Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Which Way Wednesday – Waiting on the Fed Minutes

Philstockworld Russell Futures Trade 05172016You are very welcome!  

Yesterday's morning post (which you can get, pre-market, every morning by subscribing HERE) was titled: "Trendless Tuesday – Watch Yesterday’s Fake Gains Disappear" and, if that wasn't enough of a hint of things to come, despite the Futures being positive at the time, I even let the free readers have a look at our Live Chat Trade Idea for playing the Indexes short, saying:

I've already put a note out to our Members to short the Futures in our Live Member Chat Room:

People are starting to notice China's debt and that's not a good thing.  After a brief flirt higher, we're back to Dow 17,650 (/YM), S&P 2,060 (/ES), Nasdaq 4,375 (/NQ), Russell 1,112.50 (/TF) and Nikkei 16,720 (/NKD) and I wouldn't use /NKD but the others all make good shorting lines to play (if 2 are under, short the laggards, look for last others to confirm and tight stops if any go back over).  

As you can see above, we had a nice $2,000 per contract gain on the Russell and the Dow hit 17,450 for a $1,000 per contract gain with the S&P hitting 2,040 for a $1,000 per contract gain and Nasdaq fell to 4,320 so 55 points at $20 per point is $1,100 gained on each of those contracts – not bad for a day's work!  

Keep in mind though, that that comment was a quote from our Member Chat Room at 7:42.  In the course of writing the post, we decided to add back the Nikkei short as well as it tested 16,700 and we caught a $750 gain per contract move to 16,550 after coming in just shy of our 16,500 target.  All in all, that's $5,850 in winning trade…
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Welcome To 1984

By Chris Hedges, originally posted at TruthDig.com

(Cross-posted at ZeroHedgehere. Bolding by ZH.)

The artifice of corporate totalitarianism has been exposed. The citizens, disgusted by the lies and manipulation, have turned on the political establishment. But the game is not over. Corporate power has within its arsenal potent forms of control. It will use them. As the pretense of democracy is unmasked, the naked fist of state repression takes its place. America is about—unless we act quickly—to get ugly.

“Our political system is decaying,” said Ralph Nader when I reached him by phone in Washington, D.C. “It’s on the way to gangrene. It’s reaching a critical mass of citizen revolt.”

This moment in American history is what Antonio Gramsci called the “interregnum”—the period when a discredited regime is collapsing but a new one has yet to take its place. There is no guarantee that what comes next will be better. But this space, which will close soon, offers citizens the final chance to embrace a new vision and a new direction.

This vision will only be obtained through mass acts of civic mobilization and civil disobedience across the country. Nader, who sees this period in American history as crucial, perhaps the last opportunity to save us from tyranny, is planning to rally the left for three days, from May 23 to May 26 at Constitution Hall in Washington, D.C., in what he is calling “Breaking Through Power” or “Citizen’s Revolutionary Week.” He is bringing to the capital scores of activists and community leaders to speak, organize and attempt to mobilize to halt our slide into despotism.

“The two parties can implode politically,” Nader said. “They can be divided by different candidates and super PACs. But this doesn’t implode their paymasters.”

“Elections have become off-limits to democracy,” he went on. “They have become off-limits to democracy’s fundamental civil community or civil society. When that happens, the very roots shrivel and dry up. Politics is now a sideshow. Politics does not bother corporate power. Whoever wins, they win. Both parties represent Wall Street over Main Street. Wall Street is embedded in the federal government.”

Donald Trump, like Hillary Clinton, has…
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Trendless Tuesday – Watch Yesterday’s Fake Gains Disappear

Philstockworld SPY Chart Here we go again.  

As you can see from the SPY chart, volume during yesterday's "rally" was 20% lower than even our recent low average (about 100M), which is 50% below last summers levels already and so much of the volume comes in the last 15 minutes of each day and it's generally selling as the TradeBots dump shares into whatever buyers they've managed to attract but, on the whole, the smart money is pouring OUT of the markets.  In fact, $7Bn came out of stock ETFs in April while $36.7Bn went into Bond ETFs – that should tell you something.  

What it doesn't tell you, however, is that $11.3Bn have flowed out of stocks in the first two weeks of May!  And, as usual, what earnings season is not telling you is that, if it weren't for another record-setting round of share buybacks by the S&P 500,  we'd be looking at a 7.5% earnings contraction this quarter – much worse than Q4 and guidance has not been encouraging either – so what on Earth is there to rally about?

These are the net incomes per share AFTER the companies have bought back 1.6% of their shares, on average, for the past 4 years.  That's 6.4% LESS shares that these earnings are being divided by and they are STILL DOWN 7.5% – that's pathetic!  The effect of the buybacks should be exponentially positive to EPS over time – we're going the other way and, aside from indicating a very poor earnings environment – it's a huge red flag that most of these companies have made very poor investments by diverting so much money into their own stocks, rather than investing in turning around their businesses.  

I've already put a note out to our Members to short the Futures in our Live Member Chat Room:

People are starting to notice China's debt and that's not a good thing.  After a brief flirt higher, we're back to 17,650, 2,060, 4,375, 1,112.50 and 16,720 and I wouldn't use /NKD but the others all make good shorting lines to play (if 2 are under, short the laggards, look for last others to confirm and tight stops


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Donald Trump – Sovereign Debt Genius

 

Donald Trump – Sovereign Debt Genius

Courtesy of The Banker

USA_Debt_to_GDPOne of The Donald’s great strengths is that he latches onto a partial truth – or an unspoken but widely held belief – and then expands upon it for his own purposes. Obviously this can veer into disgusting territory, when it comes to expressing sexually insecure men’s feelings about women, or insecure workers’ feelings about economic threats from China or Mexico. As Matt Taibbi eloquently expressed, he effectively uses this same talent of partial truth-telling to bash government and media elites who do, in fact, disdain, misunderstand, or ignore ‘regular Americans.’ Trump scores these points against Establishment elites because really, we sense some truth in what he says, that others before him won’t say.

Earlier in the week Trump stepped in a pile of it when he expressed truths about US sovereign debt which political leaders cannot openly discuss. Unconstrained by good taste, judicious character, or political consistency – he can pop off in any direction, occasionally hitting on an important point that more people should understand.  The Donald said:

“I’ve borrowed knowing that you can pay back with discounts. I’d borrow [as President, on behalf of the US] knowing that if the economy crashed, you could made a deal.”

This is so crazy that he said it – as a person running for President – that you kind of have to laugh at his gall. On the other hand, he’s right. This is what happens when countries borrow too much. And also, we don’t really know – or have any kind of open discussion in this country – about what constitutes too much national borrowing.

trump_fingers

Those fingers tho…

When I worked as an emerging market bond salesman in the late 1990s – slinging bonds from places like Pakistan, Ukraine, Ecuador, Argentina, Russia, and Ivory Coast – we used to put out economic research for our clients that pointed out that a 70% Debt/GDP ratio marked a kind of scary ‘Do Not Cross’ line. If the total amount of sovereign debt exceeded 70% of the economic output of country, you might have to start worrying about whether that country could reliably pay back its bonds. Once you hit 100% Debt/GDP,


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Monday’s Oil Mess: Rent-A-Rebel Jacks up Prices into the Holiday

Rent-A-Rebel to the rescue!  

That's right, whenever the oil market needs a lift, there are hundreds of reliable groups of kids with guns and outboard motors who are able to shut down oil production and transportation around the World.  This week, with just 5 days to go until the contract rollover on Friday and 239M barrels of fake, Fake, FAKE!!! orders piled up at the NYMEX, the best way to boost interest in the contracts you are dumping is to funnel $50,000 to some starving teenagers and promise another $50,000 if they can interrupt the oil supply enough to get you an extra Dollar for your $239M barrels.  This week, it's a brand new group in Nigeria driving up prices by issuing this ultimatum:

The Niger Delta Avengers is giving two weeks ultimatum to all oil companies in our region to shut down and evacuates their staff. To international oil companies, this is just the beginning and you have not seen anything yet. We will make you suffer as you have made the people of the Niger Delta suffer over the years from environmental degradation and environment pollution,” the group said in a statement signed by spokesman Mudoch Agbinibo.

If at the end of the ultimatum and you’re still operating. We will blow up all the locations. It will be bloody. So, just shut down your operations and leave,” it added.

That was just what the oil bull doctor ordered and oil blasted up from $46 to $47.25 (2.5%) on that "news" completing the exact 5% move from $45 and right back to our shorting range at $47 (if it crosses back under).  While a small group of students "incapacitate" dozens of multi-Billion Dollar energy firms and their extensive security forces (and if so, what hope is there against terrorism), the reality is Nigeria is still putting out 1.7Mb/day of crude, 800,000 of their peak capacity, which isn't nothing but only 1/3 of the 3Mbd global glut we're in at the moment.  

No, this is all theater to drive gas prices up
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Life on the Edge

 

Life on the Edge

By John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

“Where justice is denied, where poverty is enforced, where ignorance prevails, and where any one class is made to feel that society is an organized conspiracy to oppress, rob and degrade them, neither persons nor property will be safe.”

– Frederick Douglass

“I am for doing good to the poor, but I differ in opinion about the means. I think the best way of doing good to the poor is not making them easy in poverty, but leading or driving them out of it.”

– Benjamin Franklin

Like many of you, I’m trying to understand an economic landscape that’s changing by the day – and rarely for the better, at least from the standpoint of the middle and lower classes. I am also trying to understand how in the world the two great US political parties have conspired to give us a choice, as Peggy Noonan has said, of “Crazy Man vs. Criminal.”

I think these two questions are related, and not just in the United States. Populist angst is taking hold around the world. Like all anger, it isn’t necessarily rational and may not bring the desired changes, but the anger and frustration are real. People have real problems, and increasingly they don’t trust traditional leaders to solve them.

Last week I had the privilege of meeting first privately and then publicly with Peggy Noonan. For those who don’t know, she was President Reagan’s speech writer and is now aWall Street Journal columnist and celebrated author. As a writer, she is one of my heroes, perhaps the greatest essayist of my generation – a true wordsmith.

Back in February, with the presidential campaign in full force, Peggy wrote a column that has been on my mind ever since. She titled it “Trump and the Rise of the Unprotected.” Everyone should read it, preferably several times. It is that good.

Whatever you think of Donald Trump, he is a symptom…
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Using Stock Options to Pay Yourself 5% Monthly Dividends

Sometimes we forget the basics.

In our video series, there's a lesson called "The Secret to Consistent 20-40% Annual Returns on Stocks" and I hope you've seen it.  Although the low implied volatility of the market has made it a rough year for option selling, we were still able to scratch out just over 40% profits in four months in our paired Long-Term and Short-Term Portfolios.    Our other virtual portfolios are also performing very well with the Options Opportunity Portfolio up over 30% in 2016 and, surprisingly, our very conservative Butterfly Portfolio is up over 60% due to some not very conservative bullish adjustments we made in the February dip.  On the whole, though, we accomplished all this by following the BASIC strategies we teach at Philstockworld, not by gambling! 

Not that we're adverse to gambling, gambling is fun – but fun means fun, which means it's a small part of our total investing portfolio while the vast bulk of our money is SENSIBLY INVESTED in safer strategies that are designed to grind out consistently good returns over many years.  We have discussed the long-term advantages of compounding annual growth in "How to Get Rich Slowly" and now we'll begin discussing some basic strategies that will help you generate those consistent annual returns to put you on a path to a healthy, wealthy retirement.

In the "7 Steps" video, we're discussing a basic covered call strategy and we delve into the Fundamentals of stock selection.  At the time (Sept 2013), we were using ABX, which was trading at $19.15 and we sold the November $19 calls (45 days out) for $1.30.  The simple instructions were to wash, rinse and repeat to make up to 40% a year by simply selling calls against the stock.  

As you can see, ABX has dropped as low as $6.57 since then, down about 65% BUT, had you followed through and kept selling calls, we had a lovely 12-month period in which it stayed in our range and that would have given us 8 opportunities to collect at least $1 for $8 back before the stock turned down in September of 2014.  That would have dropped the net outlay below $10 and stopping out at $15 would have been a…
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Weekend Reading: Going Nowhere Fast

Courtesy of Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice

Another week of choppy market action and the end result was a move to “nowhere.” As I stated previously, the current action is either a consolidation process or a topping process:

“First of all, it is worth noting that despite all of the recent excitement of the markets advance, it remains extremely confined in a sideways trading range. This can either be good or bad news.

The Good: Sideways consolidations during bullishly biased markets provides the ability to work off excesses built up during the previous advance to provide the “fuel” necessary for the next leg higher.

The Bad: However, sideways consolidations can also mark the end of the previous bullish advance and the beginning of a bearish decline.

How do we know the difference? Normally, fundamentals tell the story. When earnings are still rising, market consolidations tend to resume to the upside. However, declining earnings have historically marked market topping processes much as we see today.”

SP500-Chart2-042616

While this time could certainly be different, historically such has not been the case.  At this juncture, the market has yet to confirm whether the recent price action is just part of a broader topping process or if the now somewhat well-aged bull market is setting up for a final advance. The most interesting aspect is the similarity between the current market action and that seen prior to the beginning of this year.

SP500-MarketUpdate-051216

With summer fast approaching, the markets still appear to be very fragile exposing investors to a similar “swoon” in the months ahead. This is particularly the case with both the economic and fundamental underpinnings still showing signs of deterioration. 

The inherent problem of “eternal bullishness” is the “willful blindness” to the underlying data in an effort to chase short-term returns. This leads to the unfortunate problem of being “all-in” on every hand which has a devastating consequence when a mean reverting event occurs.

In the end, it does not matter IF you are “bullish” or “bearish.” The reality is that both “bulls” and “bears” are owned by the “broken clock” syndrome during the full-market cycle. However, what is grossly important in achieving long-term investment success is not necessarily being…
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$5,000 Friday – Yesterday’s Futures Trades Pay Off Nicely

You are welcome!  

I know often those of you who don't subscribe to the PSW Report don't get these trade ideas after the market opens and miss out on some of our Futures trades but yesterday oil didn't even hit our target short at $47 until 9:20 and was still at $46.75 even after my free post went up over at Seeking Alpha with that very, very specific trade idea and target.  We actually published the trade idea at 5:53 am in our live Member Chat room – so our Members had hours to get on board and you can actually see our initiation of the trade all the way back on Wednesday, during our Live Trading Webinar at 2pm (where I also called Retail dead the day before the big Retail sell off (at 00:56:10)!   

As it worked out, we nailed the top and nailed the bottom on that oil call and no, I'm not psychic – we're merely using the 5% Rule™ – one of the essential tools we teach to our Members at PSW every day!  

We even made money on the move back up in our Live Member Chat Room, calling the turn at 11:17, a full hour before it began to go higher.  We also had similar success on our Gasoline Futures play (/RB), where we had called the short in the Webinar at $1.575 and we caught a 0.02 drop at $420 per penny, per contract, which paid $840 on a single contract and $3,360 for 4 to push us well over the $5,000 mark from Wednesday's Webinar Trade Ideas – keeping our 2016 streak of winning trade ideas alive.  

Remember – I can only tell you what is going to happen in the markets and how to make money playing it – the rest is up to you!  

We had an extensive macro discussion this morning on oil and the Global Economy in our chat room, so I won't go over that again but the key takeaway was the Abe/Kuroda one-two punch this morning that sent the Yen lower but has failed to lift the Nikkei as people simply no longer believe in the Banksters who…
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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar 05-11-16

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar 05-11-16

Major Topics:
 
00:01:48 Checking on the Markets: CL, NASDAQ, DX, RUSSEL, NKD, NG
00:11:13 Natural Gas: Futures, Trade Idea
00:19:10 Seeking Alpha News: Amazon, Nikkei, Retail Sales, Apple, Fed Hike, Boeing’s Buybacks, Disney, Grubhub
00:31:57 Checking on the Markets: CL, NKD
00:32:40 AAL: PE, Puts and Calls, Trade Idea
00:41:16 COGO: Puts, Trade Idea
00:46:25 Disney: Bull Calls Spread, Trade Idea
00:56:10 “Retail is Dead”
00:58:35 EIA
01:06:17 Petroleum Status Report
01:10:28 Checking on the Markets: CL, RB, DOW
01:15:10 Goldman: No Fed Hike Until December
01:16:42 Checking on the Markets
01:20:14 Trade Idea
01:21:54 RB: Shorts
01:24:26 Options Opportunity Portfolio
01:25:54 Butterfly Portfolio
01:26:15 Short-Term Portfolio
01:26:36 Long Term Portfolio
01:27:37 Checking on the Markets
01:30:50 More Trade Ideas…

Don't miss next week's webinar in real-time. Get LIVE access to Phil's Weekly Webinars by joining us at Phil's Stock World — click here!)





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Eurogroup Agrees To Disburse €7.5BN To Greece Which Will Be Used To Repay Creditors

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Once upon a time, markets trembled when Greek bailout implementation headlines were announced, which is what just happened if slightly ahead of our forecast schedule...

Kazimir Says Eurogroup Meeting Won’t Be an Easy One: translation - Greece will agree to everything some time around 4am

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 24, 2016

... and this time nobody cares. Well maybe the Greeks do, ...



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Chart School

March Real Disposable Income Per Capita Rises Again

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

With the release of today's report on March Personal Incomes and Outlays we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita.

The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013.

At two decimal places, the nominal 0.31% month-over-month increase in disposable income comes in at 0.26% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 3.20% nominal and 2.35% real.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Elites vs. Too Much Democracy: Andrew Sullivan's Afraid of Popular Self-Government

 

Elites vs. Too Much Democracy: Andrew Sullivan’s Afraid of Popular Self-Government

By

This post first appeared on BillMoyers.com.

British expatriate writer Andrew Sullivan recently returned to the public eye with a piece that has aroused considerable comment, some of it reasonably on point, ...



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ValueWalk

Wilbur Ross discusses Donald Trump's candidacy, and his investing strategy

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.


Wilbur Ross discusses Donald Trump’s candidacy, and his investing strategy

The post Wilbur Ross discusses Donald Trump’s candidacy, and his investing strategy appeared first on ValueWalk.

Sign up for ValueWalk's free newsletter here.

...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Global Stocks Broadly Higher, Reversing Early Losses (Wall Street Journal)

Global stocks climbed Tuesday, while the dollar strengthened against the euro and yen.

Shares, dollar climb as markets play Fed waiting game (Reuters)

European shares were heading for their best day in over a month on Tuesday as the waiting game to see whether the U.S. raises interest rates again next month sent the euro to its lowest since March.

Asian shares had stumbled to near 2-1/2-month lows ove...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 23rd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold- Two-thirds odds prices fall on a support break

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Since the peak in 2011, Gold remains in a downtrend, creating a series of lower high and lower lows.

Gold’s rally in 2016 is attempting to break this 5-year falling trend, as it is attempting to break a series of lower highs.

Over the past 6-months, Gold could be creating a rising wedge pattern. This pattern two-thirds of the time, suggests lower prices are ahead.

...

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Digital Currencies

The Biggest Bitcoin Arbitrage Ever?

Courtesy of Chris at CapitalistExploits

Do you remember when you were growing up and all your friends were allowed Atari game consoles but you weren’t?

Well, I do and the things seemed as foreign to me as Venus. Mostly because the little time I managed to spend on the gaming consoles when my friends weren’t hogging them I found it all a bit silly. I never “got” computer games, and to this day still have poor comprehension of things like Angry Birds.

I suspect that many people around the world view Bitcoin in the same way as I view Angry Birds: with mild amusement and a general lack of understanding as to what the hell all the fuss is about.

I was thinking of this since a buddy of mine recently started ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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