Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Just own the damn robots.

 

Just own the damn robots.

Courtesy of 

…five ranks of ten machines each, swept their tools in unison across steel bars, kicked out finished shafts onto continuous belts…

Paul unlocked the box containing the tape recording that controlled them all. The tape was a small loop that fed continuously between magnetic pickups. On it were recorded the movements of a master machinist turning out a shaft for a fractional horsepower motor. He’d been in on the making of the tape, the master from which this one had been made.

He had been sent to one of the machine shops to make the recording. The foreman had pointed out the best man – what was his name? – and, joking with the puzzled machinist, had been hooked up to the recording apparatus. Hertz! That had been the machinist’s name – Rudy Hertz, an old timer, who had been about ready to retire.

And here, now, this little loop in the box before Paul, here was Rudy as Rudy had been to his machine that afternoon – Rudy, the turner-on of power, the setter of speeds, the controller of the cutting tool. This was the essence of Rudy as far as his machine was concerned.

Now, by switching in lathes on a master panel and feeding them signals from the tape, Paul could make the essence of Rudy Hertz produce one, ten, a hundred, or a thousand of the shafts.

from Player Piano by Kurt Vonnegut

***

There’s something insidious going on in the psyche of investors that deserves a lot of the credit for today’s bull market, and almost no one is talking about it. But I will.

The first American retirement system – available only for gun fighters – a colonist in Massachusetts picks up his arms and goes off to defend his settlement against the Indians. They chop off his arm, rendering him unable to participate in the only form of labor that existed in those days (manual). He can’t build shelters anymore, raise animals or


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Black Monday 30th Anniversary – Those Who Forget History…

It was 30 years ago today.

Well not today, it was the 19th but that's the closest Monday.  Anyway, it was a Monday (a day like any other day) when the Dow fell 22.6% in a single day.  That was only 508 points at the time (what inflation?) and it dropped to from 2,246 to 1,738.  That happened pretty close to the anniversary of the original Black Monday of October 28th, 1929, which kicked off the great market crash and the Great Depression.

I don't know if this time is different but it's certainly not the same.  The main difference here is that our market highs are not being caused by random market mania but by a fairly rational response to low interest rates and Trillions of Dollars worth of FREE MONEY being printed up and handed out to the Top 1% (Corporate Citizens included) in exchange for promising to trickle down on the poor – something, in fact, that the President himself supposedly was caught doing on a Russian video tape…

Trump, in fact, has more and more tied the "success" of his Presidency with the performance of the market, so there's another positive factor when the White House wakes up every day and says "How can we score more points on the Dow?"  "It would be really nice if the Fake News Media would report the virtually unprecedented stock market growth since the election," Trump tweeted Wednesday. It's a much different tone than a year ago, when Trump warned America to beware of a "big fat bubble" in stocks.  That was 4,000 Dow points ago!   Though very impressive, the "Trump Rally" ranks 7th in Presidential rallies, only slightly ahead of Obama and miles behinkd Clinton and Roosevelt.

Only about half of America has any money at all in the stock market (52% of Americans, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve, which does a comprehensive survey of everyone who has money in brokerage accounts, mutual funds, 401(k) plans, pensions, etc.).  Most people with incomes below about $50,000 don't have money in stocks. They benefit little, if at all, from the market surge.

More apropos of comparison for Trump is Herbert Hoover, who, like Trump, famously promised
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Social Security Means-Testing Looms: “It’s Impossible Without A 50% Income Tax Hike”

Courtesy of John Mauldin, MauldinEconomics.com

The projected total US debt will be $30 trillion within 10 years, using the CBO’s own numbers. But the CBO also makes the rosy assumptions that there will be no recessions and that GDP will grow at a 4% nominal rate.

Now, that’s possible; I'm inclined to haircut it a bit.

If you asked me to bet the “over/under” on the debt in 2027, I would bet the over at $35 trillion.

After the next recession the deficit will be $30 trillion within 4–5 years and then grow from there at a rate of anywhere from $1.5 to $2 trillion per year (I covered my team’s calculations in this letter).

Is it any wonder why I’m so concerned about pensions?

Social Security Is Impossible Under This Deficit

Note: That is not the CBO’s projected debt. It does not take into account the off-budget deficit that still ends up having to be borrowed. Last year the deficit was well over $1 trillion—but we were told it was in the neighborhood of $600 billion.

If any normal company tried to use accounting like the US Congress does, the SEC would rightly declare it fraudulent and shut it down immediately.

Here’s a chart from the Treasury’s annual financial report, projecting government receipts and spending:

Note that this chart expresses the various items as percentages of GDP, not dollars. So the relatively flat spending categories simply mean they are forecasted to grow in line with the economy, or just a little faster.

But the space representing net interest grows much faster than GDP does – fast enough to make total federal spending add up to one-third of GDP by 2090.

Obviously, this chart is based on all kinds of assumptions, and reality will be far different. I doubt we will make it to 2090 (or even 2050) without at least one global depression or other calamity that radically resets all the assumptions.

Beneficial changes are also possible – biotech breakthroughs that reduce healthcare expenditures, for instance.

Still, looking at the demographic reality of longer lifespans and lower birthrates, it’s hard to believe Social Security can


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The Chinese Form of Innovation

 

The Chinese Form of Innovation

By L2inc.

Scott Galloway discusses China's digital and economic momentum with NYU professor Clay Shirky, author of Little Rice: Smartphones, Xiaomi, and the Chinese Dream.

 

Read also: In China, A Cashless Trend Is Taking Hold With Mobile Payments





Robocops Are Coming To London

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

All of Elon Musk’s worst fears are slowly becoming reality.

The Telegraph reports that robocop-type policing techniques are set to replace beat cops within a decade as the use of artificial intelligence becomes more widespread in investigating crimes.

Thames Valley Police said AI computers – which mimic humans by making decisions themselves – could be used to answer 999 calls, detect crimes and identify offenders.

But in one chilling detail that will hopefully be resolved within the next decade or so before robocops become a routine presence in London’s streets, the TVP warned of “bias” in the AI software and a concern that AI computers “might be unable to reason with a human”.

We don’t find further clues about the subject of these biases until much later in the story, when the leader of a civil liberties group – which have been predictably alarmed by plans to automate police forces – pointed to a study showing the machine’s algorithms have shown racial biases, according to the Telegraph.

Civil liberties groups were alarmed by the plans. David Green, the director of the Civitas thinktank, warned that the AI computers could unfairly target ethnic minority groups.

He said: “Robocop policing has now arrived in England. This Orwellian reliance on automated decisions has been found to undermine the most basic precepts of the justice system when it has been tried in America.

“An experiment in Fort Lauderdale, for example, found that the algorithm reflected human prejudices, including racial bias.”

However, the news comes as ministers prepare to publish the first ever review into how AI will change Britain over the coming decades. AI is already used by Scotland Yard to recognise faces at London’s Notting Hill Carnival. Durham Constabulary is also planning to use AI for deciding whether to keep suspects in custody.

In a submission to a Parliamentary inquiry into the Implications of Artificial Intelligence, Thames Valley said there are “even at the lowest level AI could perform many of the process driven tasks that take place in the police”.

AI could be used to assist “investigations by ‘joining the dots’ in police databases,


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Why Trump’s executive order may compound the health insurance industry’s problems

 

Why Trump's executive order may compound the health insurance industry's problems

Courtesy of J.B. SilversCase Western Reserve University

File 20171012 31408 1p5wyhi.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Unraveling Obamacare will be easier than fixing the nation’s insurance problems. AP Photo/Evan Vucci

President Donald Trump has issued the first of what promises to be a series of health insurance executive orders aimed at dismantling the Affordable Care Act.

It instructs the government to essentially exempt small businesses and potentially individuals from some of the rules underpinning the landmark legislation known as “Obamacare,” following the GOP’s failure to get Congress to approve a plan to repeal and replace it.

These steps would free more employers to access bare-bones and short-term health insurance coverage and join together to bargain with insurers. It’s not clear how this order will change the U.S. health insurance market. But as a health finance professor and the former CEO of an insurance company, I’m confident it is more likely to compound many of Obamacare’s problems than to fix them.

The White House plan could expand health insurance choices – and raise costs for people with preexisting conditions. AP Photo/Alan Diaz

Designed this way

To be sure, the Affordable Care Act has problems. For example, premiums have continued to rise since the Affordable Care Act’s enactment – albeit at a moderate pace for insurance obtained through employment.

In particular, many smaller employers have seen their costs rise dramatically since insurers were forced to price their plans based on the average of all claims in the small group market rather than the experience of each firm.

But there is a reason why Obamacare was designed this way. Employers with older and less healthy workers were almost shut out of the insurance market because insurers deemed them so costly to cover and wanted to avoid the risk. Companies with younger and healthier workers had a good deal previously, but many other employers did not.

The Affordable Care Act was supposed to solve this problem by lumping everyone together to even out rates. Making rates more reasonable for…
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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 10-12-17

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

Major Topics:

00:01:41 S&P 500
00:02:45 Portfolio Review
00:08:01 Oil
00:11:48 CM Charts
00:16:47 CM – Long Term Portfolio
00:23:21 VZ Charts
00:24:54 GE
00:30:17 SVXY
00:35:30 VIX
00:40:50 VXX Trade Ideas
00:43:29 RH – Trade Review
00:45:43 SVU – Trade Review
00:49:20 TSLA – Trade Review
00:53:26 CDE, CHK – Trade Review
00:56:50 GE – Trade Review
00:58:19 F – Trade Review
01:00:20 GNC – Trade Review
01:03:56 IMAX – Trade Review
01:05:06 ABX, EWZ – Trade Review
01:12:55 GOOGL
01:19:28 More Trade Ideas
01:23:05 2017 Watch List

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!

 





Fabulous Friday – Markets at (yawn) All-Time Highs

Another day, another high.

We may be too bearish into the weekend now so we'll have to play an upside hedge (in addition to RSX, which has also popped since our pick) and we'll look for something during today's Live Member Chat Room.  Today's run-up may be nothing but we're breaking over technical levels that certainly LOOK bullish enough – especially on the Russell, where we've been shorting

This morning's rally is based on Chinese Import Data, which is up 19% from last year, which sounds very impressive until you realize that the Dollar was 10% higher vs the Renimbi last year, so half of that growth is currency-related – assuming the data is accurate in the first place – which is always a question with Chinese data.

Also, think of how many parts had to be imported to be turned into new IPhones last quarter – that too bumps up the import numbers.  It's not the Chinese consumers that are buying more stuff, it's the Apple assemblers.  China is also building things with Iron Ore Imports up 10.5% (more in-line with the actual growth) and Iron Ore prices have jumped up 10.5% (what inflation) in September alone, which is good for BHP Billiton (BPH), Rio Tinto (RIO)  and Vale SA (VALE) and VALE makes a nice, bullish trade as it's still under $10/share with almost $1/share in earnings for a p/e of about 10.  As a bullish economic trade we can:

  • Sell 10 VALE 2019 $10 puts for $1.80 ($1,800) 
  • Buy 15 VALE 2019 $7 calls for $3.20 ($4,800) 
  • Sell 15 VALE 2019 $12 calls for 0.85 ($1,275)

That's net $1,725 on the $7,500 spread so the upside potential is $5,775 (334%) if VALE is up 20% by Jan, 2019.  The downside risk is owning 1,000 shares of VALE at $10 plus the potential loss of $1,725 so net $11.75 makes this an aggressive play but anything over $10 means we do not get assigned the short puts and we're already $4,500 in the money to start the trade – that's fun!  

It's a sideways play on China and we may have to consider China's ETF (FXI) for one of our longs though China Mobile (CHL) is…
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Phil on Trade Talks

 





Thursday Follies – Post Fed Depression

Now what?

What can we do now to boost the markets.  We got the Fed minutes yesterday afternoon and there were no new revelations there to justify another 18 consecutive days of new highs.  Sure it's being spun that way but that's the same way these depraved Financial Networks spin every rally – at the behest of their mainly-broker sponsors.

Not that the financial press is any better – even as an independent who makes his money selling subscriptions, rather than ads, I still find that we get far less subscribers when we are cautious or negative on the market than positive so, even if you think the Networks are not being specifically paid to mislead you – you can be sure they are doing it for the ratings!  

The closer you get to a bubble top, the harder it is to get fresh money off the sidelines and the harder the market cheerleaders have to cheer to get you to put your money into the positions the sponsors are trying to wriggle out of.  Meanwhile, the sponsors play their own games – sending their analysts out to upgrade key stocks that boost the sectors they are trying to unwind.  As we pointed out yesterday – that's why you see all these upgrades on Tesla – the same week Musk is accused of fraudulent forecasting.  That's NOT going away – but their profits are! 

Since we first tested S&P 2,500 in July, I have urged caution at these levels and now we're at 2,550 and it doesn't make me feel better.  Though it's the opposite, it reminds me of what Jim Cramer said to his viewers on October 31st, 2007 (5:20 in the video):

 

"You should be buying things and accept that they're over-valued but accept that they are going to keep going higher – I know that sounds irresponsible – but that's how you're going to make the money. " – Cramer, 10/31/2007 – Dow 13,930 

"That's why the market just won't quit, no matter how poorly actual companies are doing." – Cramer, 2/1/2008 – Dow 12,743

"Very simply, I believe that it's time to BUYBUYBUY." –


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Phil's Favorites

Will the Supremes Save Democracy From Minority Rule?

 

Will the Supremes Save Democracy From Minority Rule?

Courtesy of  and

This post first appeared on BillMoyers.com.

The Supreme Court now has the power to put a decisive end to extreme gerrymandering — if Justice Anthony Kennedy and the four liberal-leaning justices can craft a clear and manageable standard to identify when partisan mapmakers go too far.

But what if it doesn't? What happens if Kennedy sides with the conservative justices, who in the oral arguments for ...



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Zero Hedge

One River CIO "We're Willing Participants In Our Own Demise"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With the world's focus falling on Beijing this week, where president Xi Jinping give a glowing account of China's future during the 19th Party Congress, boasting that “the banner of scientific socialism with Chinese characteristics is now flying high and proud for all to see," not all are impressed by China's vision of the world in which China sees itself as increasingly taking over from the US as the world's superpower. And it's not just stories about China's neverending behind the scenes bailouts of anything that may telegraph a hard landing for...



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ValueWalk

Moody's Says Hartford Could Default As Early As November

By Gary St. Fleur. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The historic headquarters of insurance giants like Aetna, and Cigna, Hartford Connecticut now faces a potential financial catastrophe.

On Thursday, October 19, it was announce that the likelihood of Hartford Connecticut, to meet its obligations for the month grows continually bleak. Moody’s has produced a press release stating their position that Hartford Connecticut is likely to default by month’s end.

]]> Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues

...

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Digital Currencies

An Evening in Wonderland

 

An Evening in Wonderland

Courtesy of 

 

 

You walk halfway across Rivington Street and in the middle of the block there’s an alley leading north, and then, inexplicably, it curves northwest. It’s remarkable in that on the Isle of Manhattan there aren’t any alleys. And this one is whimsical. Lights are strung overhead and artwork decorates the sides of the buildings as you make your way through. And then, at the end of Freemans Alley, you come to a tucked away restaurant in the back corner. It’s called Freemans (what else?).

If the setting for last night&rs...



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Chart School

Gold Cycle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Why has gold not fallen below $1000 (well so far), what is the golden canary telling us?

Previous Posts:
SP500 Kitchin Cycle says trouble brewing - Update
SP500 How much higher ?

In short, the old heads out there know there is a ying for a yang! Currently the SP500 screaming higher, massive debt, low very !VIX. But as well all know this wont last forever, and the flip side could be very scary. Hence the hedge into metals, and building of the 4.5 year gold base, and as a ...

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Insider Scoop

There Could Be 109% Upside In uniQure As Company Advances Gene Therapy Into Clinical Trials

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related QURE 32 Stocks Moving In Friday's Mid-Day Session Wall Street's M&A Chatter From October 19: Uniqure, Ulta, Sally Beauty,...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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Biotech

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Courtesy of Sally Ferguson, CQUniversity Australia

Today, the “beautiful mechanism” of the body clock, and the group of cells in our brain where it all happens, have shot to prominence. The 2017 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Jeffrey C. Hall, Michael Rosbash and Michael W. Young for their work on describing the molecular cogs and wheels inside our biological clock.

In the 18th century an astronomer by the name of Jean Jacques d'Ortuous de Ma...



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Members' Corner

Day of Last Dances

News today has been relentlessly terrible. A horrific mass murder happened last night in Las Vegas. (Our politician's abject failure to address gun control is beyond sickening.) And today, reports that Tom Petty died of a heart attack, followed by reports that Tom Petty is not dead, and now reports confirming that Tom Petty has passed away. 

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>