Archive for the ‘Immediately available to public’ Category

“We Are Late In The Game”: David Rosenberg On The Market’s Flashing Red Signs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last week, some readers were left wondering why, if the economy is as strong as the president is pretending it is (even though a leaked email from Donna Brazile revealed the truth behind the propaganda), did Gluskin Sheff strategist recommend unleashing a multi-trillion, “helicopter money” stimulus drop. The reason: we can officially close the book on the “bullish” Rosie and welcome back the old, grizzled, much more familiar version of the former Merril Lynch strategist: one bearish enough that the following litany of indicators that are “flashing red” for a late cycle economy, brings us back in time to some of his vintage pre-crisis writing.

Courtesy of the Financial Post, here is David Rosenberg explaining why “all signs are flashing this market is ‘late in the game’”

* * *

Late in the game: that is precisely where we are. And it’s not even an opinion any more. It is a market fact.

The TSX has not made a new high in over two years and it has been 17 months for the broad NYSE Composite stock index.

The yield curve is flattening. Leading economic indicators are sputtering.

Uber-tight credit spreads and ultra-low cap rates in real estate serve as confirmations of late-cycle pricing.

Traditional valuation metrics for equities are every bit as high if not higher than they were in the Fall of 2007.

We are well past the peak in autos and just passed the peak of the housing cycle.

Not just that but the broad measures of unemployment have stopped going down as well.

And the mega Merger Mania we are seeing invariably takes place at or near cycle peaks, as companies realize that they can no longer grow their earnings organically. We have just witnessed five multi-billion dollar deals this past week alone — $207 billion globally (AT&T/Time Warner; TD Ameritrade/Scottrade) in what has been the most active announcement list since 1999 … what do you know, near the tail end of that tech bull market too.

We also were at the receiving end of a really disappointing consumer confidence report out of The Conference Board — sliding to a three-month low of 98.6 in October from 103.5 in September, the sharpest slide of the year.

And it wasn’t just the politics or gas

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Aswath Damodaran Session 13: Story Changes and First DCFs

By Aswath Damodaran. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Published on Oct 26, 2016

In this class, we started with a quick review of narrative changes, shifts and breaks and how earnings reports, in particular, can alter your narrative for a company. Since many of you will be dealing with earnings reports in the next couple of weeks, I thought you may find these two posts of interest in how narratives shift, and with them, values:

Reacting to Earnings Reports:…

Narrative Resets:…

We started with three conventional valuations, one of Con Ed, another of 3M and the third of the S&P 500. Next week, things get interesting!

Start of the class test:…


Post class test:…

Post class test solution:…


The post Aswath Damodaran Session 13: Story Changes and First DCFs appeared first on ValueWalk.

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Over 80 Groups Want Russia Off The UN Human Rights Council, There’s Just One Problem

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Darius Shahtahmasebi via,

More than 80 human rights groups and other related non-governmental organizations have called on the United Nations to drop Russia from the U.N. Human Rights Council over its military campaign in Syria.

The groups, which include Human Rights Watch, CARE International, and Refugees International, signed an appeal that was launched ahead of the upcoming elections to fill 14 seats on the 47-nation council.

Given the media’s ongoing narrative against Russia’s bombardment of eastern Syria, the call to pull Russia from a council dedicated to human rights may be a well-founded request.

However, one should bear in mind that Saudi Arabia is also a member of this Council. Saudi Arabia is responsible for a recent assault on a Yemeni funeral that killed over 140 civilians and injured over 500 others. The aftermath of the attack was aptly described as a “lake of blood.”

China is a member of this U.N. Human Rights Council. Indonesia is a member of this Council. Though it isn’t often reported by the mainstream media, Indonesia has brutally repressed the people of West Papua simply because a mining company based in West Papua pays the Indonesian government a heap of tax (their biggest taxpayer). Though the West Papuan people have attempted to rise up against Indonesia’s occupation of their country, the Indonesian military suppresses their attempts simply to preserve their tax revenues and protect the interests of the very powerful mining company.

Given that the rest of the Council members’ atrocities are overlooked by these so-called human rights organizations, the motives of these groups should be called into question.

So what is really at play here? Is it the case that these NGOs are deeply concerned with human rights and have therefore drawn the line at Russia’s military campaign in Aleppo? Or are these groups acting as the mouthpieces of their respective governments and donors, including wealthy human rights abusers such as Saudi Arabia?

Unfortunately, the case against the motives of groups such as Human Right Watch’s was made over a decade ago. Anti-War released an article in September of 2001 that seriously called into question the objectives and the funding behind Human Rights Watch:

“For a century there has been a strong interventionist

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Leaked Memo Exposes The Ties Between Clinton Foundation Donors And Bill’s “For-Profit” Activities

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

We have written frequently in recent weeks about a feud that erupted between Chelsea Clinton and Doug Band back in 2011 after Chelsea raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest between Band’s firm, Teneo, the Clinton Foundation and the State Department (see here, here, here and here).  The feud ultimately resulted in Band being forced to draft a memo spelling out, in vivid detail, the many entangled relationships between himself, Teneo, the Clinton Foundation and the State Department.  Fortunately, today’s Wikileaks dump included that memo which reveals, for the first time, the precise financial flows between the Clinton Foundation, Band’s firm Teneo Consulting, and the Clinton family’s private business endeavors.

The memo starts with a brief background on Teneo, which was created in June 2011, shortly after Declan Kelly resigned from his position as “United States Economic Envoy to Northern Ireland,” a position to which he was appointed by Secretary Clinton.

In June 2009, DK Consulting was founded by Declan Kelley.   Mr. Kelly served as COO of FTI Consulting until June 2009, when he stepped down and established DK Consulting.  At that time, he also became the United States Economic Envoy to Northern Ireland.  Pursuant to the terms of his exit agreement with FTI and consistent with the ethics agreement of his uncompensated special government employee appointment at the State Department, Mr. Kelly retained and continued to provide services to three paying clients (Coke, Dow, and UBS) and one pro bono client (Allstate).  In late 2009, Declan retained me as a consultant to DK Consulting to help support the needs of these clients.

In May 2011, Mr. Kelly resigned his Envoy position at the State Department.  In June 2011, Mr. Kelly and I founded Teneo Strategies; simultaneously, Mr. Kelly closed DK Consulting and shifted its clients to Teneo.

Throughout the past almost 11 years since President Clinton left office, I have sought to leverage my activities, including my partner role at Teneo, to support and to raise funds for the Foundation. This memorandum strives to set forth how I have endeavored to support the Clinton Foundation and President Clinton personally.

In a subsequent section of the memo entitled “Leveraging Teneo For The Foundation,” Band spells all of the donations

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Your Dog Probably Has Better Healthcare Than You Do

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Simon Black via,

Below is a short email that my friend Sam posted this morning to his Facebook page about his surprisingly positive experience with the US healthcare system.

I thought it a fantastic read, and I wanted to pass it along to you:

I had to run to the emergency room today for what may be a neurological issue. Dizziness, staggering, loss of balance, that kind of thing.

I’m in San Diego, one of the most expensive cities in the world, and I have no insurance. I figured I was screwed.

But instead, the experience was unreal.

I got seen immediately. I didn’t even have time to sit down, they just whisked me into an examination room.

The doctor and nurse were ON IT, and they took their time with the exam and consultation.

The visit ultimately involved staying the whole day for observation, all kinds of tests, sedation and reversal, blood pressure check, a full blood panel work up (results tomorrow, yes TOMORROW keep your fingers crossed) and having both ears cleaned and flushed.

The bill was a mere $374.63.

Do I have some insane insurance plan? Nope.

Am I being super-subsidized by the rest of America? Nope.

Am I a privileged politician with a special “bosses only” healthcare plan? Don’t make me laugh.

It turns out that the care was for my dog, not for me. And we didn’t go to a ‘people’ hospital– I obviously took my dog to an animal hospital.

She and I are both biological machines, mammals made mostly of water (though she sheds more than I do).

The only other real difference is that the government is regulating the hell out of healthcare for people, while (relatively speaking), leaving healthcare for animals alone.

And that, my friends, is the reason Obamacare has flopped, and why your healthcare costs will keep going up.

It’s not greed. It’s not the drug companies. It’s not anything other than the application of government intervention in what should be a free market.

Simon again.

It’s not exactly controversial these days to suggest that the US healthcare system is in bad shape.

According to data collected by numerous independent agencies like the Institute of Medicine, Commonwealth Fund, and Kaiser Family Foundation, the US still ranks

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Invest For Kids 2016 Conference: Trian, Grant, Hoplite, Taconic, Pentwater And More

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Invest For Kids 2016 Conference

The Invest For Kids conference is the Chicago investment event of the year. The investment conference features presentations from an elite group of hedge fund managers. These managers present their views and ideas in concise 15-minute presentations in an effort to help underprivileged kids in the Chicago area – 100 percent of the proceeds go to charity.

ValueWalk attended the 2016 conference and below are links to our full coverage. Thanks to the conference organizers for providing us a media pass.

Also we have coverage of several recent investment conferences – check out this link for more on that

Invest For Kids 2016 Conference is over but stay tuned for our coverage from the Ira Sohn Toronto Conference taking place today and tomorrow (and many other exciting conferences coming up over the next few weeks)!

Invest For Kids 2016 Conference Matt Halbower Invest For Kids

Invest For Kids 2016 Conference

The post Invest For Kids 2016 Conference: Trian, Grant, Hoplite, Taconic, Pentwater And More appeared first on ValueWalk.

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“American” Roulette

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A Bubble in Dumb Money

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Chris at

Market dislocations occur when financial markets, operating under stressful conditions, experience large widespread asset mispricing.

Welcome to this week’s edition of “World Out Of Whack” where every Wednesday we take time out of our day to laugh, poke fun at and present to you absurdity in global financial markets in all it’s glorious insanity.


While we enjoy a good laugh, the truth is that the first step to protecting ourselves from losses is to protect ourselves from ignorance. Think of the “World Out Of Whack” as your double thick armour plated side impact protection system in a financial world littered with drunk drivers.

Selfishly we also know that the biggest (and often the fastest) returns come from asymmetric market moves. But, in order to identify these moves we must first identify where they live.

Occasionally we find opportunities where we can buy (or sell) assets for mere cents on the dollar - because, after all, we are capitalists.

In this week’s edition of the WOW we’re covering the death of active investing (or not)

Scan the financial news today and amongst the rubble 3 things stand out.

  1. US politics is now officially at the top of the fruit-bowl after entering banana republic territory.
  2. Sadly what happens to Kim Kardashian, who as far as I can tell is famous for being famous, is more important than wealth inequality, the demographic timebomb, unfunded pensions, and (amazingly) the headache I got after seeing her on Bloomberg. Yes, really.
  3. Active investing will blow away in the winds of history, replaced by passive strategies. Yup, it’s over, folks. Thanks for playing.

It is the 3rd point that we lend our eye to here today.

But first let me state my bias up front. It’s important for you to know so you can critique objectively – something we should all do.

Many many of my friends and colleagues manage money (some of them godawful amounts of the stuff), and many of them have been facing redemptions over the past few years with this year 2016 being the worst yet.

The WSJ recently ran an article about the dying business of picking stocks:

The Dying Business Of Picking Stocks

A few months ago Perry Capital closed its doors after losing

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Ugly! “Failure Almost Guaranteed” Regardless of Who Wins the Election

Courtesy of Mish.

The word of the day is “ugly”. That’s how Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank CIO and chief economist describes the US presidential campaign, broken social contracts, public debt, and productivity.

Things are so ugly, Jakobsen says “failure is almost guaranteed” regardless of who wins the election.


This is a guest post by Steen Jakobsen. The original appears at US Election: Nothing to lose — #SaxoStrats

US Election: Nothing to Lose

My present macro speech is titled “Ugly: Don’t fight with ‘ugly’ people as they have nothing to lose”.

To me, this is the essence of the US presidential campaign. The ugly truth surrounding this ballot lies in the bigger picture, as whomever becomes president will go down in history as the “non-president” – the president who made us need, see, and demand something else.

For all of the colourful headlines, and the almost McCarthy-esque pursuit of Trump by mainstream media, this is not going to be about “Trump, the person” or his more or less moronic views; Trump merely represents the catalyst for change. He is the anti-establishment candidate, yes, but not our vision for the future.

Continue reading here…

How I plan to retire in a decade

By DIVIDEND GROWTH INVESTOR. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There are three levers behind financial independence. The first lever is earning more, and the second lever is spending less. The difference between earnings and spending is the savings we use to invest. Investing is the third lever. I have found that by focusing on these three items exclusively since 2007 – 2008, I am on track to reach financial independence somewhere around 2018. This doesn’t mean that I would do nothing – it just means I would have the extra security and the option to live my life on my own terms.

Emergency Funds, Retirement

Photo by stevepb (Pixabay)

I believe that achieving this goal is not an act of randomness, but an act of careful planning, execution and living life in a way that fosters building wealth. In addition, it is important to have systems, which are essential to living life in a way that fosters building wealth.


It is extremely difficult to find money to invest, if you have no money to pay for your expenses. This is where finding a decently paying job is important. I have always earned average income. In fact, my base pretax – salary never really exceeded $60,000/year until 2014/2015.

I have focused on earning more however. I have achieved this by starting this site, which has made money in the past. I have also hustled by opening bank and brokerage accounts, as well as credit cards.

By investing my savings in dividend paying stocks, my level of passive dividend income has been increasing exponentially.


I have been frugal all my life. This is the reason why I graduated college with no debt, and $2,000 in the bank. Not having any debt was helpful, because I could put money to work for me and invest it, rather than waste it on expensive new cars for example. I have been mindful of spending, and only put money for things that I value. I have never had a budget, though I have always had the discipline to question every expense. My approach to zero-based budgeting is somewhat inspired by 3G Capital. But I always instinctively understood the fact that the less I spend, the more I have to save. When you have low needs, your savings have a much higher
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Zero Hedge

Germany's Migrant Rape Crisis: Where Is The Public Outrage?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

  • Despite the mounting human toll, most of the crimes are still being downplayed by German authorities and the media, apparently to avoid fueling anti-immigration sentiments.
  • "The police are not interested in stigmatizing but rather in educating the public. The impression that we are engaging in censorship is devastating to the public's confidence in the police. Sharing information about suspects is also important for dev...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Companies Shift Exploration Tactics, Curb Spending (The Wall Street Journal)

In June, oil giant BP PLC announced what it deemed an “important” new discovery in Egypt.

It turned out to be a modest natural-gas find that didn’t even rank in the top 50 discoveries since 2012.

Gundlach Says ‘Look Out’ for...

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Phil's Favorites

Now it's an avalanche


Picture via Pixabay

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker

Reuters on the last week’s fund flows:

Mutual fund investors flooded stockpickers with redemption orders during the latest week, cashing out the most money in five years, Investment Company Institute data showed on Wednesday.

The investors pulled $16.9 billion from stock mutual funds in the seven days through Oct. 19, more than in any other week since August 2011, the trade group’s data showed.

By contrast, stock exchange-traded funds took in $2.4 billion. ETFs most...

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China's Q3 indicates cyclical stabilization, secular challenges

By Dan Steinbock. Originally published at ValueWalk.

According to the third-quarter data, China’s economy grew 6.7 percent for a third consecutive quarter. Critics claim otherwise. Yet, the real disagreement involves business cycles and secular trends.

China’s sequential growth is now at 7.2 percent; fastest in three years. Manufacturing and service sectors may have bottomed around 2015/16 and have risen since, while consumer price inflation rose to 1.9 percent last month. After seasonal adjustments, exports and imports reflect stabilization as well.

Beijing’s effort to rebalance the economy toward consumption and innovation has begun. In the first three quarters of the year, consumption accounted for 70 percent of GDP growth, almost twice as much as 37 percent attributed to investment.


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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Soars As China Launches Crackdown On Wealth-Management Products

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After trading in a tight range for much of the summer, coiled within a $100 range around the mid-$500s, over the past several weeks bitcoin has once again started to push higher, closely tracking the decline in the Chinese Yuan as shown below.

However, the most recent burst in bitcoin activity, which sent it surging by over $20 overnight, has little to do with any moves in the official Chinese currency, which recently...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Connect Series Webinar Oct 2016

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We cover the most dominating themes in the markets and share pattern analysis and perspectives to empower members to make better investment decisions.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.


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Chart School

Tech Hold Breakout,.but S&P Wedge Bound

Courtesy of Declan.

It was a mixed day for indices. Large Caps remain bound by wedge support/resistance, but Tech broke upside yesterday from similar wedges and held those breakout today.

There was little change for the S&P over the last couple of days. The one technical change was the MACD trigger 'buy' as other technicals stayed on the bearish side.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq cleared wedge resistance yesterday, and was able to hang on to the breakout despite today's loss. It too enjoyed a MACD trigger 'buy', but had an On-Bal...

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Members' Corner

A Lack of Faith, Disturbing?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Over at Philstockworld... High Finance for Real People - Fun and Profits...   

Phil – "long-term rates are suddenly ticking up as bond buyers have lost faith that the Central Banksters will be able to keep a lid on inflation"More so a rebirth of hope for much needed monetary flows in the form of "dollars" and some form of economic recovery rising in the distance.  Good luck there.  

By now those rogue bond traders should know the power of the dark side and all the carnage which that widow makers trade has left in its wake. J...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of October 24th,2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...

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Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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PSW is more than just stock talk!


We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more! features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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