,” “strong companies,” “well-entrenched companies,” or “high quality companies.” Those companies presumably can be bought with safety at reasonable prices. That seems like a simple enough activity.

The second is the selection of companies which have better than average long-term prospects of growth in earnings. They are generally called “growth stocks.”

The third is an intermediate
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WTI Drops After 3rd Weekly Build In Gasoline Inventories

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Amid Libya headlines and contract rollover, WTI prices were wild heading into the inventory data tonight. Following two weeks of surprising builds in Gasoline inventories, API reports a surprise 3rd weekly build in gasoline inventories, and crude drawing only modestly (in line with expectations). The initial reaction was a kneejerk lower, breaking down the day's wedge.

API

  • Crude -3.595mm (-3.5mm exp)
  • Cushing -462k (+300k exp)
  • Gasoline +1.402mm (-1mm exp)
  • Distillates +2.048mm

Last week confirmed the concerns about building gasoline (even though crude saw a draw) and API shows a 3rd week of builds (and crude's draw was just in line) and Distillates also saw the biggest build since July

Price action was chaotic today heading into the API data and immediately kneejerked lower (breaking down from the wedge)…

“If we are going to get into a new era of instability with Libyan oil production, if it becomes a wild card again, that’s definitely supportive for prices,” Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, told Bloomberg, adding, with reference to today's price action, there’s “a little bit of expiration madness. There’s a lot of positioning before the September expiration."





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Will CRISPR fears fade with familiarity?

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Will CRISPR fears fade with familiarity?

Courtesy of Patricia StapletonWorcester Polytechnic Institute

With all these ‘test-tube babies’ grown up, how have our reactions to the technology evolved? AP Photo/Alastair Grant

The first “test-tube baby” made headlines around the world in 1978, setting off intense debate on the ethics of researching human ...



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Biotech

Will CRISPR fears fade with familiarity?

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Will CRISPR fears fade with familiarity?

Courtesy of Patricia StapletonWorcester Polytechnic Institute

With all these ‘test-tube babies’ grown up, how have our reactions to the technology evolved? AP Photo/Alastair Grant

The first “test-tube baby” made headlines around the world in 1978, setting off intense debate on the ethics of researching human ...



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ValueWalk

Travels In Myanmar: A New Frontier

By Franklin Templeton Investments. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Myanmar represents one of the newest frontier markets, and is one I’ve been anxious to learn more about.  Long isolated with a military regime, Myanmar has been undergoing a transition over the past few years. After five decades of military dictatorship, it is now under civilian rule. Thousands of political prisoners were released, economic and legal reforms were initiated and some societal restrictions were eased. The lifting of Western sanctions also helped drive stronger gross domestic product growth and foreign investment.

]]> Get The Full Distressed Value Investing Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Distressed Value Investing in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

...

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Zero Hedge

Jackson Hole Preview: Market Reactions, And Why UBS Says It's "Nothing To Skip Lunch Over"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Historically the annual Jackson Hole symposium has been a major market-moving event as it has traditionally been the venue where central banks make critical announcements such as Bernanke's preview and hints of QE2 and QE3 in 2012, as well as Draghi's suggestion of the ECB's QE in 2014. As shown in the chart below, market reactions following these events have been material.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrency Hedge Fund Returns 2,129% YTD

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

We'll preface this post by saying we have never heard of the Alternative Money Fund - which "Specializes in Returning Freedom and Value" - and very well may never hear of it again, however it is notable for two things: i) it is a "hedge fund" invested entirely in cryptocurrencies and ii) it has allegedly generated a 2,129% return YTD, making it the best performer in hedgeco's ranking of asset managers YTD.

The "fund's" own description is similar to what one would find in any traditional asset manager, with one...



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Insider Scoop

5 Biggest Price Target Changes For Tuesday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related WUBA Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For August 22, 2017 Watch These 8 Huge Call Purchases In Tuesday Trade Chinese Stock Is Gaining Ground (GuruFocus) Related SBUX ...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 21st, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Aug 20, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

The story of 2017 has been “lack of volatility”.  There is finally some volatility entering the market, which is nice for those out there who like to actually trade a bit rather than buy and hold.  In last week’s recaps we noted the NYSE McClellan Indicator had registered an extreme oversold reading so a “rubber band” type of snap back rally could happen.

Thursday it hit an extreme level over -80 which we don’t see very often which can lead to short term snap back rallies.  But until we get back to sustained levels over zero caution remains in order.

So that “snap back” rally happened Monday – credit given to “an ebb in pressure between North Korea and the U.S. but the real headline should have been “the market was overs...



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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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