Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Will a $15/hr minimum wage unleash the robot rebellion?

Ed Rensi, Ex-McDonald's CEO, says that a "$35,000 robotic arm" is cheaper than hiring and training employees and that a higher minimum wage will just accelerate the process. According to Rensi,

It’s cheaper to buy a $35,000 (£24,000) robotic arm than it is to hire an employee who’s inefficient making $15 (£10.20) an hour bagging French fries.

It's nonsense and it’s very destructive and it’s inflationary and it’s going to cause a job loss across this country like you’re not going to believe.

[...]

It’s just common sense. It’s going to happen whether you like it or not. And the more you push this it’s going to happen faster. (Building robot McDonald's staff 'cheaper' than hiring workers on minimum wage)

I think the robot rebellion is already happening and now is a good time to figure out how to deal with it. 

1) Robots are cheaper than human labor and will probably continue to get cheaper (unlike humans).

2) Higher minimum wages will likely increase the incentive to replace human labor with robots, thus increasing the speed and the extent of the "robot rebellion." (Building robot McDonald's staff 'cheaper' than hiring workers on minimum wage and McDonald’s ex-CEO: $15/hr minimum wage will unleash the robot rebellion.)

3) Where it is cheaper for robots to take over jobs, they eventually will. For example, studies suggest that one third of jobs will be replaced by technology over the next two decades in Europe (source)

4) People who lose their jobs will stop paying taxes and start needing public assistance. The government may need to raise taxes and/or increase borrowing to increase funding for programs such as Medicaid/CHIP (Children’s Health Insurance Program or Children’s Medicaid), TANF (Temporary Assistance for Needy Families), EITC (Earned Income Tax Credit), and SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or Food Stamps). (The High Public Cost of Low Wages.)

5) McDonald's et. al. will save money on labor costs (human labor - robots = savings). Labor costs will be transferred to the public domain in the form of public assistance. (The High Public Cost of Low Wages.)

6) Inequality will increase. 


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Why Worry Wednesday – Greece is “Fixed” Again (part 6)

Farage holding a Brexit signWow, what a rally!

We expected a move back up but this is amazing.  Yesterday the markets took off as the latest Brexit poll showed the "remain" vote gaining ground as the non-stop doom and gloom propaganda from the EU Banksters has cowered the British public into submission.  Goldman Sach's (GS) BOE puppet, Mark Carney has been scaring the crap out of citizens with his recent speeches on the "dangers" of leaving the EU and FINALLY someone is questioning his loyalties:

"We know that Goldman Sachs has been a donor to the Remain campaign, you are a former managing director of Goldman Sachs.  Can I just give you the opportunity to refute any suggestion that Goldman Sachs may have put pressure on you to take a view?"

Coincidentally (well, not really if you pay attention to the way the World works) it was also Goldman Sachs who cooked Greece's books, which led to the crisis they are in today.  Brexit proponents have taken to summarizing the Goldman/Government tactics as "Project Fear" as they keep ramping up the doom and gloom predictions – much the same way Goldman Sachs used to keep ramping up their peak oil predictions to drive investors into that market when it was long past it's peak.  Manipulating votes is a piece of cake when you have practiced manipulating the markets for so long.  

Meanwhile, the vote is June 23rd, that's a whole month away and a lot can happen between now and then.  Germany's blitz worked against the UK in WWII for a while, but then British resolve allowed them to push back and take control.  What the Brexit crew need is their own Churchill, someone who can make a clear case for leaving without, like Farage, coming off like a racist.  It's really not about race – the EU is a sinking ship and the UK has the ability to get on the first lifeboat and save themselves but the Banksters want them to stay and help keep the ship afloat long enough for the Banksters to make sure they get on the lifeboats first. 

Far from…
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Where have all the cowboys gone?

 

Where have all the cowboys gone?

Courtesy of Joshua M. Brown

Flipping out over how awesome this new post at Michael Batnick’s blog is, which presents the career arc of history’s most important investors of all time. He takes their dates of birth, advances them 22 years for a typical career starting point, and then overlays them with the future cumulative performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to give you a sense of how much wind they had at their backs.

Looks like this (click to embiggen!):

best investors

You can get the full list of the names / birth dates here.

Mike points out that “there’s a football field of white space” after David Einhorn’s and Ken Griffin’s start in the 1990’s (they were both born in ’68). The question is, where are the new giants of the investing industry? There are only five people here who were born post-1960.

Possible answers:

  1. The new giants are too young and new in the industry to have attained the sort of provenance that the pre-1968 born investors have.
  2. Software and quant-driven funds that have been hugely successful do not have such publicly prominent people running them.
  3. The lost decade for the S&P 500 between 2000-2009 upended the normal progression of star-making.
  4. The money management field has gotten too crowded to create new superstars at the same rate.
  5. Alpha has disappeared and, with it, the potential to notably excel on a relative basis.
  6.  They went into technology and real estate instead.

I’m open to other answers to this puzzle. What do you think?

Source:

The Most Important Investors Of All Time (Irrelevant Investor) 





Testy Tuesday – S&P Futures Back over 2,050 – for Now

Go on, take the week off.  

Really, these markets are just stupid – there's no point trading them.  The volume on the S&P ETF (SPY) yesterday was 58M, one of the lowest levels of the year – including half days!  We opened at $205.51 and closed at $205.21 with a high of $205.84 and a low of $204.99 so a narrow range of 9 S&P points during the day and then, at 3am, we magically race back up 12 points – on no volume at all.  

It's a manipulated joke of a market and, while we enjoy playing the game, I hear from far too many people who take this nonsense seriously and are worried about what to do in the face of all this uncertainty.  The only trade we added in our Live Member Chat Room yesterday was a neutral butterfly spread on TGT, using our BE THE HOUSE stratgegy of selling premium over time against a long-term position.  That's how you make money in this market – take it from the people who think they know which way it will go!  

We're hoping for a nice rally so we can add back Nasdaq Ultra-Short (SQQQ) positions, now that Apple (AAPL) has bounced a bit.  Of course you are sick of me saying "I told you so" but I did tell you so, right in our Friday the 13th post, where I said:

Also, if you'd like a quick stock play – we picked up Apple (AAPL) at $90 yesterday and we leveraged it with the May (expire next Friday) $87.50 calls at $3.15, which closed yesterday at $3.25, which is net $90.75 and we think AAPL can at least bounce $1 or two and that should take those calls to $4, which is a very nice, quick gain into the weekend.  

With AAPL closing at $95.22 on Friday, those calls expired at $7.72 for a very nice $447 (137%) per contract win in 7 days.  That's the kind of trade idea you get just for having a PSW Report Membership ($99) as it was right in my morning post.  Of course, if you subscribed to our higher-level Memberships, you would
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Pulling the Band-Aid Off Slowly

 

Pulling the Band-Aid Off Slowly

Courtesy of Wade of Investing Caffeine

Bandaid

Federal Reserve monetary policy once again came to the forefront as the Fed released its April minutes this week. After living through years of a ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) coupled with QE (Quantitative Easing), many market participants and commentators are begging for a swifter move back to “normalization” (a Federal Funds Rate target set closer to historical averages). The economic wounds from the financial crisis may be healing, as seen in the improving employment data, but rather than ripping off the interest rate Band-Aid quickly and putting the pain behind investors, the dovish Fed Chair Janet Yellen has been signaling for months the Fed will increase rates at a “gradual” pace.

Despite the more hawkish tone regarding the possibility of an additional rate hike in June, Fed interest rate futures are currently still only factoring in about a 26% probability of a rate increase in June. As I have been saying for years (see “Fed Fatigue”), there has, and will likely continue to be, an overly, hyper-sensitive focus on monetary policy and language disseminated by members of the Feral Reserve Open Market Committee.

For example, in 1994, despite the Fed increasing target rates by +2.5% in a single year (from 3.0% to 5.5%), stock prices finished roughly flat for the year, and the market resumed its decade-long bull market run the subsequent year. Today, the higher bound of Fed Funds sits at a mere 0.5%, and the Fed has announced only one target increase this cycle (equaling a fraction of the ’94 pace). Even if investors are panicking over another potential quarter point in June or July, can you say, “overkill?”

While the Fed is approaching the lower-end of the range for its employment mandate (unemployment currently sitting at 5%), despite the recent bounce in oil prices, core inflation remains in check (see Calafia Pundit chart below). This long-term benign pricing trend gives the Fed a longer leash as it relates to the pace of future rate hikes.

Source: Calafia Beach Pundit

 

Source: Calafia Beach Pundit


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Messy Monday Markets – G7 Fails to Clean Up Currency Woes

F is for Failure

It's also for Finance Ministers and F is also the grade they got at this weekend's G7 meeting after failing to accomplish anything to calm the markets.  As you can see from the Nikkei chart, Japan's markets opened down a quick 2% before recovering half as it gyrated wildly into the close after testing 16,666, which is how the Banksters signal their minions that the fix is in and they have control.

For those of us not looking for Satanic messages from the trading floor, 16,500 is a strong (40% of the run) retrace from the bottom we called at 15,900 back on May 4th (good for a $5,000 per contract gain) to the top we called at 16,900 on May 11th (good for a $2,000 per contract gain) so you're welcome for those!  Remember – I can only tell you what the markets are going to do and how to make money trading them – the rest is up to you…

16,700 is the 20% (weak) retrace and, per our 5% Rule™, so upside resistance there is a bad sign and, if we bounce between there and 16,500, we're likely consolidating for a move down, which is likely if Japan fails to get permission to further devalue the Yen by the end of the G7 Bosses Meeting on Friday.  So we can look forward to another week of rumors and innuendo but the fun won't end there as OPEC then has their meeting on June 2nd.  Have I mentioned how much I like CASH!!! lately?

The lack of consensus over which policy levers to pull comes as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prepares his heavily indebted nation for what may be another dose of spending to help the struggling economy. Ideally, he’d like the blessing of his G7 peers before doing so, but expectations are low that national leaders can go one step further on any economic accord when they meet in Japan later this week.

"Globally coordinated stimulus and cooperative exchange-rate management look a distant prospect amid deep G-7 divisions," said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC


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James Grant Remembers The Forgotten Depression Of 1921: “The Crash That Cured Itself”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The Forgotten Depression tells of the slump of 1920-21: high unemployment, collapse in commodity prices, upsurge in bankruptcies and sharp break in stock prices. However, unlike the Great Depression, the 1920 affair was over in 18 months. What explains its brevity? James Grant, publisher of the prestigious Grant's Interest Rate Observer, tells the story of America's last governmentally-untreated depression; relatively brief and self-correcting which gave way to the Roaring Twenties…

As ValueWalk.com's Jacob Wolinksy explains, in 1920–21, Woodrow Wilson and Warren G. Harding met a deep economic slump by seeming to ignore it, implementing policies that most twenty-first century economists would call backward. Confronted with plunging prices, wages, and employment, the government balanced the budget and, through the Federal Reserve, raised interest rates. No “stimulus” was administered, and a powerful, job-filled recovery was under way by late in 1921.

In 1929, the economy once again slumped—and kept right on slumping as the Hoover administration adopted the very policies that Wilson and Harding had declined to put in place. Grant argues that well-intended federal intervention, notably the White House-led campaign to prop up industrial wages, helped to turn a bad recession into America’s worst depression. He offers the experience of the earlier depression for lessons for today and the future. This is a powerful response to the prevailing notion of how to fight recession. The enterprise system is more resilient than even its friends give it credit for being, Grant demonstrates.

As Grant so perfectly summarized previously, while we seem incapable of learning from what has worked in the past, future citizens will reflect on this so-called PhD standard (that runs the world), thus…

"My generation gave former tenured economics professors discretionary authority to fabricate money and to fix interest rates.

We put the cart of asset prices before the horse of enterprise.

We entertained the fantasy that high asset prices made for prosperity, rather than the other way around.

We actually worked to foster inflation, which we called 'price stability' (this was on the eve of the hyperinflation of 2017).

We seem to have miscalculated."





Beijing Astronomers Advise Residents Of “Rare Event” Tomorrow Morning

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

BEIJING – Predicting ideal conditions for the rare sight, Chinese astronomers announced to Beijing residents Monday that the sky would be visible for a brief two-minute window tomorrow morning.

According to a statement from the China National Space Administration read in part, advising interested citizens to plan on waking early and to consider using a small telescope for better views of the sky.

“From approximately 6:14 a.m. to 6:16 a.m., a small section of the Earth’s atmosphere should be perceptible to the naked eye when looking towards the southwest in Beijing.”

“For anyone who hasn’t seen it before or isn’t sure what to look for, the sky will appear as a small, bluish area that should stand out clearly from its surroundings. We’ll also be streaming the phenomenon live on the official CNSA website for residents with obstructed views in their neighborhood.”

The agency added that anyone who missed out on witnessing the occurrence tomorrow would have to wait a while, as the sky was not expected to be visible again until late 2024.

Source: The Onion

While tongue in cheek – perhaps – not everyone is laughing and some are even attempting to combat the pollution. So here, as we noted previously, courtesy of VJ, are the 13 most head-scratching proposals intended to do just that: fix China's smog. Good luck.

#13. Sky Watering Skyscrapers

Technically, it is called precipitation scavenging. In actuality all this means is turning skyscrapers into giant sprinklers in an effort to wash the skies of pollution. “If you can offer a half-hour watering your garden, then you can offer a half-hour watering your ambient atmosphere to keep air clean . . . ,” rings the sales pitch of this rather lo-fi geoengineering strategy.

Basically, precipitation scavenging works on the premise that rain clears smog, so artificial rain should do the same. To create “rain,” giant sprinklers will be attached to the roofs of tall buildings in China’s most polluted cities. During times when the air pollution rises due to a lack of rain the sprinklers will turn on, pulling…
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2,050 or Bust – Can the S&P 500 Avoid a 4th Weekly Decline?

SPX WEEKLY10 points.  

That's what we need on the S&P today to reverse what is turning into a very ugly downtrend on the weekly chart.  We've been discussing that line since February as the danger zone and, if you read us at all, you KNOW we short the S&P every time it gets to 2,100 and the last visit was mid-April, when I warned it wouldn't last in "Toppy Tuesday – What More Can They Do?"  At the time, the market had spiked up on enthusiasm over the "emergency meeting" between the White House and the Fed – nothing came of it and the markets promptly began to fall for the next 4 weeks.

In that article, I noted that we expected weak earnings, especially in the Financial Sector and, more importantly and more relevant to today's discussion, I warned that the real crisis was China's growing debt load, saying:

As money is sucked out of the pockets of the many and placed in the bank accounts of the few, China's economy (like ours) has stagnated as consumers can't afford to buy the goods they are producing at work and, as of last year, Chinese firms had only just enough operating profit to cover the interest expenses on their debt 2 times, down from 6 times in 2010.  That means a rise in rates OR a decline in profits can quickly lead to a huge economic crisis with massive defaults. 

As credit stresses mount, China is drafting rules to make it easier for lenders to convert bank loans into equity stakes of debtor companies. China may also approve, as soon as this month, a plan allowing banks to convert as much as 1Tn Yuan ($150Bn) of soured debt into equity – a very bad idea.

Last May (in case you forgot) is when China began going off the rails – triggered by a wave of defaults that I was warning you about all spring.  The problem was, I was too early with my warnings and a lot of people got complacent by May so this year I've waited before bringing it up again but the cycle will begin again soon and we need to keep our ears open for reports of Chinese loan defaults.  Our own market followed China down with a


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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar 05-18-16

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar 05-18-16


Major Topics:
 
00:03:25 Hourly Charts: DJIA, S&P 500
00:15:18 Weekly Chart: NG
00:20:20 WSM: Chart, PE, Balance Sheet, Trade Idea
00:24:49 DIS: Trade Idea, Stocks
00:36:10 June Rate Hike
00:37:25 Fed: about the Dollar. Strong Dollar. Debt
00:42:25 Checking on the Markets: DX, NKD
00:47:20 NG: Trade Ideas
00:58:20 FOMC Minutes
01:07:26 Checking on the Markets
01:09:35 Trade Ideas
01:13:21 Short-Term Portfolio
01:15:36 Checking on the Markets
01:22:40 More Trade Ideas

Don't miss next week's webinar in real-time. Get LIVE access to Phil's Weekly Webinars by joining us at Phil's Stock World — click here!





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Quantitative Easing And The Corruption Of Corporate America

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Danielle DiMartino Booth via DiMartinoBooth.com,

The art of brevity was not lost on Abraham Lincoln. It is that brevity in all its glory that shines through in what endures as one of the most beautiful testaments to the art of oration: The Gettysburg Address rounds out at 272 resounding words. The nation’s 16th President humbly predicted that the world wo...



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Phil's Favorites

France Running Out of Gasoline; Strikes Now Spread to Nuclear Plants

Courtesy of Mish.

France is running out of gasoline thanks to massive strikes at all the refineries.

The strike spread to air traffic control and many flights have been cancelled. Hundreds of thousands of people are stranded.

The strike is now about to spread to nuclear power plants.

I offer this quote of the day: “One cannot just turn off a nuclear plant, it is not like a thermal or hydro plant.”

The BBC reports French Labour Dispute: Strike Hits All Eight Oil Refineries.

An estimated 20% of petrol stations have either run dry or are low on supplies.

Clashes broke out at one refinery early on Tuesday when police broke up a blockade at Fos-sur-Mer in Marseille.

...

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ValueWalk

Donald Trump will be good for economy But bad for Wall Street: David Rosenberg

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Donald Trump will be good for economy, bad for Wall Street: David Rosenberg

Published on May 25, 2016

Live from the 2016 Strategic Investment Conference

Get the latest updates live from the sold-out 2016 Strategic Investment Conference with John Mauldin, Richard W. Fisher, David Rosenberg, James Grant, Niall Ferguson, George Friedman, Pippa Malmgren, Charles Gave, Neil Howe, and many more. Click go to following link to visit the conference’s live blog:

Some highlights

Hello, everyone who has joined us on the second day of SIC 2016. It’s going to be a long and exciting day. Today, we’ll hear speeches from George Friedman, Lacy Hunt, David Rosenberg, and other well-known financial and political experts. We’ll also do video interviews with each speaker, and all of th...



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Chart School

Vehicle Miles Traveled: Another Look at Our Evolving Behavior

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

The Department of Transportation's Federal Highway Commission has released the latest report on Traffic Volume Trends, data through March.

"Travel on all roads and streets changed by 5.0% (13.0 billion vehicle miles) for March 2016 as compared with March 2015." The less volatile 12-month moving average was up 0.41% month-over-month and 3.2% year-over-year. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) is up 0.33% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.

Here is a chart that illustrates this data series from its inception in 1971. It illustrates the "...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P 500- Bull Flag potentially in play, breakout about to happen?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Has the S&P 500 formed a “Bullish Flag Pattern” and making an attempt to breakout? Possible. If you are not familiar with the pattern, see more details HERE.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Unless one lives under a rock, you are well aware that that bulls nor bears have anyth...



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Market News

Breaking News And Best Of The Web - May 25

Courtesy of John Rubino.

Central banks likened to pornographers. Greece, believe or not, is still getting bailed out, and China is apparently next. US corporate share buybacks are starting to peter out. Japan lobbies for bigger deficits around the wold. Sprott’s Rick Rule how and why the gold bull market is for real, while precious metals continue correcting. Look for next week’s COT report to be a lot more positive. Pensions are back in the news, and the numbers are as usual very bad. Doug Noland on why the Fed probably can’t raise rates in June — or ever.

Best Of The Web

Gold: Intelligentsia – you’re fired! – 321Gold

...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 23rd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

The Biggest Bitcoin Arbitrage Ever?

Courtesy of Chris at CapitalistExploits

Do you remember when you were growing up and all your friends were allowed Atari game consoles but you weren’t?

Well, I do and the things seemed as foreign to me as Venus. Mostly because the little time I managed to spend on the gaming consoles when my friends weren’t hogging them I found it all a bit silly. I never “got” computer games, and to this day still have poor comprehension of things like Angry Birds.

I suspect that many people around the world view Bitcoin in the same way as I view Angry Birds: with mild amusement and a general lack of understanding as to what the hell all the fuss is about.

I was thinking of this since a buddy of mine recently started ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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