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NATO Jets Surrounding Russia: Before And After

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Based on the following “before” and “after” the Ukraine crisis pictures of NATO warplanes located just off the Russian border…

Before:

After:

… one can almost understand why Victoria Nuland was so eager to tell the EU to “fuck off” in her successful attemp to foment Ukraine unrest leading to the overthrow of ex-president Yanukovich, and destabilize the region, giving NATO a pretext for a major arms build up on the other side of the Russian border.

Per CNN, “There used to be only four jets ready to intercept Russian planes that crossed into European airspace. Now there are 18.” And rising.

As for what the US response would be if Russia were to park a few squadrons of Mig-35s in Cuba, Canada and Mexico, we leave that to the reader’s imagination.





The Best And Worst Performing Assets During Thanksgiving Week

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While technicals remain largely meaningless in the global centrally-planned “USSR market” (as penned by Russell Napier, who asked “Which World Has No Volume, No Volatility And Rising Prices?”, his answer: the USSR), pattern-seeking carbon-based traders still find refuge in the comfort provided by technical analysis. So for all those who believe past performance is indicative of future results, here according to BofA’s MacNeil Curry is how various asset classes perform during Thanksgiving week compared to all other weeks during the year.

From BofA:

Thanksgiving seasonals

 

Many global markets behave differently during the week of the US Thanksgiving holiday (observed Thursday Nov 27). While much has been written about US equity market outperformance around this date; less has been written on other markets. We expand upon this analysis in our Chart Of The Week. During the week of Thanksgiving, Oil (Brent), Gold, US ten year note futures and the US $ all tend to do better than their weekly average, while €/$ tends to suffer. Given this backdrop, we look for the S&P500 to extend upon last week’s break higher, while we reiterate our basing views on gold and oil. However, we are reluctant to turn too bearish on €/$. Not only does sentiment and momentum remain at bearish extremes, but the month of December is its most bullish month of the year. As such, the risk of a €/$ bear trap is too high to ignore.

 

Chart of the week: Thanksgiving seasonal tear sheet

 

 

Historically, many global markets have behaved differently during the week surrounding the US Thanksgiving holiday. Over the past 20yrs the S&P500, Brent Crude Oil, Gold, US 10yr note futures, and the US $ Index have all done better than average, while €/$ have underperformed. In contrast, Thanksgiving has had relatively little effect on $/¥.

And that last sentence is why the entire chart shown above is worthless, because if there is one asset class that is virtually assured to have the highest volatility in the coming days, it is the Yen, which will either continues its unprecedented collapse, or soar higher on short covering, should the trek to 120 (and then 145) prove to be fleeting in the immediate future.





Fear Of “Surge In Debt Defaults, Business Failures And Job Losses” Means Many More Chinese Rate Cuts

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If admitting you have a problem is the first step toward recovery, then China is making progress. The question is progress to what, because the generic answer, “another debt-fueled boom” is no longer applicable. Recall that as we noted here initially in the summer of 2013, the very reason why China finds itself in a reformist quandary is that the traditional method of Chinese “growth” – issuing a little under $4 trillion in aggregate system debt per year – no longer works as the bad debt portion of the Ponzi scheme is rising at a faster pace than the total notional of debt itself.

Which means the PBOC, which cut rates for the first time in two years on Friday, will have its work cut out for it. And in the worst tradition of “developed world” banks, Beijing will now have no choice but to double down on the very same bad policies that got it into its current unstable equilibrium, and proceeds with a full-blown policy flip-flop, leading to a full easing cycle that reignites the bad-debt surge once more.

And sure enough, today Reuters reports citing “unnamed sources involved in policy-making” (supposedly different sources than the unnamed sources Reuters uses to float trial balloons used by the ECB and the BOJ), that “China’s leadership and central bank are ready to cut interest rates again and also loosen lending restrictions” due to concerns deflation “could trigger a surge in debt defaults, business failures and job losses, said sources involved in policy-making.” In other words, China has once again looked into the abyss once… and decided to dig a little more.

The story is well-known: “Economic growth has slowed to 7.3 percent in the third quarter and policymakers feared it was on the verge of dipping below 7 percent – a rate not seen since the global financial crisis. Producer prices, charged at the factory gate, have been falling for almost three years, piling pressure on manufacturers, and consumer inflation is also weak.”

Of course, in modern economics, deflation simply means deleveraging, which as we showed last weekend, is precisely what is happening to China’s shadow banking sector every month in the prior quarter.

 

And so, since deleveraging in China, which at least on goalseeked paper…
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Guest Post: Why Monetizing Debt Could End In Revolutions

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Luke Eastwood,

Much has been made of the decision by the Japanese government to inject another $700 billion into their ailing economy. While some may see this as an earnest attempt to save Japan from further stagnation and deflation, even some of the mainstream media (e.g. Bloomberg) are questioning the wisdom of this reckless act.

Over the last few decades, since the crash of 1989, Japan has injected billions into its banks and stock-market to help its economy but all of it has been a miserable failure. America has, via the Federal Reserve, increased its national debt to formerly unthinkable numbers with almost no effect on its ailing economy. Most of Europe has huge public debt as a result of bank bailouts, but still suffers from stagnating or shrinking economies.

In fact, any privately owned central bank that has undertaken monetization policies (creating more public debt) has failed to improve their nation’s economy and merely created a transfer of wealth from the general public to corporate hands.

Of course, government owned banks such as in China and Russia are and do take somewhat different actions given that they are owned by the public (state owned) and not private individuals or corporate entities. Therein lies the crux of the matter – private ownership means private interests, therefore the needs of the country and the populace are of no concern at all.

All that the Fed, BoJ (Bank of Japan), the Bank of England etc. have been concerned with is the preservation of private banks and the continued propping up of stock markets. None of these institutions really care about the real-world economy, real-world inflation or the ability of individuals to maintain their lives in a prolonged period of economic contraction.

While monetizing is all great news for the banks and stock-markets it is terrible news for any people that do not receive well over average earnings – this is because monetizing debt (printing money) causes inflation. As with everything else connected with the economy, governments cook the books on inflation to the extent that the CPI is a total fantasy designed to give falsely low inflation rates.

Even the most foolish of people can see that month by month food, fuel, utilities, clothing and just about everything is going up in price. Part…
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World Markets Weekend Update: The Rally Continues

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The world market rally continued last week with six of the eight indexes on my watch list posting gains. Europe led the pack, with Germany’s DAX up 5.18%, France’s CAC 40 up 3.44% and the UK up 1.45%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was the big loser with its -2.70% loss. The other negative performer was Japan’s Nikkei 225. It’s fractional -0.76% decline snapped not only a four-week string of gains, but also four weeks as the top performer.

China’s Shanghai Composite remains the only index on the watch list in bear territory — the traditional designation for a 20% decline from an interim high. The index is down 28.36% from its August 2009 peak. See the table inset (lower right) in the chart below.

Here is a look at 2014 so far.

Here is a table highlighting the year-to-date index performance, sorted from high to low, along with the 2014 interim highs for the eight indexes. At this point, seven of the eight are positive YTD, up from five last week, with the three European indexes in the red.

India’s SENSEX and the US’s S&P 500 both ended the week with record highs.

A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks

The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. I’ve also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.

The chart below illustrates the comparative performance of World Markets since March 9, 2009. The start date is arbitrary: The S&P 500, CAC 40 and BSE SENSEX hit their lows on March 9th, the Nikkei 225 on March 10th, the DAX on March 6th, the FTSE on March 3rd, the Shanghai Composite on November 4, 2008, and the Hang Seng even earlier on October 27, 2008. However, by aligning on the same day and measuring the percent change, we get a better sense of the relative performance than if we align the lows.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

A Longer Look Back

Here is the same chart…
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Politics is Economics in the Week Ahead

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Marc To Market.

Many people assume that politics and economics are separate spheres.  We find ourselves often harkening back to the even older tradition of referring to “political economy”. After all it was Harold Laswell, who is regarded as the father of modern political science, that famously defined politics as who gets what, when and how. Isn’t that the role of the price mechanism and the market economy?  

 

The highlight of the holiday-shortened week (Japan Monday, US Thursday) ahead are two official meetings.  The EU and OPEC.  There are three issues at the EU meeting that will be important for investors.    First, the new European Commission will assess the 2015 budgets.  Although the outgoing commission let France and Italy slide with some financial sleight of hand to improve from their initial offering,  the two countries still stopped shy of the previously agreed up targets.   If there is truly a new sheriff in town(and we are not convinced there is), France may be subject to a fine up to 4 bln euros or 0.2% of national income for breaching the fiscal rules.   

 

To be clear, this is not a defense of the austerity fetish, rather it is a recognition of the untenable situation.  Despite its violations, France has not made a clear break of the ordo-liberal diktat, nor does it enact strong measures to boost aggregate demand.    France is neither fish nor fowl, but its goose is cooked as the political elite is intellectually bankrupt, and National Front are the only ones promising change.  

 

Second, EC President Juncker is expected to unveil a new three-year 300 bln euro infrastructure program of the European Investment Bank that will be administered by local governments. Preliminary reports suggest that the funds will be used to facilitate private investment, but is mostly funds already earmarked.  Less than a third is can be considered what the Japanese call “real water”.   While we are sympathetic to the idea that what ails Europe is not something that monetary policy alone can fix, the program is far too small of a scale to make much of a difference.  It is not even 1% of GDP per annum. 

 

It is also too small given the capacity.  With the EIB, European officials have a rare opportunity. Specifically,…
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The Real Reason Why The Netherlands Repatriated Its Gold

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Sprout Money.

Dutch Flag

In what could definitely be called a stunning move, the Netherlands has announced it has repatriated in excess of 120 tonnes of gold from the vaults of the Federal Reserve in New York to the Dutch Central Bank in Amsterdam. Officially a move made to rebalance the locations where the gold is being stored, one cannot ignore the fact that the Netherlands only repatriated a large part of the gold which was stored in New York and it did not touch the gold stored in Canada and London.

Gold Vault

Additionally, it’s not just ‘some’ gold being brought back home, no, the total amount is 122.47 tonnes or almost 4 million ounces with a market value of $5B. This will reduce the exposure of the Dutch Central Bank to the US financial system as now just 31% of its gold is being stored in the vault of the Fed, coming down from 51%. We have the impression this won’t be the last repatriation as the Dutch Central Bank is keeping its shipping route secret ‘in case more gold needs to be repatriated’.

So what was the main reason why the Netherlands brought the shiny precious metal back home? The central bank wants you to believe it’s just an ordinary decision, but believe it or not, the only reason for this move was to restore the confidence of the public in the Central Bank. By publishing this statement, the Dutch Central Bank basically admits that holding gold increases the public trust in the central bank as an institution, and that’s an statement which should not and cannot be underestimated as it basically means that only physical gold can be trusted and that the gold should be stored inside the country. ‘He who owns the gold makes the rules’ once again seems to be up-and-coming again.

The best place to store your gold is obviously in your own back yard, and it looks like the Netherlands aren’t agreeing with the Germans which also wanted to repatriate most of its gold which was stored in the vaults of the Federal Reserve. However, after bringing just a fraction of its gold back to Berlin, Germany publicly stated it would not repatriate any more gold as it ‘fully trusts the Federal Reserve as an institution’ and ‘the Americans…
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Grand Jury Decision Unlikely This Weekend As Private Security Move “Guns & Gold” Out Of Ferguson

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Sporadic confrontations and violence between protesters and police continued to occur overnight in Ferguson as multiple news agencies report grand jury considering whether to indict the Ferguson police officer who shot and killed teenager Michael Brown is unlikely to meet and render a decision this weekend. The fear, as we have previously noted, is a major uprising as one sign protested, "if the killer cop walks, AmeriKKKa Halts," and as Fox reports, Brown family attorney is managing expectations, "99% of the time the police officer is not held accountable for killing a young black boy," Crump said. "The police officer gets all the consideration." There is, however, another potential reason for delaying the decision's reporting, as VICE reports, business owners in the St. Louis, Missouri area have hired private military contractors to transport guns and gold, fearing their shops will be targeted by looters if a grand jury does not indict.

 

As Fox reports, a grand jury decision this weekend is unlikely,

The grand jury considering whether to indict the Ferguson police officer who shot and killed teenager Michael Brown is unlikely to meet and render a decision this weekend, sources told Fox News on Saturday.

 

Those same sources say it is likely the grand jury will wait until Monday to reconvene.

 

The 12-member grand jury has been considering whether charges are warranted against Officer Darren Wilson, who shot and killed the 18-year-old Brown on Aug. 9 during a confrontation on a street in Ferguson. Wilson is white and Brown, who was unarmed, is black.

 

 

On Saturday, the authorities set up barricades around the Buzz Westfall Justice Center in Clayton, which is where the grand jury has been meeting.

 

Barricades also went up in the shopping center parking lot on West Florissant Avenue in Ferguson, which was where police set up a makeshift command center in the immediate aftermath of Brown's death.

 

 

"I just hope it stays peaceful," Freeman said of protests that will follow the grand jury decision. "We all have human emotions, bit there's a way to do things, and violence, you can't get peace from violence."

 

Crump, the Brown family attorney, seemed doubtful that Wilson would be charged, saying the grand jury process is


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Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the Happy Thanksgiving Edition of Stock World Weekly!

Click on this link and sign in with your PSW user name and password. 

Picture via Pixabay.





Pity the Sub-Genius

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tim Knight from Slope of Hope.

From the Slope of Hope: They say be careful what you wish for. And, as is often the case, "they" are right.

As a kid, I wished the world favored the smart. I was a smart kid, and it seemed like the world – at least my world – was dominated by bullies and airheads. Might made right, just like in the times of old. My high IQ and love of learning were no match for popular dolts, so a portion of my childhood was wasted just trying to disappear into the background.

Unknown to me at the time, much of the adult world operated the same way. It didn't take a 1123-sublot of intellect to have a respectable, enjoyable middle class existence in the world of the 1970s. The willingness to put in a full day's work (or, if protected by a union, a portion of a day's work) was enough to trump the potential impediment of a double-digit IQ. As I've mentioned before, my own uncle had a nice house, an even larger vacation home, and plenty of leisure time, and he worked inside the stink of a Louisiana paper mill.

The world did change, however, exactly as I hoped. My first indication was a cover story of California magazine titled "Revenge of the Nerds" with Steve Wozniak's smiling face and Apple-logo eyeglasses. It turns out the grey matter languishing in my head started to have value. At 15 years of age, I began writing articles for nationally-distributed computer magazines. At 16 years old, I wrote my first published book, which was followed by a couple dozen others. I was earning enough money to buy a Porsche in high school. It was suddenly cool – and profitable – to be smart.

The Simple World

This post isn't about my misspent youth, however. I simply use that as a point of reference, because the gap between the fates and fortunes of the "smart" and "not as smart" has become grotesquely large. So much so, I'm starting to yearn for the days when the cavemen among us had some say-so.

It wasn't that long ago that the world was relatively easy to comprehend. Take the world political scene,…
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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Zero Hedge

NATO Jets Surrounding Russia: Before And After

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Based on the following "before" and "after" the Ukraine crisis pictures of NATO warplanes located just off the Russian border...

Before:

After:

... one can almost understand why Victoria Nuland was so eager to tell the EU to "fuck off" in her successful attemp to foment Ukraine unrest leading to the overthrow of ex-president Yanukovich, and destabilize the region, giving NATO a pretext for a major arms build up on the other side of the R...



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Chart School

World Markets Weekend Update: The Rally Continues

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The world market rally continued last week with six of the eight indexes on my watch list posting gains. Europe led the pack, with Germany's DAX up 5.18%, France's CAC 40 up 3.44% and the UK up 1.45%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was the big loser with its -2.70% loss. The other negative performer was Japan's Nikkei 225. It's fractional -0.76% decline snapped not only a four-week string of gains, but also four weeks as the top performer.

China's Shanghai Composite remains the only index on the watch list in bear territory -- the traditional designation for a 20% decline from an interim high. The index is down 28.36% from its August 2009 peak. See the table inset (lower right) in the chart below.

He...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the Happy Thanksgiving Edition of Stock World Weekly!

Click on this link and sign in with your PSW user name and password. 

Picture via Pixabay.

...

more from SWW

Phil's Favorites

"Eagle Cam": Aerial View of London via Video Camera Attached to an Eagle

Courtesy of Mish.

An eagle got an impressive birds-eye-view of London this week, flying over the city's most iconic landmarks using a Sony HDR-AZ1VR Action Cam attached to its back.



Link if video does not play: Action Cam Footage Shows Eagle Flying Over City of London

The BBC reports Eagle With Camera Flies Over London
An eagle with a camera attached has flown across London and offered a new perspective on some of the capital's best-known landmarks.

The footage was recorded over a week by an Imperial Eagle called Darchan.

The animal has been brought to London from the French Alps by The Freedom Project to mark the 50th anniversary of the International Union for Conservation of ...



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Market Shadows

Official Moves in the Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio

By Ilene 

I officially bought 250 shares of EZCH at $18.76 and sold 300 shares of IGT at $17.09 in Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio yesterday (Fri. 11-21).

Click here for Thursday's post where I was thinking about buying EZCH. After further reading, I decided to add it to the virtual portfolio and to sell IGT and several other stocks, which we'll be saying goodbye to next week.

Notes

1. th...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of November 17th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Investors make up new rules for their new market paradigm

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

By Scott Martindale

Investors in U.S. equities seem to have embraced a new market paradigm in which upside spikes come more swiftly than the downside selloffs. Remember when it used to be the other way around? When fear was stronger than greed? The market is consolidating its gains off the early-October V-bottom reversal, and no one seems to be in any hurry to unload shares this time around, with the holidays rapidly approaching and all. After all, there are bright blue skies directly overhead giving hope and respite from the early freeze blanketing the country.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer...



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Digital Currencies

Ukraine Central Bank Bans Bitcoin "To Protect Citizens" From Financing Terrorism

If you would have supposed that Ukraine had enough problems to make banning bitcoins a backburner issue, you'd have been wrong. The rationale, "to protect consumers' rights" makes little to no sense... The other one, "to keep money in the country" makes more sense. 

Ukraine Central Bank Bans Bitcoin "To Protect Citizens" From Financing Terrorism

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The Hryvnia has collapsed to new record lows near 15/USD this morning. The Central Bank and bankers "agreed to keep UAH at 15-16/USD" but are &qu...



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Option Review

Yamana Gold call options sink

Yamana Gold call options sink

By Andrew Wilkinson at Interactive Brokers

A four-year low for the spot price of gold has had a devastating impact on Yamana Gold (Ticker: AUY), with shares in the name down at the lowest price in six years. Some option traders were especially keen to sell premium and appear to see few signs of a lasting rebound within the next five months. The price of gold suffered again Wednesday as the dollar strengthened and stock prices advanced. The post price of gold fell to $1145 adding further pain to share prices of gold miners. Shares in Yamana Gold tumbled to $3.62 and the lowest price since 2008 as call option sellers used the April expiration contract to write premium at the $5.00 strike. That strike is now 38% above the price of the stock. Premium writers took in around 16-cents per contract o...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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