by Zero Hedge - August 25th, 2016 7:20 pm
Dear Louisiana, America is behind you 100%… except…
by Zero Hedge - August 25th, 2016 6:55 pm
It appears that the citizenry of Venezuela – shining example of socialist utopian endgames – are too busy slaughtering black stallions for food, lining up for toilet paper, and dying from lack of medicines to go out and buy cars (even at 0% rates for 10 years?)…
Venezuela sold 193 vehicles, including cars, trucks and buses, in the month of July… (not 193,000).
And don’t just blame oil…
According to Bloomberg, that is the lowest number since the data has been tracked going back to 1998, auto chamber Camara Automotriz de Venezuela, or Cavenez, reported Wednesday.
That’s about 0.6 cars per 100,000 people in Venezuela, compared to about 475 cars for the same number in the U.S.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Venezuela’s economy will shrink 10 percent in 2016, its third straight annual contraction, as the price of oil, which account for about 95 percent of foreign currency earnings, has declined more that 50 percent in two years.
Maybe everyone has a car? Or maybe Maduro has promised that state-provided autonomous vehicles will take care of all transportation needs?
by Zero Hedge - August 25th, 2016 6:30 pm
The recent DC Leaks, of over 2,500 documents from George Soros NGOs, has shed a bright light on how the billionaire uses his vast wealth to create global chaos in an never ending push to deliver his neo-liberal euphoria to the peasant classes.
While Soros has managed to thoroughly destabilise the European Union by promoting mass immigration and open borders, divided the United States by actively funding Black Lives Matters and corrupting the very corruptible US political class, and destroyed Ukraine by pushing for an illegal coup of a democratically elected government using neo-nazi strong men…one country that Soros has not bee able to crack has been The Russian Federation.
Russia’s political pragmatism and humanist value system rooted in a traditional, “nation-state” culture most likely infuriates Soros.
Russia is Soros’ white whale… a creature he has been trying to capture and kill-off for nearly a decade.
Unfortunately for Soros (and fortunately for the entire planet) the Russian government realised the cancerous nature of Soros backed NGOs, and took the proper preventative measures…which in hindsight, and after reviewing the DC Leaks memos, proved to be a very wise move.
On November 30th 2015, ZeroHedge reported,
Russian Prosecutor General’s Office issued a statement in which it recognized George Soros’s Open Society Institute and another affiliated organization as “undesirable groups”, banning Russian citizens and organizations from participation in any of their projects.
–prosecutors said the activities of the Open Society Institute and the Open Society Institute Assistance Foundation were a threat to the foundations of Russia’s Constitutional order and national security. They added that the Justice Ministry would be duly informed about these conclusions and would add the two groups to Russia’s list of undesirable foreign organizations.
According to RT, prosecutors launched a probe into the activities of the two organizations – both sponsored by the well-known US financier George Soros – in July this year, after Russian senators approved the so-called “patriotic stop-list” of 12 groups that required immediate attention over their supposed anti-Russian activities.
The Law on Undesirable Foreign Organizations came into force in early June this year. It requires the Prosecutor General’s Office and the Foreign Ministry to draw up an official list of undesirable foreign organizations and
“The End Will Be Very Painful” Massive European Pension Fund “Single Biggest Concern” Is “Central Bank Pumping”
by Zero Hedge - August 25th, 2016 6:05 pm
“All our risk analysts are trying to peel the onion to understand if this is all correlated or if there’s something we can find that isn’t correlated,” Carsten Stendevad, the chief executive officer of ATP, said in an interview in Copenhagen. “The truth is, yes, we can find pockets of things that are slightly less correlated. But the question is when this kind of moving-in-tandem will be very painful, when things move in the other direction.”
Well done Central Banks…
As Bloomberg reports, Denmark’s biggest pension fund, which manages about $115 billion in assets, says it’s growing increasingly worried about how markets will react when crisis-era correlations across asset classes start to reverse.
Signs of price distortions are everywhere, with the economic text books offering little help in understanding how today’s central bank policies will shape the future.
“It’s better to make money off fundamentals rather than from central bank policies,” Stendevad said. “The central bank activity that has pushed great returns for so long really is worrying. It is our single biggest concern.”
The fund has adjusted its investment approach in order to better reflect the underlying risk. In its return-seeking portfolio, ATP has changed the way risk is measured. Rather than allocating each investment into one of five risk classes, it now decomposes each investment into four risk factors: inflation, interest rates, equities and a bucket labeled “other.”
“Looking at the past couple of years, most asset classes have moved in tandem and the first six months of this year were no different,” Stendevad said. “On the way up, such tandem moves are nice but they make us very uncomfortable about the future where the trend could reverse.”
“It’s a fairly surreal experience to be a pension fund CEO with liabilities 100 years out that we have to discount at 40 basis points. It’s hedged, so it’s all good. But what we’re spending a lot of time on is what kind of world we’ll see in 10-15 years.”
Like all investors, ATP is girding for the day when central banks finally start to emerge from their crisis policies. “None of us knows how it will unfold,” Stendevad said. “Nobody’s tried it before.”
by ilene - August 25th, 2016 5:56 pm
Watch a replay of Phil's weekly trading webinar, recorded yesterday, below.
For LIVE access, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here!
00:03:03 TSLA's Planned Roadmap to Vehicles
00:04:54 More on Extrapolation
00:06:19 TSLA Chart
00:08:42 Auto Sales by Quarter
00:10:00 Annual Vehicle Sales
00:13:52 Ford Sales Performance
00:15:53 Possible Problems with the Auto Business
00:16:40 Chinese Auto Sales
00:18:30 Ford Trade Status
00:19:21 Long-Term Ford Portfolio
00:22:27 Ford Trade Ideas
00:29:12 Velocity of Money
00:44:47 Owning a House vs. Renting
00:50:21 Home Sales
00:51:20 XON Chart
00:52:04 XON relation to Zika
00:53:42 APPL Car Environments
00:55:17 Self-driving Cars
00:57:56 Interest Rates
00:59:27 Selling Bonds in the Market
01:02:07 Self-driving car infrastructure ideas
01:08:04 Fair Market Price
01:09:00 DIS Chart
01:10:05 DIS Earnings
01:12:15 XON expires on Oct.
01:14:06 LOW Trade Ideas
01:20:58 DAL Trade Ideas
01:22:00 More Trade Ideas
01:25:00 BBY Trade Ideas
01:27:49 Petroleum Status Report
01:35:00 JNJ Earnings
01:39:00 Long Term Portfolio
01:45:00 Checking the Markets
01:47:46 Short-Term Portfolio
01:48:37 5% Portfolio
01:49:07 Butterfly Portfolio
01:52:40 More Trade Ideas
Phil's Weekly Trading Webinars provide a great opportunity to learn what we do at PSW. You can subscribe to our YouTube channel and view past webinars, here. For LIVE access to PSW's Weekly Webinars – demonstrating trading strategies in real time – join us at PSW — click here!
by Zero Hedge - August 25th, 2016 5:40 pm
Economist John Taylor is on his way to join the world’s central bankers at Jackson Hole for the 35th annual monetary-policy conference in the Grand Teton Mountains. As he explains (via EconomicsOne.com)…
I attended the first monetary-policy conference there in 1982, and I may be the only person to attend both the 1st and the 35th.
I know the Tetons will still be there, but virtually everything else will be different. As the Wall Street Journal front page headline screamed out on Monday, central bank Stimulus Efforts Get Weirder. I’m looking forward to it.
Paul Volcker chaired the Fed in 1982. He went to Jackson Hole, but he was not on the program to give the opening address, and no one was speculating on what he might say. No other Fed governors were there, nor governors of any other central bank. In contrast, this year many central bankers will be there, including from emerging markets. Only four reporters came in 1982 — William Eaton (LA Times), Jonathan Fuerbringer (New York Times), Ken Bacon (Wall Street Journal) and John Berry (Washington Post). This year there will be scores. And there were no television people to interview central bankers in 1982 (with the awesome Grand Teton as backdrop).
It was clear to everyone in 1982 that Volcker had a policy strategy in place, so he didn’t need to use Jackson Hole to announce new interventions or tools. The strategy was to focus on price stability and thereby get inflation down, which would then restore economic growth and reduce unemployment. Some at the meeting, such as Nobel Laureate James Tobin, didn’t like Volcker’s strategy, but others did. I presented a paper at the 1982 conference which supported the strategy.
The federal funds rate was over 10.1% in August 1982 down from 19.1% the previous summer. Today the policy rate is .5% in the U.S. and negative in the Eurozone, Japan, Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark. There will be lot of discussion about the impact of these unusual central bank policy rates, as well the unusual large scale purchases of corporate bonds and stock, and of course the possibility of helicopter money and other new tools, some of which greatly expand the scope of central banks.
I hope there is also a discussion of less weird policy, and in particular about the normalization
by Zero Hedge - August 25th, 2016 5:15 pm
South Carolina Representative Trey Gowdy appeared on Fox News today and disclosed new details about the Clinton email scandal that seem to indicate intent to destroy evidence. Per the clip below, Gowdy reveals that Clinton used “BleachBit” to erase the “personal” emails from her private server.
For those not familiar with the software, BleachBit is intended to help users delete files in a way to “prevent recovery” and “hide traces of files deleted.” Per the BleachBit website:
Beyond simply deleting files, BleachBit includes advanced features such as shredding files to prevent recovery, wiping free disk space to hide traces of files deleted by other applications, and vacuuming Firefox to make it faster.
During his appearance on Fox, Gowdy clearly indicates that Clinton’s use of BleachBit undermines her claims that she only deleted innocuous “personal” emails from her private server.
“If she considered them to be personal, then she and her lawyers had those emails deleted. They didn’t just push the delete button, they had them deleted where even God can’t read them.
“They were using something called BleachBit. You don’t use BleachBit for yoga emails.”
“When you’re using BleachBit, it is something you really do not want the world to see.”
Gowdy also questioned whether Hillary considered “Clinton Foundation” emails to be “personal” and, if not, asked why the FBI’s investigation revealed minimal emails about Foundation-related topics.
So Dear Reader, we leave it to you to decide whether – like FBI Director Comey – you see no “intent” to hide or obfuscate any of the deleted emails; or – like Rep. Gowdy – you see the facts as proving Hillary Clinton’s intent to ensure no trace was left of these harmless emails about yoga routines or wedding plans.
by Chart School - August 25th, 2016 4:54 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.
Equity markets around the globe posted losses today, rather minor ones in the US. Our benchmark S&P 500 spent the day in a narrow range between its 0.16% late morning high to its -0.26% intraday low at the beginning of the final hour of trading. It trimmed about half the loss to close at -0.14% for the day. Today’s trading range was at the 9th percentile of the 164 market day so far in 2016. Volume was on the light side in advance of the final day of the Jackson Hole event, with Fed Chair Yellen in the spotlight tomorrow morning.
The yield on the 10-year note closed at at 1.58%, up two basis points from the previous close.
Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.
Here is daily chart of index. We see the narrow trading range in the seconh half of July followed by another narrow range, slightly higher, after the first week of August. Will Jackson Hole Friday send the index in a distinct direction? Stay tuned!
A Perspective on Drawdowns
Here’s a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough.
Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted.
Here is a linear scale version of the same chart with the 50- and 200-day moving averages.
A Perspective on Volatility
For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. We’ve also included a 20-day moving average to help identify trends in volatility.
by Zero Hedge - August 25th, 2016 4:50 pm
With all eyes focused on the collapse in equity risk over the last few months, it seems Treasuries have been ignored. This week has seen intraday trading ranges for 10Y Treasury yields crash to 2016 lows. The last time the volatility was this compressed was early June, which pre-empted a major surge in risk, slide in stocks, and drop in rates…
As Bloomberg details, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note traded Wednesday in a yield range of less than 0.03 percentage point, the tightest since June. It’s the second-smallest range of 2016, excluding days the market was closed for American holidays, as bond traders await Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole on Aug. 26.
They’ll be listening for clues as to whether policy makers will raise interest rates later this year… even though the yield curve seems convinced it’s not going to happen…
Notably, both Bond and Equity risk is massively distorted from a seasonal norm perspective…
However, the last time bond trading was this compressed marked a notable bottom in risk…
And while the unusual situation where equity ‘risk’ is less than bond ‘risk’ remains, it is clear that equities are catching up… as spot VIX catches up to the futures curve’s expectations.
Finally, some context!
by Zero Hedge - August 25th, 2016 4:25 pm
When it came to BREXIT, the computer correctly forecast that the leave side would win and there would be a big turnout.
I personally stated that I “believed” they would rig the election as they had done with every other European election from Austria and Scotland all the way to Italy and Spain.
I also stated that the only way for BREXIT to win would be an overwhelming majority, which did happen.
Personally, I was wrong for I questioned whether they would really be able to win. This is what I mean that my “opinion” is not infallible. It’s just an opinion.
Looking at the Electoral College, yes it appears to be a close race again.
The population voting models only give Hillary a 25% chance of winning.
But the press is in all out war against Trump and the American people creating propaganda like we have never seen in American history…
Once again, I will say this. UNLESS there is a huge turnout, they will UNDOUBTEDLY rig the game for Hillary. You have the Republican Elite who behind the curtain are pushing for Hillary.
So I would also have to assume they will rig the election every which way possible.
There is far too much at stake to allow an OUTSIDER to go to Washington.
They stole state from Bernie to make sure Hillary won. Without that, Bernie would have been the candidate.
If the history of the Roman Empire has any guidance, Hillary will take the throne and her corruption is all that is needed to end Western Civilization much like Maximinus.
This was the crooked emperor who declared all wealth belonged to the state. He paid spies to report people with wealth who were hiding anything. That was the tipping point and Hillary has always preached socialism.
What happened was unbelievable. When you attack the people in such a manner as will Hillary, they will contract, hoard, and not invest. Obama has the worse economic growth of any president since the Great Depression. Hillary will beat that.
So I believe they will rig the game. The cannot afford a Trump victory.