Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

PSW August Portfolio Review

$2 MILLION Dollars.  

Well, actually it's $1,960,061 but that's still up 326% from our $600,000 start in our paired Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios since their inception on 11/26/13.  We're "only' up $440,607 (29%) in 13 months (see our July, 2016 portfolio review) as, even at that time, I wondered "Are We Too Bullish".  

The S&P was at 2,120 last July and now at 2,425 so up 14% which means we're outperforming the S&P by 100% so I certainly don't think we've become too bearish, we've simply tapered our 40%+ annual growth of the first 3 years in favor of spending more money on hedges – to lock in these ridiculous gains.  

And they are ridiculous.  As I noted on Friday, there isn't enough money in the World, nor are the Central Banks printing money fast enough to pay everyone 40% annual gains.  In fact, if you start with $600,000 and make 40% a year for just 10 years, that's $17.3 MILLION!  So, I will ask you again, do you think it's likely or unlikely we continue along this path?

No, that would be silly, right?  No matter how confident we are in our own abilities to make money, we have to recognize that this is a unique market situation that is inherently unsustainable.  It's a lot like catching a really good wave while you are surfing – we're good surfers and we will take full advantage of it but you can't fool yourself into betting the next wave will be even bigger, and the one after that and the one after that – it's simply not how the universe works.

Of course, we know what's causing these giant wavers – Central Bank Policies – but then we have to consider if those are sustainable and, as you can see from the rate chart – the amount of money they need to pump into the system begins to grow exponentially to sustain these asset gains.  We started with $600,000 but the S&P 500 is now at about $21Tn alone so it will cost SOMEONE $8Tn to add 40% to it.  The entire GDP of the United States is $18.5Tn and is growing at MAYBE 3%, which is $242Bn – far shy of…
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Is Ryan Kelly’s iconic photograph an American ‘Guernica’?

 

Is Ryan Kelly's iconic photograph an American 'Guernica'?

Courtesy of Jennifer Wenzel, Columbia University

On August 12, Charlottesville Daily Progress photographer Ryan M. Kelly captured the exact moment that Nazi sympathizer James Alex Fields, Jr. drove his Dodge Challenger into a crowd of counterprotesters, injuring 19 and killing 32-year-old Heather Heyer. It’s probably the most enduring image to emerge from the weekend of “Unite the Right” rallies in Charlottesville, Virginia.

At first glance, Kelly’s photograph is nearly impossible to make sense of visually or politically. Cars are not supposed to drive into pedestrians; fellow citizens are not supposed to kill each other over political differences. And there’s so much in the frame of the image – so many figures and forms crowded together, most only partially visible – that you can’t take it in all at once.

Pablo Picasso’s 1937 iconic mural “Guernica” might teach us how to interpret this image more closely, and why it is important to do so. Like Kelly’s photograph, “Guernica” conveys a moment of terror through a jumble of forms and fragments that seem to make no sense.

In April 1937, a different sort of “Unite the Right” moment took place in fascist Europe during the destruction of Guernica. At the request of General Franco, the leader of nationalist insurgents in the Spanish Civil War, German and Italian warplanes bombarded the Basque town in northern Spain. Terror rained from the sky: Hundreds of civilians were killed, while military targets were left unscathed.

Days later, as May Day protesters filled the streets of Paris, Pablo Picasso began what would become an anti-war masterpiece.

Pablo Picasso, ‘Guernica’ (1937). Reina Sofia

There are uncanny echoes of Picasso’s “Guernica” in Kelly’s photograph. Picasso used the Cubist techniques of fragmentation and collage to create a visual cry of anguish at the destruction wrought by men at the controls of war machines.

To make sense of the painting, you must do the work of reassembling what has been rendered apart. Yet you will never make sense of such destruction. You cannot merely glance at this massive painting or take it in all at once; you must stand and look and…
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Everyone Gets Arbed Eventually

 

Everyone Gets Arbed Eventually

Courtesy of 

The Wall Street Journal on the business of high frequency trading:

A costly high-tech arms race in which HFT firms relentlessly compete to shave tiny fractions of a second off data transmission times has also hurt their bottom lines.

Revenue at HFT firms from U.S. equities trading is projected to be just $850 million this year, compared to $7.2 billion in revenue from U.S. stocks trading in 2009, Tabb Group says.

Techniques pioneered by the upstart traders are now common at old-line financial firms. Goldman Sachs, for example, had 600 human traders supporting its cash equities business in 2000. That number is down to a handful, the bank said recently. They are supported by hundreds of engineers.

How could you think this wasn’t going to happen? The guys who made all the money in HFT early on have since reinvested – in real estate, NHL hockey franchises etc. Because if your only edge is first-mover and technological, you know the edge isn’t going to persist forever. The smart players know this because they learn from history and see the writing on the wall.

Everyone gets arbed eventually.

Source:

Sale of Once Hot High-Frequency Trading Firm Reflects Industry Troubles (Wall Street Journal)





TGIF – Market Ends Week on a Rough Note

Wheeee – this is fun!  

As you can see from JackDamn's index chart, the Russell Small Caps have now given up ALL of their gains for the year and, even a little bit lower and we won't be looking at a small correction anymore.  Generally, we like to "short the laggard" – or the index that has fallen the least but the Nasdaq is a strange animal and all of it's outperforming gains are due to Apple (AAPL) - and we think AAPL deserves to be at $160, so we don't see it as particularly overpriced compared to the Dow or S&P, though there are certain components in the Nasdaq (AMZN, NFLX, TSLA) that have ridiculous values and those may correct and drag the index down with them.  

As you are well aware, we've been discussing options hedges and futures shorts all month so I hope you enjoyed yesteray's dip as much as we did.  Our two key shorts in our portfolios are the Ultra-Short Russell ETF (TZA) and the Ultra-Short Nasdaq ETF (SQQQ) and the Nasdaq is 4.5% off the top and the Russell is 7% off.  By the way, we have the SQQQ hedges, not because we thought the Nasdaq would drop more but because our biggest long position is AAPL – so it gave us the best protection to lock in our gains.  

In fact, we just did a review of our Options Opportunity Portfolio, which is up an impressive 211% as of our two-year anniversary (8/8/15 was our start date with $100,000) and it is, by far, the best-performing portfolio in the Seeking Alpha Marketplace.  That portfolio has the following AAPL position that, if successful will, by itself, make us $180,000 by Jan 2019.  

Our net entry on the trade was a $5,600 credit, mostly in June and, though the short puts obligate us to buy 2,000 shares of AAPL for $130 ($260,000), which would use $130,000 of ordinary margin, AAPL is already far enough out of the money where the net margin requirement in the short puts is just $20,000 – so it's a non-issue in our now $311,000 portfolio.  


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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 08-16-17

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

Major Topics:

00:01:35 Checking on the Markets
00:03:15 Indexes
00:10:47 Russell 2000
00:13:48 Petroleum Status Report
00:17:55 Crude Oil
00:18:35 Futures Trading Charts
00:24:21 Gasoline RBOB
00:26:08 Natural Gas
00:32:03 Gold
00:35:33 Coffee
00:38:42 TZA
01:02:24 FOMC Meeting
01:04:40 Active Trader
01:08:15 FOMC Minutes
01:16:55 NVDA
01:22:50 AMD
01:25:41 Active Trader
01:32:01 Trade Ideas
01:34:40 TEVA
01:36:59 GILD
01:38:52 TGT
01:39:42 LB Charts
01:43:00 :B Trade Ideas
01:47:16 Checking on Portfolios
01:51:10 More Trade Ideas

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!





Faltering Thursday – CEOs Quit Trump, Markets Start Noticing the Mess

Wow, that was a fun day!  

After bragging about how easy it would be to replace departing CEOs, Trump ended up disbanding what was left of his Business Council as we finally found a group of people in America with the backbone to stand up to the President.  From our point of view, we don't care what news brought the market down, as long as the market goes down and, once again, our index shorts were big winners.  In fact, we made almost $1,000 for our Members in just over an hour during our Live Trading Webinar alone (you're welcome!). 

Our 5:49am call to short the Futures was linked pre-market in yesterday morning's PSW Report and now would be a good time to review the calls after the fact, so we can get an idea of how our 5% Rule™ operates in the wild:

The Dow had a 400-point run (1.8%) to 22,050 so 80-points back is 21,970 and then all the way back to 21,890 but I'm only expecting a weak retrace for now.  

As you can see, we pretty much nailed 21,970 (weak retrace).  90-pont drop from 22,000 (our shorting line) was good for gains of $450 per contract.

/ES had a 30-point run to 2,470 and that's 6-points back to 2,463 and then 2,457 if it's so inclined to fill that gap.  

Again we have the weak retrace and a 10-point dop on the S&P Futures (/ES) is good for gains of $500/contract.  What we're looking for…
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#SomethingMatters

Just another tipping point, or a real one?

#SomethingMatters

Courtesy of 

The hashtag #NothingMatters had become a sort of shorthand for “Oh my god, how is this actually happening” among normal people from both sides of the political spectrum over the last year. The outrages and insults to the norms of our democracy and our way of life, too numerous and widely known to list here, would be greeted with a semi-sarcastic #nothingmatters and then we’d move on to the next insane thing, and then the next.

But apparently, something matters.

You can’t expect members of the Fortune 500 and representatives of the labor unions to stick around when you equivocate in the aftermath of Nazis murdering someone. You can be an atrocious person and perhaps the worst leader this country has ever known, and you can get away with a whole lot of shit, but not Nazi sympathy.

Nice to know there’s still a line somewhere. I was beginning to think that there wasn’t. “He doesn’t really mean it, come on…” 

Over the last few days, members of the President’s “American Manufacturing Council” began to drop off and openly criticize the President’s outrageous response to the Charlottesville incident. One by one, they announced their resignations and told their constituents (employees, shareholders, customers) why. They had no choice, whether because of conscience or because of business pressures or some combination of both, it doesn’t matter. You cannot run a multi-national corporation with employees of every background and customers around the world if you’re tacitly supporting Nazi and KKK sympathizers.

By lunchtime today, the “Strategic Council” (the one with all the Wall Street people like Jamie Dimon, Steve Schwarzman and Larry Fink) had unanimously agreed to disband and liquidate. And then Trump came out and acted like it was his idea and claimed to be disbanding it himself. It probably saved him the humiliation of another two dozen public announcements about how inappropriate and disgusting his response was.

One thing we as Americans can count on, and I don’t mean this cynically, is that money talks and bullshit walks. As Puff Daddy used to admonish the aspiring rappers on his reality show – it’s all


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White Power Wednesday – Trump Says Some Nationalists are “Very Fine People”

I can't believe the markets are up again.  

This country is running headlong into full-scale riots and the market could not be more complacent about it.  Once again we are jacked up in the Futures and I already put out a note to our Members with new shorting lines and I have to run to the Nasdaq this morning for an interview so I'm just going to post a link HERE.  

That's right, we're very busy in the mornings at PSW and that's because being a good investor is a JOB, not a hobby and it requires a surprising amount of work if you want to get it right.  Yesterday morning we also shorted the low-volume move up in the Futures and my call in the Morning Report was:

Meanwhile, talk of trade war is strengthening the Dollar, which may even break back over 94 today and that unintended consequence of sabre-rattling is not good for the markets so we took advantage this morning and put in those short orders on the Futures in our Live Member Chat Room at Dow (/YM) 22,000, S&P (/ES) 2,470, Nasdaq (/NQ) 5,925 and Russell (/TF) 1,400.  As usual, we wait for two of them to cross under than then short one of the laggards with VERY TIGHT STOPS – because this market be CRAZY!  

The Dollar hit 94.04 and is holding 93.90 at the moment, consolidating for a move higher (long /DX) and we got some nice drops on our indexs but, as we thought they were shallow:  Dow fell 50 points to gain $250 per contract, S&P fell 10 points to gain $500 per contract, Nasdaq fell 25 points to gain $500 per contract and Russell fell 20 points to gain $2,000 per contract, which is good because, as I said to our Members in the Live Chat Room at 9:37:

I've got 5 short /TF, always my favorite.  1,395.30 is my avg.  Other than that, just seeing how things shake out.  

Image result for boring investmentsSee, this is not complicated:
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Visualizing The Diversity Of The Tech Industry

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

With the recent leak of the “Google Manifesto” and the maelstrom of media backlash that followed, Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes that it seems that concerns around diversity in the technology industry have finally reached a boiling point.

Today’s infographic from Information is Beautiful breaks down the demographics of 23 major tech companies, based on statistics from 2016. It also provides comparisons to the composition of the U.S. population in general, the top 50 U.S. companies, Congress, and Fortune 500 CEOs.

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

 

WHICH COMPANIES EMPLOY THE MOST WOMEN?

With just a focus on the major companies on this list, here is a breakdown that shows which companies employ the most women:

The above list already illustrates why diversity is such a concern for many observers of the industry: even the companies with the most women on their rosters have proportions lower than U.S. population average of 50%.

In contrast, here are the companies on the list that employ the fewest women, as a proportion of their workforce:

Google, which is at the center of debate right now, did not make the list of the companies with the fewest women – but it’s not far off with a workforce comprised of 31% women.

 

WHAT’S CHANGED IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS?

According to Information is Beautiful, here is what has changed in the last 12 months as of their last update (April 2017):

  • Facebook, Apple, eBay, and Microsoft all had their ratio of women increase by 1%.
  • LinkedIn had their ratio of women increase by 3%.
  • Google’s gender ratio stayed the same.
  • Microsoft increased the ratio of non-white employees by 3%, and Facebook by 2%.
  • Google, Apple, and eBay increased ratio of non-white employees by 1%.
  • LinkedIn lost 3% of its non-white employees.
  • Asian staff accounted for the majority of increases in ethnic diversity, while the ratio of Hispanic employees remained static.

To get an even better sense of the data, we recommend visiting the interactive version of Information is Beautiful’s graphic, which shows numbers for 2014 and 2015 as well.





Trade War Tuesday – Trump “Probes” China, A Welcome Distraction

Related image1, 2, 3, 4 – I declare a trade war!  

Those of you who are students of economic history know that nothing is more damaging to an economy than a trade war and those of you who don't know enough history to believe there are "alternate facts" aren't worth trying to convince, so I won't waste time here.  Our President, of course, is not one to let facts get in the way of a rash decision and Trump is proposing special taxes on Chinese imports, starting with aluminum but actually, this is a sneaky way to stop the flow of cheap solar cells into the US to boost Trump's beloved coal industry (and the Koch Brothers).  

It is not unusual for the U.S. to punish businesses it deems to be “cheating” on global trade rules, and one should not be too quick to judge any specific punitive measure taken. But the fear is that we are now on a slippery slope toward a trade war, as China is certain to respond by taxing U.S. sales of goods in China.

All of this trade talk ignores the basic fact that China is our factory floor, the way the midwestern cities once were in the mid-20th century.  They were dirty and polluted and the kind of jobs people had were not the kind of jobs people actually wanted, which is why the people in the Northeast were thrilled to export those jobs and the pollution out west.  As the US developed and as World Trade became more efficient, we exported the jobs and factories all the way to Asia and China became the new Japan (who were our factory in the 70s) and now China is pushing those jobs and factories to Africa because, in the end – NOBODY ACTUALLY WANTS THEM!

Image result for iphone assembly lineAssembling IPhones is not a dream job but those are on the high end of of what we have exported overseas.  I'm going to focus on the IPhone so I can explain to you what an idiot our President is, without making it too complex.  

 Though the IPhone is an American product, it's assembled in China and those
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Phil's Favorites

Deep Subprime Auto Loan Delinquencies Reach 2007 Levels: The Next Big Short?

Courtesy of Mish.

Subprime auto delinquencies have staked up so much that we are back at 2007 milestone levels.

There’s a section of the auto-loan market — known in industry parlance as deep subprime — where delinquency rates have ticked up to levels last seen in 2007, according to data compiled by credit reporting bureau Equifax.

“Performance of recent deep subprime vintages is awful,” E...



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ValueWalk

Q2/H1 Hedge Fund Letters - Letters, Conferences, Calls, And More

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Q2 / H1 hedge fund letters page is now up – as mentioned last time this will be more of a hedge fund news resource page. While the bulk and majority of the content will be about letters, we will also have links to conferences, feature stories and related hedge fund resources that may be of interest.

This post was started on July 1st 2017 as we like to get the hedge fund news up right away, but as the quarter just ended and we frequently update posts even six months after a time period has passed make sure to check back.

As always, before getting into the nitty gritty of hedge fund news and material we must state to protect ourselves from trolls that the links are not an endorsement whatsoever nor does any omission mean anything, besides for the fact that we do not find the letter interesting/n...



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Zero Hedge

Gavekal On The Coming Clash Of Empires: Russia's Role As A Global Game-Changer

Courtesy of Charles and Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research

Carthago Est Delenda

Carthage must be destroyed”. Cato the elder would conclude his speeches in the Roman Senate with the admonition that salt should be spread on the ruins of Rome’s rival. Listening to the US media over these summer holidays from Grand Lake, Oklahoma, it is hard to escape the conclusion that most of the American media, and US congress, feels the same way about Russia. Which is odd given that the Cold War supposedly ended almost 30 years ago.

But then again, a quick study of history shows that clashes between land and sea-based empires have been a fairly steady constant of Western civilization. Think of Athens versus Sparta, Greece versus Persia, Rome versus Carthage, England versus Napoleon, and more recently the US vers...



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Chart School

Gold steps formation is bullish

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Making a clear judgment on price trend that's is correct is critical, after all the most common advice from the large heads on Wallstreet is to follow the trend. This means your trend tools must provide the clear and correct answer, readtheticker.com members are encouraged to consider RTT Steps as their preferred trend tool.

These chart examples should prove our point. RTT Steps is much better than moving averages, hands down!

Gold example



Apple Inc example

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


 


Investing Q...



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Insider Scoop

Things To Like, Things To Watch At The Gap

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related GPS 20 Stocks Moving In Friday's Pre-Market Session A Peek Into The Markets: U.S. Stock Futures Edge Higher Ahead Of Consumer Sentiment Repor...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Ukrainian Lawmakers Disclose $45 Million In Bitcoin Holdings

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As Ukraine's crackdown on corruption continues, three lawmakers from Ukraine’s ruling party revealed this week that they own a combined $45 million in bitcoin, according to a report by RIA Novosti, a Russian foreign news service.

Their holdings came to light during mandatory financial disclosures by members of the Ukrainian parliament, part of an IMF-approved strategy to tamp down corruption in Ukraine. The country's democratic institutions, which were never very robust to begin with, have been further destabilized by...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 14th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Editing human embryos with CRISPR is moving ahead - now's the time to work out the ethics

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Editing human embryos with CRISPR is moving ahead – now's the time to work out the ethics

Courtesy of Jessica BergCase Western Reserve University

There’s still a way to go from editing single-cell embryos to a full-term ‘designer baby.’ ZEISS Microscopy, CC BY-SA

The announcement by researchers in Portland, Oregon that they’ve successfully modified the genetic m...



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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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