Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Monday Market Meltdown – Thriving on Chaos

This is the end 
My only friend, the end 

Of our elaborate plans, the end 
Of everything that stands, the end 
No safety or surprise, the end 

Well, we couldn't be happier.

I'm sorry if you're reading this and you are losing money in this downturn – clearly you're not one of our Members as we had a very happy Friday in our Live Member Chat Room talking about all those juicy opportunities as we watched the herd of market gazells panic into the canyon, where we have them completely surrounded.  

We cashed out the last of our risk on June 7th and I discussed it in our morning post on June 8th, while the Dow was hitting 18,000 and everyting still seemed awesome.  My comment at the time was:

That's right, the Dow hit 18,000 and we took the money and ran, closing out over half of our uncovered Long-Term Portfolio positions, pretty much everything that was up 40% or more, getting our CASH!!! off the table just in time to take a 2-week trading vacation ahead of the June 23rd Brexit vote.  It's so much easier to take your money off the table while things are still going up – you get much better prices from all the suckers who are still buying (they are called "bagholders" by market professionals).

If you are one of those bagholders, I am truly sorry but not for my lack of warning you as we had been talking about Brexit and the potential repercussions for a good month before that yet the market kept on rallying but we expected a market correction regardless for solid, FUNDAMENTAL reasons and, as I said at the time:

SOMETHING is going to hit the fan this summer.  After the Brexit vote, even if the UK remains, then we will turn our attention to Brazil with 6 weeks to the Olympics (Aug 5th) that country and their disastrous economy (World's 5th largest) will be in the news constantly – as will fears of the Zika virus, which is bad enough that 150 experts petitioned the World Health Organization to postpone or move the Olympics to avoid a possible global pandemic


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Brexit Briefing

 

Brexit Briefing

Courtesy of Wade of Investing Caffeine

Pair of British Briefs

Pair of British Briefs

There is no shortage of Brexit articles, but as I compile information for my monthly newsletter later this week (subscribe at Investing Caffeine – right column), here are some of my favorite links:

1) How to Make Sense of the Brexit Turmoil (FiveThirtyEight)

2) Brexit Meltdown Charts (Ritholtz)

3) House of Commons UK-EU Economic Relations Report (Parliament Research Briefings)

4) What is Article 50 and why is it so central to the Brexit debate? (The Guardian)

5) The Difference Between the EU and Euro Zone (Moody’s)

6) Brexit’s First 100 Days (Bloomberg)

7) Brexit Impact on Wimbledon Paychecks (Fox Sports)

8) Relationship Between the U.K., Britain, England, Great Britain, Ireland, Northern Island, Wales, and British Isles (Project Britain)

9) Brexit Voting Results by Age (Ben Riley-Smith – Twitter)

10) Brexit Impact on Global Economy (Wall Street Journal)

11) Brexit is Not the End of the World (Calafia Beach Pundit)

 

Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®, www.Sidoxia.com

Plan. Invest. Prosper. 





The Market’s Response To Crisis

 

The Market’s Response To Crisis

Courtesy of 

The most important thing long-term investors need to see today is the market’s response to crisis, courtesy of Dimensional Funds.

Screen Shot 2016-06-24 at 9.22.05 AM

The chart above should put the Brexit in perspective. Nobody knows yet what the implications will be, but I’m pretty confident that this is no more significant than any of the six events above. Now of course there are never any guarantees, that’s what risk means. And if you need the money in the next five years, you should not be subjecting it to the risk of the stock market anyhow.

I’m a believer in practicing what I preach, so today in my personal account, I added to the international side of my portfolio. This is definitely not a market call, I am not suggesting the bottom is in, but I also know not to look a gift horse in the mouth. When an entire index falls ten percent in a day, you hold your nose and hit the buy button. Investing is all about giving your future self a chance at a better life, and it’s days like today that determine whether or not you’ll be able to do so via the stock market.

I’m invoking article 50 and resurrecting a Warren Buffett quote, who had this to say when clients reached out to him after stocks fell in 1966:

After the Dow declined from 995 at the peak of February to about 865 in May, I received a few calls from partners suggesting that they thought stocks were going a lot lower. This always raises two questions in my mind: (1) if they knew in February that the Dow was going to 865 in May, why didn’t they let me in on it then and (2) if they didn’t know what was going to happen during the ensuing three months back in February, how do they know in May? There is also a voice or two after any hundred point or so decline suggesting we sell and wait until the future is clearer. Let me again suggest two points: (1) the future has never been clear to me (give us a call when the next few months are


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T (Told You So) GIF – Brexit Victory Rocks the Market

Prime Minister David Cameron said he would resign after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. He said a new leader will be in place by October.Wheeeeeee – what fun! 

What do you want me to say?  I could not possibly have warned you more, I couldn't possibly have said CASH!!! or "Cashy and Cautious" one more time without sounding like an idiot and I could not have given out more hedging ideas or better shorting lines on the Futures to save you from being "surprised" by the vote by the UK to leave the EU and the market repercussions we're seeing today.  In fact, right in yesterday's morning post I told you:  

Nice test of 2,100 on /ES, which is a good shorting line along with 17,8000 on /YM, 4,450 on /NQ and 1,160 on /TF and 16,600 on /NKD is ridiculous since the Dollar is down half a point (93.23) but safer to short the US indexes since the Dollar coming back would be good for /NKD.

This morning I called longs on our indexes in a 3:38 am Alert to our Members and we caught a nice move up and I'm not even going to talk about how profitable yesterday's Futures shorting ideas were since it seems like crazy, unrealistic money when you catch a 5% correction and, anyway, if you missed it – it's not like these happen every day, week, month or year.

That's why I was making such a big deal about it – how often are we able to get ourselves ahead of a major market correction?  As I have been saying, the RISK of the market making new highs and us regretting missing a bit of a move higher were/are nothing compared to the REWARD we now have from flipping short and moving to CASH!!!, where we now get to go bargain-hunting on all those stocks people are panicking out of.

We're in no hurry to do anything, however – let the chips fall where they may over the weekend and we'll see how sentiment is running over the weekend.  Our morning longs have already stopped out and, on the whole, the S&P
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It’s All Over As “Leave” Wins Brexit Referendum: Markets Everywhere Are Crashing

 

It's All Over As "Leave" Wins Brexit Referendum: Markets Everywhere Are Crashing

Courtesy of Zero Hedge 

Final update to this historic post, just to make it official:

  • BREXIT VOTE-LEAVE HAS WON MORE THAN 16.784 MLN VOTES, ENOUGH TO GUARANTEE VICTORY IN EU REFERENDUM – BBC FIGURES

* * *

Update 12:15 PM – Turmoil…

 

Dow Futures are down 800 points from the post-close highs…

 

As Cable crashes to 30 year lows…

 

And Treasury yields crash to 2016 lows…

 
 

This is the 2nd biggest percentage drop in 10Y Yields ever…

 

Update 11:50 PM: And now comes the global market panic:

  • S&P 500 FUTURES TUMBLE 4.5 PERCENT, DOWN 99 POINTS
  • GOLD 1350
  • TREASURIES EXTEND GAIN; 10-YEAR YIELD DROPS BELOW 1.50%, 12 BPS FROM ALL TIME LOW
  • JAPAN'S 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO RECORD MINUS 0.215%
  • CIRCUIT BREAKER KICKS IN FOR NIKKEI FUTURES, TRADING HALTED FOR  10 MINS FOR JAPAN STOCK FUTURES
  • INDIA RBI SAID TO SELL DOLLARS TO CURB RUPEE'S DROP: TRADERS
  • EUR/CHF EXTENDS DROP BELOW 1.0700, FIRST TIME SINCE AUG. 2015

Also by Zero Hedge:

Morgan Stanley Explains "What Leave Means" (Spoiler Alert: A Lot Of Pain For The Longs)

With the voting out of the way, the only thing left is the crying. Oh, and the margin calls which start in just a few hours. And, alongside all of that, forecasts of doom that have to comply with all the scaremongering that was unleashed over the past few months as part of the Remain campaign. Sure enough, here is Morgan Stanley's Andrew Sheets explaining "What Leave Means."

It's not pretty. Here is the summary answer:

We see GBP moving to 1.25-1.30 and 15-20% downside to European equities relative to Thursday's levels. Corporate and sovereign credit present the best opportunities to buy


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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 06-22-16

It's ready!

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar – 06-22-16

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. You can subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here

For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!

This Week's Topics

00:02:09 “Risk off”
00:04:14 Checking on the Markets: CL
00:05:09 Oil Trade Ideas, Contracts
00:14:16 UNG Trade Ideas
00:20:35 Oil Trade Ideas
00:26:35 Checking on the Markets: CL, DX, RB. Trade Ideas
00:38:53 Taker States
00:45:35 Checking on the Markets: CL, RB
00:48:27 UK Bookies betting Brexit will fail; Brexit is a big smoke screen
01:02:29 Greece interest chart
01:06:34 If UK leave the other country will get off they all wanna leave
01:08:57 Checking on the Markets: CL, RB. Trade Ideas
01:15:54 Checking on the Markets: DOW, NASDAQ, RUSSEL, CL, RB, NG, NKD, DX, YG, SI, HG
01:18:46 Options Opportunity Portfolio
01:21:19 It’s not about money, it’s about Time –Phil
01:29:40 Futures
01:34:10 More Trade Ideas…
01:37:34 Compound Rate Calculator
01:42:00 Forbes 400 source of wealth





O Brexit Day! Callooh! Callay!

"And, has thou slain the Jabberwock?

  Come to my arms, my beamish boy!

O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!'

  He chortled in his joy.

`Twas brillig, and the slithy toves did gyre and gimble in the wabe.  All mimsy were the borogoves, and the mome raths outgrabe.

Yep, that's about how much sense the morning run makes as the UK heads to the polls on Brexit day.  Early exit polls show the Remain camp with a slight lead and our indexes have rocketed back to their highs, where we've taken the opportunity to short them this morning.  My note to our Members in our Live Chat Room was:

Nice test of 2,100 on /ES, which is a good shorting line along with 17,8000 on /YM, 4,450 on /NQ and 1,160 on /TF and 16,600 on /NKD is ridiculous since the Dollar is down half a point (93.23) but safer to short the US indexes since the Dollar coming back would be good for /NKD.

For our Futures, we're shorting at the 1% lines and expecting at least a small pullback off the EU's 2.5% lines to pull us back a bit.  /NKD is happy because it's the Euro and Pound driving down the Yen, not the Dollar..

It's very easy to play the Futures.  We had a Live Trading Webinar yesterday and we made $475 in 30 minutes just demonstrating it (we were long Oil (/CL) and Gasoline (/RB) Futures at the time, now short oil at $50 with tight stops above).  

Why are we shorting?  Aside from the obvious technical reason, the initial reaction is often an over-reaction and there is NO WAY that they can be certain of the vote since they haven't even begun to count yet.  In fact, per this chart of the UK announcements, we won't hear the first official count until 5pm EST, as the polls don't even close until 10pm in the UK and it won't be until 5am UK (midnight EST) that 75% of the votes are counted…
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Five-Word Financial Advice for New Graduates

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker

Morgan Housel did a thing where he asked a bunch of us for simple advice, in a five-word sentence, for the new graduating class of 2016 – about 3 million Americans.

I actually found the assignment to be pretty easy, my five-word advice popped into my head immediately. And it’s something I wish was explained to me when I was 18.

Click over to Morgan’s article for my advice, plus some words of wisdom from Eddy Elfenbein, Cullen Roche, Ben Carlson, Sam Ro and others:

Simple Financial Advice for New Grads (Motley Fool) 

Screenshot from Simple Financial Advice for New Grads (Motley Fool) 





Today, John Lewis Stood Up for Human Dignity Once Again

 

[Watch live coverage of sit-in at C-span.]

Today, John Lewis Stood Up for Human Dignity Once Again

Courtesy of  and

This post first appeared on BillMoyers.com.

On March 7, 1965, 25-year-old John Lewis, already a veteran of the Freedom Rides, Mississippi’s Freedom Summer and Martin Luther King Jr.’s March on Washington, walked ahead of 600 civil rights activists as they crossed the Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma, Alabama, on the first leg of what was meant to be a peaceful march for voting rights.

As they stepped off the end of the bridge, a posse of 150 state troopers and deputy sheriffs attacked them, wielding clubs, bullwhips and tear gas. Lewis was beaten to within an inch of his life. But he took the horrible pummeling of  “Bloody Sunday” and survived to lead another march a week later. This time they kept going — all the way to the state capitol in Montgomery, 50 miles away.

Fifty-one years later, on the floor of the House of Representatives Wednesday, John Lewis, now 76 and a member of Congress for nearly three decades, took another courageous and principled stand. Many of his Democratic colleagues joined him for a sit-in on the floor of the House chamber itself, the same kind of protest he and his fellow activists used so effectively during the 1960s.

This time they were agitating against one of the most grievous human rights horrors of all: the gun violence running amok in America, including the recent abomination of 49 deaths at that nightclub in Orlando, Florida. There have been nearly 100,000 gun deaths in the United States since the school murders in Newtown, Connecticut, just three and a half years ago.

In Selma in 1965, television cameras sent pictures of what was happening on the Pettus Bridge around the country and a shocked American public took to heart how deep the wounds remained between black and white. On Wednesday, Republican House leadership, as cruel and cold-of-heart as…
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Which Way Wednesday – Waiting on Yellen and Brexit

What a boring week so far.  

As you can see from the UK's FTSE chart, we are just squeezing into tomorrow's Brexit decision and it's the same in all the World's markets as we await the decision of British voters whether they will leave the sinking ship that is the European Union or whether they will risk it striking out on their own – a tough call given the very turbulent economic waters the Global Economy is in at the moment

This morning, Credit Suisse (CS) becomes the umpteenth Bankster to issue a dire warning of the potential consequences of a Brexit, predicting 2,000 on the S&P if the Brexit goes through.  Of course, we're only at 2,088 so -4% doesn't seem all that dire to me and their target is 2,150 without the Brexit so +/- 4% puts them right in-line with our Big Chart prediction – and we didn't need no stinkin' Brexit to hit our numbers!  

Speaking of numbers, our Options Opportunity Portfolio exploded, jumping $13,626 (13.6%) this week as our ship came in on TLT (we were short), USO (long), FCX (long), TGT (long), UNG (long), AAPL (long), HOV (long), LL (long), TASR (long) and UCO (long).  While this was going on our hedges (TZA, SQQQ, SJB) did not suffer much damage so it's been all good this week and we are now miles ahead of our goal of making 5% per month as we began this portfolio Aug 8th of last year.  

Of course it's easy come, easy go in the markets but I think we're well-balanced enough to let it ride as we're well-hedged for the Brexit and it doesn't seem too likely it will happen and, if not, we'll be loving our longs – none of which seem too overbought.  UNG, of course, is our Trade of the Year and we made a very heavy play in February, playing for a July high of $8 – that trade alone is going to return $10,000 on a $1,700 bet for an $8,300 profit (488%) since our February 26th entry.  



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Zero Hedge

Earthquakes Cause Giant Natural Gas Field To Cut Production By 44%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Dave Forest via OilPrice.com,

Europe just lost a big chunk of production from one of its most critical natural gas fields, and not for any of the usual reasons — technical problems, pipeline constraints, or terrorist disruptions.

These cuts are due to earthquakes.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Death to All Zombies!

Courtesy of James Howard Kunstler

Wait a minute. They’re already dead. Brexit just reveals that not everybody’s brains have been eaten. A viral contagion now threatens the zombified institutions of daily life, especially the workings of politics and finance. Just as zombies exist only in the collective imagination, so do these two principal activities of society operate mainly on trust, an ephemeral product of the hive-mind.

When things fall apart in stressed complex systems, they tend to fall apart fast. It’s called phase change. Too many things in 21st century life have depended on sheer trust that the people-in-charge know what they are doing. That trust has subsisted on the doling out of money-from-nothing: debt, reckless bond issuance. TARP, QEs, bailouts, bail-ins, Operation Twists, Ponzi schemes… ...



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Chart School

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook: Overall Decline in June

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for June. The latest general business activity index increased in June after two months of decreases. The General Activity index came in at -18.3, up from -20.8 in April. Other measures of manufacturing activity reflected continued declines.

Here is an excerpt from the latest report:

Texas factory activity declined again in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - Week of June 27th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Why Brexit Really Is a Big Deal for the U.S. Economy (Time)

Politicians and technocrats of all stripes are trying to reassure Americans that Britain’s vote last week to leave the EU won’t affect them economically. They are wrong.

Brexit has already caused a number of dominos to fall

World leaders and economic experts react: Brexit is 'as significant as post-9/11' (B...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Global Leading Indicators, testing 6-year rising support channels

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Long before last weeks Brexit vote, Germany’s DAX index has been an upside and downside global stock market leader, over the past few years. Below looks at the pattern the DAX has created over the past decade.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Since mid 2009 the DAX has remained inside of rising channel (A). The top of this channel was hit in April of 2015. Since hitting rising channel resistance, the DAX has ...



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ValueWalk

Two Centuries of Parasitic Economics

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The work of independent scholar, Basil Al-Nakeeb, ‘Two Centuries of Parasitic Economics: The Struggle for Economic and Political Democracy on the Eve of the Financial Collapse of the West’ walks readers through a chronology of flawed economic thought and the inferior theories produced as a result. But Al-Nakeeb takes his arguments one step further – by proposing an alternative and efficient macroeconomic blueprint built on a foundation of efficient taxes, finance and fair, just political democracy.

Two Centuries of Parasitic Economics: The Struggle for Economic and Political Democracy on the Eve of the Financial Collapse of the West

Basil Al-Nakeeb poses many stark...



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Mapping The Market

Thoughts on Brexit

I have mixed feelings about Brexit today. Clearly the European institution need reforming. The addition of so many countries in the last 20 years has created a top heavy administration. The Euro adds more complexities to the equation as the ECB policies cannot fit every country's problem. On the other hand, a unified Europe has advantages as well – some countries have benefited from the integration.

For Britain, it's hard to say what the final price will be. My guess is that Scotland might now vote for independence as they supported staying in Europe overwhelmingly. Northern Ireland might be tempted to leave as well so possibly RIP UK in the long run. I was talking to some French people and they were saying that now there might be no incentive for France to stop immigrants from crossing over to the UK like they do now and simply allow for travel there and let the UK deal with them. The end game is not clear to anyone at the moment....



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles 10%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One week ago, when bitcoin first crossed above $700 on the seemingly insatiable Chinese buying which we forecast last September (when bitcoin was trading at $230) would take place as a result of China's capital controls (to much pushback by the "mainstream" financial media), we tried to predict what may happen next. We said that "it could go much higher. That said, anyone who bought last September when the digital currency was trading at $230 may be advised to take some profits, and at least make...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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