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Thrilling Thursday – Will Jackson Hole Give us S&P 2,000?

SPY 5 MINUTEI could take today off.  

Why?  Because I already wrote this article last month, on a Thursday, when the S&P was at 1,988 and topped out at 1,991, which was $199.06 on SPY and, as you can see from Dave Fry's chart, SPY topped out at $199.16 yesterday (before plunging back to $198.90 on strong volume into the close).  

Will this time be different?  I certainly hope so because last time, we plunged about 5%, back to 1,904 over the next 10 sessions and it's taken us another 10 to claw our way back for another attempt at an all-time high.

In our Live Member Chat this morning, we shorted the run-up in the Futures at Dow 16,990 (/YM), S&P 1,985 (/ES), Nasdaq 4,045 (/NQ) and Russell 1,155 (/TF) because, as I said to our Members:

I'm sorry but I simply can't reconcile this news with what's going on in the markets so I'm going to continue to lose money hedging to make sure we keep what we have.  The alternative is going to cash but there is simply no way I can endorse getting more bullish on this market at this point.  

NDX WEEKLYOne major difference this time is we DON'T have money flowing out of SPY (as much), as we did last month and we DO have the Fed's Jackson Hole conference tomorrow, which looks to Global Investors like a Santa Claus convention with Yellen, Draghi, Carney and Kuroda sitting under the spruce trees with gigantic bags of FREE MONEY – and that's why traders are as giddy as kids before Christmas this week.

But, Virginia, is there really a Santa Claus, or are the bulls hopes and dreams about to be crushed by cruel economic realities they have, so far, been avoiding like the plague (or Ebola)?  Realities like China's horrific PMI this morning, that dropped from 51.7 to 50.3 (barely positive) and France's PMI, which is back in heavy contraction at 46.5 this morning.  Retail Sales in the UK were up just 0.1% vs.…
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Japan PMI “Strongest Since March”: Does That Mean “Strong”?

Courtesy of Mish.

The spin in media reporting, in both directions (but typically bullish), is pervasive.

Here is a case in point. Markit reports Japan PMI Points to Strongest Manufacturing Expansion Since March.

Does “strongest since March” mean “strong”?

Here are the Key Points:

  • Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI™ at 52.4 (50.5 in July). Modest improvement in growth registered in August.
  • Flash Japan Manufacturing Output Index at 53.2 (49.8 in July). Output increased at solid pace.

A few charts will put this into perspective.

click on chart for sharper image

It seems to me that Japan has been treading water above and below the 50-50 expansion-contraction line for years (mostly below since 2007).

Will this surge prove to be more lasting than any of the others?

If so, please don’t credit Abenomics. Instead, I propose the recovery is due to trend exhaustion, in spite of Abenomics.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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China Manufacturing PMI Treads Water

Courtesy of Mish.

Chinese manufacturing is once again treading water, barely above contraction according to the HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI.

Key points

  • Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 50.3 in August (51.7 in July). Three-month low.
  • Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 51.3 in August (52.8 in July). Three-month low.

click on chart for sharper image


Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said …

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI moderated to 50.3 in August, down from 51.7 in July. Both domestic and external new orders rose at slower rates compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, disinflationary pressure returned as input and output prices contracted over the month. Today’s data suggest that the economic recovery is still continuing but its momentum has slowed again. Therefore, industrial demand and investment activity growth will likely stay on a relatively subdued path. We think more policy support is needed to help consolidate the recovery. Both monetary and fiscal policy should remain accommodative until there is a more sustained rebound in economic activity.”

Mish Translation of Comments

China PMI has gone nowhere. The last uptick Qu raved about is now in the ashcan. Thus, Qu wants more “policy support” AKA loose money from the China central bank to “consolidate the recovery“.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock 

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3 Hot Takeover Targets In The Food And Beverage Industry

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Coca-Cola's (NYSE: KO) announcement last week that it had acquired a $2.15 billion, 16.7 percent stake in Monster Beverage (NASDAQ: MNST) pairs the biggest soda company in the world with the biggest energy drink brand in the United States.

Investor Reaction Positive

The deal, two years after the two companies almost struck a similar deal, was positively received by shareholders of both companies as well as investors who helped boost stock prices shortly after the announcement.

Related Link: Will Publix Try To Acquire Whole Foods?

Keurig Green Mountain

Coke’s latest acquisition follows the company’s initial 10 percent stake in coffee company, Keurig Green Mountain for $1.25 billion. Coke later bumped its stake up to 16 percent.

Both companies have been working together to develop a machine that will let consumers make their own Coke-branded soda.

Who’s Next?

Monster and Keurig are not the only food and beverage companies potentially ripe for investment or acquisition; Coca-Cola isn't the only major player poised to take action.

So who's next?

1. Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB)

Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway already owns a 50 percent share of ketchup maker, Heinz. Bloomberg suggested the Omaha Oracle might also be interested in soup maker Campbell if the price was right.

With a negative Sell rating and price target downgrade by Goldman Sachs, not to mention an Underweight designation by Morgan Stanley, Forbes made a similar suggestion as recently as July.

2. SABMiller (OTC: SBMRY)

Following InBev’s $52 billion takeover of Anheuser-Busch six years ago, talk that Anheuser-Busch InBev could make a play for another major rival has been a…
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UPDATE: Target Lowers Full-Year Earnings Outlook, Shares Slip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Shares of Target (NYSE: TGT) dropped more than 1.6% in pre-market trading after the company cut its forecast for the year and reported a drop in its second-quarter earnings.

For the year, the company now projects earnings of $3.10 to $3.30 per share, versus its earlier forecast of $3.60 to $3.90 per share. It also expects Q3 earnings of $0.40 to $0.50 per share, versus analysts’ estimates of $0.66 per share.

The Minneapolis, Minnesota-based company posted quarterly earnings of $234 million, or $0.37 per share, compared to $611 million, or $0.95 per share, in the year-ago period. Excluding certain items, Target’s earnings fell to $0.78 per share from $0.98 per share.

Its sales rose 1.7% to $17.41 billion. However, analysts were expecting earnings of $0.79 per share on revenue of $17.38 billion.

Transactions slipped 1.3% in the quarter, while sales at stores open for at least a year came in flat in the quarter.

“While results from the quarter didn’t meet our expectations, we are seeing some early signs of progress as we work to improve results in the U.S. and Canada,” said John Mulligan, executive vice president and chief financial officer of Target.

Target shares dropped 1.65% to $58.27 in pre-market trading.

Posted-In: profitEarnings News Guidance

Junipers Divests Junos Pulse For $250M

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Junos® Pulse Divestiture

Today, Juniper Networks also announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Junos Pulse product portfolio to Siris Capital for approximately $250 million. Siris is a leading private equity firm focused on making control investments in data, telecommunications, technology and technology-enabled business service companies. Juniper and Siris have agreed to continued support of customers and partners through the transition. Juniper’s sale of Pulse is consistent with the Company’s overall strategy outlined in its Integrated Operating Plan (IOP) and further aligns the Company’s security products to where its customers and the market is heading with High-IQ networks and building the next-generation of clouds.

Posted-In: News Asset Sales Press Releases

CBS Corp. Doubles Authorized Buybacks; Q2 Net Sinks 4%

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS) second-quarter net earnings from continuing operations fell nearly four percent and the company doubled its stock buyback authorization to $6 billion.

Adjusted earnings per share beat the Wall Street consensus and increased from a year earlier because of the effects of share repurchases.

Second-quarter revenue fell 5.3 percent compared with the 2013 second quarter, when revenue benefited from benefited from the timing of TV licensing and the semifinals of an NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship.

Entertainment revenue fell 8.4 percent to $1.84 billion from $2.01 billion a year earlier on lower licensing and advertising sales.

Cable Networks revenue was nearly flat at $516 million.

Local Broadcasting revenue dropped 4.7 percent to $665 million from $698 million in the same prior-year period, because of slower advertising sales.

Publishing revenue grew 11 percent to $211 million from $189 million a year earlier, driven by higher print book sales. Digital sales equaled 25 percent of the unit’s total sales.

CBS posted net income from continuing operations of $439 million, or $0.72 cents a share, compared with $472 million or $0.70 cents a share a year earlier. Revenue fell to $3.19 billion from $3.37 billion.

Adjusted income per share was $0.78 cents, up from $0.75 a year earlier. Analysts expected adjusted income of $0.71 cents.

CBS changed hands recently after hours down 2.4 percent at $55.55.

Posted-In: Earnings News Buybacks After-Hours Center

Depomed Prevails Against Actavis In Gralise Case

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Shares of Depomed (NASDAQ: DEPO) are trading sharply higher following news of a favorable court ruling versus competitor Actavis (NYSE: ACT).

The docket from the case showed a judge ruled in favor “on all claims and counterclaims pending in this litigation.” The effective date of any FDA “approval with respect to Actavis’s ANDA that is the subject of this lawsuit shall be no earlier than the last expiration date of the 280, 962, 927, 989, 756, 332 and 992 Patents.”

A mid-day release from Depomed has since confirmed what the docket showed.

The news propelled the stock, which had been trading lower before the news hit, to rise nearly 16 percent to $15.11, before settling back down to $14.72, still up 11.8 percent on the day.

Posted-In: News Legal Movers

Qualcom Trades Up After Hours On FQ3 Beat; Buy-Back Plan

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Qualcomm Inc. (Nasdaq: QCOM) shares gained nearly five percent after-hours Wednesday after fiscal third-quarter results beat expectations and the company said it will buy back $1 billion in shares in the current period.

The communications products company also offered a fourth-quarter forecast below expectations, but raised its full-year outlook based on the buyback plan unveiled Wednesday.

Adjusted profits rose 35 percent from a year earlier to $2.47 billion or $1.44 a share, on revenue growth of 9 percent to $6.81 billion.

Wall Street expected earnings of $1.22 a share on revenue of $6.52 billion.

Qualcomm expects fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.20 to $1.35 a share, on revenue of $6.5 billion to $7.4 billion. Analysts expect $1.39 a share on revenue of $7.15 billion.

A continuing investigation of Qualcomm’s business practices in China by a government agency there will hurt results, the company said. Also it said certain license holders in China aren’t reporting their sales to Qualcomm.

For fiscal 2014 it raised its outlook for adjusted earnings to $5.21 to $5.36 a share, from $5.05 to $5.25 a share, including effects of the buyback. Wall Street expects $5.17.

In the recent quarter, MSM chip shipments rose 31 percent to 225 million units; total device sales grew three percent to $58.1 billion and 3G/4G device shipment totaled 250 million to 254 million units.

In after-hours trading, Qualcomm was up 4.77 percent to $77.71.

Posted-In: Earnings News Guidance Buybacks After-Hours Center

Cameron Announces Sale Of Centrifugal Compression Business For ~$850M

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Cameron (NYSE: CAM) has announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Centrifugal Compression business to Ingersoll Rand (NYSE: IR) for cash consideration of approximately $850 million, subject to closing adjustments.

The decision to divest the Centrifugal Compression division was made after a careful review of Cameron’s long-term business strategy to increase its focus on its core markets. The Company’s goal has been to identify a buyer that is more closely aligned with Centrifugal Compression’s broad and global markets.

Cameron expects to complete the sale of its Centrifugal Compression business prior to year end, subject to regulatory approval. The Company estimates after tax proceeds from the sale to be approximately $600 million, and expects the net proceeds to support stock repurchases. In 2013, the Centrifugal Compression division had revenues of $396 million. The results of operations of the Centrifugal Compression business will be reported as discontinued operations beginning in the third quarter of 2014.

Jack Moore, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cameron stated, “The leadership team at Ingersoll Rand is impressed with the people, technology and performance of the Centrifugal Compression division and sees a strong strategic fit for their business. I’d like to thank our Centrifugal employees for their many contributions to Cameron and wish them well at Ingersoll Rand.”

Citi is acting as financial advisor to Cameron and Winston & Strawn and Baker Botts are acting as the Company’s legal counsel in connection with the divestiture of the Centrifugal Compression business.

Cameron is a leading provider of flow equipment products, systems and services to worldwide oil, gas and process industries. For more information, visit

This document includes forward-looking statements regarding the Company’s strategy. These statements are made in reliance upon the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual events…
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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is."

Thank you for you time!


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Japan PMI "Strongest Since March": Does That Mean "Strong"?

Courtesy of Mish.

The spin in media reporting, in both directions (but typically bullish), is pervasive.

Here is a case in point. Markit reports Japan PMI Points to Strongest Manufacturing Expansion Since March.

Does "strongest since March" mean "strong"?

Here are the Key Points:

  • Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI™ at 52.4 (50.5 in July). Modest improvement in growth registered in August.
  • Flash Japan Manufacturing Output Index at 53.2 (49.8 in July). Output increased at solid pace.

A few charts will put this into perspective.


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Zero Hedge

Ferguson Tonight: Thunder Storms, Peaceful Protests, "Go Kill ISIS And Leave Us Alone" - Live Feed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

One glimpse at the ominous clouds approaching Ferguson this evening was enough to suggest the end of the world was approaching but for now peacfeul protesters are once again walking (not allowed to stand) chanting "No Justice, No Peace" amidd dramatic lightning storms. The weather, for now, appears to have subdued the crowds but one protesters banner proclaiming "Go kill ISIS and leave us alone" caught our eye. Police presence is evident but not forceful for now as protesters proclaim "We want justice, here's your peace" suggesting tensions are de-escalating.


Live Feed:


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Chart School

Daily Market Commentary: Semiconductor Gains Accelerate

Courtesy of Declan.

It was more of the same from the Semiconductor index: a solid gain which took the index ever closer to 652 resistance. All of which is helping the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 maintain their push to all-time highs. Technicals for the Semiconductor Index are net bullish.  Weakness will offer itself as a buying opportunity, particularly at the breakout line and/or 50-day MA. Risk can be measured from the 38.2% fib retracement at $616.25.

The Nasdaq took a small loss, but 4,485 should be strong support. Losses back to this level will also offer a buying opportunity. A decisive undercut of 4,485 would switch to a 'bull trap', but that is not today's problem.

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Option Review

Elizabeth Arden Put Option Activity Revisited

It’s an ugly day for investors in Elizabeth Arden, with shares in the name losing roughly one-quarter of its value overnight after the retailer of beauty products and fragrances reported a wider than expected loss and sales that were lower than analysts anticipated. Shares in the name are down more than 23% in the final hour of trading to stand at $14.95.

On Friday of last week we wrote a short note about put option activity on the stock...

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Sector Detector: Bullish investors jockey for position as if the correction is over

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

As many investors enjoy the final weeks of summer, some optimistic bulls seem to be positioning themselves well ahead of Labor Day in anticipation of a fall rally. Indeed, last week’s action was impressive. After only a mere 4% correction, investors continued to brush off the disturbing violence both at home and abroad, and they took the minor pullback as their next buying opportunity. But was that really all the pullback we’re going to get this year? I doubt it. But I also believe that nothing short of a major Black Swan event can send this market into a deep correction.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then ...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of August 18th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

The Stock World Weekly Newsletter is ready to go! View it here: Stock World Weekly. Just put in your user name and password, or take a free trial. 


#120692880 / ...

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Market Shadows

Helen Davis Chaitman Reviews In Bed with Wall Street.

Author Helen Davis Chaitman is a nationally recognized litigator with a diverse trial practice in the areas of lender liability, bankruptcy, bank fraud, RICO, professional malpractice, trusts and estates, and white collar defense. In 1995, Ms. Chaitman was named one of the nation's top ten litigators by the National Law Journal for a jury verdict she obtained in an accountants' malpractice case. Ms. Chaitman is the author of The Law of Lender Liability (Warren, Gorham & Lamont 1990)... Since early 2009, Ms. Chaitman has been an outspoken advocate for investors in Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC (more here).

Helen Davis Chaitman Reviews In Bed with Wall Street. 

By Helen Davis Chaitman   

I confess: Larry D...

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Digital Currencies

BitLicense Part 1 - Can Poorly Thought Out Regulation Drive the US Economy Back into the Dark Ages?

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton.

An Op-Ed piece penned by Veritaseum Chief Contracts Officer, Matt Bogosian

This past weekend (despite American Airlines' best efforts), Reggie and I made it to the Second Annual North American Bitcoin Conference in Chicago. While there were some very creative (and very ambitious) ideas on how to try to realize the disruptive Bitcoin protocol, one of the predominant topics of discussion was New York Superintendent of Financial Services Benjamin Lawsky's proposed Bitcoin regulations (the BitLicense proposal) - percieved by many participants at the event as an apparent ...

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Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...

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See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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