Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

I got a story to tell

 

I got a story to tell

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker 

2011.

I’m in a brownstone converted into an office somewhere in Manhattan. There’s a random dog walking around. Everyone who works there is under thirty except for the woman who founded the “wealth management” firm. She is over 60, having spent her career as a financial advisor. I met her filming something at the Nasdaq for WSJ. “Come by my office, let’s talk shop,” she tells me. So I come, and the dog sniffs me.

“What’s your strategy?” I ask her. I’m truly curious. This is the period between establishing my own practice and launching our own firm. I am open to new ideas from everywhere.

She goes into this whole story about how she gets involved with charities in Connecticut or Westchester and shows up with the hors d’oeuvres, which she makes herself. And I’m like What the hell are you talking about? Then I realize as she answers me. She’s talking about her marketing strategy, not her investment strategy. She doesn’t have an investment strategy, yet there are hundreds of millions invested with her. Because she’s great at showing up at charity events with pigs in a blanket and talking her nonsense.

I realize she is just faking it. All of it. Meeting people, sizing them up and telling them what they want to hear.

A young man pops into the conference room and says “Market closes in 5 minutes, what do you want to do with this TZA?” He is asking about an ETF that trades at a 3X inverse to the Russell 2000 index intraday. It’s 2011, so it’s not so strange that I know what this is. Everyone still thinks the market is headed to zero and trades accordingly. Still, it seems like a ludicrous position for an alleged wealth manager.

“Hold onto it overnight,” she tells the kid. I don’t quite remember but I think his name was Glen.

She didn’t look at a TZA quote or a news report or anything. This is clearly a 100% feelthing. She is managing money by making it up as she goes along. The goddamn dog is roaming around under…
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Temperature Tantrum Tuesday – Planet Earth Attacks Trump’s Properties

Image result for trump climate change20-50 years.  

Not hundreds of years, not even 100 years but "20-50 years" is how long we have before the oceans are 3 feet higher than they are today.  New studies of Pine Island Bay in Antartica have cause climate scientists (the 97% that say Global Warming is real and actually happening) to drastically revise their estimate of how quickly this planet is headint towards catastrophe.  

The glaciers of Pine Island Bay are two of the largest and fastest-melting in Antarctica. Together, they act as a plug holding back enough ice to pour 11 feet of sea-level rise into the world’s oceans — an amount that would submerge every coastal city on the planet.  Minute-by-minute, huge skyscraper-sized shards of ice cliffs crumble into the sea, as tall as the Statue of Liberty and as deep underwater as the height of the Empire State Building.  

“Ice is only so strong, so it will collapse if these cliffs reach a certain height,” explains Kristin Poinar, a glaciologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. “We need to know how fast it’s going to happen.”

In the past few years, scientists have identified marine ice-cliff instability as a feedback loop that could kickstart the disintegration of the entire West Antarctic ice sheet this century — much more quickly than previously thought.

  • Three feet of sea-level rise would be bad, leading to more frequent flooding of U.S. cities such as New Orleans, Houston, New York, and Miami. Pacific Island nations, like the Marshall Islands, would lose most of their territory. Unfortunately, it now seems like three feet is possible only under the rosiest of scenarios.
  • At six feet, though, around 12 million people in the United States would be displaced, and the world’s most vulnerable megacities, like Shanghai, Mumbai, and Ho Chi Minh City, could be wiped off the map.
  • At 11 feet, land currently inhabited by hundreds of millions of people worldwide would wind up underwater. South Florida would be largely uninhabitable; floods on the scale of Hurricane Sandy would strike twice a month in New York and New Jersey, as the tug of the moon alone would be enough to send tidewaters into homes


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Rogue State

 

Rogue State

How the guardians of nationhood conspire in its destruction.

By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 18th November 2017 (Brexiters, beware: if the ties that bind us unravel, tyranny may soon follow)

What is this country we are asked to love? This might once have been an easy question to answer. National identity was built around a range of institutions, considered to represent the national interest. Rebellion against them was characterised as treason. But one by one, these institutions have been subverted from within. Look to the top to see treachery at work.

The most obvious – and most trivial – example is the way in which the Crown has used investment vehicles based in offshore secrecy regimes to enhance its wealth. The Paradise Papers show that both the Queen’s investors (the Duchy of Lancaster) and Prince Charles’s private estate (the Duchy of Cornwall) have been conducting their affairs beyond the view of government. If the Crown mocks its own agencies in this way, why should anyone else respect them? But this, by comparison to other recent revelations, is froth.

Priti Patel’s engagements in Israel, which culminated in her professed intention to divert British aid money to the Israeli army in the occupied Golan Heights, raised the question of whose national interests she was representing, the United Kingdom’s, or Israel’s? It’s a question that could be directed at several British ministers and their departments. The governments of Saudi Arabia and the United States frequently appear to benefit from British decisions that seem more attuned to their interests than to ours. Brexit is likely to exacerbate this tendency.

We were promised that in leaving the European Union we would regain our sovereignty. But in abandoning an association based on equal standing, we expose ourselves to coercion by other nations. Our relationship with the United States, especially under the stewardship of the trade secretary Liam Fox, is likely to look like that of servant and master.

Fox, preposterously, is now the only official member of the UK’s board of trade. The new trade bill grants him Henry VIII powers: enabling him to create laws without parliamentary approval. It was published 24 hours after the consultation on the bill ended, which suggests…
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Monday Market Movement – Dead Week Ahead

Why are you here? 

I told you it was going to be a pointless, slow week.  You need to take advantage of these things and take vacations.  Surely you didn't become a trader so you could be chained to a desk all day, right?  Get out there and have some fun, the market will still be here when you come back.  

We took a quick $338 per contract profit off the table already on our oil shorts and that's a nice $3,380 on 10 contracts to fly us down to Florida and have a big old turkey dinner with the family and THAT is why I like being a trader – just a little bit of work for a lot of reward (after putting in years and years of hard work and practice, though).  Still, the point is you have to learn to enjoy yourself, that's why our tag-line is: "High Finance for Real People – Fun and Profits."  If you're not having any fun – what good are the profits? 

Related imageAs I noted in our Portfolio Reviews last week, we're trying to emphasize the LONG-term investing strategies.  Futures trades like the one above are fun but they are a lot more fun when you KNOW you have a good collection of stocks working for you 24/7 to keep new money pouring in.  In the case of our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP), we're collecting $50,000 a year in dividends alone and we just added another dozen big dividend-paying stocks to our Watch List.  

Our Portfolios have been pretty much locked in neutral since October, with only our Buttefly Portfolio putting up big returns because it's already self-hedging and doesn't really care whether the market goes up, down or sideways.  If I had to trade just one strategy the rest of my life – that would be the one I'd pick (though I'd be SO bored!).  Boredom is why we play the Futures.  Good trading is BORING – it's supposed to be boring as you grind out steady, consistent gains.  If your tading is exciting, you are probably doing it wrong…

One of our Memberships at PSW is our Top Trade Alert and we've sent out 6 Alerts in the
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Weekend Reading

New Weekend Reading:

We Were Warned (Anthony Doerr, NY Times)

Twenty-five years ago this month, more than 1,500 prominent scientists, including over half of the living Nobel laureates, issued a manifesto titled “World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity” in which they admonished, “A great change in our stewardship of the earth and the life on it is required if vast human misery is to be avoided and our global home on this planet is not to be irretrievably mutilated.”

They cited stresses on the planet’s atmosphere, forests, oceans and soils, and called on everybody to act decisively. “No more than one or a few decades remain,” the scientists wrote, “before the chance to avert the threats we now confront will be lost.”

The Shocking Math of the Republican Tax Plan (, The New Yorker)

If it gives us nothing else positive, the Republican tax plan—and, in its Senate form, the health-care repeal—at least provides clarity. There is no debate. The middle class will, in the long run, pay more in taxes than under current law, and the rich will pay less. For a brief moment last week, there did seem to be space for discussion, in the form of a disagreement between the centrist and highly regarded Tax Policy Center and the Tax Foundation, a pro-business group that is generally seen as more biased. Even if poorly matched, having two groups with similar, boring names set the stage for the appearance of a two-handed tax debate. One side says it helps the rich, hurts everyone else, and will lead to a bigger deficit; the other side says the opposite. Our media and political system has long viewed economic policy—and, especially, taxation—as the equivalent of “American Idol.” There is a group of judges, loudly disagreeing, and the home audience can pick whichever side they like, based on whatever criteria they have. In past tax-news cycles (2001, 1993, 1990, 1986 . . . ), there were enough serious, respected economists on both sides to make it seem like there was a real, substantive fight over the impact of taxes on jobs and economic growth. (While each individual economist appears to know everything with certainty, as a group, they are surprisingly unsure of the impact of taxes on a


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‘Hot potato’ shows why workers won’t benefit from Trump’s corporate tax cut

 

'Hot potato' shows why workers won't benefit from Trump's corporate tax cut

Courtesy of Steven PressmanColorado State University

File 20171117 19250 19mgss2.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Who will be left holding the potato? Nobuhiro Asada/Shutterstock.com

Many children have played hot potato, a game in which they pass a spud to other children quickly so they don’t get stuck with it when the music stops.

Taxes are like that potato. No one likes paying them; everyone tries to pass them to others. The game of hot potato sheds some light on the debate over Republican tax cutting plans, particularly when it comes to companies.

The House just passed its tax cut bill. It would give about two-thirds of roughly US$1.5 trillion in net tax cuts over the next decade to businesses, mainly by lowering the corporate income tax rate to 20 percent from 35 percent. That puts a lot of money on the table. About $100 billion in U.S. corporate profits would be retained by companies rather than paid to the government each year.

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has claimed that most of this tax savings would go to workers, in the form of higher wages, in line with the president’s argument that the plan would benefit the middle class.

With the help of hot potatoes, let me explain why he’s wrong.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin holds up a sheet of $1 bills, the first bearing his name, as his wife Louise Linton looks on. AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

Why workers won’t gain

There are two ways a corporate income tax cut can trickle down to workers’ pockets: directly through higher wages or indirectly via lower prices at stores selling the things they buy.

Mnuchin contends that workers currently bear 70 percent of the corporate tax burden – or get stuck with 70 percent of the corporate tax hot potato. So, a tax cut would mean that companies pass much of their tax benefits to their employees by paying them more or by cutting prices and increasing the buying…
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Fearless Friday – Markets Head into the Holidays at All-Time Highs

Image result for winter vacation cartoonNext week is nonsense

In the US, Thanksgiving is Thursday and the markets are closed and many people take the whole week off and almost everyone is in vacation mode by Wednesday and Friday (a half-day on Wall Street) is a total joke for those who show up – often the lowest volume day of the year.  So we don't expect much action next week and certainly not a move higher and then, after Thanksgiving it's Christmas time and then New Years so let's just meet back here on Jan 2nd and see where things are, OK? 

We've been reviewing our porfolios in our Live Member Chat Room and we're well-locked in neutral already with very little gained in the past month but that's OK, as the market has made very little gains in the past months.  In fact, our last Portfolio Review was October 28th and the S&P closed that Friday at 2,581 and, this morning, we're at 2,585 so – happy holidays – see you in Januray!  

If you do insist on hanging around, you can expect more of the same in December – unless the Trump Tax Plan fails to pass the Senate, then we are likely to break below the range.  At the moment, as we've discussed before, most people are holding their equities (including us) into next year, so we can take our profits when the taxes are lower.  If no one is willing to sell (and take high-tax profits), then the new buyers are forced to offer higher prices and the market does drift higher but the low volumes indicate it may be very hard to find buyers once people do want to cash in their gains. 

There are good strategies for locking in gains and I'll tell you a few.  Apple, for example, is at $171 and let's say you bought 1,000 shares for $120 ($120,000) and you have a $51,000 gain.  If you take that gain now, you will be taxed, for example, 38.5% ($19,635) but if you wait and next year you pay just 25% ($12,750) you are saving almost $7,000.  So your 1,000 shares of AAPL would have to fall more than $7 (4%) for it to be…
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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 11-15-17

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

Major Topics:

00:01:59 Checking on the Markets
00:03:44 AAPL
00:04:11 EXE
00:06:45 SQ
00:09:33 DFS
00:16:20 GNC
00:18:03 GE Chart
00:27:06 FTR
00:31:16 Checking on the Markets
00:32:13 GILD
00:40:25 TSLA
00:46:30 Pivot Points
00:49:25 SGYP
00:58:20 Big Chart
01:02:08 S&P 500
01:21:17 Watchlist update
01:38:19 NLY
01:47:13 Portfolio Review
01:51:38 GE Trade Ideas

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!

 





$450M Thursday – A Least It’s a Nice Frame

Image result for Salvator Mundi.$450,000,000!  

That's a lot of money to spend on a painting and yet another justification for my daughter to go to art school!  It just goes to show you how rich the rich are gettin as the previous record for a painting at auction was $300M for Kooning's "Interchange" 2 years ago and this painting was previously purchased in 2013 for "only" $127.5M – how's that for inflation?  So, on this trajectory, we're only a few years away from the first Billion-Dollar painting – just in time for Madeline to graduate with her art degree!  

The buyer is mystery but look for a guy with a 26" space on his wall – that's probably him.  That's right, this is a pretty small painting but it is cool that it was painted by DaVinci 500 years ago though how they prove that, I can't say.  There was a VanGough that went for "only" $81.3M that I liked better – and it's more in my price range.

This is an indicator of how drastic income inequality is becomming in the US.  There was a roomful of people yesterday, bidding hundreds of Millions of Dollars on a painting while their pet Congresspeople are screaming to the cameras that these art lovers need massive tax breaks in order to "create jobs".  In order to give the art lovers these tax breaks, we have to give up our nacent universal health insurance, we have to cut Medicare, cut Student Loan Funding and cut Farm Subsides – all while taking on $1,500,000,000,000 in additional debt (minimum), which is enough money to buy 3,000 more paintings!  

Going long Sothebey's (BID) might be the best way to play along at home because all this money we, The People are scrificing is going to just 3M of our fellow citizens in the Top 1% and this chart is old as they now control 50% of the wealth in this country – and guess where they took the other 10% from?

wealth3

That extra blob of green on the chart is what was cut off from the top of the top 90% and it belongs to the Top 97, 98 and 99th percentiles and yes, a
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How Silicon Valley industry polluted the sylvan California dream

 

How Silicon Valley industry polluted the sylvan California dream

Courtesy of Jason A. HepplerUniversity of Nebraska Omaha

File 20171027 2402 15ejnas.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Aerial view of San Jose, California, 2016. Gordon-Shukwit, CC BY-NC-ND

On Labor Day 1956, a caravan of moving trucks wound their way into Santa Clara County, just south of San Francisco, carrying the possessions of 600 families and equipment for the missile and space labs of the Lockheed Corporation. One month later, Lockheed’s Sunnyvale campus opened for business. Many of the arriving families were relocating to Sunnyvale from the company’s facility in Burbank, in Southern California.

The draw included good jobs in the emerging businesses of electronics research and development, as well as manufacturing of semiconductors and other electronic components for machinery and computers. Affordable housing, a pastoral landscape and a pleasant environment proved very attractive for newcomers. Local boosters, corporate executives and new residents alike envisioned a modern future in stark contrast with the declining dirty urban industrial model of the Northeast and Midwest.

This type of industrial work and manufacturing didn’t need smokestacks, large warehouses, or other markers of the industrial age. The Santa Clara Valley’s promise for leading Northern California into a bright economic future quickly brought the area the nickname “Silicon Valley.” But in the book I am writing, I note that if this convergence of natural surroundings, suburban homes and high-tech industrialization represented a facet of the California dream, it also betrayed it.

A bright illusion of the future

A promising advertisement for homes in San Jose. San Jose Mercury, January 18, 1956

In addition to jobs in electronics and aerospace, the emerging suburbs of Silicon Valley promised newcomers a countryside experience. David Beers, whose father worked at the Sunnyvale Lockheed campus, remembered the chamber of commerce brochures claiming an “all-year garden” and “the most beautiful valleys in the world.” Such advertisements were common, assuring home buyers “good living,” the “calm of the country” and “a beautiful walnut and cherry orchard” that “the builder is leaving … for your enjoyment.” The white-collar workers of high tech could make their homes in what…
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Phil's Favorites

Why the FCC's proposed internet rules may spell trouble ahead

 

Why the FCC's proposed internet rules may spell trouble ahead

Courtesy of David ChoffnesNortheastern University

How fast is that video really coming in? hvostik/Shutterstock.com

As the Federal Communications Commission takes up a formal proposal to reverse the Obama-era Open Internet Order, a key question consumers and policymakers alike are asking is: What difference do these ru...



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Zero Hedge

Hundreds Of Victims Are Suing MGM Resorts Over Las Vegas Shooting

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In a lawsuit that could have wide-ranging ramifications for the nightlife industry in Las Vegas, Business Insider reports, hundreds of victims of the Oct. 1 mass shooting have joined class-action lawsuits against MGM Resorts International, owner of the Mandalay Bay resort and casino, where shooter Stephen Paddock fired on a crowd of 20,000 country music fans from his perch in a 32nd floor hotel suite in what became the deadliest mass shooting in US his...



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Chart School

Russell 2000 and Semiconductor New Highs / S&P Breaks

Courtesy of Declan.

The S&P broke higher to confirm a 'bear trap' and also closed at a new all-time high. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day but there were further losses in relative performance and continued losses in the MACD.


The Nasdaq posted a gap-driven 1% gain to bring it ever closer to channel resistance. It hasn't yet tagged resistance but it looks well placed to do so by the end of the week. Technical are all bullish.

...

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Insider Scoop

The Urban Outfitters Q3 Print: Jefferies' Likes And Dislikes

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related URBN 13 Key Technical Levels To Watch On Tuesday 5 Biggest Price Target Changes For Tuesday ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

As Bitcoin Tops $8,200, Only 39% Of Survey Respondents Say It's A Bubble

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Having first surged above $8000 overnight amid Zimbabwe's chaos, it appears uncertainty in the core of Europe has driven further demand for cryptocurrencu protection, sending Bitcoin to a new record high of $8247 - up 50% from the 'Bitcoin Cash' crash weekend lows.

...



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Biotech

The two obstacles that are holding back Alzheimer's research

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The two obstacles that are holding back Alzheimer's research

Courtesy of Todd GoldeUniversity of Florida

Family members often become primary caregivers for loved ones with Alzheimer’s disease. tonkid/Shutterstock.com

Thirty years ago, scientists began to unlock the mysteries regarding the cause of Alzheimer’...



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ValueWalk

Robert Mugabe Under House Arrest, Military Takes Control Of Zimbabwe

By Andjela Radmilac. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Zimbabwe’s head of state, 93-year-old Robert Mugabe, has been placed under house arrest after what seems to be a military coup took place in the nation’s capital.

By U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jesse B. Awalt/Released [Public domain], via Wikimedia CommonsRobert Mugabe is safe

Following numerous reports on social media late Thursday night about the increased military presence in Harare, the capital of Zimbabwe, the country’s military took...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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