Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Why Foreign Robots Are The Real U.S. Job Killer

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Over the past several months President Trump has called out pretty much every major auto OEM for their efforts to move low-skilled assembly jobs to Mexico. But absent new tariffs, it's not terribly surprising to most people that American companies would seek to move low-skilled, labor-intensive jobs to lower cost labor markets…the math is pretty simple.

But what is somewhat surprising is how poorly the U.S. is performing versus international competition in the development of advanced manufacturing robotics. As the Wall Street Journal points out this morning, when it comes to automating a manufacturing floor, buying robotics 'Made in America' isn't even an option.

Vickers Engineering Inc. embodies the potential of American manufacturing. The New Troy, Mich., machining company supplies precision parts to clients including Toyota Motor Corp. and Volkswagen AG , and exports to Mexico and Canada. Its staff has risen fivefold and average pay has doubled over the past decade, says Chief Executive Matt Tyler.

What’s helping to power Vickers’s made-in-America success? Advanced Japanese and German factory equipment. When Vickers first bought industrial robots in 2006, it chose between only European and Japanese models, says Mr. Tyler, and has been adding Japanese robots ever since. “We were not aware of any American-made option.”

America is losing the battle to supply the kind of cutting-edge production machinery that is powering the new automated factory floor, from digital machine tools to complex packaging systems and robotic arms.

Commerce Department data show the U.S. last year ran a trade deficit of $4.1 billion in advanced “flexible manufacturing” goods with Japan, the European Union and Switzerland, which lead the industry. That is double the 2003 deficit. It was down from $7 billion in 2001, but much of the decline came from foreign equipment suppliers expanding in the U.S., not from an American comeback.

Robts

Meanwhile, U.S. firms are also losing market share at home, according to Germany’s VDMA industrial-machinery trade group. In 1995, they satisfied 81% of domestic demand for factory equipment. In 2015, the most-recent data, that had slipped to 63%.

Robots

And while the U.S. lags, China is looking to make aggressive moves


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Investors Underperforming Their Own Investments

 

Investors Underperforming Their Own Investments

Courtesy of 

If a financial advisor could just accomplish one thing for clients – help them capture more of the returns that their own investments offer, then he or she has done something extremely worthy and valuable. This requires difficult work though: It’s easier to promise a client that they’ll be able to avoid drawdowns than it is to convince a client why they must learn to tolerate them. Every advisor’s client yearns to be able to say “My guy got me out” at the country club.

Steve Russolillo looks at the well-known phenomenon in which investors systematically underperform their own investments by acting emotionally, over-trading and making poor timing decisions.

Via Wall Street Journal:

Consider a long-running study of investor returns by Dalbar, a financial-research firm in Boston. It found the average investor in U.S. stock mutual funds lost 2.3% in 2015, whereas the S&P 500 was slightly positive that year, including dividends. Dalbar, which has published this study each year since 1994, plans to release an updated version this week.

And 2015 wasn’t an anomaly. The gap between investors’ returns and the market’s performance is even wider over a longer time horizon. Equity-fund investors earned just 3.7% annually over the past 30 years through 2015 compared with a 10.4% annual return for the S&P 500.

The gaps between blue and green in the chart above are abominable. Critics will say that the Dalbar study has flaws and that the calculations overstate the problems. Anecdotally, I disagree. We see investor portfolios every week coming in over the transom at my shop and I am never not surprised by what goes on out there.

The brokerages don’t care if this happens – and, in fact, some of them actively encourage it given the fact that they get paid on the trading you do, and not the sitting. Volatility avoidance is what crushes long-term returns, which is very counterintuitive. Vol is not the enemy because it causes fluctuation – rather, it is the enemy because it drives bad decisions.

There might always be a gap between the performance available and the performance an individual receives,


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TrumpDon’tCare Plan Fails to Pass – Will the TrumpDon’tTax Act be Next?

And down we go!  

I'll bet those hedges are looking better and better every day now, right?  Now that the enthusiastic GOP investors have learned their first (of many) political lessons of the Trump Error (and we had plenty under Obama when we had both houses), we'll see how their enthusiasm for the market holds up because, as we've noted before – there is/was a huge disparity between economic optimism of Republicans and Democrats and, if the Republicans begin to doubt to the Power of Trump – all those confidence numbers can drop like a rock tied to a bigger rock.

Even as I write this we're getting mail from people trying to explain gravity to us.  Yes, we get it, it was an expression!  On the other hand, a lot of the basics need to be explained to the Trump camp and their supporters if they are going to get anything other than executive orders passed this term (however long that lasts).  The Futures, meanwhile, are following through to the downside this morning and we ran our 5% Rule through the Charts in this morning's Alert to our Members.  Here are the Dow notes as an example:

So Dow 21,000 less 5% is 19,950 and 2.5% is 20,475 so we'll look for that for support and the 525 drop we can call 20,500 the line that matters with 100-point bounces to 20,600 and 20,700 but I'd start shorting at 20,600 – if we even make that.  Worse would be failing to retake 20,500 – then it's almost a certainty we drop another 500.

This is happening despite us being wrong about the Dollar on Friday morning, as 99.50 did not hold and we are now at 98.90, which is down $700 per contract (/DX) at the moment but I still have faith but, if I'm right, that will be bad news for the indexes as the weak Dollar is the only thing keeping them from those 5% corrections that we think are inevitable at this point (so you may was well lay back and enjoy it – hat tip
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Gibberish Is the White House’s New Normal

 

Gibberish Is the White House’s New Normal

Courtesy of 

This post first appeared on BillMoyers.com.

Once upon a time, there were presidents for whom English seemed their native language. Barack Obama most recently. He deliberated. At a press conference or in an interview — just about whenever he wasn’t speaking from a text — his pauses were as common as other people’s “uh’s.” He was not pausing because his vocabulary was impoverished. He was pausing to put words into sequence. He was putting phrases together with care, word by word, trying out words before uttering them, checking to feel out what they would sound like once uttered. It was important to him because he did not want to be misunderstood. President Obama valued precision, in no small part because he knew he lived in a world where every last presidential word was a speech act, a declaration with consequence, so that the very statement that the sky was blue, say, would be scoured for evidence that the president was declaring a policy on the nature of nature.

That was then. Now we have a president who, when he speaks, spatters the air with unfinished chunks, many of which do not qualify as sentences, and which do not follow from previous chunks. He does not release words into a stream of consciousness but into a heap. He heaps words on top of words, to overwhelm meaning with vague gestures. He does not think, he lurches.

Here are some examples from TIME’s transcript of their cover story made out of their phone interview with the president of the United States. I have italicized the non sequiturs, incomplete propositions, indefinite pronouns and other obscurities that amount to verbal mud.

Scherer: So you don’t feel like Comey’s testimony in any way takes away from the credibility of the tweets you put out, even with the quotes?

Trump: No, I have, look. I have articles saying it happened. But you have to take a look at what they, they just went out at a news conference.

Scherer: Mitch McConnell has said


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America can’t be first without Europe

 

America can't be first without Europe

Courtesy of Earl Anthony Wayne, Hamilton College and Daniel S. Hamilton, Johns Hopkins University

On March 25, European Union leaders celebrate the 60th anniversary of their founding treaty, a central pillar of the structure set up in the aftermath of World War II to solidify peace, prosperity and partnership in Europe. The Conversation

Over the last 60 years, the EU (and its predecessors) has served as an essential U.S. partner: for example, by enhancing economic opportunity for U.S. companies in Europe and increasingly supplying vital foreign assistance and diplomatic support to help solve international problems. Indeed, if the EU did not already exist, the United States would be looking to invent something like it to help preserve peace and generate prosperity on a continent that suffered through two devastating world wars.

More recently, however, the EU has faced a variety of existential threats as the euro crisis rattled its members’ financial well-being, economic growth slowed, U.K. voters opted to leave the union and “euroskeptics” in countries like France and the Netherlands use criticism of Brussels to contest elections. And even in the U.S., some reacted to Brexit with cheers.

The bottom line – based on our many year of experience as diplomats, policymakers and researchers on transatlantic issues – is that the U.S. needs a strong economic and political partnership with Europe to advance its own economic well-being and address vexing international and regional issues. Such a partnership would be enormously more difficult to maintain without the EU’s single voice, something Washington would be wise to remember.

Ensuring peace and prosperity

As it happens, the EU might not even exist today if it wasn’t for the United States and its efforts to rebuild Europe – via the Marshall Plan – and stop the spread of Communism following World War II.

Seventy years ago, U.S. Secretary of State George Marshall, U.S. President Harry Truman and members of Congress – Republicans and Democrats alike – agreed that the way to ensure peace and prosperity in Europe was for Europeans to…
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Weekend Reading: Lack Of Perspective

Courtesy of Lance Roberts, Real Investment Advice

In last weekend’s missive I wrote:

“Speaking of low volatility, the market has now gone 108-trading days without a drop of 1% for both the Dow and the S&P 500. This is the longest stretch since September of 1993 for the Dow and December of 1995 for the S&P 500.

The issue becomes, of course, which way the market breaks when volatility returns to the market. Over the course of the last three years, in particular, those breaks have been to the downside as shown below.”

“Given the particularly extreme overbought condition that currently exists, the strongest odds suggest the next pickup in volatility will be in the form of a corrective action to reverse some of that condition.”

Of course, on Tuesday afternoon that long streak of complacency came to an end as all major U.S. markets tumbled by more than 1% by the close.

While such an event has been expected, it still seemed to catch investors by surprise. Of course, given such a long period of upwardly trending prices with exceptionally low volatility, investors had been lulled into very high levels of complacency. The media had also fallen into the trap, as noted by the graphic above, suggesting the one-day correction had been a major mean reverting event.

It wasn’t.

As shown in the chart above, updated through Thursday, all indicators remain extremely overbought. While the markets may indeed rally into Friday’s close, it is quite likely the correction that began on Tuesday is not complete as of yet.

Furthermore, after such a long period of low volatility, the sharp decline in asset prices is one day FELT much worse than it actually was. 

This is the important, and often missed point about “passive indexing.”

While a 10% decline in the market certainly does SOUND that bad, with a 2000 point loss on the Dow, or a 230 point loss on the S&P 500, FEELS entirely different. This is where investors start making emotionally bad investment decisions where “passive investing” ultimately becomes “panic selling.”

It is the “lack of perspective” by investors that eventually lead them into the myriad of investment mistakes which destroys investment capital.


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Falling Friday – Market Wraps Up Worst Week of Trump Error

Image result for trump don't careUtter chaos!

As noted by the GOP leadership: "There is no Plan B" to the TrumpDon'tCare Act.  Either the GOP guts health care and takes insurance away from 24M Americans and begins to defund Medicaid or, as Trump now states "Obmacare Stays."  I know – WTF?  Is it possible that the GOP has purposely put forth an unpassable bill BECAUSE they realize Obmacare is too good to kill?

Keep in mind this is just the House Vote on Health Care, which was supposed to be easy, the Senate vote is next and the changes they made in the bill could cause it to fail simply under the parliamentary rules (because they changed it to a simple majority, which caused other rules to kick in).  

If 3 GOP Senators defect, the Bill dies and, even if it passes, the Dems can tie it up in court for a long time.  Since they have a 44 vote advantage in the House (10%) and can't get them in line, it's reasonable to assume they are going to have trouble with at least 5 Senators and Senators have to Represent whole states – this is a suicide mission for Republican Senators from Democratic states.  It's very possible this battle will cost the GOP the Senate next year and the Senate gets to do all those fun investigations.  So that's the upside on the Bill – the downside is TOTAL CHAOS!

Image result for white house chaos cartoonOf course, that may be exactly what the White House wanted because, clearly, they did not have a real Health Care plan but, much more importantly, you forgot all about Trump's false accusations that Obama tapped his phone and, even though Devin Nunes jumped on a grenade for Trump and tried to convince the American People that mentions of the Trump team in some investigations justified Trump's paranioa (destroying his own reputation in the process) - no one really fell for it but, suddenly, Health Care distracted us – how convenient!  

Yesterday, I was on the Benzinga Pre-Market Report at 8:30 and they asked me how to play the Dow and I told them (20 minutes in): "Figure
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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 03-22-17

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

Major Topics:

00:02:17 Checking on the Markets
00:07:22 TSLA & AMZN
00:08:24 S&P 500
00:10:16 DJIA
00:12:12 Nasdaq 100
00:13:32 Russell 2000
00:15:11 Trade Ideas
00:16:01 SDS Trade Ideas
00:19:11 The age you peak at everything
00:27:04 Top Trades
00:29:21 Long-Term Portfolio
00:32:08 M Trade Ideas
00:36:25 Short-Term Portfolio
00:42:21 Trade Ideas
00:48:09 UCO
00:51:03 USO Charts
00:52:57 Active Trader
00:58:05 Crude Oil Brent
01:12:26 Petroleum Status Report
01:20:42 More Trade Ideas
01:22:26 AMGN
01:29:48 Active Trader
01:30:50 Russell 2000
01:39:13 5% Portfolio
01:43:21 AMGN
01:46:51 TZA
01:51:48 More Trade Ideas
01:55:05 SPX
01:57:38 TGT

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!

 





Thoughtless Thursday – TrumpDon’tCare Health Plan Gets a Vote

Image result for trump health careBig vote tonight.

If the TrumpDon'tCare Plan is approved (the CBO says it can no longer be called a health plan since the overall goal is to kill as many people as possible), then Trump's agenda is winning and the markets could leg higher.  If, on the other hand, the GOP revolts against The Donald, all Hell could break loose so ignore the politics if you want to but we're paying very close attention! 

Interestingly, the main GOP objection to TrumpDon'tCare is that it still cared about forcing Health Insurance Companies to provide minimum benefits to their customers.  That has now been removed by the White House and now the Insurance Companies don't have to do anything for anyone at any time – isn't that great?  As noted by Politico, however:

While altering the coverage requirements could help win over the Freedom Caucus members, it could drive away moderates — another coalition that House leaders need to build upon in the final 24 hours before the planned vote on Thursday. House leaders are still short of the 215 votes they need.

Image result for trump health care cartoonIt's going to be hard to bridge the gap because the bill still is not Draconian enough for the "Freedom Caucus":

Freedom Caucus members, led by Meadows, want at least some parts of Title One of the bill removed. Included in Title One are many of the Affordable Care Act's benefits, like a prohibition on insurers denying coverage over pre-existing conditions and a prohibition on lifetime and annual limits.

That's right, your pre-existing conditions can now stop you from getting coverage and, even if you are covered, there can be a cap – so don't get too sick or you'll be on your own!  Aside from leading to a great unwinding in the Health Care, Pharma and Biotech sectors, TrumpDon'tCare will put a huge burden on the bottom 99% and eat into their disposable income
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Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds

 

Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Outside the Box

You and I are both rational beings who let facts drive our thinking, but it seems our fellow humans are not so thoughtful. Or at least that’s what the research says. It turns out that behavioral psychologists have been undermining the bastions of human reasonability for decades, starting with some nefarious characters in the Stanford University psych department back in the ’70s, whose devilishly clever experiments were then taken a frightening step further at that equally suspect institution over on the other coast: Harvard. Don’t these mental types have anything better to do than conclusively prove that nobody (but you and I) can think straight?

Apparently not. And then the Harvard guys had the temerity to suggest that the human race’s muddleheadedness goes allllllll the way back to the time we spent trotting around on the African savannah. Remember that? Lotsa fun – if you didn’t get chewed up by a pack of hyenas or run down by a herd of water buffalos. You see, we weren’t just sitting out there on the plain playing checkers or debating the finer points of Cartesian philosophy. No, we were hanging on by the skin of our teeth – even as our teeth got smaller so our brains could get bigger. But it turns out that the most significant way our brains got bigger – and the main reason we survived and evolved into the total media animals we are today – was that we figured out how to cooperate.

Or at least that’s what the Harvard guys say. Their argument runs more or less like this:

It’s quite frustrating … when you think about it. But I guess it’s better to face the truth about ourselves than to go along blindly, always wondering over the irrational hijinks our fellow two-leggeds are forever getting up to.

The whole sordid – but not entirely unhopeful – story is laid out by Elizabeth Kolbert in a piece titled “Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds,” in – you guessed it – The New Yorker … yes, the only rag in the greater English-speaking world that insists


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Zero Hedge

This '60 Minutes Segment' On "Fake News" Illustrates Why And How The MSM Is Losing The Media War

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Duane Norman via Free Market Shooter,

Yesterday, 60 Minutes aired a segment on “fake news,” which featured correspondent Scott Pelley interviewing several guests as per their typical style.  Regarding the guests, it was shocking to see Mike Cernovich of ...



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ValueWalk

It's Tsar, Not Comrade

By Confluence Investment Management. Originally published at ValueWalk.

February 12th was the 100-year anniversary of the Russian Revolution. Surprisingly, the Kremlin has taken a very low-key stance on the centenary. We believe the government’s decision to downplay this historical event offers an insight into Russian President Putin’s thinking.

Russian Revolution

See page for author [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

In this report, we will present a history of the Russian Revolution, showing how civil order deteriorated in the years after 1917. We will offer observations of how the Kremlin’s treatment of the revolution reflect...



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Phil's Favorites

Why Foreign Robots Are The Real U.S. Job Killer

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Over the past several months President Trump has called out pretty much every major auto OEM for their efforts to move low-skilled assembly jobs to Mexico. But absent new tariffs, it's not terribly surprising to most people that American companies would seek to move low-skilled, labor-intensive jobs to lower cost labor markets...the math is pretty simple.

But what is somewhat surprising is how poorly the U.S. is performing versus international competition in the development of advanced manufacturing robotics. As the Wall Street Journal points out this morning, when it comes to automating a manufacturing floor, buying robotics 'Made in Ame...



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Chart School

Mixed bag of tricks; but good chance of market swing lows

Courtesy of Declan.

The damage was done premarket and value buyers were quick to take advantage. The index which benefited the most was the Nasdaq. It started today just above the 50-day MA and rallied off that. Volume wasn't great and the technical picture didn't really improve, but action like today's can prove to be a good starting point for a swing low.


Despite the gain in the Nasdaq, Breadth metrics are weakening but are neither overbought nor oversold.  The next strong swing low will likely take a tag of the light green ...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

These Charts Show Alarm Bells Ringing on the Trump Trade (Bloomberg)

Investors on Monday further unwound trades initiated in November resting on the idea that the election of Donald Trump and a Republican Congress meant smooth passage of an agenda that featured business-friendly tax cuts and regulatory changes.

U.S. equity futures at six-week low after Trump healthcare setback (Reuters)

U.S. equity index futures fell to a six-week low on Sunday in a sign Wall Street would start the week defensively after Republicans pulled legislation to overhaul the U.S. healthcare system in a...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 27th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stocks and Bonds; Critical change of direction in play?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Since the summer of 2016, stocks have done very well and bonds have been thumped, as rates have risen sharply. Is it time for these trends to take a break? Below compares the performance of the S&P 500, with the popular bond ETF TLT over the past 9-months.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The performance spread between stocks and bonds over the past 9-months is a big one! Rare to see the spread between the two...



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Members' Corner

More Natterings

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

[Click on the titles for the full articles.]

A Quick $20 Trick?

Summary

Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:

  • Last time out, Sinbad The Sailor, QuickLogic.
  • GlobalFoundries, Jha, Smartron and cricket.
  • Quick money, fungible, demographics, QUIK focus.

Last Time Out

Monetary policy is just one form of policy that effects capital,...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles Below Gold As China Tightens Regulations

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Having rebounded rapidly from the ETF-decision disappointment, Bitcoin suffered another major setback overnight as Chinese regulators are circulating new guidelines that, if enacted, would require exchanges to verify the identity of clients and adhere to banking regulations.

A New York startup called Chainalysis estimated that roughly $2 billion of bitcoin moved out of China in 2016.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, the move to regulate bitcoin exchanges brings assurance that Chinese authorities will tolerate some level of trading, after months of uncertainty. A draft of the guidelines also indicates th...



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Mapping The Market

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

Courtesy of Jean Luc

I am trying to remember who on this board said that people wanted to Trump because they want their freedom back. Well….

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

By Daniel Cooper, Endgadget

ISPs will soon be able to sell your most private data without your consent.

As expected, Republicans in Congress have begun the process of rolling back the FCC's broadband privacy rules which prevent excessive surveillance. Arizona Republican Jeff Flake introduced a resolution to scrub the rules, using Congress' powers to invalidate recently-approved federal regulations. Reuters reports that the move has broad support, with 34 other names throwing their weight behind the res...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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