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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 12-13-17

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

Major Topics:

00:00:10 Checking on the Markets
00:01:42 FTR
00:05:36 Greencoin Charts
00:07:10 Gasoline
00:09:08 Petroleum Status Report Highlights
00:15:38 FTR Trade Ideas
00:26:23 Active Trader
00:31:03 FOMC Meeting
00:43:33 Checking on the Markets
00:45:51 WPM
00:49:06 DIS
00:58:40 Trade Ideas
00:59:55 CBI
01:02:17 Ford
01:08:27 SPXL
01:10:19 CLF
01:20:29 Checking on Portfolios
01:23:26 SPX
01:26:43 Compound Interest Calculator
01:39:25 SVU
01:42:50 More Trade Ideas

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!

 





$10,000 Thursday – Last Week’s Silver Play Beats BitCoin

Who says you can't make money in this market?

In yesterday's Live Trading Webinar we closed out the long Silver (/SI) trade we discussed in last week's Webinar, as well as last Thursday's PSW Report, where I said:

We actually picked up some Silver Futures (/SI) as they fell back to $15.85 and that's down $2.15 (12%) since September and our 5% Rule™ says that's a 10% drop with a 20% overshoot and, while that's no guarantee of a bottom (real support comes at $15.50) – it's worth a poke down here as we don't expect the Dollar to pop 94 very easily and Gold (/YG) is testing $1,250, which is good support on the yellow side.  

Yesterday's Fed Statement sent both gold and silver flying higher (and BitCoin lower) and we took the money and ran live, during the Webinar with a $10,000 overall gain on 8 contracts that gained 0.25 each at $50 per penny, per contract (the day's gain is coming of a dip).  It's not that we don't still like gold and silver – it's just that making $10,000 in a week is good money – so why risk a reversal?  If they don't pull back to give us another entry, then we'll find something else to trade (and we identified several in yesterday's Webinar).  

The reason we're cautious today is the Dollar (/DX) is down at 93 and that's too low, especially with our Fed in a tighening cycle and already the BOE failed to match the raise and, if the ECB holds off on raising rates too, the Dollar will pop so, this morning, in our Live Member Chat Room, I said to our Members:

If ECB stays easy then Dollar likely to pop so I do like /DX long over 93 with tight stops below.

I think /CL can be played long over $56.50 with tight stops below and /RB over $1.65 with tight stops below now.  


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Lessons From the General

 

Lessons From the General

Courtesy of 

Failure is a far better teacher than success because it’s much easier to duplicate failure than it is to replicate success. If we can study somebody’s shortcomings, we can take away tangible lessons and also realize that mistakes are just a part of the process. Some can be avoided, some we must learn for ourselves.

Ulysses S. Grant was an enormously successful General in the Civil War and he spent eight long years as President of a healing United States. But despite this heroic body of work, his financial life had plenty of room for improvement.

After a failed attempt at becoming a third-term President, the General settled into civilian life. He and his wife moved from St. Louis to New York City where, with the help of money raised for them, they bought a four-story brownstone for $98,000 ($2.1M in today’s dollars).

One of Grant’s sons, Buck, got into business with a young hotshot financier, Ferdinand Ward. Ward was referred to as the “Young Napoleon of finance” and some suggested he would one day become Secretary of the Treasury. The General had such confidence in Buck and his partner that he decided to kick in $50,000, most of the money he had, to help get the brokerage firm Grant & Ward up and running. This arrangement worked well for a few years. Grant & Ward paid him a monthly stipend and even kicked in some extra money from time to time.

Grant & Ward was did so well for its clients that there was a line of people waiting to throw money into the operation. In the epic biography Grant, Ron Chernow wrote, “One friend invested $50,000, disappeared for six months on a European vacation, then came home to a whopping $250,000 check. As others reaped 15 percent to 20 percent profits per month, a mania to invest with Grant & Ward overtook Wall Street.”

Today we recognize Grant & Ward as a classic ponzi scheme, but at the time, Grant was hopelessly naive. He said, “I think we have made more money during the past year than any other house in Wall Street.” He had no business…
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Why Worry Wednesday – The Fed Will Save Us Every Time

Bubbles, bubbles, everywhere.  

BitCoin has passed tulips in 1637 as the biggest bubble that ever existed.  The S&P bubble (see yesterday's post) is only up 300% in 8 years – hardly a blip on a chart where BitCoins (/XBT) is now up 6,500% in 3 years.  Amazingly, it was only two weeks ago when I said "We Will All Be Billionaires" if the markets keep growing at this pace yet the pace most certainly has continued, with our Money Talk portfolio (see yesterday) hitting +80% in yesterday's trading.  

There were no changes and no adjustments – just the same 4 positions going from +70% to +80% in two weeks while BitCoin went from $11,200 to $18,000 (+69%) and our GreenCoins went from 0.000220 to 0.000812 (+269%) before crashing back down to 0.000305 as we reminded people not to be greedy and take profits in yesterday's Live Member Chat Room.  Of course the whole thing is ridiculous, but it's a ridiculous thing we can play with – so why not?

We're still accepting GreenCoins (GRE) as payment for 2018 Annual Memberships during the month of December at 0.00044 so, if you can buy them for 0.000300, you're getting a 25% discount at the moment but I'd offer 0.000200 – as those lows are still filling if you are patient.  That gives you a 50% discount on Annual Memberships so, assuming you wanted an Annual Membership anyway, it's a free way to go through the process of playing the cryto market and, if you get lucky, GRE pops again and you can sell them for 4x, which pays for the Membership (2x) and leaves you 2x in your pocket as well!

Image result for bitcoin milestonesSee how easy it is to make money in America – we just make everyone rich on a weekly basis – what could possibly go wrong?  Two weeks ago, if you bought a BitCoin for $11,200 to exchange for GreenCoins (that's how small cryptos work, they trade in BitCoins) and you waited until they were back at 0.00022 on the 8th, your BitCoin was at $20,000 and you only needed 22.7M GreenCoins for a Premium…
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In Stunning Victory, Democrat Doug Jones Wins Alabama Senate Seat; Trump Responds: “A Win Is A Win…”

 

Source: NY Times

****

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Update: President Trump has reacted to Doug Jones' victory:

Update: US equity futures are sinking after Democrat Doug Jones wins Alabama Senate special election against Roy Moore, the state’s Republican former chief justice who was dogged throughout the campaign by sexual misconduct accusations, AP reports.

Jones has 49.6% to Moore’s 48.8% with 88% of vote counted, according to AP tally.

President Trump carried state in 2016 election by nearly 30 ppts over Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Jones wins seat vacated by Jeff Sessions, who became Trump’s attorney general.

Jones, 63, a former federal prosecutor, becomes first Democrat in U.S. Senate from deeply-Republican state of Alabama in over 20 years (last Ala. Democratic senator was Howell Heflin, who left office in 1997; the state’s senior senator Richard Shelby was a Democrat but switched parties to the Republicans in 1994)

Once Jones is sworn in, GOP’s Senate majority would narrow to the smallest possible 51-49… which explains why US equity futures are sliding…

Shortly after 8pm EST this evening, the voting results of one of the most controversial special elections in modern history, which pits Republican Roy Moore against Democrat Doug Jones for Jeff Sessions' vacant Senate seat, will start to flow in to news desks all around the country.

While this election would have been a complete blowout just a few months ago, allegations of sexual assault which surfaced against Moore in November and which reportedly occurred in the late '70s, have made it a complete toss up.  As we noted earlier this morning, even pollsters have no clue how to predict voter turnout tonight with Fox News predicting a 10-point win


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Our survey reveals that even Republicans want a fairer tax deal for America

 

Our survey reveals that even Republicans want a fairer tax deal for America

Courtesy of Sven Steinmo, University of Colorado and John W. D'Attoma, University of Exeter

The American Republican party is about to pass a massive tax bill that almost no one – including their own voters – really wants. While many people like the idea of paying lower taxes, remarkably few favour the kind of tax bill proposed.

We do not yet know the exact shape of the final bill, but three things are certain. Corporations and wealthy individuals will get a big tax cut. Middle-class Americans will get a small tax cut. And the government will borrow approximately US$1,500,000,000,000 (yes, that’s what 1.5 trillion looks like) to pay for those cuts.

Few Americans like any of these outcomes. According to one study earlier this year, 52% believe that taxes on large corporations should be increased, not cut. The same survey found that only 24% are in favour of cutting taxes on high income earners, while 48% believe people earning over US$250,000 should pay more tax, not less. Very few believe it is a good idea for the government to borrow even more money than it does already.

Good arguments can of course be made for public borrowing during economic downturns in order to stimulate spending. Similarly, some would argue that borrowing to spend on education or infrastructure can be positive investments in the future.

But neither of these arguments apply to this tax cut. This is simply a massive giveaway to the very people and institutions that need the money the least. According to the Federal Reserve Bank, annual post-tax corporate profits (US$1,738 billion) are higher now than they ever have been in US history. America’s richest individuals now have more of the nation’s wealth than any time since the 1920s.

Still, Congress is decorating a Christmas tree with tax goodies for companies and the rich, and leaving future generations to pay for them.

Today the federal government owes over US$20 trillion – more than the total value of goods and services produced in the US last year. That’s US$62,000 for every man, woman and child living in the country. Even…
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It’s Official: Bitcoin Surpasses “Tulip Mania”, Is Now The Biggest Bubble In World History

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

One month ago, a chart from Convoy Investments went viral for showing that among all of the world's most famous asset bubbles, bitcoin was only lagging the infamous 17th century "Tulip Mania."

One month later, the price of bitcoin has exploded even higher, and so it is time to refresh where in the global bubble race bitcoin now stands, and also whether it has finally surpassed "Tulips."

Conveniently, overnight the former Bridgewater analysts Howard Wang and Robert Wu who make up Convoy, released the answer in the form of an updated version of their asset bubble chart. In the new commentary, Wang writes that the Bitcoin prices have again more than doubled since the last update, and "its price has now gone up over 17 times this year, 64 times over the last three years and superseded that of the Dutch Tulip’s climb over the same time frame."

That's right: as of this moment it is official that bitcoin is now the biggest bubble in history, having surpassed the Tulip Mania of 1936-1937.

Some more observations from Wang:

I continue this topic and discuss a main driver of bubbles. When we see a dramatic rise in asset prices, there is often an internal struggle between the two types of investors within us. The first is the value investor, “is this investment getting too expensive?” The second is the momentum investor, “am I missing out on a trend?” I believe the balance of these two approaches, both within ourselves and across a market, ultimately determines the propensity for bubble-like behavior. When there is a new or rapidly evolving market, our conviction in the value investor can weaken and the momentum investor can take over. Other markets that structurally lack a basis for valuation are even more susceptible to momentum swings because the main indicator of future value is the market’s perception of recent value.

We will publish the balance of Wang's full note "What causes asset bubbles?" shortly, but for now we just wanted to experience a moment of true zen serenity, knowing that we now stand in proximity to an asset bubble the magnitude of which has never before been observed by humanity. Thanks central banks!





Too High Tuesday – S&P 500 Most Overbought in 22 Years

80% overbought.

We weren't even 80% overbought in 1999.  The high on the RSI Index was hit back in early 1997 and, bulls take note – we kept going higher for 2 more years after that – so this doesn't mean it's the end – it just means this is crazy.  This is about the point where Alan Greenspan called the market "irrationally exuberant" (Dec 5th, 1996) saying:

Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?

Image result for irrational exuberance chartThe Dow had just passed 5,000 at the time and, two years later, it was at 11,700 – up 134% AFTER the Fed Chairman said people were nuts for buying stocks.  I don't know for sure if we were right to go to CASH!!! last week but it's not a permanent decision – it's simply something we're doing into the holidays and likely to remain until we see the Q4 earnings and 2018 guidance in January.  THEN we will decide which stocks we want to ride for the next 100% of the market rally – if such a thing is coming.  

As you can see from the chart, the Dow move was nothing compared to the Nasdaq, which more than tripled after his call.  We just saw BitCoin more than double after JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon called it a scam and our GreenCoins (GRE) doubled yesterday and today they are up another 20% – that's a scam we can all enjoy!  

We're waiting on a Fed decision tomorrow and they are expected to tighten and this morning's November PPI numbers were hotter than expected, at 0.4% with even Core PPI up 0.3% – so those are good reasons to expect the Fed will be tapping on the brakes tomorrow but Greenspan raised rates all the way
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How the ‘Greatest Showman’ paved the way for Donald Trump

 

How the 'Greatest Showman' paved the way for Donald Trump

Courtesy of Michael GreenwaldTexas A&M University

File 20171208 27714 18s5l2n.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

‘I don’t care what they say about me,’ P.T. Barnum once said, ‘as long as they spell my name correctly.’ Everett Historical/Shutterstock.com

Historian James Cook, in his 2001 book “The Arts of Deception,” points to July 1835 as “the birth date of modern American popular culture.”

That month, a frustrated grocer named Phineus Taylor Barnum purchased Joice Heth, a purported 161-year-old slave who had been George Washington’s nanny.

Barnum furiously promoted her as “Absolutely the Greatest Natural and National Curiosity in the World.” It worked: Over 10,000 people saw her at New York City’s Niblo’s Garden during a two-week exhibition.

But while patrons gave testimonials assuring her authenticity, Barnum decided to muddy the waters: He wrote anonymous letters calling her “a deception cleverly made of India rubber, whalebone, and hidden springs.” The ploy challenged people to judge for themselves whether she was real or a hoax.

After Heth died in 1836, an autopsy was arranged to determine her age. A lesser huckster might have shrunk from the spotlight, fearing being exposed. Not Barnum: He charged customers 50 cents to observe the autopsy. (She ended up being around 80 years old.)

Now P.T. Barnum is the subject of a new musical biopic starring Hugh Jackman, “The Greatest Showman.” It’s a fitting moment to release a film featuring the country’s most famous impresario, entrepreneur and – some would say – scam artist.

Today, the country is gripped in a populist fervor, just as it was in Barnum’s time. Advertising – then in its infancy – now saturates all parts of our lives. And of course there’s the country’s new president, who’s one year into his first term. Barnum’s showmanship pulses through every fiber of Donald Trump’s political style.

Selling to the masses

In the 1830s, Jacksonian democracy was supplanting Jeffersonian elitism. The political movement challenging the existing social order in favor of the social, religious and aesthetic preferences of ordinary people, or, as composer Aaron Copeland later rhapsodized, “the Common Man.”

Acutely attuned…
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Monday Market Mania – Explosion Rocks New York City

I was going to talk about BitCoin (/XBT in the Futures now), but screw that.

Something just blew up at the subway near the Port Authority in Times Sqare, in NYC (7:45) - this is supposedly a picture of it happening but not verified (Twitter).  The bomb squad is there and reports are someone has been taken into custody who looked like they had an explosive vest on but it's very fresh – we'll find out more as we go.  My initial reaction is to short the S&P (/ES) at 2,652.5 as it's toppy anyway so I don't mind holding the short.  Trains have now been stopped and evacuated.

This is where Futures trading is a very useful tool in our toolbelt – we're able to quickly react to news and protect our portfolio or, in this case, since we already cashed out, make a little money off the tragedy (sorry but it's true, we're like vultures!).  I was just in Times Square yesterday with my kids and their friends and we took the subway home last night – right through the Times Square Station.  

It's amazing how slow the indexes are to react to news like this.  The markets are so used to shrugging off news that it fails to react when things like this happen.  Meanwhile, we're not too different from our Friday call to short the indexes.  As I said in our Friday Morning Report:

What could possibly go wrong?  As you know, we are in CASH!!! but I'll short the S&P Futures (/ES) today at 2,650 and the Dow at 24,300 (/YM) and the Nasdaq at 6,380 (/NQ) and the Russell at 1,530 (/TF) because I think we're going to sell-off a bit into the close.  We generally use a 2 out of 4 rule for shorting and short the laggards as 2 of the indexes cross under and then, if ANY of them cross back over, we get out.  So that limits our losses while giving us a nice possibility for gains.

We cashed out a few on Friday but kept the /ES short into the weekend and now we're at 24,371 on /YM, 2,655 on …
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Phil's Favorites

Fascism's return and Trump's war on youth

 

Fascism’s return and Trump’s war on youth

Courtesy of Henry GirouxMcMaster University

Donald Trump’s policies represent a particular attack on American youth and children, particularly those who are disadvantaged. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

Fascism is all too often relegated to the history books.

The word conjures up a period in which civilized societies treated democracy with contempt, engaged in acts of systemic violence, practised extermination and elimination, supported an “apocalyptic populism,” suppressed dissent, promoted a hyper-nationalism, displayed contempt for women, embraced militarism as an absolute ideal and in...



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Zero Hedge

Inflation indicator wonders why the Fed is raising rates

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Fed raised rates yesterday, is it necessary for them to do that? Humbly, the answer will come in time.

Below looks at the inflation indicator and how it is testing a key price level-

This inflation indicator (TIP/TLT) has been heading lower overall lower, inside of falling channel (1), for the past 5-years. It hit the top of the channel at the start of this year and has been heading south most of the time.

The infl...



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Biotech

Designer proteins that package genetic material could help deliver gene therapy

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Designer proteins that package genetic material could help deliver gene therapy

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

Delivering genetic material is a key challenge in gene therapy. Invitation image created by Kstudio, CC BY

If you’ve ever bought a new iPhone, you’ve experienced good packaging.

The way the lid slowly separates from the box. The pull...



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Chart School

Rallies Slow As Semiconductor Selling Eases

Courtesy of Declan

Markets experienced early gains but gave them back by the close of business. Given the mini-rally of the past five days, some of the indices are looking vulnerable to a new round of selling.

The S&P finished with a narrow inverted hammer on low volume but at new highs. A move back to the newly accelerated channel is looking favored.
 


The Nasdaq also finished with a narrow doji but wasn't able to make new highs.  It's already close to one channel but looks more likely to reach down to th...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For December 13, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Lightinthebox Holding Co Ltd-ADR (NYSE: LITB) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.01 per share on revenue of $78.49 million.
Companies Reporting After The Bell
  • ABM Industries, Inc. (NYSE: ABM) is expected to post quarterly earnings at $0.49 per share on revenue of $1.49 billion.
  • ...


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Digital Currencies

Not A Bubble?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Meet The Crypto Company - up almost 20,000% since inception in September...

To a market cap of over $12.6 billion...

Grant's Interest Rate Observer drew the world's attention to this 'company' yesterday.....



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ValueWalk

Tax Bill May Spark Exodus From High-Tax States

Courtesy of FinancialSense.com via ValueWalk.com

The following is a summary of our recent podcast, “Exodus – The Major Wealth Migration,” which can be listened to on our site here on on iTunes here.

It’s looking increasingl...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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