Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Internal Bleeding, Cheap Tech, And Falling Angels

Courtesy of John Rubino

Think of “market internals” as the blood pressure and insulin levels of the financial world. They operate below the surface, frequently unnoticed, but over time they have a big say in the health of the patient.

And right now they’re pointing to a heart attack.

Let’s start with junk bonds. These are loans to financially and/or operationally-weak companies that because of their weakness have to pay up to borrow. Such bonds have a risk/return profile that’s more akin to equities than to, say Treasury bonds, and they trade accordingly, rising and falling on the likelihood of default rather than their relative yield.

Recession means higher default rates for weak borrowers, so when the economy is slowing down or otherwise hitting a rough patch, the junk bond market is often where it registers first. Lately, junk has been tanking relative to stocks

Chart created by Hussman Funds:

Stocks vs junk

Another widely-followed internal is the relationship between large-cap (i.e., relatively safe) stocks and riskier small caps. When large caps outperform small caps, it’s frequently a sign that the broader economy is weakening. Since September, that’s been happening too:

Large stocks vs small stocks

In general, when market leadership gets extremely narrow — that is, when only a few things are going up and everything else is either flat or falling — trouble ensues. During the late 1990s tech stock mania, for instance, the global economy ended up being supported by the US, whose economy was supported mostly by the NASDAQ, which was supported by just a handful of high-flying tech stocks. When those stocks finally cracked, they took the whole world down with them.

Now something similar is happening, thanks in large part to this cycle’s dominant tech firms, especially Apple. From CNBC:

The days of Apple’s amazing profits may be over

The S&P 500’s profit margin growth over the past five years has been driven largely by tech, and one name in particular: Apple. Unfortunately for the market and for Apple, the days of exceptional expansion may be over.

That’s according to David Kostin of Goldman Sachs, who wrote in a note Monday

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The Trouble With Chasing Hot Strategies


The Trouble With Chasing Hot Strategies

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker

How do most investors (and many advisors) select funds or strategies to allocate to? They look at what’s been working, learn the story and get long. [For the current example, read Zero Hedge's Diversification Is For Dummies – The Nifty Nine Never Mattered More.]

Sometimes they chase a hot manager who’s just made a great call. Larry Robbins nailed the Obamacare trade! Carl Icahn crushed it with Apple and Netflix!

Other times, they chase a hot theme. Currency-hedged European stocks! Gold outperformed the S&P over the last decade! Biotechs have changed the game!

And then there are the strategy chasers. Tony Robbins has a “permanent portfolio”! Dividend Aristocrats are better than bonds! Everyone’s going into passive indexes! My beta is smarter than your beta!

It may continue to work for a period of time, depending on how early or late one shows up to the hoedown – momentum is a well-documented phenomenon, after all.

And then mean reversion shows up – outperforming managers subsequently underperform, hot themes become over-loved, winning strategies become too crowded to offer excess returns. “No problem,” says the advisor, "I’ve got six new ideas to replace the six ideas that are no longer working!”

It’s sad to say, but this is exactly how it works. I’ve been watching this for almost 20 years. The fastest way to know you’re talking to an amateur investor (or an uninformed pro) is to see how much emphasis or meaning they ascribe to things like trailing 12 months of performance. This obsession with “what’s working?” is extremely widespread.

Research Affiliates has an interesting pair of charts demonstrating this phenomenon in a new note from Rob Arnott, Jason Hsu and Co. They illustrate that increasing fund flows are a decent predictor of subsequent underperformance and that performance-chasing is destructive to returns across all types of investment products:

The procyclical or trend-chasing allocation accentuates the underlying economic shocks to various investment styles as flows push valuations. In the short run, this results in self-fulfilling prophecy and momentum. In the long run, it becomes self-defeating and gives rise to mean reversion. This investor

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Diversification Is For Dummies – The Nifty Nine Never Mattered More

Now before you shovel all your money into 2015's winners, be sure to read Joshua Brown's, The Trouble With Chasing Hot Strategies.

Diversification Is For Dummies – The Nifty Nine Never Mattered More

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

From the 4-horsemen of the dotcom exuberance (and apocalypse), to today's so-called FANG and NOSH stocks, and now 'Nifty Nine', investors could be forgiven for ignoring the benefits of stock market diversification that every commission-taking, fee-gathering asset-collector promotes and going all-in on a few 'easy to select' stocks to make the quick buck that everyone believes is their right as an American taxpayer. While the S&P languishes unchanged in 2015, these small groups of overwhelmingly propagandized stocks are up on average over 60%, but with a collective P/E of 45, they are not cheap (and perhaps should remember that when buying this momo, we are all Thanksgiving turkeys).

As The FT reports,

The long bull market in US stocks now in its seventh year, has grown much narrower. Previously dominated by smaller companies (which tend also to do better in the longer run), it is now being led by a handful of large stocks that are beginning to earn their own acronyms.

Some talk about the Fang stocks — Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google — while Ned Davis Research refers to the Nifty Nine, which adds Priceline, Ebay, Starbucks, Microsoft and Salesforce. (Note that Apple appears on neither list.) If made into indices, research by the FT statistics group shows that either of these groupings would have gained about 60 per cent for this year, while the S&P 500 is up about 1 per cent.

What are the implications? The success of the Fangs is a symptom of the rise of a new model for the economy that revolves around services rather than manufacturing.

But it is best not to get carried away. All these companies are richly valued (Ned Davis puts the Nifty Nine’s collective price/earnings ratio at 45, double that of the S&P 500). They also look expensive when compared with their sales.

Hype and excitement around a few big companies, and eclipse for riskier small companies, are classic symptoms of the top of a bull market.

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Fully Stuffed Friday – Markets Popping or Dropping?

SPX DAILYWhat an interesting year it has been.

On the whole, the markets have gone nowhere and it's up to December to either make or break a positive close for 2015.  As you can see from Dave Fry's S&P 500 Chart, we had a big "W" pattern that seems to be leading into an "M" pattern that, on the whole will drag us back down to about 2,000 at some point.

That point, however, plus or minus 2 weeks, will make or break the markets in 2016.  Brokers need to have a good finish to 2015 or their brochures for 2016 investing won't look attractive enough to get customers to pull their cash off the sidelines – especially in a rising rate environment.  At the moment it's "sure bonds were only good for 3% last year but stocks were down" – that's NOT a good way to get baby boomers to cash in their bonds and open a new trading account, is it?  

And Americans are saving.  After all – it's a Recession.  Just because the Government doesn't want to call it a recession and the Corporate Media isn't even allowed to say the word – it doesn't mean it isn't happening and the consumer spending data clearly indicates recessionary behavior has certainly taken hold.

Very sadly, looking at this BLS chart of Consumer Spending, the average family spends more after-tax money than they earn and that really doesn't leave a lot of growth for economic expansion in a country where nearly 70% of our GDP is consumer spending.  Savings is not even a category on this chart – for goodness sakes!  

As we know, less money has gone to gasoline this year and it was hoped that the savings would flow to other spending but that has not been the case as the average 48 year-old consumer is, of course, a little concerned with all this campaign talk about cutting the Social Security checks they expect to begin collecting in 17 years.  

I know this may come as a shock to 9 out of 10 "experts" they trot out on TV to explain things to you but, when you don't raise salaries, then all the consumer can…
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Giving “Thanks” To The Fed – Holiday Dinner Has Never Been More Expensive

Happy Thanksgiving!

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As you’re probably aware, the Fed has a hard time spotting asset bubbles. Just as there was no housing bubble in 2006 according to the honorable and exceptionally “courageous” Ben Bernanke, there’s no bubble in equities today and certainly no ZIRP-induced fixed income bubble either. 

The other thing the Eccles cabal has trouble spotting – and this is of course inextricably linked to an inability to spot speculative excess – is inflation.

Nevermind the fact that housing costs have gone parabolic in places like California and New York and pay no attention to corporate “slack fill” and “weight out” tactics that mask 72% inflation on everything from deodorant, to ground pepper, to Soda Stream refill units, and certainly do not read too much into hyperinflation in the high end art world where $170 million Picassos and Modiglianis clearly indicate that QE-driven rallies in capital markets are driving bored billionaires to push the price of trophy assets into the stratosphere, just stay calm and take solace in the fact that according to the headline numbers, inflation is non-existent. 

Of course you may have a hard time swallowing that (no pun intended) today as you sit down for a hearty holiday feast because your turkey cost nearly 7% more than it did last year. In fact, the whole meal crossed $50 for the first time in history in 2015 and as you can see from the following chart, the total cost is up triple digits since the late eighties. 

So give thanks to the Fed for your meal and remember, it's misleading, negligible core CPI prints that allow the Fed to persist in ZIRP on the way to restoring your 401k which they helped destroy in 2008. 

Oh, and while dinner may be $50 today, it's worth noting that in 1909 – so, before the Fed – it was 50 cents:

PSW’s Weekly Trading Webinar – 11-24-15

The PSW weekly webinar is ready to watch if you missed the live version. Enjoy!

[Subscribe to our YouTube Channel here.]


Major Topics:

00:01:53 Quick look at the stock market.

00:02:47 Markets Overview: Germany, DAX, Nikkei, Euro Stoxx, S&P, $SPX, AMZN, WMT, VMW, EMC, GOOG


00:32:00 IBM: It does a lot of buybacks!

00:41:33 MCD

00:47:04 IBM

00:50:40 IBM: Review Positions

00:55:10 NKE

01:04:41 IBM: puts and bull calls spread

01:10:21 BID

01:22:43 TASR

01:26:20 IBM puts, trade idea

01:29:24 DOLLAR Stronger, GLD, SLV, TLT 

01:30:54 NLY

01:34:00 CIM puts

Why Worry Wednesday – Give Thanks for Invincible Markets

What do we have to be thankful for?  

We should be very thankful that even a horrific terror attack on a major Western city becomes yet another reason to rally the markets.  Oil prices shot up 5% yesterday but we rallied just as hard as we do when they fall – one is good for XOM, CVX and others and the other is good for consumers, whose confidence fell 10% between October and November and that was BEFORE the terrorist attacks we are not at all worried about.  

Sure, what do consumers know?  Their spending barely makes up 70% of our GDP so why pay attention to their mood when there are stocks to buy, right?  Economic Confidence is also fading fast and confirms the poor consumer numbers but hey – we're only 50% lower than we were last December – I'm sure we'll be fine if we just ignore it…

U.S. Economic Confidence Index Components -- Weekly Averages Since November 2014

Norway's Consumer Confidence is also fun to ignore:

Investors probably don't know anything either so we can also ignore State Street's Investor Confidence Index as it re-tests the year's lows.  

See – isn't it fun to ignore things!  Even Europe is ignoring things as their markets are fully recovering from yesterday's drop this morning.  How silly of us to think that any market sell-off would be allowed to stand!  

Clearly our leaders are too TERRIFIED to let the markets even have a normal correction for fear that we all melt-down like China, which has been struggling since October to get it's act together (we're short FXI at $41):

Nobel Prize-Winning Economist, Joe Stiglitz has agreed with my premise (see Friday's post)  that Mario Draghi is full of crap and that his is merely "papering over the cracks that are caused by the faulty design of the currency bloc."  According to Stiglitz (and myself), Draghi's assurances that he will do "whatever it takes" to boost the Euro-Zone's economy simply distracted…
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The only risk that counts


The only risk that counts

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker

If you’re a millennial, your definition of financial risk should be based entirely on the likelihood of losing your job or heading down the wrong career path. Stock market volatility should literally be the last thing on your mind.

Rob Arnott has made the case that the odds of you losing your job go up substantially when the stock market goes down, but it’s important that you separate the two things in your mind when putting away pre-tax money into a retirement account.

In fact, I would argue that stock market volatility should be embraced for the under 35 set. Ostensibly, you’ve got years (decades) of future accumulation ahead of you – why on earth would you be rooting for higher and higher investment markets when you’re a guaranteed buyer for the foreseeable future? Expected returns for an asset class generally rise when prices stagnate or fall. The big open secret of the investment business is that a know-nothing investor with time on his side is in a better position for gains than a brilliant investor, armed with all the tools under the sun, with near-term liabilities to fund.

In this morning’s incredibly helpful BAML US Equity Year Ahead Strategy report, Savita Subramanian & Co tuck in a pair of important charts for younger investors to wrap their heads around. Below, a contrast between the probability of losing money in stocks over the next decade versus the likelihood of negative returns in the bond market. People in their 20’s should only concern themselves with the fixed income portion of their portfolios in terms of having dry powder for strategic rebalances.

Let’s take a look:

The Millennial: stocks for the long term

While Millennials may be a more risk-averse generation, having witnessed the carnage of the global financial crisis and its impact on their parents, this generation has the benefit of long time horizons. As Chart 28 shows, the probability of losing money in the S&P 500 declines markedly as one’s time horizon increases. By contrast, the probability of losing money in bonds as rates rise has been far higher.

Screen Shot 2015-11-24 at 4.05.21 PM Screen Shot 2015-11-24 at 4.05.29 PM

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Trickle Down Tuesday – Markets Pull a Slow Fade into Holiday

SPY  5  MINUTEGoing down!  

You can't draw any conclusions from these low-volume trading days but, in general, stocks have been in retreat and this morning the news of Turkey shooting down a Russian jet fighter did not help the mood one bit as European markets dove 1.5% and our Futures followed down half a point (so far).  

I already sent out a News Alert to our Members and, if you follow us on Twitter, you already saw it – so I won't go over all the details and possible repercussions again.  Needless to say World War III would be kind of a bummer so let's hope things don't escalate.  Fortunately, Vladimir Putin is well known for his diplomatic restraint.

The US State Department has already issued a Global Travel Alert that's likely to put a damper on holiday cheer this year.  Paris is already seeing a slump as airline bookings into the city are down 13% – enough to put a serious dent in the travel industry's bottom line.  I was in NYC this weekend and my children got to see heavily armed police hanging out in Times Square and it was way too easy to get stand-by show tickets on Sunday (but we knew it would be, that's why we decided to go).  Buffett's admonition to "be greedy when others are fearful" applies to more than just stocks…

Brussells has become a complete ghost town as the Government there is hunting for terrorists in the capital – not even the subways are running as the ECB must be protected at all costs, of course.  It is in this environment, amazingly, that I have gotten tons of messages and comments in the past week telling me I'm too bearish and the markets will fly on the biggest Santa Claus Rally of all time.  It really does scare me that so many investors believe in Santa Claus, not to mention the Fed.  

I'm tired of explaining why I'm more comfortable being in CASH!!! into the end of 2015 but David Stockman isn't, so you can hear his interview where he makes the case that the Fed is very
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Sector Detector: Bulls wrest back control of market direction, despite global adversity

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Some weeks when I write this article there is little new to talk about from the prior week. It’s always the Fed, global QE, China growth, election chatter, oil prices, etc. And then there are times like this in which there is so much happening that I don’t know where to start. Of course, the biggest market-moving news came the weekend before last when Paris was put face-to-face with the depths of human depravity and savagery. And yet the stock market responded with its best week of the year. As a result, the key issues dominating the front page and election chatter have moved from the economy and jobs to national security and a real war (rather than police actions) against a blood-thirsty orthodoxy that, as the world now seems to universally understand, cannot be simply contained. It is suddenly better to risk being wrong but strong than to be right but weak.

In any case, the major market indexes have remained undeterred — by either the Fed’s apparent foregone decision to raise the fed funds rate next month or the sudden wave of violence sweeping the globe — as seasonality and a strong technical picture continue to stoke bullish conviction in U.S. stocks. Moreover, our fundamentals-based sector rankings are mostly unchanged.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

First a planeload of Russian tourists is bombed out of the sky. Then Paris is attacked by suicidal murderers. Then Mali gets the same. Now Brussels is in lockdown. This is not just a containment problem any longer (not that it ever really was). The civilized world seems to be coming together in the conviction that we are at war with a blood-thirsty ideology bent on religious and ethnic cleansing that would sooner see the entire world annihilated…
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Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Here's your complete preview of this week's big market-moving events (Business Insider)

It's the first week of the last month of 2015, and that means there's a lot of economic data on deck.

First, we'll get finalized numbers on Thanksgiving weekend and Black Friday sales. Preliminary estimates from RetailNext and ShopperTrak show sales were down in the low single-digits.

Think of Debt as Pollution (Bloomberg View)


more from Ilene


Swing trading portfolio - week of November 30th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Zero Hedge

Paul Craig Roberts Rages At The "Arrogance, Hubris, & Stupidity" Of The US Government

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

On the heels of the Chinese stock market plunging 5.5%, continued turmoil in the Middle East and the price of gold hitting 5 year lows, former U.S. Treasury official, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts told Eric King of King World News that Putin and the Russians are now dominating in Syria and the Middle East as the West destroys itself.

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts:  “It could well be that this is going to work out so much in Russia’s favor that Putin will send a letter of thanks to the Turkish President and say, &lsquo...

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Digital Currencies

The Bitcoin Universe Explained

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As evidenced by the Greek, Chinese, and now Argentine 'jumps', the world remains increasingly aware of the inevitable worth of fiat currencies and fears the desperate acts of governments as the react to that reality (and is looking for alternatives).

This infographic explains the wide ranges of the Bitcoin universe, accompanied with quotes from some of its best-known business leaders.

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist ...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

The Fed just tweeted a brutal chart showing the sorry state of US department stores (Business Insider)

It's Black Friday, which means American consumers everywhere are knocking down doors in their efforts to take advantage of what they perceive to be a good deal.

Oil prices fall more than 3% as dollar and oversu...

more from Paul

Kimble Charting Solutions

Does Black Friday Matter For Gains The Rest Of The Year?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We are entering one of the most bullish times of the year historically.  As we mentioned last week, the final 30 trading days of the year have been higher each of the last 12 years.


Getting to today, it is Black Friday – the official start to the holiday spending season.  We’ve seen many stats that show this day isn’t quite as important as it once was.  From many sales now starting on Thanksgiving, to Cyber Monday this coming Monday – there are other times people are looking for the best deals.  None the less,...

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Chart School

Greatest risk to the stock market is?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Nope it is not interest rates, nope it is not Donald Trump, it is!

It is the CRUDE OIL crash, simple!

Jim Willie has good comments in the first 40 min of this pod cast.

Energy company ...
- Debt is blowing up (See energy element of HYG).
- Hedging at oil $100 is coming to an end.
- Iran coming back to the market, more supply.
- Saudi still providing massive supply.
- Oil tankers holding oil parked in the ocean are coming in to harbor to unload
- US dollar strength supports lower oil prices
- World wide DEMAND slump for energy or deflation.
- More oil being sold outside the US Dollar
- The Oil futures can not be manipulated easily as folks actually ...

more from Chart School

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sector Detector: Bulls wrest back control of market direction, despite global adversity

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Some weeks when I write this article there is little new to talk about from the prior week. It’s always the Fed, global QE, China growth, election chatter, oil prices, etc. And then there are times like this in which there is so much happening that I don’t know where to start. Of course, the biggest market-moving news came the weekend before last when Paris was put face-to-face with the depths of human depravity and savagery. And yet the stock market responded with its best week of the year. As a result, the key issues dominating the front page and election chatter have moved from the economy and jobs to national security and a real war (rather than police ...

more from Sabrient


PSW is more than just stock talk!


We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more! features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...

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Whitney Tilson On LL, EXACT, And Martin Shkreli


Whitney Tilson On LL, EXACT, And Martin Shkreli

Courtesy of Value Walk

1) The shares of one of my largest short positions (~3%), Exact Sciences, crashed by more than 46% yesterday. Below is the article I published this morning on SeekingAlpha, explaining why I think it’s still a great short and thus shorted more yesterday. Here’s a summary:

  • The U.S. Preventative Services Task Force’s Colorectal Cancer Screening Draft Recommendation issued yesterday is devastating for Exact Sciences’ only product, Cologuard.
  • I think this is the beginning of the end for the company.
  • My price target for the stock a year from now is $3, so I shorted more yes...

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Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...

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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 


more from M.T.M.

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

Thank you for you time!

FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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