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Live Feed From Scotland As The Results Start Trickling In

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The night is very young as the Scottish votes are currently being tabulated. For now, the only disclosed data, aside from the previously announced YouGov prediction of a No victory is information on the turnout, which by most counts will surpass an unheard of in the US 90%.

The initial results are in:

  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: CLACKMANNANSHIRE 16,350 YES, 19,036 NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: CLACKMANNANSHIRE YES 46.2%, NO 53.8%
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: ORKNEY 4,883 YES, 10,004 NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: ORKNEY 32.8% YES, 67.2% NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: SHETLAND 5,669 YES, 9,951 NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: SHETLAND 36% YES, 64% NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: EILEAN SIAR 9,195 YES, 10,544 NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: EILEAN SIAR 47% YES, 53% NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: INVERCLYDE 27,243 YES, 27,329 NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: INVERCLYDE 49.9% YES, 50.1% NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: RENFREWSHIRE 55,466 YES, 62,067 NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: RENFREWSHIRE 47.2% YES, 52.8% NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: DUNDEE 53,620 YES, 39, 880 NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: DUNDEE 57% YES, 43% NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: W. DUNBARTONSHIRE 33,720 YES, 28, 776 NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: W. DUNBARTONSHIRE 54% YES, 46% NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: MIDLOTHIAN 26,370 YES, 33,972 NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: MIDLOTHIAN 44% YES, 56% NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: E. LOTHIAN 27,467 YES, 44,283 NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: E. LOTHIAN 38.3% YES, 61.7% NO 
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: STIRLING 25,010 YES, 37,153 NO
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: STIRLING 40.2% YES, 59.8% NO

 

A picture paints a thousand words…

Some of the most recent updates:


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The Next Crisis – Part one

Courtesy of Golem XIV

The present global financial ‘crisis’ began in 2007-8. It is not nearly over. And that simple fact is a problem. Not because of the life-choking misery it inflicts on the lives of millions who had no part in its creation, but because the chances of another crisis beginning before this one ends, is increasing. What ‘tools’ – those famous tools the central bankers are always telling us they have – will our dear leaders use to tackle a new crisis when all those tools are already being used to little or no positive effect on this one?

I think it is worth remembering how many financial crises we have had since the economy became globally interconnected and since we began the deregulation of finance and the roll back of all Great Depression safeguards under Reagan and Clinton.  It’s also worth noticing that the causes and pattern of the various crises have an unpleasant ring of familiarity about them – as in – the bank lobbyists making sure nothing gets learned and nothing gets changed.

In the 80′s there were four financial crises: The Latin American crisis caused by those countries borrowing and the global banks agreeing to lend them far too much (too much lending to people who couldn’t afford it – check), the American Savings and Loan (S&L) crisis when American S&L’s made too many bad, long-term and leveraged loans relying on rolling over and over short-term loans to fund it all (reliance on short-term liquidity to cover massive loan books of dodgy loans – check) , and the 1987 Stock market crash when the system of global debt had its first major modern global paroxysm (systemic contagion – check) . And before the dust had even settled from that we had the Junk Bond collapse ( Too much junk – check. $400 billion in junk bonds were issued in 2013 alone). In the 90s there were two more crises (if one ignores the Mexican currency devaluation): The Asia currency crisis (a replay of the Latin Crisis with the same global banks doing the same lending to different corrupt or stupid leaders who agreed to loans on behalf of  people who couldn’t afford to pay back – ie nothing learned at all  - check) and the Dot Com…
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What Happens When Scottish Voters Give It Their 110%, According To CNN

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

What is most disturbing is that this photo is just as likely to be real as fake.

from @StigAbell





“We Are About To Arm Some Rebels And Drone Some More Folks” – Obama Statement On Passage Of Syrian Strategy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Moments ago, the Senate passed a $1 trillion government-funding bill that according to the Hill also gave the president new authority to battle the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.  The legislation, which has now been approved by both chambers of Congress, now heads to the White House for Obama?s signature.  While the stopgap bill will prevent a government shutdown on Oct. 1, the vote will be remembered for a controversial provision that allows Obama to start a new training program for rebel fighters in Syria.  In other words, not only will Obama arm some folks, he will also drone some other folks, the same folks he was arming a year ago.

Live statement below:

* * *

Incidentally, those still confused where ISIS got their weapons from, here is the NYT with the explanation, so let’s arm ISIS just a little more…

ISIS has stolen hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of weapons and equipment from Iraqi and Syrian military installations. It has also intercepted supplies en route to Syrian rebel groups from foreign governments. Conflict Armament Research, a private firm that investigates arms trafficking, has tracked small arms and rockets used by ISIS that appear to have been provided to other combatants by Saudi Arabia and the United States.

Among the weapons that Conflict Armament Research examined were M16 and M4 rifles stamped “Property of U.S. Govt.” Such weapons are also in the hands of irregular Shiite forces in Iraq, where the United States provided hundreds of thousands of small arms to supportive forces during its long occupation.

Conflict Armament Research found M79 antitank rockets from the former Yugoslavia that were identical to M79 rockets provided by Saudi Arabia to rebels in Syria.





Australia Stunned After ISIS Plan To “Publicly Behead Random Person In Sydney” Foiled

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

First, led by a “British-speaking” murderer, ISIS released beheading videos of US journalists. Then ISIS releases video of a British journalist hostage ‘news’ report to expose “the truth,” and now, Australian police have raided hundreds of homes foiling a direct ISIS provocation to publicly behead a random citizen in Sydney. As Reuters reports, more than 800 police were involved in the pre-dawn security operation in Sydney and Brisbane, which was described as the largest in Australian history. A 22-year-old Sydney man was arrest, after links were found to top ISIS recruiter Mohammad Baryalei that PM Abbot stated were “clearly designed to shock and horrify, perhaps terrify” the community.

 

 

As The Sydney Morning Herald reports,

Top terrorist recruiter Mohammad Baryalei is behind an Islamic State plot to murder Australians on video, police say, sparking the nation’s biggest ever counter-terrorism raids and prompting warnings of a high alert for a further 18 months.

 

NSW and federal police as well as ASIO officers raided homes across Sydney and Brisbane on Thursday morning, arresting 15 men, some of them as young as 18 or 19.

 

They swooped amid fears for the public’s safety after Baryalei allegedly spoke by phone with Omarjan Azari on Tuesday to discuss a plan to kidnap and murder – presumably by beheading – a random person on camera, the footage of which would then be posted online by the Islamic State’s sophisticated and powerful propaganda wing.

 

Australian Federal Police assistant commissioner Neil Gaughan told Fairfax Media that the terrorism alert level would have to stay on “high” despite the arrests – perhaps for a further 18 months.

 

“There is no doubt in my view the terror alert needs to stay high for the foreseeable future. We have seen an unprecedented increase in activity over the last 12 months,” he said.

 

“And it’s based on a lot of factors – ISIL, the declaration of the caliphate, an intent by people to do things in support of that, people continuing to recruit … We are in totally uncharted waters. I do not see any respite in the next 18 months.”

As Reuters adds,

Up to 160 Australians have either been involved in fighting


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First YouGov Poll Predicts The Scottish “No’s” Have It With 54% Of The Vote

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With a reported turnout above 90% (over 4.2 million votes), YouGov reports its exit polls at…

  • *YOUGOV REFERENDUM PREDICTION: YES 46%, NO 54%
  • *SCOTLAND VOTES: YOUGOV CHIEF SEES 99% CHANCE OF `NO’ WINNING

It appears, as somewhat expected, that Fife will be the key swing constituency.

 

 

*  *  *

GBP was pushing higher into the polls

*  *  *

Addiitional declaration times are throughout the evening…

 

With Credit Suisse guesstimates of YES/NO:

 

Rumors are active..

Remember…





With A Market Cap Of $168 Billion, Alibaba Is Bigger Than…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With a market capitalization of $168 billion after its pricing at $68/share, the upper end of the range which makes this the largest US IPO in history and would be the largest in the world if the greenshoe is exercised, Alibaba, while not a member of the S&P 500 (at least not immediately), will have a market cap that is larger than the following index members:

 

In fact, at that market cap (which will surely rise after its break for trading tomorrow), there are only 22 companies in the entire S&P 500 who will be larger than Alibaba, among which the usual mega suspects, AAPL, XOM, GOOG, MSFT, BRK, but also JPM, Facebook, Pfizer, Verizon and Bank of America.

However, assuming BABA rises by 10% tomorrow, it will surpass such tech titans as Intel, and Oracle, now ex Larry Ellison, on its first day of trading.

Sustainble? We shall see.

****

See also: Alibaba Overtakes Amazon as Most Highly Valued Online Retailer





S&P 500 Snapshot: Record Intraday and Closing Highs

Courtesy of Doug Short.

With yesterday’s gaming of the FOMC statement and press conference behind us, the S&P 500 got back into the business of setting new highs. Today’s half-percent gain, 0.49% to be precise, set a record close just below its intraday high, which was also a record.

The yield on the 10-year Note closed at 2.63%, up bp from yesterday’s close. It is now 29 bps above its 2014 low.

Here is a daily chart of the index. Volume was close to its 50-day moving average.

Here is the SPY ETF. After yesterday’s Fed-triggered trading game, volume returned to the vicinity of its average.

For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

Click to View
Click for a larger image





Alibaba Prices At $68: Here’s What Happens Next

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The deal is done…

*ALIBABA SAID TO PRICE IPO AT $68: CNBC CITES DOW JONES

At that price, BABA is valued at ~$170 billion – higher than 95% of the S&P 500 and the biggest US IPO ever at $21.8 billion (bigger than Visa’s $19.7bn debut in 2008).

So if you want to buy some BABA shares, here’s what happens next…

The much anticipated Alibaba IPO will begin trading tomorrow under the symbol BABA. To ensure efficient execution of your orders, please be advised of the following:

  • Orders can only be entered after 4:00 pm today.
  • All orders entered to participate in the Open tomorrow require a Limit. No Market Orders will be accepted.
  • It is anticipated trading will commence at approx. 11 am EST; however, this time is dependent on NYSE bank instruction to its brokers

YHOO shares were rising into the news (after a weak day)…

 





You Know Your Country Is Broke When…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,

Imagine coming home from work and finding that a group of men have broken into your house. What do you do?

I have a gratified feeling that for an increasing number of our readers, the answer would be to draw their firearm and defend the home.

But it’s safe to say most folks would… call the police.

This happened in Greece recently, as recounted to me in an email by a colleague who was visiting his family in a rural, seaside town in the country’s southern mainland.

There’s recently been rash of home burglaries in the village– a remarkable turn of events for a place accustomed to leaving windows and doors unlocked.

In one instance, a local resident came home and spied a thief in progress; he immediately called the police to dispatch a unit as quickly as possible. And the police reportedly told the man, “We haven’t enough fuel to come out there right now.”

It shouldn’t come as a surprise to hear that public services are being cut back in Greece given how messed up their economy is.

But protecting citizens against crime is supposedly one of the sacrosanct terms of the social contract.

Citizens around the world have exchanged their freedom for security. It’s a completely absurd trade. . . but nevertheless it’s happened.

And in doing so, governments have essentially monopolized the security business. By and large, police and security are public services provide exclusively by the government.

And supposedly the taxes that we all pay go to fund those services. . . ensuring that someone from the government will come and ‘save’ us when the bad guys approach.

That’s the promise, at least.

But in difficult economic times, bankrupt governments routinely set aside promises they’ve made to taxpayers.

They slash pension (social security) benefits or use funky gorilla math to understate cost of living increases.

They completely violate the sacred vow of maintaining a strong, sound currency.

And they drastically reduce or even eliminate funding for critical services that people have come to depend on.

Of course, this situation isn’t unique to Greece. Every bankrupt nation reaches this point sooner or later.

Recently in [bankrupt] Argentina, a single police officer was left in charge of an entire jail in the Buenos
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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Zero Hedge

How Good Decision Making can Save Your Ass

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Capitalist Exploits.

By: Chris Tell at http://capitalistexploits.at/

A little while ago I shared 6 ways to improve decision making. In response I received a number of comments, the most insightful of which I'd like to share with you today. My main point in the previous article was that information, together with a strong filtering process, form the basis for making sound decisions.

I love these emails. You write essentially about what it all comes down to which i...



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Chart School

The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: I've updated this series to include the data in yesterday's Federal Reserve release of the 2014 Z.1 Financial Accounts for Q2. Based on data extrapolations through the current close, the Q Ratio is 70% above its arithmetic mean and 83% above its geometric mean. The current valuation level is surpassed only by the turn-of-the-century Tech Bubble.

The Q Ratio is a popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock market developed by Nobel Laureate James Tobin. It's a fairly simple concept, but laborious to calculate. The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. Fortunately, the government does the work of accumulating the data for the calculation. The numbers are supplied in the Federal Reserve ...

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Phil's Favorites

The Next Crisis - Part one

Courtesy of Golem XIV

The present global financial ‘crisis’ began in 2007-8. It is not nearly over. And that simple fact is a problem. Not because of the life-choking misery it inflicts on the lives of millions who had no part in its creation, but because the chances of another crisis beginning before this one ends, is increasing. What ‘tools’ - those famous tools the central bankers are always telling us they have – will our dear leaders use to tackle a new crisis when all those tools are already being used to little or no positive effect on this one?

I think it is worth remembering how many ...



more from Ilene

Market Shadows

Selling PVD

Selling PVD

Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones Provida S.A. (PVD) shares will not be trading on the NY Stock Exchange after today. Tomorrow, shares will be harder to sell. Strangely, I wasn't able to find information on the internet, but Paul just sent me a copy of the email he received from Interactive Brokers.

We're selling PVD out of the Virtual Portfolio today at $87.18. 

More details:

From: Interactive Brokers   dated July 18, 2014

Holders of AFP Provida S.A. American Depository Receipts (ADR) are advised that the Company has elected to terminate the Deposit Agreement effective 2014-09-18.

As of the te...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Promotions

Last Chance! See The 'Google-Like' Trading Algorithm 'Live' TODAY

Traders and Investors,

RSVP NOW to attend a special presentation TODAY at Noon or 9:00 pm ET, where you’ll see a powerful trading algorithm that’s been tested and proven to return phenomenal results on a consistent basis. 

In fact, it has an 82% win rate…

And had you only traded the conservative alerts recommended by the algorithm since inception, you would have experienced portfolio gains of more than 200%!

Register NOW and secure your virtual seat for one of Today’s LIVE presentations.

When you register for the webinar, you’ll also get instant access to following trading videos:

  • Instant access to FOUR Quick-Start Expectancy...


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Insider Scoop

Nomura Cautious On Netflix, Inc. Estimates

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NFLX Netflix, Inc. Technicals Suddenly Weakening UPDATE: Netflix Teams with Legendary Television for 'Love' Get Ready for a Hot September for Stocks (Fox Business)

Analysts at Nomura lowered their fiscal year 2015 and 2016 EPS estimates for Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) due to greater-than-expected interna...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls go down swinging, refusing to give up much ground

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Although the stock market displayed weakness last week as I suggested it would, bulls aren’t going down easily. In fact, they’re going down swinging, absorbing most of the blows delivered by hesitant bears. Despite holding up admirably when weakness was both expected and warranted, and although I still see higher highs ahead, I am still not convinced that we have seen the ultimate lows for this pullback. A number of signs point to more weakness ahead.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-r...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 15th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Enjoy!

[Sign in with your PSW user name and password, or take a free trial here.]

Image courtesy of Business Insider, Jay Yarow's This Is The Best Description Of How Apple's Business Works Right Now.

 

...

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Option Review

Big Prints In VIX Calls

The CBOE Vix Index is in positive territory on Friday morning as shares in the S&P 500 Index move slightly lower. Currently the VIX is up roughly 2.75% on the session at 13.16 as of 11:35 am ET. Earlier in the session big prints in October expiry call options caught our attention as one large options market participants appears to have purchased roughly 106,000 of the Oct 22.0 strike calls for a premium of around $0.45 each. The VIX has not topped 22.0 since the end of 2012, but it would not take such a dramatic move in the spot index in order to lift premium on the contracts. The far out-of-the-money calls would likely increase in value in the event that S&P500 Index stocks slip in the near term. The VIX traded up to a 52-week high of 21.48 back in February. Next week’s release of the FOMC meeting minutes f...



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Digital Currencies

Making Sense of Bitcoin

Making Sense of Bitcoin

By James Black at International Man

Despite the various opinions on Bitcoin, there is no question as to its ultimate value: its ability to bypass government restrictions, including economic embargoes and capital controls, to transmit quasi-anonymous money to anyone anywhere.

Opinions differ as to what constitutes "money."

The English word "money" derives from the Latin word "moneta," which means to "mint." Historically, "money" was minted in the form of precious metals, most notably gold and silver. Minted metal was considered "money" because it possessed luster, was scarce, and had perceive...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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