Archive for the ‘Immediately available to public’ Category

Saudi Oil Minister Puts On Brave Face Amid Severe Headwinds: “Eventually, Economic Producers Will Prevail”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As the EM world looks on helplessly while Saudi Arabia’s war with the US shale complex (and, by extension, with the Fed) serves to keep crude prices depressed putting enormous pressure on commodity currencies and accelerating emerging market outflows, the question is whether Riyadh’s SAMA piggy bank can outlast the various capital market lifelines available to America’s largely uneconomic shale drillers. 

It’s tempting to simply say “yes.” That is, with the next round of revolver raids due in days and with HY spreads blowing out amid jittery US markets, it seems unlikely that maligned US producers will be able to survive for much longer, and despite the fact that data out yesterday shows Riyadh’s FX reserves falling to a 32-month low, the Saudi war chest still amounts to nearly $700 billion,  giving the kingdom plenty of ammo. However, between maintaining subsidies, defending the riyal peg, and fighting two proxy wars, Saudi Arabia’s fiscal situation has deteriorated rapidly, forcing Riyadh to tap the bond market in an effort to help plug a hole that amounts to some 20% of GDP. 

Given the above, some have dared to suggest that in fact, the Saudis could lose this “war” just as they may be set to lose their status as regional power broker to Tehran thanks to Iran’s partnership with Moscow in the ongoing effort to shore up Assad in Syria and wrest control of Baghdad from the US.

But don’t tell that to Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi who says that despite all the uncertainty, the economics of oil exploration and production will prevail at the end of the day. Here’s Reuters, citing Economic Times:

Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi believes economic producers will prevail over higher-cost suppliers and OPEC’s share of the market will rise, India’s Economic Times newspaper reported on its website on Monday.

In comments suggesting Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, is sticking to its policy of defending market share rather than supporting prices, Naimi told the paper the drop in oil prices was less of a problem than fluctuations.

“The world needs a reliable, sustainable supply. Best way to do it is to make sure that demand and supply should be equal, so there will not be fluctuation of price. The biggest problem for everybody, producer and consumer today,

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How America’s “Think Tanks” Are Compromised & Bought Off By Foreign Governments

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

The think tanks do not disclose the terms of the agreements they have reached with foreign governments. And they have not registered with the United States government as representatives of the donor countries, an omission that appears, in some cases, to be a violation of federal law, according to several legal specialists who examined the agreements at the request of The Times.


As a result, policy makers who rely on think tanks are often unaware of the role of foreign governments in funding the research.


Several legal experts who reviewed the documents, however, said the tightening relationships between United States think tanks and their overseas sponsors could violate the Foreign Agents Registration Act, the 1938 federal law that sought to combat a Nazi propaganda campaign in the United States. The law requires groups that are paid by foreign governments with the intention of influencing public policy to register as “foreign agents” with the Justice Department.


At least one of the research groups conceded that it may in fact be violating the federal law.

– From the New York Times article: Foreign Powers Buy Influence at Think Tanks

Liberty Blitzkrieg readers will be under no illusions when it comes to the role “Think Tanks” play within America’s crony, unethical, slimy and entirely compromised political system. Nevertheless, the recent New York Times article exposing how foreign governments, likely illegally, use them to buy influence in Washington D.C., is extremely important and disturbing. Let’s examine a few excerpts.

From the New York Times:

WASHINGTON — The agreement signed last year by the Norway Ministry of Foreign Affairs was explicit: For $5 million, Norway’s partner in Washington would push top officials at the White House, at the Treasury Department and in Congress to double spending on a United States foreign aid program.


But the recipient of the cash was not one of the many Beltway lobbying firms that work every year on behalf of foreign governments.


It was the Center for Global Development, a nonprofit research organization, or think tank, one of many such groups in Washington that lawmakers, government officials and the

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An Up Close And Personal Look At The Russian Firepower Deployed In Syria

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As Moscow’s air campaign in Syria enters its sixth day, both the West and The Kremlin have put their respective media propaganda machines into overdrive. 

In many respects, the geopolitical stakes for both sides are the highest they’ve been in decades. The West cannot afford to stand by and watch Russia do in a matter of weeks what the US has failed to accomplish in 13 months. Put simply: if Moscow declares victory over ISIS within the next month or two (and that appears as likely as not), Washington will be left to explain to a bewildered public what just happened. To the uninitiated, it will appear as though Russia’s military is far superior to the US Army when it comes to fighting terror and on top of that, Iran’s now well publicized role will not only cast further doubt on the nuclear deal, but will also raise questions about the contention that Tehran is committed to financing and exporting terror. 

For Russia, the powerplay in Syria represents nothing short of a return to the world stage after decades of flying below the radar as a second rate superpower. Putin has now proven that Moscow can project its influence with virtual impunity and as Monday’s “accidental” violation of Turkish airspace suggests, The Kremlin is getting more brave by the day in the face of what certainly looks like a de facto surrender by the West. 

All of the above presents a real challenge when it comes to analyzing the conflict. That is, with both sides in full-on spin mode, getting at the truth is even more difficult than it would normally be in an East vs. West standoff and while US foreign policy is something of an easy target when it comes to pointing out hypocrisy and outright incompetence, one also has to be careful to avoid taking the Russian line at face value because after all, this is all just a contest to control the narrative and thus to help determine how history will remember the Syrian civil war. 

With all of that said, watching Russia effectively humiliate the West by bragging day in and day out is nothing if it’s not amusing, and indeed, as we said on Sunday, the leaked diplomatic cable from 2006 which outlines Washington’s intent to effectively start a…
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Oct 6 – Fed’s Rosengren: Door Still Open For 2015 Fed Rate Hike

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Pivotfarm.






Put and Call Options: EXTREME FEAR During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 25.65% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. However, this is still among the highest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating fear on the part of investors.

Market Volatility:  NEUTRAL The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at 19.54. This is a neutral reading and indicates that market risks appear low.

Stock Price Strength: FEAR The number of stocks hitting 52-week lows exceeds the number hitting highs and is at the lower end of its range, indicating fear.




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Syria Ground War Imminent? U.S. Accuses Russia Of Launching Syrian Land Campaign

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While the US was been surprised and angered by the stunningly fast turn of events in Syria where in the span of less than a month Russia unleashed a massive, Syria-based airborne campaign against what it says are ISIS terrorists, even as the US accuses Putin of targeting “moderate rebels”, it has had little recourse in accusing Putin of violating Syrian sovereignty: after all Russia is the only nation that Syria has officially invited to eradicate the “terrorist threat” that is ISIS.

Then, last Friday, Syria raised the stakes once again, when as Bloomberg reported a loyalist of the Assad regime said “terrorism cannot only be fought from the air,” making an appeal for more military involvement to defeat Islamic State.

In a defiant speech at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem criticized the current approach to fighting the group that has conquered swathes of territory and was encroaching on President Bashar al-Assad’s coastal stronghold in Latakia. Those gains triggered Russian intervention.

“Air strikes are useless unless they are coordinated with the Syrian Arab army, the only force to combat terrorism,” al-Muallem, who also holds the title of deputy prime minister, told a largely empty assembly hall on Friday, the last day of speeches.

The logical implication is that Syria will next invite, if it hasn’t already done so, Russian troops to join the Russian airforce in eradicating the great ISIS strawman which until recently was the pretext for “coalition” forces to bombard Syria with complete disregard for Syrian sovereignty, and the intention of destroying Assad’s military so the CIA can conclude a regime change with a pro-western leader, one which will permit the passage of a Qatar gas pipeline.

Whether or not this assessment is accurate is irrelevant, because earlier today the US decided to jump right on it, and as CNN reported, accordint to the latest U.S. assessment of Moscow’s activity in western Syria, “Russia has moved several ground combat weapons and troops into the area to potentially back up Syrian forces in the field planning to attack anti-regime forces, according to two U.S. defense officials.

The U.S. views the move as Russia “stepping up its ground activity” in Syria to attack those forces, rather than ISIS elements,

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The Window Has Closed On The Fed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management,

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DuPont Stock Soars After CEO Quits And Company Slashes H2 EPS Guidance By Nearly 50%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Several months ago activist Nelson Peltz may lost his proxy fight against DuPont, but in retrospect he may be counting his lucky stars as moments ago the company became only the latest chemical giant to admit the gruesome reality of the global economic slump driven by a historic USD surge, when it not only cut its second half operating EPS from $0.75 to $0.40, in the process also slashing full year operating EPS from a prior guidance of $3.10 to just $2.75 mostly blaming Brazil, but in an even bigger shocker also reported that its CEO and Chairman Ellen Kullman is retiring from the company effective October 16.

First, the reason for the dramatic guidance cut, from the company:

DuPont announced that it now expects operating earnings per share for the full year to be approximately $2.75, compared with the prior guidance of $3.10. The revised outlook primarily reflects continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar versus currencies in emerging markets, particularly the Brazilian Real; and a further weakening of agricultural markets, primarily in Brazil. The new guidance assumes full-year currency impacts of $0.72 per share, versus the prior expectation of approximately $0.60 per share. Excluding the impact of currency, the revised guidance for full-year operating earnings per share, including expected benefits from share repurchases and cost savings, represents an approximately 3 percent increase in operating earnings per share year over year. The company now expects second-half operating earnings per share to be approximately $0.40, compared with the prior guidance of $0.75. Approximately 25 percent of expected second-half operating earnings will be earned in the third quarter. Prior year operating earnings were $3.36 and $0.96 per share for the full year and second-half 2014, respectively. Reconciliations of non-GAAP measures are included at the end of this release.

Demand for crop protection and seed products, primarily in Brazil, further weakened in the third quarter impacted by macroeconomic and competitive pressures.  In Brazil, where the planting season is in progress, tighter farmer profit margins and credit are causing growers to be more cautious in their spending.  The company is experiencing reduced demand for crop protection products reflecting low insect pressure and lower seed volumes as growers are expected to reduce hybrid corn planted area.

The U.S dollar continues to strengthen versus currencies in emerging markets.  The Brazilian Real

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Biggest Short Squeeze In 4 Years Leads To Longest Winning Streak Of 2015

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Everything must be awesome, right!!!

This 5-day run is even bigger than the ramp off the October 2014 Bullard lows…

This is the biggest 2-day short-squeeze since October 2011 (the last time the market squeezed like this was after the Black Monday plunge… which saw new lows hit)

Volume was abysmal…

Across asset classes since Payrolls…

*  *  *

Off Friday's lows, the move in stocks is epic…

On the day, cash indices surged again… (note that S&P remains just shy of the 50-day moving average at 2000.25)..

But The Dow rallied back to its 50DMA…

As VIX was clubbed like a baby seal…5th day in a row… (biggest 5 day drop since mid July)

As USDJPY did the heavy-lifting..Spot The Difference..

Energy was the best-performing sector (most squeezed) as crude surged…

Notably, financial stocks bounce is entirely decoupled from credit markets…

While the broad credit market rallied, No deals priced in the high-yield market on Monday.

The primary market has been shut since September 25. Meanwhile spreads continue to widen. The average high-yield bond spread hit a new 2015 high of T+683bp.

The average spreads on Double B, Single "B" and Triple "C" rated credits hit new 2015 highs of T+477bp, T+700bp and T+1323bp, respectively. The high-grade and high-yield average spread differential hit a new 2015 high of 503bp.   

Treasury yields continued to spike all day…

The USD was heavily bid during the US session after weakness again overnight…

Silver has been the biggest winner post-payrolls as Gold, Copper and Crude are all clustered around the same gains…

Charts: Bloomberg

Here’s What Real Americans Think Of “Our Hero” Bernanke

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

There’s nothing like the comment section when it comes to Federal Reserve propaganda in the editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal. Liberty Blitzkrieg readers will remember the last time the WSJ published a disconnected piece of Central Bank stroking garbage from Fed propagandist John Hilsenrath, and the riotous anger which ensued in the comment section. If you missed it, I strongly suggest taking a read: “Revolution is Coming” – The Top 20 Responses to Jon Hilsenrath’s Idiotic WSJ Article.

Fast forward a few months, and here we have Ben “the courage to bail out billionaires” Bernanke writing an almost unreadable piece of propaganda in the WSJ titled “How the Fed Saved the Economy.”

At this point in a post I’d typically highlight the more egregious parts of an Op-Ed, but this one is so bad, so poorly written and completely uninteresting, there’s really no point. If you feel like wasting two minutes of your life go ahead and read it yourself, but it appears to me that it was put together in a couple of seconds by an intern instructed to boost book sales.



What’s far more interesting, is the comment section. Apparently there are 591 comments as of this writing, and if the first page is any indication, WSJ readers are not on the same page as Bernanke. And that’s putting it lightly.

So what do Americans think of our hero? Here are a few examples from the first page alone:

Screen Shot 2015-10-05 at 9.47.25 AM Screen Shot 2015-10-05 at 9.47.33 AM Screen Shot 2015-10-05 at 9.47.49 AM Screen Shot 2015-10-05 at 9.47.56 AM Screen Shot 2015-10-05 at 9.48.16 AM Screen Shot 2015-10-05 at 9.48.33 AM

Thank you for your service Dr. Bernanke.

Screen Shot 2015-08-20 at 3.21.02 PM

Markets Post Gains – Breakout in Dow and Semiconductor Index

Courtesy of Declan.

A fresh day of gains keeps bullish momentum running in healthy action. The Dow was the first index to break past declining resistance established by July – August declining trendline. Volume also climbed to register accumulation.

The Semiconductor Index was another to make a move higher. It cleared declining resistance and the 50-day MA. Better still, it was the first key index to return net bullish in technicals.

This will help the Nasdaq 100 which is just shy of a test of declining resistance. It too enjoyed a day of bullish accumulation. Technicals are not as bullish, but they are improving.

The Russell 2000 had the most ground to make up as it’s the index which has consistently under-performed since July. While other indices have done well, a true bullish recovery will need leadership from this index, which hasn’t come yet.

The S&P broke from declining resistance, but not the key resistance level challenged and broken in the Dow.

Today knocked out a short position I took at resistance in the Dow. Intraday analysis shows an extended sequence of green candles, which suggests short covering, but it was enough to knock me out. Watch for a ‘bull trap’ in the Dow, although buyers will be finding confidence on what is increasingly looking like a double bottom.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.


Zero Hedge

Glencore Stock Is Re-Crashing

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

After 5 days of CEO-confidence-inspired BTFD-ing (a la Bear Stearns), following the 30% collapse at the start of last week, Glencore's stock price is tumbling 7.7% in the early European trading. Following a deep plunge off the open yesterday (which was rallied back to the highs) and extreme volume atthe close, Tuesday's early weakness has pushed the stock to the biggest loss since last Monday's carnage...

The shares rebounded after the firm said its business is “robust” and it has secure access to funding.

But it's not over......

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

People weren't supposed to be saving this much money — and now it's a problem (Business Insider)

So, let's start with the basic premise: Consumers are not economists.

This means that normal people who have a job and then decide what to do with their hard-earned money often make decisions that economists don't expect.

Vietnam's Communists School Indonesia's Capitalists on Economy (Bloomberg)


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Phil's Favorites

Is Russia Plotting To Bring Down OPEC?


Is Russia Plotting To Bring Down OPEC?

Courtesy of Dalan McEndree at

President Putin’s recent moves in the Middle East—to shore up Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria through deployment of combat aircraft, equipment, and manpower and build-out of air-, naval-, and ground-force bases, and the agreement in the last week with Iran, Iraq, and Syria on intelligence and security cooperation—could contribute to Russian efforts to combat the myriad negative pressures on Russia’s vital energy industry.

Live by Energy…

Energy is the foundation of Russia, its economy, its government, and its political system. Put...

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Chart School

Markets Post Gains - Breakout in Dow and Semiconductor Index

Courtesy of Declan.

A fresh day of gains keeps bullish momentum running in healthy action. The Dow was the first index to break past declining resistance established by July - August declining trendline. Volume also climbed to register accumulation.

The Semiconductor Index was another to make a move higher. It cleared declining resistance and the 50-day MA. Better still, it was the first key index to return net bullish in technicals.

This will help the Nasdaq 100 which is ...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sector Detector: Searching for solid support in the face of global headwinds

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Uncertainty about the health of the global economy led investors to flee U.S. equities during Q3, primarily driven by worries about China's growth prospects and the Federal Reserve’s decision to not raise rates. Sure, there are plenty of real and perceived headwinds, but on balance it seems that a recession here at home is not in the cards. And when you consider sentiment and the technical picture, it appears that a continuation of Friday’s bounce is in store. The question remains as to whether the seasonally strong Q4 will be able to propel the bulls through levels of resistance that have built up.

In this weekly update, I give my view o...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Indicator triggers first time since 2000, “Threats & Opportunities” that follow

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

A “Performance Indicator” with a very good track record, just sent an alert, for the first time since the 2000 highs.

Good friend and market strategist Ryan Detrick and I will be discussing “Opportunities” that follow when our 125/5 Indicator gets triggered.

Ryan and I will be conducting a FREE Webinar this Wednesday at 5 PM eastern. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can by CLICKING HERE

One of the many things we will be discussing is how should one construct a portfolio when the 125/5 indicator gets triggered and the “Th...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of October 5th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Some Hedge Funds "Hedged" During Stock Market Sell Off, Others Not As Risk Focused

By Mark Melin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the VIX index jumping 120 percent on a weekly basis, the most in its history, and with the index measuring volatility or "fear" up near 47 percent on the day, one might think professional investors might be concerned. While the sell off did surprise some, certain hedge fund managers have started to dip their toes in the water to buy stocks they have on their accumulation list, while other algorithmic strategies are actually prospering in this volatile but generally consistently trending market.

Stock market sell off surprises some while others were prepared and are hedged prospering

While so...

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Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...

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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 


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Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene


The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

Thank you for you time!

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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