Archive for the ‘Immediately available to public’ Category

Mark Carney Forced To Explain Surge In UK Inflation To Highest In Almost 6 Years

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The market expected Mark Carney to avoid it but it was just not meant to be.

The BoE Governor will suffer the ignominy of a bizarre tradition of having to write a letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer explaining why UK inflation is more than 1.0% above the target of 2.0%. The market had expected the UK CPI to rise by a modest 0.2% month-on-month, taking the year-on-year rate up to 3.0%. Instead the month-on-month rate hit 0.3% pushing the annual rate to 3.1%, its highest rate since March 2012.

As Bloomberg writes, "U.K. inflation unexpectedly accelerated to the fastest in more than 5 1/2 years in November, forcing Bank of England Governor Mark Carney to explain why price growth is so far above target. Consumer prices rose 3.1 percent from a year earlier, driven by the cost of air fares and computer games, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday. That’s up from 3 percent in October and the highest since March 2012."

The latest reading means Carney is now compelled to write to Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond explaining why inflation is more than 1 percentage point away from the official 2 percent target. The letter will be published alongside the BOE’s policy decision in February, rather than this week, as the Monetary Policy Committee has already started its meetings for its Dec. 14 announcement.

Rising costs of airfares along with petrol and energy prices were expected to have been offset by an easing in food and clothing price pressures, the latter helped by seasonal promotions. However, the price of computer games rose more than expected and higher chocolate prices saw food and non-alcoholic drink prices rise 4.1% versus November 2016, the highest level since 2013.

After the announcement, Sterling briefly spiked to 1.3375 before being sold off to 1.3332, which is slightly lower on the day. The one piece of good news in the release was that core CPI for November came in at 2.7% higher than a year ago, in line with consensus. Furthermore, the latest report might be the peak, with both the headline and core rates declining as we go through


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Ex-Spy Chief Admits Role In ‘Deep State’ Intelligence War On Trump

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

An ex-spy chief who spoke out publicly against Trump while inspiring other career intelligence figures to follow suit has admitted his leading role in the intelligence community waging political war against the president, describing his actions as something he didn't "fully think through". In a surprisingly frank interview, the CIA's Michael Morell – who was longtime Deputy Director and former Acting Director of the nation's most powerful intelligence agency – said that it wasn't a great idea to leak against and bash a new president.

Morell had the dubious distinction of being George W. Bush's personal daily briefer for the agency before and after 9/11, and also served under Obama until his retirement. In the summer of 2016 he took the unusual step (for a former intelligence chief) of openly endorsing Hillary Clinton in a New York Times op-ed entitled, I Ran the C.I.A. Now I'm Endorsing Hillary Clinton, after which he continued to be both an outspoken critic of Trump and an early CIA voice promoting the Russian collusion and election meddling narrative.

Acting director of the CIA Michael Morell with Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta

in 2013. Image source: Wiki Commons, DoD

As Politico's Susan Glasser put in a newly published interview, Morell "has emerged out of the shadows of the deep state" to become one of Trump's foremost critics speaking within the intel community. However, Politico summarizes the interview as follows:

But in a revealingly self-critical and at times surprising interview for this week’s Global POLITICO, Morell acknowledges that he and other spy-world critics of the president failed to fully “think through” the negative backlash generated by their going political. “There was a significant downside,” Morell said in the interview.

Not only had Morell during his previous NYT op-ed stated that he was committed to doing "everything I can to ensure that she is elected as our 45th president" but he went so far as to call then candidate Trump "a threat to our national security" – while making the extraordinary claim that "in the intelligence business, we would say that Mr. Putin had recruited Mr. Trump as an unwitting agent of the Russian Federation."

Curiously, Morell in


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The WTO: Useless For Trade, Useful For The State

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Carmen Elena Dorob?? via The Mises Institute,

This week WTO officials will gather in Buenos Aires for their 11th ministerial conference. There is very little hope that any of the deals on the agenda will be reached, as both the WTO’s negotiations and its dispute settlement system have long been paralyzed by political bickering and a deep-seated inefficiency in the organization itself. Anxious WTO ministers (such as the EU’s trade commissioner) are now grasping at straws and blaming Trump and his lack of support for the WTO’s troubles.

Yet twenty-two years after its creation, the organization has almost nothing to show for it as far as trade liberalization is concerned. Juggling 164 member countries, each with its own protectionist agenda, was never likely to bring about ‘more open trade’, ‘more competitive markets’, or ‘market stability and predictability’. Especially not after trade rules, services, intellectual property, and environmental protection were brought to the negotiations table alongside tariffs and non-tariff barriers. Countries started by holding agreements hostage to their demands, continued with disregarding agreements completely, and now end on quibbling over the language used in joint statements.

An easy, albeit crude, depiction of WTO’s failure can be seen in the figure below, where the world tariffs effectively applied (which include unilateral liberalization and preferential trade agreements) have been consistently lower than those achieved via multilateral negotiations (most favored nation) in the first twelve years after WTO’s creation—when it was allegedly most successful. 

world tariff rates.jpg

Other research offers the same story, and we’ve seen in detail before the reason why bottom-up, unilateral trade liberalization tends to work, and top-down, multilateral trade agreements never do (here, here, and here).

The WTO’s end seems nearer now, and not a moment too soon.

So it did a few years ago, though, and yet it lingers on because governments have a few reasons to keep it alive.

First of all, once bureaucratic spending machines are set in motion, there’s little that can be done to rein them back in. The less efficient they are and the less they do, the


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Finally, Gold Speculators Start To Bail, Setting Up A Big Q1 2018

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

 

Finally, Gold Speculators Start To Bail, Setting Up A Big Q1 2018

Posted with permission and written by John Rubino, Dollar Collapse 

Finally, Gold Speculators Start To Bail, Setting Up A Big Q1 2018 - John Rubino

It took a lot longer than it should have, but gold futures traders have finally started behaving “normally.” The speculators who were extremely, stubbornly long – and who are usually wrong when they’re this excited — had maintained their over-optimistic bets when they should have been stampeding for the exits, making the last few months both boring and depressing for gold bugs and related investors.

This departure from the familiar script raised questions about whether the action in futures (aka paper gold) was still relevant in the age of Chinese physical gold exchanges and cryptocurrency. The jury’s still out on that one, but for now the numbers are reassuring.

The following table (courtesy of GoldSeek) shows speculators cutting way back on long bets and adding to short bets, while the “commercials” – who tend to be right at sharp turns — did the opposite, going a lot less short.

Same thing only more so in silver, where another week like the last one will bring net positions into balance for both groups, which has historically been extremely bullish.

Here’s the same data depicted graphically for gold: Note how both the speculators (silver columns) and the commercials (red columns) held their positions from spring into fall, producing the previously-mentioned boredom and depression. Also note the sharp drop in the most recent reporting week.

The numbers we’re seeing here are as of Tuesday the 5th, and the final three days of last week were a bloodbath for precious metals, so it’s highly likely that the next COT numbers – due out on Friday the 15th – will show absolute panic among speculators, leading to an even bigger swing in the right direction.

If history is still reliable, January will be a great month to own precious metals and mining stocks.


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Oil Producers Turning To Crypto To Solve Sanctions Problems

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Last week, Venezuela announced it would develop a national cryptocurrency backed by its oil reserves, the Petro.  Now there is a report that Russia is considering the same thing.  Iran will likely follow suit.

As of right now this is just a rumor, but it makes some sense.  So, let’s treat this rumor as fact for the sake of argument and see where it leads us.

The U.S. continues to sanction and threaten all of these countries for daring to challenge the global status quo.  There is no denying this.  And so much of what we see in the geopolitical headlines are knock-on effects of this challenge.

The Geopolitical “Why”

From the Middle East to North Korea, the Dutch changing their laws to block Nordstream 2 to the Saudis breaking off relations with Qatar, everything you read about in the news is a move on the geopolitical “Go” board.

Because at the heart of this is the petrodollar. Contrary to what many believe, the petrodollar is not the source of the U.S. dollar’s power around the world, but rather the U.S.’s main fulcrum by which to keep competition out of the markets.

It is a secondary effect of the dollar’s dominance in global finance today.  But it is not the main driver.  Financial market are simply too big relative to the size any one commodity market for it to be the fulcrum on which everything hinges.

It was that way in the past. But it is not now.  That said, however, getting out from underneath the petrodollar gives a country independence to begin building financial architecture that can be levered up over time to threaten the institutional control it helped create.

U.S. foreign policy defends the petrodollar along with other systems in place – the IMF, the World Bank, SWIFT, LIBOR and the central banks themselves – to maintain its control.

The main oil producers, however, can escape this control simply by selling their oil in currencies other than the U.S. dollar.  That’s not enough to dethrone the dollar, but, like I just said, it is where the process


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Bitcoin Futures Tumble As Spot-Arbitrage Collapses

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Update: The Bitcoin Futures-Spot arb spread has collapsed to around $600 in the early evening trading (led by Futures selling more than spot buying)

From a premium of over 13% last night, Futures now trade at just 4.5% above spot as the arb-spread tumbles.

On a side note, we se that the Bitcoin Trust premium to NAV has also collapsed in recent days from over 140% to around 10%…

*  *  *

Something just snapped in the cryptosphere. First, we noted that the spread between Bitcoin spot and futures was tumbling…

Something we would expect to close:

“Arbitrage will close that gap, but it will be days and weeks,” Cboe Chief Executive Officer Ed Tilly said on Bloomberg Television Monday, less than a day after launching the product.

“If you’re doing a cash-settled future, it’s just a bet,” said Aaron Brown, a former managing director at quant hedge fund AQR Capital Management who invests in the cryptocurrency and writes for Bloomberg Prophets.

“If that’s not related to any underlying physical transaction, the only people who want to do it are gamblers.”

The wide arb spread is “a big issue. It’s an illiquidity, it has to go away.” The price gap between bitcoin and bitcoin futures won’t last forever, said Dave Weisberger, CEO of CoinRoutes, a cryptocurrency data and order routing company.

“The futures will ping-pong between premium and discount,” he said. “I suspect at some point, potentially triggered by a negative event, it will flip. Markets go up and down, and bitcoin has been no different. It’s just been fast.”

At the same time as Bitcoin rallied so Litecoin and Ethereum tumbled:

And then Coinbase broke:

And when it came back online – huge volume spiked Bitcoin back above $17,000.

To a new record high on BitStamp

Meanwhile, the head of Japan's largest cryptocurrency exchange, bitFlyer, revealed to the


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Warning From The World’s Biggest Shipping Line On Outlook for World Trade

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The optimism on world trade didn’t last very long.

It was only late September when the WTO issued a “strong upward revision” to their estimate for 2017 world trade. WTO economists raised their forecast to 3.6% from 2.4%, which was at the top end of the previous 1.8-3.6% range. This marked a sharp acceleration from the 1.3% growth in 2016. The IMF’s forecast for 2017 world trade, also made in September, was even higher at 4.2%. Now the Copenhagen-based Maersk, the world’s number one container shipping company, is sounding a warning about softer demand and downward pressure on freight rates. According to Bloomberg.

The world’s largest container shipping line says international freight rates are reversing after climbing for most of this year, raising questions about the sustainability of the global trade recovery. Decade-old oversupply issues swamped demand for containerized sea trade in the third quarter, a senior official at Maersk Line Ltd. said in an interview last week. Over 90 percent of trade is routed through ships, making the industry a bellwether for the worldwide economy.

"We have started to see some pockets of downward pressure," said Steve Felder, Mumbai-based managing director of Maersk’s South Asian unit. The global trade order book at around 13.5 percent of capacity isn’t high, "however, given that freight rates are largely determined on the basis of supply-demand balance, they remain fragile," he said.

Last week, we highlighted the collapse in the share price of Samsung Heavy, the world’s third largest shipbuilder, after unexpectedly forecasting losses for this year and 2018 and announcing a capital raise. The company stated that new order demand is falling which suggested that the revival seen across the industry in 2017 is already fading. Samsung Heavy said it didn’t see a recovery until 2019.

Maersk’s downbeat assessment of the outlook mirrors the view of a number of shipping consultants, banks, other container shipping companies and rating agencies, as Bloomberg notes.

Maersk isn’t alone. Drewry Shipping Consultants expects the container-shipping freight growth rate to drop to less than 10 percent in 2018 from around 15 percent in 2017 as a supply glut


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7 Stocks To Watch For December 12, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

7 Stocks To Watch For December 12, 2017

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Casey’s General Stores Inc (NASDAQ: CASY) reported weaker-than-expected earnings for its second quarter. Casey’s shares dropped 3.62 percent to $116.86 in the after-hours trading session.
  • KMG Chemicals, Inc. (NYSE: KMG) reported upbeat results for its first quarter on Monday. KMG Chemicals shares climbed 6.90 percent to $59.00 in the after-hours trading session.
  • Wall Street expects VeriFone Systems, Inc. (NYSE: PAY) to post quarterly earnings at $0.43 per share on revenue of $472.46 million after the closing bell. VeriFone shares gained 0.78 percent to close at $18.19 on Monday.
  • bluebird bio Inc (NASDAQ: BLUE) reported a $600 million offering of common shares. Bluebird bio shares fell 1.54 percent to $198.70 in the after-hours trading session.

Find out what’s going on in today’s market and bring any questions you have to Benzinga’s PreMarket Prep.

  • Peregrine Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: PPHM) reported a Q2 loss of $12.6 million on revenue of $12.8 million. Peregrine Pharmaceuticals shares tumbled 17.76 percent to $4.40 in the after-hours trading session.
  • Blueprint Medicines Corp (NASDAQ: BPMC) reported a $275 million common stock offering. Blueprint Medicines shares declined 2.63 percent to $86.00 in after-hours trading.
  • Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) reported a $18 billion buyback plan and raised its quarterly dividend from $1.42 per share to $1.71 per share. Boeing shares gained 1.39 percent to $287.10 in after-hours trading.

Posted-In: Stocks To WatchEarnings News Pre-Market Outlook Markets Trading Ideas





HSBC Shares Surge As US DoJ Removes “Sword Of Damocles” On Money Laundering

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

On Monday, HSBC announced its deferred prosecution agreement with the US Department of Justice (DoJ) had expired, removing the threat of criminal prosecution for money laundering which had been hanging over the company for five years. From the Financial Times.

The US Department of Justice has given HSBC a major boost by seeking dismissal of the deferred criminal charges that have been hanging over the bank since it was fined for money laundering and sanctions breaches five years ago. The move by the DoJ lifts the threat of criminal prosecution that had been a “sword of Damocles” hanging over London-headquartered HSBC, as its new management team looks to put its misconduct-plagued past behind it.

HSBC said the DoJ would file a motion with the US District Court for the Eastern District of New York seeking the dismissal of the charges deferred by the agreement it reached as part of a settlement with the bank in December 2012.The deferred prosecution agreement meant the DoJ could have reopened the criminal case against HSBC if the bank had been caught breaching the rules again during that period.

To recap, in December 2012, HSBC agreed to pay the largest fine ever – £1.2 billion ($1.9 billion) – to settle charges of money laundering after a US Senate investigation concluded that the bank had acted as a conduit for “drug kingpins and rogue nations”. HSBC was found to have violated the Bank Secrecy Act, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and the Trading with the Enemy Act. From the DoJ’s press release.

“HSBC’s blatant failure to implement proper anti-money laundering controls facilitated the laundering of at least $881 million in drug proceeds through the U.S. financial system.  HSBC’s willful flouting of U.S. sanctions laws and regulations resulted in the processing of hundreds of millions of dollars in OFAC-prohibited transactions.

The bank admitted to poor money laundering controls and its CEO, Stewart Gulliver apologised, stating “We accept responsibility for our past mistakes”. At the time, the BBC summarised the key points from the Senate’s report.

HSBC in the US had not treated its Mexican affiliate as high risk, despite the


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Is Bitcoin, Millennial’s “Fake Gold”?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Vitality Katsenelson via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

I’ve been asked about Bitcoin a lot lately. I haven’t written anything about it because I find myself in an uncomfortable place in agreeing with the mainstream media: It’s a bubble. Bitcoin started out as what I’d call “millennial gold” – the young (digital) generation looked at it as their gold substitute.

Bitcoin is really two things: a blockchain technology and a (perceived) currency. The blockchain element of Bitcoin may have enormous future applications: It may be used for electronic contracts, voting, money transfers – and the list goes on. But there is a very important misconception about Bitcoin: Ownership of Bitcoin doesn’t give you ownership of the technology. I, without owning a single bitcoin, own as much Bitcoin technology as someone who owns a million bitcoins; that is, exactly none. It’s just like when you have $1,000 on a Visa debit card: That $1,000 doesn’t give you part ownership of the Visa network unless you actually own some Visa’ stock.

Owning Bitcoin gives you a right to … what, actually? Digital bits?

I can understand gold bugs and the original Bitcoin aficionados. The global economy is living beyond its means and financing its lifestyle by issuing a lot of debt. Normally this behavior would cause higher interest rates and inflation. But not when you have central banks. Our local central bankers simply bought this newly issued debt and brought global interest rates down to near-zero levels (and in many cases to what would have been previously unthinkable negative levels). If you think investing today is difficult, being a parent is even more difficult. I tried to explain the above to my sixteen-year-old son, Jonah. I saw the same puzzled look in his eyes as when he found out where babies come from. I also felt embarrassed, for my inability to explain how governments can buy the debt they just issued. The concept of negative interest rates goes against every logical fiber in my body and is as confusing to this forty-four-year-old parent as it is to my sixteen-year-old.

The logical inconsistencies and internal sickness of the global economy have manifested themselves into a digital creature: Bitcoin.


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Phil's Favorites

How burnout is plaguing doctors and harming patients

 

How burnout is plaguing doctors and harming patients

Courtesy of Jay DesaiUniversity of Southern California

Exhaustion and burnout among physicians are growing problems. wavebreakmedia/Shutterstock.com

The presidential symposium at this year’s Annual Meeting of the Child Neurology Society of America in early October in Kansas City raised many eyebrows. The first presentation of this symposium focused on burnout rates among neurologists around the country.

Many of my colleagues f...



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Zero Hedge

It's Official: Bitcoin Surpasses "Tulip Mania", Is Now The Biggest Bubble In World History

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One month ago, a chart from Convoy Investments went viral for showing that among all of the world's most famous asset bubbles, bitcoin was only lagging the infamous 17th century "Tulip Mania."

One month later, the price of bitcoin has exploded even higher, and so it is time to refresh where in the global bubble race bitcoin now stands, and also whether it has finally surpassed "Tulips."

Conveniently, overnight the former Bridgewater analysts Howard Wang and Robert Wu who make up C...



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Insider Scoop

7 Stocks To Watch For December 12, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Casey's General Stores Inc (NASDAQ: CASY) reported weaker-than-expected earnings for its second quarter. Casey's shares dropped 3.62 percent to $116.86 in the after-hours trading session.
  • KMG Chemicals, Inc. (NYSE: KMG) reported upbeat results for its first quarter on Monday. KMG Che...


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Digital Currencies

No, Bitcoin Won't Boil The Oceans

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Elaine Ou via Bloomberg.com,

Concerns about the cryptocurrency's energy use are overblown...

While much of the world marvels at bitcoin’s meteoric rise, another part is focused on an environmental byproduct:

The sheer amount of electricity that crypto-currencies use.

By some estimates, bitcoin’s consumption ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Dec 10, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Before we talk about the stodgy ole stock market, anyone see that Bitcoin?  $11K last week – $16K this week…. and as I write this bitcoin futures are up over $18K. Just another week in the life…. (here is what you need to know about bitcoin futures)

Back to your regularly scheduled program… the S&P 500 rested a bit while a small correction rolled through the massive winners of 2017 in mega cap tech land, but in the end all was well again by Friday.

“The Nasdaq Composite Index was getting a little frothy, so it&...



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Biotech

DNA has gone digital - what could possibly go wrong?

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA has gone digital – what could possibly go wrong?

Courtesy of Jenna E. GallegosColorado State University and Jean PeccoudColorado State University

Modern advances come with new liabilities. Sergey ...



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ValueWalk

Tax Bill May Spark Exodus From High-Tax States

Courtesy of FinancialSense.com via ValueWalk.com

The following is a summary of our recent podcast, “Exodus – The Major Wealth Migration,” which can be listened to on our site here on on iTunes here.

It’s looking increasingl...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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