by kimblechartingsolutions - December 10th, 2016 9:25 am
Courtesy of Chris Kimble.
Below looks at the US Dollar/Gold Ratio over the past 30-years. When the ratio is heading lower, US$ is weaker than Gold/Gold stronger than US$. When the ratio is heading higher, US$ is stronger than Gold/Gold weaker than the US$
At this time, the ratio in the chart below, has created a Power of the Pattern setup, that is seldom if ever seen.
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
A rare cluster of resistance is in play for the US$/Gold ratio at (1). Resistance is resistance until broken. If this resistance would hold and the ratio would turn lower, Gold could blast off, which would benefit Gold, Silver and Mining stocks!
What do Gold, Silver and Mining bulls NOT want to see happen? If the cluster of resistance is taken out to the upside (US$ stronger than Gold), metals could get crushed!
The Power of the Pattern would say this is not your usual test of resistance and what happens at (1), will tells us a ton about the correct metals trade going forward. If you are interested in Power of the Pattern ideas applied to the metals market, we would be honored if you were a Premium or Metals members.
To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.
by Zero Hedge - December 10th, 2016 9:11 am
Overnight the media propaganda wars escalated after the late Friday release of an article by the Washington Post (which recently admitted to promoted fake news itself in an attempt to smear other so-called “fake news” sites) according to which a secret CIA assessment found that Russia sought to tip last month’s U.S. presidential election in Donald Trump’s favor, a conclusion that drew an extraordinary rebuke from the president-elect’s camp.
“These are the same people that said Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction,” Trump’s transition team said, launching a broadside against the spy agency. “The election ended a long time ago in one of the biggest Electoral College victories in history. It’s now time to move on and ‘Make America Great Again.’ ”
The Washington Post report comes after outgoing President Barack Obama ordered a review of all cyberattacks that took place during the 2016 election cycle, amid growing calls from Congress for more information on the extent of Russian interference in the campaign. The newspaper cited officials briefed on the matter as saying that individuals with connections to Moscow provided WikiLeaks with email hacked from the Democratic National Committee, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s campaign chief and others.
Without a shred of evidence provided, and despite Wikileaks’ own official denial that the source of the emails was Russian, the WaPo attack piece claims the email messages were steadily leaked out via WikiLeaks in the months before the election, damaging Clinton’s White House run.
The Russians’ aim was to help Donald Trump win and not just undermine the U.S. electoral process, the paper reported.
“It is the assessment of the intelligence community that Russia’s goal here was to favor one candidate over the other, to help Trump get elected,” the newspaper quoted a senior U.S. official briefed on an intelligence presentation last week to key senators as saying. “That’s the consensus view.”
CIA agents told the lawmakers it was “quite clear” – although it was not reported exactly what made it “clear” – that electing Trump was Russia’s goal, according to officials who spoke to the Post, citing growing evidence from multiple sources.
And yet, key questions remain unanswered, and the CIA’s report fell short of being a formal U.S. assessment produced by all 17 intelligence agencies the newspaper said,
by ValueWalk - December 9th, 2016 11:44 pm
By Sovereign Man. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Did you know that until June 28, 2016, the song “Happy Birthday” was actually copyrighted material?
Yes, I’m serious. And I’m talking about THAT Happy Birthday, as in the song we all sing at birthday parties.
The original melody was written by two sisters, Patty and Mildred Hill, back in 1893. But instead of “Happy Birthday” they called it “Good Morning to All.”
The Happy Birthday lyrics started appearing in the early 1900s, and throughout the 20th century the song became popular to sing at birthdays.
Now, remember that a song– any song– is a form of intellectual property, just like a patent, manuscript, or software code.
And when you own intellectual property, other people have to pay you for the right to use it. These payments are typically known as royalties.
The Beatles’ song Yesterday, for example, was originally written by John Lennon and Paul McCartney in the early 1960s.
Yesterday is one of the most popular songs in history, and it’s been covered by more than 3,000 other artists, from Frank Sinatra to Daffy Duck.
But each of those 3,000+ artists had to pay a royalty to John Lennon and Paul McCartney for the rights to use the song.
Similarly, the owners of Happy Birthday were receiving royalties on their song as well.
If you ever saw Happy Birthday sung in a movie or TV show, the song’s owners got paid a royalty.
The last owner of the song, Warner/Chappell music, claims to have been receiving a whopping $2 million PER YEAR in royalties on Happy Birthday. Unbelievable.
Earlier this year a judge ruled that Happy Birthday is now officially in the ‘public domain’ and free for everyone to use.
But it’s interesting to think about an asset like that: there’s some up-front work involved in writing a song, and then you can collect royalty income for years. Decades.
That’s a hell of an asset to own.
Of course, most of us don’t have the musical talent to crank out a hit song that can produce royalties forever.
Fortunately, we don’t need to.
Artists can create intellectual property. But as investors, it’s possible for us to BUY it.
by Market Shadows - December 9th, 2016 10:08 pm
Financial Markets and Economy
U.S. oil and gas producers increased drilling activity the most since April 2014 after OPEC agreed to its first production cut in eight years last month.
Oil advanced as Saudi Arabia was said to have informed its customers it will stand by its commitment to cut production before OPEC meets with producers from outside the group to discuss reductions.
The dollar is trading near its best level of the week as a rise in dollar-yen to a 10-month high is underpinned by still-robust U.S. Treasury yields and a stock market that refuses to say “enough.”
Venezuela price regulators on Friday seized almost 4 million toys from warehouses around greater Caracas and said they’d distribute them to low income children ahead of the Christmas holiday.
Gains in consumer staples stocks, health-care companies and tech firms sent U.S. equities higher for a sixth day as the S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 Index all closed at records Friday.
Donald Trump’s election has fueled one of the broadest rallies in history as the number of stocks making new highs on the New York Stock Exchange climbed to the highest on a closing basis since May 2013.
Stocks are getting a bit pricey.
All three major indexes break though their all-time highs on a seemingly daily basis, and this has pushed earnings multiples higher and higher.
STOCKS HIT ALL-TIME HIGHS: Here's what you need to know (Business Insider)
Stocks continued to be seemingly unstoppable
by ilene - December 9th, 2016 10:00 pm
Just whom Donald Trump will appoint to various key posts in his future administration has an unbearably enticing set of moving targets for the media (until, as at a recent rally in Cincinnati, dramatic announcements are made at unexpected moments, or released in other ways). And give The Donald credit: if he has a genius for anything, it’s for dominating the news cycle in ways — from his pre-crack-o’-dawn tweets to those rallies — that simply haven’t been seen here before. And be suitably amazed that, as during the election campaign, he continues to have an uncanny knack for flooding the screens of our world with that larger-than-life figure of his dreams, Donald Trump, nearly 24/7. He's the media-made man of our — and his — (endless) moment.
Until each appointment is announced, the speculation goes on endlessly about which billionaire or multimillionaire will be included in the latest round of The Chosen. In some ways, those officially or unofficially being considered, whether appointed or not, offer us a strange window into the future Washington world of Donald Trump. Take, for instance, two oily selections touted recently as possibilities for the man who has committed himself to elevating fossil fuel extraction to a high art. Trump has, after all, already promised to make a future Saudi America independent of oil imports from the actual Saudi Arabia or any other “foe” or member of the “oil cartel,” come — if you’ll excuse a phrase that, in the context of climate change, is all too apt — hell or high water.
In such situations, it undoubtedly makes a certain sense to think about going directly to the trough. If you want someone to oversee the Department of Energy, why not, for example, consider Harold Hamm, the Oklahoma oil tycoon and 60th richest person on the planet, whose fortune, according to Forbes, rose by $1.7 billion to $14.7 billion in the wake of Trump’s election victory? (On the subject of such a possible appointment, Hamm himself has been diffident.) Or if it’s the State Department you’re thinking about and global energy policy is on your mind, why not put aside the thought of frog legs and Mitt Romney for a second and at least consider — as Donald Trump reputedly is doing —…
by Zero Hedge - December 9th, 2016 10:00 pm
Given his cabinet picks so far, it’s reasonable to assume that The Donald finds hanging out with anyone who isn’t a billionaire (or at least a multimillionaire) a drag. What would there be to talk about if you left the Machiavellian class and its exploits for the company of the sort of normal folk you can rouse at a rally? It’s been a month since the election and here’s what’s clear: crony capitalism, the kind that festers and grows when offered public support in its search for private profits, is the order of the day among Donald Trump’s cabinet picks. Forget his own “conflicts of interest.” Whatever financial, tax, and other policies his administration puts in place, most of his appointees are going to profit like mad from them and, in the end, Trump might not even wind up being the richest member of the crew.
Only a month has passed since November 8th, but it’s already clear (not that it wasn’t before) that Trump’s anti-establishment campaign rhetoric was the biggest scam of his career, one he pulled off perfectly. As president-elect and the country’s next CEO-in-chief, he’s now doing what many presidents have done: doling out power to like-minded friends and associates, loyalists, and — think John F. Kennedy, for instance — possibly family.
Here, however, is a major historical difference: the magnitude of Trump’s cronyism is off the charts, even for Washington. Of course, he’s never been a man known for doing small and humble. So his cabinet, as yet incomplete, is already the richest one ever. Estimates of how loaded it will be are almost meaningless at this point, given that we don’t even know Trump’s true wealth (and will likely never see his tax returns). Still, with more billionaires at the doorstep, estimates of the wealth of his new cabinet members and of the president-elect range from my own guesstimate of about $12 billion up to $35 billion. Though the process is as yet incomplete, this already reflects at least a quadrupling of the wealth represented by Barack Obama’s cabinet.
Trump’s version of a political and financial establishment, just forming, will be bound together by certain behavioral patterns born of relationships among those of similar status, background, social position,
by Zero Hedge - December 9th, 2016 9:30 pm
India continues to stagger from bad to worse followinhg Modi’s demonetization. With just 35% of ATMs nationwide operational, Goldman warns the shortage of cash continues to incentivize the use of alternate payments, including extension of informal credit and a return to barter systems. Addtionally, the slowdown in activity is dramatically reflected in lower tax collections and discounts offered by luxury car companies.
Goldman Sachs recently introduced their India ‘De-monetization dashboard’ in which they track the progress of the Indian government’s recent currency reform announced on November 8 via a variety of high-frequency data, including money supply, credit/deposit, interest rates, physical asset premia, real economic activity, price indicators and capital flows.
This week’s update shows that cash availability at ATMs is still low. On real economic activity, there were no major data releases this week. However, PMIs and auto sales data released last week suggested a significant slowdown in activity. Separately, anecdotal evidence suggested continued weakness in activity as shown in the lower indirect tax collections and various discounts given by luxury car companies.
Trends in Google searches for key financial terms in India
Source: Google, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Real activity indicators
On real activity, no major data was released this week. However, last week, India’s Nikkei Markit manufacturing PMI moderated in November after rising to a 22-month high in October (Exhibit 3). The weakness was across the board, suggesting softening in manufacturing activity post the de-monetization announcement on November 8. The Nikkei Markit services PMI also dropped sharply in November driven by a significant decline in new business, also indicating the potential impact of the cash shortage.
Separately, industry-wide November auto sales (Exhibit 4) showed commercial vehicle sales declined by over 18% mom s.a., car sales declined by 4% mom s.a. and two-wheeler sales dropped by 15% mom s.a. Furthermore, registrations of motor vehicle have fallen since November 2016.
Exhibit 3: India’s composite PMI declined sharply in November led by weak services PMI
(December data only partial month)
The latest anecdotal evidence (Exhibit 6) suggests continued weakness in activity during the fourth week post announcement of de-monetization. The slowdown in activity is reflected in lower tax collections and discounts offered by luxury car companies.
Exhibit 6: Real activity anecdotal evidence
Source: Live Mint, The Economic Times, Times
by Zero Hedge - December 9th, 2016 9:00 pm
The current controversy is different. Many people in Washington are irate over Wikileaks — not because the email were untrue but because they proved what many had long suspected . . . that Washington is a highly corrupt place full of truly despicable people. For people who make their living on controlling media and information, it was akin to the barbarians breaching the walls of Rome. So the answer is to call for government regulation to combat what will be declared “fake” news or propaganda. It is only the latest effort to convince people to surrender their rights and actually embrace censorship.
– From Jonathan Turley’s: Washington Post Issues Correction To “Fake News” Story
Watching Hillary Clinton attack “fake news” and calling for legislative action against free speech she doesn’t like got me thinking. Why is she doing this? Yes, it’s obviously related to her notorious personality trait of never taking responsibility for anything and attaching herself to an invented controversy in order to deflect blame for her monumentally embarrassing loss to Donald Trump. But there’s more going on here. A lot more.
To set the stage, we need to examine the types of people who are most jumping on the “fake news” meme. What you’ll find is that it’s a who’s who of the most contemptible and corrupt people in America. As Glenn Greenwald so accurately noted in his piece published earlier today:
Those who most loudly denounce Fake News are typically those most aggressively disseminating it.
But the problem here goes way beyond mere hypocrisy. Complaints about Fake News are typically accompanied by calls for “solutions” that involve censorship and suppression, either by the government or tech giants such as Facebook. But until there is a clear definition of “Fake News,” and until it’s recognized that Fake News is being aggressively spread by the very people most loudly complaining about it, the dangers posed by these solutions will be at least as great as the problem itself.
Just in case you think the above is an exaggeration, is there an individual in America more distrusted and more widely viewed as a compulsive liar than Hillary Clinton? The list of her outright lies
by Zero Hedge - December 9th, 2016 8:57 pm
The warm blanket that democrats wrap themselves in at night is a dream that angry white men will die off in large enough numbers so that a true renaissance of psychotic illiberals — like Jennifer Rubin — can rise to power and lead America into the next phase towards its ultimate demise. It’s a very potent and divisive thing for journalists to say, pretending to know the spirit and soul of men based upon the color of their skin. The lie, or fake news, of massive hordes of white men descending from their trailer park thrones on election night to vote for Trump, en masse, is a myth.
The same, so called racist, white men were the good folks who voted for Obama twice, once in 2008 and again in 2012 — so there’s always that.
Specifically tackling the argument of who voted for Trump, the numbers don’t lie. He received less white votes than Romney and 3x the amount of black Americans. Perhaps the very nervous and mentally addled Jennifer Rubin should set aside her confirmation bias prior to making scathing allegations about a race of people. Then again, it’s rather trendy to deride and to shame white people these days, isn’t it?
Jennifer Rubin and her ilk are perfect examples of why democrats have lost over 900 legislative offices over the past 6 years and hold just 11 governorships. The party, literally, is dying. When it comes to the discussion of race and moving on, I believe Morgan Freeman had the best public response to a journalist in recent times. It was short, poignant, and absolutely true.
Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com
by Zero Hedge - December 9th, 2016 8:30 pm
The headlines tell us that the Dow Jones is up around 1,000 points since Donald Trump won the election on November 8th. The conventional wisdom is that this shows how much confidence people have in Trump’s ability to generate a healthy American economy. The argument is that if people are willing to buy stock in American firms, this indicates their belief that those firms will see improving profits over the next few years. They then draw the conclusion that more profitable firms indicate a healthier American economy.
Although this argument is correct about stock prices reflecting an increasing belief in the profitability of US firms, it makes a major error in assuming that profitable firms necessarily mean a better economy.
The Economy Isn’t A Thing
First, it’s important to understand that phrases like “a healthier economy” are themselves problematic. The “economy” is not the thing we should be concerned about. In fact, in some fundamental sense there’s no such thing as “the economy.” As Russ Roberts and John Papola memorably put it in the music video “Fight of the Century:”
The economy’s not a car.
There’s no engine to stall.
No experts can fix it.
There’s no “it” at all.
The economy is us
Things are not “good/bad for the economy.” They are good or bad for the people who comprise the market process, specifically in our capacity as consumers. All the economy amounts to is people engaging exchanges in order to better satisfy their wants. What we should care about is whether or not people are able to better satisfy those wants.
And “better satisfy” here means not just more and better goods and services, but at cheaper prices too. Lower prices mean that consumers have income left over to purchase goods they otherwise couldn’t, enabling them to better satisfy their wants by satisfying more of them.
In a genuinely free market, the profitability of firms is a good reflection of their ability to better satisfy the wants of consumers. Our willingness to pay for their goods and services reflects the fact that we receive value from those products, so their profits are at least a general signal of having created that value and satisfied consumer wants.