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The Secular Extinction Of Stock Market Bears

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

This week’s Investors’ Intelligence survey responses highlight the unprecedented reluctance of financial advisors to turn bearish

 

 

As the secular extinction of stock market bears continues…

 

But – as we hear day after day on financial media – there is still a lot of negativity out there (apparently)?

 

Source: @Not_Jim_Cramer





Previewing Putin’s “Moment Of Truth” Annual Press Conference And Address To Russia

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

For those wondering how Russia managed to contain the rout in its currency today, when it dropped from highs of USDRUB 80 yesterday to about 60, and leading to the biggest stock market surge in decades, the answer will be revealed tomorrow at noon Moscow Time, when Putin’s annual address press conference will take place. As the rumor goes, both the central bank, the finance ministry and the Prime Minister, did everything in their power to stabilize the Ruble ahead of Putin’s appearance, both through direct sales of dollars as well as with the already noted 7 measures to stabilize the financial system.

And this year, perhaps more than ever, Putin’s role will be simple: restore confidence.  As Bloomberg reports, citing Mashla Lipman a political analyst in Moscow,  “This is a moment of truth. It’s no longer possible to go on in the same fashion. The economy is tumbling. The time has come for a definitive choice. Doing nothing won’t solve the problem.”

However with the live webcast starting at 4 am Eastern, it is unlikely that many Americans will be awake to watch it. So for those who are willing to wait for the cliff notes, and are happy with the preview, here are two clips prepared specifically for Putin’s annual press conference. In lieu of the just cancelled The Interview, these may be a good replacement considering their Hollywood-worthiness as dubbed by the Telegraph.

As caught earlier by Marketwatch, here’s the video that’s been running on Russia 1 television station’s website.

The narrator’s line, “A year of tough decisions,” is interjected as Putin intones, “We took upon ourselves enormous responsibilities and risks,” Again, the narrator: “And long-awaited victories” — against a backdrop of Olympic winners. And then more tough talk about “politically motivated sanctions represent a mistake and they [the West] should not have broken a mechanism of checks and balances.” And a menacing note: “Our American friends are cutting off the branch they are sitting on.”

Scenes of Ukraine, flags flying, world leaders, terrorists, explosions, missiles firing out of the ocean, a polar bear.

And in case the dramatic effect was lost with the first clip, here is another.


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Veteran EM Fund Manager Warns “The Youngsters Are About To Be Schooled”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With Emerging Market debt, equity, and FX rates coming under significant pressure once again, 48-year-old veteran EM fund manager Stephen Jen has a message for the new breed of EM fund managers, brace for more pain. As Bloomberg reports, with echoes of 1997-98′s crisis at hand, Jen explains, “many [current managers] became EM specialists after the term ‘BRIC’ was coined in 2001 and don’t know any serious crisis,” adding “they are about to be schooled.”

 

The hopeful bounce early this year after the Taper Tantrum collapse last year, has once again disintegrated….

 

As Bloomberg reports,

Stephen Jen landed in Hong Kong in early January 1997 as Morgan Stanley’s newly minted exchange-rate strategist for Asia.

 

 

If the 48-year-old native of Taiwan, with a PhD from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, sounds a little jaded now, it’s not without some reason. He says he worries that many emerging-market analysts are too young to remember the late 1990s. Instead they learned the ropes in an era dominated by the rise of Brazil, Russia, India and China — a supposed one-way bet to prosperity.

 

“Many became EM specialists after the term ‘BRIC’ was coined in 2001 and don’t know any serious crisis,’’ says Jen, who now runs the London-based hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners LLP.

 

The youngsters are about to be schooled. Jen says echoes of 1997-1998 may be at hand.

 

Investors woke up today to Russia’s 1 a.m. interest-rate increase to defend the ruble. There’s the mounting likelihood of a Venezuelan default. Stocks from Thailand to Brazil are reeling. The Fed hasn’t even begun raising interest rates.

 

Jen is bracing for more pain.

 

“At some point, the risk of fractures in parts of EM will rise sharply,” said Jen.

 

 

“My long-standing view on EM currencies is that they could melt down because there has simply been way too much cumulative capital flows,” said Jen. “Nothing the EM economics can do will stop these potential outflows as long as the U.S. economy recovers.”

*  *  *

We suspect this is the case for many fund managers currently who have been around a fe wshort years and experienced nothing but a market where every dip is to be…
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“Neoconica” – America For The New Millennium

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Thad Beversdorf via First Rebuttal blog,

I recently wrote an piece on the comprehensive breakdown of America.  In it I laid out, from an analytical perspective, the things that are leading America to an economic collapse.  But it might be interesting to take a look at a broader view of American life today.  Policy and economic discussions are useful but in them we can lose the tangibility of what it all comes back to, which is the well being of Americans.  Whether or not the national budget is 190% of GDP and whether interest rates will rise or not are important issues but only so far as they will impact the quality of life of the people.  And so let’s have a look at the lives of the American people.  Have the policies over the past 15 to 50 years led to substantial improvements in the day to day real lives of Americans?  Let’s have a look.  And while we’ve seen a couple of these more economic charts think about them in context of the other charts or other sides of life.

real income by quintile

Median Net Worth short

Median Net Worth 10 to 13 short

The above charts inform us that the bottom 80% of income households are making less than they did in the early 1980′s, and remember the number of two income households today is far greater than it was in 1980 making this a staggering reality.  However the top 20% and especially the top 1% have seen incredible income gains since the early 1980′s.  Total net worth for the bottom 80% of Americans has also been crushed.  Since 2001 median net worth for the bottom 80% is down some 30% and this is during a period where stocks have reached all time highs.  How could this be you ask??  Well this is not happenstance or simple unexplainable market forces.  Those things do not exist in today’s world.  These results are by design.

I get frustrated hearing, even from the most intelligent of people that the Fed is doing its best and that given enough time this will work out for everyone.  And that everyone is better off today than they used to be because this is America and that’s just the way America works.  But when we let the empirical data drive our perspective rather than our blind loyalty we see a very different story.…
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Caption Contest: Dry-Cleaning Edition

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Just the girl next door…

 

 

h/t @BennyJohnson





How To Save Up To 100% On “Purchases”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While likely considered blasphemy in America, land of the free-to-consume-moar, there is another way…

 

 

h/t @L_E_Ba





A Pessimist’s Guide To The World In 2015

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Skirmishes in the South China Sea lead to full-scale naval confrontation. Israel bombs Iran, setting off an escalation of violence across the Middle East. Nigeria crumbles as oil prices fall and radicals gain strength. Bloomberg News asked foreign policy analysts, military experts, economists and investors to identify the possible worst-case scenarios, based on current global conflicts, that concern them most heading into 2015.

 

 

 

Source: Bloomberg News





This Wasn’t Supposed To Happen: 7 In 10 Americans To Save, Spend Gas “Tax Cut” On Bills Not Gifts

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The lower-gas-price-tax-cut is “unequivocally good” meme is becoming more and more full of holes by the day. All that extra disposable income means moar iPhones, moar dining-out, and moar GDP… right? Wrong! As CBS reports, a new poll finds 73% of Americans will not use any extra cash from lower gas prices to buy additional gifts. What is even worse for America’s credit-growth-dependent economy – 69% of Americans will use this extra disposable income to pay down outstanding bills and expenses. The final nail in the coffin of exuberance, two-thirds of Americans say they see no benefits from lower gas prices. But apart from that… keep the narrative going…

 

While “common knowledge” is that lower gas prices must be good for everyone, as CBS reports, this is not the windfall of disposable income-driven GDP-boosting exuberance so many extrapolating Keynesian economists are hoping for…

Despite a recent drop in the price of gas, 45 percent of Americans still think the price is too high. Thirty-nine percent of Americans think gas prices will go up, while 40 percent think they will go down.

 

 

Sixty-three percent of Americans say lower gas prices have not had any effect on their financial situation, but for a third, the price drop has been beneficial.

 

 

Majorities say they will use any savings from lower gas prices to pay bills or save; fewer will pay off credit cards, do home repairs, spend more on holiday gifts, or travel more.

 

 

Americans are now more skeptical that the president can have an impact on the price of gas. Most Americans – 53 percent – think the price of gas is beyond the control of the president.

*  *  *

So of course – these facts about American consumers do not compute with how the textbooks say it should all work… but we should ignore reality and believe in hope for now.





Socialist On The Line Caption Contest

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

A busy day for The White House phone lines… If Cuba is “good” socialism and Venezuela is “bad” socialism, what does that make America?

 





The Fracturing Energy Bubble Is the New Housing Crash

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

Let’s see. Between July 2007 and January 2009, the median US residential housing price plunged from $230k to $165k or by 30%. That must have been some kind of super “tax cut”.

In fact, that brutal housing price plunge amounted to a $400 billion per year “savings” at the $1.5 trillion per year run-rate of residential housing turnover. So with all that extra money in their pockets consumers were positioned to spend-up a storm on shoes, shirts and dinners at the Red Lobster.

Except they didn’t.  And, no, it wasn’t because housing is a purported  “capital good” or that transactions are largely “financed” at upwards of 85% leverage ratios. None of those truisms changed consumer incomes or spending power per se.

Instead, what happened was the mortgage credit boom came to a thundering halt as the subprime default rates became visible. This abrupt halt to mortgage credit expansion, in turn, caused the whole chain of artificial economic activity that it had funded to rapidly evaporate.

And it was some kind of debt boom. The graph below is for all types of mortgage credit including commercial mortgages, and appropriately so. After all, the out-of-control strip mall construction during that period, for example, was owing to the unsustainable boom in home construction—especially the opening of “new communities” in the sand states by the publicly traded homebuilders trying to prove to Wall Street they were “growth machines”.

Soon Scottsdale AZ and Ft Myers FL were sprouting cookie cutter strip malls to host “new openings” for all the publicly traded specialty retail chains and restaurant concepts—–along with those lined-up in a bulging IPO pipeline. These step-children of the mortgage bubble were also held to be mighty engines of “growth”.  Jim Cramer himself said so—-he just forgot to mention what happens when the music stops.

A similar kind of credit bubble chain materialized in the hospitality segment. As the mortgage debt spiral accelerated, households began tapping their homes ATM machines through a process called cash-out finance or MEW (mortgage equity withdrawal).  At the peak of the borrowing frenzy in 2006-2007, the MEW rate was in the order of $500-$800 billion annually. Accordingly, upwards of 10% of household DPI (disposable personal income) was accounted for not by rising wages and salaries or even by more generous taxpayer financed transfer payments from Washington.

Actually, it was far easier than that.  American families just hit their home ATM cash button , and applied the proceeds to bigger, better and longer vacations, among other things. Soon, hotel and
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Phil's Favorites

Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Part X)

Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Part X)

Interest rates, oil prices, earnings, GDP, wars, peace, terrorism, inflation, monetary policy, etc. -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market

By Elliott Wave International

You may remember that after the 2008-2009 crash, many called into question traditional economic models. Why did they fail?  And more importantly, will they warn us of a new approaching doomsday, should there be one?

This series gives you a well-researched answer. Here is the conclusion of this 10-part series.

Myth #10: "Central banks and government policies control the ...



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Zero Hedge

The Secular Extinction Of Stock Market Bears

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

This week's Investors' Intelligence survey responses highlight the unprecedented reluctance of financial advisors to turn bearish...

 

 

As the secular extinction of stock market bears continues...

 

But - as we hear day after day on financial media - there is still a lot of negativity out there (apparently)?

 

Source: @Not_Jim_Cramer

...

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Chart School

Relief Bounce in Markets

Courtesy of Declan.

Those who took advantage of markets at Fib levels were rewarded.  However, this looked more a 'dead cat' style bounce than a genuine bottom forming low.  This can of course change, and one thing I will want to see is narrow action near today's high. Volume was a little light, but with Christmas fast approaching I would expect this trend to continue.

The S&P inched above 2,009, but I would like to see any subsequent weakness hold the 38.2% Fib level at 1,989.


The Nasdaq offered itself more as a support bounce, with a picture perfect play off its 38.2% Fib level. Unlike the S&P, volume did climb in confirmed accumulation. The next upside c...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Digital Currencies

Chart o' the Day: Don't "Invest" in Stupid Sh*t

Joshua commented on the QZ article I posted a couple days ago and perfectly summarized the take-home message into an Investing Lesson. 

Chart o’ the Day: Don’t “Invest” in Stupid Sh*t

Courtesy of 

The chart above comes from Matt Phillips at Quartz and is a good reminder of why you shouldn’t invest in s...



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Insider Scoop

Pivotal Research Upgrades Twitter & Google, Finds Both Are Undervalued By 20%

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Analysts at Pivotal Research Group on Wednesday upgraded shares of Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR) from Hold to Buy.

Analyst Brian Wieser finds both companies are currently undervalued by 20 percent.

Shares of Google were recently up 1.5 percent at around $503.

Shares of Twitter were up 1.6 percent at $35.63.

...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of December 15th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Energy sector rains on bulls' parade, but skies may clear soon

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stocks have needed a reason to take a breather and pull back in this long-standing ultra-bullish climate, with strong economic data and seasonality providing impressive tailwinds -- and plummeting oil prices certainly have given it to them. But this minor pullback was fully expected and indeed desirable for market health. The future remains bright for the U.S. economy and corporate profits despite the collapse in oil, and now the overbought technical condition has been relieved. While most sectors are gathering fundamental support and our sector rotation model remains bullish, the Energy sector looks fundamentally weak and continues to ran...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

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Option Review

SPX Call Spread Eyes Fresh Record Highs By Year End

Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...



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Market Shadows

Official Moves in the Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio

By Ilene 

I officially bought 250 shares of EZCH at $18.76 and sold 300 shares of IGT at $17.09 in Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio yesterday (Fri. 11-21).

Click here for Thursday's post where I was thinking about buying EZCH. After further reading, I decided to add it to the virtual portfolio and to sell IGT and several other stocks, which we'll be saying goodbye to next week.

Notes

1. th...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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