Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category Weekly Trading Webinar Weekly Trading Webinar – 9-28-16

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here!

Major Topics:

00:01:01 Market Charts
00:02:04 S&P 500
00:05:39 Level Charts 9/27/2016
00:07:43 Checking on Market Charts: Energy, Bonds, Metals Etc.
00:09:18 Coffee
00:14:19 Gold
00:30:22 Checking on the Markets
00:31:54 UNG Charts: News and Trade Ideas
00:46:51 LNG Trade Ideas
00:49:44 Thoughts on CHRW
00:50:23 Fed and USD 
00:58:11 DBA
00:58:25 Grain Charts
00:59:57 Meat Charts
01:03:22 DDA  Trade Ideas
01:09:11 OPEC Deal
01:10:46 USO Trade Ideas
01:15:10 CL & ES Trade Ideas
01:28:06 Politics and Fed
01:29:31 Dollar Tree, Dollar Stores
01:32:31 Bank Rate Charges
01:38:10 Stocks and Markets
01:47:43 More Trade Ideas
01:52:26 Short-Term Portfolio
01:53:28 5% Portfolio
01:54:06 Long-Term Portfolio
01:54:52 Butterfly Portfolio


Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!

Thursday Thrust – OPEC Cuts Back and Yellen Doesn’t Raise

Well, we got through Wednesday.  

I love this chart which shows what the Fed has, in the past, SAID rates would be and what, in fact, they actually were for the past 3 years.  So it's not too surprising that, no matter what Yellen and Co. say about raising rates this year – no one is going to believe them.  If you bet against rates rising every single time (20) that the Fed said they would be raising rates in an upcoming meeting – you only would have been wrong once – last December.  

There are new traders who have been on the job for 7 years now and have never seen a Fed Fund Rate at 1%.  Money is essentially free if you want it – that's just a fact of life – why would you plan for anything else?  If you want to expand – borrow money, if you want to buy out a competitor – borrow money, if your stock price is too low – borrow money to buy it yourself.  

Image result for corporate debt 2016

Non-Financial Corporate Debt is up $3 TRILLION since 2008 – and that is just the S&P 500 – globally, 16Tn has been borrowed by Corporations at a rate of $2Tn per year, 3% of our Global GDP is borrowed!  It took 50 years for corporations to rack up their first $3Tn in debt but the next $3Tn came in just 8 years.  Yes, of course the first $3Tn in debt led to a complete meltdown of the Global markets as companies found themselves unable to service that debt but this time is different – because they borrowed twice as much…  

US-SP-Distress-ratio-2013-2015Less than 25% of that debt is considered "distressed" (yields that exceed Treasury yields by at least 10 percentage points), that's nothing to be alarmed about, is it?  Only 112 companies have been declared in default by S&P as of January of this year but, in 2008, it was 125 – so we still have room to improve on that front before panic sets in.  We have a long position on SJB ($25) in our Options Opportunity Portfolio, which makes money when junk bonds…
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What Lies Beneath


[Image from Pixabay]

What Lies Beneath


[Originally published (here) at The Guardian and cross-posted at George Monboit's website.]

It’s a simple choice: stop all fossil fuel prospecting, or break the Paris agreement on climate change.

Do they understand what they have signed? Plainly they do not. Governments like ours, now ratifying the Paris agreement on climate change, haven’t the faintest idea what it means. Either that, or they have no intention of honouring it.

For the first time, we can see the numbers on which the agreement depends, and their logic is inescapable. Governments can either meet their international commitments or allow the prospecting and development of new fossil fuel reserves. They cannot do both.

The Paris agreement, struck by 200 nations in December, pledged to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels”, and aspired to limit it to 1.5°. So what does this mean? Thanks to a report by Oil Change International, we can now answer this question with a degree of precision.

Using the industry’s own figures, it shows that burning the oil, gas and coal in the fields and mines that are already either in production or being developed is likely to take the global temperature rise beyond 2°. And even if all coal mining were to be shut down today, the oil and gas lined up so far would take it past 1.5°. The notion that we can open any new reserves, whether by fracking for gas, drilling for oil or digging for coal, without scuppering the Paris commitments is simply untenable.

This is not an extreme precautionary case. Quite the opposite in fact: the report uses the hazard assessment adopted by the United Nations. This means a 66% chance of preventing 2° of global warming and a 50% chance of preventing 1.5° – an assumption of risk that in any other field would be regarded as reckless. Even so, to prevent the odds from becoming any worse than this, a 2° target means that we can use only around 85% of the fossil fuel that’s currently good to go, while a 1.5° target…
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Howard Marks: I’m Not Seeing Bubble Prices In Most Assets

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Howard Marks

Image source: Bloomberg Video Screenshot

Howard Marks Bloomberg Most Influencial Interview – Podcast


Howard Marks: We’re Investing, but With Unusual Caution

Howard Marks, co-chairman at Oaktree Capital Group, discusses how clients are approaching the current market, investors continuing to act bullish, and fighting the idea of going to cash. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker on “Bloomberg Markets” and also appears at the Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit in New York. (Source: Bloomberg)

Howard Marks: I’m Not Seeing Bubble Prices in Most Assets

Howard Marks, co-chairman at Oaktree Capital Group, discusses his investment strategy and the state of financial markets. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker on “Bloomberg Markets” and also appears at the Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit in New York. (Source: Bloomberg)

Oaktree’s Howard Marks: We Are Not Market Timers

Howard Marks, co-chairman at Oaktree Capital Group, discusses the firm’s strategy for investing in bonds. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker on “Bloomberg Markets” and also appears at the Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit in New York. (Source: Bloomberg)

Oaktree’s Howard Marks on His Approach to Investing

Howard Marks, co-chairman at Oaktree Capital Group, discusses his investment strategy and the state of financial markets. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker on “Bloomberg Markets” and also appears at the Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit in New York. (Source: Bloomberg)


Window Dressing Wednesday – Quarterly Crash Ahead?

We're just waiting for the other shoe to drop.

Yellen testifies before Congress this morning (10) but while she's doing that, both Jay Powell and Jim Bullard will be speaking at a Conference of State Bank Supervisors and, in case that's not enough to whip the market up and down 100 points, we have Durable Goods at 8:30 and Oil Inventories at 10:30, a 7-Year Note Auction at 1pm and the Charlie Evans speaks at 1:30 followed by Loretta Mester at 4:30 and Esther George at 7:15.  I'm sure by then we'll have a very clear picture of what's going on {end sarcasm font}.  

Meanwhile, we were happy to hear yesterday that the Saxo Group has finally (9 months later) caught up to our Trade of the Year idea on Natural Gas (UNG), saying:

Natural gas is being supported by an eroding supply glut and a potential tightening in 2017. Our breakout model has given a buy signal in natural gas today on the continuation chart above $2.998/therm.

Isn't that nice?  I couldn't agree more, our target is $4 in Jan 2018 but, sadly, you missed the easy meal we made for you last December, when, after choosing /NG for our Members, I laid out our long case in the morning post on Dec 8th, while it was still below $2, saying:

Our UNG play is proprietary to our Options Opportunity players but I'm happy to help you play along with Carl and the way I would set up an LNG play is as follows:

  • Buy 10 2017 $30 calls for $14.60 ($14,600) 

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David Cay Johnston: The Making of Donald Trump

This video is very interesting; it's worth watching or listening to if you haven't already. 

David Cay Johnston: The Making of Donald Trump

Courtesy of Jesse's Cafe Americain 

“The narcissist devours people, consumes their output, and casts the empty, writhing shells aside.”

Sam Vaknin

I make it no secret that I find Hillary Clinton to be appallingly dishonest. The manner is which she secured the Democratic nomination is a signature of the Clinton style. The Clinton 'charitable foundation' is a beacon for everything that is wrong with the American economic and political system today.

But that does not mean that I am blind to what is being offered by The Donald.

I consider this upcoming national election to be the signal failure of the two party political system as it is today, choked by a self-referential elite, corrupted by a lust for power and big money.

Testy Tuesday – Trump Slumps, OPEC Dumps

What a crazy morning already!

As you can see, the S&P rocketed 20 points higher as Hillary put those Trump fears to rest during the debate last night and the markets had a huge relief rally but then, at the European open (3am), Deutsche Bank (DB) continued the 10% slide that was saved by the bell at yesterday's close and the EU markets followed down about 1% (so far).  No, in addition to DB having issues, Germany's 2nd largest bank, Commerzbank, announced it would lay off 18% of it's workforce (9,000 employees) in a massive restructuring.  Sure folks – everything is just fine – don't panic….

Already the market is lower than we were ahead of the Fed on Wednesday and it turns out I was a few day's early with my market prediction but, honestly, it wasn't hard to call as they've tried FREE MONEY for 8 years now and it hasn't worked yet and it won't work now because they are giving the money to the wrong people. 

As Hillary said last night, "trickle down economics has not worked in the past and it will not work in the future" THOSE are the failed policies of the past we can't afford to repeat.  If we want to turn the global economy around, we need to engage in some massive infrastructure projects that consumer materials and put people to work building things that last and have long-term beneficial effects on society like roads, bridges, aqueducts, electrical grids, forest reclamation, carbon reduction…  These are not whimsical things – these are all things we NEED and have been putting off.  

Rather than give another $6Tn to the Banksters to buy another 8 years of stagnation – why not give $6Tn to the people and see what they can do with it?  Instead, we are dooming the Bottom 90% to years of ZERO return on their meager savings, giving them no chance whatsoever of retiring in sound financial shape.  Even that isn't far enough and, as you can see on this chart, $7 TRILLION Dollars worth of debt (and that was Q1) is "paying" a NEGATIVE yield – we are punishing people for saving money –
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Invest or Die


Invest or Die

Courtesy of Wade W. Slome, Investing Caffeine

China Executes Wall Street Solution

Seventy-six million Baby Boomers are earning near 0% (or negative rates) and aren’t getting any younger in the process, which is forcing them and others to decide…invest or die. The risk of outliving your savings is becoming a larger reality these days. Demographics and economics are dictating that our aging population is living longer and earning less due to generationally low interest rates.

Richard Fisher, the former Dallas Federal Reserve president, understands these looming dynamics. Fisher has identified how low-interest rates are increasing investor discontent by pushing consumers to save more in order to meet retirement needs. The unintended consequence from low rates, he said, is “you’re going to have to save a hell of a lot more before you consume.”

Besides saving, the other option investors have is to lower your standard of living. For example, you could continually eat mac & cheese and sleep in a tent – that is indeed one way you could save money. However, your kids and/or desired lifestyle may make this way of life unpalatable for all. Rather, the proper approach to achieving a comfortable standard of living requires you to invest more efficiently and prudently.

What a lot of individuals fail to understand is that accepting too much risk can be just as dangerous as being too conservative, over the long run. Case in point, depositing your savings into a CD at current interest rates (near 0%) is the equivalent of burning your cash, as any income produced is overwhelmed by the deleterious effects of inflation. It would take more than a lifetime of CD interest income to equal equity returns earned over the last seven years. Since early 2009, stocks have more than tripled in value.

Given the prevailing economic and demographic trends, investors are slowly realizing the attractive income-producing nature of stocks relative to bonds. It has been a rare occurrence, but stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, continue to yield more than 10-Year Treasury Notes (2.0% vs. 1.6%, respectively) – see chart below. The picture for bonds looks even worse in many international markets, where $13 trillion in bonds are yielding…
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Monday Market Manipulation – 12 Fed Speakers This Week!

A divided Fed speaks!  

Last Wednesday, the Fed released the most divisive statement in many years with 3 Governors (Geoge, Mester and Rosengren), all of whom have expressed the opinion that the Fed needs to tighten now and stop dithering around.  Sadly, other than Bullard, the hawks are vastly outnumbered this week and the last word goes to Grandma Dove, Yellen, who rides in at 5pm on Thursday to help dress those windows for the last day of the quarter.  

If you think that makes it all seem like a gigantic, manipulated scam – you are catching on!  Notice the only hawk allowed to speak during trading hours is Bullard and he speaks right ahead of a 7-year note auction – a time when the Fed WANTS to scare investors back to the bond market.  There's a very strong correlation between days our Government needs to borrow money (bond auctions) and days when the market falls – making it look unattractive by comparison – even against 2% 10-year notes.  

Image result for debt to gdp by country 2015How else do you think a country can go over 100% of it's GDP into debt and still borrow money at rates that don't even keep up with inflation?  There has to be FEAR somewhere, but you sure wouldn't know it from record-high stock indexes, would you?  Keep in mind that being in debt 100% of your GDP is like you being 100% of your gross salary in debt, before taxes.  

If you make $100,000 and lose $35,000 to taxes and have a $2,000 mortgage ($24,000) and $1,500 in monthly home expenses (taxes, insurance, utilities, groceries), that's $18,000 and maybe you have 2 cars for $1,000 month ($12,000) which leaves you with $11,000 in discretionary income and THAT is what you have to pay back your $110,000 of debt.

Then there's interest on the debt.  If it's just 1%, like the US debt, then you are paying $1,100 in interest but that's still 10% of your disposable income.  What happens if rates go up – what will you be sacrificing?  Also, how's that saving for college and retirement going?  No wonder 80% of American families have little or no retirement savings – this is the example for
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Charting the Career Risk Trade into Year-End


Charting the Career Risk Trade into Year-End

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker

I got the idea for this chart from Arthur Hill’s latest commentary about the larger trend for the S&P 500 (higher) being more important than the smaller trend (early September sell-off).

I find that the longer one’s time horizon is, the less susceptible he or she will be to the counter-trend noise that encourages so many ill-advised tactical misadventures among the hair-trigger set – “this is it!”

No, it’s not. Calm down.

Anyway, at this time of year, it’s impossible not to start thinking about the end. How do we finish? For sure, the election could produce all manner of volatility, in addition to the dicketry going on overseas at all times. But the bigger trend is higher, for now.

And besides, chasing will be a big part of how we finish up. In my view, career risk is now at an all-time high. The outflows from professional managers have turned into a tsunami this year. Just last week, a net $7.7 billion was pulled out of US stock mutual funds. That’s in a single week! Redemptions from hedge funds have been historic all year too.

And in the meantime, the major US averages are all more than 5% higher year-to-date. While the Fed just told us they’re on hold until at least December.

Putting these pieces together, my best guess is that a performance chase is more likely than not once again this fall. Charlie Munger talks about incentives being they key to almost everything and I agree. Keeping one’s employment in a high-paid job is the mother or all incentives, after, let’s say, life and sex.

So, the career risk trade is on. And the good news is, it can be charted. Allow me to introduce you to the R.O.C. indicator, or rate of change. In my chart below, I look at the S&P 500 index in the top pane and the percentage gains over the trailing 52 weeks in the bottom pane.



We’re now looking at a double-digit one-year return in the index that everyone is compared with (whether they deem it appropriate or not). And it’s

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Phil's Favorites

Extreme Incompetence: Failure to Destroy Your Own Currency Even When You Try

Courtesy of Mish.

Japan’s prime minister Shinzo Abe is the most incompetent politician in the world as measured by his words vs. what is happening.

Abe has repeatedly promised promised to get inflation above 2%. That goal is amazingly easy. I provided examples twice. Yet here we are. Abenomics is a complete failure.

For the 20th time (at least)  in 10 years, Japan Suffers Setback in War on Deflation.

Japan remains in the grip of deflation, with consumer prices falling for a fifth consecutive month and price momentum slowing further in August.

Headline consumer prices were down 0.5 per cent on a year earlier, in line with analyst expectations, reflecting ...

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Zero Hedge

Will The ECB Buy Stocks?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Nick Jounis and Kim Liu via ABN AMRO,

  • Debate about the ECB’s stimulus options have continued to rage, with an equity purchase plan mentioned as a possibility
  • We think the ECB could legally buy ETFs that fit its requirements…
  • … but it would be controversial and we question the benefits
  • An ETF programme could total EUR 200bn, which would not be large compared to the overall QE programme
  • …and assuming a market-weighted allocation, it would benefit the core more ...

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Insider Scoop

Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Thursday September 29, 2016

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Thursday September 29, 2016:

Qualcomm Said to be in Talks to Acquire NXP Semiconductors for $30B+

The Rumor:
Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) is said in talks to acquire NXP Semiconductors NV (NASDAQ: NXPI), according to sources as reported by Dow Jones on Thursday. The sources said a deal, which could happen over the next two to three months, would likely be valued at over $30 billion, though NXP's market cap was already over $32 billion following the report.

NXP Semiconductor... more from Insider


IRS Walks Tightrope in Plan to Use Private Debt Collectors

By insidesources. Originally published at ValueWalk.

IRS Walks Tightrope in Plan to Use Private Debt Collectors

The Internal Revenue Service is looking to use private contractors to help collect tax debt but some warn there is a risk of increased scams and abuse.

The IRS announced its intent to use private debt collectors  Sept. 26 in response to a congressional order. The federal agency hopes to have the program operational by spring. The idea could help the agency to more efficiently collect tax debt, but it might also be opening the door to fraud and abuse.

“What makes it worse is the prevalence of these scam artists who call pretending to be IRS collectors,ȁ...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. Stocks Retreat as Deutsche Bank Woes Hit Financial Shares (Bloomberg)

U.S. stocks fell as banks retreated amid growing concern that Deutsche Bank AG’s woes will spread to the global financial sector. Health-care shares sank on speculation tighter regulations will crimp profits.

Deutsche Bank shares drop after report that some hedge funds have reduced exposure (CNBC)

Shares of Deutsche Bank fell more than 6.5 percent in New York trading Thursday after a Bloomberg report said a smal...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stocks and Crude Oil hung up by this key pattern!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below compares the price patterns of Crude Oil and the NYSE Index over the past 8-years. Crude and the NYSE don’t always correlate, over the past couple of years though, they have in a big way!


Since early 2015, the correlation between Crude Oil and the NYSE has been very high. They both hit highs together in 2015 at (1) and they both created double bottom lows together at (2).

Over the past 15-months, both appear to be ...

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Mapping The Market

The Industry That Was Crushed By The Obama Administration

By Jean-Luc

Good riddance – cleaned up a lot of frauds there:

The Industry That Was Crushed By The Obama Administration

In early 2009, the seven largest publicly traded college operators were worth a combined $51 billion. Today, they’ve been all but wiped out.

When Barack Obama took office, America’s seven largest publicly traded college operators were worth a combined $51 billion, with more than 815,000 students enrolled at campuses spread across the country. The schools were flooded with with people seeking shelter from the recession, returning to school to pick up new skills.

Almost eight years later, the industry has been decimated. The seven largest listed operators are worth just over $6 billion, and the most valuable co...

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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Saturday, 26 March 2016, 02:36:15 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: ZH: Its a BULLARD market, the FED jaw boning is keeping the market up!

Date Found: Sunday, 27 March 2016, 02:31:30 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: RTT: World trade near 2008/09 lows. SP500 near all time highs. PLACE YOUR BETS! Roll up! Roll up!

Date Found: Tuesday, 29 March 2016, 02:42:11 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cach...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 26th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Members' Corner

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit


Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

STJL - "Apparently macroeconomics is all bullshit – ROFL! Paging Naybob now… Famous Economist Paul Romer Says Macroeconomics Is All Bullshit."

The Nattering One muses... Macroeconomics as practiced by academics and those in charge is pure voodoo. Better to chant over goat blood, bird feathers and scattered entrails...

As for reality, overnight CNH HIBOR (...

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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.


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Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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PSW is more than just stock talk!


We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more! features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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