Archive for the ‘Permissions’ Category

One River CIO “We’re Willing Participants In Our Own Demise”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With the world's focus falling on Beijing this week, where president Xi Jinping give a glowing account of China's future during the 19th Party Congress, boasting that “the banner of scientific socialism with Chinese characteristics is now flying high and proud for all to see," not all are impressed by China's vision of the world in which China sees itself as increasingly taking over from the US as the world's superpower. And it's not just stories about China's neverending behind the scenes bailouts of anything that may telegraph a hard landing for the economy (as decribed in "China's Government Is Expected To Buy 24% Of All Residential Real Estate For Sale In 2017"); it's the country's entire financial system, which Kyle Bass has been shorting for nearly two years now but which he has failed to recognize now holds the entire world hostage: if it goes, so does the global financial system, unleashing a worldwide depression the likes of which have not been seen.

Here is Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Mgmt, explaining why everyone is wrong about the $35 trillion Chinese financial system, and yet how Beijing has figured out a way to become a parasite on the global financial system, resulting in an outcome in which "we’re willing participants in our own demise."

Excerpted from One River's latest Weekend Notes:

“China’s financial system is a hermetically sealed snow globe,” he said. “They’ve built a system to resemble ours on the surface, but scratch it and you discover something altogether foreign.”

China has banks. They lend money. But pierce the patina and you find a vast subsidy machine, with no cold-blooded allocation of capital. There are no defaults to speak of; just bailouts, no reckonings.

“The appearance of a modern financial system allows western financiers to pretend one exists. We are willing dupes in this charade.”

Throughout history failing nations have turned to printing presses to arrest their decline. It has led to ruin. Always.   

But never has an emerging superpower used the printing press to turbo charge growth, dominate industries. The Chinese have reimagined the vast power of fiat. And they’re wielding it to build


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Moody’s Says Hartford Could Default As Early As November

By Gary St. Fleur. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The historic headquarters of insurance giants like Aetna, and Cigna, Hartford Connecticut now faces a potential financial catastrophe.

On Thursday, October 19, it was announce that the likelihood of Hartford Connecticut, to meet its obligations for the month grows continually bleak. Moody’s has produced a press release stating their position that Hartford Connecticut is likely to default by month’s end.


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Hartford Connecticut

Falkenpost / Pixabay

“Our analysis projects operating deficits of $60 million to $80 million per year through 2036, the final maturity of its general obligation debt,” says Nicholas Lehman, a Moody’s AVP. “Fixed costs — including pension contributions, benefits and insurance, and debt service — are driving large projected operating deficits of approximately 11% of revenues.”

The city has a credit rating of Caa3 negative. There is the expectation that the state will need to step in and save the ailing city from continual defaults. This remains an unlikely event considering that Connecticut is the only state in the country to operate without a budget passed by lawmakers. Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy struggles to confront a 3.5 billion two year deficit.

All of this spells a dizzying crisis that has little chance of being resolved without deep cuts being made to Hartford’s budget. In order for this to transpire, there would need to be concessions made by union groups.

“Though the city has reduced its labor force, contractual salary increases and employee benefits are significant contributors to its long-term structural imbalance.”

Moody’s suggest that the state craft legislation that would permit municipalities to enter arbitration for the renegotiation of government employee crisis. Such a bold step would be a determined effort in the right direction to stave off Hartford’s in pending fiscal crisis.

The post Moody’s Says Hartford Could Default As Early As November appeared first on ValueWalk.

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An Evening in Wonderland

 

An Evening in Wonderland

Courtesy of 

 

You walk halfway across Rivington Street and in the middle of the block there’s an alley leading north, and then, inexplicably, it curves northwest. It’s remarkable in that on the Isle of Manhattan there aren’t any alleys. And this one is whimsical. Lights are strung overhead and artwork decorates the sides of the buildings as you make your way through. And then, at the end of Freemans Alley, you come to a tucked away restaurant in the back corner. It’s called Freemans (what else?).

If the setting for last night’s crypto currency summit was quirky, the conversation was downright otherworldly. The rules for how things work in the crypto realm are being written in real time. We pick up a phrase or a bit of terminology, and we begin to use it authoritatively moments later – as though we’d been doing so our whole lives. We’re hanging onto people’s words who’ve become experts in a thing that didn’t exist just a few years ago.

For a couple of hours I had stepped into Wonderland, the moveable center of the crypto currency universe. Seemingly everyone who purports to understand what’s going on is up in this second-floor private dining room. I have a feeling this event will be remembered and talked about for a long time in certain circles.

Among the three dozen or so attendees – traders, investors, engineers, thought leaders, hedge fund managers and fintech entrepreneurs. The event’s organizer, my pal Patrick O’Shaughnessy, is the common thread linking us all together. Only he could have brought this group together. “We’re overbooked tonight,” he tells me. “When I sent out the invites, not a single person said no!” Patrick’s three-part podcast, Hash Power, is probably the most important document of this moment of time. Everyone in the crowd was deferentially quoting from it. Many of the people there had appeared on it themselves.

A panel discussion led by four of the most important voices on crypto currencies in the country ensues. We


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7 Thoughts On Blockchain, Cryptocurrency, & Decentralization After Another Three Months Down The Rabbit Hole

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Lou Kerner via HackerNoon.com,

Everyone’s ADD, including me. I get attracted by shiny objects. I first noticed Bitcoin as a shiny object in mid-2013. I went down the rabbit hole far enough for The Wall Street Journal to call me “Wall Street’s Bitcoin expert” while they live blogged a Bitcoin conference call I hosted. I invested in ChangeTip. I bought and sold BitcoinWallet.com. Unfortunately, by late-2014, nine months in to a severe Bitcoin price decline, my focus wandered to new shiny objects.

Fast forward to 2017, and my mind wandered to a new shiny object, ICOs. Once again, I got the four smartest people I could find on the topic, and held a conference call on June 29th during which I had my crypto epiphany.

Crypto is now so shiny, so luminous, I can’t divert my eyes. I’m living and breathing crypto 24/7. Reading every thoughtful post I can find. Meeting anyone thoughtful on the topic. Holding more crypto conference calls. And writing and writing on crypto, because that’s the best way to learn.

After 3 months going down the rabbit hole a second time, here’s what I learned…

1. I’m A One Eyed Man In The Land of Other One Eyed People

We’re still so early, that much about what people are saying and writing about crypto is more theory than fact. Lots of people (including me) compare the the crypto bubble to the Internet bubble. But the parallels between the development of crypto and the development Internet are everywhere I look. Take this snippet from Wikipedia’s “History of the Internet’’:

“With so many different network methods, something was needed to unify them. Robert E. Kahn of DARPA and ARPANET recruited Vinton Cerf of Stanford to work with him on the problem. By 1973, they had worked out a fundamental reformulation, where the differences between network protocols were hidden by using a common internetwork protocol…..”

As a non-techie,


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Ethics by numbers: how to build machine learning that cares

 

Ethics by numbers: how to build machine learning that cares

Courtesy of Lachlan McCalmanData61

File 20171016 27761 j268yk.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

We need to build algorithms that act ethically. BEST-BACKGROUNDS/Shutterstock

You may have heard that algorithms will take over the world. But how are they operating right now? We take a look in our series on Algorithms at Work.


Machine learning algorithms work blindly towards the mathematical objective set by their designers. It is vital that this task include the need to behave ethically.

Such systems are exploding in popularity. Companies use them to decide what news you see and who you meet online dating. Governments are starting to roll out machine learning to help deliver government services and to select individuals for audit.

Yet the algorithms that drive these systems are much simpler than you might realise: they have more in common with a pocket calculator than a robot from a sci-fi novel by Isaac Asimov. By default, they don’t understand the context in which they act, nor the ethical consequences of their decisions.

The predictions of a machine learning algorithm come from generalising example data, rather expert knowledge. For example, an algorithm might use your financial situation to predict the chance you’ll default on the loan. The algorithm would be “trained” on the finances of historical customers who did or did not default.

For this reason, a machine learning system’s ethics must be provided as an explicit mathematical formula. And it’s not a simple task.

Learning from data

Data61, where I work, has designed and built machine learning systems for the government, as well as local and international companies. This has included several projects where the product’s behaviour has ethical implications.

Imagine a university that decides to take a forward-looking approach to enrolling students: instead of basing their selection on previous marks, the university enrols students it predicts will perform well.

The university could use a machine learning algorithm to make this prediction by training it with historical information about previous applicants and their subsequent performance.

Such training occurs in a very specific way. The…
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City of Scranton loses landmark case regarding unlawful taxation

By Gary St. Fleur. Originally published at ValueWalk.

On Wednesday, Oct 18, 2017, Judge Gibbons ruled against the city of Scranton,PA establishing a potential precedent for the entire state of Pennsylvania. The lawsuit in regard to whether or not Scranton is subject to the Act 511 cap that imposes a limit on how much taxes the city of Scranton can collect on the local level. The plaintiffs, a group of citizens including Mayoral candidate Gary St. Fleur, alleged that the city of Scranton has been over taxing the people of Scranton for the past 10 years. The current year has an overage of $10 million dollars. Judge Gibbons has stated that:


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Scranton

tpsdave / Pixabay

“Whether it does is immaterial because Act 511 clearly and indisputably applies to the City of Scranton…Act 511 denies Scranton the right to repeatedly levy and collect taxes in excess of its prescribed cap without taking further steps”

 

“As such, we will not change our conclusion that the Home Rule Charter Law is subservient to Act 511”

In other words, the city of Scranton is unquestionable subject to Act 511. This means that the recovery plan is a farce and bankruptcy is an inevitably. Furthermore, tax payers will be liable for refunds for any taxes paid in excess of the cap for the past three years. The potential cost to the city will be upwards of $50 million dollars.

Background:

The City of Scranton is currently over the cap and is expected to exceed the cap by $10 million according to its current budget. Mr. St. Fleur wants the courts to put a stop to this immediately.

On August 4th, Judge Gibbons ruled against the city in…
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Trump Extends Feud With “Wacky Wilson” To Sixth Day, Says Fake News “Finally Sinking In”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In a relatively tame by his weekend standards Twitter outburst, President Trump on Sunday again ripped into Rep. Frederica Wilson, extending his feud with the "wacky" Florida Democrat into its sixth day, over the contents of his call to the widow of a fallen U.S. soldier. "Wacky Congresswoman Wilson is the gift that keeps on giving for the Republican Party, a disaster for Dems. You watch her in action & vote R!" Trump tweeted.

Wacky Congresswoman Wilson is the gift that keeps on giving for the Republican Party, a disaster for Dems. You watch her in action & vote R!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 22, 2017

It was the second straight day in which Trump referred to Wilson as "wacky" following up to a Saturday tweet, when he said he hopes the "Fake News Media" keeps talking abut Wilson, whom he claimed is "killing the Democratic Party."

I hope the Fake News Media keeps talking about Wacky Congresswoman Wilson in that she, as a representative, is killing the Democrat Party!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 21, 2017

Trump has continued to push back against Wilson's claims, who previously said she was in the car with the widow of Army Sgt. La David Johnson when Trump called and in which she said Trump told the soldier's widow that he "knew what he signed up for…but when it happens it hurts anyway." On Thursday, Trump accused Wilson of lying about the content of the call after "secretly" listening in. Chief of staff John Kelly last week also gave an  emotional press conference in which he said he was "stunned" by Wilson's negative description of the call. "I would have thought that was sacred," Kelly said during last week's press conference.

In his second tweet, Trump said media organizations have “lost cred,” pointing to a recent poll that found almost half of voters think the media make up stories about him.

“It is finally sinking through. 46% OF PEOPLE BELIEVE MAJOR NATIONAL NEWS ORGS FABRICATE STORIES ABOUT ME. FAKE NEWS, even worse!” Trump tweeted. “Lost cred.”


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Is Capitalism Dead or Merely Dying?

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth



Alfred Wertheimer Elvis 1956

New Zealand’s new prime minister Jacinda Ardern calls capitalism a blatant failure. Former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis says capitalism is ‘merely’ coming to an end because it is making itself obsolete. Mathematics professor Bruce Boghosian claims that without redistribution of wealth, our market economy would not be stable, because wealth always tends to concentrate. The people at Artemis Capital Management write that the stock market has begun self-cannibalizing like a snake eating its tail, and the only reason we’re not in a recession already is ‘financial alchemy’.

At the very least we can say that the system is under pressure. But what system is that? It would be nice to have a clearcut definition of capitalism, but alas, there are many, about as many as there are different forms of it. That doesn’t make this any easier. Americans call many European economies ‘socialist’, which seems to mean they are not capitalist. But Scandinavian countries don’t function like the Soviet Union either.

And if you see how much money is involved in transfer payments to citizens in the US, the supposed bastion of free market capitalism, it’s tempting to conclude the system has already failed. But even with transfer payments, inequality is at record levels. That would seem to confirm Boghosian’s statement that “even if a society does redistribute wealth, if it’s too small an amount, “a partial oligarchy will result..” So what then?



Varoufakis and others want a “universal basic dividend”, or “universal basic income”. Would that be the end of capitalism as we know it? Or is it just a -perhaps more extreme- form of ‘state capitalism’? Varoufakis deems it inevitable because technology will eradicate so many jobs from societies that people won’t be able to make money from work. Personally, I’ve long thought that the pending large-scale demise of pensions systems will lead to some form of UBI.

37-year-young Jacinda Ardern Is very clear in her assessment of New Zealand’s form of capitalism. If you’ve got the worst homelessness in the developed world, you have a broken system. If the system fails the people, it’s no good. Other people might argue that capitalism…
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Exit Polls Project Sweeping Victory, Supermajority For Japan’s Abe

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As widely expected, Japan Prime Minister Abe's ruling coalition is set for a sweeping victory in Sunday's general election, and may retain the two-thirds parliamentary majority needed to revise Japan's constitution, according to an NHK exit poll.

Shinzo Abe during an election campaign rally in Tokyo, on Oct. 21

Shortly after polls closed at 8pm, an NHK exit poll showed that Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito are set to win between 281 and 336 seats of the 465 total, boosting Abe's chances of becoming Japan's longest serving political leader: the Prime Minister needs 233 for a simple majority and 310 for a supermajority. Opposition parties are set to split the rest, with the left-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party projected to come in second. Actual results are now being counted.

NHK also projected the leftwing Constitutional Democratic party winning 44 to 67 seats, with upstart Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike’s Party of Hope taking 38 to 59 seats.

The exit polls are in line with the most recent media seat projections, shown below:

Source: Nikkei, Mainichi, Asahi, Kyodo, Goldman Sachs

The vote took place as a typhoon lashed Japan on Sunday, threatening to damp voter turnout for the election that was widely forecast to give Abe a fresh mandate to pursue economic revival and bolster the nation's military.  Super Typhoon Lan is one of the strongest to hit Japan in years with heavy rain expected across much of the country. The Japan Meteorological Agency issued severe weather warnings for floods, wind damage and landslides. The typhoon is projected to make landfall near Tokyo on Sunday night.

A substantial win for Abe’s coalition would pave the way for more ultra-easy monetary policy and flexible fiscal stimulus that has allowed Japan – Asia’s second-biggest economy – to grow for 6 straight quarters, if only on paper. It would also give President Trump a stable partner in pushing a hardline stance against Kim Jong Un’s regime in North Korea. The LDP is due to hold a leadership election next September. If Abe runs and wins again, he could stay on as prime minister until 2021, according to Bloomberg.

Ever the opportunist,


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Trump To Allow Release Of 3,000 Never Before Seen Documents On JFK Assassination

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following years of delays, President Trump announced on Twitter on Saturday morning that he will allow the release of more than 3,000 of classified documents from the FBI, CIA, and Justice Department on the assassination of John F. Kennedy. The unexpected announcement means that a trove of previously unseen documents will be released by the National Archives by October 26.

“Subject to the receipt of further information, I will be allowing, as President, the long blocked and classified JFK FILES to be opened,” Trump tweeted.

Subject to the receipt of further information, I will be allowing, as President, the long blocked and classified JFK FILES to be opened.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 21, 2017

In 1992, Congress mandated that all assassination documents be released within 25 years, unless the president asserts that doing so would harm intelligence, law enforcement, military operations or foreign relations. The still-secret documents include more than 3,000 that have never been seen by the public and more than 30,000 that have been released previously, but with redactions, according to CBS. Trump's decision means that thousands of formerly classified documents related to Kennedy’s assassination will be unveiled next week in compliance with the President John F. Kennedy Assassination Records Collection Act of 1992, which states that the federal government must release them by Oct. 26, 2017.

JFK scholars hope the new documents may provide insight into assassin Lee Harvey Oswald's trip to Mexico City weeks before the killing, during which he visited the Soviet and Cuban embassies. Oswald's stated reason for going was to get visas that would allow him to enter Cuba and the Soviet Union, according to the Warren Commission, the investigative body established by President Lyndon B. Johnson, but much about the trip remains unknown.

Among other protected information slated for release are details about the arrangements the U.S. entered into with the Mexican government that allowed it to have close surveillance of those and other embassies, said Tunheim, a federal judge in Minnesota. Jefferson Morley, a former Washington Post reporter who has written extensively about the Kennedy assassination papers, said the remaining documents might include files on senior


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Phil's Favorites

Will the Supremes Save Democracy From Minority Rule?

 

Will the Supremes Save Democracy From Minority Rule?

Courtesy of  and

This post first appeared on BillMoyers.com.

The Supreme Court now has the power to put a decisive end to extreme gerrymandering — if Justice Anthony Kennedy and the four liberal-leaning justices can craft a clear and manageable standard to identify when partisan mapmakers go too far.

But what if it doesn't? What happens if Kennedy sides with the conservative justices, who in the oral arguments for ...



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Zero Hedge

One River CIO "We're Willing Participants In Our Own Demise"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With the world's focus falling on Beijing this week, where president Xi Jinping give a glowing account of China's future during the 19th Party Congress, boasting that “the banner of scientific socialism with Chinese characteristics is now flying high and proud for all to see," not all are impressed by China's vision of the world in which China sees itself as increasingly taking over from the US as the world's superpower. And it's not just stories about China's neverending behind the scenes bailouts of anything that may telegraph a hard landing for...



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ValueWalk

Moody's Says Hartford Could Default As Early As November

By Gary St. Fleur. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The historic headquarters of insurance giants like Aetna, and Cigna, Hartford Connecticut now faces a potential financial catastrophe.

On Thursday, October 19, it was announce that the likelihood of Hartford Connecticut, to meet its obligations for the month grows continually bleak. Moody’s has produced a press release stating their position that Hartford Connecticut is likely to default by month’s end.

]]> Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues

...

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Digital Currencies

An Evening in Wonderland

 

An Evening in Wonderland

Courtesy of 

 

 

You walk halfway across Rivington Street and in the middle of the block there’s an alley leading north, and then, inexplicably, it curves northwest. It’s remarkable in that on the Isle of Manhattan there aren’t any alleys. And this one is whimsical. Lights are strung overhead and artwork decorates the sides of the buildings as you make your way through. And then, at the end of Freemans Alley, you come to a tucked away restaurant in the back corner. It’s called Freemans (what else?).

If the setting for last night&rs...



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Chart School

Gold Cycle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Why has gold not fallen below $1000 (well so far), what is the golden canary telling us?

Previous Posts:
SP500 Kitchin Cycle says trouble brewing - Update
SP500 How much higher ?

In short, the old heads out there know there is a ying for a yang! Currently the SP500 screaming higher, massive debt, low very !VIX. But as well all know this wont last forever, and the flip side could be very scary. Hence the hedge into metals, and building of the 4.5 year gold base, and as a ...

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Insider Scoop

There Could Be 109% Upside In uniQure As Company Advances Gene Therapy Into Clinical Trials

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related QURE 32 Stocks Moving In Friday's Mid-Day Session Wall Street's M&A Chatter From October 19: Uniqure, Ulta, Sally Beauty,...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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Biotech

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Courtesy of Sally Ferguson, CQUniversity Australia

Today, the “beautiful mechanism” of the body clock, and the group of cells in our brain where it all happens, have shot to prominence. The 2017 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Jeffrey C. Hall, Michael Rosbash and Michael W. Young for their work on describing the molecular cogs and wheels inside our biological clock.

In the 18th century an astronomer by the name of Jean Jacques d'Ortuous de Ma...



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Members' Corner

Day of Last Dances

News today has been relentlessly terrible. A horrific mass murder happened last night in Las Vegas. (Our politician's abject failure to address gun control is beyond sickening.) And today, reports that Tom Petty died of a heart attack, followed by reports that Tom Petty is not dead, and now reports confirming that Tom Petty has passed away. 

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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