Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Yesterday’s Trade Ideas Are Up $18,400 – Today it’s 3% Index Gains or Bust!

We need 3% gains today.  

That's right, after dropping 15% our 5% Rule™ says a weak bounce should be 20% of the drop and that's a 3% bounce off yesterday's close just to keep us a tiny bit bullish and, thanks to China's expected market save (more on that later), we're getting it pre-market.  We already played for these bounces, of course – as I noted in yesterday's morning post, we wanted to go long in the Futures at:

  • Dow 15,840 (/YM), now 16,320 - up $2,400 per contact 
  • S&P 1,850 (/ES), now 1,946 - up $4,800 per contract 
  • Nasdaq 4,000 (/NQ), now 4,200 - up $4,000 per contract 
  • Russell 1,080 (/TF), now 1,152 - up $7,200 per contract  

That's $18,400 (per contract) in gains from our suggestions in yesterday's morning post.  Whatever you do DO NOT SUBSCRIBE HERE or you will get useful information like that sent to you pre-market every day.  Of course, those gains are nothing compared to the shorts we abandoned at the same levels from last week's Live Trading Webinar, where we featured a short on the Dow Futures at 17,477 which were up $8,185 per contract at our target low of 15,840.

I was the first person to hash-tag #BlackMonday (which trended), tweeting it out at 5:05 am, long before the Futures fell off a cliff.  We expected the sell-off due to lack of China intervention and, by the time I was writing the 8:20 post, we did a very good job of calling the bottoms but, at 9:42, in our Live Member Chat Room, I said:

I think this is almost a flash-crash.  Someone (thing) is selling with abandon.  I think since we wanted to grab a long, we should and I nominate Dow at 15,600, which is more than 10% down for at least a bounce and the DIA Sept $155s at $6.75 were $13 on Friday and I like them for a gamble with the intention of selling the $159s for $6 on a bounce (now $5.20) so 20 of those for the 5% Portfolio with a stop at $6 or if the Dow can't hold 15,600. 


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The Art of Catching Falling Knives

[The art of catching a falling knife should be practiced with a helmet and very thick gloves!]

The Art of Catching Falling Knives

Courtesy of Wade of Investing Caffeine

Knife Falling FreeImages

“In the middle of every difficulty lies an opportunity.”  ~Albert Einstein

It was a painful week for bullish investors in the stock market as evidenced by the -1,018 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, equivalent to approximately a -6% decline. The S&P 500 index did not fare any better, and the loss for the tech-heavy NASDAQ index was down closer to -7% for the week.

The media is attributing much of the short-term weakness to a triple Chinese whammy of factors: 1) Currency devaluation of the Yuan; 2) Weaker Chinese manufacturing data registering in at the lowest level in over six years; and 3) A collapsing Chinese stock market.

As the second largest economy on the planet, developments in China should not be ignored, however these dynamics should be put in the proper context. With respect to China’s currency devaluation, Scott Grannis at Calafia Beach Pundit puts the foreign exchange developments in proper perspective. If you consider the devaluation of the Yuan by -4%, this change only reverses a small fraction of the Chinese currency appreciation that has taken place over the last decade (see chart below). Grannis rightfully points out the -25% collapse in the value of the euro relative to the U.S. dollar is much more significant than the minor move in the Yuan.  Moreover, although the move by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) makes America’s exports to China less cost competitive, this move by Chinese bankers is designed to address exactly what investors are majorly concern about – slowing growth in Asia.

Yuan vs Dollar 2015

Although the weak Chinese manufacturing data is disconcerting, this data is nothing new – the same manufacturing data has been very choppy over the last four years. On the last China issue relating to its stock market, investors should be reminded that despite the massive decline in the Shanghai Composite, the index is still up by more than +50% versus a year ago (see chart below)

Shanghai Composite 8-2015

Fear the Falling Knife?

Given the fresh carnage in the U.S. and…
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Sector Detector: Finally, market capitulation gives bulls a real test of conviction, plus perhaps a buying opportunity

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

The dark veil around China is creating a little too much uncertainty for investors, with the usual fear mongers piling on and sending the vast buy-the-dip crowd running for the sidelines until the smoke clears. Furthermore, Sabrient’s fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings have been flashing near-term defensive signals. The end result is a long overdue capitulation event that has left no market segment unscathed in its mass carnage. The historically long technical consolidation finally came to the point of having to break one way or the other, and it decided to break hard to the downside, actually testing the lows from last October! Many had predicted that the longer we go without a meaningful pullback, the harder and scarier it would be when it finally broke down. In addition, program trading kicked in to deleverage positions, with preset algorithms exacerbating the selling and volatility.

Actually, there are four main issues creating uncertainty for investors: China’s true growth outlook, commodity prices, the Federal Reserve’s plan for rate hikes, and the upcoming corporate earnings season. But all is not lost, and a capitulation event like this also provides a healthy cleansing, providing the opportunity for capital to transfer from weak to strong hands, and now there is suddenly a lot of room to the upside — if bulls can keep their composure and regain their conviction.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

With signs of slowing growth reducing demand from China, coupled with further devaluation of the yuan, other exporting nations are racing to debase their currencies in order to stay competitive. But as I discussed last week, the devaluation of the yuan (which is pegged to the dollar and thus must manually adjust the valuation) pales in…
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Black Monday for the Markets – China Fails to Hold the Line

People are starting to FREAK OUT!  

It's been so long since we've had a good old-fashioned market correction that many "investors" think the World is ending and are selling everything that isn't nailed down.  Of course, in some cases they are right – especially if they are the kind of momentum chasers who piled into Netflix (NFLX) at over 250 times earnings or Tesla (TSLA) about the same or Amazon (AMZN) at 100 time earnings as they looked to carnival barkers like Cramer and Co. to hit the noisemakers and tell them how wise they were for following all the lemmings off a cliff.  

Skip to the last four minutes of this interview from last Wednesday Morning, where I explain why Netflix was our top choice for a short, now 25% ago and I also called for a 10% market correction, now (including the morning's futures) 8% ago.  That morning, we were also shorting the Dow Futures (/YM), which were at 17,000, Russell Futures (/TF) at 1,205 and Nasdaq Futures (/TF) at 4,525 using the strategies we had discussed at the end of July in: "Using Stock Futures to Hedge Against Market Corrections."

Aside from the Dow contracts now up $5,500 at 15,900, Russell contracts gaining $8,500 at 1,120 and Nasdaq Futures gaining $10,500 at 4,000, we also suggested bullish play on gold that has already jumped 30% in two weeks.  Even in this downturn, I was able to point out to our Members early this morning that there was a good entry on Gasoline Futures at $1.33 on the /RBV5 contracts (Sept) and we're already back at $1.345 for a $650 per contract gain.

As noted in "Using Futures..", there are ALWAYS opportunities to pick up nice gains in the Futures market, no matter which way things are going.  I also sent out an alert to our Members with Technical Analysis of the current market conditions and you can see it on Twitter (our 5:05 am tweet) if you'd like – as I won't rehash it here other than to say our expected 10% correction is right on track. 

Looking over at our Big Chart, 1,942.50 is where we think the S&P will settle out but
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Futures Stumble Out Of The Gate, Slide 0.6% On Lack Of Chinese RRR Cut: What Happens Next?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

On Friday, ahead of the closing stock rout, we forecast that the biggest risk for anyone staying long over the weekend was a disappointment out of China, where the sellside had gotten so excited that a 50-100bps RRR cut was imminent, that the lack of one would surely send futures sliding.

Sure enough, as we noted earlier today, much to everyone's surprise and disappointment, the PBOC did nothing (for reasons we speculated upon earlier).

Which bring us to this evening's S&P futures, which opened for trading minutes ago, and as expected gapped by over 0.6% after the Chinese disappointment, down 19 points to 1952 and looking quite heavy as several key support level as in the crosshairs.

The key carry driver for all US equity action, the USDJPY, is not looking too healthy either and just hit its lowest level since July 8 as the Yen is soaring on carry trade unwinds:

To be sure, the real action in tonight's illiquid market will not be in US futures, at least not until Europe opens, but in China, where it will be up to the "National Team" to prevent a massive rout now that the PBOC has told stocks they are on their own for the time being..

Also keep an eye on crude: after an initial gap lower the black gold is trying to stabilize the drop. Perhaps it is waiting for Gartman to confirm he is still long before crashing below $40.

So what happens next? It's clearly anyone's guess so here courtesy of Bloomberg is a selection of quite a few guesses and what some pundits, many of whom predicted smooth sailing unttil year end, are suddenly and very dramatically changing their tune.

  • “It’s going to be pretty deep. … We’re in the camp that this is not yet a big move. It’s scary, and those last two day trends look


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Low Rates, Low Inventory, and Raging Inflation Create The Fed’s No Win Housing Situation

 

Low Rates, Low Inventory, and Raging Inflation Create The Fed’s No Win Housing Situation

Courtesy of Lee Adler

The NAR reported that the median US existing home sale price for sales that settled in July was $234,000, which puts the annual inflation rate for house prices at 5.6%. That’s softer than the June closed sale price inflation rate of 6.5% but still way above what the BLS is recognizing for the housing inflation component of CPI, which they are now plugging at 3% for a 41% weighting in Core CPI.

The NAR data represents sales that settled and were recorded by county governments in July, but generally took place in May on average. At the same time, Redfin has released data collected from MLS services in the 55 largest US metropolitan area for current contract prices in July. Unlike the lagging NAR data, this is real time market data released within a few weeks of the end of the month. Their data showed July contract prices rising by 5.1% year over year to a median sale price of $278,653. This was stronger than the 4% year to year gain seen in June contracts.

House Prices and Sales Volume

House Prices and Sales Volume

The NAR data next month will reflect the MLS June contract price data. July contract prices will show up in the NAR’s October release. The widely reported Case Shiller Index to be released next week, will only show average contract prices for March. July contract data won’t be reflected in Case Shiller until December. In addition, its smoothing methodology and the inclusion of repeat sales only further suppresses and slows the Case Shiller Index. Its methodology often leads to dangerously misleading conclusions. It is why Robert Shiller was nearly two years late in recognizing that the housing price crash had bottomed in 2011.

While Big Media focuses on Case Shiller it ignores the far more sensitive and timely sources of information that are available. Most astounding is the fact that even the Wall Street Journal, which is the PR organ of the Rupert Murdoch owned Realtor.com, emphasizes the Case Shiller data while refusing to report the accurate current real time house price data to which they have total access.

If Murdoch and his press-release-repeating minions…
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PSW August Portfolio Review – Members Only

$19,700!  

That's how much our Short-Term Portfolio gained on Friday during the market drop.  During the session, we cashed out some of our winning hedges and added a few more conservative positions into the weekend – just in case China comes through with stimulus and pops the market.  

That brought our cash position up from $255,000, at noted in the morning post, to $318,000.  In other words, we cashed out $62,975 worth of winning positions – WHILE THEY WERE WINNING – this is something I work very hard to teach our Members, the forgotten skill of taking profits off the table!  

As we calculated in Member Chat, we still had $45,000 of in-the-money protection after we cashed out the naked portions of our SDS, SQQQ and TZA hedges at 11:15.  Then, later in the day, we didn't like the way the market looked so we added bull call spreads on SDS and SQQQ after noting that the S&P and the Nasdaq still had a lot further to fall if this is a proper correction.  

What's the most important take-away here?  WE CHANGED OUR MIND!   We followed our Rule #1 and ALWAYS sold into the initial excitement because we got a good drop in the morning and we didn't want it to reverse on us.  Then, once the bounces were weak and we began breaking down again – we simply bought another SDS position and more SQQQs.  

A lot of traders are "embarrassed" to make a decision and then, even if they feel it was a mistake, to go back and re-buy the position – especially when they have to call a broker and "admit" they changed their mind.  That's a huge problem because even the best traders are wrong 40% of the time and sticking to wrong decisions does not make you a better trader (trust me, I've tried!).  

We take pokes at Futures entries all the time and rarely with conviction because we're only guessing where support will be and, if it fails – the quicker we CHANGE our minds the better!  Again, this is one of the reasons that learning to trade the Futures can make you a much better trader
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Clips from Today’s Halftime Report: Jim Chanos Edition

 

Clips from Today’s Halftime Report: Jim Chanos Edition

Courtesy of Joshua M. Brown

My friend Jim Chanos was on-set for the entire hour for today’s show. It was great timing, today was definitely a day that we wanted to hear some perspective from one of the greatest living legends in the biz and a natural born skeptic.

Chanos weighed in on China, Hewlett-Packard, Caterpillar, his new short position in Solar City and more. I found it really interesting that his shop doesn’t really have a view on the Federal Reserve. Anyway, check out the clips below:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 





Five Hundo

Courtesy of Joshua M. Brown

Screen Shot 2015-08-21 at 4.04.44 PM

 

You’ll read all the superlatives this weekend.

Biggest one-day drop since _____.

Ninth largest ____ ever.

Greatest spike in the Vix since ____.

4 out of every 5 ____ have now fallen ____ percent.

On and on. It’s a parlor game. Maybe this kind of thing is helpful for context. Maybe it’s just rubbernecking. Whatever.

What’s really important is to remember that days like today are why we call themrisk assets.

The S&P 500 historically provides you with a 7% average annual real return over the long term. That’s doubling your money roughly every 10 years.

But 7% average annual returns are not the same as 7% annual returns.

The word “average” appears in that statement. How are averages formed? By pinging violently back and forth between extremely varied numbers, such as +30% and -16% and +9% and -22% etc. In fact, you almost never get the long-run 7% on the nose in any given calendar year.

The asset class that has historically doubled your money every ten years is equally capable of making you feel like shit on the way there. Fortunately, never for very long.

Have a good weekend and pat yourself on the back. The pain of today is where the rewards of tomorrow originate from.





Is the Bull Market Over?

Is the Bull Market Over?

By 

Is the bull market, which started after the lows of early 2009, coming to an end? Let's have a look at some data, as well as the arguments pro and con, to see if we can find any insight. In particular, I want to look at the latest economic, corporate and market issues to see what we might learn.

First, the U.S. economy. As we have observed, it has been a long slog out of the depths of the financial crisis. Gross domestic product growth has never really taken off; wage growth is weak; and retail sales, except where cheap credit flows freely, have disappointed. Many people have little or negative equity in their homes. I have explained — or if you prefer, rationalized — that this is typical of other post-credit-crisis recoveries.

The primary upside to the U.S. economy has been job creation, housing and demand for capital. 

Start with the recovery in the labor market. Unemployment now is 5.3 percent, almost half of what it was in the aftermath of the crisis; 11 million jobs have been created since the Great Recession ended. Job openings continue to increase, and there are signs that wages may finally begin to move higher. This is significantly better than it has been at any time since 2007. 

Keep reading >

[Picture via Pixabay.]





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

The Crisis in Which Central Banks Lose Control Has Already Begun

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research.

For six years, the world has operated based on faith and hope that Central Banks somehow fixed the issues that caused the 2008 Crisis.

All of the arguments supporting this defied common sense. A 5th grader knows that you cannot solve a debt problem by issuing more debt. If the below chart was a problem BEFORE 2008… there is no way that things are better now. After all, we’ve just added another $10 trillion in debt to the US system.

Similarly, anyone with a functioning brain could tell you that a bunch of academics with no real-world experience, none of whom have ever started a business or created a single job can’t “save” the econom...



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Phil's Favorites

Nicole Foss Talks Energy Industry Issues and Oil Price Collapse

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth.


Unknown California State Automobile Association signage 1925

Nicole Foss recently participated in a live Skype ‘forum’ discussion at the Doomstead Diner site that also included, among others, Gail Tverberg, Steve Ludlum, Norman Pagett and Ugo Bardi. Apologies for the fact that I haven’t watched the videos yet and I’m getting the details as I go, so my info may be a bit sketchy. And so is the order the episodes come in here. I understand episode 3 is not even available yet.

I’ll run this in episodes. Today’s post contains episode 1. Yesterday I posted episode 2, ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

After all that, the stock market finished the week higher (Business Insider)

The stock market had a wild ride this week. And it ultimately ended up even better than it started. 

This week we saw a 1,000 point drop in the Dow in minutes, another drop of around 600 points in an hour of trading, and another day that saw one of the largest single-day point gains for the Dow in history.

Worried about your investments? Here’s the best advice (Market Watch)

The market is on a ...



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Chart School

Gann Angles advise which stocks should be in your portfolio

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Gann Angles are great for stock selection, the momentum trader, and judging corrections.

Here is a winning stock, Gann Angle 4x1 is holding the trend of PriceLine. Amazing trend!

Other stocks in this 7 year bull market like AAPL and SBUX have had great Gann angle supporting trends.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote...

...“Stocks create their own field of action and power; power to attract and repel,which principle explains why certain stocks at times lead the market...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Dangerous Place for a kiss of resistance, says Joe

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Anyone noticed its been a wild week? Has anything been proven with all the volatility the past 5-days?

What happens at (1) below, could tell us a good deal about what type of damage did or didn’t take place this week!

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The large decline on Monday cause the S&P 500 to break support of this rising channel.

The mid-week rally pushed the S&P higher and as of this morning it is kissing the underside of old support as resistance now, near the 50% retracement level of the large decline over the past few weeks.

Why could th...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Finally, market capitulation gives bulls a real test of conviction, plus perhaps a buying opportunity

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

The dark veil around China is creating a little too much uncertainty for investors, with the usual fear mongers piling on and sending the vast buy-the-dip crowd running for the sidelines until the smoke clears. Furthermore, Sabrient’s fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings have been flashing near-term defensive signals. The end result is a long overdue capitulation event that has left no market segment unscathed in its mass carnage. The historically long technical consolidation finally came to the point of having to break one way or the other, and it decided to break hard to the downside, actually testing the lows from last ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 24th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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ValueWalk

Some Hedge Funds "Hedged" During Stock Market Sell Off, Others Not As Risk Focused

By Mark Melin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the VIX index jumping 120 percent on a weekly basis, the most in its history, and with the index measuring volatility or "fear" up near 47 percent on the day, one might think professional investors might be concerned. While the sell off did surprise some, certain hedge fund managers have started to dip their toes in the water to buy stocks they have on their accumulation list, while other algorithmic strategies are actually prospering in this volatile but generally consistently trending market.

Stock market sell off surprises some while others were prepared and are hedged prospering

While so...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Battered After "Governance Coup"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Naysyers are warning that the recent plunge in Bitcoin prices - from almost $318 at its peak during the Greek crisis, to $221 yesterday - is due to growing power struggle over the future of the cryptocurrency that is dividing its lead developers. On Saturday, a rival version of the current software was released by two bitcoin big guns. As Reuters reports, Bitcoin XT would increase the block size to 8 megabytes enabling more transactions to be processed every second. Those who oppose Bitcoin XT say the bigger block size jeopardizes the vision of a decentralized payments system that bitcoin is built on with some believing ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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