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Stocks Shrug Off Ebola, Surge Most Since 2011, Still A Red October

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Ebola in NYC, no problem. Crappy housing data, all good. School shooting in WA, buying opportunity… and that is how the S&P 500 broke back above its 100-day-moving-average (proving the world is fixed again), and had its biggest low-to-high swing since Dec 2011. It wasn't all great BTFD news today though as small caps underperformed – though still green (just like last Friday), and only Trannies and Russell are green in October. Despite equity exuberance, Treasuries rallied modestly today (ending the week up 8-9bps on the week). HY credit slightly underperformed stocks but compressed 27bps – the biggest weekly drop in spreads since July 2013. The USD rose for the first time in 3 weeks led by JPY and EUR weakness. Oil fell once again, copper rose (since China data), gold and silver mirrored USD's gains. VIX closed down 5 from last week's close just above 16, but like small cap, and JPY carry, decoupled this afternoon. The last 2 weeks were the biggest squeeze of "most shorted" stocks since July 2013.

For old time's sake… as we await the very last POMO (or not) on Monday…

*  *  *

Before we start… next week is last POMO and a press-conference-less FOMC statement… so why aren't bonds loving the growth implied by stocks? Especially if as everyone claims last week saw the capitulation of shorts… We note the 3 blue boxes where equity traders were wrong footed… and now we are back at that level…

 

*  *  *

Small Caps notably underperformed today…

The S&P had its best week since Jan 2013 and biggest 2-week low-to-high swing since Dec 2011…

 

Ripping back above its 100DMA…(and almost 50DMA)

On the week, Nasdaqwas the winner…

And off the Bullard lows…

Only Trannies and Russell 2000 are green for October though…

 

And here is the last 24 hours…

 

VIX dropped from 21.99 last friday to just above 16 – but notably decoupled

 

So looks like longs are hedging into the ramps and the rally is short covering as "most shorted" stocks have the best 2 weeks in 15 months…

HY Credit's best week in 15 months…

Treasuries were unchanged today but ended the week 8-9bps higher in yield…

The USD…
continue reading





Friday Humor: Windows 10

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

“Windows 10 – We finally fixed everything”

h/t @BarbarianCap





Hyperventilation Charade: EU Demands Another €2.1 Billion from UK, “We Won’t Pay,” Says Furious Cameron

Courtesy of Mish.

Things are about to get more interesting in the EU as a review of budget procedures shows the UK, Greece, and Italy owe more money, but Germany and France will get money back.

Curiously, this came about following a review of non-profit organizations from churches and universities to trade unions, charities and sports clubs. The time period is 2002-2009.

Cameron’s Obvious Bluff

UK prime minister David Cameron is already battling French President Francois Hollande abroad, and UKIP at home.

Thus, Cameron’s limited choice is to bluff as usual: “We Won’t Pay,” Says Furious Cameron.

In a vivid display of public fury at European Union technocrats, British Prime Minister David Cameron refused to pay a surprise 2.1-billion-euro bill on Friday as EU leaders ordered an urgent review of how the budget figures were arrived at.

“It’s an appalling way to behave,” Cameron said. “I’m not paying that bill on Dec. 1. If people think I am they’ve got another thing coming. It is not going to happen.”

EU ministers will hold an emergency meeting on the issue next month. Cameron said he wanted to understand the technical calculations and was also ready to mount a legal challenge.

EU officials insisted the revision, which also saw Italy and even crisis-hit Greece asked to pay more while France and Germany would get rebates, was part of an annual statistical exercise handled by civil servants, not politicians.

Cameron noted that annual revisions to the payments had never been so great – an effect, EU officials said, of a once-in-a-generation review of how national incomes are calculated that found Britain was richer than it had previously declared.

Officials at EU statistics office Eurostat said that was a result mainly of taking more account of money flowing in 2002-09 to non-profit organizations – from churches and universities to trade unions, charities and sports clubs.

Cameron has demanded reforms and plans a referendum on EU membership if he manages to secure re-election next May….



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The Chart That All “Above Average Intelligence Traders” Ignored Today

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Ebola seems like a lame excuse, frankly, but it’s a widespread one. Assuming that everyone in the market has above-average intelligence we don’t think they’ll trade Ebola headlines any more than they traded Greece election headlines a while back,” CRT strategist David Ader writes.

 

3 Things to consider…

1) This Chart…

 

2) It’s not about being smart

“It is not a case of choosing those [faces] that, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those that average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.

 

(Keynes, General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, 1936).

and

3) How do you measure the IQ of a vacuum tube?


*  *  *

Of course this all makes perfect sense until we get the next Ebola headline…





Why The Market Kept Breaking Yesterday

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

When markets broke on Wednesday, XIV soared, stocks followed and the volumeless levitation was praised by all as evidence that the world was once again fixed. Yesterday we also saw NYSE Euronext ‘break‘ into the European melt-up close, and later that day, as Ebola headlines hit, the market once again broke numerous times with various exchanges declaring self-help against one another as stocks tumbled on heavy volume. If you are wondering how it is that “the great stock markets in the world” can break so often (and be so ignored by financial media), Nanex exposes the act… as massive quote spamming yesterday sent OPRA to full capacity (broke the efficient flow of data in markets) 13 times

As Nanex’s Eric Hunsader explains each peak over 10 milloin quotes per second – ocurring after a sale of 1025 S&P 500 e-mini contracts – temporarily maxed capacity at OPRA and broke markets… (and a 15 point insta-plunge occurred)

 

 

and here are the major stocks reacting to the order floods…

 

Source: Nanex @NanexLLC

*  *  *

And here is why ISE broke yesterday – Rule 720A

In other words, someone/thing was sending enough fake orders that ISE invoked Rule 720A and shut the system down.





Institutional Fish: “It’s All Just A Pretend Game”

By Raul Ilargi Meijer at The Automatic Earth

 


Jack Delano. Cars being precooled at the ice plant, San Bernardino, CA Mar 1943

 

Large and/or institutional investors, your pension funds, your market funds, you name them, have one glaringly obvious and immense Achilles heel that they very much prefer not to talk about. That is, they MUST invest their funds, in something, anything, they can’t NOT invest. They are trapped in the game. They have to roll over debt, investments, all the time.

In today’s markets, they can move into Treasuries, as we see bond funds (and undoubtedly others) do recently, and while that’s already a sign of unrest in the ranks, at the same time it exposes the funds. And not only because everyone knows it won’t allow them to meet the targets they must meet. Oil, gas and gold are unattractive alternatives.

The big funds can play the game, but they really shouldn’t, because they can’t win. Not in the end. Not when the chips are down. The reason is that they cannot fold. And the others at the table know this, and immediately recognize this for the fatal flaw it is. No matter how smart and sophisticated institutional investors and their fund managers may be, in ultimo they are, to put it in poker terms, the ‘designated’ fish.

It may take a long time before this plays out, and they realize it for what it is (fish don’t recognize themselves for what they are, other than, and even that’s a maybe, once they’ve been exposed as such by others), since in times of plenty there is no urgent need for the other players to catch and filet the fish.

As long as there’s enough to eat at the table, the ‘solid’ players can bide their time and let the fish fatten themselves (as long as it’s not from their money), only to gut them when times get leaner. In a way, the solid players use the fish as a way to stow away for a rainy day some of the ultra cheap QE money has made available, the money without which there would be no markets left, if only so their own actions don’t become too conspicuous.

Funds…
continue reading





Shots Fired At High School North Of Seattle; 6 Reportedly Injured, Possible 2 Fatal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

There is a large police presence at Marysville-Pilchuk High School  (Marysville, WA). School officials said there is an emergency situation at the school and the building is locked down. Three students and a teacher reported hearing gunshots. Airlift Northwest confirms that they are transporting two patients, but didn't give more information.

"Our son just called to let us know that his kids are ok – his son was about 50 feet from the shooter – a student that he knows.  Our grandson and his friends ran away – jumped a fence and went to a home in the area.  He didn't know about any victims but thought there was at least one," said Tom Hopper, who emailed KIRO 7.

As KIRO TV reports,

Casey Blakley and his daughter were driving by the school when they say the huge police response.

 

“About every 30 seconds school I had to pull over because there were so many cops and paramedics going by,” he said. “The road was blocked off from about two blocks away

 

“There were a bunch of kids on the next block that apparently fled the school. They were all huddled together talking to cars that drove by.”

Live Feed (via KOMO News) – click image for live feed

 

Location of High School:

 

The Marysville School District released the following statement:

"The Marysville Pilchuck High School is currently in lock down due to an emergency situation. Police and emergency services have responded. The Marysville School District lock down procedures will remain in effect at Marysville Pilchuck until further notice from law enforcement. We will continue to forward communication in cooperation with law enforcement."

School Campus map:





Putin Warns Of Risk Of Major Conflict, Says Dollar Losing Reserve Currency Status

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Having been relatively quiet for a while, Russia’s leader Vladimir, speaking in Sochi (following meetings with Middle East crown princes who confirmed Russia as a key partner – “isolated”?), has unleashed his most aggressive statements with regard the failing world order:

  • *PUTIN SAYS U.S. DOLLAR LOSING TRUST AS RESERVE CURRENCY
  • *PUTIN: WORLD WITHOUT RULES IS POSSIBILITY; ANARCHY GROWING

Adding that the risk of major conflicts involving major countries is growing, as well as the risk of arms control treaties being violated, Putin exclaimed that the US-led unipolar world is like a dictatorship over other countries and that “US leadership brings no good for others,” and calls for a new global consensus.

 

Having met Crown Prince Al Nahyan of Abu Dhabi in Sochi, who confirmed that Moscow “plays a very important role in the Middle East,” and added that he had no doubts that his country and Russia “are bound by a privileged relationship,” it appears Russia is less “isolated” than the West would have many believe.

As Bloomberg reports:

  • *PUTIN SPEAKS AT MEETING OF VALDAI CLUB IN SOCHI
  • *PUTIN SAYS WORLD GROWING LESS SECURE, PREDICTABLE
  • *PUTIN SAYS NO GUARANTEE OF GLOBAL SECURITY
  • *GLOBAL SECURITY SYSTEM IS WEAK, DEFORMED: PUTIN
  • *COLD WAR ENDED WITHOUT PEACE BEING ACHIEVED: PUTIN
  • *PUTIN SAYS COLD WAR `VICTORS’ DISMANTLING INTL LAWS, RELATIONS
  • *U.S. HAS WORSENED DISBALANCE IN INTL RELATIONS: PUTIN
  • *PUTIN SAYS U.S.  ACTING LIKE NOUVEAU RICHE AS GLOBAL LEADER
  • *PUTIN SAYS WORLD LEADERS BEING BLACKMAILED BY `BIG BROTHER’
  • *U.S. LEADERSHIP BRINGS NO GOOD FOR OTHERS: PUTIN
  • *PUTIN SEES GLOBAL MEDIA UNDER CONTROL, UNDERMINING TRUTH
  • *PUTIN SAYS WEST CLOSED EYES TO INTL TERRORISM ENTERING RUSSIA
  • *PUTIN CALLS U.S. SELF-APPOINTED LEADER
  • *PUTIN: UNIPOLAR WORLD LIKE DICTATORSHIP OVER OTHER COUNTRIES
  • *PUTIN SAYS MANY COUNTRIES DISENCHANTED W/ GLOBALIZATION: PUTIN
  • *PUTIN SAYS U.S. DOLLAR LOSING TRUST AS RESERVE CURRENCY
  • *RUSSIA WON’T BEG FOR ANYTHING: PUTIN
  • *SANCTIONS UNDERMINING WORLD TRADE ORGANISATION RULES: PUTIN
  • *RUSSIA ISN’T WALLING ITSELF OFF FROM WORLD, PUTIN SAYS
  • *RUSSIA READY FOR DIALOGUE ON NORMALIZING ECONOMIC TIES: PUTIN
  • *PUTIN: WORLD WITHOUT RULES IS POSSIBILITY; ANARCHY GROWING
  • *PUTIN CALLS FOR NEW GLOBAL CONSENSUS, INTERDEPENDENCE
  • *PUTIN: CONTINUED USE OF FORCE IN UKRAINE MAY LEAD TO DEAD END
  • *PUTIN SAYS U.S. CAN’T HUMILIATE ITS PARTNERS FOREVER

*  *  *

Fighting talk?

*  *  *

Escalation? It seems sabre-rattling is picking up…
continue reading





Chart Of The Day: Jeff Bezos “Value Creation” Edition

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Yesterday, we summarized all that was wrong in Amazon’s worst quarter in history where apparently one can no longer “make up for negative profits with volume.”

Here is another way of deconstructing Amazon’s love-hate relationship with profitability: in all of its 20+ year history, Amazon has generated under $2 billion in Net Income. The offset? Jeff Bezos’ net worth, which according to Bloomberg is about $30 billion (that was the number in April, when Bezos had lost a whopping $6.5 billion due to the collapse of AMZN, by now the number is surely far lower making Bezos the biggest billionaire loser in 2014). Still, for indicative purposes, the data is good enough.

In short: this is what Jeff Bezos’ value creation looks like (one does wonders if Amazon has purposefully been a perennial “bottom-line loser” for decades simply to avoid paying taxes).

 

And as a bonus chart, this from the WSJ:

Inspired by @ReutersJamie





Caption Contest: “No Tongues” Edition

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

To ‘prove’ everything is fine, President Obama met with and hugged Ebola-survivor Nina Pham today… The White House confirms no bodily fluids were exchanged during the meeting…

  • *EARNEST SAYS OBAMA SAW NO RISK HUGGING NURSE CURED OF EBOLA

“No Tongues!”





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Zero Hedge

Pope: "Corruption Is a Greater Evil than Sin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

Modern interpretation of Christ driving the money changers from the temple by Anthony Freda/Daniel Zollinger

 

Preface: If you are an atheist (or adherent of another faith) and believe that the Catholic faith is crazy, you are obviously entitled to your belief.  But please remember that very few A...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 4.12% for the Week

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The S&P 500 oscillated a bit during its opening hour, hitting its -0.23% intraday low in the first 30 minutes of trading. The index then rose in a couple of waves to its 0.71% closing gain, fractionally off its 0.74% intraday high. This was a big week for the 500, surging 4.12% and nearly erasing its October loss, which now stands at -0.39%. It is now only 2.33% from its record close on September 18th.

The yield on the 10-year Note closed at 2.29%, unchanged from yesterday's close and up 7 bps from last Friday's close.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the week.

On the daily chart below we see that volume was relatively light -- the first daily gain with volume below its 50-day moving average since September 26th. Today's closing price is just a hair below its 50-day day moving average.

...

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Phil's Favorites

Ten Insane Things We Believe On Wall Street

Ten Insane Things We Believe On Wall Street

Courtesy of 

To outsiders, Wall Street is a manic, dangerous and ridiculous republic unto itself – a sort of bizarro world where nothing adds up and common sense is virtually inapplicable.

Consider the following insane things that we believe on Wall Street, that make no sense whatsoever in the real world:

1. Falling gas and home heating prices are a bad thing

2. Layoffs are great news, the more the better

3. Billionaires from Greenwich, CT can understand the customers of JC Penney, Olive Garden, K-Mart and Sears

4. A company is plagued by the fact&nbs...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

UPDATE: Morgan Stanley Reiterates On ResMed Following 1Q15 Earnings Report

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related RMD Morning Market Movers Qualcomm Announces New Connected Health Collaborations at Connect 2014

In a report published Friday, Morgan Stanley analyst Sean Laaman reiterated an Equal-Weight rating on ResMed (NYSE: RMD), and raised the price target from $46.19 to $49.57.

In the report, Morgan Stanley noted, “Currency headwinds and part quarter release of the S10 downplayed expectations ahead of the result. Despite this, RMD beat on US revenue driv...



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Market Shadows

Bill Ackman's Big Pharma Trade Is Making Wall Street A Super Awkward Place

 

#452525522 / gettyimages.com

Intro by Ilene

If you're following Valeant's proposed takeover (or merger) of Allergan and the lawsuit by Allergan against Valeant and notorious hedge fund manager William Ackman, for insider trading this is a must-read article. 

Linette Lopez describes the roles played by key Wall Street hedge fund owners--Jim Chanos, John Paulson, and Mason Morfit, a major shareholder in Valeant. Linette goes through the con...



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Option Review

LUV Options Active Ahead Of Earnings

There is lots of action in Southwest Airlines Co. November expiry call options today ahead of the air carrier’s third-quarter earnings report prior to the opening bell on Thursday. Among the large block trades initiated throughout the trading session, there appears to be at least one options market participant establishing a call spread in far out of the money options. It looks like the trader purchased a 4,000-lot Nov 37/39 call spread at a net premium of $0.40 apiece. The trade makes money if shares in Southwest rally 9.0% over the current price of $34.32 to exceed the effective breakeven point at $37.40, with maximum potential profits of $1.60 per contract available in the event that shares jump more than 13% to $39.00 by expiration. In September, the stock tou...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Sharp selloff in stocks sets up long-awaiting buying opportunity

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last week brought even more stock market weakness and volatility as the selloff became self-perpetuating, with nobody mid-day on Wednesday wanting to be the last guy left holding equities. Hedge funds and other weak holders exacerbated the situation. But the extreme volatility and panic selling finally led some bulls (along with many corporate insiders) to summon a little backbone and buy into weakness, and the market finished the week on a high note, with continued momentum likely into the first part of this week.

Despite concerns about global economic growth and a persistent lack of inflation, especially given all the global quantitative easing, fundamentals for U.S. stocks still look good, and I believe this overdue correction ultimately will shape up to be a great buying opportunity -- i.e., th...



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Digital Currencies

Goodbye War On Drugs, Hello Libertarian Utopia. Dominic Frisby's Bitcoin: The Future of Money?

Courtesy of John Rubino.

Now that bitcoin has subsided from speculative bubble to functioning currency (see the price chart below), it’s safe for non-speculators to explore the whole “cryptocurrency” thing. So…is bitcoin or one of its growing list of competitors a useful addition to the average person’s array of bank accounts and credit cards — or is it a replacement for most of those things? And how does one make this transition?

With his usual excellent timing, London-based financial writer/actor/stand-up comic Dominic Frisby has just released Bitcoin: The Future of Money? in which he explains all this in terms most readers will have no tr...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of October 20th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly. Just sign in with your PSW user name and password. (Or take a free trial.)

#457319216 / gettyimages.com

 

...

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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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