Archive for the ‘Immediately available to public’ Category

Is This The Bizarre Reason Why Tesla Is Struggling To Ramp Model 3 Production?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A little over a week ago, we noted the damning – if unsurprising – report from the Wall Street Journal revealing that Tesla's massive production miss on the Model 3, after only producing a tiny fraction of the 1,500 Model 3 sedans that it promised customers, might have been attributable to the fact that key parts of the cars were still being assembled by hand.

But according to a new report from the WSJ and Automotive News this morning, the real problem with Tesla's Model 3 production might be even more basic and embarrassing…the company can't figure out how to weld steel.

What's behind Tesla's manufacturing woes? It could be something as simple as steel.

Based on details in a Wall Street Journal report and in a video of the production line posted on Twitter by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, experts say the electric vehicle maker appears to be struggling with welding together a mostly steel vehicle, as opposed to the primarily aluminum bodies of the Model S and Model X.

The Model 3's aluminum and steel body requires more welding rather than the adhesive and rivets in aluminum bodies, experts say.

Harbour described the difference between the body of the Model 3 and those of the Model S and Model X as "partly cloudy vs. partly sunny." The change in materials would require processes new to Tesla.

"There's a big difference there. They haven't been doing a lot of spot welding on the first two vehicles because they're all aluminum," Harbour said. "The learning curve is pretty steep."

As automotive manufacturing consultant Michael Tracy of Agile Group pointed out, the clues of Tesla's steel problems came from a video posted by Musk himself of the Model 3 assembly line.  Referencing Musk's video, Tracy said a well functioning auto assembly line would not produce the sparks seen in the video below which are symptomatic of welds spots overheating or poor alignment of components.

After the Journal report, Musk tweeted a of the Model 3 production line, which was operating at one-tenth of its potential speed. In the video, sparks fly as two robotic arms assemble parts of the vehicle frame. He


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“We Don’t Know How To Replace The Vast Gold Deposits Of The Past”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Christoff Gisiger via Finanz und Wirthschaft,

Pierre Lassonde, chairman of Franco-Nevada, expects production in the gold mining sector to decline significantly and foresees a price push for the yellow metal.

Few people have achieved more success in the mining business than Pierre Lassonde. The savvy Canadian is the co-founder and chairman of Toronto based Franco-Nevada (FNV 99.91 -0.94%) and pioneered the royalty business model in the gold mining sector based on the model used in the oil-and-gas industry. For investors this strategy has paid off golden returns. Today however, Mr. Lassonde points out that the gold industry hasn’t made any large discoveries for years which will put heavy upward pressure on prices in the years to come. He also thinks that US President Donald Trump is good for the yellow metal and that investors will fare better with gold than with stocks.

Mr. Lassonde, after a few difficult years gold seems to get its shine back. What’s next for the gold price?

Right now, there is more demand for paper gold than for physical gold. For instance, when you look at the refineries in Switzerland they will tell you that they’ve got the bouillon but they’re not busy. It’s not like a year and half ago when they had no stock and the gold bars basically were flying off their shelf the minute they were produced. So the pressure is in the paper gold market, the futures market.

What’s the reason for that?

Part of the recent strength of gold is what I call a risk premium on the world. There is a lot of speculation that has to do with the tensions around North Korea and President Trump. I don’t have a personal relationship with Mr. Trump but I know the man a little bit. When he was elected, my prediction was that he was going to tie up the US administration in a knot because he’s totally unpredictable. Nobody knows where he’s going and you cannot run a country that way.

And what does this have to do with gold?

Anyone else in the Oval Office would not make such outlandish statements as Mr. Trump makes. Gold is benefiting from that. After


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Myths About Bitcoin That Must Die

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Marcuss via ValueWalk.com,

If you know anyone who spent some time in the United States in the 1970s and 1980s (or if you did), ask him or her about Life cereal, Mikey, and pop rocks.

You may get a look of bewilderment. Or, you may get a knowing chuckle and an “Oh yeah, what happened to him?”

To briefly explain… in a television commercial (back when everyone watched the same half-dozen TV channels), a cute boy named Mikey is urged to try a sugary breakfast cereal concoction called Life. To the amazement of the older doubting Thomases egging him on, Mikey approved of Life, spawning the catchphrase, “He likes it!”

Then – years later – the rumor surfaced that the actor who played Mikey had (after surviving Life cereal) eaten an bag of Pop Rocks candy, which were little candies that snapped and crackled on your tongue, chased by a can of Coca Cola. And, word was, little Mikey’s stomach exploded from the mixture of the two heavily carbonated substances. It was a story that had just the right mix of  gossip, speculation and shock value to take on a life of its own.

Of course, it never happened. (Mikey grew up to become an ad executive.) But it was a good story, and one that destroyed the Pop Rocks industry. (You can read more about Mikey and what actually happened to him here.)

I bring up Mikey because the world of bitcoin is plagued by similiarly silly – and pernicious – rumors and misinformation. But while Mikey/Life cereal/Pop Rocks mythology was (mostly) harmless fun, bitcoin mistruths can cost you money… in the form of big opportunity cost.

The truth is, a lot of what you read about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is simply wrong. I’ve seen articles in the likes of the Wall Street Journal that are factually incorrect. And now that the bitcoin price has soared above US$5,000 – the media seems determined to  “warn” investors about the dangers of bitcoin.

(With Stansberry Research, we’re going to be holding a webinar on Wednesday night (US EST)/Thursday morning (Asia) that are going to


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Here’s How Much Each HSBC Trader Made In Their FX Front-Running Scheme

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last week we wrote about how some former HSBC FX traders, led by Mark Johnson, orchestrated a carefully crafted plan to front-run a massive buy order for British Pounds using the code phrase "my watch is off.

Now, courtesy of court filings in a British case to extradite one of the participants, Stuart Scott, we learn exactly how much each HSBC trader made for his trading book in the illicit scheme that netted a total of $8 million in profits.  Per Bloomberg:

"The defendant personally obtained over $500,000 profit," the U.S. Justice Department, represented by British lawyer Mark Summers, said in written arguments prepared for the hearing. "The offenses of which he is accused are highly serious. They involve a systematic and organized conspiracy to defraud, committed in breach of trust."

Scott was charged, along with his ex-boss Mark Johnson, by the Justice Department in July 2016 with using insider knowledge to front-run a $3.5 billion currency deal by Cairn Energy Plc that made the bank $8 million. Johnson is on trial in New York and a jury there could begin deliberations this week.

Here's how everyone else made out per the DOJ:
 

Trading Gains

For those who haven't followed this particular story, Mark Johnson was arrested at New York’s Kennedy Airport in 2016 before he could return to the U.K. following a nearly 3-year investigation into efforts on the part of several large investment banks to rig FX markets but Stuart Scott has remained free at his home in the London suburbs pending the outcome of the extradition proceedings.  Per Bloomberg:

Mark Johnson, HSBC’s global head of foreign exchange cash trading in London, was taken into custody at John F. Kennedy International Airport Tuesday and is scheduled to appear before a judge in federal court in Brooklyn Wednesday morning, said the people, who asked not to be named because the case hasn’t been made public. He’s charged with conspiracy to commit wire fraud, the people said.

According to Bloomberg, Johnson’s arrest comes more than a year after five global banks pleaded guilty to charges related to the rigging of currency benchmarks. HSBC, which wasn’t part


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VIX Shorts Hit New Record High As S&P Surpasses 2017′s Most Bullish Forecast

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

At the start of 2017, the most optimistic strategist forecast the S&P 500 at 2,500 by year-end.

S&P Year-End forecasts as of 1/6/17…

In the last few weeks, the market has not only surpassed that most-exuberant guess…

As Bloomberg notes, despite two strategists upgrading their targets on Friday, professional prognosticators are hardly raging bulls: At 2,524, their average estimate represents a 1% decline in the benchmark gauge.

But as it has melted up from there, investors are entirely unafraid as traders extend their VIX shorts to a new record high…

Additionally, the number of VIX contracts outstanding just hit a fresh record. Wagering on equity swings has become increasingly popular this year as the gauge of stock swings heads for its lowest ever annual average. While the VIX is up this month, history shows that it tends to fall in the fourth quarter.

So what now? RCMAlternatives.com has developed the following nifty flowchart of just how to proceed from here…





Kobe Steel Scandal Goes Nuclear: Company Faked Data For Decades, Had A “Fraud Manual”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last week we reported that in the latest instance of criminal Japanese corporate malfeasance, Japan's third-biggest steel producer admitted falsifying data about the quality of steel, aluminum, copper, iron powder and other products it sold to customers across virtually every single industry. The news sent the company's stock tumbling 43% from levels before the scandal broke, to the lowest price since 2012.

The downstream impact was quickly felt, with selling hitting names across the global supply chain…

 

… while the NYT reported that the fallout has the potential to spread to hundreds of companies. As of a week ago, the extent of the problems at Kobe Steel was still unfolding, and prompte the Nikkei newspaper to conclude that "the falsification problem has become an issue that could destroy international faith in Japanese manufacturing."

Well, as of moments ago that tipping point was this much closer, when the same Nikkei reported that some Kobe Steel plants in Japan had been falsifying product quality data for decades, well beyond the roughly 10-year time frame given by the lying steelmaker. According to the Japanese newspaper, "employees involved in the data manipulation used the industry term tokusai to refer to shipping of products that did not meet the standards requested by customers", the Nikkei source said. Though tokusai usually refers to voluntary acceptance of such products, plants sometimes sent substandard goods without customers' consent. The word was apparently in use at some plants for 40 to 50 years.

But wait, it gets better.

Not only did the company, having already been caught, lie to shareholders and rule-abiding employees how long this illegal behavior had been going on, but – in a glaring example of corporate idiocy – had effectively enshrined and codified its fraudulent ways, as the cheating procedures eventually became institutionalized in what was essentially a tacit fraud manual, allowing the practice to continue as managers came and went.

Meanwhile, the Nikkei also reports that everyone could have been in on it, as data manipulation may have occurred with the knowledge of plant foremen and quality control managers. Some shipments even came with forged inspection


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Black Monday 2.0: The Next Machine-Driven Meltdown

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

By Ben Levisohn via Barrons

In the rise of computer-driven trading, some hear echoes of the stock market’s 1987 crash. Beware the feedback loop…

Black Monday. Although the event to which those two words refer occurred 30 years ago, they still carry the weight of that day—Oct. 19, 1987—when the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed nearly a quarter of its value in wave after wave of selling.

No one in living memory had seen anything like it, at least not in the U.S., and in the postmortems conducted to understand just how the Dow managed to drop 508 points in one day, experts found a culprit: so-called portfolio insurance, a quantitative tool designed to use futures contracts to protect against market losses. Instead, it created a poisonous feedback loop, as automated selling begat more of the same.

Since that day, markets have rallied and markets have tumbled, and still we marvel at the unintended consequences of what, in hindsight, was an obviously misguided strategy.

Yet in the ensuing years, market participants have come to rely increasingly on computers to run quantitative, rules-based systems known as algorithms to pick stocks, mitigate risk, place trades, bet on volatility, and much more – and they bear a resemblance to those blamed for Black Monday.

The proliferation of computer-driven investing has created an illusion that risk can be measured and managed. But several anomalous episodes in recent years involving sudden, severe, and seemingly inexplicable price swings suggest that the next market selloff could be exacerbated by the fact that machines are at the controls.

The system is more fragile than people suspect,” says Michael Shaoul, CEO of Marketfield Asset Management.

THE RISE OF COMPUTER-DRIVEN, rules-based trading mirrors what has happened across nearly every facet of society. As computers have grown more powerful, they have been able to do what humans were already doing, only better and faster. That’s why Google has replaced encyclopedias in the search for information, why mobile banking is slowly replacing bank branches, and why—someday—our cars will be able to drive us to work. And it is also why Wall Street has embraced computers to help with everything from structuring portfolios and trading securities to making


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“This Is The Catalyst For Everything”: Deutsche Sees Only Two More Rate Hikes Before The Fed Loses Control

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In his latest weekend note, One River CIO Eric Peters discussed, among other topics, what he thought would be the nightmare scenario if not for the current, then certainly next Fed chairman: a world in which despite the Fed's best intentions (and we use the term loosely), the Fed continued to hike rates without any perceptible increase in wages and thus, long-term inflation expectations. The result would be a failure to raise bond yields, which would provide further ammo for stocks to keep rising ever higher into what even the Fed tacitly admits is increasingly an asset bubble. This is how Peters described the ominous dynamic that would lead to major headaches for the next (and perhaps current, if Yellen remains in her spot) dynamic:

“Global profits are rising, unemployment is falling, growth is up” said the strategist. “Yet bond yields seem unable to jump.” US 10yr bond yields are 2.27%, Germany 0.40%, Japan 0.05%. “The cyclical surprise is that the Phillips curve finally kicks in, just as everyone gives in.” US unemployment is 4.2%, a 17yr low. Germany 3.6%, a 37yr low. Japan 2.8%, a 23yr low. “And the biggest structural surprise is that technology has rendered wage inflation a phenomenon for the history books.” “But if we don’t see a sustained cyclical jump in wages, then yields won’t go up. And if yields don’t go up, then the asset price ascent will accelerate,” continued the strategist. “Which will lead us into a 2018 that looks like what we had expected out of 2017; a war against inequality, a battle for Main Street at the expense of Wall Street, an Occupy Silicon Valley movement.” He paused, flipping through his calendar.  "Then you’ll have this nightmare for the next Federal Reserve chief, because they’ll have to pop a bubble.”

Today, picking up on this divergence between rising short-term rates, and an inability – and unwillingness – of the long-end to reprice higher which continues to manifest itself in a flattening of the yield curve, where today the 2s10s pancaked to the lowest since the financial crisis…

… a move which continues to be ignored by markets…


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Just own the damn robots.

 

Just own the damn robots.

Courtesy of 

…five ranks of ten machines each, swept their tools in unison across steel bars, kicked out finished shafts onto continuous belts…

Paul unlocked the box containing the tape recording that controlled them all. The tape was a small loop that fed continuously between magnetic pickups. On it were recorded the movements of a master machinist turning out a shaft for a fractional horsepower motor. He’d been in on the making of the tape, the master from which this one had been made.

He had been sent to one of the machine shops to make the recording. The foreman had pointed out the best man – what was his name? – and, joking with the puzzled machinist, had been hooked up to the recording apparatus. Hertz! That had been the machinist’s name – Rudy Hertz, an old timer, who had been about ready to retire.

And here, now, this little loop in the box before Paul, here was Rudy as Rudy had been to his machine that afternoon – Rudy, the turner-on of power, the setter of speeds, the controller of the cutting tool. This was the essence of Rudy as far as his machine was concerned.

Now, by switching in lathes on a master panel and feeding them signals from the tape, Paul could make the essence of Rudy Hertz produce one, ten, a hundred, or a thousand of the shafts.

from Player Piano by Kurt Vonnegut

***

There’s something insidious going on in the psyche of investors that deserves a lot of the credit for today’s bull market, and almost no one is talking about it. But I will.

The first American retirement system – available only for gun fighters – a colonist in Massachusetts picks up his arms and goes off to defend his settlement against the Indians. They chop off his arm, rendering him unable to participate in the only form of labor that existed in those days (manual). He can’t build shelters anymore, raise animals or


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“I’m Going To Work Until I Die”: A Look At How Unprepared Boomers Are For Retirement

By Patrick Watson, Mauldin Economics

(As posted at Zero Hedge)

Wall Street endlessly gushes about retirement. Its TV commercials show how wonderful life will be in our golden years—when we are old, yet still healthy and wealthy enough to go hang-gliding every day.

Meanwhile, out here in the real world, most working-age Americans don’t want to talk or even think about retirement. Often this is because they know they aren't saving enough and probably will have to work until they drop dead.

This is the elephant in the room. 10,000 US Baby Boomers turn 65 every day. For most, life at that milestone won’t look much like the TV commercials.

That sounds dire, but it doesn’t have to be. Let’s look at ways this problem could be solved.

But first, some more facts.

Retirement Shortfall Among All Income Levels

Lately, I’ve been working with John Mauldin to research the huge public pension fund shortfalls. But it’s not just big funds that don’t save enough—most individuals are in the same position, or worse.

Teresa Ghilarducci is a labor economist at The New School, specializing in retirement security. Here’s what she told the Washington Post last month.

“There is no part of the country where the majority of middle-class older workers have adequate retirement savings to maintain their standard of living in their retirement.”

Her research shows even high-income workers haven’t saved enough to fund comfortable retirements.

The circles in this chart show how much money people should be saving for retirement. The shortfall (the red part) is around 30% for all income levels.

The green part of the circles is what Social Security provides. The program was never meant to be a full pension, and it clearly isn’t delivering one.

Yet a majority of the age 65+ population depends on Social Security for at least half of its income.

These are sobering numbers:

  • 19.7% of retirees get 100% of their income from Social Security.
  • A full third (33.4%) depend on it for 90% of their income.


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Zero Hedge

Is This The Bizarre Reason Why Tesla Is Struggling To Ramp Model 3 Production?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A little over a week ago, we noted the damning – if unsurprising – report from the Wall Street Journal revealing that Tesla's massive production miss on the Model 3, after only producing a tiny fraction of the 1,500 Model 3 sedans that it promised customers, might have been attributable to the fact that key parts of the cars were still being assembled by hand.

But according to a new report from the WSJ and ...



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Phil's Favorites

The pull of energy markets - and legal challenges - will blunt plans to roll back EPA carbon rules

 

The pull of energy markets – and legal challenges – will blunt plans to roll back EPA carbon rules

Courtesy of Hari OsofskyPennsylvania State University and Hannah WisemanFlorida State University

Grid operators set the prices for energy markets and are structured to take the lowest prices – a disadvantage for coal and nuclear power. CC BY

On Oct. 10, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt ...



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ValueWalk

Indo-US Obnoxious Stance On CPEC: A Critical Appraisal

By Guest Post. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Since  the beginning of work on China Pakistan Economic Corridor project (CPEC),  India is quite open in opposing this mega Project and now the US has also shown its weight behind India by saying that it too believes the route of corridor passes through a disputed territory — a reference to Northern areas of Pakistan. The statement has come at a time when Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif was in Washington and held series of talks with the US officials to normalize the tense relations. This new stance has started another debate and is undoubtedly going to further damage the bilateral ties, as it is profusely obvious now that US envision a greater role for India in the region. Pakistan and China are wo...



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Chart School

Market Cycle Top?

Courtesy of Declan.

About four years ago I went to a Bloomberg hosted talk on Market Cycles. I have been wracking my brain and Google trying to find the presentation and speaker name (which was available on line) but I thought the talk interesting enough to market in my Google calendar the date for the New Moon in October 2017, which was a focus point convergence of a number of market cycles and potentially a significant market top event (the countdown clock in the sidebar). The years have since ticked by and we are not just a couple of days from the October 2017 New Moon. The market has at least cooperated by sitting at new all-time highs but whether this evolves into a major top remains to be seen. I'm mad with myself that I can't find in my pinboard or delicious bookmarks the link so all I can say is the day will soon be upon us ...

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Insider Scoop

The BLUE And The BOLD; Analyst Suggests Pair Trade Ahead Of Year-End Catalysts

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BLUE 30 Stocks Moving In Monday's Mid-Day Session Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For October 16, 2017 ...

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Digital Currencies

WTF is the Blockchain?

 

Source: TechiesPad

...

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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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Biotech

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Courtesy of Sally Ferguson, CQUniversity Australia

Today, the “beautiful mechanism” of the body clock, and the group of cells in our brain where it all happens, have shot to prominence. The 2017 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Jeffrey C. Hall, Michael Rosbash and Michael W. Young for their work on describing the molecular cogs and wheels inside our biological clock.

In the 18th century an astronomer by the name of Jean Jacques d'Ortuous de Ma...



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Members' Corner

Day of Last Dances

News today has been relentlessly terrible. A horrific mass murder happened last night in Las Vegas. (Our politician's abject failure to address gun control is beyond sickening.) And today, reports that Tom Petty died of a heart attack, followed by reports that Tom Petty is not dead, and now reports confirming that Tom Petty has passed away. 

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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