Archive for the ‘Immediately available to public’ Category

Faltering Friday – Will Oil Drag the Markets Down in August?

Will the last short seller please turn out the lights?

According to S3 Analytics, Bets against the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), the largest ETF tracking the broad index, fell to $38.9Bn last week, the lowest level of short interest since May, 2013.  The same thing is going on in hedge funds as we're well below 2013 levels in short funds – people have simply given up on the idea that this market is going to go down – and that's probably the best time to short it!  

In our Portfolio Reviews this week, we have been pressing our hedges by using about 1/4 of the money we have made on our longs, simply trying to lock in our gains as we certainly don't expect the market to make 4-7% every month – that would be silly, right?  These days, you have to wonder as the S&P is up 25% from the mid-point (not the lows) of 2015 and early 2016 (2,000) yet, as I noted in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar (Members Only, but you can see the replay here) the earnings of the components of the S&P are not matching those gains at all:

Apple (AAPL) is the top component of the S&P.  With an almost $800Bn market cap, it makes up 3.7% of the index.  In 2015 they had $233Bn in sales and made $53Bn, last year they had $215Bn in sales and made $45Bn and this year they are looking for $220Bn in sales and $46Bn in profit yet AAPL is trading 60 points higher (66.6%) than it was at the beginning of last year (after 2015 earnings were reported).  What has AAPL actually done to justify a 66% gain?  Mostly, it was drastically undervalued but, other than that – it has added no profits to the overall S&P.  In fact, it has subtracted them!  

AAPL is also the largest Dow component and $1 in share price is 8.5 Dow points (yes, it's an idiotic system).  So AAPL alone is responsible for 510 points (12.5%) out of the Dow's 4,100 point run from 17,500 (23%).  Now I love AAPL, it was our Stock of the Year in 2013, 2014 and 2015 (this year it is WPM), so I'm fine with their value now, it was…
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Japan-EU Free Trade Deal Will Rival NAFTA In Size

By FactSet. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Earlier this month, the leaders of the European Union (EU) and Japan announced that they had an “agreement in principle” for a Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement. Having taken more than four years to negotiate, this new deal is expected to eliminate 99% of tariffs between the two partners and create an economic trading bloc comparable to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in size.

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Central to the pact are the reduction of tariffs on exports of European food products to Japan and Japanese cars to Europe, as well as implicit inclusion of a commitment to the Paris climate accord.

Japan-EU Free Trade

FactSet clients: launch this chart

Announced on July 6, right before the G20 gathering in Hamburg, Germany, the partnership agreement stressed both parties’ commitment to “open and fair trade” and to rejecting protectionism. This message is in line with recent language in global economic forecasts produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development highlighting the downside risks from increased protectionism around the world.

At the same time, the announcement contrasts sharply with protectionist rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump, which became a point of contention at both the recent G20 meetings and the G7 summit earlier this year. Under Trump, the U.S. has already pulled out of the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership pact, and the new president has promised to renegotiate NAFTA, which the U.S., Canada, and Mexico signed in 1994.

Japan-EU Free Trade

FactSet clients: launch this chart

Trade Implications

Trade flows between the EU and Japan are significant. According to the IMF’s Direction of Trade statistics, the EU’s exports of goods to Japan totaled $64.2 billion in 2016, making it the EU’s fifth largest export market for goods…
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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Nears All-Time High on Spike Above Daily Chart Downchannel Resistance

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) crushed shorts yesterday, smashing above the daily chart's downchannel resistance and soaring towards the all-time high around 3000. With yesterday's massive rally, the negative weekly MACD crossover has been proved a false signal.  Odds are quite good that a sustainable longer term BTC/USD bottom was found last week, especially with ETH/USD also strongly rebounding this past week.  Some consolidation can be expected today with daily RSI and Stochastics tiring, although with daily MACD just having positively crossed, more upside can be expected early next week resuming BTC/USD's attempt to regain its all-time high.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily

Ethereum (ETH/USD) rebounded strongly yesterday, reversing Wednesday's profittaking, and reinforcing the break Tuesday above the daily chart's downchannel resistance.  Although still vulnerable in the next several weeks to more downside (as the weekly MACD – not shown in the accompanied daily chart – has just negatively crossed this past week), odds are quite good though that the weekly MACD negative crossover has been a false signal.  The ETH/USD bounce off the 61.8% Fib retrace of the rally from the beginning of the year has been reinforced by the very powerful rebound in BTC/USD this past week back towrads its all-time high.  Further offseting ETH/USD's negative weekly MACD crossover is the rallying or bottomish daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) Daily Chart

Ethereum (ETH/USD) Daily

Click here for today's technical analysis on Cocoa

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.





German Citizen Arrested in Turkey on Absurd Charges: Merkel, EU Essentially Look the Other Way

Courtesy of Mish.

As noted by the Guardian and other sources, German human rights consultant Peter Steudtner was detained at a human rights workshop on Monday with five others including Amnesty International’s country director, Idil Eser, for allegedly aiding a terror group.

In response, Germany issued a meaningless statement urging “caution” to which the Turkish foreign ministry hit back, accusing Germany of “blackmail and threats” and “direct interference in the Turkish judiciary”.

Eurointelligence is spot on with its analysis of the situation.

The situation in Turkey is very dangerous, especially now after the imprisonment of the German human rights activist Peter Steudtner on trumped-up charges of aiding terrorists.

Sigmar Gabriel, the German foreign minister, yesterday called Merkel to seek a coalition agreement to warn German travelers to be careful when traveling to Turkey. This is not an official travel warning, which would have significant consequences. It would, for example, have allowed people to cancel existing travel bookings for the summer holiday without penalty. It would have allowed travel insurance providers to exclude Turkey from the list of insured countries. It would have had severe implications for German investment in Turkey. This policy of issuing a de facto but not de jure travel warning is a rather weak response

To distant observers it must sound shocking to learn that the EU’s relations with Turkey have been almost business-as-usual. Merkel and the EU seem willing to do anything to ensure that the refugee deal with Turkey won’t collapse. The response to Turkey’s persistent human right abuses shows us how weak Germany, and the EU in general, have become after accepting the morally questionable refugee deal with President Erdogan in 2016. The EU has abandoned any pretence of having an interest in human rights, and regards the introduction of the death penalty as the only red line in EU-Turkey relations. The EU thus remains committed to maintaining the façade of a political process that could eventually lead to Turkish EU membership. We would presume that the Turkish leader regards the feeble response from Berlin and Brussels as encouragement to continue to wield the leverage he has over the EU.

The EU has abandoned any pretense of having an interest in human rights, and regards the introduction of the death penalty as the only red line in EU-Turkey relations. The EU thus remains committed to maintaining the façade of a


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Anarchists Raid Bank Of Greece In Downtown Athens

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Security measures in the building of the Bank of Greece in downtown Athens are not as good as they should be.

As KeepTalkingGreece reports, a crowd of anarchists from the well-known group Ruvikonas entered the Bank of Greece on Wednesday afternoon.

Some 20 people entered the Bank of Greece from a side entrance at 1:40 pm, threw leaflets and fled.

The Bank personnel tried to hide under the desks and behind counters, media reported.

Some of the leaflets read:

“Bank of Greece is the doorman of the Memoranda”

Police squads arrived at the Bank, detained several people in the surrounding area. The detainees are – or meanwhile were – to be set free as they are not in connection with the raid.





Visualizing The Countries Suffering Most From Low Oil Prices

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As Warren Buffet says, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

And, as Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardin details, in 2014, when oil prices crashed and burned, the tide was gone – and it was shown that too many countries were relying on frothy oil revenues to balance out their trade deficits.

A LINGERING CRISIS

Fast forward to today, and low oil prices are still causing big problems for many countries. The interactive visualization below from the Council of Foreign Relations shows how the world economies most reliant on oil exports have fared since the 2014 crash.

The end results are not pretty – and even in 2016, there were 18 economies that had breakeven prices (based on spending on imports) that were above the average oil price for the year:

Source: Visual Capitalist

The oil price crash made many oil-reliant economies more fragile, and this fragility can be triggered in different ways. One interesting case study is Venezuela, which is currently embroiled in an ongoing economic, currency, and humanitarian crisis.

BAD TIMING FOR MADURO

During the Hugo Chávez era, sky-high oil prices enabled fiscal and trade policies that subsidized Venezuelan life in many ways. That all changed in 2014, which was only one year after Nicolás Maduro took office.

Despite having largely the same policies as his predecessor, low oil prices have hammered the Venezuelan economy. Even with today’s prices, oil generates an estimated 95% of export revenues for the country. This has resulted in a disaster for the socialist nation, and Venezuela is now stuck with shortages in essential goods, crushing unemployment, a contracting economy, skyrocketing crime and murder rates, and even widespread malnutrition.

At the root of much of this, arguably, is an uncontrollable cycle of hyperinflation:

Source: Visual Capitalist

With an economy that is a runaway train, the government prints more and more cash to try to maintain the status quo. This


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Analysis: Advantages And Disadvantages Of US Seaborne Laser Weapon System

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Andrei Akulov via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

This news hits the world media headlines.

US Navy has started life-tests of the world's first drone-killing laser reported to move at the speed of light and to be 'more precise than a bullet'. Laser weapons project a coherent ray of directed photons (light) that strike their target virtually instantaneously. The massive amount of energy released from the weapon was able to down the drone by setting its wing on fire. The speed – 50,000 times the speed of an incoming intercontinental ballistic missile – makes it unnecessary to lead the target.

Silent and generally invisible, as it usually operates at an optical wavelength indiscernible to the human eye, the Laser Weapons System (LaWS) runs off its own electrical generator and needs no ammunition. Highly accurate, it is very effective when used against small, speedy targets, including incoming rockets, small drones and artillery shells. Low maintenance, high safety, and long lifespan are desirable characteristics.

The cost is «about a dollar a shot». Intended primarily to disable or destroy aircraft and small boats, the 30-kilowatt laser weapon is currently onboard the USS Ponce deployed in the Persian Gulf. It is predicted to be combat ready by 2020. A full-power hundred-kilowatt Free Electron Laser is slated for testing in 2018, and might see use on the Navy’s new Zumwalt-class stealth destroyers. The Navy plans to create 150 kilowatts lasers in more distant future.

To believe what the media say – the US has made a great stride ahead to acquire a superweapon, giving it a critical advantage over any potential enemy in the world. No doubt, the ongoing tests testify to the fact that the US Navy has achieved some progress in developing small-size laser systems capable of striking small targets at limited ranges. This is a story of success but it also calls for an objective review.

There are limitations and shortcomings.

Directed energy weapons are still in their relatively early days. The maximum range is limited as laser energy tends to diffuse in the atmosphere, especially when obstructed by sand, smoke or fog. Atmospheric absorption, scattering, and turbulence prevent


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Panama Case: Will Pakistan’s Nawaz Sharif Resign Or Get Disqualified?

By Polina Tikhonova. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Nawaz Sharif Panama Case

By Prerna goyal (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

PM Nawaz Sharif is on the brink of being disqualified, as the Supreme Court begins Panama case hearings into corruption charges.

The political saga surrounding PM Nawaz’s off-shore assets is about to flare up, as the three-judge bench of the Supreme Court began hearings into the Panama case on Thursday.

The nerve-wracking Supreme Court hearing was adjourned until Friday, July 21, with many believing that this may be the last hours of PM Nawaz’s rule. Thursday’s hearings have shown that the Nawaz family could be in big legal trouble for allegedly forging documents to prove themselves innocent of the corruption charges, which were revealed in a large-scale Panama Papers leak last year.

Ten days after the Joint Investigation Team (JIT) found “glaring disparity in the assets and known income” of the Nawaz family, the Supreme Court held its first Panama case hearing, which focused on the Nawaz family’s alleged submission of forged papers to the court.

With Nawaz’s case weakening each passing day, and his political career bleeding heavily under the pressure of legal trouble for failing to explain the source of his income, there is a high chance that the Supreme Court could disqualify the PM on Friday.

While the disqualification remains a very probable outcome of the Panama case hearings, Nawaz could also step down voluntarily amid the mounting pressure and the court warning that the Prime Minister and his family members could be sentenced to seven years in prison, a typical imprisonment term for those who submit false documents in court.

Panama Case: Nawaz And Family Facing 7-Year Jail Sentence

If the Supreme Court proves during its Panama case hearings that the documents submitted by the Nawaz family were in fact forged, the PM would be disqualified from office and himself and his family members would face jail time.

The hearings come more than a week after the final JIT report into the Panama case probe recommended filing a reference against the Nawaz family with the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) on corruption charges. While the Pakistan economy continues nose-diving amid the ongoing corruption investigation, the nation is scaring away potential investors who think twice before pouring their money into a country run by allegedly…
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U.S. Cocaine Seizures Are Going Through The Roof

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

U.S. Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) has almost doubled the amount of cocaine seized this fiscal year compared to the year before.

Infographic: U.S. Cocaine Seizures Going Through the Roof | Statista

You will find more statistics at Statista

As Statista's Dyfed Loesche notes, more than two months before this fiscal year ends on September 30 the agency has seized more than 121,000 million pounds of cocaine.

As our infographic shows, this year the greater share was seized by the biggest CBP branch, the Office of Field Operations. This arm of CBP mans all 328 ports of entry (seaports, airports, border crossings etc.) while Border Patrol officer operate out in the open between those ports.





History Repeats: The Continuing Threat To Freedom And Democracy

Courtesy of Jesse's Cafe Americain

Lately it has been popular in some circles to talk about the US being a 'late stage democracy' that has 'never been more ripe for tyranny.'

Sometimes they like to drag in Plato to give their thought pieces a gleam of higher learning and a supposed grounding in history.

But their pieces fall into that trap, that very sort of temporal vanity and self-centered preoccupation to despair that Newman notes so well in saying that "every century is like every other, and to those who live in it seems worse than all times before it."

Would you be surprised to hear that less than one hundred years ago there was an actual plot, bankrolled by some of the most powerful and famous figures of the American one percent, to use military force to depose a sitting American President and instead install a fascist in the White House who would be more compliant with their greed and lust for power?

The model for this takeover would have been similar to Benito Mussolini's infamous 'march on Rome.'

Would you be further surprised to know that some of these unrepentant financial figures then went on to help bankroll Hitler, and continued doing business with his atrocious regime even as their most vile business partners actively fought the US, their own country, in the war?

How well does this fit the efficient markets and rational actor models that so much of economic theory, and certain factions in modern political ideology, seems to rely?  If only we can get rid of government, and then people will be free to spread their natural goodness and take wing like angels. Let us free the pathological and sociopaths from external constraints, and their better natures will surely rise to the occasion. And if not, we can surely explain it to them with our economic learning.

It never ceases to amaze how many economic and social models of human behavior are based, not in history, but rather on simplistically convenient constructs and myths that serve the status quo and the power of Big Money.

A better model perhaps is to think that freedom and truth are always under threat by those who value neither more than their


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ValueWalk

Japan-EU Free Trade Deal Will Rival NAFTA In Size

By FactSet. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Earlier this month, the leaders of the European Union (EU) and Japan announced that they had an “agreement in principle” for a Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement. Having taken more than four years to negotiate, this new deal is expected to eliminate 99% of tariffs between the two partners and create an economic trading bloc comparable to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in size.

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Zero Hedge

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Nears All-Time High on Spike Above Daily Chart Downchannel Resistance

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) crushed shorts yesterday, smashing above the daily chart's downchannel resistance and soaring towards the all-time high around 3000. With yesterday's massive rally, the negative weekly MACD crossover has been proved a false signal.  Odds are quite good that a sustainable longer term BTC/USD bottom was found last week, especially with ETH/USD also strongly rebounding this past week.  Some consolidation can be expected today with daily RSI and Stochastics tiring, although with daily MACD just having positive...



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Phil's Favorites

German Citizen Arrested in Turkey on Absurd Charges: Merkel, EU Essentially Look the Other Way

Courtesy of Mish.

As noted by the Guardian and other sources, German human rights consultant Peter Steudtner was detained at a human rights workshop on Monday with five others including Amnesty International’s country director, Idil Eser, for allegedly aiding a terror group.

In response, Germany issued a meaningless statement urging “caution” to which the Turkish foreign ministry hit back, accusing Germany of “blackmail and threats” and “direct interference in the Turkish judiciary”.

Eurointelligence is spot on with its analysis of the situation.
...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Surges Above $2500 Following Goldman's Bullish Note As 'Civil War' Ends

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin is up 40% from its weekend lows as the combination of a bullish Goldman Sachs note on the virtual currency and a major sigh of relief that the potential 'civil war' over cryptocurrency's scaling solutions appears to be over (with over 80% of the hashrate currently voting for the protocol upgrade).

The entire cryptcurrency space is surging today...

...



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Insider Scoop

If The iPhone 8 Is Delayed, Will Anyone Care?

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related AAPL Contract Manufacturers Are Joining Apple's Side As Qualcomm Legal Concerns Continue The Feds Hop In The Driver's Seat...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Small Caps Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

It has taken a few days for Small Caps to make their move but today was the day the Russell 2000 joined other indices in mounting a breakout. It was a clean breakout supported by positive technical strength - putting to bed the June 'bull trap'. Watch for the second round of stop-whips with an intraday move (and recovery) below 1,430.


Other indices added to their breakouts. The S&P gapped and pushed on, backed by higher volume accumulation. Watch for a tag of upper channel resistance.

...

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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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OpTrader

swing trading portfolio - week of July 17th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Immunotherapy: Training the body to fight cancer

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Immunotherapy: Training the body to fight cancer

Courtesy of Balveen KaurThe Ohio State University and Pravin KaumayaThe Ohio State University

An oral squamous cancer cell (white) being attacked by two T cells (red), part of a natural immune response. ...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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