Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

What happens to stocks after nothing happens to stocks?

Joshua points out that S&P action this flat, as it's been from January through July, is actually quite rare. So what's next?

What happens to stocks after nothing happens to stocks? 

Courtesy of 

My latest piece for Fortune Magazine just went live today. In it, I look at the consequences for a stock market that’s gone nowhere halfway through the year, as is the case in 2015…

You might have looked at your last brokerage statement and wondered why you’re no longer seeing the asset balance increasing like it had been. You may have taken a glance at your 401(k) the other day and wondered why it’s barely budged since Thanksgiving, excluding the contributions you’ve been making every two weeks.

You’re not crazy. The U.S. stock market has essentially gone nowhere in over 120 days.

Keep reading:

The Thing About Flat Stock Markets (Fortune)

 





GDPhursday – Nothing to Get Excited About

We're waiting for the Q2 GDP report.

I certainly don't remember any economic reports in April, May or June that make me think it's a huge winner but Q1 was -0.2% and the S&P has climbed from 2,060 on April 1st to 2,125 (3.1%) on June 23rd – completely ignoring the bad data right up until the last week, when it then dropped all the way to 2,057 on June 29th, wiping out the whole quarter of progress in just a single week.

We nailed the top with a series of posts attempting to warn people to get out, starting that Thursday (6/18), in the article titled "Thursday Thrurst, Dollar Sacrificed to Save the Markets (again)" where I said: "Now the Dollar is at 94, which is 6% lower and the S&P has managed to claw back to 2,100, which is 2.4% higher.  When you consider the fact that the S&P 500's value is calculated from a formula that is based in Dollars, we've actually lose 3.6% in real value since the April lows but shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh – don't tell that to the bulls!

We called for shorting the Futures at S&P 2,100, Russell 1,270, Oil $60.95 and Gold at $1,205 and, even more brilliantly, we called the short on China's ultra-long ETF (CHAU) and picked up the Nov $65/53 bear put spread for net $8 and that's miles in the money now, looking for our full $12 return and a 50% gain.  

I'm not supposed to refer back to posts on PSW or Seeking Alpha won't run them but they didn't run my post of June 18th because it, in turn, referred back to other posts and the funniest thing was that our post of June 20th, which was a Seeking Aplha Trade Review, was also rejected by Seeking Alpha – AND WE WROTE IT JUST FOR THEM!  You see, it sets a very bad precedent when some authors are willing to be held accountable for their picks and 99.9% are not.

On June 19th it was: "Five Time Friday: Here Come Those Tears Again" where I said "It must be the third week of the month because that's the week the S&P gets to 2,120. It has happened every month since February and the
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Peter Van Buren, Washington and Tehran Come in From the Cold

 

Tomgram: Peter Van Buren, Washington and Tehran Come in From the Cold

Intro by Tom at TomDispatch

Every election needs an organizing catchphrase and that goes doubly for the Republican presidential race, with 16 candidates having entered the fray and more on the way. I think I have the perfect one for the moment: “You’ve been Trumped!” After all, one striking thing about the Republicans, now that they’ve morphed into the party of war, is that any new candidate is obligated to out-militarize his opponents, no matter what they've claimed they’d do. This has given the old World War I trench-warfare phrase going “over the top” (that is, over the parapet to attack) new meaning.

Take for example Donald Trump. On entering the race, he promptly Trumped his competitors by claiming that he was nothing short of a military genius and swearing that, for our present war in the Middle East, he would instantly find a “General Patton” or a “General MacArthur,” that is, a leader capable of finally putting our military in the win column. But for him generals were a secondary concern because Commander-in-Chief Trump has his own unstoppable plan for destroying the Islamic State. Here’s how he put it: “Take back the oil. Once you go over and take back that oil, they have nothing. You bomb the hell out of them, and then you encircle it, and then you go in. And you let Mobil go in, and you let our great oil companies go in. Once you take that oil, they have nothing left." Encircle it, yes!

And the ante’s only going up. By now, saying that, on your first day in the Oval Office, you’ll tear up the Iran nuclear accord (should it pass Congressional scrutiny in the first place) is chump (or possibly Trump) change — and so is the idea that American ground troops must be sent into Iraq War 3.0. Candidate Rick Santorum made headlines by calling for 10,000 of them to be dispatched to Iraq and was promptly Trumped by Senator Lindsey Graham, who saw his…
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Mark Ames Interviews Yves Smith about Greece

This article will only be available to non-Pando subscribers for 48 hours.

Mark Ames of Pando Interviews Your Humble Blogger on Greece

I hope you’ll enjoy this interview with Mark Ames: Naked Capitalism: “We are in the business of making trouble.”

It’s unlocked only for the next 48 hours, so please check it out soon!

Also, there’s one small correction that didn’t get into the version that Mark put up. Hopefully it will be revised soon, but in case you see the article before Mark makes the update, I make a statement about “negative interest rates” that should read “negative real interest rates”.

****

Excerpt:

This year’s political drama in Greece stands out as perhaps the least-understood, worst-reported major story of 2015.

Greece is mired in debt, and locked into the Euro monetary system, which means Greece’s political destiny is in the hands of the European Central Bank, the IMF and the powerful nations that dominate the Eurozone, Germany and France —and not in the hands of Greece’s “demos,” its voting public.

The implications of Greece’s political-financial struggles are huge—we could be seeing the beginning of the end of not only the Euro monetary union, but also the half-baked EU political union as well. We could also see a more globalized unraveling, but thanks to the financial world’s intentionally shady machinations, we won’t know until we know. Greece is also a major ideological battleground between a re-emerging and more radicalized western Left—Syriza—and entrenched neoliberalism, which has dominated the political ecosystem for the past few decades. The outcome could affect the fate of a lot of fledgling neo-leftist politics across the globe, and in the West in particular.

Finance stories are always complicated and by design murky—add in the layers of EU politics, and you have a story that can only be told by someone with deep finance knowledge, a grasp of the larger political and cultural inputs, and the rare ability to translate it all into vivid, sharp-tongued, and aggressively readable prose.

Which is why you should be following Yves Smith great


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The World Gets Serious About Climate Change

Courtesy of 

Jeremy Grantham’s latest note for GMO tackles some of his pet issues – from commodity demand to climate change – and the conclusions he reaches are both dour and slightly hopeful at the same time. For the uninitiated, Grantham is the real deal on these topics, having gotten himself arrested at a Keystone XL pipeline protest a couple of years back.

The bad news is that we’re breaking records for climate-related abnormalities around the world. The good news, he notes, is that there has been a real evolution in terms of the way world leaders are looking at the issue…

Both the actual climate and the associated politics seem to be changing more rapidly these days, with the seriousness of the situation becoming better appreciated. Visible changes in the climate have also been accelerating, with many more records than normal of droughts, floods, and, most particularly, heat. Last year was the hottest year ever recorded, and this year, helped by an El Niño, has gotten off to a dreadful start. January was the second hottest January ever. February and March were outright records. April was in third place, but both May and June were back in first place. This consistency with volatile climate is unusual and ominous. If kept up, 2015 will be the hottest by a lot. Angela Merkel, a chemist by University training, arm-twisted the G7 countries, especially Japan and the recently rogue Canada, into a statement committing their countries to decarbonizing their economies completely by 2100 and making some increased effort by 2050, a respectable improvement but still very insufficient for the long term. It was probably the first time for several decades, by the way, that it was reasonably clear that someone other than a U.S. President was the natural leader: at least on some issues.

Pope Francis weighed in with a brave encyclical, which was bound to cause trouble with his flock, making the clear case that it is a Catholic’s duty to help protect our home planet and that manmade climate change from excessive burning of CO2-producing fossil fuels is an urgent problem. He was advised


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Wednesday – Shanghai Surprise (Manipulation) Ahead of the Fed

Should we laugh or cry?

After dropping 100 points (2.7%) after lunch, the Shanghai Composite jammed up 175 points (5%) into the close and, combined with the pre-market pump that gave them a good open, resulted in a 3.4% gain on the day that NO ONE in the MSM seems to think is in the least bit strange.  

Yesterday I said: "Everything you used to laugh about regarding Russia's Pravda and Izvestia is EXACTLY what is now happening to the US media except, rather than government control – it's controlled by corporations, who determine what information YOU will be given each day." and Hanno on Seeking Alpha asked me what I meant by "YOU" and I said I mean non-PSW Members (the target audience for the morning post, the rest of our day is private) because "WE" at PSW learn to be very critical of the Mainstream Corporate Media.  As one of our Members said recently:

Subscribing to Phil’s site is like the Matrix – taking the red pill:

"You take the blue pill – the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill – you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes."

You start to become educated at a different level – and the main stream media has diverged to such a degree that a normal conversation with friends that only casually follow the market is no longer possible. They’re still taking the blue pill – the banks, the fed, the govt. – all have put them to sleep.

It's a very appropriate conversation for what is to be a blue pill day, when the Fed is scheduled to release their statement (2pm) in which they will change a dozen words from the last statement and the Media will act like another tablet has been delivered from Mount Siniai when really (as is very apparent in the minutes) it's just a
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Testy Tuesday – Bouncing Back to Bull?

Wheeee, what a ride!  

Already this morning, EU markets have taken back almost all of yesterday's 1.5% drop as a rash of M&A announcements spur bargain-hunters in various sectors.  M&A announcements are a particularly desperate form of market manipulation on the part of the Banksters as these deals take months to put together and their announcements are usually timed with great care.

In this case, a group of deals have been rushed forward to give the sheeple the impression that the markets are undervalued but it's just the announcements of pending deals that have been accelerated to give you the impression that we're at some sort of bottom so, like the poor Chinese Retailers who ran back into the markets the past two weeks, you can take more shares off the hands of Banksters who failed to sell ahead of the drop and need another crack at it.  

The banks don't even care if they are screwing their own clients – they have hundreds of Billions at play in the markets and if rushing a deal gives them a 1% bounce for a couple of Billion, what do they care about the effect on their $100M fee (negligible anyway).  They certainly don't care what they are doing to the retail buyers – check out this typical story of how they are financially raping the farmers in China:

Oops, sorry, you can't check it out, it's been redacted on Bloomberg already (I was surprised they showed it in the first place).  This morning a video report on China followed a farmer who had about $200,000 in his account and was playing the market and, due to relentless Government promotions and the urging of his broker, he accepted a $1M margin account and continued buying stocks to record levels.  The bubble burst and he lost not only his whole $200,000 but now owes $200,000 to the broker.

He then takes a day's trip to Beijing to complain to the Government, in the naive belief that they will fix things for him because it was the Government's propaganda that got him to invest in the first place.  Of course, no one will even see him about his problem and he is forced to take the long ride home, where


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What is the Message of the Market?

 

What is the Message of the Market?

Courtesy of Jeff Miller, Dash of Insight's Weighing the Week Ahead

As I have noted for the last two weeks, this earnings season carries a special significance. It provides an alternative to the official data on the economy. After a bad week for stocks, the punditry will be asking:

What is the message of the market?

Prior Theme Recap

In my last WTWA [Weighing the Week Ahead], I predicted that attention to earnings reports would once again dominate the news. This was an accurate call. Earnings stories, both good and bad, were daily highlights. Our featured chart on dollar weakness as more important than geopolitics was especially accurate. More on earnings in the account of the week below.

We would all like to know the direction of the market in advance. Good luck with that! Second best is planning what to look for and how to react. That is the purpose of considering possible themes for the week ahead. You can try it at home.

This Week’s Theme

Earnings season has developed a bipolar theme: Strength in some popular momentum names and weakness in stocks sensitive to the dollar. The market has provided a daily verdict on earnings reports. For many there is also an important economic message. Observers are asking:

What is the message of the market?

…and for some… Will the Fed be listening?

The Viewpoints

The earnings message draws several different viewpoints, including some noted last week.

  • A weak economy has finally taken a toll on corporate profits, especially in some sectors.
  • Stock market leadership has narrowed dramatically. Frank Zorilla illustrates with the chart below. He is open-minded about how this divergence could resolve, including a possible broad rally.

RUT3

Stockbee has a very similar take on this important theme, including the potential for a rally.

MM

  • The strong dollar has hurt exports and profit margins of many large companies. It is showing up dramatically in energy stocks.
  • Commodity price declines have accompanied the earnings


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Sector Detector: Lackluster earnings reports put eager bulls back into waiting mode

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Corporate earnings reports have been mixed at best, interspersed with the occasional spectacular report — primarily from mega-caps like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), or Amazon (AMZN). Some of the bulls have taken their chips off the table until after Labor Day, while others have merely scaled back to scalping some trades. Either way, stocks appear destined to thrash about for the rest of the summer.

Market overview:

Earnings season is off and running, and yes, some of the reports have been startlingly strong. Beyond the blowout numbers from mega-caps like Google, Facebook, and Amazon, we have heard the occasional terrific report from firms like Sabrient-favorite Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX). On the flip side, IBM (IBM), United Technologies (UTX) and Verizon (VZ) have disappointed. In any case, leadership has been narrowing, and market breadth is about the worst in the past 15 years.

Healthcare has been by far the best performing sector again this year, but Financials are starting to perk up. And looking forward, there is optimism that banks will do well in an environment of rising rates and a steepening yield curve.

Of course, given the strength of the US dollar, commodities across the board are in glut mode, with much weeping and gnashing of teeth in the Energy and Basic Materials sectors. Nevertheless, refiners of petroleum products are doing quite well, thank you, and enjoying strong operating margins. The “crack spread,” i.e., the difference between the cost paid for crude oil versus the price received for refined product has been very attractive. Sabrient favorites in the space include Tesoro (TSO), Valero Energy (VLO), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC).

Other than earnings, the other big news story is China’s stock market, which took…
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Europe: Running on Borrowed Time

 

Thoughts from the Frontline: Europe: Running on Borrowed Time

By John Mauldin

“I am sure the euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created.”

– Romano Prodi, EU Commission president, December 2001

Prodi and the other leaders who forged the euro knew what they were doing. They knew a crisis would develop, as Milton Friedman and many others had predicted. It is not conceivable that these very astute men didn’t realize that creating a monetary union without a fiscal union would bring about an existential crisis. They accepted that eventuality as the price of European unity. But now the payment is coming due, and it is far larger than they probably anticipated.

Time, as the old saying goes, is money. There are lots of ways that equation can work out. We had an interesting example last week. Europe and the eurozone pulled back from the brink by once again figuring out how to postpone the inevitable moment when all and sundry will have to recognize that Greece cannot pay the debt that it owes. In essence they have borrowed time by allowing Greece to borrow more money. Money, I should add, that, like all the other Greek debt, will not be repaid.

I’ve probably got some 40 articles and 100 pages of commentary on Greece and the eurozone from all sides of the political spectrum in my research stack, and it would be very easy to make this a long letter. But it’s a pleasant summer weekend, and I’m in the mood to write a shorter letter, for which many of my readers may be grateful. Rather than wander deep into the weeds looking at financial indications, however, we are going to explore what I think is a very significant nonfinancial factor that will impact the future of Europe. If it was just money, then Prodi would be right – they could just create new economic policy instruments, whatever the heck those might be. But what we’ve been seeing…
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ValueWalk

Scott Bessent, Soros' CIO, Leaving To Launch Own Hedge Fund

By Clayton Browne. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Scott Bessent, who has been George Soros Chief Investment Officer for the last four years and has a long working relationship with the legendary progressive billionaire, plans to depart from the Soros family firm at year end to launch his own hedge-fund firm.

Based on a company memo distributed on Tuesday to employees of Soros Fund Management, Bessent is leaving to establish Key Square Group with a $2 billion investment from Soros.

More on George Soros and Scott Bessent

In the memo, Robert Soros, the deputy chairman of the $30 billion Soros family office, provided an explanation for why Bessent was moving on.

He commented: &#...



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Zero Hedge

Chart Of The Day - Americans Are Not Happy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Readers of this site don’t need me to tell you, but the following statistics from the Wall Street Journal prove that despite record stock prices and non-stop propaganda, fewer and fewer people are believing the hype.

We learn that:

On a benchmark measure of Americans’ unease, 65% of those surveyed said the country is on the wrong track. That is the highest level of unease since November 2014, and nears the levels seen at other historical moment...



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Phil's Favorites

Tuesday Humor: When Social Media Gets Real

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In a period when social media stars are getting clobbered, we thought this quite appropriate...

"I haven't got a computer, but I was told abouy Facebook and Twitter and am trying to make friends in the real world applying the same principles..."

Source: @_youhadonejob

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Apple breaking short-term support as Nasdaq at 2000 highs

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The left chart looks at the Nasdaq Composite index over the past 20-years.

Currently the index is back at the same price as it was back at the Dot Com highs. With the trend being up (above support and moving averages) the NAS, is attempting a “continuation of trend breakout” at this time. Should the index achieve a breakout above the 2000 levels, it would be viewed as a bullish continuation event.

The right chart looks at Apple over the past 5-years. For the past 6-months, Apple has struggled to get above the $133 level. From a very short-term perspective a short-term support line could be giving way, of a bearish r...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oils Drop Below $50 May Be Just the Start as Demand Swoons (Bloomberg)

Oil has fallen to a six-month low, and hopes of a quick rebound are fading as demand heads into an autumn swoon.

It is getting ugly in Canada (Business Insider)

“It’s an election about who will protect our economy in a period of ongoing global instability,” Stephen Harper, Prime Minister of Canada, announced on Sunday as he officially kicked off the campaign for the federal elections on October 19. He’d just asked Governor Gen...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.



Date Found: Friday, 03 July 2015, 07:15:03 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: Alasdair Macleod views on Greece and China. Excellent! youtu.be/62lucEzzZMk



Date Found: Tuesday, 07 July 2015, 02:39:22 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: POST GREECE 'NO' vote some bonds are being re priced for true risk. Massive ouch!



Date Found: Tuesday, 07 July 2015, 07:55:35 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 3rd, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Lackluster earnings reports put eager bulls back into waiting mode

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Corporate earnings reports have been mixed at best, interspersed with the occasional spectacular report -- primarily from mega-caps like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), or Amazon (AMZN). Some of the bul...



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Digital Currencies

Gold Spikes Back Above $1100, Bitcoin Jumps

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Gold is jumping after the overnight double flash-crash...testing back towards $1100...

Bitcoin is back up to pre-"Greece is Fixed" levels...

Charts: Bloomberg and Bitcoinwisdom

...

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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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