Archive for the ‘Permissions’ Category

Pershing: Despite Recent Vol shares of Fannie & Freddie “will be worth a multiple of their current price”

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Pershing Square latest presentation slides

Also see 2017 letters

Ackman ’16 Letter On Fannie: “Various Scenarios” of “a … – V

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

26

?Superb restaurant brand that pioneered the “fast casual” category with the success of its outstanding product offering, unique culture, and powerful economic model

?Founded by Chairman and CEO Steve Ells in 1993

?High quality, simple, predictable, unlevered, free-cash-flow-generative business

?Recovering from food safety issues beginning in the fourth quarter of 2015 which caused a peak decline in average unit sales of 36%(1)

?We are currently Chipotle’s second largest shareholder with a ~10% ownership stake in the company

We believe that the Chipotle brand is still in its growth phase with significant opportunity to increase its unit count and its average unit volume. The drivers of this growth include:

“Fast Casual” category growth

?Mobile and online opportunity

?Catering opportunity

?Unit growth opportunity

?Potential for significantly more units in the U.S. than the current store base of approximately 2,200

?Compelling returns on capital for new units even at today’s lower sales levels

……….

Despite significant share price volatility since the 2016 US elections, we believe the shares of a reformed Fannie and Freddie will be worth a multiple of their current price

……..

Perry Case Development: In February, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a lower court ruling against shareholder plaintiffs, concluding that the FHFA has broad discretion as conservator and refusing to invalidate the Net Worth Sweep

?We believe that the approximate one-third decline on the day of the ruling was a market overreaction:

?Various appeals options are available to the Perry plaintiffs

?Several other legal cases, including the Court of Federal Claims case under Judge Sweeney, continue to proceed favorably

FNMA and FMCC: Perry Case Developments

Irrespective of court case developments, we believe reform and restructuring of Fannie and Freddie are likely to occur:

?We do not believe there is a viable alternative that can preserve the prepayable 30-yr fixed rate mortgage at a reasonable cost

?US Treasury warrants for ~80% of the common stock of Fannie and Freddie would be worthless if the entities are eliminated

,,,,,,,,,,,,

Organizational Updates in March 2017

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?Over 10 years at the firm Tim has been responsible for…
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How Polish Zookeepers Defied German Occupation And Saved 500 Jewish Lives

By The Foundation for Economic Education. Originally published at ValueWalk.

One possible gift to come from the mass bloodshed of 20th century totalitarianism: perhaps the history will serve as a lesson for the future. If that is to happen, however, we need to know the history, and not avoid it, much less deny it.

To make sure we understand – that we care about what is in fact a historical abstraction for the current generation – increasingly falls to the filmmakers. This is the medium by which people today discover a past they did not experience.

Zookeepers

By Benchill (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 or GFDL], via Wikimedia Commons
Zookeepers

It is just too easy to look away. Few people travel to the nation’s capital with the ambition to tour the Holocaust Museum, for example. I totally get it. But out of all the exhibits in this city, this is the one that offers the most powerful lesson about human rights and dignity, and the existential threat of centralized power, as well as a warning against the politics of violence and where it leads. 

The Holocaust Museum stands there as a rebuke to a sin you did not commit, a horror you see no need to face, evidence of a blight on humanity from which you would rather avert your eyes.

Yes, everyone needs the message. At the same time, hardly anyone really wants to come face to face with the full expression of horror and evil that the Holocaust represents, and what it meant for Europe and the so many millions of victims. It is more comforting to spend time at the monuments to greatness, virtuous leaders, and war victories, however much these traffic in mythology.

Why learn about death camps that killed millions when you can use your time to admire monuments to bravery in war? The Holocaust Museum stands there as a rebuke to a sin you did not commit, a horror you see no need to face, evidence of a blight on humanity from which you would rather avert your eyes.

Denial Is a State of Mind

This is why “Holocaust Denial” is not just the designation for a gaggle of self-publishing cranks and Nazi apologists. It is a general tendency that everyone possesses to look away from a history that is
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France Is ‘Fixed’? – Credit Risk Collapses Most In History

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

French credit risk has collapsed by almost 40% this morning - the most ever – as it appears investors are satisifed that 1) Macron will win the presidency, and 2) Centrist banker/Hollande-lackey Macron will solve all of France’s problems.

Notably, European VIX has plunged (back to historical norms absolutely and relative to US VIX)

FX market risk has crashed back to historical norms too…

But while the so-called “le spread” also plunged from EU crisis highs…

It does remain somewhat elevated from recent norms… Perhaps all is not ‘solved’ by a Macron win?





Swing trading portfolio – week of April 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.</p></body></html>

 





Why The Crude Rally Has Fizzled – Part 2

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by James Bambino via Platts blog,

This is the second of a three-part look at why oil prices have failed to rally despite OPEC’s best efforts at managing supply cuts. Read part 1 here.

So, why is everyone so bullish?

Many oil analysts take as a fait accompli that OPEC-led production cuts thus far are key to balancing the crude market. If this is the case, though, why hasn’t it happened yet?

But the bulls say give it time. In the long run, the market will balance.

Everyone knows what Keynes said about the long run (that we are all dead).

That the market is prime for a rally has become gospel truth. But isn’t something so paradigmatic just a little bit risky?

“Oil prices will get better, and you can take that to the bank,” David Purcell, head of macro research at Tudor, Pickering and Holt, said at a recent Dallas conference.

“The market is under-supplied, inventories are back to normal levels by the end of the year, and if you guys don’t drill the Permian too fast, we’re okay,” Purcell said.

But drilling too fast is just what drillers have been doing. According to Platts Analytics RigData, active Permian horizontal rigs now stand at 280, 40% of all US horizontal drilling. The number of US horizontal rigs will likely break above 700 soon, revisiting a number last seen in April 2015, when Permian rigs made up just 25% of the total.

Permian looking increasingly profitable

Calling for $60/b by the year’s end, FGE Chairman Fereidun Fesharaki said at a Fujairah bunkering conference last month that recent price pessimism was overdone and that financial players in the short term were misreading the market.

Many of the banks have been driving this home as well.

While Credit Suisse analysts earlier this month conceded that both Atlantic Basin and Asia-Pacific crude markets are suffering from oversupply — widening price discounts for Asian grades like Russia’s ESPO Blend and Qatar’s Al-Shaheen can attest to that — they also say that it is too early to ditch the idea that just because prices have struggled, the market isn’t rebalancing.

Russia's Asian grades have suffered

Vietnam differentials down sharply

Malaysian differentials down as well

In fact just two weeks ago, they suggested doubling down.

A key factor to that call, which by now


continue reading





China Threatens Retaliation To Trump’s Steel “Protectionism”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Days after Donald Trump signed an executive order to probe steel imports, mostly from China, Beijing responded warning such a move could trigger a trade dispute between the United States and its major trading partners, who are likely to take retaliatory steps, the official China Daily said in an editorial on Monday.

“By proposing an unjustified investigation into steel imports in the guise of safeguarding national security, the U.S. seems to be resorting to unilateralism to solve bilateral and multilateral problems,” the China Daily said. The probe could result in efforts by the United States to curb imports that will affect the interests of a number of its major trade partners, including China, the editorial warned.

“If the U.S. does take protectionist measures, then other countries are likely to take justifiable retaliatory actions against U.S. companies that have an advantage … in fields such as finance and high-tech, leading to a tit-for-tat trade war that benefits no one,” it said.

The article called on the United States, the world’s top economy, to use the settlement mechanism under the World Trade Organization to resolve the dispute over steel. Reducing imports will not alter the weak competitiveness of U.S. steelmakers, help restore U.S. manufacturing or bring back jobs, as President Trump hopes, it said.

As Reuters puts it, “the article was the strongest official response yet to U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday launching an investigation of China and other steel producers for dumping cheap steel products into the United States.”  It was a marked shift from official comments on Friday. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said in a briefing the country needed to ascertain the direction of any U.S. investigation before it could make a judgment.

In addition to China, in Japan, the world’s second-biggest steel producer after China, the head of its steelmakers’ group expressed concern over Trump’s protectionist policy.

“We are greatly concerned over Trump’s protectionism, although we hear he has softened his tone on some issues with a grasp of reality,” Japan Iron and Steel Federation chairman Kosei Shindo told a news conference on Monday.

* * *

Separately, in a parallel move yet one which appears to justify Trump’s threat to curb Chinese steel imports, 29 Chinese steel firms had their licenses revoked as Beijing kept


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Fear Index tanking, after hitting this resistance!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the VIX (Fear Level) over the past few years. A rally had taken place in the VIX, driving it up to falling resistance and its 50% retracement level at (1), in the chart below.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

We shared the chart above last week on Twitter last week (See Here)  One of the reasons Premium and Sector members bought XIV, was due to this pattern and a seasonal pattern in stocks (strong the last two weeks of April). The VIX index is down nearly 40% in the past week, following hitting resistance at (1). Members this morning are pulling up stops to protect gains.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.





Border Wall Showdown: Team Trump Threatens Government Shut Down Over ‘Beautiful’ Wall

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

President Trump and Congress have until this Saturday to strike a budget deal or face a government shut down.  Not surprisingly, Trump decided to kick off what will undoubtedly be a week of tense negotiations with some opening shots across the bow via Twitter:

ObamaCare is in serious trouble. The Dems need big money to keep it going – otherwise it dies far sooner than anyone would have thought.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 23, 2017

The Democrats don’t want money from budget going to border wall despite the fact that it will stop drugs and very bad MS 13 gang members.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 23, 2017

Eventually, but at a later date so we can get started early, Mexico will be paying, in some form, for the badly needed border wall.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 23, 2017

The Wall is a very important tool in stopping drugs from pouring into our country and poisoning our youth (and many others)! If

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 24, 2017

Throughout his campaign Trump touted several policies which would require massive increases in government spending including his infrastructure plan, new military funding and the border wall.  That said, at least in this round of Congressional bickering, it looks like the border wall will be key issue which could leave 1,000s of federal government employees with a little extra paid vacation time in 2017.

As negotiations continue, the White House says it has offered to include $7 billion in Obamacare subsidies that allow low-income people to pay for health insurance in exchange for Democratic backing for $1.5 billion in funding to start construction of the U.S.-Mexico border wall. Congressional negotiators have also offered to cut back Trump’s proposed $30 billion increase in defense spending.

“The question is, how much of our stuff do we have to get? How much of their stuff are they willing to take?” budget director Mick Mulvaney said on Bloomberg Television. “We’d offer them one dollar” of Obamacare payments, he added, “for one dollar of wall payments right now.”

Democrats called Mulvaney’s Obamacare offer a


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Measuring Hard and Soft Power in a Potential War With North Korea

By FinancialSense. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The following  on North Korea  and kim jong un is a summary of our recent interview with Jacob Shapiro, which can be accessed on our site here or on iTunes here.

Recently, we’ve seen markets pull back a bit, and many are citing geopolitical tensions, and particularly the recent saber-rattling between the United States and North Korea, as likely culprits.

This time on FS Insider, Jacob Shapiro, Director of Analysis at Geopolitical Futures (GPF), joined us for an in-depth update on current geopolitical events and to provide their analysis on North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, US-China political dynamics, Europe, and more.

North Korea China War Trump kim jong un

Public_Domain_Photography / Pixabay

Rumors of Wars

Though the rhetoric from both sides has been alarming in recent weeks — culminating in North Korea’s apparently failed attempt to test a nuclear device — it’s important to keep in mind that North Korea is still controlled by a regime that will do all that it can to retain control over its populace, Shapiro noted.

“It is the world’s last remaining totalitarian state,” he said. “When you’re thinking about North Korea, the first thing you always have to keep in mind is that regime survival is going to be the most important thing.”

The issue troubling President Trump now is the threat level posed by Kim Jong Un potentially gaining possession of a deliverable nuclear weapon. As Shapiro says, this is a “red line” that the US won’t allow North Korea to cross:

While there are many reasons to think this a ruse, Shapiro noted, we can’t base foreign policy on wishful thinking.

Tensions were extremely high this past weekend during the 105th birthday celebration of Kim Il Sung, the now deceased “supreme leader” of the North Korean regime, as North Korea threatened a nuclear bombing on the US while conducting a missile test.

Ultimately, though, the missile test failed and tensions were eased somewhat. Uncertainty still persists, however.

Winners and Losers

The United States wants to avoid direct action in North Korea, Shapiro said, and is leaning on China to help resolve the issue.

The quandary President Trump faces is that he promised tough action regarding trade policy with China. Now, the geopolitical pressure of the North Korean issue presents a big problem for his tough rhetoric.

“The winner in all of this is China,


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The Rise of New French Gaullism

By Dan Steinbock. Originally published at ValueWalk.

After the first round of the French  elections , “center-right” Macron and “radical right” Le Pen are positioned for a face-off. However, the real story of the election is that Le Pen’s agenda has shifted the political landscape toward new French Gaullism.

At the eve of the French election, A gunman opened fire on the Champs-Élysées, killing a police officer and wounding others, while the Islamic State claimed responsibility. Meanwhile, US observers explain the rise of Le Pen on the basis of the French industrial decline, while German observers see France sandwiched between extremists on the Left and the Right.

What both ignore is French frustration with the failed policies of both the pro-EU conservatives and socialists – and with US efforts to shape their electoral outcomes.

Before the vote, the leader of the Front National Marine Le Pen and the centrist Emmanuel Macron garnered about 23-25% in the polls. The two were followed by the center-right François Fillon (19%), whose ratings have been penalized by a funding scandal, and the radical left Jean-Luc Mélenchon (19%), whose ratings soared leaving behind socialist Benoît Hamon (9%), who failed to unite the left.

Since no candidate garnered absolute majority in the first round, the second round is critical.  With 75% of polling stations results in, Macron was leading (24%) with Le Pen (22%) close behind. Conservative Fillon was penalized by his public scandal; socialist Hamon by President Hollande’s socialists’ failures; and the left’s Mélenchon by the absence of institutional support.

Marine Le pen victory? French Elections Macron Marine Le Pen France Gaullism Macron

Le pen victory? By Gauthier Bouchet (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Public facades versus financial interests in French election

Emmanuel Macron’s (40) stint in President Hollande’s socialist government as a business-friendly economy minister alienated most socialists while failing to win over most conservatives. As I have argued through the spring, French right, the business and conservatives can tolerate him as a unifying figure; media will portray him as a “centrist”; and Washington wants him in Elysee Palace. But in reality, he does not represent “center-right.”

Macron advocates a Clintonesque, Blairian “Third Way.” Yet, his platform movement En Marche! is a one-man’s façade, which is guided by Institut Montaigne’s corporate giants, including commercial real estate titan Unibail-Rodamco, banking behemoth BNP Paribas, and aerospace mammoth Safran. En Marche! is funded mainly by…
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ValueWalk

Pershing: Despite Recent Vol shares of Fannie & Freddie "will be worth a multiple of their current price"

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Pershing Square latest presentation slides

Also see 2017 letters

Ackman ’16 Letter On Fannie: “Various Scenarios” of “a … – V

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
26
?Superb restaurant brand that pioneered the “fast casual” category with the success of its outstanding product offering, unique culture, and powerful economic model
?Founded by Chairman and CEO Steve Ells in 1993
?High quality, simple, predictable, unlevered, free-cash-flow-generative business
?Recovering from food safety issues beginning in the fourth quarter of 2015 which c...



more from ValueWalk

Zero Hedge

France Is 'Fixed'? - Credit Risk Collapses Most In History

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

French credit risk has collapsed by almost 40% this morning - the most ever - as it appears investors are satisifed that 1) Macron will win the presidency, and 2) Centrist banker/Hollande-lackey Macron will solve all of France's problems.

Notably, European VIX has plunged (back to historical norms absolutely and relative to US VIX)

...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Fear Index tanking, after hitting this resistance!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the VIX (Fear Level) over the past few years. A rally had taken place in the VIX, driving it up to falling resistance and its 50% retracement level at (1), in the chart below.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

We shared the chart above last week on Twitter last week (S...



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Digital Currencies

BDC's Crypto Corner

Hello fellow PSW-ers, it's biodieselchris here. I've been an interested in cryptocurrencies (informally, "cryptos" or "coins") since 2011 when I first heard about Bitcoin, Since that time I've become somewhat of a subject matter expert and personal investor in Bitcoin and other alternative cryptocurrencies ("altcoins"). I have even started one of my own!

I've been posting comments about cryptos in Phil's daily post from time to time. Recently, Phil and I got on a call and he asked if I would like to run a blog on his site specifically about cryptos, which I thought was a great idea. My goal would be to educate members on what I know about how coins work, how I research coins (what I find interesting), how exactly one can invest (buy, hold, and sell) coins and a basic, easy-to-follow general how-to on all things crypto. In addition, other members have expressed an interest in learning more directly i...



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Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Now's a great time to be a stock picker (Business Insider)

Companies in the S&P 500 are moving independently of one another to an extent rarely seen, and that's good news for stock pickers.

The World’s Advanced Economies Should Think Twice About Curbing Migration (Bloomberg)

Analysis of United Nations data by Fitch Ratings shows halting immigration would drastically reduce the potential working population of Group-of-Seven nations, leaving aging societies more dependent on a smaller labor force and resulting in greater f...



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Chart School

The Tax Cuts are Coming! It's the Stock Trader Weekly Recap.

Courtesy of Blain.

Forgetting the traditional market news, as we began last week both the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were at critical support.  A rally Monday showed those support levels held, giving bulls breathing room.  We’ll discuss this more below after we get through the more fundamental news items that transpired.   Traders seemed to breath easier on Monday seeing no escalation with North Korea and came in ready for a bit of a relief rally.

The lack of a nuclear test from North Korea over the weekend did much to reverse defensive positions adopted by traders heading into the weekend, said Ian Winer, director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities.

It was a very heavy week of S&P 500 type earnings with banks leading the way in the first half of the week. Then a series of large sized companies ac...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Wall Street gears up for busiest earnings week in years (Reuters)

Corporate America is set to unleash its biggest profit-reporting fest in at least a decade next week, with more than 190 members of the S&P 500 index .SPX delivering quarterly scorecards, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices data.

Draghi Says ECB Hasn’t Seen Evidence of Durable Eurozone Infl...



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Members' Corner

Should I buy that stock?

Courtesy of Phil Stasukaitis (pstas)

I was asked by my local investment club to do a presentation on "how to buy a stock?" As I pondered the question, I began by noting all the elements that I monitor regularly and which come in to play as part of my decision process. As the group is comprised novices to experts, I tried to gear my discussion to cover both basics and more advanced concepts.

Four Part Discussion

  1. Macro Economic Indicators
  2. Market Indexes
  3. Fundamental Analysis
  4. Technical Analysis

1. Macro Economic Indicators

We'll start with reviewing some basic concepts and measurements that have direct effects on the stock market. 

A. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

...

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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Biotech

CAR-T & CRISPR - the Future is Now

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members....it has been a while since my last post, but since many have all been on the board following the chat, it is time for a scientific lesson in a few of the companies we are long.  In addition, another revolution is coming in the medical field, and it will be touched upon as well.

CAR-T - stands for Chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and the T is for T-cell.  

From the picture above, T-cells are one cell type of our immune system that fight off infection as well as they are one player at keeping rogue cells from becoming cancerous. Unfortunately, cancer somehow evades the immune system and so it begins.

CAR-T came along in the late1980s via a brilliant scientist, Zelig Eshhar...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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