That's what we got from our Fed yesterday in a statement that held no new action and not indication of when there would be action and nothing is no longer good enough to sustain record high market levels – especially with the very mediocre earnings that are being delivered in the broad markets.
As you can see from the Fear and Greed Index, the greed is still fairly extreme and the complacency is extreme too with the VIX down under 15 this morning and Treasuries (TLT), which we're short on, are still up at the $140 line post-Fed – as if they still might turn around and loosen further than they already have.
Arguing for the loose camp, the Atlanta Fed released their GDP Now Forecast for the end of July and Q2 has been downgraded 40% from 3% to now 1.8% over the course of the month so now we understand why the Fed didn't raise rates yesterday – the economy is much worse off than people have been supposing!
Since the BS upgrades began (which we said were BS all the way up) in May, the Dow has gained 1,000 points, from 17,500 to 18,500 and the S&P is up from 2,050 to 2,165 and those are both ridiculous in a flat economy and it was these RIDICULOUS upgrades to GDP outlook that acted as the catalyst to turn us around in the first place! Here's my commentary on the subject from May 27th (GDP Friday – Yellen Spins Us Into the Holiday Weekend):
…now we have the Atlanta Fed providing supporting data as they have raised their GDP Now forecast by 100% this month.
Forget the fact that the core Durable Goods were terrible or that Auto Sales are falling off or that Consumer Comfort is
Anything can happen. At least, more things than you can imagine can happen.
Facebook, after trouncing yet another quarter’s earnings report, has now climbed to a market value greater than that of Berkshire Hathaway. It may be temporary, it may be forever. Regardless, at the current moment, a ten year old company with few physical assets and a small amount of employees is now worth more than an empire built by Warren Buffett over the course of 50 years.
How many people had the imagination to picture something like this as being within the realm of possibilities, let alone a likelihood?
Masha Gessen writes about our lack of imagination regarding graver things at the New York Review of Books:
Lack of imagination is one of our greatest handicaps as humans and as citizens. Mikhail Khodorkovsky, one of the richest men in the world, could not imagine that Putin would put him in jail, and this was one of the reasons he ignored repeated warnings and stayed in Russia. Then he spent ten years in a Russian prison. David Cameron could not imagine that his fellow citizens would vote to secede from the European Union, so he called for a referendum. Soon after the vote last month, pundits in both the UK and the US regrouped and started reassuring themselves and their audiences that the UK will not really leave the EU—because they can’t imagine it. I have spent much of this year arguing with my American friends about Donald Trump. Even after Trump had won enough delegates to lock up the Republican nomination, reasonable, well-informed people insisted that some Republican savior would swoop in and reclaim that party. There was little, if any, evidence in favor of that kind of outcome, but for a brief moment many Americans seemed to believe in the unlikely rather than the obvious. Why?
“I just can’t imagine Trump becoming the nominee,” many said at the time. But a lack of imagination is not an argument: it’s a limitation. It is essential to
As you can see on the chart, it's been a muted reaction by the Yen so far as we wait for details on Abe's plan, wait for our own Fed to make a decision (2pm) and then wait for the BOJ's decision on Friday so a lot of waiting is in our immediate future and, meanwhile, let's talk about yesterday and yesterday's FANTASTIC call to short the Futures at:
18,450 on the Dow (/YM), low was 18,311 for a $659 per contract gain
2,165 on the S&P (/ES), low was 2,154 for a $550 per contract gain
4,650 on the Nasdaq (/NQ), low was 4,640 for a $200 per contract gain
The Russell never went below our shorting line at 1,205 but we ran up to 1,213 and I called a short there in our Live Member Chat room and we caught a dive back to 1,205 for an $800 per contract gain on that one – TWICE!
Today we're looking much higher with the Russell over 1,215, Dow 18,450 again, S&P 2,167.50 and the Nasdaq is testing 4,700 (/NQ Futures) thanks to an upside surprise from Apple's earnings report. AAPL is a key long at PSW and yesterday morning I said to our Members:
AAPL/Selozi – Talk about stupidly undervalued stocks. I hope AAPL misses so we can double down on our longs but expectations are so low, I'm not sure they can miss them. 36 analysts cover this stock and they are expecting just $42Bn in sales, off 15% from last year's $49.6Bn. Will be very interesting to see what actually happens but the stock is already down 30% from last summer's $130, even though they
It helps provide a realistic timeframe for holding certain instruments.
It helps put the various risks of those instruments in the right perspective.
The thing about bonds is that they pay a specific coupon. So, a 10 year T-Bond paying 2.5% will pay you 2.5% for the next 10 years. If you have a 10 year time horizon then you can virtually guarantee that you’ll get 2.5% per year plus your principal upon maturity. That creates a really clean linear relationship between the time of issuance and maturity. In other words, if you buy the bond today and wake up in 10 years it will look like the bond exposed you to zero permanent loss risk over that time period. I apply the same sort of thinking to the stock market in my paper by calculating a 25 year duration. The stock market, is a lot like a super long maturity bond paying 8-10% per year.¹
Of course, that’s not how bonds (or most other financial instruments) work. They do expose you to the risk of permanent loss in the short-term. And the big problem with low yielding bonds is that they expose you to a lot of potential interest rate risk which creates a lot of short-term risk. If you’re uncertain about your time horizon or you’re worried about generating a positive real return then holding that 10 year bond for 10 years might feel really uncomfortable. This is why I say that the current low yield environment has turned every bond investor into a trader. You’d have to be nuts to buy a long maturity bond and actually hold it to maturity when the risk of a negative real return looks high.
What I most like about thinking of everything like a bond is applying the concept of price compression. You might remember a post I wrote back in 2014 describing the price compression in Biotech stocks. Biotech stocks are akin to a super…
That's our shorting line on the S&P 500 Futures (/ES) and the significant line below that is the S&Ps 15% line on our Big Chart at 2,127.50 so that's the range we'll be looking for if we're going to have the beginnings of a proper correction. Anything less than that is just a blip as we consolidate for (and I hate to say it) a move higher.
Of couse, we don't need to go all the way back to 2,127.50 to make money. Last Thursday, we laid out our shorting lines from our Live Member Chat Room, right in the morning post and they were (and still are):
18,500 is lined up with 2,165 on /ES, 4,650 on /NQ and 1,205 on /TF, we want to see them all below to play a short.
Then on Friday, I noted we made a profit of $500 per contact at 2,155so of course we did it again when the levels broke again yesterday. Learning to make money in the markets is a lot like learning to be a great stage performer – you learn your part, do it well and then learn to consistently repeat your performance over and over again. Much like most rock bands – no one in the audience is interested in your new stuff – just play the hits please!
S&P Futures expire in September and sentiment has them trailing the actual index, which finished at 2,168.50, 6.50 above the Futures levels, so keep that 6.5-point difference in mind when we're looking at the S&P chart and talking about the headline levels vs. the Futures.
As you can see from the hourly S&P chart, yesterday's 13-point dip hardly registers in the bigger picture and we're still costing along the upper end of the 50-hour moving average at the top end of the bullish range. It's going to take more than a blip like that to scare off the dip buyers – who have been rewarded by the Fed(s) for their aggressive behavior pretty much since 2009!
There's not much to do but watch and wait ahead of our Fed's announcement on Wednesday afternoon and the BOJ on Friday morning and we can expect to drift along near the highs at least until we year from our own Central Bank tomorrow.
Unlike the wicked witch, who uttered that phrase during the previous Global Depression, liquidity has been good for the markets so far as the World is swimming in it and, even this week, more is expected from the Bank of Japan on Friday. The entire G20 got together this weekend and promised to use "all policy tools" to lift global growth:
"While the weekend's signals from the G20 meeting in China were welcome, investors were bracing for a hectic week that includes a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, European bank stress tests and what could be another super-sized slug of stimulus from Japan. 'The Bank of Japan is really the one that is front and centre this time with the all talk around 'helicopter money," said TD's Richard Kelly, "if they disappoint, which I think is probably more likely, then we are likely to see risk assets coming off.'"
I've been calling for CASH!!! all summer and so far, so wrong on that one as we make fresh record highs pretty much every day since the Brexit but now Goldman Sachs (GS) has decided to agree with me, putting out their own 5-point warning to clients:
Valuations are already at historical extremes. The S&P 500 trades at a forward P/E of 17.6x, ranking in the 89th percentile since 1976. At 18.4x, the median constituent ranks in the 99th percentile. Most other metrics such as P/B, EV/EBITDA, and EV/Sales paint a similar picture. These valuations are only justifiable because of the historically low interest rate environment.
Zero profit growth is not consistent with high stock valuations. Sluggish global growth and low inflation along with negative interest rate policies in Europe and Asia have led to record low US bond yields. Consistent with this backdrop, 2Q results will show the seventh consecutive quarter of declining year/year operating EPS (-3%, but +1% ex-Energy). Despite near-record margins, adjusted S&P 500 EPS have been flat for three straight years.
Many Financials will have lower profits if low interest rates persist. Historically low yields squeeze the net interest income of banks and make liabilities harder to meet for insurance companies. Our Bank equity research team this week cut their EPS forecasts by 5%-7%. The fall in Treasury yields explains most
The S&P Mid-Cap Index is trading in the tightest 8-day range in over 20 years; is a big move imminent?
Yesterday, we wrote about the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s rare streak of 7 consecutive all-time highs since its long-awaited breakout. However, scanning the broad equity landscape, it appears that consolidation has been more the norm since the market’s last big up day on July 12. This consolidation is demonstrated by the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index as clearly as any space. Specifically, the 7-day range in the index spans less than 1 percent for just the 8th time ever. And, at precisely 1.00%, the 8-day range is the narrowest in more than 20 years. In fact, all of the historically tighter ranges occurred in the low-volatility early to mid-1990′s period.
So what are the implications of this tight range? Well, it is generally thought that exceptionally tight ranges lead to out-sized moves once the range is broken. The notion is that the action is akin to a coiled spring that, when released, expends its considerable pent-up energy. And, generally, we have found that to be the case with breakouts from similar ranges. However, it also depends on the type of environment we are in as well.
From 1992-1995, for example, the daily average true range in the S&P 400 averaged about 0.65%, an exceptionally low level. Thus, we should not be surprised to see that most of the historically tight trading ranges took place during that period. We also should not be surprised to see that the tight ranges of that era did not always lead to out-sized moves.
On the other hand the average true range during past 4 years has averaged around 1.30%, or about double that of the early-1990′s period. Therefore, when we see an unusually tight range like we are seeing now, it is not unreasonable to expect a sizable move once the tight range is broken.
Additionally, in an environment like the present, a tight range or consolidation is often representative of a continuation pattern.
While the markets have indeed broken out to new highs, as I addressed earlier this week, it has done so without a significant improvement in the fundamentals. However, the breakout, such as it is, should not be dismissed or ignored. The technical underpinnings have improved enough to warrant an increase in equity related exposure given a proper entry point in the days or weeks ahead. Such an entry point would require a relaxation of the extreme short-term overbought conditions that currently exist. But a violation of critical support would negate the breakout and return the market back to a more bearish posture.
The potential for such a pullback is extremely high. As Tom McClellan noted recently, the “14-day Choppiness Index,” which tracks the path of a short-term trend, suggests Wall Street’s “uptrend is getting tired.” As McClellan notes, the very linear path for the index implies that the trend is likely to come to an end soon, while more volatile, or choppy, action suggests the opposite. A low reading in McClellan’s index signals a fairly straight-line, or linear, move. And presently, his choppiness index is at its lowest level in two decades.
“The reading on Monday was the lowest since Feb. 12, 1996 (yes I scrolled all the way back that far to find a lower one). And in case you are interested, that 1996 instance marked a price top which was not exceeded until 3 months afterward. Linear trends either upward or downward are very exhausting, requiring a lot of energy from either the bulls or the bears to keep everyone in formation and marching together. The market tends toward entropy, so excursions like this toward extreme organization cannot last for very long.”
Furthermore, with volatility levels at extremely low levels the probability of a further advance, without a pullback first, is extremely limited. My friend, Salil Mehta made a great comment on this recently noting that at current levels of volatility there is only about a 20% probability of further declines.
“At 11 [in the VIX] you are really close to the floor. chances are higher that you won’t go lower on VIX and will
2,165 on the S&P Futures (/ES), which fell to 2,155 – up $500 per contract
4,650 on the Nasdaq (/NQ), which fell to 4,630 – up $400 per contract
1,205 on the Russell (/TF), which fell to 1,198 – up $700 per contact
As you can see from the Dow chart above, we took a few losses poking short on the Dow during the week but it's all worth it when you catch a big winner on the way down. This morning, of course, we're moving back up on no volume – which is why we end up shorting in the first place.
Per our 5% Rule™, the week's fall from 18,550 to 18,400 is 150 points so a weak bounce is 30 points to 18,430 and a strong bounce is 60 points to 18,460 and 18,475 is the 50% line, which is where we'd poke short again with very tight stops and then, once the strong bounce line fails – we'd look for shorting opportunities at the strong bounce lines on all our indexes again.
Despite successfully playing for a bounce on oil and gasoline in yesterday's Live Member Chat Room, we are generally expecting a repeat of last Fall's fall and that is going to be bad news for the broad market as there is already a severe disconnect between Energy Sector stocks and the price of the energy they sell.
As BBG's Vincent Cingarella says, nothing short of a Herculean effort is likely to weaken the Yen over the long-term amid speculation about what the BOJ and government stimulus will look like. Over the short-term it is a different story, because as reported earlier, a report in mid afternoon NY time about the government pressuring the "independent" central bank to boost its stimulus sent USD/JPY higher but only back to levels seen early in the session, with the Yen...
Our benchmark S&P 500 continued in its range-bound sideways trend, posting a fractional gain of 0.16% that essentially split the different between the intraday high and low. The small gain extended the fractional up-down pattern of daily closes to eleven sessions. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 1.86% today and is now in bear territory, down 20.16% from its interim high 36 sessions ago on June 8th.
The yield on the 10-year remined unchanged at 1.52%.
Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.
Here is a daily chart of the index. We've highlighted the unusually narrow pattern over the past eleven sessions, both in closes and intraday trading ranges. To repeat again the pervading question: Wil...
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
NetSuite Inc (NYSE:N) is soaring this morning as Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ:ORCL) has made a bid to buy the company for $9.3 billion. This deal has been rumored for some time but obviously few expected such a large premium or did not think the bid was certaintly coming as the stock is up about 18 percent at the time of this writing which is a lot for a tech giant. Here is what the sell side is saying.
NetSuite – analysts react
Should the transaction take place, Oracle would pay about 9x NTM EV / revenue (based on consensus estimates for NetSuite), above the average multiple paid in our precedent SaaS Software acquisitions analysis of 6.8x . Additionally, Oracl...
The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Wednesday July 27, 2016:
Sequenom Being Acquired by Lab Corp for $2.40/Share in Cash
Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings (NYSE: LH) and Sequenom, Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM) announced Wednesday, that they have entered into a definitive agreement aunder which LabCorp would acquire all of the outstanding shares of Sequenom in a cash tender offer for $2.40 per share, for an equity value of $302 million.
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After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at email@example.com with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
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