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Vehicle Miles Driven: A Structural Change in Our Driving Behavior

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Commission has released the latest report on Traffic Volume Trends, data through June.

Travel on all roads and streets changed by 1.4% (3.7 billion vehicle miles) for June 2014 as compared with June 2013 (see report). The less volatile 12-month moving average is up 0.13% month-over-month. If we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) is up 0.06% month-over-month and down 0.1% year-over-year.

Here is a chart that illustrates this data series from its inception in 1970. I’m plotting the “Moving 12-Month Total on ALL Roads,” as the DOT terms it. See Figure 1 in the PDF report, which charts the data from 1990. My start date is 1971 because I’m incorporating all the available data from earlier DOT spreadsheets. As we can readily see, the post-recession pattern suggests a structural change in our driving habits.

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The rolling 12-month miles driven contracted from its all-time high for 39 months during the stagflation of the late 1970s to early 1980s, a double-dip recession era. The most recent decline has lasted for 79 months and counting — a new record, but the trough to date was in November 2011, 48 months from the all-time high.

The Population-Adjusted Reality

Total Miles Driven, however, is one of those metrics that should be adjusted for population growth to provide the most meaningful analysis, especially if we want to understand the historical context. We can do a quick adjustment of the data using an appropriate population group as the deflator. I use the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Civilian Noninstitutional Population Age 16 and Over (FRED series CNP16OV). The next chart incorporates that adjustment with the growth shown on the vertical axis as the percent change from 1971.

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Clearly, when we adjust for population growth, the Miles-Driven metric takes on a much darker look. The nominal 39-month dip that began in May 1979 grows to 61 months, slightly more than five years. The trough was a 6% decline from the previous peak.

The population-adjusted all-time high dates from June…
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S&P 500 Snapshot: A New Record Above 2000

Courtesy of Doug Short.

In yesterday’s update I asked the question “Will the S&P 500 move back above 2000 prior to the extended Labor Day weekend?” It did indeed, closing today at a record high at 2003.37. The index finished the month with a gain of 3.77% gain, the biggest monthly advance since February’s 4.31% and the best August since the 6.07% surge in 2000.

The yield on the 10-year Note closed at 2.35%, up 1 bp from yesterday’s close.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the week.

Here is a monthly chart of the index. Trading volume for the month was the lowest in nearly 10 years.

For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

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Benzinga’s M&A Chatter for Thursday August 28, 2014

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Thursday August 27, 2014:

Monomoy Capital Partners to Acquire Cobra Electronics for $4.30/Share

The Deal:
Cobra Electronics (NASDAQ: COBR) and Monomoy Capital Partners II announced Thursday that an affiliate of Monomoy will acquire all of the outstanding shares of common stock of Cobra Electronics for $4.30 per share in cash. An affiliate of Monomoy will commence a tender offer to purchase all outstanding shares of common stock of Cobra Electronics at $4.30 per share in cash within ten business days.

The deal is expected to close in Q4 2014.

Cobra Electronics closed Thursday at $4.28, a gain of almost 8%.

Report Deutsche Telekom Open to Talks on T-Mobile Sale at $35/Share

The Rumor:
Shares of T-Mobile US (NYSE: TMUS) spiked higher Thursday, on a report from Bloomberg, that parent company Deutsche Telekom (OTC: DTEKY) would consider an offer of $35 per share for the nations’s number four mobile carrier. T-Mobile had rejected a $33 per share offer from Frances’s Iliad (ILIAY) in late July.

Iliad reportedly had sought partners for its bid, following to rejection, including Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), but that help never materialized. Sprint (NYSE: S) parent Softbank (OTC: SFTBY), ended its pursuit of T-Mobile, soon after the Iliad bid surfaced. That deal faced uncertain regulatory issues.

T-Mobile closed Thursday at $29.84, a gain of more than 1%.

EZchip Shares Rise on Report of Conference Cancellations

The Conference Cancellations:
Shares of EZchip Semiconductor (NASDAQ: EZCH) surged higher Thursday, on the report that the Israel-based company had cancelled out of multiple conferences. Stocks move on such reports, in the belief that cancellations could mean a takeover deal is in the works.

A spokesperson for EZchip responded to Benzinga in an email, that the company was supposed to present at Roth, Citi and Brean conferences next week, but an unexpected matter came up requiring management to remain in Israel. He was unable to elaborate on the reason.

EZchip Semiconductor shares closed Thursday at $27.96, a gain of more than 10%.

Posted-In: News Rumors M&A Movers





UPDATE: Genesco Posts Downbeat Q2 Results, Lowers Full-Year Forecast

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related GCO
#PreMarket Primer: Friday, August 29: Japanese Economy Proves Resilient
Markets Reverse Early Morning Losses; Still Lower On The Day

Shares of Genesco (NYSE: GCO) dipped more than 7.5% in pre-market trading after the company reported downbeat second-quarter results and lowered its earnings forecast for the full year.

The Nashville, Tennessee-based company posted quarterly earnings of $4.7 million, or $0.20 per share, compared to $8.3 million, or $0.36 per share, in the year-ago period. Excluding certain items, its earnings from continuing operations fell to $0.34 per share from $0.56 per share.

Its net sales gained 7.1% to $615.5 million. However, analysts were expecting earnings of $0.55 per share on revenue of $614.96 million.

Genesco’s same-store sales rose 2% in the quarter. Genesco’s Journeys group reported a 5% rise in same-store sales, while the Lids Sports Group’s same-store sales dropped 2%. The Schuh Group’s same-store sales gained 1%, while the Johnston & Murphy Group’s same-store sales climbed 2% in the period.

Genesco’s gross margin shrank to 49% from 49.2%, while input costs rose 7.5% to $313.7 million.

Robert J. Dennis, chairman, president and chief executive officer of Genesco, said, “We are disappointed with our second quarter earnings performance. Solid comparable sales gains and a strong topline performance in our direct businesses were not enough to offset a sales and gross margin shortfall versus plan at the Lids Sports Group. The third quarter is off to a solid start, with consolidated comparable sales for the Company up 4% through August 23, 2014.”

Genesco now expects full-year earnings of $5.10 to $5.20 per share, versus its earlier forecast of $5.40 to $5.55 per share.

Genesco’s shares tumbled 7.66% to $81.88 in pre-market trading.

Posted-In: profitEarnings News Guidance





UPDATE: SeaWorld Entertainment Posts Downbeat Q2 Results, Lowers FY14 Outlook

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Shares of SeaWorld Entertainment (NYSE: SEAS) dipped more than 10% in pre-market trading after the company reported downbeat second-quarter results and lowered its full-year forecast.

The Orlando, Florida-based company posted a quarterly profit of $37.3 million, or $0.43 per share, versus a year-ago loss of $15.9 million, or $0.18 per share. Excluding non-recurring items, the company earned $0.43 per share.

Its sales slipped 1% to $405.2 million from $411.3 million. However, analysts were expecting earnings of $0.60 per share on revenue of $448.37 million.

Its revenue per capita fell 1.8% in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $126.1 million from $127.0 million. Attendance rose 0.3% to 6.6 million.

For 2014, SeaWorld now projects sales to drop 6% to 7% versus $1.46 billion in 2013.

SeaWorld also announced a $250 million share repurchase program effective January 1, 2015.

“We were pleased to report attendance growth in the quarter despite a challenging industry and competitive environment and a tough comparison to the prior year quarter, which included the attendance benefit from opening our largest expansion ever at SeaWorld Orlando. The increase in attendance results from the shift in the timing of Easter and favorable weather, partially offset by lower attendance at our destination parks,” Jim Atchison, CEO and President of SeaWorld Entertainment said.

SeaWorld shares tumbled 10.12% to $25.30 in pre-market trading.

Posted-In: profitEarnings News Guidance Buybacks





UPDATE: SEC Issues: ‘Bank of America Admits Disclosure Failures to Settle SEC Charges’

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced a settlement in which Bank of America admits that it failed to inform investors during the financial crisis about known uncertainties to future income from its exposure to repurchase claims on mortgage loans.

Bank of America also is resolving securities fraud charges that the SEC filed last year related to a residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) offering.

Bank of America has agreed to settle the two cases by paying $245 million as part of a major global settlement announced today by the U.S. Department of Justice in which Bank of America will pay $16.65 billion to resolve various investigations involving violations of laws regulated by other federal agencies.

“Bank of America failed to make accurate and complete disclosure to investors and its illegal conduct kept investors in the dark,” said Rhea Kemble Dignam, regional director of the SEC’s Atlanta office. “Requiring an admission of wrongdoing as part of Bank of America’s agreement to resolve the SEC charges filed today provides an additional level of accountability for its violation of the federal securities laws.”

In new charges filed by the SEC today in a settled administrative proceeding, Bank of America admits that it failed to disclose known uncertainties regarding potential increased costs related to mortgage loan repurchase claims stemming from more than $2 trillion in residential mortgage sales from 2004 through the first half of 2008 by the bank and certain companies it acquired. In connection with these sales, Bank of America made contractual representations and warranties about the underlying quality of the mortgage loans and underwriting. In the event that a loan buyer claimed a breach of a representation or warranty, the bank could be obligated to repurchase the related mortgage loan at its outstanding unpaid principal balance.

According to the SEC’s order, Regulation S-K requires public companies like Bank of America to disclose in the Management’s Discussion & Analysis (MD&A) section of…
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Benzinga’s M&A Chatter for Thursday August 14, 2014

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Thursday August 14, 2014:

Heartland Payment Systems Acquires Leaf

The Deal:
Heartland Payment Systems (NYSE: HPY) announced Thursday, that it acquired Leaf, which created a POS tablet specifically designed for commerce. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Heartland Payment Systems shares closed Thursday at $47.17, a gain of $0.01%.

OmniVision Receives Non Binding Proposal for $29/Share

The Offer:
OmniVision Technologies (NASDAQ: OVTI) announced Thursday, that its board of directors has received a non-binding proposal in a letter dated August 12, 2014 from Hua Capital Management, indicating that a group of investors led by HCM proposes to acquire all of the outstanding shares of common stock of OmniVision for $29.00 per share in cash. HCM is headed by Dr. Xisheng Zhang of Hua Capital Management, whose previous company, Accelicon was acquired by Agilent in 2011.

OmniVision’s board of directors is reviewing HCM’s proposal.

OmniVision Technologies closed at $28.29 Thursday, a gain of 15%.

Report Shutterfly Receiving Competing Bids from PE Firms

Shares of Shutterfly (NASDAQ: SFLY) surged higher Thursday, on a report from The Deal that the company is receiving competing bids from private equity companies. The deal reportedly will close this year.

The Rumor:Bloomberg reported on July 2, that Shutterfly had hired Qatalyst to handle a potential sale. Deal Reporter said on July 30, that Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) were looking at Shutterfly as a potential takeover target.

Shutterfly closed Thursday at $49.67, a gain of more than 4%.

Coca-Cola Acquires 16.7% Equity Stake in Monster Beverage for $2.15B

The Deal:
The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) and Monster Beverage (NASDAQ: MNST) announced Thursday that they have entered into agreements for a long-term strategic partnership, under which Coca-Cola will acquire an approximately 16.7% stake in Monster for $2.15 billion. Coke will have two directors on Monster’s Board and will become Monster’s preferred distribution partner globally.

The deal is expected to close in late 2014 or early 2015.

Benzinga reported back in 2012, that Coca-Cola might be planning a takeover of the energy drink company.

Monster Beverage closed Thursday at $71.65, and traded as high as $97.48 after-hours on the news. Coca-Cola ended the regular session at $40.18 and traded as high as $40.82 after-hours.

Posted-In: News Rumors Management Insider Trades M&A Movers





Markets Fluctuate; Big Lots Profit Beats Estimates

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BZSUM
Splunk Jumps On Strong Results; Kandi Technologies Shares Slide
#PreMarket Primer: Friday, August 29: Japanese Economy Proves Resilient

Following the market opening Friday, the Dow traded down 0.08 percent to 17,066.27 while the NASDAQ surged 0.11 percent to 4,562.74. The S&P also rose, gaining 0.05 percent to 1,997.66.

Leading and Lagging Sectors

Technology shares rose by 0.22 percent on Friday. Meanwhile, top gainers in the sector included The9 Limited (NASDAQ: NCTY), up 34.8 percent, and Avago Technologies (NASDAQ: AVGO), up 8.3 percent.

In trading on Friday, cyclical consumer goods & services shares were relative laggards, down on the day by about 0.20 percent. Top decliners in the sector included Kandi Technolgies Group, (NASDAQ: KNDI), down 8.8 percent, and Pacific Sunwear of California (NASDAQ: PSUN), off 6 percent.

Top Headline

Big Lots (NYSE: BIG) reported better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter earnings and raised its FY14 earnings forecast.

The Columbus, Ohio-based company posted quarterly earnings of $19.9 million, or $0.36 per share, compared to $18.1 million, or $0.31 per share, in the year-ago period. Its profit from continuing operations came in at $0.31 per share. The company had projected earnings of $0.24 to $0.30 per share.

Its net sales gained 1.2% to $1.2 billion. However, analysts were expecting earnings of $0.30 per share on revenue of $1.2 billion.

Equities Trading UP

Criteo SA (NASDAQ: CRTO) shares shot up 19.03 percent to $36.48 following a Les Echos report that Publicis has restarted talks to buy the company.

Shares of Veeva Systems (NYSE: VEEV) got a boost, shooting up 15.63 percent to $28.86 after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter results and issued a strong third-quarter outlook.

Splunk (NASDAQ: SPLK) shares were also up, gaining 15.57 percent to $52.34 after the company reported upbeat results for the fiscal second quarter and lifted…
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NY Post Reports Sycamore Partners Considering Bid for Sears Canada

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Sycamore Partners, which acquired retailers Jones Group, Talbots and Hot Topic, is now considering a takeover bid for Sears Canada (OTC: SEARF), according to a report from the the NY Post. Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) Chairman Eddie Lampert has indicated he wants $2 billion for the 176 stores in Canada, but sources say he might consider a lower offer.

View full article https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZbaRd9gO3Q

Posted-In: NY PostNews Rumors Asset Sales Management M&A





EZchip Shares In Play Following Cancellation Of Investor Conference

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related EZCH
Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Thursday August 28, 2014
Earnings Scheduled For August 13, 2014

Shares of EZchip Semiconductor (NASDAQ: EZCH) are experiencing a strong rise in price following an announcement from a company spokesperson, stating that the company will not be present at an upcoming investor conference.

In the past, traders have sometimes speculated that canceling of such events could indicate something larger than the conference itself, such as an upper level management change or even a large deal.

Investors may remember a similar event earlier this year in which Darden Restaurants cancelled investor conferences in order to meet activist investors interested in taking a stake in the company.

Likewise in March, Audience cancelled an investor conference, then a few days later announced a $15 million share buyback.

Shares of EZ Chip traded recently at $26.45, up 8.4 percent.

Posted-In: Audience Darden ResturantsNews Rumors Movers & Shakers General





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Phil's Favorites

Markets signaling return of economic weakness in China

Markets signaling return of economic weakness in China

Courtesy of SoberLook.com

In addition to property market challenges and the unexpected slowdown in manufacturing expansion, we continue to see markets signaling a significant loss of momentum in China's economic growth. Earlier in the year the country's economic trajectory was quite uncertain. This was followed by a strong pickup in manufacturing activity early this summer and economists suggested that the worst is over. But it seems that China is once again facing significant headwinds.

...

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Zero Hedge

French President Says "There Is Risk Of War" As Europe Plans Additional Russia Sanctions

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

For months Europe had thought that mere verbal (and hollow) threats, populist posturing and propaganda would be enough to force Russia's Putin to back off and withdraw from the endless Ukraine escalation, into a Kremlin cocoon with his tail between his legs. What they didn't anticipate was that Putin would in no way back down (as that would be seen as defeat and weakness by his numerous internal foes), nor would have have to: with Russia providing a third of European gas and with winter approaching, Russia had all the trumps cards from day one. Furthermore, as a result of escalating trade wars it is not Russia's economy that is hurting but Europe, which is on the verge of a histo...



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Chart School

Moving Averages: Month-End Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Valid until the market close on September 30, 2014

The S&P 500 closed July with a monthly gain of 3.77%. All three S&P 500 MAs and four of the five the Ivy Portfolio ETF MAs are signaling "Invested".

The Ivy Portfolio

The table below shows the current 10-month simple moving average (SMA) signal for each of the five ETFs featured in The Ivy Portfolio. I've also included a table of 12-month SMAs for the same ETFs for this popular alternative strategy.

For a facinating analysis of the Ivy Portfolio strategy, see this article by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo:



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Option Review

Puts Active On Buffalo Wild Wings

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (Ticker: BWLD) shares are in positive territory in early-afternoon trading on Thursday, reversing earlier losses to stand up 0.50% on the session at $148.50 as of 12:15 pm ET. Options volume on the restaurant chain is running approximately three times the daily average level due to heavy put activity in the October expiry contracts. It looks like one or more traders are buying the Oct 140/145 put spread at a net premium of roughly $1.45 per contract. As of the time of this writing, the spread has traded approximately 3,000 times against very little open interest at either striking price. The put spread may be a hedge to protect a long stock position against a roughly 6% pullback in the price of the underlying through October expiration, or an outright bearish play anticipating a dip in BWLD shares in the next couple of months. The spread makes money at expiration if shares in BWLD decline 3.3% from the current price of $148.50 to breach the breakeven point...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

Six Companies Push Tax Rules Most

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Gradient Senior Analyst Nicholas Yee reports on six companies that are using a variety of techniques to shift pretax profits to lower-tax areas. Featured in this USA Today, article, the companies include CELG, ALTR, VMW, NVDA, LRCX, and SNPS.

Six Companies Push Tax Rules Most

Excerpt:

Nobody likes to pay taxes. But some companies are taking cutting their tax bil...



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Digital Currencies

Disgraced Mt Gox CEO Goes For Second Try With Web-Hosting Service (And No, Bitcoin Not Accepted)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Mt Gox may be long gone in the annals of bankruptcy, but its founder refuses to go gentle into that insolvent night. And, as CoinDesk reports, the disgraced former CEO of the one-time premier bitcoin trading platform has decided to give it a second try by launching new web hosting service called Forever.net and is registered under both Karpeles’ name and that of Tibanne, the parent company of Mt Gox.

From the company profile:

“TIBANNE Co.Ltd. ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 25th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

The latest issue of our weekly newsletter is available now. Click on Stock World Weekly and sign in with your user name and password. (Or take a free trial!)

#120692880 / gettyimages.com

 

...

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Market Shadows

Helen Davis Chaitman Reviews In Bed with Wall Street.

Author Helen Davis Chaitman is a nationally recognized litigator with a diverse trial practice in the areas of lender liability, bankruptcy, bank fraud, RICO, professional malpractice, trusts and estates, and white collar defense. In 1995, Ms. Chaitman was named one of the nation's top ten litigators by the National Law Journal for a jury verdict she obtained in an accountants' malpractice case. Ms. Chaitman is the author of The Law of Lender Liability (Warren, Gorham & Lamont 1990)... Since early 2009, Ms. Chaitman has been an outspoken advocate for investors in Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC (more here).

Helen Davis Chaitman Reviews In Bed with Wall Street. 

By Helen Davis Chaitman   

I confess: Larry D...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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