Archive for the ‘Appears on main page’ Category

Tricky Tuesday – How Will the Markets Perform with Volume Trading?

Image result for slow trading dayAre we there yet?

The average volume trading on SPY, the S&P ETF is 100M shares per day yet this month, the average has been 70M so about 30% less trading than "usual", which was very slow to begin with (down 25% from last year).  A lot of times, if you are day-trading and you feel like you're the only one in a position – you are probably right!  

As you can see from the above chart, when you see these kind of toppy, sloppy patterns – it's best just not to trade and wise traders go to CASH!!! (have I mentioned how much I like CASH!!! lately?) and wait PATIENTLY for conditions to improve.  If that chart looks familiar to you – just check out what the S&P 500 Futures (/ES) have been doing for the past few weeks:

That is what they call a "textbook" example of a market that is not good to trade.  That's why we stopped making calls in our morning posts after a fantastic first week of the year:  A) We didn't want to ruin our perfect record and B) There were no longer any very obvious trades to call.  We did, however, call oil short at $54 on the 6th and it's been up and down but now $53.20, which is still up $800 per contract from where we called it and now we're calling that one short again (/CL) as well as Gasoline (/RB) at the $1.65 line.

Why are we short oil and gasoline?  Well oil, in particular, is nothing more than a gigantic fraud of a market that is based on the artificial manipulation of what has always been, historically, a plentiful supply.  As we all know, OPEC spent most of last year promising to cut production and, FINALLY, this January they actually did cut production, by 1.5% of Global supply and this morning they spiked oil from $52.20 to $53.20 by releasing a statement from the Secretary General predicting oil prices would stabilize in 2017 and hit $70 by the year's end.  


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“What Will We Be Talking About This Time Next Year” – Here Is Jeff Gundlach’s Answer

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Over the weekend, Barron's published its annual roundtable in which prominent investors previewed what they expect out of 2017: "a year of seismic shifts for the markets and, quite possibly, the world. Or, as Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen said at this year’s Barron’s Roundtable, “We are breaking a lot of trends.” As Barron's dubbed it, "this could be the year the movie runs backward: Inflation awakens. Bond yields reboot. Stocks stumble. Active management rules. And we haven’t even touched on the coming regime change in Washington, which will usher tax cutters and regulatory reformers back to power after an eight-year absence."

While there were many insightful observations by the group of participants – whose sentiment was decidedly more bearish than during last year's event – which included Scott Black, Felix Zulauf, Mario Gabelli, Meryl Witmer, Brian Rogers, Oscar Schafer, and Abby Cohen, we will focus on the predictions of Jeffrey Gundlach, if only due to his track record from the similar Barron's roundtable one year earlier, in which he turned out to be far more prescient than most of his peers, not least of all because he "made the greatest prediction at last year’s Roundtable—that Trump would win the presidency."

The first question posed to Gundlach was also the broadest one: what are you predicting now?

People have forgotten the mood regarding stocks and bonds in the middle of 2016. Investors embraced the idea that zero interest rates and negative rates would be with us for a very long time. People said on TV that you should buy stocks for income and bonds for capital gains. This is when 10-year Treasuries were yielding 1.32%. Someone actually said rates would never rise again. When you hear “never” in this business, that usually means what could “never” happen is about to happen. I told our asset-allocation team in early July that this was the worst setup I’d seen in my entire career for U.S. bonds. It occurred to me that the bond-market rally was probably very near an end, and fiscal stimulus would soon become the order of the day.

Based on a comparison in July of nominal Treasuries to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, the bond market was


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Matt Taibbi: “Insane Clown President Trump Was Right About The Media”

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While U.S. political journalist Matt Taibbi has made no bones about his dislike of Donald Trump… (via Rolling Stone a day after the election):

Most of us smarty-pants analysts never thought Trump could win because we saw his run as a half-baked white-supremacist movement fueled by last-gasp, racist frustrations of America's shrinking silent majority. Sure, Trump had enough jackbooted nut jobs and conspiracist stragglers under his wing to ruin the Republican Party. But surely there was no way he could topple America's reigning multicultural consensus. How could he? After all, the country had already twice voted in an African-American Democrat to the White House.

Yes, Trump's win was a triumph of the hideous racism, sexism and xenophobia that has always run through American society. But his coalition also took aim at the neoliberal gentry's pathetic reliance on proxies to communicate with flyover America. They fed on the widespread visceral disdain red-staters felt toward the very people Hillary Clinton's campaign enlisted all year to speak on its behalf: Hollywood actors, big-ticket musicians, Beltway activists, academics, and especially media figures.

Trump's rebellion was born at the intersection of two toxic American myths, the post-racial society and the classless society.

CBC reports that the Rolling Stone columnist admits in his new book - "Insane Clown President: Dispatches from the 2016 Circus"the president-elect got more than a few things right during an election campaign that brought to the forefront America's struggles with racism, class divide and economic stagnation.

One of Trump's gambles that really paid off, according to Taibbi, was painting a target on the back of the U.S. political media.

"The media and politicians had spent so much time with each other that they lost touch with regular people, and Trump capitalized on that. He made us in the media villains, representative of this out of touch, ivory tower political culture," he said.

 

"I think there's some fairness to it, as much as I dislike Donald Trump, he hit a note, several notes, in this campaign that were true, and that was one of them."

Another one, he says, is Washington corruption.


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Are Oil Speculators About To Get Lit Up Again?

 

Are Oil Speculators About To Get Lit Up Again?

Courtesy of Dana Lyons

image

Speculators in crude oil futures are back near their “obscene” record net-long position set just prior to the 2014 collapse in oil prices.

When we started posting our charts on social media and writing this blog some three years ago, one of the most popular early posts dealt with trader positioning in crude oil futures. That was at the beginning of July 2014, and to this day it remains one of our most popular posts. The title of the post was “Large Speculators Net-Long To Obscene Extreme”. And to look at the chart was to instantly understand the impetus behind the title.

Chart from July 3, 2014 post:

image

 

At the time, the trajectory of the record net-long position in crude oil futures by Non-Commercial Speculators (and by extension, the record net-short position by Commercial Hedgers) had gone fully parabolic. In the case of the Speculators, prior to 2013, their largest ever net-long position in crude oil futures was 276,000 contracts, and prior to 2011, the record was 176,000 contracts. At the end of June 2014, their net-long position was a record-smashing 459,000 contracts. On the flip side, Hedgers’ net-short position had grown to a record 492,000 contracts.

Why was that important? As we have explained on many occasions in these pages, this data from the CFTC’s Commitment Of Traders (COT) report provides a very useful look at the positioning of various groups of traders. The 2 biggest groups are Non-Commercial Speculators and Commercial Hedgers:

  • Non-Commercial Speculators are by and large commodity pools and hedge funds that exist mainly to trade the market long and short. These funds are normally trend-following entities. And while they can be on the correct side of a long trend, at extremes they are considered “dumb money” as they are typically “off-sides”.
  • Commercial Hedgers are typically financial firms and institutions involved directly in an industry reliant upon a particular commodity. Most of the time, they are truly “hedging” within the commodity market, primarily taking the other side of the Speculators’ trades.


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Yertle, the Commander-in-Chief

 

Yertle, the Commander-in-Chief

Courtesy of 

This post first appeared on BillMoyers.com.

Dr. Seuss taught me to read. My older brother brought Seuss books home to me from the local public library because I was too young to have a library card of my own.

The Cat in the Hat, Bartholomew and the OobleckHorton Hears a Who!  — all, for better or worse, played a role in my early childhood development, a phase from which I have yet to emerge, but never mind. Yet as I watched Donald Trump’s press conference on Wednesday morning, a performance reminiscent of PT Barnum — if Barnum suffered from Attention Deficit Disorder, congenital petulance and anger management issues — I was reminded of a different Dr. Seuss masterwork:

Yertle the Turtle.

Yertle, you see, is the king of the pond “on the faraway island of Sala-ma-Sond.” But not content with the size of his smallish but prosperous domain, he orders nine other turtles to climb on one another’s backs to create a new throne much higher than before so he can have a more expansive view and rule over it all.

"All mine!" Yertle cried. "Oh, the things I now rule!

I'm the king of a cow! And I'm the king of a mule!

I'm the king of a house! And, what's more, beyond that

I'm the king of a blueberry bush and a cat!

I'm Yertle the Turtle! Oh, marvelous me!

For I am the ruler of all that I see!"

You get the picture. Except for Yertle’s Seuss-given ability to speak in anapestic tetrameter, a quality rare in turtles, our president-elect seems to share a number of his ego-driven traits, especially when he makes such grandiose pronouncements, as he did at Wednesday’s news conference, that “I will be the greatest jobs producer that God ever created.”  Meanwhile, back at Sala-ma-Sond, at the bottom of the stack, a turtle named Mack mildly complains about all the weight, which causes Yertle to demand hundreds of more turtles to lift him higher still. Mack protests again:

"Your


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New index of economic marginalisation helps explain Trump, Brexit and alt.right

 

New index of economic marginalisation helps explain Trump, Brexit and alt.right

Courtesy of Andrew Cumbers, University of Glasgow

?If 2016 brought Brexit, Donald Trump and a backlash against cosmopolitan visions of globalisation and society, the great fear for 2017 is further shocks from right-wing populists like Geert Wilders in Holland and Marine Le Pen in France. A new mood of intolerance, xenophobia and protectionist economics seems to be in the air.

In a world of zero-hour contracts, Uber, Deliveroo and the gig economy, access to decent work and a sustainable family income remains the main fault line between the winners and losers from globalisation. Drill into the voter data behind Brexit and Trump and they have much to do with economically marginalised voters in old industrial areas, from South Wales to Nord-Pas-de-Calais, from Tyneside to Ohio and Michigan.

These voters’ economic concerns about industrial closures, immigrants and businesses decamping to low-wage countries seemed ignored by a liberal elite espousing free trade, flexible labour and deregulation. They turned instead to populist “outsiders” with simplistic yet ultimately flawed political and economic narratives.

Much has been said about the crisis of liberal political democracy, but these trends look inextricably linked with what is sometimes referred to as economic democracy. This is about how well dispersed economic decision-making power is and how much control and financial security people have over their lives. I’ve been involved in a project to look at how this compares between different countries. The results say much about the point we have reached, and where we might be heading in future.

The index

Our economic democracy index looked at 32 countries in the OECD (omitting Turkey and Mexico, which had too much missing data). While economic democracy tends to focus on levels of trade union influence and the extent of cooperative ownership in a country, we wanted to take in other relevant factors.

We added three additional indicators: “workplace and employment rights”; “distribution of economic decision-making powers”, including everything from the strength of the financial sector to the extent to which tax powers are centralised; and “transparency and democratic engagement in macroeconomic decision-making”, which takes in corruption, accountability, central bank transparency…
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Thank Trump It’s Friday – Markets Flatline Into Long Weekend

What a ride! 

On the whole, we've gone nowhere since Christmas.  The S&P Futures (/TF) were at 2,260 on 12/26 and they finished the day yesterday at 2,266 with dips and pops along the way but, ultimately, nothing happened.  Great news has already been priced in and the markets are now looking for justification to these all-time highs.  S&P earnings are expected to be up 15% in 2017 but most of that is because Trump is expected to cut taxes – not because things are getting so much better in Corporate America.

The Fed has been fairly consistent in letting people know they expect to hike rates 3 times in 2017 and 3 rate hikes are certainly not baked into this market.  We'll be getting earnings this morning from 6 Big Banks and the Financial sector is up 17% since Election Day – can they justify that kind of price action?  JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), PNC Financial (PNC), First Horizon (FHN) and First Republic (FRC) are scheduled to report, as well as BlackRock (BLK) and, so far, BLK, BAC and FHN missed on Revenues with FHN also missing on earnings with PNC beating and we're waiting for FRC and JPM.

In anticipation of disappointment in the Financials, we put up a nice hedging play using the Ultra-Short ETF (SKF) offset by a bank we thought would recover (WFC) in Monday's post.  We'll see how that plays out later today.  Our target is $33 to make $6,150 but, so far, no shockers.  Of course, I'm not sure you need a shocker to knock financials back from a 17% run, which knocked SKF back 25% over the same period.

Ah, there's JPM and they earnings are up 2% from last year but how does that justify the 2016 50% bull run from $57 to $86?  It's the same with BLK, who made $4.75 last year in Q4, when shares were $300 but now shares are $378 (26% more) with earnings hitting $5.14 (8.2% more).  That's pretty much the story for the 2016/2017 market – paying 3x for incremental earnings!  

Related imageMeanwhile, back in the catastrophe that is retail,
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PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar

 

PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Trading Webinar – 01-11-17

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here

Major Topics:

00:01:43 Checking on the Markets
00:05:23 Seeking Alpha Market News
00:06:27 Petroleum Status Report: Crude Oil
00:11:10 DX
00:12:20 Crude Oil Chart
00:14:12 Petroleum Status Report: Crude Oil
00:19:27 India demand
00:21:20 Oil Information
00:28:19 Checking on the Markets
00:30:32 Dollars
00:34:51 Crude Oil
00:41:47 TZA Chart and Trade Ideas
00:46:06 Checking on the Markets
00:48:53 Best time to close out TZA
00:51:16 Trade Ideas
00:52:59 USO Trade Ideas
00:55:03 UCO
00:56:55 RB
00:59:10 Dollae Reprice
01:02:02 Supply Velocity Money
01:11:32 NG
01:16:14 IWM
01:19:44 RB on Active Trader
01:21:05 GILD
01:24:42 TASR
01:27:10 Insurance
01:29:14 Cannabix Technologies
01:32:37 WYNN
01:39:09 Active Trader
01:44:25 Trade Ideas
01:46:12 Short Term Portfolio
01:46:39 5% Portfolio
01:49:43 TEVA
01:52:13 JO
01:52:57 LLY

 

Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!





Thrilling Thursday – Rally Resumes on Dollar Weakness

Down and down the Dollar goes. 

While Americans may have been thrilled with whatever it was that Trump and his lawyer said in yesterday's press conference (pundits are still trying to figure it out), the rest of the World lost faith in the Dollar and sent it to it's worst 24-hour drop since 2001 from just under $103 to $100.75 (and still falling) is more than a 2% drop in the value of the Dollar and the US indexes, which are priced in Dollars, gained half a point and everyone thinks it's a rally – idiots!  

Oil, also priced in Dollars, jumped up from $51 to $53 (and still climbing) and that's up 4% and boy did we call that one wrong yesterday for our first Futures loss of the year.   Gold was up 2%, etc. etc. – in other words, the Dollar went down and all the things priced in Dollars went up but, notably, not so much the equity markets.  In fact, if you look at the S&P and divided it by the price of oil over the past few months, you get a very disturbing trend:

In fact, since the election, we've lost 17.3% of our buying power and, for the year, 1/3 of our buying power has disappeared while the stocks have "rallied" to record highs.  This is what happens in inflationary times – your portfolio may go up in value but, when you try to convert it to Dollars and then try to buy something useful with those Dollars – you find that you've fallen very short. 

Why the sharp loss of faith in our currency yesterday?  Well, after waiting for two months for Trump to give his first press conference, he said nothing of substance.  No infrastructure program, no jobs program, no agenda at all other than repealing Obamacare and that comes with no particular plan to replace it – which could be a disaster for 20M people who will lose their health care.  

Then there are the economic issues in the US that the market has been ignoring:  Wells Fargo (WFC)'s take on the ICR Retail Conference sums it up nicely as they call the entire Retail
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Will the ‘Trump rally’ continue through 2017?

 

Will the 'Trump rally' continue through 2017?

Courtesy of Ray Sturm, University of Central Florida

So far, investors appear to be giving Donald Trump their vote of confidence.

After his election as the 45th president of the United States, the U.S. Dollar Index rallied around 4 percent through the end of the year, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average approached 20,000 for the first time in its history and the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up just under 5 percent.

So now that investors have finished their usual year-end review of where to put their money, one question is on everyone’s mind: Will the so-called Trump rally continue in 2017?

In early November, I wrote an article based on my study showing that how stocks reacted in the first few days after a president’s victory would likely determine their performance for the rest of 2016 – which turned out to be true in Trump’s case.

In a similar vein, a separate study I published in 2009 demonstrated that how a stock market performs in the January a president takes office could portend its fortunes for the remainder of the year.

So will that also turn out to be true for Trump?

‘As January goes’

In that study, which I called “The ‘Other’ January Effect and the Presidential Election Cycle,” I combined two lines of research.

First, going at least as far back as the 1940s, the so-called January effect is a well-known bias in individual stock behavior in which stocks that lose value at the end of the year tend to reverse those losses in January.

The other January effect, which I use in my study, refers to evidence published in 2005 suggesting that January’s returns hold predictive power for the remainder of the year.

More specifically, this effect claims that when stocks go up in January, they tend to continue to climb for the rest of the year, and vice versa – regardless of the impact of other usual drivers of stock market returns. On Wall Street, this effect is often dubbed: “As January goes, so goes the year.” For the rest of…
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Zero Hedge

Politicians Across America Continue Push To Make Protesting Illegal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Sarah Cronin via TheAntiMedia.org,

Indiana passed a bill on Wednesday that authorizes police officers to shut down highway protesting “by any means necessary.” S.B. 285, as it is known, obliges a public official to dispatch all available officers within 15 minut...



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ValueWalk

Oxfam Uses Absurd Metrics and Gets Absurd Results

By The Foundation for Economic Education. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Oxfam Uses Absurd Metrics and Gets Absurd Results

Every year, Oxfam releases a report meant to shock the public about the extent of income and wealth inequality. This year’s report claims that the eight richest people on Earth have as much wealth as the bottom half of the world’s population (3.6 out of 7.2 billion people). That’s certainly shocking. It’s also profoundly misleading.

Oxfam isn’t using a traditional poverty measure (such as the number of people with a purchasing-power-adjusted income of...



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Phil's Favorites

Trump's inaugural speech: Is it morning or mourning in America?

 

Trump's inaugural speech: Is it morning or mourning in America?

Courtesy of Christian Lundberg, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill and Joshua Gunn, University of Texas at Austin

President Donald Trump’s inaugural speech – a brief address, which, at 1,433 words, was the shortest since President Carter’s – combined his trademark combative populism with shades of Ronald Reagan.

Though sprinkled with calls for unity, it also relied upon creating a sharp divide between his self-declared &ldq...



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Chart School

Can the latest rally in the Dow Jones be trusted?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

After all 'bull traps', are called 'traps' for a reason! Just because price is higher does not mean it will be there for very long!

More from RTT Tv






NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote...

..“The market always tells you what to do. It tells you: Get in. Get out. Move your stop. Close out. Stay neutral. Wait for a better chance. All these things the market is continua...



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Digital Currencies

Why A Bitcoin ETF May Not Be Coming Any Time Soon

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

When it comes to the future of bitcoin, the "holy grail" has emerged as becoming the first to have a bitcoin ETF approved by the SEC.

Over three years ago, in 2013, the company of the Winklevoss twins, Cameron and Tyler, Winklevoss Capital Management LLC, launched the first proposed bitcoin ETF, the Winklevoss Investment Trust, looking to trade on the HFT-dominated BATS exchange. The SEC is expected to make a decision on it by March. A second group, SolidX Partners followed last July seeking SEC approval for its bitcoin ETF, SolidX Bitcoin Trust, which also would be listed on the NYSE....



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Big Oil May Finally Get to Drill in the Arctic, But Is It Worth It? (Bloomberg)

Far above the Arctic Circle, one of the longest-running controversies in U.S. oil drilling is about to reignite.

Bouyed by Donald Trump’s election, Republicans are pushing to allow oil exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the frigid wilderness in northern Alaska that’s been a political battleground for drillers and conservationists for decades.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Mr. President you want this to hold, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Consumer Confidence of late has continued to move higher, now reaching above the highs hit back in 2007. Long-Term S&P 500 returns are far below historical norms, when confidence is this high. We are not saying that high consumer confidence means the market is at a top!

Below is a look at the Advance/Decline line on a short-term basis.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Joe Friday Just The Facts; It could be important for support to hold, of this bearish rising wedge above.

...

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Members' Corner

How To Poop At Work?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Once again it's "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo". 

In our last episode, How to Poop On A Date? we were graced with a delicate shituation: what ever to do when your finally back at her place, snuggling in for a little "brown chicken brown cow" and you get hit with "Love Potion #2".

This week in How to Poop At Work? ,what to do when your at a big fancy pants meeting, when out of nowhere, you need to download a brown load?



...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 16th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN and  WILL CONNORS

Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>