Archive for the ‘Topic’ Category

Ben Carlson on Market Breadth

 

Ben Carlson on Market Breadth (Video)

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker

Ben had a hit on Bloomberg TV last night talking about his recent piece on market breadth and why it’s perfectly normal to see the market being led higher by some very big winning stocks. His research shows that this is always the case during bull markets and that broader measures of the internals are healthy, not sick.

Check this out:

…and you can read his expanded thoughts on the topic here:

A Few Big Stocks Don’t Tell the Whole Market Story (Bloomberg View) 





Why Montana just elected Greg Gianforte, a man charged with assault, to Congress

 

Why Montana just elected Greg Gianforte, a man charged with assault, to Congress

Courtesy of Lee Banville, The University of Montana

Until just about 24 hours before the polls closed, the race for Montana’s sole congressional seat seemed to be focused on health care, Donald Trump and gun rights. Republican businessman Greg Gianforte appeared to be headed for a likely victory in the race against another political newcomer, musician and Democrat Rob Quist. The Conversation

Then came Wednesday night.

As most people seem to now know, Gianforte lashed out at Ben Jacobs of the Guardian when the reporter pressed him for his stand on the House Republican health care proposal. Jacobs’ phone was recording audio that has since ricocheted around the internet.


Within 24 hours nearly one million people had watched the YouTube video posted of the audio – a total about equal to the entire population of Montana.

The result was a firestorm of media coverage and social media bile. And yet Thursday night Montana elected the millionaire software entrepreneur and the nation was left to ask: Why?

Well, as a former political reporter and someone who wrote an encyclopedia about the media and politics (and, yes, I didn’t know people did that, either), I will try to explain what happened under the Big Sky.

Voting early often

Key to the Gianforte win is one simple fact: The incident came after some 250,000 Montanans had already cast ballots in the race. That means 69 percent of voters ended up casting their ballots before the assault. In fact, Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock had pressed for the entire vote to be done by mail, in an effort to reduce costs and potentially increase voter turnout.

Republicans, led by the state party chairman and legislator Jeff Essmann, fought the measure and in the end, the state opened polling places on Thursday. This created the opportunity for voters to weigh in on Gianforte’s behavior.

One of the big questions was: Had too many people already cast their ballots? Unlike some states, Montana does not allow people to change their minds or retract their votes after they are…
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Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast

Courtesy of Mish.

Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.

GDPNow Latest forecast: 3.7 percent — May 26, 2017

GDPNow 2nd Quarter Evolution

Nowcast Latest forecast: 2.2 percent — May 26, 2017

Nowcast Highlights

  • The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 2017:Q2.
  • News from this week’s data releases reduced the nowcast for 2017:Q2 by 0.1 percentage point as the positive impact from wholesale inventories data was more than offset by the negative impact from the advance durable goods report and new home sales data.

Mish Estimate?

I have no estimate yet, other than to suggest GDPNow is way too high and Nowcast is likely high as well.


Continue reading here…





Making America Meaner

 

Making America Meaner

Courtesy of Robert Reich

On the eve of his election to the House of Representatives, Montana Republican Greg Gianforte beat up Ben Jacobs, a reporter for the “Guardian" newspaper.

What prompted the violence? Jacobs had asked Gianforte for his reaction to the Congressional Budget Office’s report showing that the House Republican substitute for the Affordable Care Act would result in 23 million Americans losing their health insurance.

Then, in the words of a Fox News team who witnessed the brutal attack: “Gianforte grabbed Jacobs by the neck with both hands and slammed him into the ground behind him. … Gianforte then began punching the reporter. As Gianforte moved on top of Jacobs, he began yelling something to the effect of, ‘I’m sick and tired of this!’ Jacobs scrambled to his knees and said something about his glasses being broken…. To be clear, at no point did any of us who witnessed this assault see Jacobs show any form of physical aggression toward Gianforte, who left the area after giving statements to local sheriff’s deputies.”

After the attack, Jacobs was evaluated in an ambulance at the scene and taken to Bozeman Health Deaconess Hospital. Several hours later he left the hospital wearing a sling around his arm.

Gianforte was charged with misdemeanor assault.

Donald Trump’s reaction? In Sicily for the G-7 summit, he praised Greg Gianforte’s election as a “great win in Montana.”

For years, conservatives warned that liberals were “defining deviancy downward” by tolerating bad social behavior.

Donald Trump is actively defining deviancy downward in American politics. He’s making America meaner.  

Last year, Trump said of a protester at one of his campaign rallies: “I’d like to punch him in the face.” 

In a different era, when decency was the norm, House members would not seat a thug like Gianforte in the chamber. In the age of Trump, it’s okay to beat up a reporter.

Charlie Sykes, a conservative former talk-show host in Wisconsin, says “every time something like Montana happens, Republicans adjust their standards and put an emphasis on team loyalty. They normalize and accept previously unacceptable behavior.”

Gianforte’s attack on Jacobs was shameful enough. Almost…
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What witch-hunters can teach us about today’s world

 

What witch-hunters can teach us about today's world

Courtesy of David FrankfurterBoston University

File 20170516 11929 vpwk9z

How do leaders find authority as discerners of evil? Wellcome Library, London., CC BY

It is hardly a new observation that political leaders seeking populist appeal will exacerbate popular fears: about immigrants, terrorists and the other. The Conversation

President Donald Trump plays to fears of immigrants and Muslims. Benjamin Netanyahu inflames Israeli fears by constantly reminding citizens about the threats around them. And many African leaders bring up fears of satanism and witchcraft. In earlier times, too, American and European leaders invoked threats of communists and Jews.

Such observations explain how leaders use fear to create popular anxiety. But this focus on fear and evil forces, I believe, does something else as well – it could actually contribute to a leader’s charisma. He or she becomes the one person who knows the extent of a threat and also how to address it.

This path to leadership takes place in much smaller-scale situations too, as I have studied in my own work.

In my book “Evil Incarnate,” I analyze this relationship between claims to discern evil and charismatic authority across history, from European and African witch-finders to modern experts in so-called satanic ritual abuse.

How charisma works

In popular parlance one calls a person charismatic because he or she seems to possess some inner force to which people are drawn.

Social scientists have long perceived this ostensible inner force as the product of social interaction: Charisma, in this interpretation, arises in the interplay between leaders and their audiences. The audiences present their own enthusiasms, needs and fears to the leader. The leader, for his part, mirrors these feelings through his talents in gesture, rhetoric, his conviction in his own abilities and his particular messages about danger and hope.

Witch doctors in Africa resting between dances. Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division Washington, D.C. 20540


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Bitcoin Is Crashing (Again)

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While Bitcoin is still up 13% on the week (its 8th weekly ruse of the last 9), the dollar price of the virtual currency is collapsing again in US trading (after a big rebound during the Asian session)…

Just as with yesterday, there is no immediate news catalyst for the flush.

Meanwhile, the huge arb with South Korea bitcoin pricing remains, and as of this moment is still nearly $1000.

Today's drop is the biggest since January (for now)…





Big Financial Stocks Face Their 50-Day’s

 

Big Financial Stocks Face Their 50-Day’s

Courtesy of Joshua Brown

Lots of big financial stocks have run back up into their declining or flat-lining 50-day moving averages into the end of this week. If we’re truly headed higher in the overall US stock market, tech could use some help from the banks and brokers. Hard to persist in the narrative that only a handful of tech giants are driving the SPX if the banks get back on the horse.

I pulled a few of these from ycharts.com that I thought were worth watching, relative strength in the bottom pane…

?

Source:

ycharts.com





Understanding net neutrality: Seven essential reads

 

Understanding net neutrality: Seven essential reads

Courtesy of Jeff InglisThe Conversation

Image 20170124 16094 16yxnfh

Via shutterstock.com

Editor’s note: The following is a roundup of archival stories. The Conversation

Ajit Pai. Federal Communications Commission

With the selection of Ajit Pai to chair the Federal Communications Commission, President Trump has elevated a major foe of net neutrality from the minority on the commission to its head. Pai, already a commissioner and therefore needing no Senate approval to become its chair, would need to be reconfirmed by the end of 2017 to continue to serve.

But what is net neutrality, this policy Pai has spent years criticizing? Here are some highlights of The Conversation’s coverage of the controversy around the concept of keeping the internet open:

Public interest versus private profit

The basic conflict is a result of the history of the internet, and the telecommunications industry more generally, writes internet law scholar Allen Hammond at Santa Clara University:

Like the telephone, broadcast and cable predecessors from which they evolved, the wire and mobile broadband networks that carry internet traffic travel over public property. The spectrum and land over which these broadband networks travel are known as rights of way. Congress allowed each network technology to be privately owned. However, the explicit arrangement has been that private owner access to the publicly owned spectrum and rights of way necessary to exploit the technology is exchanged for public access and speech rights.

The government is trying to balance competing interests in how the benefits of those network services. Should people have unfiltered access to any and all data services, or should some internet providers be allowed to charge a premium to let companies reach audiences more widely and more quickly?

Pushing back against corporate control

There is fairly limited competition, it turns out. Across America, most people have very little – if any – choice in who their internet provider is. Communication studies…
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Brazil plunges once more into political crisis, jeopardizing economic recovery

 

Brazil plunges once more into political crisis, jeopardizing economic recovery

Courtesy of Terry L. McCoyUniversity of Florida

File 20170525 23251 14sbefp

Demonstrations demanding Temer’s removal from office have been growing. AP Photo/Eraldo Peres

Brazil’s massive corruption scandal – which has brought down dozens of politicians and business leaders – has ensnared its latest victim: President Michel Temer, who got the job after his predecessor was impeached. The Conversation

Allegations that Temer approved a bribe to a corporate executive triggered demands that he resign or be impeached as well. He has refused, even as protests have escalated and turned violent.

The ensuing crisis threatens to derail a fragile economic recovery and the reforms Brazil needs to get back on its feet.

But once again, a political scandal at the very top is getting in the way. The irony is that Temer’s alleged misdeeds threaten to undermine the economic upturn his own government launched.

Temer continues to profess his innocence and resist demands that he go. AP Photo/Ricardo Botelho

Temer takes charge

Believe it or not, Temer only just completed his first year in office.

Previously Dilma Rousseff’s vice president, he assumed her duties as the interim head of state in May 2016 after she was suspended and faced an impeachment trial in the Senate. He officially became president in August, when she was convicted and removed from office – though she was never directly linked to the the bribery and kickback scandal engulfing Brazil.

While the corruption scandal swirled around his government, Temer had never before been personally implicated. This changed on May 17, when a Brazilian newspaper reported on a secretly recorded conversation in which the president is heard encouraging the CEO of JBS – the world’s biggest meat producer – to provide hush money to a former lawmaker who’s currently in jail. Temer promised in return to help resolve a problem JBS had in Congress.

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April Durable Goods: Yet Another Weak Second-Quarter Report

Courtesy of Mish.

The string of bad economic reports at the start of the second quarter continues with today’s durable goods report.

Durable goods in April fell 0.7% vs an Econoday consensus estimate of -1.0%, but the good news (if you call that good news), stops there.

Highlights

Yet another piece of the second-quarter puzzle is not favorable. Durable goods orders, down 0.7 percent in April, do not confirm the month’s big jump in industrial production nor all the strength in the regional factory reports. Aircraft is not a factor in today’s report as the ex-transportation reading is also negative, at minus 0.4 percent which is well below Econoday’s low estimate. Also below the estimate are orders for core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) which came in unchanged following a downward revised unchanged reading in March.

Manufacturing output soared in the industrial production report but shipments in this report fell 0.3 percent and follow March’s 0.1 percent decline. Shipments of core capital goods, which are an important input into second-quarter GDP, also fell 0.1 percent. And the weakness in capital goods orders does not point to shipment strength in June or July.

Inventories edged only 0.1 percent higher but, given the decline in shipments, the inventory-to-shipments ratio moved one notch higher to a less lean 1.69. A plus in the report is unfilled orders which, after long contraction, have put together two straight positive months, at 0.2 and 0.3 percent.

Regional Manufacturing Strength?

Econoday cited strength in the regional factory reports. What strength is that?

Durable Goods New Orders and Shipments

Despite the upward revision in new orders to 2.3% March, this was a weak report. Excluding transportation, new orders in March were up a more modest 0.8%. Excluding transportation, new orders in April fell 0.4%.

Shipments, which feed into second-quarter GDP were negative.

Core capital goods (non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft) were very weak. Core capital goods are a measure of manufacturers’ willingness to expand.


Continue reading here…





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Bitcoin 'Crashes' To 1-Week Lows - The Difference Between Fear And Concern

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin dropped over $900 from its record high at $2760 on Thursday in the last 48 hours, but has bounced back to remain up 17% week-over-week.

A 30% drop from Thursday's highs...

But Bitcoin is still up around 140% year-to-date...

While the volatility is unprecedented, ...



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ValueWalk

Pakistan Is The Key To Better Iran And Saudi Arabia Relations

By Polina Tikhonova. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Pakistani Chief of Army Staff is reportedly making an urgent trip to Iran as tensions are rising. After Iran fired five mortar shells into Pakistan last Sunday in response to Islamabad’s participation in a summit led by U.S. President Donald Trump and hosted by Iran’s rival Saudi Arabia, cracks in their decades-long friendship deepened.

Photo by Uzairmaqbool (Pixabay)

Pakistani Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa is ...



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Phil's Favorites

Ben Carlson on Market Breadth

 

Ben Carlson on Market Breadth (Video)

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker

Ben had a hit on Bloomberg TV last night talking about his recent piece on market breadth and why it’s perfectly normal to see the market being led higher by some very big winning stocks. His research shows that this is always the case during bull markets and that broader measures of the internals are healthy, not sick.

Check this out:

…and you can read his expanded thoughts on ...



more from Ilene

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Is Crashing (Again)

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While Bitcoin is still up 13% on the week (its 8th weekly ruse of the last 9), the dollar price of the virtual currency is collapsing again in US trading (after a big rebound during the Asian session)...

Just as with yesterday, there is no immediate news catalyst for the flush.

Meanwhile, the huge arb with South Korea bitcoin pricing remains, and as of this moment is still nearly $1000.

Today's drop ...



more from Bitcoin

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. stocks scale new peaks on retailer results; oil falls (Reuters)

Two top U.S. equity indexes scaled record peaks on Thursday after strong earnings reports from retailers, outpacing European shares which were little changed, while oil prices plunged after top crude producers extended output cuts for a shorter period than expected.

Hedge Funds Squeezed by World's Highest Rents Are Moving Out (Bloomberg)

Benjamin Fuchs raised eyebrows five years ago when he opened his hedge fund next to a place selling live chickens in Hong Kong’s hustling, bustl...



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Chart School

S&P Breakout on Higher Volume Accumulation

Courtesy of Declan.

While I expected the Dow Jones to be the breakout flyer, instead it was the S&P which led the charge on higher volume accumulation.  Technicals are all in the green with a return of the MACD trigger 'buy'.



The Dow did manage to break past 21,000 with a MACD trigger 'buy' but it's still contained by all-time high resistance at 21,200. The index is still well positioned for a larger breakout, but this is the sixth day of consecutive gains for the index so some pullback can be expe...

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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 22nd, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

Precision editing DNA allows for some amazing applications. Ian Haydon, CC BY-ND

There’s a revolution happening in biology, and its name is CRISPR.

CRISPR (pronounced “crisper”) is a powerful technique for editing DNA. It has received an enormous amount of attention in the scientific and popular press, largely based on the promise of what this powerful gene e...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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