Archive for the ‘Immediately available to public’ Category

Beijing Outraged As US Warship Sails Within 12 Miles Of Contested Island

 

Beijing Outraged As US Warship Sails Within 12 Miles Of Contested Island

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

The new year is barely three weeks old and already the US Navy’s “freedom of navigation” operations are eliciting furious threats of retaliation from the Chinese military.

Since President Donald Trump took office one year ago, the Navy and Air Force have increasingly sought to test the Chinese military response in the Pacific by sailing or flying within a certain perimeter – usually 12 miles – of one of China’s disputed territorial holdings in the South China Sea, according to RT.

In the latest clash, the USS Hopper missile destroyer sailed within 12 nautical miles of Huangyan Dao, a tiny island claimed by China, on Jan. 17.

As is common during US "Freeops," the US destroyer didn’t solicit Beijing’s permission for entering the waters and was subsequently intercepted by the Chinese Navy, with China’s Foreign Ministry accusing the US of violating “sovereignty and security interests” as well as posing a “grave threat” to its forces stationed in the area.

"China is strongly dissatisfied with that and will take necessary measures to firmly safeguard its sovereignty," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang said in a statement on Saturday. He also warned US forces against further "provocative moves” for the sake of“China-US relations and regional peace and stability."

The spokesman added that China has “indisputable” control over the territory, which is also claimed by Taiwan (itself the subject of a sovereignty dispute with the mainland) and the Philippines.

China’s Defense ministry echoed Lu’s tone in a separate statement on Saturday, stressing that the military will step up vigilance against air and sea patrols to defend national and regional peace and stability.

The US and Chinese militaries have had frequent standoffs in the South China Sea. Despite Washington having no territorial claims in the area – unlike China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei – it has always stressed the necessity for freedom of navigation in the area and opposed China’s claims.

Short of directly challenging Beijing in the highly-contested, resource-rich region, the US has been increasingly flexing its muscles there, staging joint drills with Japan and South Korea amid growing tensions with Pyongyang. Meanwhile, China has carried out threatening exercises of its own, sending squadrons of fighter jets flying through Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese airspace without warning.





How to Tell If Someone’s Bluffing: Body Language Lessons from a Poker Pro

By jafransp11. Originally published at ValueWalk.

When it comes to body language, it’s never an exact art. The things I’m going to suggest, they’re all guidelines. But that said there are some certain things that as a poker player I’ll look for. And the most important thing is, first of all, to get a baseline of somebody. It’s impossible to tell whether the behavior someone is showing is meaningful or not if you don’t know how they naturally behave. So the first thing I’ll do when I sit down at the table is looking at what my opponents are doing when they’re not in a hand: are they naturally quite gregarious, are they confident when they interact with the waitress, or are they naturally quite quiet and shy? How do they sit? Are they naturally closed off? Are they very languishing”—that kind of thing? And once I’ve got an idea of their baseline outside of a hand then I look to see how they deviate from that when they’re actually in the middle of playing or in a tense situation. In general what you want to look for in both poker—but also when you’re trying to figure out if someone is lying—is their comfort level, if they seem authentic. As a rule of thumb, humans are actually quite good at picking up authenticity or if someone is being disingenuous. So that’s the thing to look out for, and there are some like classic behaviors that I’ve noticed people do at the table where—if you see them suddenly making a point of making themselves bigger, where they’re naturally sitting like this and now they’re sort of puffing up, that’s more often than not a false confidence that they’re trying to show. Most people do try to stay very constant. So you really do notice a behavior, particularly against someone who seems to play quite regularly, the chances are that they’re aware of their behavior, so they’re probably trying to mislead you. But another rule of thumb that I like to follow is: the first thing you learn as a kid, usually, when you lie is “liars won’t look you in the eye,” so what do kids do to overcompensate? They’ll look you in the eye. And similarly people are very aware of their faces, this part of their body, if they’re trying to be dishonest, but what they’re
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Video: Inside America’s Deadly Opioid Crisis

 

Video: Inside America's Deadly Opioid Crisis

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Opioids kill more people than they cure. Every day in the United States, some 140 people die from taking opioids – addictive opiate-based drugs. They’ve become the leading cause of death among the under-50s, ahead of road accidents and firearms. France24's US correspondents, Valérie Defert, Baptiste Fenwick, Hayde Fitzpatrick and Romain Jany, take a look at the deadly opioid crisis.

Opioids are neither viruses nor bacteria, but painkillers. In the United States, they are prescribed in abundance and are perfectly legal for a small injury or a tooth extraction. Opioids are analgesics, highly powerful painkillers, derived from opium. But many patients become addicted to the drug in just a few days and today this medication, which can cause fatal overdoses, actually kills more people than it cures.

The death of celebrities such as Prince and Michael Jackson put the painkiller addiction epidemic in the spotlight, a scourge that permeates every US region and all social classes.

As soon as we began reporting, we became aware of the magnitude of the problem. Millions of patients have become addicted to opioids unintentionally, simply because their doctor prescribed them painkillers after an injury or an operation. Many people have played a role in this health scandal: the government and its agencies, influenced by pharmaceutical lobbies and unable to regulate themselves; the pharmaceutical companies, which concealed the danger of certain drugs, eyeing tens of billions of dollars in profits; and some unscrupulous doctors.

The situation has been exacerbated by dangerous political decisions. A recent Washington Post investigation revealed that in April 2016, at the height of the opioid crisis, and under pressure from pharmaceutical lobbies, Congress passed a series of laws easing the rules on painkiller distribution.

National health emergency

Nevertheless, as soon as he came to power, Donald Trump vowed to act on this overdose epidemic. On October 26, 2017, he declared the opioid crisis a "national health emergency". Many commentators believe Trump acted quickly to satisfy his electoral base, because those worst affected by the opioid crisis are white, middle-class Americans,…
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“Understanding Systemic Risk in Global Financial Markets”

By joniferdingcong. Originally published at ValueWalk.

About the Subject

Systemic risk is the risk that developments in the financial system will disrupt financial stability and the economy. While systemic risk has been a central concern since the Credit Crisis of 2007–2009, the history of finance shows that financial crises occur frequently and threats to financial stability are constant, requiring careful monitoring and management of systemic risk. In Understanding Systemic Risk in Global Financial Markets, Aron Gottesman and Michael Leibrock discuss the core principles and dynamics of systemic risk, as well as a real-world approach to managing it.


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About the Speakers

Michael Leibrock is managing director, chief systemic risk officer and head of Counterparty Credit Risk for The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC). He serves as chair of DTCC’s Model Risk Governance Council and co-chair of the Systemic Risk Council. He is an active speaker globally on the topics of systemic and credit risk.

Aron Gottesman is Professor of Finance and the Chair of the Department of Finance and Economics at the Lubin School of Business at Pace University. He has published more than 30 academic articles and books and has been extensively cited in newspapers and popular magazines. Gottesman writes on financial markets, derivative securities and asset management.

About the Museum

The Museum of American Finance is the nation’s only independent museum dedicated to preserving, exhibiting and teaching about American finance and financial history. Housed in an historic bank building on Wall Street, the Museum’s magnificent grand mezzanine banking hall provides an ideal setting for permanent exhibits on the financial markets, money, banking, entrepreneurship and Alexander Hamilton.

The Museum is an independent, non-profit 501(c)(3) Smithsonian affiliate creating non-ideological presentations and programs…
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What Will Rising Mortgage Rates Do To Housing Bubble 2?

 

What Will Rising Mortgage Rates Do To Housing Bubble 2?

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

Oops, they’re already rising.

The US government bond market has further soured this week, with Treasuries selling off across the spectrum. When bond prices fall, yields rise. For example, the two-year Treasury yield rose to 2.06% on Friday, the highest since September 2008.

In the chart, note the determined spike of 79 basis points since September 8, 2017. That was the month when the Fed announced the highly telegraphed details of its QE Unwind.

September as the month of the QE-Unwind announcement keeps cropping up. All kinds of things began to happen, at first quietly, without drawing much attention. But then the trajectory just kept going.

The three-year yield, which had gone nowhere for the first eight months of 2017, rose to 2.20% on Friday, the highest since October 1, 2008. It has spiked 82 basis points since September 8:

The ten-year yield – the benchmark for financial markets that most influences US mortgage rates – jumped to 2.66% late Friday.

This is particularly interesting because the 10-year yield had declined from March 2017 into August despite the Fed’s three rate hikes last year, and rising short-term yields.

At 2.66%, the 10-year yield has reached its highest level since April 2014, when the “Taper Tantrum” was winding down. That Taper Tantrum was the bond market’s way of saying “we’re shocked and appalled,” when Chairman Bernanke dropped hints the Fed might eventually begin tapering what the market had called “QE Infinity.”

The 10-year yield has now doubled since the historic intraday low on July 7, 2016 of 1.32% (it closed that day at 1.37%, a historic closing low):

Friday capped four weeks of pain in the Treasury market. But it has not impacted yet the corporate bond market, and the spread in yields between Treasuries and corporate bonds, and particularly junk bonds, has further narrowed. And it has not yet impacted the stock market, and there has been no adjustment in the market’s risk pricing yet.

But it has impacted the mortgage market. On Friday, the…
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JPMorgan: “Global Market Momentum Just Hit Extreme Levels; Profit-Taking Imminent”

 

JPMorgan: "Global Market Momentum Just Hit Extreme Levels; Profit-Taking Imminent"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

On Friday  we showed that according to the latest fund flow data, anecdotal speculation of a marketwide melt-up was indeed the case. As a reminder, earlier in the week, we discussed how  market optimism among both professional and retail investors had hit the highest level since just before the crash of 1987…

… with a recent E-Trade survey disclosed  that 8 out of 10 retail investors – the highest on record – were certain that stocks would continue to rise in Q1. Then, BofA calculated  that the 4-week inflows into equities was not only "thundering", it was the largest ever. This is the result of a massive $23.9bn weekly inflow into equities which brings the 4-week inflow to stocks to the biggest ever, $58bn as shown in the below…

and there was even some good news for active managers: the 4-week inflows to active equity funds was at a 4-year high, although the relentless market share theft by ETFs is unlikely to change any time soon, and certainly not if the market keeps levitating with virtually no volatility.

Also on Friday the S&P's Relative Strength Indicator rose to a new all time high, suggesting that as of this moment, the US stock market is the most overbought ever.

Now it's JPMorgan's turn to opine on recent market euphoria, which – in the aptly named weekly "Flows and Liquidity" report, arguably JPM's most interesting publication – it says that as of Friday, "momentum signals have reached extreme levels for the S&P" which to JPM's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou suggests that "equities are vulnerable to near-term profit taking."

Why? JPM observes that after revisiting the bank's momentum-based indicators, shown in Tables A5 and A7 below which it uses to infer how CTAs and other momentum-based investors are positioned across various commodities as well as equity indices, US sectors, bond futures and currency pairs….

… JPM noted that "momentum was approaching extreme levels in the S&P 500, along with the Nikkei as well as crude oil futures."

The tables reveal,…
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Crypto Comeback Continues; Shiller “Bitcoin Could Be Here 100 Years… Or Collapse Tomorrow”

 

Crypto Comeback Continues; Shiller "Bitcoin Could Be Here 100 Years… Or Collapse Tomorrow"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After the biggest two-week drop since 2011, cryptocurrencies continue their post-futures-expiration comeback with Bitcoin testing $13,000…


And Ripple up 80% off its lows…

Once again some headlines from South Korea were full of contradiction as there are reports that both Bithumb & Korbit, the two largest cryptocurrency exchanges in South Korea, are disabling Kookmin Bank deposits and withdrawals. Instead, they will allow Shinhan Bank (second largest bank) deposits and withdrawals. That means, Shinhan Bank will process payments for traders, and implies there is no ban looming.

For now prices are rising once again but yet another establishment type – though to be fair, he is a little less biased than most – Nobel-prize winning economist Robert Shiller, predicts the cryptocurrency will either implode or drag on, and – as always – compares the rise of Bitcoin to the tulip craze in the 17th century.

"It has no value at all unless there is some common consensus that it has value,” Shiller, who is also Yale professor, told CNBC. The 2013 Nobel laureate in economics says while “other things like gold would at least have some value if people didn’t see it as an investment,” he doesn’t know “what to make of bitcoin ultimately.”

“It reminds me of the Tulip mania in Holland in the 1640s, and so the question is did that collapse? We still pay for tulips even now and sometimes they get expensive,” Shiller went on, referring to an economic bubble in the Netherlands in 1637, when after prices frantically grew the market suddenly fell apart.

“[Bitcoin] might totally collapse and be forgotten and I think that’s a likely outcome but it could linger on for a good long time, it could be here in 100 years,” Shiller said.

The economist has previously spoken of bitcoin on numerous occasions, calling it a “fad” and saying the “story” behind bitcoin drives enthusiasm for it.  “A new form of money that… sounds extremely revolutionary and involves a very clever use of cryptography” has inspired interest among people.

Notably, Bitcoin's…
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What Best Sellers and Box Office Hits Tell Us about Success | Derek Thompson

By joniferdingcong. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Decoding Popularity

Senior Editor of The Atlantic, Derek Thompson, boils down the science of popularity. He suggests that the best way to reach as many people as possible is to appeal to their inherent outsider nature. Since the cultural mainstream is so fractured, you have to understand that – at best – you’re going to reach perhaps 3% to 5% of people. Because out of 240 million Americans, just 4% of that is 9.6 million people. Derek posits that perhaps creators shouldn’t appeal to the masses. Instead, he suggests, they should appeal to the niche.

Read more at BigThink.com: http://bigthink.com/videos/derek-thom…

I think that we have a terrible misconception about popularity. I think that often we define popularity in a majoritarian way.

We say that in order for something to be popular most people have to like it, a majority of the population has to like it.

But think about this: if a book sells one million copies in a year, it is a “runaway bestseller” that by definition 99.5 percent of Americans did not buy.

The biggest movie of 2016, Rogue One, the Star Wars film, made enough money for about 35 to 40 percent of American adults to have bought a ticket and seen it. That means the vast majority of Americans did not see the most popular movie. You could say the same for television. You could say the same for music: that lots of things that we consider popular are not “majoritarily” popular at all—they aren’t mainstream by this old-fashioned definition—instead they are cults, that culture itself is cults from top to bottom. It is increasingly in this moment now where the mainstream has been completely shattered and has been totally niche-ified that culture is cults all the way down.

And I think that in thinking about this from a marketing standpoint and you’re thinking about your total addressable market, your total addressable market is not America, it’s not the world, it’s not any enormous group of people, your total addressable market is probably really, really small. And rather than go big with the general message that you hope is going to embrace everybody, rather embrace the idea that the mainstream is dead, that it’s all cults and that you have to find your cult and hit them very, very clearly with the message that is…
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Shutdown under a unified government? Blame Trump

 

Shutdown under a unified government? Blame Trump

Courtesy of Jennifer VictorGeorge Mason University

File 20180120 110087 1cc7c1a.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

Trump on Jan. 19, 2018. AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Government shutdowns are rare.

This one is unique because the U.S. has never before experienced a shutdown under a unified government, a time when the White House and Congress are controlled by the same party.

The policy consequences of this shutdown are likely to be minimal. And, the shutdown itself will also probably be short-lived.

However, the political consequences and long-term “optics” may be significant – and are more likely to negatively impact Republicans than Democrats.

Politics are key

A government shutdown occurs when Congress and the president fail to pass required annual appropriations into law, and they also fail to pass a temporary funding mechanism known as a “continuing resolution” to keep the government funded. Without these authorizations, the agencies and departments of the federal government literally have no legal authority to spend funds – even though the law allows some “essential” government functions to keep running.

This time around, the politics of federal government appropriations are tied to the fate of two other controversial issues.

The first is DACA. Trump gave Congress six months to provide a legislative fix for the approximately 800,000 immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as children and whose legal status is in jeopardy because the Trump administration rescinded an Obama-era executive action allowing them to stay in the country. Time is ticking for these so-called Dreamers, some of whom will lose their protective status beginning on March 5, 2018.

The second issue intertwined with the budget politics is funding of a health insurance program known as CHIP that provides services to 8.9 million children.

Republican congressional party leaders tried to push Democrats into an uncomfortable vote by forcing them to choose between negotiating a solution for DACA or funding CHIP. This maneuver had the potential to score important political points for Republicans during an election year.


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Creating Bloomberg

By Akhlaqahmed9941. Originally published at ValueWalk.

An interview with billionaire founder of Bloomberg and previous Mayor of New York, Michael Bloomberg. In this interview, Michael discusses creating Bloomberg and how he made it successful. Michael also talks about New York more generally and surviving economic downturns.


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Video Segments: 0:00

Introduction 0:15

Beginnings of Bloomberg? 1:08

How did you get the idea? 4:55

Was it successful at the beginnings? 8:07

What was the New York tech scene like? 10:52

How do we sustain in downturns?

Interview Date: 28th November 2011

Event: TechCrunch Original Image Source: http://bit.ly/MBloombergPic1

Investors Archive has videos of all the Investing/Business/Economic/Finance masters. Learn from their wisdom for free in one place.

The post Creating Bloomberg appeared first on ValueWalk.

Sign up for ValueWalk’s free newsletter here.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Beijing Outraged As US Warship Sails Within 12 Miles Of Contested Island

 

Beijing Outraged As US Warship Sails Within 12 Miles Of Contested Island

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

The new year is barely three weeks old and already the US Navy’s “freedom of navigation” operations are eliciting furious threats of retaliation from the Chinese military.

Since President Donald Trump took office one year ago, the Navy and Air Force have increasingly sought to test the Chinese military response in the Pacific by sailing or flying within a certain perimeter - usually 12 miles - of one of China’s disputed territorial holdings in the South China Sea, according to ...



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ValueWalk

How to Tell If Someone's Bluffing: Body Language Lessons from a Poker Pro

By jafransp11. Originally published at ValueWalk.

When it comes to body language, it’s never an exact art. The things I’m going to suggest, they’re all guidelines. But that said there are some certain things that as a poker player I’ll look for. And the most important thing is, first of all, to get a baseline of somebody. It’s impossible to tell whether the behavior someone is showing is meaningful or not if you don’t know how they naturally behave. So the first thing I’ll do when I sit down at the table is looking at what my opponents are doing when they’re not in a hand: are they naturally quite gregarious, are they confident when they interact with the waitress, or are they naturally quite quiet and shy? How do they sit? Are they naturally closed off? Are they very languishing”—...



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Phil's Favorites

'Dreamers' could give US economy - and even American workers - a boost

 

'Dreamers' could give US economy – and even American workers – a boost

Courtesy of Amy HsinCity University of New York

Demonstrators chant slogans during an immigration rally in support of DACA. AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

Earlier this month, hopes were high that a bipartisan deal could be reached to resolve the fate of the “Dreamers,” the millions of undocumented youth who were brought to the U.S. as children.

Those hopes ...



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Insider Scoop

Wall Street Previews Netflix's Q4 Earnings: Rising Subscriber Numbers Drive Bullish Projections

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NFLX Needham's Laura Martin: Amazon Prime Price Increase Won't Affect Netflix, Roku Upcoming Netflix Earnings:...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

 

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

Courtesy of Vitaliy Katsenelson, Contrarian Edge

If you invested in the markets circa 1999, it is hard to observe the Bitcoin mania and not experience the feeling that you’ve seen this movie before and know how it will end – in losses and tears. The internet was a great idea that convinced a lot of great minds to invest capital and energy into businesses that have transformed the world – Amazon, eBay, Cisco, PayPal … the list is very long (though in fairness the list of non-survivors is even longer – but they are not here to remind us of their nonexistence).

R...



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Chart School

Short Covering Driving Gains in Semiconductors and Nasdaq 100

Courtesy of Declan.

The Nasdaq 100 breakout cleared channel resistance, the fifth significant breakout in four months. All technicals are posting new near-term highs which also meant the short generated on the tag of the rising channel is negated.


The Semiconductor Index also enjoyed a substantial breakout as short covering drove traders out of their positions. Technicals see an improvement with a relative gain against the Nasdaq 100.

...

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Biotech

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain - new study

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain – new study

Courtesy of Thomas E CopeUniversity of Cambridge

Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating brain illness that affects an estimated 47m people worldwide. It is the most common cause of dementia in the Western world. Despite this, there are currently no treatments that are effective in curing Alzheimer’s disease or preventing its relentless progressio...



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Mapping The Market

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like 'Science-Based,' 'Diversity'

By Jean-Luc

These are the policies of a theocracy, not a modern democracy:

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like ‘Science-Based,’ ‘Diversity’

The Trump administration has prohibited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from using words like “science-based,” “diversity,” and “transgender” in their official documents for next year’s budget, according to the Washington Post.

Senior CDC budget leader Alison Kelly met with the agency’s policy analysts on Thursday to announce ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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