Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Toppy Tuesday – S&P 2,440 Keeps Failing into Earnings

Here we are again, again.

We've been watching that 2,440 line on the S&P all month long for signs of an upside breakout and, while the Nasdaq is still making record highs, the much more reliable S&P 500 seems reluctant to go higher.  Earnings season is just around the corner but a week delayed because of the Holiday, with Big Banks (C, JPM, WFC) reporting on the 14th and then comes the flood.

It's hard to imagine how the S&P can go higher without solid evidence it deserves to have a p/e greater than 25 (now 24.6) to cross that 2,500 mark so all eyes will be on the 500 and how much they are actually dropping to the bottom line this quarter.

Unfortuately, that may be a bit of a snag as the Atlanta Fed has once again lowered their GDPNow Forecast to 2.9%, down 30% from the original 4.2% estimate that kicked off the 2nd quarter.  Yesterday's Durable Goods Report for May was a horrific -1.1% and April's (the first month of Q2) report was revised down from terrible (-0.7%) to horrific (-0.9%) as well.  

GDPNowThat caused the forecasts for contributions of real Nonresidential Equipment and Inventory Investment to second-quarter real GDP growth to decline from 0.15% and 0.76% to 0.12% and 0.69%, respectively, which knocked the overall forecast futher down the line.

Keep in mind Trump's budget is based on 4% GDP Growth and failing to achieve that adds Trillions of Dollars to our deficit yet they will ignore this FACT and cut the taxes anyway and your children and your grandchildren will suffer for it for the rest of their lives – enjoy.

Of course, those lives are much more likely to be brief – especially if they are in the bottom 90% as the newest version of the TrumpDon'tCare lack of Health Bill cuts 22M people off from insurance and will skyrocket costs for people who remain covered – including seniors as the famous "donut hole" in coverage is back with a vengance under the new plan.  4,000 people PER MONTH will DIE due to lack of coverage - that's what your Senators are voting for – a 9/11 per month for America's…
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Global series: Globalisation Under Pressure

 

Global series: Globalisation Under Pressure

Courtesy of Catesby HolmesThe ConversationClea ChakravertyThe ConversationFabrice RousselotThe Conversation; Reema Rattan, The Conversation, and Stephan SchmidtThe Conversation

File 20170519 12263 40oiu9

atlas. Chris Murtagh/flickr, CC BY-SA

The rise in nationalism. Brexit and Trump. Reactionary far-right parties wooing millions of voters around the world. The facts on the ground are clear: globalisation – and the international economic and political system that has underpinned it for the past half-century – is fracturing.

Globalisation Under Pressure is a new series from The Conversation Global that both analyses the old international order and surfaces local stories of finance, migration, jobs, education and culture that show the far-reaching impacts of the changes underway today.

Is China the potential driver of a new wave of globalisation?

While China has so far secured support from a number of governments for its Belt and Road Initiative, the recent forum in Beijing also highlighted some obstacles to its advancement.

Globalisation isn’t dead, it’s just shed its slick cover story

Today’s ugly politics are not a backlash against global capitalism, they’re an open embrace of the racism and greed that has always underpinned so-called global governance.

Expert conversation: ‘The right to luxury could constitute a legitimate claim’

Luxury exists in most human societies throughout the world but in different forms. Gratisography/Pexels, CC BY-SA, CC BY-SA

Luxury is a global phenomenon present in all societies in various forms.

The global market for wine: China leads the emergence of a new world order

Vinyards in the Sancerre wine-growing region of France. Peter/Flickr, CC BY-SA, CC BY-SA

The latest figures on the world wine market confirm that the industry is undergoing considerable change, with European countries finding their positions and strategies challenged by the new world.

From Bulgaria to East Asia,


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Trump’s Folly: Oil is a Worthless Commodity and Saudi’s Crown Prince Knows It

 

Trump’s Folly: Oil is a Worthless Commodity and Saudi’s Crown Prince Knows It

Courtesy of Juan Cole, Informed Comment

Crude oil prices are cratering, down 20% this year, in the biggest 6-month free fall in years.

As Annie Pei of CNBC notes, Investment guru Dennis Gartman admitted in an interview with the network that petroleum is “a worthless commodity.”

Gartman said that prices could rally a bit in a couple of weeks, but added “I’ll tell you one thing: in the long run, crude oil is heading egregiously lower. . .” Egregiously here means like shockingly.

Of Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, Gartman said, “He understands that crude oil, over the course of the next 20 to 40 years, is going to be a worthless commodity . . . It will be supplanted by something else.”

He is referring to the prince’s Vision 2030 plan for the kingdom, which hopes to get it off dependence on oil imports in only 4 years. That is, the crown prince knows that he is holding lakes worth of a stranded asset.

Some 70% of petroleum is used for transportation. Its use for electricity production in industrialized countries is rare.

The future of transportation is mass transit and electric vehicles. It took a decade for electric cars to reach 1 million on the road, in 2015. But in 2016 they doubled to two million, in just one year.

India, which has very little petroleum of its own, wants to cut down on its import bill, and avoid the kind of mega-smog now blanketing New Delhi. Its environment minister has therefore announced that he would like to see the Indian private automobile fleet be 100% electric by 2030!

India has about 70 million vehicles on the road. To replace them on this schedule, they’d have to buy about 5 million EV’s a year, 5 times more than were bought in the entire world last year. The Indian government says it will subsidize the process. If the Indian government subsidizes the engineering of an inexpensive Indian electric vehicle as well, it could take over the entire Asian market, tout de suite. Chinese EVs are already popular– the Chinese bought half a…
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Monday Market Movement – Hedging for the Holidays

Image result for be carefulBe careful out there!  

That's how I often close my posts but I want to double-plus emphasize it this morning as we have the 4th of July next Tuesday and there will be very few Americans working on Monday (US markets close at 1pm) - as it's the perfect chance to take a long weekend.  In fact, next week is likely to be the slowest trading week of the year but that makes it very dangerous because any kind of panic into low volumes can cause a sharp sell-off so BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!  

We already took our winning commodity trades off the table (you're welcome) in an Alert I sent to our Members at 5:36 becasue we had nice pre-market moves up in oil, gasoline, natural gas – even coffee – all of our weekend longs, in fact.  These are the same trades we discussed in Wednesday's Live Trading Webinar and, of course, in Thursday morning's PSW Report, where I said:

Gasoline (/RB) is a bit more encouraging, already racing back to $1.435 (up $630 per contract) after hitting $1.395 on yesterday's lows.  $1.42 is our long spot on /RB with tight stops below so it's game on again this morning, as it is with Oil (/CL) at $42.50 – if you are brave.  We still like Coffee (/KC) at $122 but it doesn't like us and Natural Gas (/NGV7) went from $2.95 to $3 (up $500 per contract) yesterday and now it's back at $2.95 so why not take it again?

Why not indeed as we cashed in 2 longs for another $1,760 profit on the rejection at $3.05 and that's certainly good enough for 2 day's work, right?  We teach people how to trade Futures contracts every Wednesday in our Live Trading Webinars as well as every day inside Philstockworld – you can join us HERE.  

Once you pick up a good trading channel, you can make these same trades over and over again for quick profits like this and that's the best way to get started trading Futures – quick in and out trades with tight stops to limit your losses.  I also…
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Sports, Stocks, & the Magic Quadrants

 

Sports, Stocks, & the Magic Quadrants

Courtesy of Wade, Investing Caffeine

Vegas Betting

Picking stocks is a tricky game and so is sports betting. With the NFL and NCAA football seasons only a few months away, we can analyze the professional sports-betting industry to better understand the complexities behind making money in the stock market. Anybody who has traveled to Las Vegas, and bet on a sporting event, understands that simply choosing a game winner is not enough for a casino to pay you winnings. You also need to forecast how many points you think a certain team will win or lose by (i.e., the so-called “spread”) – see also What Happens in Vegas, Stays on Wall Street. In the world of stocks, winning/losing is not measured by spreads but rather equities are measured by valuation (e.g., Price/Earnings or P/E ratios).

To make my point, here is a sports betting example from some years back:

Florida Gators vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers: Without knowing a lot about the powerhouse Southern Buccaneers squad from South Carolina, 99% of respondents polled before the game are likely to unanimously select the winner as Florida – a consistently dominant, nationally ranked powerhouse program. The tougher question becomes trickier if football observers are asked, “Will the Florida Gators win by more than 63 points?”(see picture below). Needless to say, although the Buccs kept it close in the first half, and only trailed by 42-3 at halftime, the Gators still managed to squeak by with a 62-3 victory. Importantly, if you had bet on this game and placed money on the Florida Gators, the overwhelming pre-game favorite, the 59 point margin of victory would have resulted in a losing wager. In order for Gator fans to win money, they would have needed Florida to win by 64 points. 

Point Spread

If investing and sports betting were easy, everybody would do it. The reason sports betting is so challenging is due to very intelligent statisticians and odds-makers that create very accurate point spreads. In the investing world, a broad swath of traders, market makers, speculators, investment bankers, and institutional/individual investors set equally efficient valuations over the long-term.

The goal in investing is very similar to sports betting. Successful professionals in both industries are able to consistently…
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Epic Pictures From Arizona’s Heatwave: “Everything Is Literally Melting”

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Ask any Arizonan whether their summers are more tolerable because "it's a dry heat" and you're likely to be asked to turn your oven to 150 degrees, stick your head inside for 20 minutes and report back as to whether or not the humidity within the oven ever crossed you mind.  Probably not.

And while Arizonans have learned to cope with the "dry heat," this summer has been particularly brutal for people living in the Southwest as temperatures have already soared to over 120 degrees in certain areas.  What's worse, it's only June.

And while the heatwave may not be that fun for the people living through it, it does making for some amazing pictures of stuff melting.

Perhaps that plastic mailbox post wasn't such a great idea in retrospect.

On the bright side, you can get all your baking done outside in mother nature's free oven.

Plastic fences…also not a great idea.  Come on Arizona…you're better than this.

Meanwhile, this Tempe resident (undoubtedly an ASU student judging by all the cheap alcoholic beverages) was just trying to do his part to fight climate change by recycling his beer bottles…it seems that ManBearPig won this round. 

Breakfast is served…

 

Meanwhile, even the road signs are melting down…

…which is going to make it even harder for this guy to get around town…

Al Gore is going to have a field day with these pics.





This is Your Nightmare Scenario

 

This is Your Nightmare Scenario

Courtesy of 

What would happen if stocks crash? What would that do to people’s retirement plans? How would that change the way young people think about stocks? And what would it do to our country?

The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio now reads 30 for just the third time ever. The two previous times it printed a three handle, not only were future returns lower, but they preceded major market tops that would define a generation of investors.

The chart below shows the CAPE ratio and the S&P 500 (log). This visual tells a lot of stories, but for the purposes of this exercise, I want to focus on the two previous valuation spikes in red, which were followed by two stock market crashes in gray.

2

The CAPE ratio is great for setting return expectations, but it’s terrible at anticipating the end of a bull market. For example, the CAPE passed 30 in June of 1997 and would ultimately peak at 43.5, two and a half years later. Over that time, the S&P 500 gained 84% (TR) and the NASDAQ Composite gained 228%!

The most reasonable statement one can make regarding the CAPE ratio at 30 is that we should expect lower future returns. And if we’ve learned anything over the last few years, it’s that expected returns do not equal realized returns, and expensive markets don’t have to crash in order to reach some sort of equilibrium. After all, it’s not as if there are 350 instances when the indicator hit 30 and 350 crashes followed. There were only two. Now three. The jury is still out.

Following the election and the rapid acceleration of stocks, a friend of mine took his 401(k) to cash. I have two other friends who recently purchased homes which they’re renting out. They both expect they’ll get a better return from their real estate than they would in the stock market. These are anecdotal observations, but the chart below confirms that Millennials aren’t too enamored with equities. And this is at all time…
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Friday Already? Russell Rebalancing Should Make Things Interesting

$8.5 Trillion.  

That's the value of the Russell "small cap" Index (IWM), which is up $3.7Tn (77%) from $4.8Tn in 4 years.  While that's impressive, of course, it's lagging the Nasdaq, which is up 130% in the same time-frame, so the Russell (and the other indexes) have a long way to go if they are going to catch the Nadaq (QQQ) – or maybe the Nasdaq is ridiculously overvalued?

The Russell rebalancing or "Reconstitution", as they like to call it, takes place today and thank goodness they have made their own infographic to explain it because I couldn't figure out how to do it in less than 10 pages – so click here if you want the details.  There will not likely be a huge effect, they are simply rearranging the deck chairs – it's not like when the Dow or S&P add or drop companies but strange things do happen as companies shift from the Russell 3000 to the 2000 or the 1000 because it takes them out of one ETF and puts them in another in some cases.  

Last year you can see that red spike down in June though – that was the last rebalancing and the index dropped from 1,175 to 1,075 (-8.5%) in 2 days – but then recovered the next week.  We went long on the Russell Futures (/TF) yesterday in our Morning Report and caught a $500 per contract gain up to 1,410 but today we are watching and waiting to see what happens.  

Getting back to the Nasdaq, although it seems outrageously high, the tech companies have come on strong with earnings – or at least Apple (AAPL) has, since that one company added $11Bn in profits or 50% of the Nasdaq's gains but that's enough to keep the p/e ratio of the entire index at a not-too-crazy 25.97 vs 24.09 for the S&P while the Russell 2,000 has a p/e ratio of 82.36 – THAT is why it's lagging so far behind!  

Now, to be fair, the Russell 2,000 tends to include some start-ups that are still in the money-losing phase of their existence and they have to get much bigger before they graduate to the…
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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 06-21-17

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

Major Topics:

00:02:16 Checking on the Markets
00:04:16 Petroleum Status Report
00:08:02 Futures Chart: Crude Oil
00:12:24 5% Portfolio FTR
00:18:42 Portfolio Review
00:19:44 BBBY
00:27:37 BBBY Trade Ideas
00:36:13 VZ
00:37:53 AT&T
00:41:52 AMZN
00:54:42 CBI Charts
00:58:20 CBI Balance Sheet
00:59:39 LL Charts
01:02:47 Long Term Portfolio
01:06:20 More Trade Ideas
01:10:32 GILD
01:11:31 Finviz: Checking on Company Stocks
01:22:12 Amazon
01:24:03 AI
01:28:14 LABU
01:35:36 DBA
01:40:17 FMCC
01:41:05 Checking on the Markets

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!





Thrilling Thursday – Nasdaq Makes New Highs, Ethereum Flash Crashes

Wow, what a ride!  

The #2 Crypto-currency, Ethereum had a bit of a flash crash yesterday, trading as low as 0.10 from the high of the day at $317 as a single seller tried to sell $30M worth in what is really an illiquid market.  Even after the first wave reversed, a second wave took the currency down to $130 on even heavier volume than the first, forcing the main exchange, Coinbase, to go offline.    

Even though the "Status ICO" (selling program called an "Initial Coin Offering") is over, there are still a huge number of transactions clogging up the network and the only way to get transactions in is to pay huge fees (which most of the exchanges probably don't want to do). Until it clears out, people are going to be missing ENS auctions, unable to withdraw from many wallets and exchanges, etc.  As noted by Emansipater, one of Reddit's crypto experts:

"Badly designed ICOs, plus selfish and foolish miners = major delays and maybe even substantial losses for everyone else." Judging by the ensuing flash crash, this was an accurate assessment.

Inexperienced traders on amateur exchanges – what could possibly go wrong?  

That's what I like about the Dollar – it hardly ever goes off-line, freezing my assets while it's value goes up and down 99% in a day.  Have I mentioned how much I like CASH!!! lately?  We certainly have tons of CASH!!! in our 4 Member Portfolios and, as noted in this weekend's Portfolio Review, we're very well-balanced but still tilted a little bit bearish as we simply can't endorse the insane valuations that are driving indexes, especially the Nasdaq, to record highs.  

I was on Money Talk last night and we discussed the trade ideas from yesterday's morning Report and I called a bottom on Oil (/CL), which was trading at about $42.50 last night after testing $42 during yesterday's carnage.  That's well below our $44.50 entry but we're sticking
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ValueWalk

Dragnet Surveillance & Censorship Legislation Will Do Nothing To Eliminate Cyber Jihad & Lone Wolf Recruiting

By Guest Post. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Recent efforts by governments to weaken encryption, introduce exploitable vulnerabilities into applications, and to develop Nation-state dragnet surveillance programs will do little to stymie the rise in terrorist attacks.  These efforts will be a detriment to national security and only further exhaust law enforcement resources and obfuscate adversary communiqués within a massive cloud of noise.

Photo by Visual Content, FlickrBackdoors for the Good Guys, Means Backdoors for the Bad Guys

Cyber-insecurity is not a natural problem; it is unintentionally caused by a combination of the negligence, naivety, and ignorance of irresponsible data managers or it is intentionally resultant of the actions of m...



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Phil's Favorites

Media Focus on Trump Blindsides the Public from Rising Wall Street Risks

Courtesy of Pam Martens.

Source: Federal Reserve Supervisory Stress Test 2017 (Numbers Represent Billions of Dollars in Projected Losses in a Severely Adverse Scenario)

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: June 27, 2017

There are some very serious undercurrents at work in the U.S. financial markets but they are getting short shrift on the front pages of newspapers as the President’s travails dominate the news. That’s working out well for Wall Street, which wants to keep the public slumbering as long as possible in hopes of gutting mo...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of June 26th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Zero Hedge

Seattle Min Wage Hikes Crushing The Poor: 6,700 Jobs Lost, Annual Wages Down $1,500 - UofW Study

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Just last week we noted that McDonalds launched plans to replace 2,500 human cashiers with digital kiosks like the ones below (see: McDonalds Is Replacing 2,500 Human Cashiers With Digital Kiosks: Here Is Its Math):

Of course, no matt...



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Chart School

Kelly Heros Sgt. OddBall philosophy to read stock charts

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Sgt OddBall said these famous words "Don’t hit me with them negative waves so early in the morning!".



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readtheticker.com PnF charts allows the chart reader the judge price waves of both positive and negative.

Waves are judged 3 (power), 2 (significant), 1 (above average). Blue is up, Red is down.

For each PnF wave you should judge: breaking into new ground or not, thrust, volume, net volume, strength (3, 2 or 1).

In an uptrend (mark up): You wish to see blue positive 3s and 2s controlling the trend, breaking into n...

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Insider Scoop

Hertz Gets A Second Intra-Day Boost On News Of Apple Rentals

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related AAPL Consumer Study Shows Which Cannabis Brands Are Winning The Design Race And Why What The Future Holds For Apple In China ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Biotech

We have a vaccine for six cancers; why are less than half of kids getting it?

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

We have a vaccine for six cancers; why are less than half of kids getting it?

Courtesy of Electra D. Paskett, The Ohio State University

Early in our careers, few of us imagined a vaccine could one day prevent cancer. Now there is a vaccine that keeps the risk of developing six Human Papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers at bay, but adoption of it has been slow and surprising low.

Although it’s been available for more than a decade, as of 2014 only 40 percent of girls had received the full three doses of the vaccine, while only ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Buyer Beware

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Entrepreneurs have a new trick to raise money quickly, and it all takes place online, free from the constraints of banks and regulators. As Axios reports, since the beginning of 2017, 65 startups have raised $522 million using initial coin offerings — trading a digital coin (essentially an investment in their company) for a digital currency, like Bitcoin or Ether.

One recent example, as NYT reports, saw Bay Area coders earn $35 million in less than 30 seconds during an online fund-raising event...



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Mapping The Market

Frontier laid off state Senate president after broadband vote it didn't like

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Speaking of FTR – not nice people…

Frontier laid off state Senate president after broadband vote it didn’t like

By Arstechnica.com

Broadband provider Frontier Communications recently laid off the West Virginia state Senate president after a vote the company didn't like—and yes, you read that correctly.

West Virginia does not have a full-time legislature, and state lawmakers can supplement their part-time government salaries ($20,000 a year,&...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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