by Zero Hedge - August 31st, 2015 7:00 pm
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
First Trump, now this…!?
Relive the moment…
…and read on for the full transcript below:
“Bro. Bro! Listen to the kids. First of all, thank you, Taylor, for being so gracious and giving me this award this evening.
And I often think back to the first day I met you also. You know I think about when I’m in the grocery store with my daughter and I have a really great conversation about fresh juice… and at the end they say, ’Oh, you’re not that bad after all!’ And like I think about it sometimes. … It crosses my mind a little bit like when I go to a baseball game and 60,000 people boo me. Crosses my mind a little bit.
And I think if I had to do it all over again what would I have done? Would I have worn a leather shirt? Would I have drank half a bottle of Hennessy and gave the rest of it to the audience? Ya’ll know ya’ll drank that bottle too! If I had a daughter at that time would I have went on stage and grabbed the mic from someone else’s? You know, this arena tomorrow it’s gonna be a completely different setup. Some concert, something like that. The stage will be gone. After that night, the stage was gone, but the effect that it had on people remained.
The … The problem was the contradiction. The contradiction is I do fight for artists, but in that fight I somehow was disrespectful to artists. I didn’t know how to say the right thing, the perfect thing. I just … I sat at the Grammys and saw Justin Timberlake and Cee-Lo lose. Gnarls Barkley and the FutureLove … SexyBack album … and Justin, I ain’t trying to put you on blast, but I saw that man in tears, bro. You know, and I was thinking, like, ’He deserved to win Album of the Year!'”
And this small box that we are as the entertainers of the evening … How could you explain that? Sometimes I feel like all this s–t they run about beef and all that? Sometimes I feel like I died for the artist’s opinion. For artists to be
by Zero Hedge - August 31st, 2015 6:50 pm
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Only one thing for it really…
Forget stocks, today was all about crude oil again…
WTI pushed into the green for August!!!
3 Bear markets and 3 Bull markets now in 2015 so far… perfectly tagging the 50-day moving-average today…
This is the biggest 3-day rise in WTI since 1990!!
Oil Volatility and credit markets were not squeezed into euphoria at all…
* * *
Having got that out of the way…Dow's worst monthly drop since May 2010..
and had an ugly close…
Stocks got some lift from the momo-igniters -but once NYMEX closed, it was over. Stocks traded in a relatiovely narrow range glued to VWAP after the overnight plunge… Small Caps outperformed as Nasdaq Underporformed…
But were glued to VWAP all day… on no volume
Futures markets giveus a better idea of the moves…NOTE -0 this is from the beginning of Friday's pathetic EOD ramp…
Once again complete chaos on VIX ETFs…
VIX had its biggest monthly jump in history…
For the month, it's been a wild ride!! but just look at how clustered the moves were…
Finacials & Enmergy and Healthcare (Biotech) were worst performers in August…
For all the excitment over FANG – August was a mixed bunch for them with FB and AMZN notably red…
With all the craziness in stocks, Treasury yields at the long-end ended the month practically unch… 2Y rose 8bps…
With some more notable weakness today (which was also seen in Bunds)…note once again selling weas in US session, buying in Asia and Europe…
The USD ended the day lower with some major swings in CAD…
As August's USD Index drop was the biggest in 4 months…
Commodities were insane today – led obviously by crude!
And on the month… perhaps most notably, the perfect recoupling of crude and gold on the month!!??
But we note that Gold (+3.5%) had its best month since January even as Silver dropped
Finally – amid all the chaos in August, it appears there is a safe-haven… Gold outperforms
Bonus Chart: We're gonna need Moar QE…
by Zero Hedge - August 31st, 2015 6:30 pm
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
There’s no question that the world economy has been shaky at best since the crash of 2008.
Yet, politicians, central banks, et al., have, since then, regularly announced that “things are picking up.” One year, we hear an announcement of “green shoots.” The next year, we hear an announcement of “shovel-ready jobs.”
And yet, year after year, we witness the continued economic slump. Few dare call it a depression, but, if a depression can be defined as “a period of time in which most people’s standard of living drops significantly,” a depression it is.
Many people are surprised that no amount of stimulus and low interest rates have resulted in creating more jobs or more productivity. Were they a bit more cognizant of the simple, understandable principles of classical economics (as opposed to the complex theoretical principles of Keynesian invention), they’d recognise that, when debt reaches the level that it cannot be repaid, a major re-set of some sort must take place.
The major economies of the world have reached and exceeded that point and the debt problem is no mere anomaly that can be papered over. It is, instead, systemic. There must be a major forgiveness of debt, a default, or an economic collapse, or some combination of the three.
And so, those who recognise the inevitability of such an event have been storing their nuts away in preparation for an economic winter.
Those of us who warned of the 2008 crash in advance had been regarded as economic “Chicken Littles.” After the crash, we were largely resented as having made a “lucky guess.” Following that time, a moderate amount of credence has been allowed us, as we’ve recommended investments in real estate and precious metals (outside of those jurisdictions that are most at risk). However, since the Great Gold Correction (2011-2015), that begrudging credence has worn away and been replaced with renewed contempt.
To the naysayers, the 2001-2011 gold boom has been relegated to the investment dustbin and, to most punters, gold is clearly “over.”
Just as importantly, the most significant events of the “Greater Depression” that we had been predicting have clearly not yet come to pass. They’re still ahead of us. And, in this, we must confess that those…
by Zero Hedge - August 31st, 2015 5:59 pm
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
Once upon a time, when the market actually discounted the future path of the economy instead of being a lagging indicator to not only underlying macroeconomic conditions…
… or simply frontrunning central bank policy, economists would use it to anticipate key economic inflection points such as recessions and recoveries. Which is also why the recent correction in the market has spooked all those conventional economists who still believe there is a “market” instead of a centrally-planned “wealth effect” policy tool, whose only purposes is to react to every increase in the global $14 trillion central bank balance sheet.
It is these economists, which also include the academics on the Fed’s staff, who took one look at the tumble in stocks in the past two weeks and decided that a rate hike may not be such a hot idea after all. Because if the market is sliding, it surely is telegraphing that not all is well with the economy and therefore tightening financial conditions would be suicidal for any central bank.
So assuming that after being wrong for 7 years about everything, economists are actually right about the market still having some discounting abilities left, what then is the market telegraphing? The answer, according to the Bank of America: the biggest surge in recessionary odds since 2011, which over the past few days have nearly hit a 50% probability of an economic slowdown.
Recession probability from stock prices shoots higher: The more interesting and difficult question is whether the equity correction is signaling a deeper economic malaise. Equity prices can be leading indicators of recession. Indeed, Michael Hanson has developed a variety of probit models that use financial variables to estimate the risk of a recession. According to his model, the 15% annualized drop in the S&P500 index (over the past six months) is signaling a 47% risk of recession starting sometime in the next 12 months. That sounds fairly grim; however, we wouldn’t take the signal too literally. As Paul Samuelson famously quipped in the late 1960s: “The stock market has called nine of the last five recessions.” Our probit model sends a lot of false signals. For example, in 2011 the model saw a 59% chance of recession (which we argued strongly against at the time).
by Zero Hedge - August 31st, 2015 5:39 pm
Submitted by Pivotfarm.
by Zero Hedge - August 31st, 2015 5:30 pm
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
One of the most curiously persistent surrealisms of Washington, DC is the reflexive deference given the Federal Reserve System. The Washington elite tends to accord more infallibility to the Fed than do Catholics the Pope.
Now comes one of the world’s top monetary reporters, Ylan Q. Mui, to make a delicate observation at the Washington Post’s Wonkblog, in Why nobody believes the Federal Reserve’s forecasts. Mui:
“The market recognizes that the Fed has repeatedly erred on the optimistic side,” said Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management. “Fool me 50 times, but not 51 times.”
Even the government’s official budget forecasters are dubious of the Fed’s own forecast.
This is a theme that Mui has touched on before. In 2013, she wrote Is the Fed’s crystal ball rose-colored?:
The big question is whether Fed officials can get it right after years in which they have regularly predicted a stronger economy than the one that materialized. In January 2011, Fed officials predicted that GDP would grow around 3.7 percent that year. It clocked in at 2 percent. In January 2012, they anticipated growth of about 2.5 percent. We ended up with 1.6 percent.
To give Ms. Mui’s competition its due, Dr. Richard Rahn at the Washington Times last April crisply noted:
The Federal Reserve had forecast the U.S. economy to grow about 4 percent near the beginning of each year for the last five years. But during each year, the Fed was forced to reduce its forecast until it got to the actual number of approximately 2 percent. (Other government agencies have been making equally bad forecasts.) These mammoth errors clearly show that the forecast models the official agencies use are mis-specified and contain incorrect assumptions.
What’s going on here?
A good bet would be that there’s a problem with the Fed’s reliance on an arcane art. This art is designated “Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium” modeling.
Sound scientific? Well.
With admirable intellectual honesty an assistant vice president in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group, Marco Del Negro, Wharton Ph.D. student Raiden Hasegawa and University of Pennsylvania professor of economics Frank Schorfheide (speaking for themselves and not the Fed) open a two part analysis at the NY Fed’s own excellent Liberty Street Economics, Choosing the…
by Zero Hedge - August 31st, 2015 5:00 pm
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
It’s enough to make you cry… or scream.
by ilene - August 31st, 2015 5:00 pm
Courtesy of Mish.
Witch Hunt Review
As I noted earlier today China Starts Witch Hunt for Those Obstructing Government Efforts to Prop Up Stocks.
It took less than a day for a victim of the witch hunt to be rounded up for public display. The Financial Times reports China Reporter Confesses to Stoking Market ‘Panic and Disorder’.
A leading journalist at one of China’s top financial publications has admitted to causing “panic and disorder” in the stock market, in a public confession carried on state television.
The detention of Wang Xiaolu, a reporter for Caijing magazine, comes amid a broad crackdown on the role of the media in the slump in China’s stock market, which is down about 40 per cent from its June 12 peak. Nearly 200 people have been punished for online rumour-mongering, state news agency Xinhua reported at the weekend.
“I shouldn’t have released a report with a major negative impact on the market at such a sensitive time. I shouldn’t do that just to catch attention which has caused the country and its investors such a big loss. I regret . . . [it and am] willing to confess my crime,” [said Xiaolu]
When the market turmoil began in June, Beijing imposed restrictions on media reporting of the stock market. The independent China Digital Times, which monitors internet censorship in the country, said in June media were told to avoid stoking panic.
“Do not conduct in-depth analysis, and do not speculate on or assess the direction of the market,” it reported an official directive as saying. “Do not exaggerate panic or sadness. Do not use emotionally charged words such as ‘slump’, ‘spike’ or ‘collapse’.”
Word Police US Style
With thanks to reader Mark for the link, Campus Reform reports that Professors Threaten Bad Grades for Saying Oppressive Words.
Multiple professors at Washington State University have explicitly told students their grades will suffer if they use terms such as “illegal alien,” “male,” and “female,” or if they fail to “defer” to non-white students.
According to the syllabus for Selena Lester Breikss’ “Women & Popular Culture” class, students risk a failing grade if they use any common descriptors that Breikss considers “oppressive and hateful language.”
by Chart School - August 31st, 2015 4:41 pm
Courtesy of Declan.
Bears took it upon themselves to press their advantage into the close of business. Selling volume was light and lacked the conviction that had accompanied the rout of the previous week.
The S&P is caught in a no-mans land, with a retest of 1,867 likely needed at some stage to rebuild confidence on bulls.
The Nasdaq 100 did likewise, but hasn’t done enough to confirm bears are in control.
Small Caps closed with an inside day and a small doji. As with other indices it’s caught in a bit of a no-mans land, but it is enjoying a relative strength gain against Large Caps and Tech indices.
The Semiconductor Index continues to stage its V-Recovery, having experienced the worst of the selling in recent months.
For tomorrow, look for bears to turn the screw, although I suspect buyers will step up in numbers well before we get to last week’s spike lows.
You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.
by ilene - August 31st, 2015 4:41 pm
Courtesy of The Automatic Earth.
Dorothea Lange Hoe culture in the South. Poor white, North Carolina July 1936
Nicole Foss recently participated in a live Google Hangouts (not Skype. I’m told) ‘forum’ discussion at the Doomstead Diner site that also included among others, Gail Tverberg, Steve Ludlum, Norman Pagett and Ugo Bardi. Apologies for the fact that I haven’t watched the videos yet and I’m getting the details as I go, so my info will be a bit sketchy.
I’ll run this in episodes. Today’s post contains episode 4. Previously, I posted episode 2 and 1,
Episode 3 has apparently not even been recorded yet, but we’ll post it as soon as it is available,
Part IV- Futurology
The Doomstead Diner site blurb:
One of the biggest hopes as the fossil fuels run thin or become too expensive to dig up is a switch to renewable forms of energy. How can such forms of energy be utilized, and how much of our current technological society can be maintained with the renewables?
As the larger structures of society begin to break down, a more localized organizational structure will become necessary, both on the food production and distribution level as well as new political organizations. How can communities come together and create the kind of structures necessary for a low per capita energy society of the future?
Psychology of Collapse
Collapse is creating many psychological issues and problems as it progresses and accelerates. More people are under more stress all the time, losing jobs, losing their homes to foreclosure, becoming homeless, waiting on long bread lines for food aid etc. We read daily about increasing suicide rates and the number of mass shootings is also on the increase, recently there were 142 mass shootings catalogued in 142 days, 1 every day. How can we handle these psychological problems that are cropping up, and likely will worsen as the overall economy worsens?