Archive for the ‘Permissions’ Category

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

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To learn more, sign up for David’s free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends – “How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week.” Tell David PSW sent you. – Ilene





Obama Loses Immigration Battle As States Block Executive Order

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

On the heels of a tough Senate fight that initially saw Democrats oppose granting fast-track authority on trade deals, President Obama was just dealt a fresh blow related to what some say is another example of Presidential overreach.

As Reuters reports, the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans ruled that an executive order on immigration designed to prevent the deportation of undocumented immigrants will remain on hold as 26 Republican state governors oppose the plan. Here’s more:

By a 2-1 vote that could pave the way to a Supreme Court ruling, the judges from the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans ruled that Obama’s executive action should remain on hold pending further judicial proceedings.

The decision further delays Obama’s immigration order, which was first blocked by a Brownsville, Texas lower court judge in February.

The plaintiffs, all states led by Republican governors, said the federal government exceeded its authority in demanding whole categories of immigrants be protected.

Democrat Obama’s administration has said it is within its rights to ask the Department of Homeland Security to use discretion before deporting nonviolent migrants with U.S. family ties.

But the judges’ opinion said the approval rate of Obama’s earlier executive action on immigration, aimed at people brought into the United States as children, was too high to reflect true discretion.

The President blames Congress, whose inability (or refusal) to compromise on the way to passing legislation he says effectively forced his hand in November when he decided to bypass lawmakers in an effort to shield nonviolent immigrants. Now, the same court will decide whether The White House can appeal. 

The 5th Circuit will rule again in the coming months on whether the Obama administration can appeal the block to the executive order. That decision may be made by a new panel of judges and will take into account more evidence.

Immigration advocates have been wary of the prospect that the 5th Circuit, known as one of the most conservative in the nation, would rule with the administration. 

The NY Times has more color:
The lawsuit was filed in December, and on Feb. 16, Judge Andrew S. Hanen of Federal District Court in Brownsville ordered a preliminary injunction on the programs while he ruled on


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Greece Says Creditor Agreement Deal Close, Senior Eurozone Official Says “I Wish it Were True”

Courtesy of Mish.

The curious story of the day is back-to-back reports, minutes apart, by the same news agency, saying different things.

Greece Says has Begun Drawing Up Agreement with Creditors

Here is Reuters headline number one: Greece Says has Begun Drawing Up Agreement with Creditors

Greece and its creditors are starting to draft a technical-level agreement, a government official said on Wednesday, signalling progress in long-running talks to unlock aid for the cash-strapped country.

“At the Brussels Group (of credit negotiators) today procedures to draw up a staff-level agreement are beginning,” the official said, adding that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras would be in constant touch with other leaders to conclude a deal.

The official said the deal would avoid wage and pension cuts, include reform of value-added taxes and include a lower target for a primary surplus in the first year.

The Greek official also cited differences between the EU and IMF as holding up an overall deal and called on the creditors to do their part to ensure a deal was struck.

“There remains a problem with the differing stance among the institutions. If an agreement by the IMF was not needed, the deal would have closed by now,” the official said.

Eurozone Officials Dismiss Greek Comments

Here is Reuters headline number two (actually 8 minutes before the above): Euro Zone Officials Dismiss Greek Comments on Deal Being Drafted.

Greece’s European creditors cannot confirm a statement by Athens that it is starting the process of drafting a technical-level agreement with creditors to secure aid, an EU official told Reuters on Wednesday.

“I wish it were true,” a senior euro zone official said.

Loop of Lies?

It’s vaguely possible no one is lying here, but that’s only possible if the senior eurozone official does not know what is going on.

Another curious aspect is the Greek official blaming the IMF, when actually it is the IMF and not the eurozone creditors that have admitted Greek debt needs another haircut. …



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JPMorgan Warns Greece “Is Not Investable” As Germany Denies Any Deal Progress

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Today’s entire surge in stocks and EURUSD was predicated on nothing more than momentum ignited from rumors of a report that a deal was imminent. So now that Germany has come out and stated – unequivocally – that:

  • *GERMAN GOVT SURPRISED BY GREEK REPORTS OF PROGRESS: OFFICIAL

One might imagine some of the ramp would be removed.. and it is in EURUSD, but not in stocks. However, as JPMorgan warns “hope is not an investment case. The longer we go without a deal, the less likely we believe a deal becomes/the higher the chance of Grexit.”

Rumors…denied…

  • *LITTLE PROGRESS SEEN IN GREECE TALKS, GERMAN GOVT OFFICIAL SAYS
  • *GERMAN GOVT SURPRISED BY GREEK REPORTS OF PROGRESS: OFFICIAL
  • *GERMAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL COMMENTS IN DRESDEN, GERMANY

Talks between Greece and creditors haven’t made much progress on substance, a German government official says on sidelines of Group of Seven meeting in Dresden, Germany.

  • German govt is surprised at comments by Greek officials today that accord is near: official
  • German official asks not to be identified because talks are private

But as JPMorgan warns,

“Greece is dominating the headlines again and we retain our neutral weight within CEEMEA. We would spend our risk budget anywhere but the most volatile market in the region.

Valuations are low (Hellenic Telecommunications Organization (OTE) is at a bigger discount to European telcos than the ’12 Grexit scare), while our economists’ base case remains that a deal is struck to keep Greece in the Euro zone.

We hope that this proves to be the case, but hope is not an investment case. The longer we go without a deal, the less likely we believe a deal becomes/the higher the chance of Grexit.

What’s changed in the last 8 weeks? Not much: bank liquidity, state finances, consumer confidence and business confidence are all declining and non-performing loans are rising while negotiations go on.

*  *  *

And the farce continues…





Buy This Company Quickly For $10 Million Before It IPOs On The Shenzhen Exchange

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Overnight saw yet another dip at the open that was ripped by the close in Chinese markets as Year-to-Date gains for China's Shenzhen Composite now top 105%.

With IPOs rising 500% with no down days, Charles Hugh-Smith unleashes his satirical sword to 'explain' just how idiotic this situation has become, and (as we detailed here) it will get worse…

Of Two Minds could easily be worth $50 million in a matter of months.  

In the event you haven't heard about the stock bubble currently inflating in China, please take a quick look at these two charts of the Shenzhen Composite:

 
 

  This second chart displays the Shenzhen's price-earnings ratio (PE), a widely used measure of fundamental valuation. If a company's stock is worth $100 per share, and its net earnings are $10, it has a PE of 10. If a company's stock is worth $100 per share, and its net earnings are $1, it has a PE of 100.
 
 
 
 As Alan Greenspan noted in his mea culpa for missing the bubble in 2008, you have to keep dancing while the bubblicious music is playing. Why I Didn't See the Crisis Coming: 
 
Almost all market participants were aware of the growing risks, but they also knew that a bubble could keep expanding for years. Financial firms thus feared that should they retrench too soon, they would almost surely lose market share, perhaps irretrievably. In July 2007, the chair and CEO of Citigroup, Charles Prince, expressed that fear in a now-famous remark: “When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.”
 
Financial firms accepted the risk that they would be unable to anticipate the onset of a crisis in time to retrench. However, they thought the risk was limited, believing that even if a crisis developed, the seemingly insatiable demand for exotic financial products would dissipate only slowly, allowing them to sell almost all their portfolios without loss.  
 
The take-away from this is to join the party and offload marginal enterprises at sky-high valuations to greater fools--which is why I plan on listing Of Two Minds as an IPO on the Shenzhen Exchange.  
 
Based on


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Super strong Health care ETF near another breakout!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

sectorperformanceoneyearmay27thCLICK HERE TO ENLARGE

When one looks back over the past year, Health Care ETF (XLV) has been a good place to be. The above table looks at the 9 key sectors of the S&P 500, which reflects that XLV has done really well, grabbing the #1 spot over this time frame. Year-To-Date, XLV remains in the top spot as well.

Can this hot performance continue? Check out the pattern XLV has been forming the past few months

xlvbulloishascendingtrianglemay27CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Over the past 90-days, XLV remains at the top spot as well, up a little over 2%. XLV could be forming a bullish ascending triangle, as it looks to have nearly a flat top and rising bottoms. Two-thirds of the time this pattern leads to higher prices.

The key for XLV at this time is for it to break above the nearly horizontal resistance line. Should it breakout and the pattern read be correct, the measure move would suggest that XLV could push 10% higher quickly.

Premium Membership details can be found  by clicking HERE or below

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To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Need To Manipulate Markets? Just Email The Bank Of England At hammer@bankofengland.co.uk

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Meet Martin "The Hammer" Mallett, chief currencies dealer at the Bank of England in 2007, and, as WSJ reports, recipient of emails that were part of an alleged campaign to rig benchmark interest rates, according to evidence presented in a London trial Wednesday. Remarkably, as we have detailed extensively, the emails were sent out with daily suggestions for where a variety of banks should set Libor. Mallett was later fired for what the central bank described as "serious misconduct," although the bank said his departure wasn’t directly related to the currencies-rigging investigation.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, Martin Mallett, who at the time was the chief currencies dealer at the Bank of England, was among a couple dozen recipients of emails sent in 2007 by brokers allegedly working at the behest of former bank trader Tom Hayes. The recipients were blind carbon-copied on the messages…

In the emails, the brokers sent out daily suggestions for where a variety of banks should set the London interbank offered rate, or Libor. Mukul Chawla, the prosecutor trying Mr. Hayes, said those emails were used in an attempt to skew interest rates for the benefit of Mr. Hayes, at the time a trader in Tokyo at UBS AG.

Mr. Mallett, nicknamed “The Hammer,” was sent the emails at his hammer@bankofengland.co.uk address.

Mr. Mallett left the Bank of England amid an investigation into attempted manipulation of foreign-exchange markets. He was fired for what the central bank described as “serious misconduct,” although the bank said his departure wasn’t directly related to the currencies-rigging investigation. Mr. Mallett, who couldn’t immediately be reached Wednesday, hasn’t previously commented.

A Bank of England spokesman had no immediate comment.

It is unclear why Mr. Mallett was receiving the emails. There is no indication that Mr. Mallett was involved in the alleged Libor manipulation by Mr. Hayes and his brokers.

Mr. Chawla said Wednesday that Mr. Hayes’s employer, UBS, arranged special payments—or “kickbacks”—to the brokers for their assistance.

UBS pleaded guilty to Libor manipulation in 2012.

Mr. Hayes pleaded not guilty to the criminal charges, but hasn’t had the chance to present his defense to the jury. He previously told The Wall Street Journal that “this goes much, much higher than me.”

News organizations covering Mr. Hayes’s trial aren’t currently allowed to


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GeoRGe SoReASS

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.





S&P Ramp Stalls At 50% Retracement (For Now)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Rumored – and denied – reports of an imminent Greek deal spewed momentum into stocks but for now, the 50% retracement level of the high-to-low swing is holding the exuberant equity market back…





News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Regional Fed Manufacturing Surveys for May and the ISM Index (Calculated Risk)

Earlier today the last two regional Fed surveys for May were released. As expected, the Dallas Fed was especially weak due primarily to weakness in the oil sector.

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI

FischerFischer: Fed Rate Hikes May Trigger Global Volatility (Fox Business)

When the Federal Reserve raises U.S. interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade, it should weigh the effects on global economies and can expect some bouts of financial market volatility, a top Fed official said on Tuesday.

"In the normalizing of its policy, just as when loosening policy, the Federal Reserve will take account of how its actions affect the global economy," U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said in Israel. "The actual raising of policy rates could trigger further bouts of volatility, but my best estimate is that the normalization of our policy should prove manageable for the emerging market economies."

Thoughts: The Fed is constrained in just how far they raise rates, so yes they will, but it won't be a massive increase. The world will not fall apart due to that and the increase in interest will not be enough to pull money away from income-producing investments (like dividend paying stocks) anytime soon. 

MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 14% YoY (Calculated Risk)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 22, 2015. …

Mortgage Refinance Index

This grid battery startup is raising funds to ramp up in a competitive market (Forbes)

Meet a young startup with a huge utility deal and a lot of promise.

Tesla is only the most well-known company that’s usinglow-cost batteries and software to potentially change how the power grid operates. There are a half dozen others, and one of those is a startup called Advanced Microgrid Solutions that hopes to raise $18.8 million to


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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Zero Hedge

Obama Loses Immigration Battle As States Block Executive Order

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

On the heels of a tough Senate fight that initially saw Democrats oppose granting fast-track authority on trade deals, President Obama was just dealt a fresh blow related to what some say is another example of Presidential overreach.

As Reuters reports, the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans ruled that an executive order on immigration designed to prevent the deportation of undocumented immigrants will remain on hold as 26 Republican sta...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Greece Says Creditor Agreement Deal Close, Senior Eurozone Official Says "I Wish it Were True"

Courtesy of Mish.

The curious story of the day is back-to-back reports, minutes apart, by the same news agency, saying different things.

Greece Says has Begun Drawing Up Agreement with Creditors

Here is Reuters headline number one: Greece Says has Begun Drawing Up Agreement with Creditors Greece and its creditors are starting to draft a technical-level agreement, a government official said on Wednesday, signalling progress in long-running talks to unlock aid for the cash-strapped country.

"At the Brussels Group (of credit negotiators) today procedures to draw up a staff-level agreement are beginning," the official said, adding that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras would be in constant tou...



more from Ilene

Kimble Charting Solutions

Super strong Health care ETF near another breakout!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE

When one looks back over the past year, Health Care ETF (XLV) has been a good place to be. The above table looks at the 9 key sectors of the S&P 500, which reflects that XLV has done really well, grabbing the #1 spot over this time frame. Year-To-Date, XLV remains in the top spot as well.

Can this hot performance continue? Check out the pattern XLV has been forming the past few months

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Over the past 90-days, XLV remains at the top spot as well, up a little over 2...



more from Kimble C.S.

Chart School

STTG Market Recap May 26, 2015

Courtesy of Blain.

Last week we remarked how the S&P 500 finally had broken out of a multi month range… but then it did little.  Usually once a stock/ETF moves out of a long range it has a pronounced move; but the S&P 500 didn’t – it barely budged.  Today that move collapsed.  The S&P 500 fell 1.03% and the NASDAQ 1.11%.   Most pointed to some vague increase in a chance of a rate hike but this is too much tea leaving – the Federal Reserve has said everything is data dependent.

U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Tuesday that markets should not be surprised by the timing or pace of rate hikes.

In economic news, durable goods for April showed a decline of 0.5 percent, roughly in-line with expectations. Non-defense...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Stocks provide a tepid breakout as Fed greases the skids. So now what?

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Early last week, stocks broke out, with the S&P 500 setting a new high with blue skies overhead. But then the market basically flat-lined for the rest of the week as bulls just couldn’t gather the fuel and conviction to take prices higher. In fact, the technical picture now has turned a bit defensive, at least for the short term, thus joining what has been a neutral-to-defensive tilt to our fundamentals-based Outlook rankings.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the t...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 24th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Pharmboy

Big Pharma's Business Model is Changing

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Understanding the new normal of a business model is key to the success of any company.  The managment of companies need to adapt to the changing demand, but first they must recognize what changes are taking place.  Big Pharma's business model is changing rapidly, and much like the airline industry, there will be but a handful of pharma companies left at the end of this path.

Most Big Pharma companies have traditionally done everything from research and development (R&D) through to commercialisation themselves. Research was proprietary, and diseases were cherry picked on the back of academic research that was done using NIH grants.  This was in the heyday of research, where multiple companies had drugs for the same target (Mevocor, Zocor, Crestor, Lipitor), and could reap the rewards on multiple scales.  However, in the c...



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Digital Currencies

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

 

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

By 

Excerpt:

Bitcoin, the virtual digital currency, has been called the future of banking, a dangerous fad, and almost everything in between, but we're finally about to get some solid data to help settle the debate.

On Monday, the Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock exchange said it would ...



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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: US Dollar

Which way from here?

Chris Kimble likes the idea of shorting the US dollar if it bounces higher. Phil's likes the dollar better long here. These views are not inconsistent, actually, the dollar could bounce and drop again. We'll be watching. 

 

Phil writes:  If the Fed begins to tighten OR if Greece defaults OR if China begins to fall apart OR if Japan begins to unwind, then the Dollar could move 10% higher.  Without any of those things happening – you still have the Fed pursuing a relatively stronger currency policy than the rest of the G8.  So, if anything, I think the pressure should be up, not down.  

 

UNLESS that 95 line does ultimately fail (as opposed to this being bullish consolidation at the prior breakout point), then I'd prefer to sell the UUP Jan $25 puts for $0.85 and buy the Sept $24 call...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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