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Invest with a Telescope…Not a Microscope

 

Invest with a Telescope…Not a Microscope

Courtesy of Wade of Investing Caffeine

Telescope-Microscope

 

It was another bloody week in the stock market (S&P 500 index dropped -3.1%), and any half-glass full data was interpreted as half-empty. The week was epitomized by a Citigroup report entitled “World Economy Trapped in a Death Spiral.” A sluggish monthly jobs report on Friday, which registered a less than anticipated addition of 151,000 jobs, painted a weakening employment picture. Professional social media site LinkedIn Corp. (LNKD) added fuel to the fire with a soft profit forecast, which resulted in the stock getting almost chopped in half (-44%)…in a single day (ouch). [This analysis does not even include today's sharp selloff.]

It’s funny how quickly the headlines can change – just one week ago, the Dow Jones Industrial index catapulted higher by almost +400 points in a single day and we were reading about soaring stocks.

Coherently digesting the avalanche of diverging and schizophrenic headlines is like attempting to analyze a windstorm through a microscope. A microscope is perfect for looking at a single static item up close, but a telescope is much better suited for analyzing a broader set of data. With a telescope, you are better equipped to look farther out on the horizon, to anticipate what trends are coming next. The same principle applies to investing. Short-term traders and speculators are great at using a short-term microscope to evaluate one shiny, attention-grabbing sample every day. The investment conclusion, however, changes the following day, when a different attention-grabbing headline is analyzed to a different conclusion. As Mark Twain noted, “If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed.  If you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed.”

Short-termism is an insidious disease that will slowly erode short-run performance and if not controlled will destroy long-run results as well. This is not a heretic concept. Some very successful investors have preached this idea in many ways. Here are a few of them:

‘‘We will continue to ignore political and economic forecasts which are an expensive distraction for many investors and businessmen.” –Warren Buffett (Annual Newsletter 1994)

‘‘If you spend more than 14 minutes a year


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A Gift From God

The stock market decline doesn't feel like a gift right now but it may turn into one if you have a long-term investment plan. And ironically, the downside risk is less now than it was in May of last year. Which shows how fear and risk are not necessarily coupled in the stock market.  

A Gift From God

Courtesy of Michael Batnick, The Irrelevant Investor

The S&P 500 closed at a 52-week low on January 20th for the first time since 2011. Last week I took a look at how stocks did in the year they made a 52-week low. Maybe not surprisingly, they performed significantly worse in the years when a 52-week closing low occurred, returning -10% on average, versus 18% for all years that didn’t experience this. Today, I’m going a step further to examine how stocks performed in the one and three years following a 52-week closing low.

When looking out only one year, it’s almost always impossible to say anything conclusive. and this exercise is no exception. With that said, here are a few observations.

  • Stocks have historically not been any more likely to be positive one year after they’ve made a 52-week closing low. However, when stocks were positive one year later, the average change was 24%, significantly higher than all periods.
  • Following the previous statement, after closing at a 52-week low, stocks were more likely to have an outsized move a year later. For all one-year periods, stocks closed either +/- double-digits 65% of the time. One year after a 52-week closing low, stocks had a double-digit change 75% of the time. Grab your popcorn.

Contrary to what our stomach would have us believe, stocks actually get less risky as they decline. For long-term investors that are working and buying stocks every two weeks, these declines should be thought of as “a gift from god” (H/T Nick Murray).

I usually stay pretty far away from predictions, but here’s something I feel 86% certain about; stocks will be higher three years from now. That’s what has happened historically following a 52-week closing low, so I’m going to go with that. I’m also 74% certain that the S&P 500 won’t be more than 10% lower than the…
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Monday Market Meltdown – Oil Fears Spook Investors (again)

"We should all fear Oilmageddon!" 

That's the word from CitiBank, which is SUPPOSED to be the voice of reason in these markets. When Banksters tell us to get out of something – it's usually time to get in and, this morning, I put out a Trade Alert to our Members (and tweeted here) to take a long on Oil Futures (/CL) at the $30 line (with tight stops below) as well as lines on various indexes I detailed in the Alert.  

Of course, we warned you last week that the market would likely turn back down and I detailed our hedges on the Ultra-Short S&P ETF (SDS) at $22.50 and mentioned we were long on Gold (/YG Futures) at $1,155 and Silver (/SI Futures) at $14.90 and Natural Gas (/NGK6 May Futures) at $2.15 on Thursday. This morning they are at:

  • SDS $23.70 – up 5.3%
  • Gold $1,180 – up $8,000 per contract 
  • Silver $15 – up $1,250 per contract 
  • Natural Gas $2.27 - up $1,200 per contract

Our one loser (so far) was Copper (/HG Futures), which dropped from $2.12 to $2.075 for a loss of $1,125 per contract. Of course stopping out your losers is important with Futures and we'd be happy to get back in either over $2.10 or off the $2.05 line (with tight stops below).

In Friday morning's post we detailed two major hedges for the S&P (SDS) and the Nasdaq (SQQQ) using the Ultra-Shorts and, of course, those are both paying off like gangbusters as Friday was already a bad day and the markets are following through this morning.  We also detailed a trade idea for Barrick Gold (ABX) to leverage the run in gold – also doing fantastically, thank you!  We're hoping for a bounce but really we're using our bullish future bets, pre-market to lock in the tremendous gains of our index hedges at what we THINK might be the bottom again at 1,850 on the S&P.  

Nattering Naybob had a very good summary of the weeks events, reminding our Members yesterday afternoon of my Wednesday warning that we were simply in a "dead cat bounce" and likely to fall…
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The Federal Reserve – The Deep State’s Central Bank

Courtesy of Bill Bonner at Acting-Man.com

Fighting to Lose

An election has been described as two wolves and one lamb voting on what to have for dinner.

Sheep-On-Voting-For-a-Lion-Or-a-Wolf-On-Election-Day

We’re going to make a difference on election day! Or maybe not…

Actually, there was never any doubt about what was on the menu. An election is really when the wolves scrap over who gets the choicest pieces. To bring new readers fully into the picture… It doesn’t matter who won in Iowa. Major policies are not determined by the voters but by the more or less permanent elite who run the government, aka the “Deep State.”

The Fed is an instrument of the Deep State, not of the people. This sounds conspiratorial. But it doesn’t require any hidden agenda or secret handshakes. Most people want power, money, and status. If you can get control over the government – the only institution that can steal and kill, legally – you’ve got it made. That’s why so much money is spent trying to get elected or to influence public policy.

The U.S. presidential campaign has seen surprisingly strong showings from two “outsiders”: Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Why? As former Congressional staffer turned Deep State whistleblower Mike Lofgren recently told Bonner & Partners Investor Network editor Chris Lowe, it’s because each in his own way warns voters about the wolves. The insiders, according to Trump and Sanders, are predatory and incompetent.

2016-Presidential-Election11

Bernie and the Donald – voters like them because they are seen as the anti-establishment choices. The press decries them as “populists” and “nutcases”, which means they must be doing something right. As an aside, the European press is completely apoplectic over Trump, to our unending amusement.

The Deep State is more predatory and less incompetent than it appears. It fights wars, for example, not to win them… but to lose them. The War on Poverty has been going on for more than 50 years. Still no sign of victory. But it has financed countless careers and retirements of government operatives.

BG-war-on-poverty-50-years-chart-1-825

The resounding “success” of the so-called “war on poverty.”

The War on Drugs has…
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Pros & Cons Of Obama’s $10/Barrel Oil Tax

There is no way that a tax on oil could be a good idea at this time. 

Pros & Cons Of Obama's $10/Barrel Oil Tax

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

With President Obama unveiling his $10/Barrel tax plan to fund government-subsidized public transportatation (versus an individual's choice over his method transportation), we thought a glimpse at the pros and cons of such a choice may be useful…

Weighing factors such as convenience, time commitment, and enviornmental impact, deciding whether to commute via your own fossil-fuel-powered car or government-provided unicorn-fueled public transportation can be difficult.

Here is a side-by-side comparison of the two options…

Source: The Onion





Weekend Reading: The Awakening

Courtesy of Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice

Over the last two months, the deterioration in the economic data has become much more prevalent despite the ongoing hopes of the more “bullishly biased” mainstream media.

Furthermore, as I predicted early last year, the Federal Reserve likely made a mistake in hiking interest rates when the economic and inflationary backdrop were exceedingly weak. 

“The real concern for investors and individuals is the actual economy. There is clearly something amiss within the economic landscape, and the ongoing decline of inflationary pressures longer term is likely telling us just that. The big question for the Fed is how to get out of the potential trap they have gotten themselves into without cratering the economy, and the financial markets, in the process.

It is my expectation, unless these deflationary trends reverse course in very short order, that if the Fed raises rates it will invoke a fairly negative response from both the markets and economy.”

And so…that has come to pass. Of course, for me, since I am deemed a “bear” for being a “realist”, my writings are more like a “tree falling in the woods.”  The only problem is that just because no one hears it, doesn’t mean the damage to individuals isn’t just as real.

This weekend’s reading list is a compilation of articles discussing “The Awakening” by many to the real problems currently plaguing the economy, the markets, and the Fed.

While it is said “it is better to be late than never,” such sentiment doesn’t sit well with individuals when they are told after the fact what they should have known before hand. But then again, since the turn of the century, “getting back to even” has apparently become a new investing strategy.

1) It’s Time To Worry About The Economy by Matt Phillips via Quartz

“And now the brightness in the US appears to be dimming, at least a bit. The latest benchmark update on the US manufacturing sector shows activity continued to decline in January, marking four straight months of contraction. The strong US dollar—it’s up about 13% against the currencies of major trading partners—is a key culprit.”


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Non-Farm Friday – Is America Working?

SPX DAILYWhat a crazy start to 2016!  

Of course, it is no crazier than the 3rd quarter of 2015 so far, when we had our August crash followed by a slow September bounce that led into a mega-rally that closed our year off back at the highs.  At the moment, we are playing with the premise that it's the highs that were wrong – NOT our current 1,900 level on the S&P.  We're not expecting any big rally here – just consolidation

This is nothing new, of course.  Back on December, 2nd, in: "Which Way Wednesday – S&P 2,100 Yet Again," I noted:

The S&P gets to 2,100 and we short /ES Futures at 2,100 (with tight stops above the line) and Russell (/TF) Futures below the 1,200 line and Nikkei (/NKD) Futures below the 20,000 line and then, tomorrow or Friday, I'll tell you how much money we made shorting and you'll say "why do I never catch these great trade ideas" and I'll say it's because you're not patient enough to wait for the pattern to reset itself and just make the obvious play.  

This is the 11th time the S&P has been over 2,100 since May and, so far, it's been like a little money machine for us all year long on the short side.  I know this time may be different and the last 10 times may have been different too, which is why we stop out if we don't get confirmation from the other indexes that things are toppy but, when it works – it's good for $250, $500, $1,000+ PER CONTRACT in the Futures at $50 per point to the downside. 

By the way, I know we've been talking a lot about the Futures lately and that's because our portfolios are mainly in CASH!!!  That means we have plenty on the sidelines to play with and the quick in and out…
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PSW’s Weekly Webinar

 

The latest PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 02-03-16 – is up! Scroll down for a time key to the major topics. 

Major Topics:
 
00:02:16 Checking on the Markets: Russell, OIL, NG, DX
00:07:30 NEWS
00:09:58 Trade ideas
00:30:15 BAC: Stock of the year 2012, trade idea
00:39:40 Checking on the Markets
00:42:01 Exit on Futures, trade idea. Don’t pick the exit, watch the exit.
00:51:05 Options Opportunity Portfolio: Puts
00:59:15 Think or Swim. Pivot point.
01:01:56 SQQ Hedges
01:04:15 GOOG, AAPL
01:04:47 OIL
01:05:30 Checking on the Markets: YG, SI, DX, INDEX, NG, TLT, RB
01:06:41 OIL chart
01:09:56 Commodity pricing the Dollar.
01:10:24 Checking on the Markets: Russell, trade idea, AAPL, NASDAQ
01:15:38 BMY: the options are expensive. Trade ideas.
01:22:01 Checking on the Markets: Russell
01:27:00 What will happen on Monday.
01:28:43 Checking on the Markets: S&P, DOW, NASDAQ, NGK6
01:32:24 TLT
01:40:33 Next Week: China's shutdown.
01:42:08 Checking on the Markets
01:43:21 Nikkei

 





Thrilling Thursday – Another Webinar, Another $1,000 Profit

That's right, we did it again!

Yesterday's Live Trading Webinar was open to the public (see yesterday's post) and, during the session, we found a trade on the Russell 2000 that made $500 per contract and, into the close of the Webinar, we decided to go long on the Nikkei (/NKD) at 16,985, looking to get back to 17,200 and we NAILED IT into the close for a $1,075 per contract win in just hours!  Futures trading is fun – don't be afraid – check out our Options Opportunity Portfolio and get access to all of our Live Trading Webinars.

Also in yesterday's morning post (and on our Twitter feed) I mentioned the Alert we sent out to our Members in the morning, noting the following long plays in the Futures:

  • 1,900 on the S&P (/ES), closed 1,907 – up $350 per contract 
  • 16,100 on the Dow (/YM), closed at 16,320 – up $1,100 per contract 
  • 0.975 on Gasoline (/RB), closed at $1.045 – up $2,940 per contract 
  • $30 on Oil (/CL), closed at $32.50 – up $2,500 per contract

Yes the futures are risky (and we were down before we were up in the Webinar) but they give you a tremendous advantage in volatile markets as you can use them to better balance your portfolio before the market opens or after it closes – rather than sitting and sweating while you wait for the opening bell to trade.  Since we practice a generally Balanced Portfolio Approach at Philstockworld, we mostly play the Futures for fun but the experience we get while having fun really comes in handy when there is an after-hours surprise in the market.  You've probably seen this commercial recently:

And no, it doesn't matter who your broker is (most of us use TD's Think or Swim) but this commercial hits it right on the head – being able to trade the Futures gives you a tremendous edge on the market.  Let's say you only used one of our trade ideas and made just $1,000 yesterday on a single contract.  What percentage of your portfolio is that?  How…
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China’s Year of the Monkees

Confucius, Sun Tzu, China's currency and the Monkees, all together in one post. 

Thoughts from the Frontline: China’s Year of the Monkees

By John Mauldin

“It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop.”

– Confucius

“Be extremely subtle, even to the point of formlessness. Be extremely mysterious, even to the point of soundlessness. Thereby you can be the director of the opponent’s fate.”

– Sun Tzu

While we in the West get used to writing “2016” on our documents, China is getting ready for its own Lunar New Year. Their calendar kicks off the “Year of the Monkey” next month. At the rate they are going, though, Chinese markets look more like that hapless rock band that can’t quite reach the main stage.

China isn’t the only reason markets got off to a terrible start this month, but it is definitely a big factor (at least psychologically). Between impractical circuit breakers, weaker economic data, stronger capital controls, and renewed currency confusion, China has investors everywhere scratching their heads.

When we focused on China back in August (see “When China Stopped Acting Chinese”), my best sources said the Chinese economy was on a much better footing than its stock market, which was in utter chaos. While the manufacturing sector was clearly in a slump, the services sector was pulling more than its fair share of the GDP load. Those same sources have new data now, which leads them to quite different conclusions. If you have exposure to China – which you do if you own just about any stock listed anywhere – you’ll want to read this issue carefully.

Let me remind you, before we delve into China, that the early-bird pricing for my annual Strategic Investment Conference ends next Sunday at midnight. I will admit to taking no small amount of pride in the fact that almost everyone who talks to me about the conference says it’s the best investment conference they have ever attended. I carefully craft a blend of speakers each year to speak to the particular dynamic environment we find ourselves operating in. Attendees who have been to most of the conferences…
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Zero Hedge

Gold Up 12%, Silver Up 11% YTD As Stocks Crash ... Again

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by GoldCore.

Gold Up 12%, Silver Up 11% YTD As Stocks Crash ... Again

Gold jumped 2 percent to a 7-1/2-month high yesterday, briefly touching the psychological level of $1,200 an ounce. Falling bank shares and stock markets and worries over global economic growth and a new financial crisis prompted investors to seek the safety of gold.

After surging over 5% last week, gold and silver continue to move higher as concerns about the U.S. and global economy saw more sharp stock market falls and reduced expectations of the Fed increasing interest rates.

Gold finished the we...



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Phil's Favorites

Invest with a Telescope...Not a Microscope

 

Invest with a Telescope…Not a Microscope

Courtesy of Wade of Investing Caffeine

 

It was another bloody week in the stock market (S&P 500 index dropped -3.1%), and any half-glass full data was interpreted as half-empty. The week was epitomized by a Citigroup report entitled “World Economy Trapped in a Death Spiral.” A sluggish monthly jobs report on Friday, which registered a less than anticipated addition of 151,000 jobs, painted a we...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Let’s Talk About the US Government’s Interest Burden (Pragcap)

Greg Ip had a piece in the Wall Street Journal yesterday discussing the debt burden in the USA and how low interest rates have “moved back” the “hands on the doomsday debt clock”.  The article touches on the important topic of entitlement spending and whether it’s sustainable, but does so in a manner that misleads readers about why this might be a problem.

For instance, Ip says that “higher federal borrowing puts upward pressure on interest rates”.  This is classic “crowding out”,...



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Chart School

Sellers Start Day, Buyers Finish It

Courtesy of Declan.

Tech averages had the weakest start, Powerful gap downs had set things off, but buyers were able to make a comeback into the close. However, morning gaps remain. Volume climbed to register as distribution, which for the Nasdaq was the second day of distribution in a row.


The Nasdaq 100 is on the fiftth day of selling in a row. The August swing low wasn't fully tested. Bulls will be looking for a bullish 'morning star' where today's candlestick 'hammer' is followed by an opening gap, then a rally for the rest of the day. Should this emerge, then a move to test 4,300 is next. If there is a weak open, then any chance for a bullish 'hammer' based on today's action is signifi...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Bugs and S&P 500 break 5-year channels at “Same Time!”

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

S&P 500 has created a series of higher lows and higher highs for the past 5-years! Some would define this as a bull market.

Gold Bugs Index (HUI) has created a series of lower highs and lower lows, for the past 5-years! Some would define this as a bear market.

Hey friends check this out; It appears the S&P is breaking 5-year support and the Gold Bugs index is breaking resistance, at the SAME TIME.

“Super Trends” coming to an end?  The Power of the Patterns sugge...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 8th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Insider Scoop

Buckingham Sees 36% Upside in Virgin America

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related VA Vetr Top Raters Downgrade Spirit Airlines And Virgin America, Still Like Stocks Airlines Could Fall 30% In A Recession Virgin America -5% as sentiment sours (Seeking Alpha)

Buckingham Research slashed its price target and fourth-quarter earnings outlook Virgin America Inc (NASDAQ: ...



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ValueWalk

Why Most Investors Fail in the Stock Market

 

Why Most Investors Fail in the Stock Market

Courtesy of ValueWalk, by  

Throughout the past 30 days of wild volatility, here’s what I didn’t do.

Panic. Worry. Sell.

In fact, the best I did was add to a couple of positions yesterday. The world was already in an uncertain state for the past 3+ years. It’s just that with the market rising, we pushed the issue to the back of our  mind and ignored it.

If you read Howard Marks latest memo, ...



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Digital Currencies

2016 Theme #3: The Rise Of Independent (Non-State) Crypto-Currencies

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith at Of Two Minds

A number of systemic, structural forces are intersecting in 2016. One is the rise of non-state, non-central-bank-issued crypto-currencies.

We all know money is created and distributed by governments and central banks. The reason is simple: control the money and you control everything.

The invention of the blockchain and crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin have opened the door to non-state, non-central-bank currencies--money that is global and independent of any state or central bank, or indeed, any bank, as crypto-currencies are structurally peer-to-peer, meaning they don't require a bank to function: people can exchange crypto-currencies to pay for goods and services without a bank acting as a clearinghouse for all these transactions.

This doesn't just open t...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: New Year brings new hope after bulls lose traction to close 2015

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Chart via Finviz

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last year, the S&P 500 large caps closed 2015 essentially flat on a total return basis, while the NASDAQ 100 showed a little better performance at +8.3% and the Russell 2000 small caps fell -5.9%. Overall, stocks disappointed even in the face of modest expectations, especially the small caps as market leadership was mostly limited to a handful of large and mega-cap darlings.

Notably, the full year chart for the S&P 500 looks very much like 2011. It got off to a good start, drifted sideways for...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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