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How Japanese Hyperinflation Starts (In 1 Chart)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The Japanese Yen’s real effective exchange rate (REER) has collapsed to the weakest since 1982, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. Simply put, REER is a trade-weighted measure of Yen strength (or weakness) against, in this case, 59 trading partners; and as the nation posts an unprecedented 27th straight month of trade deficits [43rd straight month of Seasonally-adjusted trade deficits], Bloomberg reports MUFJ indicates “a structural shift” has taken place.

 

 

As a reminder, the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) is:

The weighted average of a country’s currency relative to an index or basket of other major currencies adjusted for the effects of inflation.

 

The weights are determined by comparing the relative trade balances, in terms of one country’s currency, with each other country within the index.

 

This exchange rate is used to determine an individual country’s currency value relative to the other major currencies in the index, as adjusted for the effects of inflation.

 

This is also the value that an individual consumer will pay for an imported good at the consumer level. This price will include any tariffs and transactions costs associated with importing the good.

In the case of an average Japanese person who likes Big Macs, they will pay 71% more (in JPY) for the McDonalds’ haute cuisine if they come to America than they would at home.

*  *  *

In the case of the Yen, MUFJ warns, “In Japan’s post-float history, the strength of demand for dollars and other foreign currencies among importers has never been higher.”

This is a problem as Daisaku Ueno exclaims, “If the trade deficit doesn’t noticeably narrow from here, the yen’s real effective rate could fall to levels never seen before,” and, ominously, “from a supply and demand perspective, yen selling for foreign currency by Japanese importers will just continue endlessly.

*  *  *

And sure enough, tonight’s trade deficit is the worst in 6months as imports surge…

*  *  *

Simply put – as Kyle Bass has warned all along – the JPY becomes self-fulfillingly destroyed by the vicious cycle of trade deficit-facing importers who need to pay in foreign exchange for goods received… et voila, hyperinflation (or the BoJ entirely reverses track and blows up the world’s carry traders) and Japan becomes Venezuela…

Source: Bloomberg





“Saudi’s Policy Of Downplaying Oil Prices Will Backfire On Them”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Saudi Arabia wants to use lower oil prices to pressure Russia to change its stance on Syria, to antagonize Iran, and to force US shale gas out of the market, Pepe Escobar explains the possible blowback

Via RT,

RT: Russia’s economy is surely being hit by the falling oil prices. But what about other oil producers like the OPEC states?

Pepe Escobar: A lot of people are being hurt. There are more or less 20 nations that need oil at least for 50 percent of their budget. Among these nations we’ll find especially a mix of African countries and Persian Gulf countries, that includes Saudi Arabia and Iraq as well, Venezuela and Ecuador. So it’s very complicated, it’s not only to hurt Russia…

RT: Saudi Arabia is one of the OPEC members and it is supposed to collaborate its oil price policy with other members. Why it is acting like this?

PE: OPEC is not a moralistic organization. There has been a lot of speculation about what Saudi Arabia has been doing. In fact, their strategy is still faulty – they want lower oil prices to pressure Russia vis-à-vis Syria, change their stance vis-à-vis Damascus and they want to more or less price shale gas from the US out of the market, and also pressure Iran vis-à-vis what’s going on in the Middle East, the famous Saudi-Iranian antagonism. This is not going to work in the long run because even Saudi Arabia will be in trouble if we have a barrel of oil like it was projected for the first quarter of 2015 between $70 and $80, now it’s a round $86-87. So they will be in trouble as well, their strategy in the long run is going to backfire.

RT: So, how long are these major oil exporting countries going to follow this strategy? When will they think of their own economic interests?

PE: When we look at the breakeven for most of these countries in terms of their state budget – how much they need a barrel of oil to cost if they can more or less even their expenses? When we look at the latest table – which is a composite of indexes from the Economist, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters – Venezuela and Ecuador need oil at $120…
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Fed Inspector General Finds NY Fed Knew Of JPMorgan ‘Whale’ Risks In 2010, “Missed Opportunity”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Just two years after “The London Whale” took a storm-in-a-teacup to a balance-sheet-busting reality for Jamie Dimon and exposed a face-slapping level of regulatory ignorance of how the TBTF banks ‘trade’ and ‘lever’ their balance sheets, the Federal Reserve’s Inspector General has issued their findings…

 

Bear in mind, as @ctorresreporter notes, the Fed’s OIG report is a 4-page summary and The Senate released a 300-page report last year… Choose Your Watchdog!!

 

The Board Should Enhance Its Supervisory Processes as a Result of Lessons Learned From the Federal Reserve’s Supervision of JPMorgan Chase & Company’s Chief Investment Office

In May 2012, media outlets reported that JPMorgan Chase & Company’s (JPMC) Chief Investment Office (CIO) incurred approximately $2 billion in losses due to a complex trading strategy involving credit derivatives. Losses continued over the following months and surpassed $6 billion by the end of 2012. This matter highlighted corporate governance, risk management, and internal control weaknesses at JPMC, which resulted in reputational damage to the institution and considerable congressional, regulatory, and public scrutiny.

 

In July 2012, we initiated this evaluation (1) to assess the effectiveness of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s (Board) and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRB New York) consolidated and other supervisory activities regarding JPMC’s CIO and (2) to identify lessons learned for enhancing future supervisory activities.

 

Findings…

Our report contains four findings.

First, as part of its continuous monitoring activities at JPMC, FRB New York effectively identified risks related to the CIO’s trading activities and planned two examinations of the CIO, including (1) a discovery review of the CIO’s proprietary trading activities in 2008 and (2) a target examination of the CIO’s governance framework, risk appetite, and risk management practices in 2010. Additionally, a Federal Reserve System team conducting a horizontal examination at JPMC recommended a full-scope examination of the CIO in 2009. However, FRB New York did not discuss the risks that resulted in the planned or recommended activities with the OCC in accordance with the expectations outlined in SR Letter 08-9. As a result, there was a missed opportunity for the consolidated supervisor and the primary supervisor to discuss


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How General Dynamics Just Got A $600 Million Check From Uncle Sam, Courtesy Of ISIS

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Sometimes, in the fog of whatever is the Mideast war du jour started initially under a “humanitarian intervention” pretext then quickly morphing into yet another counter-Syria campaign to appease various Saudi and Qatari emirs and princes, it is easy to lose sight over just what the purpose of said war is. Luckily, we have the US military industrial complex to remind us, and specifically weapons and ammunition specialists like General Dynamics. So here, for those confused, is a summary of the the first half of the great circle, which uses war, mass killings and civilian casualties, as a cover to deploy what else: US taxpayer money into the pocket of US corporations. Lots of it.

As Reuters reports, the U.S. government on Monday said it had approved the sale to Iraq of $600 million in tank ammunition manufactured by General Dynamics Corp saying it would help the Iraqi government establish an integrated ground defense capability.

In short: the Obama administration is about to give its latest puppet government in Iraq some $600 million in US taxpayer funds so said government can further arm itself in its war with a terrorist group that until recently was also being funded, trained and equipped by the US government. The beneficiary: a US company which some say is at the forefront of the US military industrial complex.

With that out of the way, here’s more.

The Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency, or DSCA, notified lawmakers that the State Department had approved the sale of 10,000 M831 120m, high-explosive anti-tank munitions, 10,000 M865 120mm kinetic energy warheads and 26,000 other munitions, as well as logistics services.

 

DSCA said the prime contractor would be General Dynamics, maker of the M1A1 Abrams tank and the requested munitions.

 

The U.S. military has been conducting air strikes against Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria, and is seeking to strengthen the Iraqi government so it can resist the extremists more effectively.

Reuters also adds that Congress now has 30 days to block the sale, “although such action is rare since arms deals are usually vetted carefully before a congressional notification.”

Actually, the reason there is rarely if every blocking of such indirect subsidies to the US Military Industrial…
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Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tim Knight from Slope of Hope.

From Slope of Hope: After reading the “0.1% Problems” post on ZeroHedge (which was about a snippet from a local paper about a fellow complaining that billionaires can get whatever they want, whereas ‘average millionaires’ in Palo Alto cannot), I thought I’d share a property listing with you good people in case you want to join me here in my fair city (my house, mercifully, I bought into back in 1991 when prices were merely above-average, and not insane).

May I present to you 258 Middlefield Road, Palo Alto, California, which is located within walking distance from my house and is a mere $1,800,000 (well, that’s the asking price, but it’ll probably go for more). The property features ample storage in the back……..

1021-homeshed

A spacious kitchen to prepare everything from snacks-on-the-go to sumptuous Thanksgiving feasts……..

1021-homecluttertwo

A family room where you may gather with loved ones to share stories from the day, catch up on a good book, or sing around the piano………

1021-homeclutter

A bedroom where you may relax or – heck, it’s Palo Alto! – start the next Google!

1021-homecolor

Or relax in the well-appointed bathroom featuring running water (and, once the hot water heater has been installed and tested, your choice or either hot or cold)…….

1021-homebathroom

It should be noted that the foundation isn’t absolutely perfect and may require some attention; (please note that a Home Depot is just across the freeway, in colorful East Palo Alto, for all your home improvement requirements….)

1021-homefoundation

Thanks to rock-bottom interest rates, if you’ve got a little over a third of a million dollars saved up for the down payment, and a $300,000 income, you should be good-to-go:

1021-homeafford

I mentioned the storage, right?

 1021-home2 1021-home1

Incidentally, I didn’t do a Google Image search for “hovel” and come up with a fake post. The above pictures are, honest to God, from the real estate listing.

And, in a rare moment of Realtor honesty, I close with this:

1021-homehabitable





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Land Of The Free? 1 In 3 Americans Are On File With The FBI In The US Police State

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mike Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

The sickening transformation of these United States into an authoritarian police state with an incarceration rate that would make Joseph Stalin blush, has been a key theme of my writing since well before the launch of Liberty Blitzkrieg. One of the posts that shocked and disturbed readers most, was published a little over a year ago titled: American Police Make an Arrest Every 2 Seconds in 2012. In the event you never read it, I suggest taking a look before tackling the rest of this piece.

Fast forward to fall 2014, and the Wall Street Journal has a powerful article about how children in schools systems across the U.S. are being arrested or turned over to police custody for doing things that children have always done since the beginning of time. Things such as wearing too much perfume, sharing a classmates’ chicken nuggets, throwing an eraser or chewing gum.

As a result of our insane societal obsession with authority and disproportionate punishment, the WSJ reports that “nearly one out of every three American adults are on file in the FBI’s master criminal database.” 

USA! USA!

From the Wall Street Journal:

A generation ago, schoolchildren caught fighting in the corridors, sassing a teacher or skipping class might have ended up in detention. Today, there’s a good chance they will end up in police custody.

 

In Texas, a student got a misdemeanor ticket for wearing too much perfume. In Wisconsin, a teen was charged with theft after sharing the chicken nuggets from a classmate’s meal—the classmate was on lunch assistance and sharing it meant the teen had violated the law, authorities said. In Florida, a student conducted a science experiment before the authorization of her teacher; when it went awry she received a felony weapons charge.

 

Over the past 20 years, prompted by changing police tactics and a zero-tolerance attitude toward small crimes, authorities have made more than a quarter of a billion arrests, the Federal Bureau of Investigation estimates. Nearly one out of every three American adults are on file in the FBI’s master criminal database.

Did you catch that too? “Zero-tolerance attitude toward small crimes.” Indeed, the big criminals go to Wall Street, crash the


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S&P 500 Snapshot: Biggest Gain in More Than a Year

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Europe was in rally mode when the US markets opened, and the EURO STOXX 50 would subsequently close with a 2.19% gain. The S&P 500 opened at its intraday low, up 0.28%, and headed higher through the day to its 2.02% high in the final hour. Its closing gain of 1.96% was its best one-day performance since its 2.18% surge on October 10th of last year. The popular financial press attibutes today’s gain to speculation more ECB stimulus and the strong Apple-earnings effect.

The yield on the 10-year Note closed at 2.23%, up 3 bps from yesterday’s close.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions.

Here is a daily chart of the index. In yesterday’s update I pointed out the proximity of the close to the 200-day price moving average. It certainly offered no resistance today, and volume was 23% above its 50-day moving average.

A Perspective on Drawdowns

How close were we to an “official” correction, generally defined as a 10% drawdown from a high (based on daily closes)? The chart below incorporates a percent-off-high calculation to illustrate the drawdowns greater than 5% since the trough in 2009.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

Click to View
Click for a larger image





VIX Has Never Done This Before… Ever

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Never, in the history of VIX – the so-called 'fear-index' – has this ever happened before…

The last 3 days have seen VIX drop 12.74%, 15.55%, and 13.4% today… VIX has NEVER dropped more than 10% for 3 days in a row ever

h/t @RyanDetrick

 

And here is VIX today – does that look in any way normal or efficient to you!!??

 

*  *  *

And then there's this from last week - As Nanex shows, S&P 500 e-mini futures liquidity dropped to the lowest ever…

 

Connected? Who knows…





Obama Humiliated Again After Weapons Airdropped For Syrian Rebels End Up In ISIS Hands

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While we strongly suspect few are truly surprised by this turn of events, it is still yet another embarrassing stamp in the “do nothing stupid” foreign policy passport for President Obama’s administration. As The Daily Beast reports, an ISIS-associated YouTube account posted a new video online Tuesday entitled, “Weapons and munitions dropped by American planes and landed in the areas controlled by the Islamic State in Kobani.”

While the authenticity of this latest video could not be independently confirmed, there is no doubt that the ISIS fighters in the clip are in possession of a rich bounty of American hand grenades, rounds for small rockets, and other supplies. The White House stated on CNN, “we feel very confident that, when we air drop support as we did into Kobani… we’ve been able to hit the target in terms of reaching the people we want to reach.” Perhaps not all of them…

Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kriby confirms the latest embarrassment for the administration:

  • KIRBY SAYS WEAPONS IN VIDEO ARE OF TYPE THAT U.S. DROPPED
  • KIRBY SAYS KOBANI REMAINS A `MIXED, CONTESTED ENVIRONMENT’





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Zero Hedge

Chicago Hospitals Monitoring 2 Sick Passengers From Liberia, CDC Not Testing For Ebola

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Just when you thought it was safe to BTF-Ebola-Is-Fixed-Dip... ABC7 Chicago reports, two unrelated passengers (one child - vomiting, no fever; one adult - nausea, diarrhea, no fever) originating from Liberia became ill en route to O'Hare International Airport. The two patients are being monitored in isolation at The University of Chicago Medical Center and Rush University Medical Center but based on the latest reports and risk exposures (from the Chicago Ebola Resource Network), the CDC has determined not to test them for Ebola...



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Phil's Favorites

Poster Children

Poster Children

Courtesy of 

IBM, Coca-Cola and McDonalds are three of America’s largest corporations and most well-known brands. They are true multinationals in every sense of the word and they dominate their industries both at home and abroad. They are numbers 23, 58 and 106 on the Fortune 500 list, respectively. Together, they make up 12 percent of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s total weighting.

And all three are plagued by the same problem – they’re shrinking. More than this, their shrinkage is finally being recognized on The Street, now that investors are peeling back all of the layers of buybac...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Biggest Gain in More Than a Year

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Europe was in rally mode when the US markets opened, and the EURO STOXX 50 would subsequently close with a 2.19% gain. The S&P 500 opened at its intraday low, up 0.28%, and headed higher through the day to its 2.02% high in the final hour. Its closing gain of 1.96% was its best one-day performance since its 2.18% surge on October 10th of last year. The popular financial press attibutes today's gain to speculation more ECB stimulus and the strong Apple-earnings effect.

The yield on the 10-year Note closed at 2.23%, up 3 bps from yesterday's close.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions.

Here is a daily chart of the index. In yesterday's update I pointed out the proximity of the close to the 200-day price moving average. It certainly offered no resistance today, and volume was 23% above its 50...



more from Chart School

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Sharp selloff in stocks sets up long-awaiting buying opportunity

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last week brought even more stock market weakness and volatility as the selloff became self-perpetuating, with nobody mid-day on Wednesday wanting to be the last guy left holding equities. Hedge funds and other weak holders exacerbated the situation. But the extreme volatility and panic selling finally led some bulls (along with many corporate insiders) to summon a little backbone and buy into weakness, and the market finished the week on a high note, with continued momentum likely into the first part of this week.

Despite concerns about global economic growth and a persistent lack of inflation, especially given all the global quantitative easing, fundamentals for U.S. stocks still look good, and I believe this overdue correction ultimately will shape up to be a great buying opportunity -- i.e., th...



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Digital Currencies

Goodbye War On Drugs, Hello Libertarian Utopia. Dominic Frisby's Bitcoin: The Future of Money?

Courtesy of John Rubino.

Now that bitcoin has subsided from speculative bubble to functioning currency (see the price chart below), it’s safe for non-speculators to explore the whole “cryptocurrency” thing. So…is bitcoin or one of its growing list of competitors a useful addition to the average person’s array of bank accounts and credit cards — or is it a replacement for most of those things? And how does one make this transition?

With his usual excellent timing, London-based financial writer/actor/stand-up comic Dominic Frisby has just released Bitcoin: The Future of Money? in which he explains all this in terms most readers will have no tr...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of October 20th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Market Shadows

Falling Energy Prices: Sober Look takes a Sober Look

Falling Energy Prices: Sober Look takes a Sober Look

What do falling energy prices mean for the US consumer? Sober Look writes a brief yet thorough overview of the consequences of the correction in the price of crude oil. There are good aspects, particularly for the consumer, bad aspects, and out-right ugly possibilities. For more on this subject, read James Hamilton's How will Saudi Arabia respond to lower oil prices?  In previous eras, Saudi Arabia would tighten the supply to help increase prices, but in this "game of chicken," the rules m...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly. Just sign in with your PSW user name and password. (Or take a free trial.)

#457319216 / gettyimages.com

 

...

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Option Review

Release Of Fed Minutes, Icahn Tweet Boost Shares In Apple

Shares in Apple (Ticker: AAPL) are near their highs of the session in the final hour of trading on Wednesday, adding to the muted gains seen earlier in the day, following the release of the September FOMC meeting minutes and after activist investor and Apple shareholder Carl Icahn tweeted, “Tmrw we’ll be sending an open letter to @tim_cook. Believe it will be interesting.” Icahn’s tweet hit the ether at 2:33 pm ET and was met with a spike in volume in Apple shares. The stock is currently up 2.0% on the day at $100.75 as of 3:15 pm ET.

Chart – Apple rally accelerate...



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Promotions

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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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