Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Monday Market Movement – Nervous Trading in a New World

Image result for there's supposed to be an earth shattering kaboomNo kaboom.  

Trump has been President all weekend and the World is still here so I suppose we're going to have to formulate a trading strategy going forward.  We reviewed our 4 Member Porfolios over the weekend and we are 75-90% in CASH!!! and, if the World continues not to end this week – we will be looking for more opportunities to deploy some of it.

Of course we're already dealing with the first crisis of the Trump Administration – How big was the crowd at the inauguration?  You might think, "who cares" if you are a rational person but crowd size experts told the New York Times they estimated Trump's audience at fewer than 200,000 people, and widely distributed side-by-side photographs showed the stark contrast between the comparatively sparse crowd for Trump's inauguration and the record-setting crowd for Obama's first.

The President of the United States of America said the press was lying and under-reporting the crowd and White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer gathered the press to deliver a five-minute statement Saturday in which he issued multiple falsehoods, declaring erroneously the number of people who used the D.C. metro on Friday, that there was a change in security measures this year and that "this was the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration, period, both in person and around the globe."  "These attempts to lessen the enthusiasm of the inauguration are shameful and wrong," Spicer said Saturday.

Then things get really freaky as Trump's counselor, Kellyanne Conway, went on Meet the press to confront the liberal media head on and ended up fighting with Chuck Todd and threatening NBC, saying "I think we're going to have to rethink our relationship here."   You have to see it to believe it:

Nope, I still don't believe it!  As noted by Todd, when the President's Press Secretary blatantly lies in his first Press Conference it undermines the credibility of the entire administration.  Even more frightening is Conway's statement that: "You're saying it's a falsehood and Sean Spicer, our press secretary, gave alternative facts to
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Philstockworld January Portfolio Review

Image result for new year 2017 stock marketWe're off to a great start!  

Only 20 days into the new year and, since our last review, all 4 of our Member Portfolios have added substantial gains as our bets on a flatlining market are paying off:

  • Our Options Opportunity Portfolio (OOP) is up $9,352 (9.3%), at $246,577, which is up 148.6% since its 8/8/15 inception – our newest portfolio.
  • Our Butterfly Portfolio is up $7,816 (7.8%) at $331,408, which is up 231.4% since its 7/29/13 inception.  
  • Our Short-Terrm Portfolio (STP) is up $9,222 (9%) at $484,298 which is up 375.1% since its 11/26/13 inception.
  • Our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) has jumped 29,649 (6%) to $1,209,372, which is up 141.9% since its 11/26/13 inception.  

In addition to our 4 virtual tracking portfolios, we also have our Top Trade Ideas, which do not go into a portfolio but I will do a review of those next week.  For the first time ever, our last two Top Trade Ideas were hedges – that should tell you something about my mindset for the market going forward.  

Image result for cash jokerAll of our Member portfolios are 75-90% CASH!!! at the moment and using 1/4-1/2 margin – leaving us plenty of room to adjust if the market does turn sour – something I feel is very likely to happen in the next two months and yes, I know I've said this before but, really, how much over our 2,100 top call on the S&P are we?  It's at 2,262, so we're 162 points over what I called a value top and that's 7.7% but, in fairness, the Dollar is down 3% and that explains most of it.

The rest of the pop comes from runaway expections from the Trump Presidency and yes, he will lower the Corporate Tax Rate but Corporations only pay 12% on avergage now – how low can they really go?  More pop came from the Banking Sector, where deregulation expections have added 20% to that index but we saw what deregulated Banks did to themselves under Bush – why is that a good thing?  And, of course, rising oil prices have boosted the Energy
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What I Learned in Washington DC

 

What I Learned in Washington DC

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

I have been in Washington DC for the last three days. The ostensible reason was to participate in a board meeting of a public company, Ashford Inc. (AINC). We manage hotel REITs that own three hotels here in DC, and the group decided to move our board meeting up a few weeks and hold it in DC during the inauguration. That gave me the opportunity to set up a few meetings to try to gain some insight into what the first 100 days, the first six months, and the first year of the Trump administration might look like.

This is going to be a short letter summarizing my impressions from the last few days. I think it might be easiest to present them in the form of a list.

  1. If you listen to the media you might have the impression that the Trump transition team is in complete disarray. Talking with leaders of the transition team certainly didn’t leave me with that impression. They have broken the transition process down into over 30 departments and have created a “landing document” for each department. The analogy they are using is that this process is like planning an invasion, and they are going to hand the landing document off to the “beachhead teams” who will then execute the plans.

I was briefly allowed to look at (without actually being able to read) the plan for one cabinet-level department. It appeared to be about 100 pages plus of serious detail as to exactly what executive orders would need to be removed and added, what personnel would have to be replaced (both appointees and regular staff), what policies would need to be changed, and so forth.

I was told that this level of planning was being done for every department. My impression is that there are a lot of people from various think tanks and others with experience in the presidential transition process who are involved in directing the plan for each department. That level of detailed planning doesn’t happen in less than two months. My guess is that some of that thinking has been going on for years, and now…
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Trump’s inaugural speech: Is it morning or mourning in America?

 

Trump's inaugural speech: Is it morning or mourning in America?

Courtesy of Christian Lundberg, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill and Joshua Gunn, University of Texas at Austin

President Donald Trump’s inaugural speech – a brief address, which, at 1,433 words, was the shortest since President Carter’s – combined his trademark combative populism with shades of Ronald Reagan.

Though sprinkled with calls for unity, it also relied upon creating a sharp divide between his self-declared “movement” and forces aligned with the “Washington establishment.” He also implicitly distinguished between those whom he dubbed “patriots” and everyone else.

In a sense, the speech mimicked today’s political climate. For his base, it will be received as a call for all Americans to unify around his agenda. For his opponents, it will be seen as not only negative, but divisive. Whether one believes that his speech echoed the high ideals of the Gipper or the acrimony of the campaign trail may depend on whether you are a person who believes it is once again morning in America or a person who is mourning America.

In the end, if it was a call for unity, it was a divisive one.

Still mired in campaign rhetoric

According to Karlyn Kohrs Campbell and Kathleen Hall Jamieson, two leading experts of presidential rhetoric, an inaugural address functions to: (1) bring together the country; (2) rehearse common values; (3) set forth guiding presidential principles; and (4) demonstrate the presidential persona can be competently performed. Typically, the primary purpose of unification is achieved by rehearsing common values. On that foundation the presidential principles and persona are advanced.

For this reason, inaugural speeches usually don’t name domestic enemies. Trump’s inaugural was remarkable because of his stark use of direct scapegoating.

For example, although Ronald Reagan decried the “Washington establishment” in his 1981 address, he was deliberately vague:

“From time to time we’ve been tempted to believe that society has become too complex to be managed by self-rule, that government by an elite group is superior to government for, by, and of the people.”

Trump, however, was very direct:

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Lest We Forget

 

Lest We Forget

Courtesy of 

This post first appeared on BillMoyers.com.

In this web exclusive, Bill Moyers and four historians dissect the big lie Trump rode to power: the Birther lie. Nell Painter, historian and Edwards Professor of American History, Emerita, at Princeton University; Khalil Gibran Muhammad, professor of history, race and public policy at Harvard Kennedy School; Christopher Lebron, assistant professor of African-American studies and philosophy at Yale University; and Philip Klinkner, James S. Sherman Professor of Government, Hamilton College discuss the fertile ground on which the birther lie was sown: our nation's history of white supremacy.

Credits: Gail Ablow, Producer; Sikay Tang, Editor

TRANSCRIPT

BILL MOYERS: I’m Bill Moyers. The most important thing to remember about Donald Trump is that he was the same man at 12:01 p.m. Friday after he took the oath of office as he was at 11:59 a.m. before his swearing in. His character: the same. His temperament and his values: the same.

What’s different is that in those two minutes Donald Trump was handed the most awesome power imaginable. He now controls the world’s most powerful nuclear arsenal. The Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines and Coast Guard are at his command. The FBI, the CIA, the NSA, the IRS, Homeland Security, the State Department, Justice Department, Treasury Department, the Department of Education, the Interior Department — all of the agencies of the executive branch — report, ultimately, to this one man. The world awaits his pronouncements, the markets and the media live by and for his tweets. So here’s the second most important thing to remember about Donald Trump: He rode to power on the wings of a dark lie — one of the most malignant and ugly lies in American history. We must never forget it.

(MONTAGE)

LOU DOBBS (CNN 7/21/09): Up next, the issue that won’t go away: the matter of President Obama and that birth certificate.

DONALD TRUMP (The View, ABC 3/23/11): There’s something on that birth certificate that he doesn’t like.

TRUMP (The O’Reilly Factor, FOX News 3/30/11): He doesn't have a birth certificate.…
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Eastern Promises

 

Eastern Promises

Courtesy of 

This is how the game is played:

Either before or after the tweet is sent about your company, you make a trip to Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue or to Mar-a-Lago (which will be the new combination White House / Camp David, by the way) and you parade ostentatiously before the bank of TV cameras. “Look at me! I’m down with the President’s agenda!”

Then a half hour later, you come down the golden elevator with the man himself, who holds an impromptu Q&A with you, as part of his end of the deal. Announcements of new jobs are made. New factories. New initiatives that will be undertaken, ASAP. Then he goes back up in his golden elevator for the next meeting and you get another 10 minutes of face time with the news crews. You grin optimistically, knowing that you and your company are off the Twitter shit list for awhile.

Mission accomplished.

It’s an old playbook, imported from the east. More on that in a moment.

One of the obvious things going on here, at least to the business world, is that much of this is just another reality show. There’s truth to these corporate pronouncements, but there’s plenty of artifice as well. It’s a pageant of sorts, designed for the consumption of the masses. To which I’d say, so what? If it gets the job done, let the man put on his show. Just don’t get overly excited about any sort of national transformation.

Here’s NBC News with some background on the fact that many of these corporate hiring and expansion plans were already in the works. It’s just that they don’t usually necessitate a press release and a meeting with the White House. The fifteen million jobs created by American businesses under President Obama were mostly not tweeted by @POTUS. Maybe they should have been.

Companies eager to avoid becoming the target of the next attack by President-elect Donald Trump are preemptively — or retroactively — announcing U.S. job creation plans.

But peel back a layer and the promises come with some caveats. A company’s plan to increase capital


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The Trump Error Begins!

Image result for trumpocalypseDid the Romans know it was over?  

In 476 AD, the Germanic leader Odoacer, deposed Emperor Romulus Augustulus and that was the true and official end of the Roman Empire but Rome was first sacked in 410 by Visigoth King Alaric and had limped into it's final decades.  But you have to go further back than that as the Goths killed Emporer Valens in 378 but he was only the "eastern Emperor" of Rome as the country had already split along party lines due to political in-fighting which caused Emporer Diocletian to divide the Empire into 2 halves.  Those two halves could never agree on Government priorities and the Empire essentially dissolved into chaos

Unlike today, January 20th, 2017, there was no particular day to point to and say: "Yes, that's when the Romans elected a guy who said he will change everything and he did – and then the Empire was destroyed."  We will have the luxury of knowing exactly when we made the decision that pushed America over the edge – or maybe on to greatness (again) – who's to say?

On the bright side, as noted by Samantha Bee, Trump doesn't actually do what he says.  Or, then again, maybe he does because, as he said in Michigan: "When you cast that ballot, just picture a Wall Street boardroom filled with the special interests who are bleeding your country and your city and everyplace else…"  He is certainly delivering that already, with what the Washington Post calls "the worst Cabinet in American History" – a complete and utter sell-out to Wall Street and Special Interests.  

As just one colorful example, let’s look at this report in today’s New York Times about Rick Perry, who will be Secretary of Energy. The change from the leadership under Barack Obama is already striking: the current secretary, Ernest Moniz, is a respected nuclear physicist who also came to the job with significant experience managing scientific institutions, and he’ll be succeeded by someone who advocated eliminating the department, although in his defense Perry couldn’t quite remember that it was the one he wanted to get rid


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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 01-18-17

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

Major Topics:

00:01:46 Checking on the Markets
00:03:32 Trade Ideas and Tips
00:06:34 Accuweather
00:08:59 Natural Gas Charts
00:13:08 PG in the Butterfly Portfolio
00:15:15 PG Charts
00:17:45 PG Trade Ideas
00:26:50 September Portfolio Review
00:29:11 PSO
00:34:05 PSO Trade Ideas
00:36:04 RRD Chart
00:41:06 PSO Charts
00:41:34 NFLX
00:49:30 Butterfly Portfolio
00:50:40 TGT
00:54:20 Target Earnings
00:56:36 TGT Charts
00:58:36 Checking on the Markets
00:59:22 Beige Book
01:16:05 Active Trader
01:17:23 5% Portfolio
01:19:30 SPWR
01:20:38 AAPL
01:31:28 XLF
01:33:20 5% Portfolio
01:35:34 Butterfly Portfolio
01:38:20 Long Term Portfolio
01:42:43 Checking on the Markets
01:51:40 More Trade Ideas

 

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!

 





Thursday Thoughts: Waiting on Yellen and Trump

Has the Dollar bottomed?

After a 2.5% pullback to start 2017 the Dollar has popped 1% in the past two days after Janet Yellen made a 3pm speech saying U.S. economy is “close” to the Central Bank’s objectives of full employment and stable prices and she’s confident it will continue to improve.

It is fair to say the economy is near maximum employment and inflation is moving toward our goal,” Yellen told the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco Wednesday. While “it makes sense to gradually reduce the level of monetary policy support,” the timing of the next interest-rate increase “will depend on how the economy actually evolves over coming months,” she said.

So the better the economy does, the faster the Fed will raise rates (duh!) and Yellen indicated a target for a 3% Fed funds rate by 2019, which would be 9 raises from here – a faster pace of increases than most economorons were expecting.  Inflation is, of course, exactly what we're expecting in 2017 and 2018 and I discussed that strategy on Money Talk last night.

The last time unemployment was this low was back in 2006 and 2007 and that marked the end, not the beginning of the market rally.  Full employment leads to higher wages and higher wages lead to inflation and that is so obvious I feel silly for saying it but, apparently, it's a surprise to "leading economists" who are consistently shocked by things they should have learned in Econ 101.

That's why I'm growing a beard – I've decided to become a leading economist so I need to start looking the part!  As you can see from this chart, 4.9% unemployment is low but we've been down to 4% so we can go lower and our new President promises to create those jobs (1.6M jobs = 1%), which is no different than promising to create inflation and so, we have our "Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017," including the Trade of the Year we discussed on TV last night.

As much as it wants to, the market simply cannot have it all.  If we are going to lower unemployment than we are going to drive labor costs higher (until we're all replaced by machines,…
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How to beat a high frequency trader

 

How to beat a high frequency trader

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker

The madness around trading the tweeting of Trump has jumped the tracks and landed itself among ordinary investors across the country. The new game seems to be trying to anticipate which industry he’ll target next and somehow make money from the volatility in the related stocks. Or, perhaps worse, to trade the reaction after a tweet hits home. The naïveté here is adorable.

In the first place, there are algos specifically set up to pick up on these tweets and errant remarks in seconds, with trades pre-sized and planned, ready to execute immediately. Is this the game you want to play from the Fidelity app while you’re at a stop light?

Realistically, you may nail a trade or two from this kind of thing, but I wouldn’t be planning to retire from it. It’ll go away. Remember the Carl Icahn tweets about Apple? That was fun for a few months.

I gave my two cents to the Los Angeles Times on the topic. I have a few quotes in here…

When Trump tweets, Wall Street trades — instantly (Los Angeles Times) 

A better game to play might be to figure out how much you’ll need to spend over the coming decades, work out the math on what sorts of returns you’ll need, include things like vacations, taxes, charitable giving, catastrophic health care (knock on wood), any inheritance you’d like to leave behind, any insurance strategies you can employ to lessen the tax burden on your heirs, etc, etc. Then work out what sort of portfolio will give you the clearest, most optimized and least stressful route to arriving at these financial destinations.

This is a game you can actually win. And if you need help with the answers to these questions, tell us. We all only have so much time on this earth, and nothing is a given. How much of it do we want to spend speculating on the 3am tweets of a consummate showman?

(Picture of Ichan with an apple: source)
 




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Soaring Lease Returns Set To Wreak Havoc Used Car Pricing and Auto Industry Profits

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

For months we've warned that declining used car prices could spell disaster for subprime auto securitizations (see "Slumping Used Car Prices Spell Disaster For Subprime Auto Securitizations").  While it's always difficult to predict the exact timing of when bubbles will burst, a combination of record-high lease returns in 2017 and 2018, combined with rising interest rates could imply that the auto bubble is on the precipice.

As ...



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ValueWalk

Can The Caucasus Grab Donald Trump's Attention?

By EurasiaNet. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Pink protest hats were not the only piece of clothing to mark US President Donald Trump’s January 20 inauguration. He did, in fact, receive a chokha, a traditional wool coat from the Caucasus for men, usually worn with a dagger.

Little suggests that Trump will soon cut a dash in the bandoliered, cinched-at-the-waist costume from a Tbilisi apparel shop. But its offering symbolizes the regional hope that he will not overlook the Caucasus.

Even before Trump’s calls for “America First,” local analysts believe that American foreign policy had bec...



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Chart School

Russell 2000 Turns Net Bearish Technically

Courtesy of Declan.

It was another day of modest change with little real turn in bullish/bearish outlook.  The Russell 2000 was the only one index to mark a technical change with a net bearish switch in technicals (MACD, Slow Stochastics, On-Balance-Volume).


There wasn't much to add for other indices. The S&P finished with a narrow doji on its 20-day MA. Technicals were little changed.

...

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Phil's Favorites

He Is Risen... But For How Long?

 

He Is Risen… But For How Long?

Courtesy of James Howard Kunstler

If the first forty-eight hours are any measure of the alleged Trumptopia-to-come, the leading man in this national melodrama appears to be meshuga. A more charitable view might be that his behavior does not comport with the job description: president. If he keeps it up, I stick to my call that we will see him removed by extraordinary action within a few months. It might be a lawful continuity-of-government procedure according to the 25th Amendment — various high officials declaring him “incapacited” — or it might be a straight-up old school coup d’état (“You’re fired&rdqu...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

18 people have signed up, but it's not too late to join in!

Learn option strategies and how to be the house and not the gambler. That's especially apropos since we'll be in Vegas....

Join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017            

Beginning Time:  9:30 to 10:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesars Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesars has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We n...



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Digital Currencies

As China Slaps Fees On Bitcoin Trades, Japan Monthly Volumes Soar by 8,900%

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

There is one reason why bitcoin quickly became the darling of HFT and various high speed algo traders operating out of China and the rest of the world: domestic transactions were "frictionless", as there were no fees on buys or sells. Until last night, that is, because as China's three largest bitcoin exchanges, BTCC, Huobi and OkCoin, all said in separate statements on their websites late on Sunday, starting Tuesday they will charge traders a flat fee of 0.2% per transaction. This is only the latest fallout from the recent crackdown on Chinese bitcoin exchanges whose activities have drawn increased scrutiny from the centra...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

OPEC and Friends Agree on Way to Monitor Oil Cut to End Glut (Bloomberg)

OPEC and other oil producers agreed on a way to monitor their compliance with last month’s historic supply deal, putting global markets on track to re-balance after more than two years of oversupply.

Wall Street stocks set to slip as Trump keeps investors on the back foot (Market Watch)

U.S. stock futures tilted south on Monday as global markets grappled with uncertainty over the policies of U.S. President Dona...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 23rd, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Post Christmas- Gold Miners & Metals the place to be!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Christmas is now nearly one month ago, how time flies. Ole Santa has been taking a rest and so far over the past month, the S&P 500 has done the same. Not so much for a few other high flying assets!

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Since the first day of trading after the Christmas break, the broad market has been pretty quiet, up .23%. Bonds (TLT) and the Euro (FXE) have made a little bit more than the broad markets.

The Metals Sector has done pretty well since Christmas, as Gold ...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings: Last Call for Yahoo? Johnson & Johnson, Alibaba Also Release This Week

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Earnings season kicks into high gear this week with a number of big names reporting. Among the Monday releases, YYahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) will report what may be its last quarterly earnings numbers, as its pending acquisition by Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ), announced in July 2016, moves toward completion.  

On Tuesday before the opening bell, pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and Chinese e-commerce heavyweight ...



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Members' Corner

How To Poop At Work?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Once again it's "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo". 

In our last episode, How to Poop On A Date? we were graced with a delicate shituation: what ever to do when your finally back at her place, snuggling in for a little "brown chicken brown cow" and you get hit with "Love Potion #2".

This week in How to Poop At Work? ,what to do when your at a big fancy pants meeting, when out of nowhere, you need to download a brown load?



...

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Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN and  WILL CONNORS

Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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