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Geopolitics and Markets

Outside the Box: Geopolitics and Markets

Courtesy of John Mauldin

Growing geopolitical risk is on everyone’s mind right now, but in today’s Outside the Box, Michael Cembalest of J.P. Morgan Asset Management leads off with a helpful reminder: the only time since WWII that a violent conflict has had a medium-term negative effect on markets was in 1973, when the Israeli-Arab war led to a Saudi oil embargo against the US and a quadrupling of oil prices. And he backs up that assertion with an interesting table of facts labeled “War zone countries as a percentage of total world… [population, oil production, GDP, etc.].”

Having gotten that worry out of the way, he takes on the dire warnings that have recently been issued by the BIS, the IMF, and even the Fed, about a disconnect between market enthusiasm and the undertow of global economic developments. (He gives this section the cute title “Prophet warnings.”) Let’s look, he says, at actual measures of profits and how markets are valuing them; and then he goes on to give us a “glass half-full” take on prospects for the US economy for the remainder of the year. He throws in some caveats and cautions, but Cembalest thinks we could finally see another 3% growth quarter this year, which could create room for further profit increases.

There are good sections here on Europe and emerging markets here, too. Cembalest gives us a true Outside the Box, with a more optimistic view than some of our other recent guests have had. But that’s the point of OTB, is it not, to think about what might be on the other side of the walls of the box we find ourselves in? I have shared his work before and find it well thought out. He is one of the true bright lights in the major investment bank research world. That’s my take, at least.

I write this introduction from the air in “flyover country,” heading back home from rural Minnesota. I flew to Minneapolis to look at a private company that is actually well down the road to creating hearts and livers and kidneys and skin and other parts of the body that can be grown and then put into place. It

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Obama Shenanigans on ‘Factoryless’ Exports, Taxes, Employment, Jobs

Courtesy of Mish.

Corporate Deserters

President Obama was beating the drums on Thursday in Los Angeles regarding corporate tax deserters, companies that move headquarters or tax shields to another country in order to escape high US tax rates.

The LA Times provides the details in President Obama Hits ‘Corporate Deserters’ in Populist L.A. Speech.

Tearing into companies he dubbed “corporate deserters,” President Obama on Thursday launched an election-year push to make it harder for U.S. companies to avoid paying taxes.

Under a bright sun at a trade and technical college in Los Angeles, Obama issued a damning assessment of a “small but growing” group of companies taking advantage of a “loophole” in corporate tax law by reorganizing overseas, often in low-tax countries.

Obama accused the companies of “renouncing their U.S. citizenship” and “fleeing the country” while sticking U.S. taxpayers “with the tab.”

“You shouldn’t get to call yourself an American company only when you want a handout from the American taxpayer,” Obama told a crowd gathered at the Los Angeles Trade-Technical College. The speech capped a three-day West Coast trip primarily focused on raising money for Democrats ahead of the midterm elections.

Obama’s target on Thursday was so-called inversion transactions, a practice that allows U.S. companies to reincorporate overseas, either through a merger or purchase of a foreign entity, and thus avoid paying U.S. taxes on its foreign earnings.

Who Cares About Legalities?

The president acknowledged the practice is legal, but added “my attitude is, ‘I don’t care if it’s legal — it’s wrong.’”

Well, who gives a damn about legalities anymore? Certainly not president Obama, as he has proven many times over.

Besides, as we all learned from President Nixon “When the president does it, it’s not illegal”.

No president has been a finer student of Nixon philosophy than Obama….

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Trulia Up 30%; Zillow Rumored Near Making $2 Billion Bid

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related Z
Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Thursday July 24, 2014
Markets Steady Despite Mixed Economic Data

Trulia (NYSE: TRLA) shares jumped more than 30 percent Thursday on a rumor that it may be acquired by Zillow (NASDAQ: Z).

Zillow could pay $2 billion for Trulia's 36.92 shares outstanding, and an agreement may be unveiled next week, according to Bloomberg news service, which cited unnamed sources.

Zillow's market capitalization is about $5 billion,compared with Trulia's $1.5 billion.

Together the companies account for a reported 89 percent of all traffic to real estate sites.

Caledonia Investments is the largest single shareholder of both Zillow and Trulia. It has 8.5 million of Trulia's 36.92 million shares outstanding and 6.18 million of Zillow's 33.56 million shares outstanding.

Trulia traded recently at $54.06, up 32 percent; Zillow was up more than 15 percent at $146.56.

Posted-In: News Rumors M&A Hot Movers

U.S. Markets Trade Flat; Liberty Media Shares Surge On Senior Note Conversation Rate Change

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Markets Mostly Flat; Ford Posts Upbeat Profit

Entering into the last 60 minutes of trading on Thursday, the Dow traded down 0.05 percent to 17,078.62 while the NASDAQ traded flat, up 0.03 percent to 4,472.28.  The S&P rose, gaining 0.03 percent to 1,987.69.

Leading and Lagging Sectors

Financial sector was the top gainer in today’s trading. Meanwhile, top gainers in the sector included CoStar Group (NASDAQ: CSGP), up 11.5 percent, and Intermountain Community Bancorp (NASDAQ: IMCB), up 10.36 percent.

In trading on Thursday, healthcare shares were relative leaders, up on the day by about 0.16 percent. Top decliners in the sector included Clearfield (NASDAQ: CLFD), down 15.30 percent, and Invacare (NYSE: IVC), off 16.77 percent.

Top Headline

Ford Motor Co (NYSE: F) reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings.

The Dearborn, Michigan-based company posted a quarterly profit of $1.31 billion, or $0.32 per share, versus a year-ago profit of $1.23 billion, or $0.30 per share. Its earnings after tax, excluding special items, came in at $0.40 per share.

Its revenue fell to $37.4 billion from $37.9 billion. However, analysts were expecting earnings of $0.36 per share on revenue of $36.16 billion.

Equities Trading UP

Logitech International SA (NASDAQ: LOGI) shares shot up 15.08 percent to $15.34 after the company reported better-than-expected quarterly results and raised its operating income forecast.

Shares of Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) got a boost, shooting up 5.34 percent to $75.10 after the company reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter results on strong growth in daily users and advertising revenue.

VASCO Data Security International (NASDAQ: VDSI) shares were also up, gaining 16.12 percent to $13.47 after the company reported upbeat quarterly results and issued a strong FY14 revenue forecast.

Equities Trading DOWN

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Warren Resources Enters Marcellus with Citrus Asset Buy – Analyst Blog

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Independent energy company, Warren Resources, Inc. (NASDAQ: WRES) announced that it has acquired certain assets in Pennsylvania’s Marcellus Shale from Colorado-based oil and natural gas producer, Citrus Energy Corporation and two other parties that owned working interest in the region. The transaction, which marks Warren Resources’ entry into the prolific natural gas basin, was for a purchase price of $352.5 million.

Following this announcement, shares of Warren Resources gained around 2.6% to close at $6.30. Shares also touched an intraday high of $6.70 that marked a new 52-week high for the stock.

The company mentioned that it will issue $40 million in shares at $6.00 per share as part of the transaction cost. The remaining consideration will be funded through debt financing. In view of this deal, Warren Resources’ senior secured credit facility has been increased to $750 million from $300 million and its borrowing base expanded to $225 million from $175 million. The transaction has an effective date of Jul 1 and is anticipated to close in early August.

The company added that the acquisition adds lucrative assets to its existing portfolio. The sold properties yielded about 82 million net cubic feet of natural gas per day last month. As of Jul 1, the estimated proved reserves totaled about 208.3 billion cubic feet, of which 55% is anticipated to be proved developed reserve.

Warren Resources will be the operator of the assets. The acquired properties are expected to complement the company’s existing California oil and Wyoming natural gas assets. The said properties are expected to be highly accretive and are anticipated to increase the company’s net production by over 200% to 118 million cubic feet equivalent per day (Mmcfe/d) from the existing level of 36 Mmcfe/d. The deal would also increase the company’s proved reserves to around 410.8 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe) from the current level of 202.5 Bcfe.
The company stated that the acquisition has brought to its portfolio some of the top performing wells in the Marcellus region that generate significant cash, which should be enough to finance future drilling prospects in the area.

Warren Resources currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Meanwhile, one can consider some…
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YTD Biggest Buyback Companies Trailing S&P In Stock Appreciation

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Stock buybacks are running at a near record pace in the year to date, but contrary to expectations, those with the highest buy-back ratios have trailed the S&P 500 index.

The S&P 500 Buyback Index, which tracks the 100 companies with the highest buy-back ratios, is up 7.6 percent so far this year, compared with 8.7 percent for the S&P 500.

Morningstar's Josh Peters said companies are currently engaging buybacks at the fastest rate of the current expansion. In fact, at $159 billion in the first quarter, the pace just a whisker below the fastest in history, $172 billion recorded in 2007.

“That record just happens to coincide with the all-time peak in the stock market prior to the crash," Peters told the Morningstar site. Peters said there is insufficient evidence to call a market peak.

But when companies are flush with more cash than they know what to do with, stock prices tend to be high. When the stock is cheap, companies tend not to be generating cash.

"It's an automatic problem built into the buyback issue," Peters said.

Leading up to the 2008 crash, big banks massively repurchased shares, and then subsequently reissued them at a fraction of the price to shore up balance sheets and resulting in significant dilution for shareholders, Peters said.

"I'd much prefer a special dividend if companies have excess cash," Peters said.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) on Monday said its board an additional $5 billion in stock buybacks. Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) on Thursday said it will buy back $2.5 billion worth of shares in the current quarter; Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM) said this week it will buy back $1 billion worth of shares in the current quarter.

American Airlines (NYSE: AAL) announced a $1 billion buy back Thursday; United Continental Holdings (NYSE: UAL) unveiled a $1 billion, three-year plan also Thursday.

Posted-In: Josh Peters morningstarAnalyst Color News Buybacks Analyst Ratings

UPDATE: Starwood Hotels Posts Higher Q2 Profit, Lifts Full-Year Forecast

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Starwood Hotels Resorts Worldwide (NYSE: HOT) reported a 12% rise in its second-quarter earnings and lifted its full-year forecast.

Starwood now expects full-year earnings of $2.78 to $2.85 per share.

The Stamford, Connecticut-based company posted quarterly earnings of $153 million, or $0.80 per share, compared to $137 million, or $0.71 per share, in the year-earlier quarter. Excluding items, its earnings from continuing operations declined to $0.77 per share from $0.79 per share. In April, Starwood expected earnings of $0.72 to $0.76 per share.

Its revenue dropped 1.5% to $1.54 billion from $1.56 billion. However, analysts were expecting earnings of $0.75 per share on revenue of $1.54 billion.

Starwood’s worldwide systemwide REVPAR for same-store hotels increased 5.3% in constant dollars, while management fees, franchise fees and other income climbed 10% to $260 million.

Its revenue from vacation ownership dropped 28%, while revenue from owned, leased and consolidated joint venture hotels shrank 1.2%. Starwood’s other revenue from managed and franchised properties climbed 3.9%.

Starwood signed 45 hotel management and franchise contracts and opened 19 hotels and resorts with around 3,800 rooms in the quarter.

For the current quarter, the company projects earnings of $0.62 to $0.65 per share, versus analysts’ estimates of $0.67 per share.

Frits van Paasschen, CEO, said, “We exceeded our expectations for both adjusted EBITDA and EPS in the second quarter. Rising REVPAR drove strong growth in our management and franchise fees. This continued growth in our fee business, along with the trends we are seeing across our hotels and vacation ownership, points to a global recovery that is steadily moving into its fifth year. “

Starwood shares gained 0.01% to close at $83.74 yesterday.

Posted-In: profitEarnings News Guidance

Stocks To Watch For July 25, 2014

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

Wall Street expects Xerox (NYSE: XRX) to report its Q2 earnings at $0.26 per share on revenue of $5.31 billion. Xerox shares fell 0.16% to $12.82 in after-hours trading. (NASDAQ: AMZN) reported a wider-than-expected loss for the second quarter. For the third quarter, Amazon projected sales of $19.7 billion to $21.5 billion. shares tumbled 10.62% to $320.52 in the after-hours trading session.

Analysts are expecting American Electric Power Co (NYSE: AEP) to have earned $0.75 per share on revenue of $3.97 billion in the second quarter. American Electric Power shares rose 0.11% to $54.07 in after-hours trading.

Visa (NYSE: V) reported an 11% rise in its fiscal third-quarter profit and lowered its revenue outlook for the year. Visa shares dipped 3.03% to $216.00 in the after-hours trading session.

Analysts expect Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE: SWK) to report its Q2 earnings at $1.37 per share on revenue of $2.94 billion. Stanley Black & Decker shares declined 0.02% to $85.00 in after-hours trading.

Pandora Media (NYSE: P) announced slower than expected growth metrics. Pandora’s earnings beat the official analyst estimate by $0.01 per share at $0.04 per share. The company also raised its full-year forecast. Pandora shares slipped 10.52% to $25.70 in the after-hours trading session.

Posted-In: Stocks To WatchEarnings News Guidance Pre-Market Outlook Markets Trading Ideas

Bed Bath & Beyond Announces Plan To Buy Back $2 Billion Worth Of Shares

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Before the market opened Monday morning, Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY) announced that its board of directors has authorized a $2 billion share repurchase plan.

Following the announcement, shares of the company shot up to $60.50 before returning to levels about even with Thursday's close.

The company expects the plan to commence after the current buyback plan is completed, which had ~$861 million remaining as of May 31, 2014.

"Our Board authorized this new share repurchase program based upon its continued confidence in our Company's long-term growth potential, financial outlook and cash flow generation," said Steven Temares, Chief Executive Officer and member of the board of directors.

Posted-In: News Buybacks Press Releases

Monster Beverage Statement On Jason Hamric Suit

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Monster Beverage Corporation (NASDAQ: MNST) (“Monster”) issued the following statement in response to media and other inquiries relating to the pending lawsuit against it by Angela Wheat, guardian of Jason Hamric:

“There is no credible evidence that Jason consumed a Monster Energy Drink the day of the incident. The evidence in this case shows the only person that saw him with a drink that day was Bill Ledbetter, a pastor at the Fairview Baptist Church. When deposed and interviewed, Pastor Ledbetter stated that Jason was holding a ‘silver can’. In 2011 when this incident occurred, Monster had no product that was even close to being described, as in a silver can. We are truly sorry about Jason’s injury, but we are confident that once all the evidence is heard, it will be shown that Monster had no responsibility in this case.

“The sale and consumption of 12 billion Monster energy drinks worldwide over more than 12 years has shown that our products are safe. Contrary to allegations, they are not ‘highly caffeinated’ and they are not marketed to children. In fact, a 16-ounce Monster Energy drink contains less than half the caffeine than a 16-oz (Tall) cup of Starbucks brewed coffee. Monster’s labels state: ‘Not recommended for children, people sensitive to caffeine, pregnant women or women who are nursing.’”

Posted-In: News Legal Press Releases


Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is."

Thank you for you time!


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Geopolitics and Markets

Outside the Box: Geopolitics and Markets Courtesy of John Mauldin

Growing geopolitical risk is on everyone’s mind right now, but in today’s Outside the Box, Michael Cembalest of J.P. Morgan Asset Management leads off with a helpful reminder: the only time since WWII that a violent conflict has had a medium-term negative effect on markets was in 1973, when the Israeli-Arab war led to a Saudi oil embargo against the US and a quadrupling of oil prices. And he backs up that assertion with an interesting table of facts labeled “War zone countries as a percentage of total world… [population, oil production, GDP, etc.].”

Having gotten that worry out of the way, he takes on the dire wa...

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Zero Hedge

UKRaiNe UPDaTe: MeeT THe Nu PM...

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.


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Chart School

Durable Goods Report: June Rebound Beat

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The July Advance Report on June Durable Goods was released this morning by the Census Bureau. Here is the Bureau's summary on new orders:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $1.8 billion or 0.7 percent to $239.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 1.0 percent May decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.7 percent.

Machinery, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $0.9 billion or 2.4 percent to $37.3 billion. Download full PDF

The latest new orders number came in at 0.7 percent month-over-month, above the ...

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Insider Scoop

DigiTimes Reports Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Affiliate Receives Apple iWatch Orders

Courtesy of Benzinga.

An affiliated company of Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (NYSE: ASX), Universal Scientific Industrial, has reportedly received SiP module orders from Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) for the iWatch according to industry sources, as reported by DigiTimes. Each SiP module costs approximately $60, which is 20% of the iWatch's rumored $300 price tag.

View full article

Posted-In: Digitimes... more from Insider

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Option Review

Starbucks Options Volume Rises Ahead Of Earnings After The Bell

Volume in Starbucks options is running approximately three times the average daily level for the stock as of 1:15 p.m. ET ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings report after the close. Shares in the name are up roughly 1.0% just before midday to stand at $79.95. Traders of SBUX options today are more active in calls than puts, with the call/put ratio hovering near 2.0 as of the time of this writing. Much of the volume is in 25Jul’14 expiry options contracts, most notably in the $80 and $83 strike calls which have traded roughly 3,350 and 2,550 times respectively and in excess of existing open interest levels in both strikes. A portion of the volume in the $80 and $83 calls appears to be part of a spread trade.


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Sector Detector: Bulls remain unfazed by borderline Black Swans

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic. But last Thursday’s news of the Malaysian airliner tragically getting shot down over Ukraine, coupled with Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, had the makings of a potential Black Swan event, which in my view is the only thing that could derail the relentless bull march higher in stocks.

Nevertheless, when it became clear that the airline...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of July 21st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Please use your PSW user name and password to log in. (You may take a free trial here.)

#452331232 / ...

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Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows


We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Vs Gold - The Infographic

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Marc Faber has said "I will never sell my gold," he also noted "I like the idea of Bitcoin," and the battle between the 'alternative currencies' continues. The following infographic provides a succinct illustration of the similarities and differences between gold and bitcoin.

Please include attribution to with this graphic.


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Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...

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See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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