Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Philstockworld Top Trade Review

Image result for top trade ideasThe pressure is on!  

Top Trades has become one of Philstockworld's most popular Memberships and that's a shame because I actually hate trading services that just give out trade ideas.  Unfortunately, that's what the market demands and, though Top Trade Members miss out on the trading education and deep discussions we have in our Live Member Chat Room, they usually do get a lot of great trades.

That is, until September they did!  In our first year of Top Trades, beginning in August of 2015, 96 out of 119 Trade Ideas (80.6%) were immediate winners and half of the initial losers turned around over time and became winners as well.  Perhaps it was shooting fish in a barrel in a bull market.  Unfortunately, our second year got off to a rough start, with just 7 of our 16 ideas in September and October winning by Dec 10th (we have to give them some time before reviewing).  Of those 9 losing trades:

  • ERIC is improved but still red
  • TEVA has not improved
  • MON is now a winner 
  • CMG is a home run
  • SGYP is a huge winner
  • LL got worse
  • TASR is now a winner 
  • TWTR still in the red 
  • JO was a winner but now a loser again (wild swings) 

So 4 of our 5 losers are now winners and these are long-term trades, for the most part – it's not like we can expect every one to win immediately.  The point is that these reviews are simply initial snapshots to see how we're doing – in case our trade need adjustments in their early stages – they are far from the final word on these trades.  In this month's review, we will pick up in November and review the next two months.  

The secret to our success in Top Trades is PATIENCE!!! Patience is the hardest thing we try to teach our Members at Philstockworld as it tends to take years of practice and the nice thing about the Top Trades Membership is that you don't have a choice – we make
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Tax Reform: The Good, the Bad, and the Really Ugly-Part Three

 

Tax Reform: The Good, the Bad, and the Really Ugly—Part Three

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

Today we come to part 3 of my tax reform series. So far, we’ve introduced the challenge and begun to describe the main proposed GOP solution. Today we’ll look at the new and widely misunderstood “border adjustment” idea and talk about both its good and bad points. What follows may make more sense if you have first read part 1 and part 2. Next week we’ll explore what I think would be a far superior option, though one that is based on the spirit of the current proposal. If House leadership thinks they can get the present proposal through (doubtful), then they should stop messing around and do something really controversial by changing the entire terms of engagement. As my friend Newt Gingrich has often told me, “John, real change requires real change.”  

Next week we’ll explore what I think would be a far superior option, though one that is based on the spirit of the current proposal. If House leadership thinks they can get the present proposal through (doubtful), then they should stop messing around and do something really controversial by changing the entire terms of engagement. As my friend Newt Gingrich has often told me, “John, real change requires real change.”  

Warning: There is something in this series to offend almost everyone. Everything is fair game. If nothing else, I hope that no one can accuse me of simply talking the Republican book. I think this letter will pretty much eviscerate the key component of the proposed Republican tax plan. I hope the plan will be seriously changed. Many of you have direct contacts with your Senators and Representatives on both sides of the aisle. I urge you to send this letter to them and talk to them. This is one of the most serious national conversations we have ever had.

We can all argue about how big government should be, but whatever we decide upon, we must pay for, if not through taxation then through a massive debt-deflationary depression or serious inflation. (Next week we’ll talk about how to avoid these problematic outcomes. Yes, it can be done.)…
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US Republicans give the oil industry what it wants – less transparency

 

Picture credit: Darren Baker / shutterstock

US Republicans give the oil industry what it wants – less transparency

Courtesy of Costantino Grasso, University of East London

Republicans in the US have axed Obama-era anti-corruption rules for energy and mining companies. The move, which is awaiting sign-off by President Trump, reverses years of progress in a sector often accused of dodgy dealings. It also threatens to kick off a global race to the bottom, as countries compete to offer oil firms the murkiest business environment.

The rule in question is a requirement for American oil, gas and mining companies to publicly disclose all payments of US$100,000 or more to foreign governments in connection with projects abroad. A version of the rule was first adopted in 2012 under the Dodd-Frank Act, passed in response to the financial crisis. After several years of legal battles with industry lobbyists, the latest version was implemented in 2016.

On February 3 the Republican-controlled Senate passed a resolution to scrap the requirement entirely. The resolution has already passed through the House of Representatives, and Trump is expected to give final approval within days.

Energy firms have always been bitterly opposed to these rules – and for good reason. For decades, many of them have used corruption to exploit developing countries that are resource-rich but badly governed. As far back as 1976 the Watergate scandal revealed several well-known American oil companies had counterfeited their records abroad or utilised shell companies in tax havens such as the Bahamas. It is not surprising that Rex Tillerson, Trump’s new secretary of state, personally lobbied against those transparency rules when he was Exxon’s top executive.

Who wants to zoom in on Big Oil’s financial affairs? Not former oilman Rex Tillerson. GongTo / shutterstock

The Republicans have sided firmly with the energy firms. The latest resolution was sponsored by Senator James Inhofe from oil-rich Oklahoma, a man who once displayed a snowball in congress to show global warming wasn’t happening. In the Senate, Inhofe argued the previous transparency “struck at the heart of American competitiveness” by making public…
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Staying politically neutral is more dangerous for companies than you think

 

Staying politically neutral is more dangerous for companies than you think

Courtesy of Daniel Korschun, Drexel University

President Donald Trump’s executive order temporarily banning immigration from seven Muslim countries has put corporate executives in a bind. Almost from the moment he announced the ban, questions poured in about where those executives stood on the issue.

The media have highlighted a cluster of companies that have made public statements against the executive order. For example, Netflix called it “un-American,” while Ford Motor Company said: “We do not support this policy or any other that goes against our values as a company.”

But overlooked are the many more companies that tried to distance themselves from the debate. Chevron, Disney, Verizon, GM, Wells Fargo and others have all taken a wait-and-see approach. An illustrative example is Morgan Stanley, which expressed concern and said it is “closely monitoring developments.”

Such responses are no doubt based on the prevailing wisdom that companies need to stay out of politics. Most large corporations have diverse constituencies that draw from both sides of the political spectrum. As a result, executives fear that attracting the political spotlight by taking a stand on the executive order will alienate either the millions of customers who voted for Trump or the millions who voted against him.

My research suggests their fears are misplaced. And in fact, the opposite may be true: It may be more dangerous to remain silent than to take a political stand.

Violating expectations

Consumers today form relationships with a company based not only on the quality of the products and services it sells but also on a set of expectations of how it should comport itself (see also here).

When companies violate these expectations by behaving inconsistently, consumers reconsider that relationship. Obviously, this can have a major impact on company performance if many customers experience a violation.

My colleagues and I at Clemson University and Drexel University have been testing this notion in a series of
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Dodd-Frankly Speaking

 

Dodd-Frankly Speaking

Courtesy of 

The Wall Street Journal is reporting this morning that household debt grew in 2016 by the most in almost a decade. The composition is different (more auto, less mortgage) but this is exactly what the Federal Reserve has been trying to produce all this time – velocity of money moving throughout the economy.

Total household debt climbed by $226 billion in the final three months of 2016, according to a report Thursday from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Total household debts are now just $99 billion shy of the all-time peak of $12.7 trillion set in the third quarter of 2008 just as the banking system began crashing down. The New York Fed estimates that debt is highly likely to set a new record in 2017.

But “a new record” should be looked at in the context of the overall economy, not nominally. We’re not nearly in the same place we were headed into the financial crisis when viewed correctly, as Josh Zumbrun points out:

The New York Fed doesn’t adjust its figures for inflation. When measured against the broader economy, total household borrowing today is 67% of nominal gross domestic product, compared with about 85% in 2008.

The bad news is that much of the growth in household indebtedness has come from student and auto loans. The Fed’s data on auto loan delinquencies this week is somewhat troubling. Here’s the New York Post:

Auto loan delinquencies in the fourth quarter hit their highest level since the financial crisis, a report out Thursday revealed.

About $23.27 billion in loans were 30 days or more late as of Dec. 31 — a whopping 14 percent increase from the year earlier and the most since the $23.46 billion in the third quarter of 2008, according to the New York Federal Reserve.

Delinquencies have moved up as the credit quality of the loans has deteriorated and the length of the auto loans has increased — sometimes to 84 months.

Sounds scary. But – when you look at the breakdown between subprime auto loans and regular…
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Faltering Friday – Market Finally Pulls Back on Day 2,003

DJIA2,002 trading days.

That's how long this bull market has been going on.  That is also exactly how long the 1920s bull market lasted so today is the great Crashiversary of that historic event – happy Black Friday to you all!

There is, of course, no reason to expect a significant correction today – we are simply passing a milestone that makes this the longest bull rally in history (assuming we survive the day). Of course, like many pre-crash markets, the volume sucks:

"For decades rising volumes have preceded a rise in prices in the stock market. Likewise, declining volume leads to a decline in prices,"Michael Paulenoff of Pattern Analytics said.

"Right now volumes are 50% lower in the S&P than they were in the weeks leading up to the November election when the markets saw a streak of declines," he added.  "The VIX is all messed up, we are somewhere around 11 and 12 when we should be at 8." 

Using Fibonacci levels, a technical analysis tool used by traders 'to identify strategic places for transactions to be placed, target prices or stop losses,' Raymond James identified the resistance point for traders to exit the market the S&P 500 at around 2,335, right above the current level of 2,349.  

For me, I don't buy into that technical mumbo-jumbo.  I think the market is going to pull back simply because it's ridiculously overvalued and is not taking into account all the potential negatives that lie ahead including Trade Wars, Currency Wars and Rate Hikes – among the things most likely to happen before Q1 ends in 45 more days. At which time we will have to face the reality of Q1 earnings – the ones that are supposed to be flying higher to justify these ridiculous valuations.  

By the way, you are welcome on oil – down another $500 per contract on /CL Futures and that's $2,000 worth of winning oil plays alone that we've given you this week so don't tell me you can't afford to subscribe you cheap bastard!  More to the point – can you afford not to in this trading environment?  

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On Monday he ate through one Apple. But he was still hungry!

 

On Monday he ate through one Apple. But he was still hungry!

Courtesy of 

How about a round of applause for Warren Buffett!

He’s in his 80’s but still evolving his investment process, and keeping an open mind to the fact that things change in this world. Unless you know a lot of older people, it’s hard to understand how monumental his latest moves have been.

This week, we learned that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has become the fifth largest investor in Apple after a nearly lifelong aversion to technology stocks.

We also learned that he’s upped his stakes in four airline stocks – American Airlines, Delta Airlines, Southwest Airlines and United Continental Holdings. He is the largest or the second largest holder of each of the four. This after publicly despising the airline business for decades upon decades.

For longtime Buffett watchers, these new investments are not so much of a shock as they might appear to more casual observers. Because what Buffett loves more than anything in the world is paying a fair price for a business with huge barriers to entry. In the parlance of stockpickers, we call these moats (as in the defensive ring of water that surrounded the medieval castles of yore). A good moat means sustainable profit margins and a defensible business model that allows for an investment holding period of (hopefully) forever.

 

An illustration of Buffett’s love for moats (and disinterest in companies without them) can also be seen in another bit of news we learned from the Berkshire 13F filing this week – he’s almost completely slashed his position in Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart is being disrupted mightily right now for the first time in its history. The story of WMT was always about how good its logistics and efficiencies were. This allowed them to beat everyone on price.

But Amazon is pulling this vaunted advantage down brick by brick, with investments in infrastructure, shipping technology and physical distribution on a massive scale. They’re building their own trucking fleets, warehouses, distribution centers and even their own fleet of UPS-like planes. Wal-Mart is no longer the cheapest or the most efficient retailer in the country – just the one…
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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 02-15-17

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

Major Topics:

00:01:43 CL Trade
00:03:01 Checking on the Markets
00:06:22 Seeking Alpha Market News
00:08:21 Yahoo
00:12:43 RB Trades
00:19:13 5% Portfolio
00:22:04 UNG and LNG
00:28:27 NG
00:33:53 Active Trader
00:48:58 Checking on the Markets
00:52:50 Containers
00:55:00 LTP
00:56:47 Butterfly Portfolio
00:58:07 April Sales
00:59:54 PG Charts
01:04:54 Futures Trading Charts – Light Crude Oil
01:07:43 Futures Trading Charts – Gasoline
01:12:07 Active Trader
01:14:56 More Trade Ideas
01:17:01 Dollar
01:24:12 Oil & Gasoline Charts
01:26:56 AAPL Trade Ideas
01:42:07 SLW Charts
01:47:39 Active Trader
01:50:32 More Trade Ideas
01:52:24 YELP
01:58:47 AAPL
02:01:28 Active Trader

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!

 





Thrilling Thursday – March Rate Hike Looms But Market Ignores Risk

How many ways can they tell you?  

Every Fed speaker this week has indicated that rates will be going up sooner than later and CPI and PPI coming in at DOUBLE expectations yesterday indicated the Fed is already behind the curve on raising rates and Yellen, yesterday and Tuesday said to Congress "if we do not raise rates we run the risk of causing a Recession" – seems pretty clear to me.  Still the markets are only pricing in a 41% chance of a hike at the March 15th meeting – beware the ides of March indeed!  

The Fed needs 3 hikes in 2017 and if not March, we're left with May 3rd, June 14th, July 26th, Sept 20th, Nov 1st and Dec 13th.  They won't want to raise two meetings in a row so, if not March, then May is a must and every other after that but May is a long time to wait when inflation is double your expectations on Feb 15th.  So, unless CPI and PPI have substantially calmed down over the next 30 days – expect a rate hike at the March meeting.

Another thing that's gotten ridiculously inflated is the S&P's Price to Book Value Ratio, now back over 3 for the first time since the catastrophic top of 2007.  Ah, good times…

The Book Value of equity is an accounting measure that is based on the historic cost principle, and reflects past issuances of equity, augmented by any profits or losses, and reduced by dividends and share buybacks.  Essentially, it's the price a buyer would be expected to pay for the company, as is, in a takeover or liquidation.  The Price of an equity is nothing more than speculation on the future value of the company so a PBV of 3 indicates you are paying 3 times more than the stocks are actually worth.  

Now, the average company is not going bankrupt, so it's normal to pay something for the operation of the company and your expected future income but 2-2.4 is a more normal PBV, not 3 – 3 is simply about 30% too expensive.  

Of course, President Trump promises to lower those nasty taxes but, as
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Clear the Smog

 

Clear the Smog

Courtesy of  and 

This post first appeared on BillMoyers.com.

Scott Pruitt is an alarming choice to lead the Environmental Protection Agency, yet the Republican majority in the Senate is pushing to confirm him later this week.

This is an agency, remember, that was created to protect our health, our children’s health and our environment from toxic products and pollution. President Richard Nixon, a Republican president, signed it into law.

Pruitt, currently the attorney general of Oklahoma, is on the side of the polluters. He shut down his state’s own environmental enforcement unit. He joined polluters at least 14 times to sue the EPA in order to weaken laws.

He’s a living, breathing, walking conflict of interest. The Intercept’s Sharon Lerner reported on his conflicts earlier this week. Some 15 companies with EPA enforcement actions against them in recent years have either donated directly to Pruitt, to his super PAC or to the Association of Attorneys General when he led it. Those companies include Koch Industries, Murray Energy, Peabody Coal and Monsanto.

Pruitt’s conflicts were so brazen that at the Senate hearing Democrats boycotted the vote to confirm him. Republicans, on whom polluters spend lavishly, pushed his nomination out of committee and onto the Senate floor, where it is to be voted on possibly as soon as Friday afternoon.

More evidence has surfaced that will show just where Pruitt’s loyalties lies: 3,000 emails between Pruitt and fossil fuel companies that could potentially reveal even more cozy ties with the energy industry. Some have been released already, like the letter to the EPA written by lawyers for one energy company which Pruitt then sent with his name on it to dispute the EPA’s methods for estimating methane emissions.

But the public interest group Center for Media and Democracy says Pruitt is withholding many more documents. For more than two years, the center has asked for these emails to be released. They are supposed to be public under Oklahoma’s open records rules. During the confirmation hearing, senators also…
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Zero Hedge

Man In Hiding After Confessing To Illegal Fundraising For The Clintons: "Fears Untimely Death"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

The pattern continues…

Those who are connected to the crimes and misdemeanors of the Clinton crime cartel live in hiding for fear of their lives.

Of course there was funneling of money going on. The Wikileaks and Guccifer 2.0 hacks went along way in documenting the quid pro quo nature of Clinton diplomacy.

Back in the 90s, it was se...



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Phil's Favorites

Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

Courtesy of Jean Luc

Good article about facts and why we reject them:

WHY FACTS DON’T CHANGE OUR MINDS

New discoveries about the human mind show the limitations of reason.

By Elizabeth Kolbert

In “Denying to the Grave: Why We Ignore the Facts That Will Save Us” (Oxford), Jack Gorman, a psychiatrist, and his daughter, Sara Gorman, a public-health specialist, probe the gap between what science tells us and what we tell ourselves. Their concern is with those persistent beliefs which are not just demonstrably false but also potentially deadly, like the conviction that vaccines are hazardous. Of course, what’s hazardous is not being vaccinated; that’s why vaccines were created in the first place. “Immunization is one of the triumphs of modern medicine,” the Gormans no...



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Mapping The Market

Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

Courtesy of Jean Luc

Good article about facts and why we reject them:

WHY FACTS DON’T CHANGE OUR MINDS

New discoveries about the human mind show the limitations of reason.

By Elizabeth Kolbert

In “Denying to the Grave: Why We Ignore the Facts That Will Save Us” (Oxford), Jack Gorman, a psychiatrist, and his daughter, Sara Gorman, a public-health specialist, probe the gap between what science tells us and what we tell ourselves. Their concern is with those persistent beliefs which are not just demonstrably false but also potentially deadly, like the conviction that vaccines are hazardous. Of course, what’s hazardous is not being vaccinated; that’s why vaccines were created in the first place. “Immunization is one of the triumphs of modern medicine,” the Gormans no...



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ValueWalk

Charlie Munger's Parody

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Notes from Charlie Munger’s annual meeting at the Daily Journal are making the rounds. This parody, from a few years back, was too good not to share again. “One thing about doing something dumb is that you’re unlikely to do it again.”

]]> Get The Full Series in PDF

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Charlie Munger's Parody

A PARODY DESCRIBING THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF WANTMORE, TWEAKMORE, TOT...



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Market News

Breaking News And Best Of The Web

Courtesy of John Rubino.

US stocks finish at record high. Gold and silver at multi-week highs. Bitcoin near all-time high. Trump national security adviser scandal evolving, EPA chief controversy ramping up after email release. Debate over Putin and fake news intensifies.  

Best Of The Web

It’s bubble time! – Peak Prosperity

Dazed & confused… Treasury buying vs. asset valuations? – Econimica

...



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Digital Currencies

As Bitcoin Surges To Record High, China Prepares Its Own Digital Currency

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock (Mish)

Bitcoin hit an all-time high over $1200 today.

Traders are happy because the SEC is expected to rule on a Bitcoin ETF by March 11.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports China Is Developing its Own Digital Currency.
 

After assembling a research team in 2014, the People’s Bank of China has done trial runs of its prototype cryptocurrency. That’s taking it a step closer to becoming one of the first major central...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil; Energy stocks suggesting its about to fall, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below takes a look at the price action of Crude Oil, Energy ETF (XLE) and Oil & Gas Exploration ETF (XOP) over the past three years.

Could Energy stocks be suggesting the next big move in Crude Oil again? Which direction are they suggesting?

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

At this time the intermediate trend in Cru...



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Members' Corner

The Manchurian President

 

The Manchurian President

Courtesy of  at BillMoyers.com

As the Trump presidency unravels, unraveling the country along with it, there is no real political antecedent, no lessons from American history on which to draw and provide guidance. We are in entirely uncharted waters.

But there is an antecedent in our popular culture that provides a prism through which to view the contemporary calamity, especially the alleged collusion between Trump’s henchmen and Russian intelligence to deny Hillary Clinton the presidency. I am not the first observer who has ...



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Chart School

Good Recovery

Courtesy of Declan.

In early morning action it was a clear swing to sellers after yesterday's non-event. However, buyers came back and were able to make a good chunk of these losses into today's close.

Large Caps remained the most attractive as defensive stocks often are during times of doubt. The S&P registered higher volume accumulation as intraday action proved to be relatively tight.

The Nasdaq suffered larger losses, but there was no distribution to go with it. Technicals were relatively immune to today's action.

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 20th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

Learn option strategies and how to be the house and not the gambler. That's especially apropos since we'll be in Vegas....

Join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017            

Beginning Time:  9:30 to 10:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesars Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesars has offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night but rooms are limited at that price.

So, if you are planning on being in Vegas (Highly Recommended!), please sign up as soon as possible by sending...



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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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