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Crude Carnage & Hawkish Yellen Leave Dow In The Red For 2015

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

After all the exuberance last week following Janet Yellen's utter confusion, stocks suffered their worst week in months… even with th epanic buying on INTC news and in anticpation of Yellen…

Very quiet last two days… with some excitmenmt from Intel and Yellen at the close…

But futures show the reality of the volatility…

As The S&P 500 was pinned at unchanged YTD (Dow red in 2015)

Energy stocks outperformed (though closed red on the week) but Financials were the worst sector this week, down over 3% – the worst week for financials in 11 months

Biotechs dropped over 6% on the week (with highest volume ever) - the biggest drop since early Oct 2014 (but the swing from last week's highs to this week's lows of over 15% was the biggest in 11 months)

Trannies were worst this week, and suffered their biggest weekly drop in almost 6 months – Trannies are now down since the end of QE3

All down post-FOMC…

This was on course to be the best week for crude since July 2013 until prices collapsed in the last hour or so… ending up 4% – still the best since early Feb.

After 5 straight weeks up… AAPL is down 4 of last 5 weeks

Intel did its best to drag The Dow into the green YTD…

Treasury yields ended the week very modestly higher, rallying all day today…not 5 days in a row of USD selling during EU day session

The US Dollar ended the week lower by around 0.4% led by EUR and Swissy strength…

but Silver and The Russian Ruble remain the best performers against the USD year-to-date…

Copper lost ground as China growth fears spread but PMs rose on weaker dollar and war fears… oil did its crazy thing…

Charts: Bloomberg





FeaTHeReD VaRMiNT…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.





Saudi Arabia Then & Now (In 1 Cartoon)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

“Unintended Consequences”?

Source: Townhall





Housing Contribution To US GDP Lowest In Post-War Era

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In “Underwater Homeowners Here To Stay” we highlighted a report from Zillow which showed that negative equity has now become a permanent fixture of the US housing market. The report also showed that the percentage of homeowners who are underwater was flat from Q314 to Q414, breaking a string of 10 consecutive quarters of declines. We also recently noted that a completely ridiculous new home sales print that defied all logic notwithstanding, housing data, including starts and existing home sales, has come in below expectations. On a side note, home price appreciation has outpaced wage growth at a rate of 13:1, to which we would add: 

Of course, the biggest determinant of home price appreciation over the past 2 years has nothing to do with US consumers, or household formation, as confirmed by the collapse in first-time homebuyers or the unprecedented depression in new mortgage origination, and everything to do with what we first suggested is one of the main drivers of the US housing bubble – foreigners parking their illegally procured cash in the US and evading taxes, now that US housing, with the NAR’s anti-money laundering exemption blessing, is the new normal’s Swiss Bank Account. That and flipping homes from one “all-cash” buyer to another “all-cash” buyer in hopes of a quick capital appreciation and the constant presence of the proverbial dumb money.

Against this backdrop, Deutsche Bank is out predicting that a sluggish US housing market is likely to impact the supply of MBS going forward. As DB notes, housing isn’t the GDP contributor it once was and not by a long shot. Not only that, but when it comes to recoveries, the housing market’s GDP contribution was 7 times below its post WW2 average in year one and has fared even worse since. Here’s DB with more:

The contribution of housing to US GDP continues to run at some of the lowest levels since the end of World War II. New construction of single- and multi-family homes, renovations, broker fees and the like still only make up a bit more than 3% of current GDP, well below the post-war average of 4.7%. Not only has the level of lift from housing come in low, but it has bounced out of the last official recession slowly, too. Housing


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Police Gas Student Protesters In Quebec

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Earlier this week we reported that the Blockupy movement — supporters of which set fire to the streets of Frankfurt earlier this month in an anti-austerity protest timed to coincide with the grand opening of the ECB’s new headquarters — had apparently spread across the Atlantic to the streets of Montreal where students describing themselves as “an association of young communists and anti-capitalists” got tear gassed, sound bombed, and shot with rubber bullets after they failed to provide police with an itinerary as to what they planned to vandalize and when. 

Just days later and aggrieved Canadian students are at it again, this time in Quebec City where hundreds gathered to protest austerity measures like shorter library hours. Here’s more from RT News

Students in Quebec City were sprayed with tear gas by Canadian police after holding an ‘illegal’ gathering to protest the provincial budget. A brief scuffle broke out before law enforcement officers began randomly gassing the demonstrators.

Hundreds of students, some traveling from as far as Montreal, had gathered in front of the National Assembly to protest the Quebec government’s budget, which had been table on Thursday.

The demonstrators wanted to hold a protest in front of the National Assembly to show their disgust at cuts to services such as healthcare on campus and library hours. They were met by a line of riot police in full body armor.

According to reports, this group made the same mistake as the last group by not providing police with an itinerary thus rendering the whole endeavor illegal from the get go and so in the end, the outcome was largely the same: some folks got gassed..





Black Swan 2: This Is “The Next Critical Chapter In The Austrian Banking System Story”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

When it comes to the sweeping of (trillions of) toxic assets until such time as the ECB starts purchasing not only government bonds but equities, bank loans and really anything else that in a normal world would have some “mark to market” value, Europe had a ready answer: bad banks. A tradition which started with Switzerland and the semi-bailout of UBS during the great financial crisis, “bad banks” have been proposed every time there are a few hundred billion in bad assets that need to be swept away or otherwise removed from the the public eye.

In fact, it was just a few hours ago that Spain’s economy minister praised the usefulness of bad banks, which have certainly seen their fair share of use in Spain over the past 5 years.

  • GUINDOS: BAD BANKS USEFUL INSTRUMENT TO CLEAN UP BALANCE SHEETS.

Yes, useful. Until you have a massive blow up like in Austria when several years of avoiding reality exploded in everyone’s face when the Bad Bank meant to fix the mess left after the collapse of Hypo Alpe Adria itself became insolvent, after the horrendous state of its balance sheet could no longer be masked, and creditors were shocked to learn they would foot the bail out, or rather bail in costs thanks to massive debt writedowns.

And since there is never just one cockroach when it comes to hiding Europe’s biggest financial problem, namely trillions in non-performing loans, the question always is: which cockroach is next?

For now the answer, thanks to the ECB’s relentless intervention in all capital markets is hiding, but one proposal comes from Daiwa Capital Markets which suggests to take a long hard look at Austria’s Pfandbriefbank Oesterreich AG.

Here is what Daiwa’s Jakub Lichwa thinks:

  • A relatively low-profile entity in Austria – Pfandbriefbank Oesterreich AG (Pfandbriefbank) – is becoming the next critical chapter in the Austrian banking system story.
  • This all started with the capital shortfall disclosure by Heta Asset Resolution AG (Heta), which prompted the Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) to announce on 1 March 2015 a moratorium on Heta’s debt securities, including €10.2bn of senior unsecured bonds guaranteed by the State of Carinthia. Carinthia has indicated that it does not have either the resources or will to honour these


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Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David’s free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends – “How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week.” Tell David PSW sent you. – Ilene





Syria “Welcomes” Larger Russia Presence

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Following Vladimir Putin's demands for an "immediate cessation of military activities" in Yemen, AFP reports Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's comment during a recent interview that "with complete confidence that we welcome any widening of the Russian presence in the eastern Mediterranean and on Syrian coasts and ports," including the port of Tartus. Amid the Western-backed opposition National Coalition's planned boycott of talks, Assad pointedly remarked, "the negotiating parties must be independent and must reflect what the Syrian people want… people would not accept that their future, their fate, or their rules are decided from outside."

Syria would welcome an increased Russian military presence at its sea ports, President Bashar al-Assad said in an interview with Russian news channels published Friday. As AFP reports,

"I can say with complete confidence that we welcome any widening of the Russian presence in the eastern Mediterranean and on Syrian coasts and ports," including the port of Tartus, Assad said.

"For us, the larger this presence in our neighbourhood, the better it is for stability in this region," he told journalists.

Russia operates a naval base in Tartus along Syria's western shores that includes warships, barracks and warehouses.

Set up under a 1971 security agreement, Moscow has called its Tartus presence "a supply and technical point for the Russian navy".

Assad told the reporters of eight news channels that Russian military support to Syria "has continued" throughout the past four years of war in his country.

He also welcomed Russia's role in hosting a second round of peace talks but said the negotiating parties must not be influenced by external players.

The Western-backed opposition National Coalition which insists on Assad's ouster has announced it will boycott the April 6-9 talks.

"For the success of these talks, the negotiating parties must be independent and must reflect what the Syrian people, with all of their different political views, want," Assad said.

"Today, people would not accept that their future, their fate, or their rules are decided from outside," he said.

"A solution to the Syrian crisis is not impossible — if the Syrian people sit with each other and discuss, then we'll get results," he said.

Assad said Western countries, including the US, France, and Britain, "don't want a political solution" in Syria and were being "hypocritical".

"To


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Government Secrecy At All-Time High

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1194114/images/o-PERMANENT-SECRECY-CANADA-facebook.jpg

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1194114/images/o-PERMANENT-SECRECY-CANADA-facebook.jpg

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1194114/images/o-PERMANENT-SECRECY-CANADA-facebook.jpghttp://www.offshorebankingtoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/banksecrecy.jpg

US Supreme Court Justice Brandeis said:

Publicity is justly commended as a remedy for social and industrial diseases. Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants; electric light the most efficient policeman.

But there’s no longer much sunlight to disinfect the corruption of the government or the powers-that-be.

More and more commonly, the government prosecutes cases based upon “secret evidence” that they don’t show to the defendant … or sometimes even the judge hearing the case.

As just one example, government is “laundering” information gained through mass surveillance through other agencies, with an agreement that the agencies will “recreate” the evidence in a “parallel construction” … so the original source of the evidence is kept secret from the defendant, defense attorneys and the judge.   A former top NSA official says that this is the opposite of following the Fourth Amendment, but is a “totalitarian process” which shows that we’re in a “police state”.

The government uses “secret evidence” to spy on Americans, prosecute leaking or terrorism charges (even against U.S. soldiers) and even assassinate people. And see this and this.

Secret witnesses are being used in some cases. And sometimes lawyers are being prevented from reading their own briefs.

Indeed, even the laws themselves are now starting to be kept secret. And it’s about to get a lot worse.

American citizens are also being detained in Guantanamo-like conditions in Chicago … including being held in secret, with the government refusing to tell a suspect’s lawyer whether his client is being held.   And see this, this and this.

The Department of Defense has also made it a secret – even from Congress – as to the identity of the main …
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Rig Count Decline Reaches 16 Weeks, Pace Of Decline Drops Dramatically

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In 2008/9, the rig count decline 18 weeks straight (dropping 57% overall over a 41 week period). Today’s mere 21 rig decline to 1048 marks the 16th straight week of drops (down 45%) and is the smallest drop in 11 weeks. This is the biggest 16-week decline in rig count in 30 years. Crude is not reacting significantly yet but it appears the limits of efficiency gains before production takes a hit.

  • *U.S. TOTAL RIG COUNT -21 To 1,048 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS
  • *U.S. OIL RIG COUNT -12 TO 813, BAKER HUGHES SAYS

16th week in a row but smallest drop in 2015…

But this is still the biggest 16-week percentage drop in rigs sicne 1986…

A modest reaction so far…

Charts: Bloomberg





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Crude Carnage & Hawkish Yellen Leave Dow In The Red For 2015

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

After all the exuberance last week following Janet Yellen's utter confusion, stocks suffered their worst week in months... even with th epanic buying on INTC news and in anticpation of Yellen...

Very quiet last two days... with some excitmenmt from Intel and Yellen at the close...

But futures show the reality of the volatility...

As The S&P 500 was pinned at unchanged YTD (Dow red in 2015)

...



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Phil's Favorites

In the News, 3-27-15

From Bloomberg 

Economy in U.S. Grew 2.2% in Fourth Quarter on Consumer Spending — The U.S. economy expanded at 2.2 percent annualized pace in the fourth quarter, led by the biggest gain in consumer spending in eight years.

A Physicist Is Building a Time Machine to Reconnect With His Dead Father  — The hour is late.

His scientific papers were published years ago, filled with equations wrought by the energies of a younger man. But at 69, theoretical physicist Ron Mallett still goes to work every day to build a time machine based on his most elegant construct...

[Photo: Amer...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

Raymond James Downgrades Power Integrations To Market Perform

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related POWI Benzinga's Top Downgrades Benzinga's Volume Movers

Analysts at Raymond James downgraded Power Integrations Inc. (NASDAQ: POWI) from Outperform to Market Perform and removed the price target of $57.00.

Power Integrations shares have dropped 18.42% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 index has surged 10.69% in the same period.

Power Integrations' shares fell 1.51% to $51.65 in pre-market trading.

Latest Ratings for POWI DateFirmActionFrom...

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Chart School

Q4 GDP Third Estimate Remains Unchanged at 2.2%

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Third Estimate for Q4 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.2 percent, unchanged from the Second Estimate. Today's number was a minor disappointment for most economic forecasts, which were looking for a somewhat higher Third Estimate. For example, both Investing.com and Briefing.com had forecast of 2.4 percent.

Here is an excerpt from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quart...

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Promotions

Watch Phil on Money Talk on BNN Now!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show last night. As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. (And get this, Obama - the President - is following Phil on Twitter.) ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here. Part 2 is here. Part 3 is here.   ...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls retake the wheel, with a little help from their friends at the Fed

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale at Sabrient Systems

Well, it didn’t take long for the bulls to jump on their buying opportunity, with a little help from the bulls’ friend in the Fed. In fact, despite huge daily swings in the market averages driven by daily news regarding timing of interest rate hikes, the strength in the dollar, and oil prices, trading actually has been quite rational, honoring technical formations and support levels and dutifully selling overbought conditions and buying when oversold. Yes, the tried and true investing clichés continue to work -- “Don’t fight the Fed,” and “The trend is your friend.”

In this weekly update, I give my view of the cur...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March, 23rd, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin vs. Uber: Bitcoin Lovers Respond to Mish

Courtesy of Mish.

I recently commented that it would not surprise me if bitcoin plunged to $1.00. That was not a prediction, it was a comment.

Still, I still feel a collapse in bitcoin is likely.

For discussion, please see Cash Dinosaur: France Limits Cash Transactions to €1,000, Puts Restrictions on Gold; Bitcoin End Coming?

In response, reader Creighton writes ...

Hello Mish

While I'm not going to argue the point about the possibility that Bitcoin drops to $1, or less, (that could happen yet, but not for the reasons you propose) I felt it necessary to point out something you seem to have overlooked.

While it's likely that the US government watching Bitco...



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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

By Ilene 

Chris Kimble likes the iShares MSCI South Korea Capped (EWY), but only if it breaks out of a pennant pattern. This South Korean equities ETF has underperformed the S&P 500 by 60% since 2011.

You're probably familiar with its largest holding, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, and at least several other represented companies such as Hyundai Motor Co and Kia Motors Corp.

...



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Option Review

Cypress Semi Draws Bullish Option Plays

Bullish trades abound in Cypress Semiconductor options today, most notably a massive bull call spread initiated in the July expiry contracts. One strategist appears to have purchased 30,000 of the Jul 16.0 strike calls at a premium of $0.89 each and sold the same number of Jul 19.0 strike calls at a premium of $0.22 apiece. Net premium paid to put on the spread amounts to $0.67 per contract, thus establishing a breakeven share price of $16.67 on the trade. Cypress shares reached a 52-week high of $16.25 back on Friday, March 13th, and would need to rally 4.6% over the current level to exceed the breakeven point of $16.25. The spread generates maximum potential profits of $2.33 per contract in the event that CY shares surge more than 20% in the next four months to reach $19.00 by July expiration. Shar...



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Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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