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Stock World Weekly 4/21/13

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Stock World Weekly 4/21/13





Fed Governor Stein Warns When A TBTF Bank Fails, Depositors Will Be Cyprus’ed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Two months ago, Fed governor Jeremy Stein caused a major stir among the very serious excel-using economists and other wannabe "scientists"-cum-voodoo witchdoctors, when he hinted that it was the Fed's actions that were leading to "overheating" in the markets. It took quite a bit of rhetoric by other very serious people to talk down his comments and give the impression that the S&P is not about 50% overvalued. Today, Stein has managed to stick his foot in his mouth for the second time in a row, and do what virtually nobody in the status quo is capable of: tell the truth.

In a speech titled "Regulating Large Financial Institutions" Stein made something very clear: if and when a TBTF fails, and since this time is not different, and a failure is only a matter of time, depositors will lose everything, which now that Cyprus is the template, is to be expected. Not only that but Stein makes it all too clear that part of the Dodd-Frank resolution authority guidelines, a bailout is no longer an option.

Perhaps more to the point for TBTF, if a SIFI does fail I have little doubt that private investors will in fact bear the losses--even if this leads to an outcome that is messier and more costly to society than we would ideally like. Dodd-Frank is very clear in saying that the Federal Reserve and other regulators cannot use their emergency authorities to bail out an individual failing institution. And as a member of the Board, I am committed to following both the letter and the spirit of the law.

At least he can't say Americans weren't warned when the Cypressing(sic) hammer finally falls.

Oh, and as a reminder…





Investor vs. Trader and the Tax Code

 

Source: imbibemagazine.com via Carol on Pinterest

Investor vs. Trader and the Section 475(f) Tax Election

The information provided in the article below is true and factual to the best of our knowledge as of April 9, 2013. However, it is not intended to be comprehensive or complete. Always discuss your choices and options with a tax professional. Appropriate IRS publications and/or IRC section citations are provided. State tax laws are not discussed. 

Disclaimer: Phil’s Stock World website and its affiliates, owners and representatives do not have direct or indirect knowledge of the validity of the statements contained herein, and, therefore cannot express opinions or confirm the correctness of any statement. Moreover, tax laws change frequently, and up-to-date information from a tax professional is always recommended. The author of this article has no expressed or inferred liability for the accuracy of the statements in the article below. 

****

Investor vs. Trader and the Section 475(f) Tax Election

By Dawn Rinaldi (Dawnr)

As you begin your trading activities, you probably don’t want to think about taxes!  However, a little bit of time reviewing tax details with a tax adviser can help you keep more of your hard earned trading profits or allow you more effective write-offs for losses. 

Let’s start exploring the issues…

Are you a ‘Trader’ or an ‘Investor’ as defined by the IRS?

Special, more favorable tax rules apply if you are a trader in securities – i.e., if you are in the business of buying and selling securities for your own account. To be engaged in business as a trader in securities, you must meet ALL the following conditions:

  • Only trading in TAXABLE accounts (not retirement accounts) counts toward trader tax status.
  • You are not a licensed broker or dealer (outside of the scope of this document)
  • You must seek to profit from daily market movements in the prices of securities and not from dividends, interest, or capital appreciation. 
  • Your activity must be substantial, and 
  • You must carry on the activity with continuity and regularity. 

The following factors are considered in determining whether your activity qualifies as a securities trading business:

  • Typical holding periods for securities bought and sold.
  • The frequency and dollar amount of your trades


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Stock World Weekly

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20 Stocks You Should Own In Q2

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

The Champ:IBaker's Dozen 2013

Weighing in with sustained earnings stamina, the BAKER’S DOZEN, the 12-month buy-and-hold champ, has NEVER lost to the market!

In 2012 the BAKER’S DOZEN gained +43%, KO-ing the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 and leaving some of the biggest names on Wall Street—Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan—clinging to the ropes. Its compounded annual return over the past four years is+190%.

And this year? Baker's Dozen 2013 has a Q1 performance of+14.38%!

The Challenger: Earnings Busters Q2

Weighing in with powerful quarterly knockouts, EARNINGS BUSTERS Q2 is the only real challenger on the market.

In 2012 Earnings Busters* gained +35.6%—also beating those same Wall Street wizards—and boasts a total compounded return of +167.6% over the last four years. Earnings Busters even beat the Baker’s Dozen in 2009 by 45 percentage points!

And this year? Earnings Busters is in the lead, with a gain of+18.65% for Q1!

Chart 1, at the bottom of this page, shows the dramatic 2012 performance of
these two Sabrient portfolios against their peers.

Do you want this kind of market-beating performance?

If you missed out on the 2013 Baker’s Dozen or if you don’t like the idea of waiting 12 months for a fresh list of "earnings busting" stocks . . . OR if you just want excellent returns on your investments—
 

SIGN UP NOW for EARNINGS BUSTERS Q2

 

Earnings Busters Q2 is a simpler-to-manage version of the 13-stock, 13-rolling-week version. It is quarterly buy-and-hold 20-stock portfolio: Simply buy the stocks at the beginning of the quarter and


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Stock World Weekly: Apr. 7, 2013

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Brett Arends on Why Your Mom & Pop Can’t Invest for Sh*t

Brett Arends on Why Your Mom & Pop Can’t Invest for Sh*t

Courtesy of 

Loved this rant from Brett at MarketWatch yesterday, he's more right than he knows judging by the stuff I've seen…

First, their minds have been playing tricks on them all along. The crash of 2008 did not wipe out half their savings, unless they invested all their money right at the peak and sold right at the bottom. The reality is that it wiped out a lot of illusory gains and replaced them with a lot of illusory losses. Stock prices were wrong in 2007 because they were too high, and they were wrong in late 2008 and early 2009 because they were too low.

Second, as they now know, they sold out somewhere near the lows. They were not alone. According to the Investment Company Institute, the trade body of the mutual fund industry, U.S. investors flooded the market with stocks in the fall of 2008 and the winter of 2009. From September, 2008 through March, 2009, ordinary U.S. investors dumped $114 billion worth of stock funds. They sold at absolutely the worst time.

This is not a coincidence. The stock market is “us.”

To be clear, I don't see the renewed interest in stocks from the Mom & Pop investor class as a negative or a sign of a massive top – it's when they start quitting their jobs to daytrade or offering me tips at dinner parties that I get more circumspect about the meeting of Main Street and Wall Street.

But, we're not there yet, these people are buying index funds at this point and they are anything but giddy and care-free at the moment.

I nicked the below chart from Barry, it's hard to say the folks are truly "running with the bulls" just now. My best guess is we're somewhere hovering between Media Attention – "new highs!" – and Enthusiasm. Could be wrong, just a hunch.

stages_bubble

Source:

Mom and pop: The world’s worst investors (MarketWatch)





Stock World Weekly – March 31, 13

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Stock World Weekly (3/24/13)

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Here's the latest Stock World Weekly for your enjoyment. Click on this link.





Is The Government Lying To Us About Inflation? Yes!

Is The Government Lying To Us About Inflation? Yes!

Courtesy of JOHN MAULDIN

In today’s Outside the Box, Gary D. Halbert (my old and very dear friend and former business partner of many years) reminds us about a few significant facts concerning the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that mainstream economists and the media tend to ignore. The central question is whether the CPI is really indicative of the actual inflation rate. Not likely, says Gary, since the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which compiles the CPI, has engaged in methodological shenanigans over the past couple decades (as has been well documented by John Williams of ShadowStats, among others). The upshot of all their monkeying with the numbers is that the official rate of inflation may be two to four times lower than the actual rate (which is rather convenient if you’re a government bureaucrat trying to hold down interest costs and Social Security payments).

These changes are hotly debated in academic circles. There are many economists who agree with the changes and can show with their models that inflation is low. That is the currently accepted wisdom, or what passes for it. The problem is that inflation only shows up, as one person put it, in the things we actually buy. If your main costs are food, energy, education, and healthcare (ring any bells?), then inflation is a great deal higher than 2%. Other items are actually falling in price. It comes down to the mix of items in the calculations and whether you buy into the concepts of substitution (if beef gets too expensive we buy hamburger rather than steak) and “hedonics,” which says that prices of products drop over time as quality and manufacturing efficiency improve, so the calculation of inflation should take this into account.

Which means you can have official inflation at a low level (or even falling for certain items), while the amount you actually spend out of your very real pocket is rising! And thus the debate.

Having refreshed us on the basic techniques of CPI massage, Gary turns to food and energy, which the BLS includes in “headline CPI” but omits from “core CPI.” He points out that while headline CPI jumped an unexpected 0.7% in February, core CPI rose only 0.2%. That is, food and energy price increases accounted for more than 70% of the rise. “Not good for the


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Phil's Favorites

Nikkei Plunges 1,143 Points (7.32%); Global Equities Hammered; Start of Reflation Bubble Bust?

Courtesy of Mish.

The Nikkei plunged a whopping 1,143 points as the following chart shows.



Global Equities Hammered

It's not just the Nikkei that's being hammered. Asia-Pacific is in a rout as well.



click on chart for sharper image

Start of Reflation Bubble Bust?

Is this the start of the great reflation un...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Fed tries to refill bulls’ fuel tank as cyclicals lead

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

The market went through some gyrations on Wednesday in reaction to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. He first defended continued quant easing by warning, “A premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but also would carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery.” Stocks dutifully rallied and all major indexes hit new intraday highs.

But alas, consensus is apparently not a given over the longer term. The minutes hinted that a tapering off could start sooner, “A number of participants expressed willingness to adjust the flow of purchases downward as early as the June meeting if the economic information received by that time showed evidence of sufficiently strong and sustained growth.” So …...



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Zero Hedge

Japanese Stocks Plunge 1000 Points - Biggest Drop In 26 Months

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

UPDATE: They are paniccing... BOJ injected 2 trillion yen ($19.4 billion) into the financial system to stem volatility following a circuit breaker in JGB futures trading.

All the time it is just the quadrillion JPY second-largest bond market in the world that is experiencing volatility on an unprecedented scale, the BoJ and her partners in crime are more than willing to 'officially' say "please do not worry." But when the equity market - that barometer of everything good and holy about Abenomics starts to crater, you can bet the excuses will co...



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Insider Scoop

Long Setup in Herbalife Still Attractive; Stock Breaks Out as New Auditor Hired

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Few stocks have attracted more news over the last six months than nutritional supplement maker Herbalife (NYSE: HLF).

Even casual market observers are aware of the circumstances surrounding the the initial bout of extreme volatility in the name back in December 2012. The shares went into free-fall at the end of the year after hedge fund manager Bill Ackman revealed in typical sanctimonious fashion that his firm Pershing Square Capital Management was short around $1 billion worth of the stock.

Amid much pomp and circumstance, Ackman laid out his short thesis at a New York investment conference and...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Option Review

Big Volume In Saks Options As Shares Rip Higher

 

Today’s tickers: SKS, USG & PFE

SKS - Saks, Inc. – Timely bullish bets initiated in Saks options just seconds prior to the closing bell on Tuesday are generating sizable gains for at least one trader today, with shares in the high-end retailer up at the highest level since 2008. The stock closed Tuesday up 11% on the day at $13.67 after the company reported first-quarter revenue above average analyst expectations. Within minutes of the close shares in SKS moved sharply to the upside after the New York Post, citing a source familiar with the matter, reported...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Fed Induced Bipolar Disorder

Courtesy of Doug Short.

With yesterday's dovish duo Bullard and Dudley to set expectations, the S&P 500 rallied in anticipation of Chairman Bernanke's congressional testimony and soared to its all-time intraday high, up 1.07% during his prepared remarks. But the Q&A deflated the balloon, and the 2 PM release of the latest Fed Minutes accelerated the decline. It seems that the possibility of tapering QE in the near term is not entirely off the table. The index hit its -1.23% intraday low about 30 minutes before the final bell. It then trimmed its loss to close down 0.83%. The 10-year yield jumped 9 bps to close at 2.03%, just off the 2013 interim high of 2.07% on March 11th and 37 bps off its 2013 low set 14 sessions back.

Here is a 15-minute look at the week so far.

Not surprisingly the volume on today's 2.32% high-low intraday range was 24% above its 50-day movi...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Market Montage

More History

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Doing a lot of data mining as we watch this market go parabolic.

The S&P 500 is 13.4% over the 200 day moving average.  10%+ is considered overbought, and 12% is very rare.

The current Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the S&P 500 is 75.  Over 70 is generally overbought (below 30 oversold).  To put in perspective in 1999 the S&P touched 70ish a few times but never hit 75.   The NASDAQ in 1999 – early 2000 hit mid 70s a few days in July 99 and Mar 00.  Then in the parabolic move in November and December 1999 (NASDAQ gained over 1000 pts!) it sat between 70 and mid 80s for most of two months; of course t...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 20th, 2013

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

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...

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

The IRA portfolio

Reminder: Craigzooka is available to chat with Members regarding his virtual portfolio performance, comments are found below each post.

By Craigzooka

I am going to share with you how I manage my IRA and the power of reducing your cost basis.  My goal each year is a 20% return in my IRA.  Sometimes I make it and sometimes I don't, but I believe that all of my success is due to reducing my cost basis.  To illustrate the power of reducing your cost basis here are some trades we did last year.  These trades are taken from an educational portfolio we ran in a paper-trading account for a little more than a year.

  • We bought RIG on 5/15/2012 for $44.13, sold it on 1/18/2013 for $46 but booked a profit of $1,154.
  • We bought MT on 1/4/2012 for $19.24, sold it on 12/21/2012 for $15 but booked a profit of $454.
  • We bought CHK on 1/27/2012 for $21.93, sold it on 10/19/2012 for $18 b...


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ETF Selector

Stock Market Gets Big News After Friday’s Close

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Stock market posts another record setting week, but the big news came after Friday’s close.

Courtesy of NASA

The stock market put on another record setting show with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) closing at a record high 15,118 and the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) closing at 1633.70, another all time closing high.

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) gained 1%, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) climbed 1.2%, the Nasdaq Composite (NYSEARCA:...



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Pharmboy

Give Them an Inch, They Will Take a Mile

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well, well, well....it is good to know that there are others in the scientific arena who believed that YMI Bioscience's data (cough - Gilead) is a better drug than Incyte's Jakafi.  Now, the definitive data are still unknown, but there was enough evidence from a Phase 2 trial to take a small risk for a huge reward.  So, let's forget about Apple (AAPL), and do nothing but biotechs from now until Congress passes universal health care coverage for prescriptions....and drive the prices down so that research and development is no longer feasible to conduct in the US. Even Seattle Genetics (SGEN) has been on a tear as of late...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site (blogroll, archives, more). Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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