Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Philstockworld Top Trade Review

Wow, what a market!  

When we left off our last Top Trade Review, we had just completed our first year of Top Trades with 119 trade ideas sent out by alert and, as of our reviews (we don't track them otherwise), 96 (80.6%) of them were winners.  How can we have 96 winners out of 119 in a year?  Well, for one thing our Top Trades are generally bullish and it's been a good year for the bulls and, for another thing, because we utilize our very excellent system of "Being the House – NOT the Gambler" and using options to hedge our positions and sell premium.

The other secret to our success in Top Trades is PATIENCE!!! Patience is the hardest thing we try to teach our Members at Philstockworld as it tends to take years of practice and the nice thing about the Top Trades Membership is that you don't have a choice – we make our picks ONLY when we see a nice opportunity and if that's once a week, twice a week or just once a month – we don't care – we only make picks that have excellent chances of making a profit – 80% chances going by our first year's performance…

Of course, when you are reading our reviews, those losing trades are often still great opportunities as we're long-term VALUE investors and it's a bit arbitrary when we do a review whether or not our idea has caught on yet. Our last review was on Oct 22nd and, at the time, we still liked Chipotle (CMG), which has since popped 10%, Chicago Bridge and Iron (CBI), which is now up 20%, Pearson (PSO), which gained 10% and S&P Ultra-Shorts (SDS) as a hedge, which is down 10% (as expected if the longs are winning).  

So here we are, 6 weeks later and 3 of our 4 losers (75%) have turned into winners already – who says picking stocks is hard?  With that being said, let's see how September and October's pics panned out and remember – keep an eye on the losers!  

Top Trade Alerts come from…
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Tomgram: Nomi Prins, The March of the Billionaires

 

Just whom Donald Trump will appoint to various key posts in his future administration has an unbearably enticing set of moving targets for the media (until, as at a recent rally in Cincinnati, dramatic announcements are made at unexpected moments, or released in other ways). And give The Donald credit: if he has a genius for anything, it’s for dominating the news cycle in ways — from his pre-crack-o’-dawn tweets to those rallies — that simply haven’t been seen here before. And be suitably amazed that, as during the election campaign, he continues to have an uncanny knack for flooding the screens of our world with that larger-than-life figure of his dreams, Donald Trump, nearly 24/7. He's the media-made man of our — and his — (endless) moment.

Until each appointment is announced, the speculation goes on endlessly about which billionaire or multimillionaire will be included in the latest round of The Chosen.  In some ways, those officially or unofficially being considered, whether appointed or not, offer us a strange window into the future Washington world of Donald Trump.  Take, for instance, two oily selections touted recently as possibilities for the man who has committed himself to elevating fossil fuel extraction to a high art.  Trump has, after all, already promised to make a future Saudi America independent of oil imports from the actual Saudi Arabia or any other “foe” or member of the “oil cartel,” come — if you’ll excuse a phrase that, in the context of climate change, is all too apt — hell or high water.

In such situations, it undoubtedly makes a certain sense to think about going directly to the trough.  If you want someone to oversee the Department of Energy, why not, for example, consider Harold Hamm, the Oklahoma oil tycoon and 60th richest person on the planet, whose fortune, according to Forbes, rose by $1.7 billion to $14.7 billion in the wake of Trump’s election victory?  (On the subject of such a possible appointment, Hamm himself has been diffident.)  Or if it’s the State Department you’re thinking about and global energy policy is on your mind, why not put aside the thought of frog legs and Mitt Romney for a second and at least consider — as Donald Trump reputedly is doing —…
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Thank Trump It’s Friday – Rally Continues Unabated

13 record highs for the Dow since the election!

We finished the day yesterday at 19,614 and that's up 1,731 (9.67%) from 17,883 before Donald Trump saved America just a month ago.  19,671 will be the official 10% move and we did flatline at 18,777 (the 5% line) on the way up but never a pullback.  Per our fabulous 5% Rule™, we expect a 20% retrace of the 10% run so a 2% pullback from 19,671 would be 357 points back to 19,313 but we didn't even pause there on the way up, which is a possible indicator that we're in the midst of a 20% run – not at the top of a 10% run.

This is not, of course, unprecedented.  When Obama was elected, the Dow was at 9,712 in November of 2009 and we added 1,000 points by Jan 14th, 2010 and hit 11,200 by April (up 1,488 or 15%) before having a significant correction and believe me, Republican voters were totally baffled by the markets reaction to that rally as well.  Of course the Dow went on, in the Obama adminstration, to hit 13,600 in Sept for a total gain of 3,888 points or 40% but, at this rate, Trump should be able to blow that gain away before his first 100 days are up.

Because, after all, what's the difference how much we pay for stocks as long as there is someone else willing to pay more for them tomorrow.  That's called "The Greater Fool Theory" and it works fantastically until you run out of fools but Trump got 60M votes – that is a really great number of fools we have to work with!  

Trump just picked Andrew Puzder, CEO of CKE Restaurants, which is Hardees and Carl's Junior, who went private as Apollo bought them in 2010.  Aside from being a strong opponent to raising the minimum wage and running ads like this, when speaking to Business Insider earlier this year, Mr. Puzder said that increased automation could be a welcome development because machines were “always polite, they always upsell, they never take a vacation, they never show up late, there’s never a slip-and-fall or an age, sex or race discrimination case.”  


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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 12-07-16

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here!

Major Topics:

00:01:59 Checking on the Markets (Active Trader)
00:03:05 Russell 2000 Chart
00:05:32 SPX Charts
00:07:15 Trade Ideas
00:08:51 DAX Chart
00:11:31 Checking on the Markets
00:13:31 SPY Top Holdings
00:29:11 Zimbabwe Billionares
00:31:38 ECB QE
00:32:51 Trade Ideas
00:36:34 CL Charts
00:40:57 Health Care
00:44:38 Coffee Chart
00:47:14 SQQQ
00:52:00 TZA
00:56:55 COST
00:58:10 COST Trade Ideas
01:02:58 SQQQ – Portfolio
01:08:29 VZ Charts
01:10:50 IBM & UNG Charts
01:20:11 5% Portfolio
01:28:22 DBA Trade Ideas
01:33:37 WFM Trade Ideas
01:42:31 TZA Trade Ideas
01:52:02 Market News
01:57:53 Consumer Credit
02:01:14 More Trade Ideas

 

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!

 





2 Trillion Dollar Thursday – ECB Policy Shift Not Enough to Continue?

It has been an incredible month.

Since day one of the Trumpocalypse, money has been flying out of bonds and into equities, with much of the money going into ETFs (aka "dumb money") as bond traders don't tend to be stock pickers so we have widespread, indiscriminate buying that has been boosting our indexes to record levels.  

This morning, the markets looked to Mario Draghi and the ECB to keep the party going and they have, indeed left their interest rates at 0%, punishing savers at least through March and they continue to buy bonds for as little as NEGATIVE 0.4% – effectively paying people to borrow their money.  That bond buying program, however, has been trimmed a bit, from $86.4Bn to $64.8Bn and that in itself is miles down from the Summer, when the Euro was at $1.15 ($92Bn).  We're waiting for Draghi's press conference but, even in the statement – they are already promising more easing if necessary.  

The question is, necessary for what?  Euro Stoxx have already climbed to within 20% of their pre-crash highs but, of course, the EU may have S&P envy, as our own leading index is now 60% higher than it was at the 2008 peak.  Yes, 60% higher!  

Amazingly, no one seems to care that the ECB has now bought $2.5 TRILLION worth of 0% interest bonds and our own Fed has bought $3.5Tn at an average of about 1.25% and that both entities have lost 20% in the last month (a combined $1.2 TRILLION) and that those losses will ultimately be passed down to the citizens, who are the ultimate funders of this massive corporate bailout program (they didn't buy your bonds did they?).

They will, of course, argue that they have caused rates to remain low and that has helped you buy a home or a car but, had they not kept rates artificially low, then the price of the home you bought would have been lower and probably the price of the car too because those markets tend to adjust to the payments people can afford so, by design,
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Use the MACD, And Moving Average Indicators To Perfection!

 

Use the MACD, And Moving Average Indicators To Perfection!

Courtesy of 

This was the subject line of an email that came into my inbox tonight and it’s something I’ve been thinking about for a while. No, not how to use MACD to perfection, but how investors think about signals and indicators.

A few weeks ago I was riding the subway, when after a minute or two of sitting at a station, on came the dreaded “we are delayed due to train traffic ahead of us.” The person sitting next to me let out an audible “ugggh.” I wasn’t surprised to hear the sound of frustration; after all, nobody prefers a longer commute. But what made me take notice was what sparked it. It wasn’t the two minutes of sitting at the platform, but rather the automated message, as if you need a signal to confirm the fact that you’re sitting still.

Searching for signals is part of what makes us human beings. We look for signals in people’s body language, we look for signals from god, and we definitely look for signals in the stock market.

The problem is we tend to overdo it. I mean, how many signals do we really need to tell us that the economy is expanding or contracting, or that stocks are going lower or higher? Looking for the signal behind the signal’s signal is fourth-order thinking at its dumbest.

We’re addicted to signals because they provide us with a scapegoat. They give us something to blame other than chance when we experience an adverse outcome. Heaven forbid we look in the mirror and accept that we made a bad decision or just experienced bad luck.

The email I got tonight is a great example of how dirtbags prey on an investor’s naivety. The truth is that indicators are just a derivative of price; they’re an elaborate way of turning something simple into something complex. Indicators can’t be used to perfection because they don’t actually indicate anything about the future any more than a magic eight ball does.

This should all be stating the obvious, but based on the number of these emails I receive, apparently they’re great at providing false hope.





Will We Hold It Wednesday – Russell 1,350 Edition

I like this chart from Panamaorange at StockTwits:

I'm not a TA guy but I do know when things are overbought and oh boy are we overbought right now.  Volume on the S&P ETF (SPY) was 57M yesterday as we busted up to new highs – that's about 1/2 "normal" volume of 100M, which is already down from 150M last year.  Low volume means low conviction and we pair that with record ETF inflows (dumb money) of $56Bn and we know exactly what this rally is made of.  Small Caps, Financials and Industrials captured most of the flows while, as noted yesterday, money is fleeing from Emerging Markets and Emerging Market Debt – we're simply the "safe haven" – for now

And, of course, money is flowing out of bonds, which are a very bad thing to hang onto when interest rates are rising and December is on pace to blow November's numbers out of the water and, like Richard Gere, that bond money has nowhere else to go except into equities – regardless of how ridiculously priced they are.

And, of course, a person dumb enough to put their money into 30-year notes at 2% isn't going to think twice about running into equities that have a p/e of 30 – that's more like a 3.3% return, at least!  That's also making dividend stocks extra expensive as the coupon clippers love dividend stocks and, as value investors, we're finding bargains very hard to find in that space but we're patient, we can wait for the correction.

Meanwhile, the Dow has climbed to the top of our target range already.  Back on 11/25, we put up a hedge against our Russell Futures (/TF) shorts (was 1,350 then too!) that would cover us for an $11,250 profit if the indexes refused to back down – at the time I said:

In fact, the Russell 2,000 is just under 1,350 and that's up 200 points since early November (not counting their spike down) and that is just shy of 15% so the Dow is MILES behind


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Let’s say you’re not optimistic about the next four years…

 

Let’s say you’re not optimistic about the next four years…

Courtesy of 

The President-elect of the United States is outraging some of our largest strategic partners before even assuming office, feuding with sketch comedy shows and literally accusing people of crimes on Twitter in the early hours of the morning.

He’s disparaging the media on a daily basis. He’s said more complimentary things about Russia than he has about our allies over the last half-century from NATO. He’s conducting unprepared phone calls with Pakistan and Taiwan – the avowed enemies of India and China respectively – and inexplicably inviting his daughter to sit in on meetings with world leaders.

This sort of thing might be making you nervous. That’s understandable. Most smart people I talk too – including Trump supporters – have their fingers crossed that he will grow into the role he’s won for himself and stop doing embarrassing shit. He might. Lots of 70 year olds turn on a dime and make wholesale personality shifts. Okay, just kidding, but I’m trying to be optimistic.

Let’s say you’re not optimistic about the next four years. Well, my friend, Bloomberg has a feature just for you: The Pessimist’s Guide to 2017. It’s a compendium of scenarios in which things go very wrong in multiple categories. It’s probably too pessimistic, but I think that’s the point of the exercise.

I’m not as worried about the trade stuff and the wall stuff as some of you, mostly because I don’t believe any of it will actually be pursued. I do worry about the potential for geopolitical mishaps that lead to armed conflict. I don’t think the undisciplined and uninformed bluster and bravado of a “business genius” is what typically makes the world safe, forgive me for feeling this way.

The Bloomberg Guide talks about things like North Korea testing long range missiles that can hold a nuclear device, about ISIS radicalizing central Asia, about Saudi Arabia and Japan developing their own military defenses further upon feeling abandoned, about Putin feeling emboldened, etc. Let’s assume you think any or all of these are legitimate concerns. Here’s one investment that might make sense…


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Trumperific Tuesday – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Everything is awesome!  

We did get some awesome Consumer Spending numbers yesterday but, as you can see from the chart, it's more of a reflection of inflation than of a confident consumer that's out shopping.  The cost of "essentials" has risen sharply since May, up 8% while discretionary spending has remained flat.  I imagine when the credit card data comes out – we'll see that a lot of this spending has been debt-financed – not the best kind of spending...

Still, the market hates nuance so YAY!!!  Speaking of nuances, did you know that Fitch, Moody's and the S&P have taken a record 1,971 negative ratings actions on emerging-market sovereign and government-related entities in 2016 – and the year isn't even over yet!  Isn't that awesome???  Not since 2007-2008 have we had this kind of uptick in negative ratings and back then the record was only 1,400 – we shattered that in September!

Now I'm not going to say this is a bad thing because NOTHING is a bad thing as far as this market is concerned but, it's kind of a bad thing.  26% of the 134 Sovereigns rated by Moody's still have a negative outlook – so things can get even worse.  When a sovereign defaults, there's a domino effect of companies, private and state-owned, that follow. For once, S&P, Moody's and Fitch may be giving investors early indications of what to expect. The message for now is clear: Developing nations are no longer doing that well.  

I'm not going to dwell on the negative, not when Bloomberg did such a good job of it in their "Pessimist's Guide to 2017".  


We tried shorting yesterday and that failed, with our stops quickly broken to the upside but we're at is again today.   In yesterday's post, I said the Nikkei (/NKD) was my favorite short at 18,500 and we made a +$500 move down to 18,400 (now back to 18,450) but that was disappointing given the Dollars sharp fall back to 100 so today we're not into them but we do have 19,225 on the Dow Futures (/YM) and those components are very stretched and oil
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Amazon Goes Offline With Bricks-And-Mortar Grocery Chain; Envisions Opening 2,000 Stores

Coming soon? Turn on your Amazon Go App and walk into the store. Set the App to "Personal Assistant" mode and give him a British or French accent. Then, go grab your groceries. Your assistant will give you reminders ("out of milk"), praise for responsible choices ("excellent selection, fiber-rich"), and warnings for mistakes, such as "gluten!," "this will be your 6th Twinkie," and "I'm really going to have to self-destruct if you try to buy that." 

Amazon Goes Offline With Bricks-And-Mortar Grocery Chain; Envisions Opening 2,000 Stores

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

After launching Amazon Fresh, an online food delivery service, in numerous cities just a few years ago, Amazon has now decided it has to go "offline" to capture incremental share of the grocery market.  As such, the company today revealed its first brick-and-mortar small-format grocery store, Amazon Go, one of at least three formats the online retail giant is exploring as it makes a play for a higher share of grocery spending. 

With in-store technology designed to track customers' every step, the Amazon Go concept promises "No Lines" and "No Checkout."

The first Amazon Go concept store is roughly the size of a convenience store, though according to the Wall Street Journal the company is also testing a drive-thru concept as well as a traditional 30-to-40,000 square foot grocery store that would combine in-store shopping and curbside pickup. 

The Amazon Go store, at roughly 1,800 square feet in downtown Seattle, resembles a convenience store-format in a video Amazon released Monday. It features artificial intelligence-powered technology that eliminates checkouts, cash registers and lines. Instead, customers scan their phone on a kiosk as they walk in, and Amazon automatically determines what items customers take from the shelves. After leaving the store, Amazon charges their account for the items and sends a receipt.

Meanwhile, in the suburban Seattle neighborhood of Ballard, a handful of workers on Monday were finishing up one of Amazon’s two drive-through prototypes in the area, which according to the people close to the situation are slated to open in the next few weeks. The wood-paneled building with green trim and an overhang appeared to have at least three covered bays for cars to pull up and pick up orders, with


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold could blast off, if this resistance cluster holds!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the US Dollar/Gold Ratio over the past 30-years. When the ratio is heading lower, US$ is weaker than Gold/Gold stronger than US$. When the ratio is heading higher, US$ is stronger than Gold/Gold weaker than the US$

At this time, the ratio in the chart below, has created a Power of the Pattern setup, that is seldom if ever seen.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

A rare cluster of resistance is in play for the US$/Gold ratio at (1...



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Zero Hedge

Soft Coup Attempt Imminent? Furious Trump Slams "Secret" CIA Report Russia Helped Him Win

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Overnight the media propaganda wars escalated after the late Friday release of an article by the Washington Post (which recently admitted to promoted fake news itself in an attempt to smear other so-called "fake news" sites) according to which a secret CIA assessment found that Russia sought to tip last month’s U.S. p...



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ValueWalk

How to make 13% on your favorite song

By Sovereign Man. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Did you know that until June 28, 2016, the song “Happy Birthday” was actually copyrighted material?

Yes, I’m serious. And I’m talking about THAT Happy Birthday, as in the song we all sing at birthday parties.

The original melody was written by two sisters, Patty and Mildred Hill, back in 1893. But instead of “Happy Birthday” they called it “Good Morning to All.”

Photo by langll, Pixbay

The Happy Birthday lyr...



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Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. Rig Counts Jump in Wake of OPEC’s Production Accord: Chart (Bloomberg)

U.S. oil and gas producers increased drilling activity the most since April 2014 after OPEC agreed to its first production cut in eight years last month.

Oil Climbs as Saudis Show Commitment to Cut Output Before Talks (Bloomberg)

Oil advanced as Saudi Arabia was said to have informed its customers it will stand by its commitment to cut production before OPEC meets with producers from outside the group to discuss reductions...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. Rig Counts Jump in Wake of OPEC’s Production Accord: Chart (Bloomberg)

U.S. oil and gas producers increased drilling activity the most since April 2014 after OPEC agreed to its first production cut in eight years last month.

Oil Climbs as Saudis Show Commitment to Cut Output Before Talks (Bloomberg)

Oil advanced as Saudi Arabia was said to have informed its customers it will stand by its commitment to cut production before OPEC meets with producers from outside the group to discuss reductions...



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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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Members' Corner

How To Poop At A Party?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Once again, it's "Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday in the Loo", so we follow up on Second Hand Stink with How to Poop At A Party. 

This hilarious video demonstrates how to control the Shituation when needing to Poopulate at a gathering, in no uncertain terms. 

We hope this recurring bathroom humor theme "shits" well with our readers. So please do relax, drop the cursor below, click and enjoy.

...

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Chart School

Dow Jones Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

When the Dow Jones moves the media must have an explanation for it. However the insiders have the nod to what is going on.

The media story so far is that since the TRUMP win, managers have been rotating their portfolios to represent TRUMP trends (lower taxes, go easy on the 'too big to fail' Wall Street banks, more jobs for Americans). Prior the election the stock market was set up for a HILLARY win, due to more of the same, status quo, FED support. But....

Using Richard Ney logic, the short answer is, stocks were always going up and the election results do not matter nor would a higher 10 yr bond or lackluster fundamentals. The real story is the marke...

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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of December 5th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Largest US Bitcoin Exchange Is "Extremely Concerned" With IRS Crackdown Targeting Its Users

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last Thursday we reported that in a startling development seeking to breach the privacy veil of users of America's largest bitcoin exchange, the IRS filed court papers seeking a judicial order to serve a so-called “John Doe” summons on the San Francisco-based Bitcoin platform Coinbase.

The government’s request is part of a bitcoin tax-evasion probe, and se...



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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>