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The American Dream Has Moved to Scandinavia

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

We noted in 2010 that the American Dream – the possibility of a “rags to riches” success story – has moved abroad … since social mobility in the U.S. is much lower than in many other developed nations.

(And we pointed out that conservatives are as disturbed as liberals by the collapse of social mobility in modern America.)

A paper published last year by University of Ottawa economics professor Miles Corak tells us exactly where the American Dream has gone … to Scandinavia.  Here’s a chart from the study:

Denmark, Norway and Finland have the most social mobility (and Sweden is not that far behind).

On the other hand, the UK, Italy and America have the least social mobility.

True, the UK and Italy are a tiny bit worse than the U.S. in terms of social mobility.  But the U.S. has the most inequality.  Indeed, the U.S. arguably has the worst inequality anywhere in the world at any time in history. Indeed, inequality is so severe in America that most of the profits are flowing into the hands of an incredibly small group of people … and you’re not very likely to become one of them.

On the other hand, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Norway have the least inequality. In other words, it’s a lot more likely that you can get a reasonable slice of the pie there.

Indeed, Norway is arguably the world’s most prosperous country. Denmark is 3rd; Sweden is 6th; and Finland is 8th … but the U.S. has dropped down to 10th place.

Sadly, the American Dream is now spoken with a Scandinavian accent.





Stocks Close At Recordest Highs Ensuring ‘Confident’ Black Friday, Despite Macro Massacre

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The S&P 500 closed at new record-er-est highs (a record 29th day above the 5DMA) providing just the right amount of confidence-inspiring 'wealth creation' to ensure you spend, spend, spend this weekend all those gas price savings (despite 9 of 9 macro data misses today). Dow and Trannies underperformed today as Nasdaq surged on AAPL strength. The USDollar fell for the 3rd day (first time in a month) and Treasury yields tumbled (down 5-8bps on the week) near 18 month closing lows. VIX traded briefly with an 11 handle and lost its inversion (1st day in 6). Gold prices flatlined for the 3rd day (as EURCHF fell) ahead of the Swiss gold referendum this weekend. Oil tumbled to fresh 4-year lows as OPEC hinted at no cuts and copper slipped to fresh 4 year closing lows. Late-day shenanigans sent stocks ripping higher… in a totally rational manner. Turkey prices are at $1.67/lb and have been remarkably stable over the past few years.

This happened…

  • Mortgage Applications -4.3%
  • Durable Goods Ex-Transports MISS -0.9% vs +0.5% Exp
  • Initial Jobless Claims MISS 313k vs 288k Exp
  • Personal Income MISS +0.2% vs +0.4% Exp
  • Personal Spending MISS +0.2% vs +0.3% Exp
  • Chicago PMI MISS 60.8 vs 63.0 Exp
  • UMich Confidence MISS 88.8 vs 90.0 Exp
  • Pending Home Sale MISS -1.1% vs +0.5% Exp
  • New Home Sales MISS +0.7% vs +0.8% Exp

Which explains this..Another Death Cross… right?

 

What's funny is how fucking predictable it has all become…

Rather oddly, S&P 500 e-mini liquidty was at its highest point since the Treasury yield flash crash with an hour to go… (h/t @NanexLLC)

 

Recorder-est 29th day in a row closing above its 5-day moving-average

 

On the day, Nasdaq won thanks to AAPL…

 

Thanks to a 3Sigma above VWAP ramp

Thanks to the ubiquitous VIX slam at 330ET

 

As AAPL passed $700 billion…
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19 US Shale Areas That Are Suddenly Endangered, “The Shale Revolution Doesn’t Work At $80″

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Despite the constant blather that lower oil prices are “unequivocally good” for America, we suspect companies working and people living these 19 Shale regions will have a different perspective…

 

Drilling for oil in 19 shale regions loses money at $75 a barrel, according to calculations by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Those areas pumped about 413,000 barrels a day, according to the latest data available from Drillinginfo Inc. and company presentations.

 

“Everybody is trying to put a very happy spin on their ability to weather $80 oil, but a lot of that is just smoke,” said Daniel Dicker, president of MercBloc Wealth Management Solutions with 25 years’ experience trading crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange. “The shale revolution doesn’t work at $80, period.”

Source: Bloomberg





The ‘Modest’ Economic Implications Of Obama’s Immigration Policy Changes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The executive actions on immigration announced last week look likely to have only a modest economic effect, because, as Goldman Sachs explains, most of the individuals eligible for the programs are already in the US and, in most cases, are likely already working. That said, Goldman estimates that the changes should increase the labor force by about 300k over the next couple of years and that possible wage gains among those gaining work authorization would increase average wages by less than 0.1%.

 

Via Goldman Sachs,

On November 20, President Obama outlined a series of executive actions related to immigration reform. In what follows, we address some of the main questions we have received from clients since the announcement:

Q: What was announced?

The President announced a number of steps through administrative actions to be implemented by the Departments of Homeland Security and State. None of the changes rely on congressional approval. The program has four major components:

  • Enforcement prioritization: The Administration will prioritize border enforcement and focus interior enforcement mainly on individuals who pose security risks; the implication is that the flow of new unauthorized border-crossers could decrease, while enforcement for most unauthorized immigrants already in the US would be diminished.
  • Incremental expansion of work visa programs: The program would incrementally expand immigration of skilled workers, by (1) allowing spouses of H1-B visa (high-skilled) workers to work if they have a green card application pending; (2) allowing high-skilled workers to change jobs more easily; (3) "modernizing" the requirements for L-1 visas, which allows companies to transfer existing employees to US offices (this is an important program for parts of the technology industry); (4) granting green cards or temporary status to individuals with "exceptional ability" or inventors, researchers, and founders of start-up enterprises, and (5) expanding the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program, which allows students graduating from US universities to work for up to 29 months in the US following graduation.
  • Expansion of existing deferred action program: The President's executive order would expand the existing Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. The program was established in 2012 to allow unauthorized immigrants born after 1981 who arrived in the US prior to age 16 to avoid removal and to gain work authorization. To qualify, individuals must also be at least 15 years old at


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“It’s Different This Time?” What Happened To US Oil Drillers During The Last Price War

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

History may not repeat but it rhymes so loud sometimes that Einstein would be rolling in his repetitively insane grave. As Bloomberg notes, the last time that U.S. oil drillers got caught up in a price war orchestrated by Saudi Arabia, it ended badly for the Americans. “1986 was the big price collapse and the industry did not see it coming,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research who has covered the oil sector for 37 years, “it put a lot of them out of business. You just don’t forget it. It’s part of the cultural memory.” Think it can’t happen again? Think again… consider how levered US Shale drillers are and just what Saudi has to gain from keeping their foot on the US neck… In 1986, the U.S. industry collapsed, triggering almost a quarter-century of production declines, and the Saudis regained their leading role in the world’s oil market.

 

As Bloomberg reports,

In 1986, the Saudis opened the spigot and sparked a four-month, 67 percent plunge that left oil just above $10 a barrel. The U.S. industry collapsed, triggering almost a quarter-century of production declines, and the Saudis regained their leading role in the world’s oil market.

 

So while no one expects the Saudis to ramp up output now like they did then and U.S. shale oil companies are pledging to keep drilling regardless, the memory of that bust looms large for American industry executives on the eve of OPEC’s meeting tomorrow. As the Saudis gather with officials from the 11 other OPEC nations in Vienna, analysts are split on whether the group will cut output to lift prices or leave production unchanged to fight for market share with shale drillers.

 

“1986 was the big price collapse and the industry did not see it coming,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research in Wakefield, Massachusetts, who has covered the oil sector for 37 years. “It put a lot of them out of business. You just don’t forget it. It’s part of the cultural memory.”

 

 

“Someone has to blink,” said Sarah Emerson, managing principal of ESAI Energy Inc., a consulting company in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “OPEC is saying ‘Does it really have to be us?’”


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Spot The Turkey – Live Feed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Some folks are not going to be beheaded today…

 

 

President Obama is due to pardon the turkeys at 215pmET…

 

Also ironic on the day when Turkey’s leader slams US “rudeness”…

Erdogan accused the US of being “rude” for pressuring it to help save the ISIL-besieged Syrian town of Kobane, which is within sight of the Turkish border.

 

“Why is somebody coming to this region from 12,000km away?” Erdogan said during an address to a group of businessmen in Ankara, in a clear reference to the US.

 

“I want you to know that we are against impertinence, recklessness and endless demands,” he said.

*  *  *





3 Things Worth Thinking About

Courtesy of Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management

Data And Surveys Continue To Part Company

Last Friday, I discussed the growing gap between economic reports particularly when they measure the same basic areas of the overall economy. For example, how can the Markit Manufacturing PMI Index be negative for three months while the ISM PMI has surged higher during the same period. Both cannot be right.

Well, the same thing happened yesterday with the release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) which is arguably one of the most important economic indicators available. While the recent release of the Philidelphia Fed manufacturing survey surged to its highest level in years, the CFNAI fell to .14 from .29 last month.

(Note: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index comprised of 85 subcomponents that provide a broad measure of economic activity nationwide.)

More importantly, while the Federal Reserve and ISM surveys have been showing strong increases in recent months; the production, income and consumption and housing components of the CFNAI have declined.  The chart below shows the CFNAI index broken down into the 3-month average of supply (production, income, employment) and demand (consumption, housing, sales).

CFNAI-Supply-Demand-112514

There are TWO very important things to take away from the chart above. First, supply and demand have had an extremely tight correlation prior to the financial crisis. However, since the last recession demand has underperformed supply to a significant extent which confirms the weak economic underpinnings for the majority of the country. 

Secondly, while government related survey's are showing a vast improvement in economic activity, there has been little marginal improvement in the CFNAI. In fact, as shown in the chart below, the 3-month average has turned significantly lower in the second and third quarters of this year which suggests that real economic activity is slowing.

CFNAI-3month-Growth-112514

With the economic recovery now more than six years into recovery it has become a "footrace" to the finish line. With asset prices at elevated levels in anticipation of an economic revival, the failure of such a resurgence could lead to a significant disappointment for investors. With extremely cold weather threatening a large chunk of the population,…
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Google vs. Sun vs. France: Too Big, Too Powerful, Too Free

Courtesy of Mish.

I happen to like the sun. By definition, the earth would not even be a planet without the sun. No one on earth would be alive without free sunshine.

I happen to like Google. I could survive without Google, but like the sun, much of what Google provides is free.

Free Google Things

  • Free internet services including the best search engine in the world
  • Free Gmail
  • Free research on self-driving cars
  • Free research on other robotics
  • Free blog software
  • Free hosting and storage for blogs
  • Free ads on my blog (and those ads make me money)

For a discussion of the implications of a self-driving car, please see Google Unveils Self-Driving Car, No Steering Wheel, No Accelerator, No Brake Pedal; Self-Driving Taxi Has Arrived. Who, other than city bureaucrats with their taxi licensing scheme will not want lower taxi fares?

For a discussion of other Google robotic research, please see More Robots: Google’s “Atlas” Robot Mimics “Karate Kid”; Flying Defibrillator “Ambulance Drone” Unveiled; Fed Has No Answer.

Green Energy Handouts vs. Google

Unlike “green energy” parasites that could not exist without government subsidies (taxpayer dollars), Google, like the sun does what it does for free. Google does not ask for money from the government to promote autonomous cars, robots, or anything else.

Instead, Google research has created thousands of very high-paying jobs. Those job-holders pay taxes.

What’s not to like?

Enter the French

France does not like Google. Yesterday, Yahoo! reported on France’s Desperate Battle to Erase Google, Netflix and Uber from Existence. …



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“This Is Madness”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Despite near-record Treasury short speculative-positioning, 30Y Treasury yields just hit a 2.93% handle – in line with the yield at the Bullard lows in mid-October. The S&P 500 is 200 points higher… Discuss…

 

The S&P 500 is now trading 200 points rich to Treasury markets (or 30Y Treasury yields should be 55bps higher – despite world GDP expectations plunging as fast as oil prices)

 

As the S&P 500 has now closed above it 5-day moving-average for 28 days (today will be 29)…

 

This has never – ever – happened before in US equity markets.

 

Charts: Bloomberg





Misery Mounts As Airline Delays & Cancellations Surge On East Coast

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As of 1220ET, 505 flights have been cancelled in the US today (and 1,731 additional flights are subject to delays) as airlines both pre-emptively and reactively prepare for the worst case nor’easter due to hit the East Coast any hour now. Chicago O’Hare is subject to the most flight delays, followed by New York’s JFK. Newark, Laguardia, and Philadeplhia airports are seeing the most cancellations currently.

 

click image for live FlightAware map of all delays/cancellations in the US…

 

The worst hit airports are…

click image for live FlightAware map of all delays/cancellations in the US…

 

And it looks set to get worse, much worse… (as accuweather reports)

A storm with rain, heavy snow, low clouds and poor visibility will cause major disruptions and delays for Thanksgiving travel on the East Coast and in the Appalachians into Wednesday night.

 

 

Enough rain, low clouds and fog will occur to lead to airline and highway delays ahead of the snow.

 

In anticipation of delays or cancellations, several airlines, including US Airways, American and Delta, have announced they will waive change fees for passengers scheduled to fly into airports in the line of the storm.

 

According to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, “In most cases, the worst time to travel in the mid-Atlantic and New England due to the storm will be on Wednesday and Wednesday night.”

 

Rain will initially spread northward along the Interstate-95 with snow and rain to start farther west in the I-81 corridor. However, a change to snow will take place from west to east from northern Virginia to New England.

 

The storm will bring mostly snow to the I-81 swath in Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania, I-84 in southeastern New York state, as well as much of interior New England, where a general 6-12 inches of snow are forecast.

 

“The storm should rapidly strengthen off the coast of New England on Wednesday night, leading to strong and gusty winds, especially near the coast,” stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Ben Noll as he discussed the impacts in this storm scenario.

 

Problems due to blowing and drifting snow will be the greatest in northern and western New England. Farther south, winds will not be strong enough


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Zero Hedge

Stimulate This! Thoughts On Intergenerational Fairness

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Erico Matia Tavares via Sinclair & Co.,

Since this is the season for giving thanks in the US, we might give some consideration to the unsung heroes who have been underwriting a big chunk of our economic recovery of late. Actually, we literally owe our future to them - in more ways than one.

We recently asked a bright young economics student from a prominent European university about the right role of government in an economy. And the answer, somewhat predictable: "well, to stimulate it!" When we then asked how the governmen...



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Phil's Favorites

The Brutal Monotony of All Time Highs

The Brutal Monotony of All Time Highs

Courtesy of 

There’s only one subtle joke in the film Anchorman and it involves the fact that the San Diego news team’s weather man has a sub-100 IQ. In a city where “72 and sunny” is the forecast 365 days a year, even Brick Tamland has no problem reliably delivering this news to the viewers.

In the chart below, via my firm‘s Research Director Michael Batnick, you’ll see the S&P 500 ETF overlaying a chart indicating new all time high closes (in red). The monoton...



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Chart School

Michigan Consumer Sentiment for November Slightly Trims Its Strong Preliminary Reading

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for November came in at 88.8, a bit off the 89.4 preliminary reading but up from from the October Final of 86.9. As finaly readings go, this is a post-recession high and the highest level since July 2007, over seven years ago. Today's number came in below the Investing.com forecast of 90.2.

See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. I've highlighted recessions and included real GDP to help evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy.


...



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Insider Scoop

Morgan Stanley: Nimble Storage Increased Its Market Four-Fold

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Nimble Storage Inc (NYSE: NMBL) reported its third quarter results on Tuesday after market close. The company reported a loss of $0.15 per share, slightly better than the $0.16 per share loss analysts were expecting, while revenue of $59.10 million was higher than the $57.75 million analysts were expecting.

In a note to clients on Wednesday, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley noted that the company “continues to disrupt the storage market” as new customer adoption doubled year-over-year, increasing its installed base to more than 4,300 customers.

The analyst also notes that international investments are “beginning to pay off” as revenue grew 135 percent from a year ago, contributing 20 percent of total revenue in the quarter.

However, Huberty singles out the addition of the Fibre Channel (FC) protocol. The analyst states that the company has now ex...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Holiday fever takes hold of stock investors, but a pullback is needed

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

With warmer weather arriving to melt the early snowfall across much of the country, investors seem to be catching a severe case of holiday fever and positioning themselves for the seasonally bullish time of the year. And to give an added boost, both Europe and Asia provided more fuel for the bull’s fire last week with stimulus announcements, particularly China’s interest rate cut. Yes, all systems are go for U.S. equities as there really is no other game in town. But nothing goes up in a straight line, not even during the holidays, so a near-term market pullback would be a healthy way to prevent a steeper correction in January.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based Sector...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Mining

Bitcoin Mining

Courtesy of Global Economic Intersection

By Rod Garratt and Rosa Hayes - Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

In June 2014, the mining pool Ghash.IO briefly controlled more than half of all mining power in the Bitcoin network, awakening fears that it might attempt to manipulate the blockchain, the public record of all Bitcoin transactions. Alarming headlines splattered the blogosphere. But should members of the Bitcoin community be worried?

Miners are members of the Bitcoin community who engage in a proce...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of November 25th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the Happy Thanksgiving Edition of Stock World Weekly!

Click on this link and sign in with your PSW user name and password. 

Picture via Pixabay.

...

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Market Shadows

Official Moves in the Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio

By Ilene 

I officially bought 250 shares of EZCH at $18.76 and sold 300 shares of IGT at $17.09 in Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio yesterday (Fri. 11-21).

Click here for Thursday's post where I was thinking about buying EZCH. After further reading, I decided to add it to the virtual portfolio and to sell IGT and several other stocks, which we'll be saying goodbye to next week.

Notes

1. th...



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Option Review

Yamana Gold call options sink

Yamana Gold call options sink

By Andrew Wilkinson at Interactive Brokers

A four-year low for the spot price of gold has had a devastating impact on Yamana Gold (Ticker: AUY), with shares in the name down at the lowest price in six years. Some option traders were especially keen to sell premium and appear to see few signs of a lasting rebound within the next five months. The price of gold suffered again Wednesday as the dollar strengthened and stock prices advanced. The post price of gold fell to $1145 adding further pain to share prices of gold miners. Shares in Yamana Gold tumbled to $3.62 and the lowest price since 2008 as call option sellers used the April expiration contract to write premium at the $5.00 strike. That strike is now 38% above the price of the stock. Premium writers took in around 16-cents per contract o...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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