Archive for the ‘Immediately available to public’ Category

US Oil Rig Count Rises At Fastest Rate Since Jan 2010

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With inventories once again on the rise, demand set to seasonally tumble, and production on the rise, the lagged response to the bounce in crude prices continues in the US oil rig count, rising 3 last week to 374. This is the 8th rig count rise in the last 9 weeks. The 58 rig rise (+18% off the lows) is the fastest since Jan 2010. Oil prices had melted up all day (despite record OPEC production) as the USD weakened, and extended gains despite the rig count rise.

  • *U.S. GAS RIG COUNT DOWN 2 TO 86 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS
  • *U.S. OIL RIG COUNT UP 3 TO 374 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS

The lagged oil price continues to lead the rig count…

And the response in oil prices (having bounced off the 200DMA), but the USD remains key today…

Charts: Bloomberg





The New York Times Had Trouble Fact-Checking Hillary’s Speech – Here’s Why

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

While Hillary Clinton’s acceptance speech emphasized “I sweat the details of policy,” The New York Times is forced to admit as it began its fact-checking, she delivered a speech that was remarkably without hard facts

Much of her address was a mix of descriptions of her upbringing, assertions of her opinions and generalized attacks on Donald J. Trump. She talked about marching “toward a more perfect union” and said Mr. Trump “doesn’t like talking about his plans.” And even when she said “I love talking about mine,” she offered few concrete numbers or assertions to examine. Instead, she spoke in general terms about making “college tuition-free for the middle class” and giving “a boost” to small businesses.

There were, however, a few factual assertions that could be checked — so we did:

CLAIM: “Children like Ryan kept me going when our plan for universal health care failed, and kept me working with leaders of both parties to help create the Children’s Health Insurance Program that covers eight million kids in our country.”

FACT CHECK: This is true. Mrs. Clinton has at times claimed full credit for the program. But by saying in the speech that she “worked with leaders of both parties to help create” the program, her statement fits with the facts. And the health insurance program does currently serve 8.1 million children, according to Medicaid.

CLAIM: “Our economy is so much stronger than when they took office. Nearly 15 million new private-sector jobs.”

FACT CHECK: This is true. Since early 2010, when the economy stopped losing jobs every month, 14.8 million jobs have been added in the longest streak of private-sector job growth in history. Critics say job growth would have been higher if a different set of economic policies were in place, but that is impossible to prove.

CLAIM: There are now “20 million more Americans with health insurance.”

FACT CHECK: This is largely true. According to a recent report by the Department of Health and Human Services, about 20 million Americans have gained health coverage under the Affordable Care Act from its passage in 2010 to early 2016. However, critics argue that the law has caused premiums to


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Get Ready For America’s New $29 Trillion Debt

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

According to Jacques Necker, everything was just fine.

The year was 1781, and Necker, France’s finance minister, had just published a report called Compte Rendu au Roi, an accounting of French public finances.

Necker’s report showed that, despite extraordinary public services and military spending, France had a net credit position of +10 million livres.

In other words, the country was in perfect fiscal health.

It turns out that Necker had cooked the books.

Rather than being 10 million on the positive side, France had racked up 520 million livres worth of debt and could no longer afford to pay interest.

France had spent decades accumulating prodigious debts. They built monuments, parks, and splendid cities that still inspire awe today.

They explored the world and expanded their empire. They engaged in almost constant military conquest in far-away lands.

This all came at great cost. But it never seemed to matter.

The French government knew they were the world’s dominant superpower, and they overspent their national income as if it were their divine privilege to do so.

As William Olphus describes in his book Immoderate Greatness: Why Civilizations Fail, the French “tended to see the natural world as cornucopian– that is, as a banquet on which they were free to gorge without limit.”

Nearly all superpowers see the world in this way. ‘We’re #1 therefore we no longer have to be fiscally prudent.’

Sir John Glubb, having seen his own British Empire fade as the world’s superpower throughout the 20th century, wrote The Fate of Empires in 1978.

Glubb argues that great civilizations start with an Age of Pioneers– those who work hard and build wealth.

It then progress rapidly through an Age of Commercial Expansion, Affluence, and Intellect, before decaying in an Age of Decadence in which the entire society feels entitled to a level of wealth that they neither earned nor can longer afford.

Even when faced with obvious fiscal realities, they make no changes.

Only when a crisis erupts does the society demand action. And of course, at that point, it’s too late.

Such was the case of France in the late 1700s– a situation so desperate that the finance minister resorted to all-out lies in order to conceal their true condition.

Most of the West is in this position today–


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Debbie Wasserman Schultz Reappears: “I Took One For The Team”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

"Here's Debbie." Like a scene from The Shining, she's back. Having been utterly exposed as the Sanders-screwing, Clinton-colluding primary-rigger by the DNC's leaked emails, Wasserman Schultz made her first public appearance since her 'resignation' telling the National Jewish Democratic Council that "sometimes you just have to take one for the team." Our question – which team is that?

As The Hill reports,

Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the outgoing chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), said Thursday that "sometimes you just have to take one for the team."

"This has been a difficult week, there's no question about it," Wasserman Schultz said in remarks at a reception hosted by the National Jewish Democratic Council, the first time she's spoken publicly since announcing she would step down as chairwoman.

"It has been a remarkable team effort, and you know sometimes you just have to take one for the team, and that's OK, it's OK," she said with a smile.

Our simple question is – exactly what team is that Debbie? Are you not supposed to represent the 'people' who prefer a 'Democratic' party politik? Just ask the Sanders' supporters… were they on the 'team'?





New York Fed 3rd Quarter GDP Nowcast 2.5%; I’ll Take the Under

Courtesy of Mish.

The FRBNY staff Nowcast of GDP Growth for the third quarter of 2016 remains essentially unchanged at 2.5%.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for the third quarter will occur after the BEA’s release of the “Underlying Detail” tables of the annual revisions, between August 2 and August 5.

Nowcast 2016-07-29A

I’ll Take the Under

With 2.5% as the current over/under line, I’ll take the under, way under.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock


Original article here.





Q2 Real GDP Per Capita: Less Than Half the Headline Real GDP

Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.

The Advance Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 1.2 percent, up from 1.1 percent in the Q1 Third Estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the data is less than half the headline number at 0.53 percent. The 10-year moving average illustrates that US economic growth has slowed dramatically since the last recession.

Earlier today we learned that the Advance Estimate for Q2 real GDP came in at 1.2 percent (rounded from 1.22 percent), a rather shocking miss from the mainstream expectation of 2.6 percent. With a per-capita adjustment, the data series is essentially cut in half at 0.53 percent.

Here is a chart of real GDP per capita growth since 1960. For this analysis we’ve chained in today’s dollar for the inflation adjustment. The per-capita calculation is based on quarterly aggregates of mid-month population estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which date from 1959 (hence our 1960 starting date for this chart, even though quarterly GDP has is available since 1947). The population data is available in the FRED series POPTHM. The logarithmic vertical axis ensures that the highlighted contractions have the same relative scale.

The chart includes an exponential regression through the data using the Excel GROWTH function to give us a sense of the historical trend. The regression illustrates the fact that the trend since the Great Recession has a visibly lower slope than long-term trend. In fact, the current GDP per-capita is 10.3% below the pre-recession trend.

GDP per Capita Linear

The real per-capita series gives us a better understanding of the depth and duration of GDP contractions. As we can see, since our 1960 starting point, the recession that began in December 2007 is associated with a deeper trough than previous contractions, which perhaps justifies its nickname as the Great Recession.

Quarterly GDP Compounded Annual Rate of Change

The standard measure of GDP in the US is expressed as the compounded annual rate of change from one quarter to the next. The current real GDP is 1.2 percent. But with a per-capita adjustment, the data series is lower at 0.53 percent. The 10-year moving average illustrates that US economic growth has slowed dramatically since the last recession.

Quarterly GDP per Capita

Year-Over-Year (YoY) GDP Percent Change and Recession Risk

Economists and…
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S&P Hits Record High After Worst Annual GDP Since 2010

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Nothing else matters… “bad news is great news”

A sprinkling of VIX smashing, some algo-driven oil flares, ignore Yen – that’s last week’s news, and the worst annual GDP growth since 2010… a perfect recipe for record high stocks prices.

Now what though? VIX bounced as we hit high stops.





Terrible News Is Great News – Traders Buy Everything After GDP Disappointment

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Nothing else matters… “bad news is great news”

The QE Trade is back… buy everything…

And sell Dollars…

A sprinkling of VIX smashing, some algo-driven oil flares, ignore Yen – that’s last week’s news, and the worst annual GDP growth since 2010… a perfect recipe for record high stocks prices.

Now what though? VIX bounced as we hit high stops.





Peter Schiff Slams The Fed’s ‘Loud Talk, No Stick’ Policy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Peter Schiff via Euro Pacific Capital,

Theodore Roosevelt’s famous mantra “speak softly and carry a big stick” suggested that the United States should seek to avoid creating controversies and expectations through loose or rash pronouncements, but be prepared to act decisively, with the most powerful weaponry, when the time came. More than a century later, the Federal Reserve has stood Teddy’s maxim on its head. As far as Janet Yellen and her colleagues at the Fed are concerned, the Fed should speak as loudly, frequently, and as circularly as possible to conceal that they are holding no stick whatsoever.

Roosevelt’s “stick” was America’s military might, which in his day largely boiled down to the U.S. Navy, which he had enlarged and modernized. To demonstrate to a potential adversary that he was prepared to use these weapons, Roosevelt sent the fleet around the world in a massive show of force. However, he took care to couch the expedition in soothing rhetoric. He even ordered the battleships to be painted white to create the impression that they were angels of mercy rather than instruments of power. The combination proved effective. America’s global influence increased dramatically during his presidency even though few shots were fired.

The “sticks” that Janet Yellen is supposedly ready to employ are interest rate increases that are needed to help normalize the economy, fight inflation, and to stockpile ammunition to combat the next recession. Yet, in the last decade interest rates have essentially been fixed at zero. In fact, since the end of 2008 the Fed has raised rates a grand total of once…last December, by just one quarter of a percent. But what they have lacked in action they have more than made up for with torrents of talk. As a result of this “Loud Talk Policy,” American economic prestige in the 21st Century has fallen faster than it rose in the Roosevelt presidency.

Ever since the Fed finally wound down its quantitative easing programs back in 2014, the big question became when it would “normalize” interest rates, bringing them back to the three to four per cent levels that had been in place for much of the past century. Over that time, the Fed has issued countless statements, both officially and unofficially, that discussed why, when, and how fast it will raise


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GDP Revisions 2013-2015 by Quarter

Courtesy of Mish.

Every year in July, the BEA releases a set of annual revisions.

As noted previously, a portion of those revisions are related to a construction spending data error that goes back ten years.

Let’s take a look at the revisions.

GDP as Revised

GDP 2016-07-29

  • 2013 Q1: +0.9 percentage points
  • 2013 Q2: -0.3 percentage points
  • 2013 Q3: +0.1 percentage points
  • 2013 Q4: +0.2 percentage points
  • 2014 Q1: -0.3 percentage points
  • 2014 Q2: -0.6 percentage points
  • 2014 Q3: +0.7 percentage points
  • 2014 Q4: +0.2 percentage points
  • 2015 Q1: +1.4 percentage points
  • 2015 Q2: -1.3 percentage points
  • 2015 Q3: unchanged
  • 2015 Q4: -0.5 percentage points

Because of construction errors I was pretty sure 2015 would be revised lower and I expected 2014 to go up. The latter appears to be flat.

For 2013, upward revisions to inventory investment, exports, and residential and nonresidential fixed investment were partly offset by a downward revision to personal consumption expenditures (PCE).

For 2014, a downward revision to inventory investment, an upward revision to imports, and a downward revision to state and local government spending were offset by upward revisions to exports, PCE, and residential fixed investment.


Continue reading here…





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

US Oil Rig Count Rises At Fastest Rate Since Jan 2010

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With inventories once again on the rise, demand set to seasonally tumble, and production on the rise, the lagged response to the bounce in crude prices continues in the US oil rig count, rising 3 last week to 374. This is the 8th rig count rise in the last 9 weeks. The 58 rig rise (+18% off the lows) is the fastest since Jan 2010. Oil prices had melted up all day (despite record OPEC production) as the USD weakened, and extended gains despite the rig count rise.

  • *U.S. GAS RIG COUNT DOWN 2 TO 86 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS
  • *U.S. OIL RIG COUNT UP 3 TO 374 , BAKER H...


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Phil's Favorites

New York Fed 3rd Quarter GDP Nowcast 2.5%; I'll Take the Under

Courtesy of Mish.

The FRBNY staff Nowcast of GDP Growth for the third quarter of 2016 remains essentially unchanged at 2.5%.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for the third quarter will occur after the BEA’s release of the “Underlying Detail” tables of the annual revisions, between August 2 and August 5.

I’ll Take the Under

With 2.5% as the current over/under line, I’ll take the under, way under.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

...



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Chart School

Q2 Real GDP Per Capita: Less Than Half the Headline Real GDP

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

The Advance Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 1.2 percent, up from 1.1 percent in the Q1 Third Estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the data is less than half the headline number at 0.53 percent. The 10-year moving average illustrates that US economic growth has slowed dramatically since the last recession.

Earlier today we learned that the Advance Estimate for Q2 real GDP came in at 1.2 percent (rounded from 1.22 percent), a rather shocking miss from the mainstream expectation of 2.6 percent. With a per-capita adjustment, the data series is essentially cut in half at 0.53 percent.

Here is a chart of real GDP per capita growth since 1960. For this analysis we've chained in today's dollar for the inflation adjustment. Th...



more from Chart School

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Why Economists Are Better Than Markets at Telling You How the Economy Is Doing (Bloomberg)

If you want to know how the economy is doing, trust an expert rather than the financial markets, says a team led by Paul Donovan, UBS Ltd.'s managing director of global economics.

The stock market just did something it hasn't done in at least 45 years (Business Insider)

The stock market has been really boring. 

...



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ValueWalk

NetSuite Inc Stock Soars On Oracle Corporation Bid

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

NetSuite Inc (NYSE:N) is soaring this morning as Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ:ORCL) has made a bid to buy the company for $9.3 billion. This deal has been rumored for some time but obviously few expected such a large premium or did not think the bid was certaintly coming as the stock is up about 18 percent at the time of this writing which is a lot for a tech giant. Here is what the sell side is saying.

NetSuite – analysts react

Nomura

Should the transaction take place, Oracle would pay about 9x NTM EV / revenue (based on consensus estimates for NetSuite), above the average multiple paid in our precedent SaaS Software acquisitions analysis of 6.8x . Additionally, Oracl...



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Mapping The Market

Illusion of Choice

From Jean-Luc:

Looks like we are down to about 10 companies for our consumer goods:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/illusion-of-choice-consumer-brands/

Just like banks, airlines and cable companies! 

The Illusion of Choice in Consumer Brands

Explore the full-size version of the above graphic in all its glory.

If today’s infographic looks familiar, that’s because it originates from a well-circulated report that Oxfam International puts together to show consolidation i...



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Digital Currencies

Judge Rules Bitcoin Isn't Money Because It "Can't be Hidden Under A Mattress"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Everett Numbers via TheAntiMedia.org

In a landmark decision, a Florida judge dismissed charges of money laundering against a Bitcoin seller on Monday following expert testimony showing state law did not apply to the cryptocurrency.

Michell Espinoza was charged with three felony charges related to money laundering i...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Junk Bonds at important inflection point, should impact stocks!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Junk bonds have been quality at sending Risk On and Risk Off message to the broad stock market. Below looks at Junk Bond ETF JNK over the past decade.

JNK finds itself at an important price point below and what it does in the upcoming couple of weeks could become a big influence on the Risk On/Risk Off trade.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 25th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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