Archive for the ‘Immediately available to public’ Category

Ray Dalio’s Shorting The Entire EU

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth.


Salvator Rosa Heroic battle 1652

A point BOE Governor Mark Carney made recently may be the biggest cog in the European Union’s wheel (or is it second biggest? Read on). That is, derivatives clearing. It’s one of the few areas where Brussels stands to lose much more than London, but it’s a big one. And Carney puts a giant question mark behind the EU’s preparedness.

Carney Reveals Europe’s Potential Achilles Heel in Brexit Talks

Carney explained why Europe’s financial sector is more at risk than the UK from a “hard” or “no-deal” Brexit. [..] When asked does the European Council “get it” in terms of potential shocks to financial stability, Carney diplomatically commented that “a learning process is underway.” Having sounded alarm bells about clearing in his last Mansion House speech, he noted “These costs of fragmenting clearing, particularly clearing of interest rate swaps, would be born principally by the European real economy and they are considerable.”

Calling into question the continuity of tens of thousands of derivative contracts , he stated that it was “pretty clear they will no longer be valid”, that this “could only be solved by both sides” and has been “underappreciated” by Europe . Carney had a snipe at Europe for its lack of preparation “We are prepared as we should be for the possibility of a hard exit without any transition…there has been much less of that done in the European Union.”

In Carneys view “It’s in the interest of the EU 27 to have a transition agreement. Also, in my judgement given the scale of the issues as they affect the EU 27, that there will ultimately be a transition agreement. There is a very limited amount of time between now and the end of March 2019 to transition large, complex institutions and activities…

If one thinks about the implementation of Basel III, we are alone in the current members of the EU in having extensive experience of managing the transition for individual firms of various derivative and risk activities from one jurisdiction back into the UK. That tends to take 2-4 years. Depending on the agreement, we are talking about a substantial amount of activity.” [..] “I wouldn’t want to use financial stability issues as leverage. I wouldn’t


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Is a Breakout Brewing for the VanEck Steel ETF (SLX)?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

In the past few week’s we’ve highlighted some assets and indicators that point to a stable/improving economy: Copper prices, firmer interest rates, etc. Time to add one more to the list: rising steel prices.

Today we’ll look at a chart of the VanEck Vectors Steel ETF (NYSEARCA:SLX).

Looking at the chart below, investors can see that the Steel ETF (SLX) remains inside its rising trend channel. As long as this remains the case, it’s bullish. But there’s more.  A big test is looming for steel bulls. SLX is now testing this year’s price highs (see points 1 & 2 on the chart).  This “breakout test” is particularly important because it comes as steel prices (SLX) are straddling the lower side of the rising trend channel.

Implications: A steel ETF breakout here would be huge for steel bulls and keep the bullish trend channel intact.  For that to happen, the bulls want to see a price breakout above the prior highs on a closing basis (and preferably on strong volume).  Note that a breakout here would target $50 next (the 2013 & 2014 highs).

On the flip side, a price reversal here would signal caution… especially if the rising trend line is broken to the downside and steel prices (SLX) fall out of the rising trend channel.

This post was originally written for See It Markets. To see rest of the article and SLX breakout test chart CLICK HERE

Why do you see very few comments?  Because the Power of the Pattern provides all you need to see what is taking place in an asset and determine the action to take

Receive my free research posted on the blog daily here 

Better yet, send an email if you would like to see sample research and take me up on a trial of my premium or weekly research where I provide actionable alerts on breakouts and reversals in broad market indices, sectors, commodities, the miners and select individual stocks 

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US-German Bond Spread Surges To Highest Since 1999

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The spread between German and US sovereign bond yields is the widest since the start of the EU in 1999…

But EURUSD appears to have decoupled (just as it did in 2009 and 2013)…

So which market is 'wrong' – Bonds signaling EURUSD below par… or FX markets signaling a Bund crash is imminent?





Did Syria Just Strike An Israeli F-35 Jet

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With the assistance of South Front

It looks that the Israeli “demonstration of power” during the recent visit of Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu may have turned into a total failure. On October 16, Shoigu arrived in Israel for meetings with Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The two were reportedly set to discuss the situation in the region, including Syria, the fight against terrorism, as well as military and technical cooperation.

On the same day, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) claimed that its warplanes targeted an anti-aircraft battery of the Syrian Air Defense Forces that had launched a missile at Israeli aircraft flying over Lebanon.

Earlier today,an anti-aircraft missile was launched from Syria towards IDF aircraft during a routine flight over Lebanon. No hits confirmed

— IDF (@IDFSpokesperson) October 16, 2017

“The army targeted the battery with four bombs and, according to the IDF, the battery was damaged to the extent it was no longer operational. The army said the battery targeted was the same that fired at Israeli jets last March, prompting Israel make use of its Arrow anti-missile system for the first time,” the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported.

The Syrian military confirmed the Israeli strikes and said that they caused “material damage.” But it’s interesting to note that, according to the Syrian Defense Ministry statement, Israeli warplanes violated Syria’s airspace on the border with Lebanon in Baalbek area. The incident took place at 8:51 am local time.

Did the Israeli Air Force intentionally provoke the reaction from the Syrian military in order to justify the strike on the Syrian air defense battery? It wouldn't be the first time.

Furthermore, some pro-Israeli experts and media activists clearly linked the incident with the visit of the Russian defense minister to Tel Aviv saying that it was a nice demonstration of power to the Russian-Iranian-Syrian alliance.

However, something went wrong. According to the available information, the Syrian Defense Forces used its S-200 missile against the Israeli warplane. This Soviet-made missile is the most advanced long range anti-aircraft system operated by the Syrian military. But even in this case, it’s old-fashioned in terms of modern warfare and advances in


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Housing Starts, Permits Collapse In September (Spoiler Alert: It Wasn’t Just The Storms)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following last month's bounce in permits (later revised lower), September expectations were for a decline of 2.1% (presumably analysts knew of the storms' potential impact when they guessed) but it utterly collapsed – down 4.5%. Worse still Housing Starts were supposed to drop just 0.4% in September but crashed 4.7%.

These are 2 to 3 standard deviation misses of expectations… so don't simply blame the storms as analysts were well aware that they occurred when they made their forecasts…

Notably, muiltifamily starts tumbled to 286K, lowest since Sept 2016…

And it was clearly not just the hurricanes – starts dropped in every region except The West:

  • Northeast: -9.2%
  • Midwest: -20.2%
  • South -9.3%
  • West: +15.7%

Some context…

But buy homebuilders…





Wonderful Wednesday – Dow 23,000 or Bust!

a chart of corporate guidance announcements over the past yearDoes anything matter?  

On the right is the Daily Guidance Oscillator, which shows how forward guidance is fading fast, unraveling the enthusiasm of August with only 28% of companies reporting issuing positive guidance and a whopping 39.4% going negative and the chart you see is the net trend difference between postive and negative guidance

The trend was this bad in July and the markets took a very small dip (2.5%) and in March it was worse and we dipped about 5% but we're up 10% from the March lows now and up 15% for the year so we'll stay on our toes and keep an eye on this indicator as more earnings reports come in.  80 of the S&P 500 report next week and another 240 next week so it's definitely crunch time.  

Another indicator we're watching closely is the Advance/Decline lines as we're seeing the game we discussed yesterday playing out where major index weights, like Apple (AAPL) are being used to prop up the indexes while the Fund Managers and Banksters sell off the bulk of their holdings.  The reason they do this is because holding up the index keeps the ETF money flowing in (from 401Ks, IRAs, etc.), which creates plenty of buyers for their small positions while they spend their money accumulating stocks they don't mind holding through a correction – like AAPL.

Notice that the number of stocks that were being sold and the volume of selling far outweighed the buying yesterday and also notice the most of our market gains come in the early morning Futures – where trading is very thin.  That's another Fund Manager trick – jack up the futures and the retail suckers rush in to chase the move while you sell off your holdings into higher volume.  

Jim Cramer had a nice video explaining how fund managers manipulate the market, noting it doesn't take much money to manipulate the markets using the Futures noting "It's a fun game, and it's a lucrative game" and "I would encourage anyone who is in the hedge fund game to do it because it's legal and a quick way to make money – and very satisfying." 


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Senate Launches Probe Into Russian Nuclear Bribery Case That Netted Clintons Millions

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As the media continues to lose their collective minds over $100,000 worth of Facebook ads allegedly purchased by Russians during the 2016 election, the Senate Judiciary Committee has finally decided they're going to take a look into a shady Russian deal that handed Putin 20% of America's uranium reserves, was approved by the Obama administration during an ongoing FBI investigation into charges of bribery, extortion and money laundering by the Russian buyer and netted the Clintons millions of dollars in donations and 'speaking fees."  Here's more from The Hill:

The Senate Judiciary Committee has launched a full-scale probe into a Russian nuclear bribery case, demanding several federal agencies disclose whether they knew the FBI had uncovered the corruption before the Obama administration in 2010 approved a controversial uranium deal with Moscow.

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), the committee chairman, gets his first chance to raise the issue in public on Wednesday when he questions Attorney General Jeff Sessions during an oversight hearing.

Though the hearing was scheduled for other purposes, aides said they expected Grassley to ask Sessions questions about a story published in The Hill on Tuesday that disclosed the FBI had uncovered evidence showing Russian nuclear officials were engaged in a racketeering scheme involving bribes, kickbacks and money laundering designed to expand Russian President Vladimir Putin's atomic energy business on U.S. soil.

"It has recently come to the Committee’s attention that employees of Rosatom were involved in a criminal enterprise involving a conspiracy to commit extortion and money laundering during the time of the CFIUS transaction," Grassley wrote in one such letter addressed to Sessions.

"The fact that Rosatom subsidiaries in the United States were under criminal investigation as a result of a U.S. intelligence operation apparently around the time CFIUS approved the Uranium One/Rosatom transaction raises questions about whether that information factored into CFIUS’ decision to approve the transaction," the chairman added.

Putin Hillar

As we pointed out last summer when Peter Schweizer first released his feature documentary Clinton Cash, the Uranium One deal, as approved by the Obama Administration, netted the Clintons and their Clinton Foundation nearly $150 million in donations and 'speaking fees' from


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Dow Futures Over 23,000: Dollar, Global Stocks Jump As China Congress Begins

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

World stocks stayed near peaks and currencies moved in tight ranges on Wednesday as China’s 19th Communist Party Congress opened while focus in Europe turned to speeches from top euro zone central bankers before next week’s key policy meeting, as well as Catalonia's ultimatum due on Thursday. S&P futures are solidly in the green as usual, with Dow futures jumping above 23,000, driven higher by IBM as investors looked for new reasons to extend gains after hitting new all-time highs Tuesday. The dollar continues to strengthen, buoyed by speculation that the next Federal Reserve chair will be more hawkish, as volatility in major currencies fell to a three-month low, while Treasury yields rose. 

Among the factors contributing to today's burst of risk on buying is the continued bid in USD, which has forced markets into hybrid risk-on mode according to Bloomberg. EUR/USD and GBP/USD push through yesterday’s session lows, which consequently supports domestic equity markets via exporters and multinationals. Rally in USD/JPY pressures USTs, dragging down core fixed-income markets; UST/bund spread wider by 1.6bps. U.S. equity futures also supported, Dow futures test 23,000; crude futures hold small gains after bullish API data.

European stocks are on fire, with the Stoxx 600 heading for its biggest rise in 2 weeks as the euro weakened for a fifth day on speculation the ECB will remain accommodative even as it tapers asset purchases, while volatility slid; the Stoxx 600 gained 0.4% while euro falls back to $1.1750 and VStoxx hits intraday record low. Technology, food and beverage best performers among industry groups, all 19 sectors in green; DAX hit another record high. The European vol index, the VStoxx dropped as much as 8% to 10.7, the lowest level on record. bond yields fell ahead of a series of speeches from top European Central Bank officials before next key policy meeting on Oct. 26.

Looking at European stocks, BNP Paribas Wealth Management CIO Florent Brones said that “there are many positive elements supporting the euro-area stock market at this point, and while the market has been rallying, we’re not yet seeing double-digit gains.”

European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi, Chief Economist Peter Praet and Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure are among those officials scheduled to


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Advice For Aspiring Traders

 

Advice For Aspiring Traders

Courtesy of 

A frequent question asked of podcast guests is, “What do you know now that you wish you knew twenty years ago?” Twenty years ago I was twelve, but five years ago I was buying stocks that were going down and shorting stocks that were going up. I wish I knew how foolish this was.

I loathe talking to non-market people about investing because I don’t know anything about their favorite stock, and the “what do you think about the markets” is a question for which I lack a satisfying answer. The silver lining to these conversations is that I make it really awkward so they usually don’t happen twice.

I should clarify the previous statement. I dislike talking to people who have been investing for a few decades and still haven’t figured out that “experts” don’t know where the market is going. Talking with kids who want to learn about finance and trading on the other hand is something I quite enjoy.

I recently had this sort of talk with a college student who opened up a Robinhood account and wanted some advice. I found myself talking in circles, basically saying the same thing over and over, if you want to buy something that’s going to go up, buy something that’s already doing that! (H/t Jon Boorman)

When you open your first brokerage account, at least this was my experience, you try to find bargains. I attempted to buy low and sell high, which even if you know nothing about investing, you’ve heard this phrase before. But this is probably the worst advice you can give to an aspiring trader, because beginners can’t separate cheap from garbage, and they lack the patience necessary for something to turn around (which it usually doesn’t).

Buy what’s already rising is good advice, but like everything else, it’s easy to say and hard to implement. As an example, let’s look at one of the most beautiful trends in the world right now, semi-conductors.

One of the easiest ways to determine a security’s primary trend is to look at a moving average. For SMH, the


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A Look At Short Interest In Transenterix’s Stock

Courtesy of Benzinga.

A Look At Short Interest In Transenterix's Stock

Transenterix Inc (NYSE: TRXC) stock has exploded higher on incredible volume over the past two days after the company gained FDA clearance for its Senhance surgical robot. The clearance is certainly good fundamental news for the company, but the stock’s meteoric 200 percent two-day gain suggest a short squeeze may also be in play.

Following the FDA clearance, at least one company insider has taken advantage of warrants that automatically expired on Tuesday night. Director Andrea Biffi purchased 250,000 shares of Transenterix at the $1 per share exercise price.

With all the positive momentum for the stock, it’s understandable why short sellers could be throwing in the towel on Transenterix trade.

Short Interest

According to Yahoo Finance, there are relatively few Transenterix short sellers out there. There are only about 6.9 million shares held short, which represents a relatively modest short percent of float of 8.0 percent. However, with such a small float of only 106.4 million shares, a rush to cover could have a major impact on a stock like Transenterix. With such a small float and low share price, it can also be difficult for new short sellers to balance out a big positive move if shares become difficult or impossible to borrow.

On Wednesday around 10:20 a.m. ET, Dow Jones reported there was a short sale restriction on Transenterix. Benzinga was unable to confirm what exactly this would indicate.

Technical traders are looking to the stock’s chart to try to determine where it could be headed next. The stock bounced in the low $2 range on Monday and has remained above its Oct. 2016 high water mark of $2.33 ever since. The $5.00 psychological resistance level has been the near-term ceiling for the stock so far.

Traders should watch closely in coming days to see if Transenterix narrows its trading range or beaks out either above $5.00 or below $2.30.

Related Link: Is Transenterix Really A Threat To Intuitive Surgical?

Posted-In: SenhanceLong Ideas Short Ideas Movers Trading Ideas Best of Benzinga





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Why Richard Thaler won the 2017 economics Nobel Prize

 

Why Richard Thaler won the 2017 economics Nobel Prize

Courtesy of Sergey V. Popov, Cardiff University

The 49th Sveriges Riksbank prize in economic sciences – commonly referred to as the Nobel Prize for economics – has been awarded to Richard H Thaler for his contributions to behavioural economics. He was a key proponent of the idea that humans do not act entirely rationally. By applying insights from psychological research, he helped the world better understand people’s economic decision-making in particular.

Thaler published extensively in the field of finance. He pinpointed the difference between the predictions in financial literature, which assume that people act p...



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Zero Hedge

Bitcoin Tumbles Most In A Month On CFTC ICO Anxiety, South Korea Tax Concerns

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After soaring to new record highs near $6000 last week (as China returned to work following its Golden Week holiday), the start of the National Congress last night, combined with CFTC comments on ICO crackdowns has spooked cryptocurrencies with Bitcoin down 8% - its biggest drop in a month..

Crytpos are down across the board...

With Bitcon back to a $5100 handle...

...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles Most In A Month On CFTC ICO Anxiety, South Korea Tax Concerns

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After soaring to new record highs near $6000 last week (as China returned to work following its Golden Week holiday), the start of the National Congress last night, combined with CFTC comments on ICO crackdowns has spooked cryptocurrencies with Bitcoin down 8% - its biggest drop in a month..

Crytpos are down across the board...

With Bitcon back to a $5100 handle...

...

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ValueWalk

Possible Female Shooter Seen Around University Of Missouri

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The latest

The potential female shooter who was being sought around the university of Missouri campus has been located. No one was injured in the incident. Police located her about 35 minutes after the “active threat” alert was sent out by the university. She was safe, and there is no longer a threat.

Initial report

Police around the University of Missouri are searching for a potential female shooter around the campus. At this point though, there are no reports of anyone being shot. Officials at the University of Missouri say the woman may be suicidal and carrying a handgun, so they are advising students to “take appropriate actions.”

...

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Chart School

Guest Post by Paul Koger: 7 Ways Emotion Screws Up Your Trading (& How To Fix It)

Courtesy of Declan.

Going Tilt in trading is a killer which is why I trade a small account and buy-and-hold with the money I need for the future.  This infographic by Paul Koger illustrates how emotion influences your trading and ways of mitigating its pitfalls. 
For more from Paul visit Foxytrades.com

...

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Insider Scoop

Fortinet's Underappreciated Growth Story

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related FTNT Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For October 18, 2017 Watch These 8 Huge Call Purchases In Thursday Trade ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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Biotech

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Courtesy of Sally Ferguson, CQUniversity Australia

Today, the “beautiful mechanism” of the body clock, and the group of cells in our brain where it all happens, have shot to prominence. The 2017 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Jeffrey C. Hall, Michael Rosbash and Michael W. Young for their work on describing the molecular cogs and wheels inside our biological clock.

In the 18th century an astronomer by the name of Jean Jacques d'Ortuous de Ma...



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Members' Corner

Day of Last Dances

News today has been relentlessly terrible. A horrific mass murder happened last night in Las Vegas. (Our politician's abject failure to address gun control is beyond sickening.) And today, reports that Tom Petty died of a heart attack, followed by reports that Tom Petty is not dead, and now reports confirming that Tom Petty has passed away. 

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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