Archive for the ‘Immediately available to public’ Category

Monday Humor: Go ‘West’ Young Men

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

First Trump, now this…!?

h/t @MaxwellStrachan

Relive the moment…

Get More:

…and read on for the full transcript below:

Bro. Bro! Listen to the kids. First of all, thank you, Taylor, for being so gracious and giving me this award this evening.

And I often think back to the first day I met you also. You know I think about when I’m in the grocery store with my daughter and I have a really great conversation about fresh juice… and at the end they say, ’Oh, you’re not that bad after all!’ And like I think about it sometimes. … It crosses my mind a little bit like when I go to a baseball game and 60,000 people boo me. Crosses my mind a little bit.

And I think if I had to do it all over again what would I have done? Would I have worn a leather shirt? Would I have drank half a bottle of Hennessy and gave the rest of it to the audience? Ya’ll know ya’ll drank that bottle too! If I had a daughter at that time would I have went on stage and grabbed the mic from someone else’s? You know, this arena tomorrow it’s gonna be a completely different setup. Some concert, something like that. The stage will be gone. After that night, the stage was gone, but the effect that it had on people remained.

The … The problem was the contradiction. The contradiction is I do fight for artists, but in that fight I somehow was disrespectful to artists. I didn’t know how to say the right thing, the perfect thing. I just … I sat at the Grammys and saw Justin Timberlake and Cee-Lo lose. Gnarls Barkley and the FutureLove … SexyBack album … and Justin, I ain’t trying to put you on blast, but I saw that man in tears, bro. You know, and I was thinking, like, ’He deserved to win Album of the Year!'”

And this small box that we are as the entertainers of the evening … How could you explain that? Sometimes I feel like all this s–t they run about beef and all that? Sometimes I feel like I died for the artist’s opinion. For artists to be


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Stocks Suffer Biggest Monthly Drop In Five Years As Oil Spikes Most Since 1990

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Only one thing for it really…

Forget stocks, today was all about crude oil again…

WTI pushed into the green for August!!!

3 Bear markets and 3 Bull markets now in 2015 so far… perfectly tagging the 50-day moving-average today…

This is the biggest 3-day rise in WTI since 1990!!

Oil Volatility and credit markets were not squeezed into euphoria at all…

Trade accordingly!!

*  *  *

Having got that out of the way…Dow's worst monthly drop since May 2010..

and had an ugly close…

Stocks got some lift from the momo-igniters -but once NYMEX closed, it was over. Stocks traded in a relatiovely narrow range glued to VWAP after the overnight plunge… Small Caps outperformed as Nasdaq Underporformed…

But were glued to VWAP all day… on no volume

Futures markets giveus a better idea of the moves…NOTE -0 this is from the beginning of Friday's pathetic EOD ramp…

Once again complete chaos on VIX ETFs…

VIX had its biggest monthly jump in history…

For the month, it's been a wild ride!! but just look at how clustered the moves were…

Finacials & Enmergy and Healthcare (Biotech) were worst performers in August…

For all the excitment over FANG – August was a mixed bunch for them with FB and AMZN notably red…

With all the craziness in stocks, Treasury yields at the long-end ended the month practically unch… 2Y rose 8bps…

With some more notable weakness today (which was also seen in Bunds)…note once again selling weas in US session, buying in Asia and Europe…

The USD ended the day lower with some major swings in CAD…

As August's USD Index drop was the biggest in 4 months…

Commodities were insane today – led obviously by crude!

And on the month… perhaps most notably, the perfect recoupling of crude and gold on the month!!??

But we note that Gold (+3.5%) had its best month since January even as Silver dropped

Finally – amid all the chaos in August, it appears there is a safe-haven… Gold outperforms

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: We're gonna need Moar QE…





Preparing For A Potential Economic Collapse In October

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

There’s no question that the world economy has been shaky at best since the crash of 2008.

Yet, politicians, central banks, et al., have, since then, regularly announced that “things are picking up.” One year, we hear an announcement of “green shoots.” The next year, we hear an announcement of “shovel-ready jobs.”

And yet, year after year, we witness the continued economic slump. Few dare call it a depression, but, if a depression can be defined as “a period of time in which most people’s standard of living drops significantly,” a depression it is.

Many people are surprised that no amount of stimulus and low interest rates have resulted in creating more jobs or more productivity. Were they a bit more cognizant of the simple, understandable principles of classical economics (as opposed to the complex theoretical principles of Keynesian invention), they’d recognise that, when debt reaches the level that it cannot be repaid, a major re-set of some sort must take place.

The major economies of the world have reached and exceeded that point and the debt problem is no mere anomaly that can be papered over. It is, instead, systemic. There must be a major forgiveness of debt, a default, or an economic collapse, or some combination of the three.

And so, those who recognise the inevitability of such an event have been storing their nuts away in preparation for an economic winter.

Those of us who warned of the 2008 crash in advance had been regarded as economic “Chicken Littles.” After the crash, we were largely resented as having made a “lucky guess.” Following that time, a moderate amount of credence has been allowed us, as we’ve recommended investments in real estate and precious metals (outside of those jurisdictions that are most at risk). However, since the Great Gold Correction (2011-2015), that begrudging credence has worn away and been replaced with renewed contempt.

To the naysayers, the 2001-2011 gold boom has been relegated to the investment dustbin and, to most punters, gold is clearly “over.”

Just as importantly, the most significant events of the “Greater Depression” that we had been predicting have clearly not yet come to pass. They’re still ahead of us. And, in this, we must confess that those…
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Recession Odds Surge To 47%, Highest Since 2011

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Once upon a time, when the market actually discounted the future path of the economy instead of being a lagging indicator to not only underlying macroeconomic conditions

… or simply frontrunning central bank policy, economists would use it to anticipate key economic inflection points such as recessions and recoveries. Which is also why the recent correction in the market has spooked all those conventional economists who still believe there is a “market” instead of a centrally-planned “wealth effect” policy tool, whose only purposes is to react to every increase in the global $14 trillion central bank balance sheet.

It is these economists, which also include the academics on the Fed’s staff, who took one look at the tumble in stocks in the past two weeks and decided that a rate hike may not be such a hot idea after all. Because if the market is sliding, it surely is telegraphing that not all is well with the economy and therefore tightening financial conditions would be suicidal for any central bank.

So assuming that after being wrong for 7 years about everything, economists are actually right about the market still having some discounting abilities left, what then is the market telegraphing? The answer, according to the Bank of America: the biggest surge in recessionary odds since 2011, which over the past few days have nearly hit a 50% probability of an economic slowdown.

BofA explains:

Recession probability from stock prices shoots higher: The more interesting and difficult question is whether the equity correction is signaling a deeper economic malaise. Equity prices can be leading indicators of recession. Indeed, Michael Hanson has developed a variety of probit models that use financial variables to estimate the risk of a recession. According to his model, the 15% annualized drop in the S&P500 index (over the past six months) is signaling a 47% risk of recession starting sometime in the next 12 months. That sounds fairly grim; however, we wouldn’t take the signal too literally. As Paul Samuelson famously quipped in the late 1960s: “The stock market has called nine of the last five recessions.” Our probit model sends a lot of false signals. For example, in 2011 the model saw a 59% chance of recession (which we argued strongly against at the time).

Here…
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Sep 1 – Global Stocks Extend On Rout

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Pivotfarm.

EMOTION MOVING MARKETS NOW: 14/100 EXTREME FEAR

PREVIOUS CLOSE: 14/100 EXTREME FEAR

ONE WEEK AGO: 3/100 EXTREME FEAR

ONE MONTH AGO: 20/100 EXTREME FEAR

ONE YEAR AGO: 42/100 FEAR

Put and Call Options: EXTREME FEAR During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 26.67% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. However, this is still among the highest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating extreme fear on the part of investors.

Market Volatility: FEAR The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at 28.43, 71.89% above its 50-day moving average and indicates that investors are concerned about the near-term values of their portfolios.

Stock Price Strength: EXTREME FEAR The number of stocks hitting 52-week lows is slightly greater than the number hitting highs and is at the lower end of its range, indicating extreme fear.

PIVOT POINTS

EURUSD | GBPUSD | USDJPY | USDCAD | AUDUSD | EURJPY | EURCHF | EURGBPGBPJPY | NZDUSD | USDCHF | EURAUD | AUDJPY 
 
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If The Fed Is Always Wrong, How Can Its Policies Ever Be Right?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Ralph Benko via Forbes.com,

One of the most curiously persistent surrealisms of Washington, DC is the reflexive deference given the Federal Reserve System. The Washington elite tends to accord more infallibility to the Fed than do Catholics the Pope.

Now comes one of the world’s top monetary reporters, Ylan Q. Mui, to make a delicate observation at the Washington Post’s Wonkblog, in Why nobody believes the Federal Reserve’s forecasts. Mui:

“The market recognizes that the Fed has repeatedly erred on the optimistic side,” said Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management. “Fool me 50 times, but not 51 times.”

Even the government’s official budget forecasters are dubious of the Fed’s own forecast.

This is a theme that Mui has touched on before. In 2013, she wrote Is the Fed’s crystal ball rose-colored?:

The big question is whether Fed officials can get it right after years in which they have regularly predicted a stronger economy than the one that materialized. In January 2011, Fed officials predicted that GDP would grow around 3.7 percent that year. It clocked in at 2 percent. In January 2012, they anticipated growth of about 2.5 percent. We ended up with 1.6 percent.

To give Ms. Mui’s competition its due, Dr. Richard Rahn at the Washington Times last April crisply noted:

The Federal Reserve had forecast the U.S. economy to grow about 4 percent near the beginning of each year for the last five years. But during each year, the Fed was forced to reduce its forecast until it got to the actual number of approximately 2 percent. (Other government agencies have been making equally bad forecasts.) These mammoth errors clearly show that the forecast models the official agencies use are mis-specified and contain incorrect assumptions.

What’s going on here?

A good bet would be that there’s a problem with the Fed’s reliance on an arcane art.  This art is designated “Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium” modeling.

Sound scientific? Well.

With admirable intellectual honesty an assistant vice president in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group, Marco Del Negro, Wharton Ph.D. student Raiden Hasegawa and University of Pennsylvania professor of economics Frank Schorfheide (speaking for themselves and not the Fed) open a two part analysis at the NY Fed’s own excellent Liberty Street Economics, Choosing the
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Exposed: The New American Way Of Life

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It’s enough to make you cry… or scream.

Source: The Lonely Libertarian





Witch Hunt Victim “Confesses”: Word Police in China vs. Word Police in US

Courtesy of Mish.

Witch Hunt Review

As I noted earlier today China Starts Witch Hunt for Those Obstructing Government Efforts to Prop Up Stocks.

Public Confession

It took less than a day for a victim of the witch hunt to be rounded up for public display. The Financial Times reports China Reporter Confesses to Stoking Market ‘Panic and Disorder’.

A leading journalist at one of China’s top financial publications has admitted to causing “panic and disorder” in the stock market, in a public confession carried on state television.

The detention of Wang Xiaolu, a reporter for Caijing magazine, comes amid a broad crackdown on the role of the media in the slump in China’s stock market, which is down about 40 per cent from its June 12 peak. Nearly 200 people have been punished for online rumour-mongering, state news agency Xinhua reported at the weekend.

“I shouldn’t have released a report with a major negative impact on the market at such a sensitive time. I shouldn’t do that just to catch attention which has caused the country and its investors such a big loss. I regret . . . [it and am] willing to confess my crime,” [said Xiaolu]

When the market turmoil began in June, Beijing imposed restrictions on media reporting of the stock market. The independent China Digital Times, which monitors internet censorship in the country, said in June media were told to avoid stoking panic.

Do not conduct in-depth analysis, and do not speculate on or assess the direction of the market,” it reported an official directive as saying. “Do not exaggerate panic or sadness. Do not use emotionally charged words such as ‘slump’, ‘spike’ or ‘collapse’.”

Word Police US Style

With thanks to reader Mark for the link,  Campus Reform reports that Professors Threaten Bad Grades for Saying Oppressive Words.

Multiple professors at Washington State University have explicitly told students their grades will suffer if they use terms such as “illegal alien,” “male,” and “female,” or if they fail to “defer” to non-white students.

According to the syllabus for Selena Lester Breikss’ “Women & Popular Culture” class, students risk a failing grade if they use any common descriptors that Breikss considers “oppressive and hateful language.”



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Modest Losses

Courtesy of Declan.

Bears took it upon themselves to press their advantage into the close of business. Selling volume was light and lacked the conviction that had accompanied the rout of the previous week.



The S&P is caught in a no-mans land, with a retest of 1,867 likely needed at some stage to rebuild confidence on bulls.





The Nasdaq has so far honored resistance at 4,825. Little else to say other than that.




The Nasdaq 100 did likewise, but hasn’t done enough to confirm bears are in control.




Small Caps closed with an inside day and a small doji. As with other indices it’s caught in a bit of a no-mans land, but it is enjoying a relative strength gain against Large Caps and Tech indices.




The Semiconductor Index continues to stage its V-Recovery, having experienced the worst of the selling in recent months.




For tomorrow, look for bears to turn the screw, although I suspect buyers will step up in numbers well before we get to last week’s spike lows.



You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.







Nicole Foss Talks Energy, Psychology, Collapse and The Future

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth.



Dorothea Lange Hoe culture in the South. Poor white, North Carolina July 1936

Nicole Foss recently participated in a live Google Hangouts (not Skype. I’m told) ‘forum’ discussion at the Doomstead Diner site that also included among others, Gail Tverberg, Steve Ludlum, Norman Pagett and Ugo Bardi. Apologies for the fact that I haven’t watched the videos yet and I’m getting the details as I go, so my info will be a bit sketchy.

I’ll run this in episodes. Today’s post contains episode 4. Previously, I posted episode 2 and 1,

Nicole Foss Talks Economics At The End Of The Age Of Oil

and

Nicole Foss Talks Energy Industry Issues and Oil Price Collapse.

Episode 3 has apparently not even been recorded yet, but we’ll post it as soon as it is available,

Part IV- Futurology

The Doomstead Diner site blurb:

Renewable Energy
One of the biggest hopes as the fossil fuels run thin or become too expensive to dig up is a switch to renewable forms of energy. How can such forms of energy be utilized, and how much of our current technological society can be maintained with the renewables?

Building Community
As the larger structures of society begin to break down, a more localized organizational structure will become necessary, both on the food production and distribution level as well as new political organizations. How can communities come together and create the kind of structures necessary for a low per capita energy society of the future?

Psychology of Collapse
Collapse is creating many psychological issues and problems as it progresses and accelerates. More people are under more stress all the time, losing jobs, losing their homes to foreclosure, becoming homeless, waiting on long bread lines for food aid etc. We read daily about increasing suicide rates and the number of mass shootings is also on the increase, recently there were 142 mass shootings catalogued in 142 days, 1 every day. How can we handle these psychological problems that are cropping up, and likely will worsen as the overall economy worsens?

Prognosticating the Future
The toughest part in all of these discussions is trying to figure out what is going to occur in the future,…
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Phil's Favorites

Greece Loses 17,000 Jobs in July, Most Since 2001

Courtesy of Mish.

It's no wonder Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras wanted elections now rather than later. He does not want the grim news of job losses and austerity to hit when he is more vulnerable.

Tsipras' problem may well be that he is too late.

Via translation from Libre Mercado, The Greek Economy Lost 17,000 Jobs in July, the Worst Result Since 2001.
Industrial production recorded a record drop in July, according to estimates by Markit.

...



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Zero Hedge

US & China Stocks Are Plunging After PMI Hits 6.5-Year Low, PBOC Strengthens Yuan Most Since Nov 2014

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Following China's official PMI print at a 3-year low, Caixin's PMI collapsed to 47.3 - the lowest sinec March 2009. Despite another CNY150bn liquidity injection (but the biggest strengthening of Yuan since Nov 2014 and a financial conditions tightening in FX trading), China, US, and Japanese stocks are plunging... SHCOMP -4%, Dow -280, NKY -340

Carnage!

China -4%

...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Summer's Over Get Smart on Cash Flow and Become a Very Serious Investor (Bloomberg)

In 1863, the Dowlais Iron Company had recovered from a business slump, but had no cash to invest for a new blast furnace, despite having mad...



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Chart School

Modest Losses

Courtesy of Declan.

Bears took it upon themselves to press their advantage into the close of business. Selling volume was light and lacked the conviction that had accompanied the rout of the previous week.

The S&P is caught in a no-mans land, with a retest of 1,867 likely needed at some stage to rebuild confidence on bulls.


The Nasdaq has so far honored resistance at 4,825. Little else to say other than that.


The Nasdaq 100 did likewise, but hasn't...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 31st, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Forget the S&P 500, keep your eyes on this leader!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We live in a highly correlated world when it comes to stock market trends!

Last week as the Dow was falling 1,000 points a week ago today, the Power of the Pattern reflected that many of the key markets around the world were hitting 4-year rising channel support at the same time.

I shared on 8/26, that the “Global bull market was still intact!” ( See Post Here)  

Did many of you tell your friend...



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Insider Scoop

Lowered Miner Estimates Lead To Southern Copper Downgrade

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related SCCO How To Play Copper Long Term Amid A Low Prices Environment HSBC Initiates Southern Copper At Buy
  • Southern Copper Corp (NYSE: SCCO) shares are down 8 percent in the last three months, even after picking up momentum last week and rising 6 percent.
  • JP Morgan’s Rodolfo Angele downgraded the rating on the company from Overweight to Neutral, while reducing the price targ...


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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Finally, market capitulation gives bulls a real test of conviction, plus perhaps a buying opportunity

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

The dark veil around China is creating a little too much uncertainty for investors, with the usual fear mongers piling on and sending the vast buy-the-dip crowd running for the sidelines until the smoke clears. Furthermore, Sabrient’s fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings have been flashing near-term defensive signals. The end result is a long overdue capitulation event that has left no market segment unscathed in its mass carnage. The historically long technical consolidation finally came to the point of having to break one way or the other, and it decided to break hard to the downside, actually testing the lows from last ...



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ValueWalk

Some Hedge Funds "Hedged" During Stock Market Sell Off, Others Not As Risk Focused

By Mark Melin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the VIX index jumping 120 percent on a weekly basis, the most in its history, and with the index measuring volatility or "fear" up near 47 percent on the day, one might think professional investors might be concerned. While the sell off did surprise some, certain hedge fund managers have started to dip their toes in the water to buy stocks they have on their accumulation list, while other algorithmic strategies are actually prospering in this volatile but generally consistently trending market.

Stock market sell off surprises some while others were prepared and are hedged prospering

While so...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Battered After "Governance Coup"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Naysyers are warning that the recent plunge in Bitcoin prices - from almost $318 at its peak during the Greek crisis, to $221 yesterday - is due to growing power struggle over the future of the cryptocurrency that is dividing its lead developers. On Saturday, a rival version of the current software was released by two bitcoin big guns. As Reuters reports, Bitcoin XT would increase the block size to 8 megabytes enabling more transactions to be processed every second. Those who oppose Bitcoin XT say the bigger block size jeopardizes the vision of a decentralized payments system that bitcoin is built on with some believing ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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