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Constitution 1 – 0 Government: NSA Starts Winding Down Bulk Data Collection

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As we detailed earlier, in a chaotic scene during the wee hours of Saturday, Senate Republicans blocked a bill known as the USA Freedom Act - backed by President Barack Obama, House Republicans and the nation's top law enforcement and intelligence officials – which would have preserved the government's ability to search phone company records for suspected spies and terrorists. As AP reports, the failure to act means the NSA will immediately begin curtailing its previously-secret bulk data collection progreams with The DoJ noting that while it will take time to taper off the collection process, that process began Friday (according to an administration official). Sen. Rand Paul called the Senate's failure to allow an extension of the surveillance programs a victory for privacy rights, adding "we should never give up our rights for a false sense of security."

We explained Rand Paul's refusal to play by the Washington script earlier and how the Senate failure to extend the Patriot Act leaves the future of America's "war against terrorists"but really against "enemies domestic", i.e., anyone who uses email, has a cell phone or in any other electronic way communicates with othersin limbo.

Now, it appears, as AP reports, the de-esclation of The NSA is escalating rather faster than many had dared to hope for…

The National Security Agency has begun winding down its collection and storage of American phone records after the Senate failed to agree on a path forward to change or extend the once-secret program ahead of its expiration at the end of the month.

Barring an 11th hour compromise when the Senate returns to session May 31, a much-debated provision of the Patriot Act – and some other lesser known surveillance tools – will sunset at midnight that day. The change also would have a major impact on the FBI, which uses the Patriot Act and the other provisions to gather records in investigations of suspected spies and terrorists.

In a chaotic scene during the wee hours of Saturday, Senate Republicans blocked a bill known as the USA Freedom Act, which would have ended the NSA's bulk collection but preserved its ability to search the records held by the phone companies on a case-by-case basis. The bill was backed by President Barack Obama, House Republicans and


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‘Titanic’ Global Economy May “Collapse” Warn HSBC – Gold Is Lifeboat

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by GoldCore.

‘Titanic’ Global Economy May “Collapse” Warn HSBC – Gold Is Lifeboat

-“The world economy is like an ocean liner without lifeboats …” – HSBC
- Four areas of high risk identified by HSBC
- Risk of stock market crash
- Pension funds and insurers may not meet obligations
- Chinese recession may drag U.S. into recession or depression
- Premature rate rise would expose very fragile global economy
- “There aren’t enough lifeboats to go round”
- Gold vital lifeboat when global ship strikes iceberg  

goldcore_chart1_22-05-15
The chief economist of the world’s third largest bank, HSBC’s Stephen King, has compared the global economy to the Titanic.

In a note to clients on Wednesday he wrote “We may not know what will cause the next downswing but, at this stage, we can categorically state that, in the event we hit an iceberg, there aren’t enough lifeboats to go round.”

“The world economy is like an ocean liner without lifeboats.” As we have been warning in recent months, when another recession arrives, governments do not have the ability or the reserves to prop up the economy like they did in 2008.

Global debt has soared by 40 percent since the Great Recession. We now have a staggering $200 trillion of debt globally, or almost three times the size of the global economy. It would be a “truly titanic struggle” for policymakers to right the economy, King said.

He believes that we are now nearer to the next global recession than we are to the last one which ended six years ago. In that time, however, the world has amassed mountains of new unpayable debt – expanding 25% in the last six years – and the U.S. economy has been sluggish despite an unprecedented wave of money printing which was intended to boost the economy. Indeed, post recession growth has never been so anaemic in recent history.

goldcore_chart2_22-05-15

This weakness has left policy makers ill-equipped to deal with the next crisis,

“Whereas previous recoveries have enabled monetary and fiscal policymakers to replenish their ammunition, this recovery – both in the US and elsewhere – has been distinguished by a persistent munitions shortage. This is a major problem. In all recessions since the 1970s, the US Fed funds rate has fallen by a minimum of 5 percentage points. That kind of traditional stimulus is now completely ruled out.”

Elsewhere…
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Cold War 2.0: Visualizing All Recent “Close Encounters” Between Russian And NATO Warplanes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Lately, not a day seems to pass without news of NATO jets being scrambled to intercept/reroute a Russian warplane or reconnaisance jet. As a result, David Cenciotti’s The Aviationist blog has compiled the recent history of all the “close encounters” between Russian and NATO warplanes since 2013. In a 69-page e-book he has summarized “all the most significant close encounters” to show “how routine interceptions have become recurrent, tenser and more dangerous; the proof that we live in a new Cold War, or a “Cold War 2.0?, as we dubbed it.”

The full e-book can be found below (link), while a quick summary showing just how provocative the two sides have become toward one another, can be seen on the infographic below.

Presenting David Cenciotti’s, COLD WAR 2.0: All the most significant close encounters between NATO and Russian warplanes since 2013





Cold War 2.0: Mapping All Recent “Close Encounters” Between Russian And NATO Warplanes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Lately, not a day seems to pass without news of NATO jets being scrambled to intercept/reroute a Russian warplane or reconnaisance jet. As a result, David Cenciotti’s The Aviationist blog has compiled the recent history of all the “close encounters” between Russian and NATO warplanes since 2013. In a 69-page e-book he has summarized “all the most significant close encounters” to show “how routine interceptions have become recurrent, tenser and more dangerous; the proof that we live in a new Cold War, or a “Cold War 2.0?, as we dubbed it.”

The full e-book can be found below (link), while a quick summary showing just how provocative the two sides have become toward one another, can be seen on the infographic below.

Presenting David Cenciotti’s, COLD WAR 2.0: All the most significant close encounters between NATO and Russian warplanes since 2013





ISIS: Mapping A Militant Expansion

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

To let the media tell it, ISIS has launched a successful “offensive” of late, taking control of Palmyra, a Syrian city that’s home to ‘treasures of antiquity’, as well as Ramadi, which gives the group control of  “strategic highway linking Iraq and Syria.”

ISIS has also claimed responsibility for a mosque bombing that claimed the lives of 21 Saudis on Friday. 

As the US moves closer to putting boots on the ground, The New York Times is out with a series of graphics which document the group’s spread. 

Note that the last graphic — which depicts a giant globe with highlights on “countries with groups that have pledged allegiance to ISIS” — makes it look like ISIS has launched a Naziesque blitzkrieg on the way to invading multiple countries. This, of course, is completely absurd. There are a lot of groups who can claim membership in a lot of countries meaning that we could produce a lot of these maps if we wanted to, but it wouldn’t mean that any of said groups were on the verge of a Napoleonic global conquest.

But reality never got in the way of a good story.





Steen Jakobsen Warns, Brace For The Next Recession

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Saxobank's Steen Jakobsen via TradingFloor.com,

Steen Jakobsen's first major trading strategy change since 2013…

And here's why…

  • Significant changes to our JABA model's long-term outlook
  • Inopportune rise in gold and energy prices expected
  • Commodities will outperform and yields will add another 100 bps
  • Europe will suffer downturn and the US will flirt with recession in 2016

 Gold is one of those items that should outperform over the longer term. Photo: iStock
 
Saxo Bank’s JABA model rarely makes significant changes to its long-term outlook, but this quarter is different. Not only do we expect a steep increase in yields but higher gold and energy prices too.
The dynamics at work are plenty: The model’s predictions are always based on the lead-lag of different economic factors. Think of each economic data point, each market price as having its own Sinus curve. Once in a while this multitude of Sinus curves moves in the one direction and this time it’s upwards in the second half of 2015.
The biggest “news” is that we are very close to the secular low in interest rates globally. This will have material impact on stocks, fixed income and asset allocation over the coming one to five years, and probably an “upside-down” return profile relative to performance since the financial crisis started. Commodities will outperform and yields will move up by another 100 bps before Europe once again slides to downturn and the US flirts with recession in early 2016.
 
The headlines for the next 6-7 months say:

  • US, German and EU core government bonds will be 100 bps higher by and in Q4 before making its final new low in H1 2016. US 10-year yield will trade above 3.0% and Bunds above 1.25%
  • Energy: WTI crude will hit US $70-80/barrel, setting up excellent energy returns.
  • US dollar will weaken to EUR1.18/1.20 before retest of lows and then start multi-year weakness.
  • Gold will be the best performer in commodity-led rally. We see 1425/35 by year-end.
US 10-year yield next cycle  >3.25% then <1.50% then normalisation
dollar

Source: Bloomberg 

Next cycle for the US dollar  – test of new lows until 2019
eurusd

 Source: Bloomberg
 
US trade-weighted dollar index: gains first, then slides
trade weighted


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Hillary Clinton’s Speech Requirements: Private Jets, Presidential Suites And Lots Of Cash

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Late last month we highlighted an IB Times report which showed that Goldman Sachs paid Bill Clinton some $200,000 for a speech ahead of an effort to lobby The State Department (then led by Hillary Clinton) on Export-Import Bank legislation tied to a $75 million purchase order from a Chinese company to a Goldman-owned aircraft manufacturer. 

The idea that the paid speech and the authorization of an Export-Import Bank loan to the Chinese firm were related was of course dismissed as “preposterous” by Goldman (draw your own conclusions) but what certainly isn’t preposterous is the fact that the Clintons reap millions for speaking engagements and as you can see from the following, if you want a Clinton, a quarter-million in cash isn’t all you’ll need to budget for.

Here is the rest:

As a reminder, Hillary is running for “everyday Americans.” Full requirement list:

 





Project Bookend: BoE Emails Guardian Top Secret Documents on Brexit, Including PR Notes on How to Deny the Project

Courtesy of Mish.

Incompetence at Its Finest

Here's a major laugh for a long holiday weekend in the US: Secret Bank of England taskforce investigates financial fallout of Brexit

Bank of England officials are secretly researching the financial shocks that could hit Britain if there is a vote to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum.

The Bank blew its cover on Friday when it accidentally emailed details of the project – including how the bank intended to fend off any inquiries about its work – direct to the Guardian.

According to the confidential email, the press and most staff in Threadneedle Street must be kept in the dark about the work underway, which has been dubbed Project Bookend.

The revelation is likely to embarrass the bank governor, Mark Carney, who has overhauled the central bank’s operations and promised greater transparency over its decision-making.

MPs are now likely to ask whether the Bank intended to inform parliament that a major review of Britain’s prospects outside the EU was being undertaken by the institution that acts as the UK’s main financial regulator. Carney is also likely to come under pressure within the Bank to reveal whether there are other undercover projects underway.

Officials are likely to have kept the project under wraps to avoid entering the highly charged debate around the EU referendum, which has jumped to the top of the political agenda since the Conservatives secured an overall majority. Many business leaders and pro-EU campaigners have warned that “Brexit” would hit British exports and damage the standing of the City of London.

The email indicates that a small group of senior staff are to examine the effect of a Brexit under the authority of Sir Jon Cunliffe, who as deputy director for financial stability has responsibility for monitoring the risk of another market crash.

The email, from Cunliffe’s private secretary to four senior executives, was written on 21 May and forwarded by mistake to a Guardian editor by the Bank’s head of press, Jeremy Harrison.

Secret Agent Man

I offer the following musical tribute in "honor" of secret projects of the Bank of England.


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Rand Paul: Unleashing the American Dream

Courtesy of Mish.

Those living in or near Chicago have the opportunity to hear Senator Rand Paul in a discussion about how to transform Chicago, the state of Illinois and the U.S. with liberty-based public policy solutions.

  • Date:  Wednesday, May 27, 2015 from 12:30 PM to 2:00 PM (CDT)
  • Location: The 1871 Center at the Merchandise Mart, 222 West Merchandise Mart Plaza Chicago, IL 60654.

Cost of the event is $10.

The topic is "Unequal economic opportunity, failing schools and a broken criminal-justice system," as opposed to the Chicago pension crisis that I have been talking about lately.

Senator Paul is reaching out to minorities in inner cities, and that is a good thing.

I am trying to see if they can arrange a live video feed, but the preliminary indication is no.

The Illinois Policy Institute is sponsoring the event. To purchase a ticket or for media queries, please contact Eventbrite at Unleashing the American Dream.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

 




Hillary Clinton’s Minimum Speech Requirements

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Late last month we highlighted an IB Times report which showed that Goldman Sachs paid Bill Clinton some $200,000 for a speech ahead of an effort to lobby The State Department (then led by Hillary Clinton) on Export-Import Bank legislation tied to a $75 million purchase order from a Chinese company to a Goldman-owned aircraft manufacturer. 

The idea that the paid speech and the authorization of an Export-Import Bank loan to the Chinese firm were related was of course dismissed as “preposterous” by Goldman (draw your own conclusions) but what certainly isn’t preposterous is the fact that the Clintons reap millions for speaking engagements and as you can see from the following, if you want a Clinton, a quarter-million in cash isn’t all you’ll need to budget for.

Here is the rest:

As a reminder, Hillary is running for “everyday Americans.” Full requirement list:

 





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

The Original Chechnya Bombers - The CIA, The Saudis And Bin Laden

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by F. William Engdahl via New Eastern Outlook,

What if Putin is Telling The Truth?

On April 26 Russia’s main national TV station, Rossiya 1, featured President Vladimir Putin in a documentary to the Russian people on the events of the recent period including the annexation of Crimea, the US coup d’etat in Ukraine, and the general state of relations with the United States and the EU. His words were frank. And in the middle of his remarks the Russian former KGB chief dropped a political bombshell that was known by Russian intelligence two decades ago.

...

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Chart School

eToro Review

Courtesy of Declan.

763 followers 76 copiers A solid jump in both followers and copiers from the start of the month. This was in large part to my top-10 ranking in their People screener. Having said that, last week finished very poorly for me. Overtraded and wa...

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Phil's Favorites

"New Silk Road" Could Change Global Economics Forever, Part 1

Courtesy of Robert Berke of OilPrice.com

Part 1: The New Silk Road

Beginning with the marvelous tales of Marco Polo’s travels across Eurasia to China, the Silk Road has never ceased to entrance the world. Now, the ancient cities of Samarkand, Baku, Tashkent, and Bukhara are once again firing the world’s imagination.

China is building the world’s greatest economic development and construction project ever undertaken: The New Silk Road. The project aims at no less than a revolutionary change in the economic map of the world. It is also seen by many as the first shot in a battle between east and west for dominance in Eurasia.

The ambitious vision is to resurrect the ancient Silk Road as a modern transit, trade, and economic corridor that runs from Shanghai to Berlin. T...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

King Dollar & Crude Oil reversing ST trends, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

King Dollar and Crude Oil have been have had little correlation over the past year, as each has traded in pretty much opposite directions.

Over the past 9 months King Dollar has had a historical rally and the opposite is true for Crude Oil.

Of late Crude hit its 23% Fibonacci resistance line, based upon last summers weekly closing highs and weekly closing low on 3/13/15.

Joe Friday just the facts….Crude oil is making an attempt to break short-term steep rising support this week and King Dollar is attempting to break short-term steep falling resistance.

Crude oil just experienced its 7th largest 2-month rally in its...



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Pharmboy

Big Pharma's Business Model is Changing

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Understanding the new normal of a business model is key to the success of any company.  The managment of companies need to adapt to the changing demand, but first they must recognize what changes are taking place.  Big Pharma's business model is changing rapidly, and much like the airline industry, there will be but a handful of pharma companies left at the end of this path.

Most Big Pharma companies have traditionally done everything from research and development (R&D) through to commercialisation themselves. Research was proprietary, and diseases were cherry picked on the back of academic research that was done using NIH grants.  This was in the heyday of research, where multiple companies had drugs for the same target (Mevocor, Zocor, Crestor, Lipitor), and could reap the rewards on multiple scales.  However, in the c...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bullish technical picture appears to trump cautious fundamentals

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

By Scott Martindale

Stocks closed last week on a strong note, with the S&P 500 notching a new high, despite lackluster economic data and growth. I have been suggesting in previous articles that stocks appeared to be coiling for a significant move but that the ingredients were not yet in place for either a major breakout or a corrective selloff. However, bulls appear to be losing patience awaiting their next definitive catalyst, and the higher-likelihood upside move may now be underway. Yet despite the bullish technical picture, this week’s fundamentals-based Outlook rankings look even more defensive.

In this weekly update, I give ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 18th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

 

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

By 

Excerpt:

Bitcoin, the virtual digital currency, has been called the future of banking, a dangerous fad, and almost everything in between, but we're finally about to get some solid data to help settle the debate.

On Monday, the Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock exchange said it would ...



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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: US Dollar

Which way from here?

Chris Kimble likes the idea of shorting the US dollar if it bounces higher. Phil's likes the dollar better long here. These views are not inconsistent, actually, the dollar could bounce and drop again. We'll be watching. 

 

Phil writes:  If the Fed begins to tighten OR if Greece defaults OR if China begins to fall apart OR if Japan begins to unwind, then the Dollar could move 10% higher.  Without any of those things happening – you still have the Fed pursuing a relatively stronger currency policy than the rest of the G8.  So, if anything, I think the pressure should be up, not down.  

 

UNLESS that 95 line does ultimately fail (as opposed to this being bullish consolidation at the prior breakout point), then I'd prefer to sell the UUP Jan $25 puts for $0.85 and buy the Sept $24 call...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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