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The End Of QE3, Trouble Ahead For The Bulls?

Courtesy of Michael Pollaro via Acting-Man

QE3 Is Coming to an End

The Federal Reserve’s latest asset purchase program, QE3, is coming to an end.  What was once an $85 billion a month program, one in which at its peak had been goosing the financial markets and economy at an annual rate of $1.0 trillion – and over its 27 month life will have pumped $1.7 trillion of money into the economy – is going to zero. Given the outsized impact QE has had on the growth of U.S. money supply and thus the economy, investors take note, especially if you're far out on the risk curve: What was once your primary tailwind could soon become your greatest headwind.

Here’s why…

Recapping the tenets we presented herehere, and here, once an economy is subjected to a bout of monetary inflation, whether that be via direct central bank money creation or via money (and credit) creation by the fractional reserve banking system, an unsustainable, artificial economic boom is born, whereby malinvestments (bubbles) are created that sooner or later must be liquidated. And whether that bust takes the form of a hyperinflationary bust or a deflationary bust, a bust we will get.

The form the bust takes will depend on the course of the inflation. If the central bank/banking system pursues an inflationary course, by throwing continual and importantly ever larger doses of money (and credit) into the economy, the bust will take the form of a hyperinflationary bust – a collapse in the value of the currency and with that a breakdown of the entire economy. If instead the central bank/banking system ends its money creation activities or even moderates that increase in a material way, the bust will take the form of a deflationary bust – a healthy liquidation of the malinvestments made during the boom and with that a commensurate fall in the prices of those same malinvestments.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) in a nutshell.

Thus, when an economy is subjected to a bout of monetary inflation, investors can enhance their performance by correctly positioning their portfolios on the right side of the boom-bust cycle.  Though easier said than done, one should buy claims to the malinvestments of the boom; i.e., when the money supply is surging; then sell those same claims after the growth in the money supply peaks and begins to…
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NYPD Stunner: Cops Exit Ebola Victim Apartment, Dump Gloves, Masks In Sidewalk Trash Can

Unfortunately, many people have a cavalier attitude about infections and how to protect themselves and others, possibilty because it has been a long time, if ever, since the majority of us have been truly frightened about catching a disease. We have not seen corpses piled up in the streets due to deadly viruses; most of us have not seen pathogens kill our loved ones way too early. 

But experience, especially painful experience, is a great educator. Without that, we need a more comprehensive plan. Cops tossing their protective gear into an open trash cannister is an example of education failure.  Another example of failure can be seen in the movement to stop vaccinating our children. ~ Ilene 

NYPD Stunner: Cops Exit Ebola Victim Apartment, Dump Gloves, Masks In Sidewalk Trash Can

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

If there was one theme from last night's Cuomo/De Blasio Ebola press conference it was 'how everyone has been preparing for months' for Ebola. We can all be reassured, right? Wrong! As The Daily Mail reports (and these stunning photos show), the police officers involved in securing Dr. Spencer tossed their gloves, masks and the caution tape used to block off access to his apartment in a public trash can.

 

 

Not just any trash can, but one on a public street corner…

 

While it is unclear whether the police entered the apartment (which is now locked down and isolated), some are suggesting that for the sake of safety – not to mention public sanity – it would have made sense to discard of these masks and gloves and tape in a biohazard bag.

*  *  *

Seems like not everyone has been preparing for months (since August) for Ebola… no matter, we are all assured by Cuomo's reassuring words that Ebola is very hard to catch (just don't tell the hundreds of healthcare workers who have been infected despit all their precautions).





Deutsche Bank Raises Price Target On Diamond Offshore

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DO
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On Friday, analysts at Deutsche Bank maintained the Sell rating on shares of Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc (NYSE: DO) and raised the price target from $22 to $31.

Diamond Offshore announced third quarter 2013 financial results on Thursday, reporting EPS of $0.58, missing estimates by 26 percent.

Following the results, Deutsche Bank analysts feel "there is not enough to get us excited."

Mike Urban stated, "Cash flow is set to decline as midwater rigs roll-off contracts into a market that has little demand for them and the newbuild program is not nearly large enough to offset the lost earnings."

Moreover, Urban declares that "DO’s strong balance sheet puts the company in an attractive position to build/ acquire assets but with negative structural free cash flow that liquidity is increasingly likely to be used for (ultimately unsustainable) dividends."

Shares of Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc recently traded at $39.70, up 0.25 percent.

Latest Ratings for DO

Date Firm Action From To
Oct 2014 Nordea Upgrades Strong Sell Sell
Oct 2014 Deutsche Bank Maintains Sell
Oct 2014 FBR Capital Maintains Market Perform

View More Analyst Ratings for DO
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Deutsche Bank Mike UrbanAnalyst Color Price Target Analyst Ratings





Brent Set To Post First Weekly Gain In Over A Month

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BNO
Brent Lower On Rising Inventories
Brent Prices May Be On The Rebound

Brent crude oil looked set to post its first weekly gain in over a month after reports that Saudi Arabian output was depressed boosted prices.

However, the commodity was under some pressure and traded at $86.33 when Ebola fears resurfaced in the US after another healthcare worker tested positive. 

Doctor Craig Spencer was diagnosed with Ebola on Thursday after working with infected patients in West Africa through the Doctors Without Borders organization.

Spencer’s diagnosis reignited worries about the spread of the disease, especially as Spencer was living in heavily populated New York City. Though the 33 year old doctor had been bowling, on the subway and in a taxi, health officials say the risk of spread was minimal as he was not showing any symptoms until Thursday morning when he was taken from his home into quarantine. 

Meanwhile, investors have been keeping a close eye on OPEC members ahead of the group’s November 27 meeting and looking for any clues about whether or not they will cut down on supply in order to raise prices.

Related Link: New International IPO And Eurozone ETFs

For the moment, the cartel looks unlikely to cut back as several members have expressed their desire to regain market share by accepting the current price levels for an extended period.

Brent saw a boost after Reuters reported that OPEC member Saudi Arabia’s crude output fell significantly from August to September.

The nation supplied only 9.36 million barrels per day to the market in September, 328,000 barrels per day less than it contributed in August. The news helped counterbalance worries about a growing supply glut and buoyed Brent prices.

Posted-In: Craig Spencer OPECNews Commodities Forex Global Pre-Market Outlook Markets Best of Benzinga





Deutsche Bank Adjusts Estimates For Foot Locker For Delayed Lebron Launch

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related FL
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Jon Najarian's Foot Locker, Inc. Trade
Finish Line 1Q Profit Doubles to Top Views (Fox Business)

In a report published Friday, Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Trussell reiterated a Buy rating and $59.00 price target on Foot Locker, Inc. (NYSE: FL).

In the report, Deutsche Bank noted, “Earlier this month, NKE (Weiner, Buy) stated that due to a ‘small cosmetic issue’ the release of the Lebron 12 sneaker will be delayed indefinitely. Our channel contacts suggest that the release may be rescheduled for December, although no official date has been announced. We believe the surprising delay (some shipments had already reached stores for its U.S. 10/11/14 debut) is having a modestly negative impact to sales at FL this month. We have tweaked our estimates for SSS and EPS to reflect lost sales and a minor impact from FX. We remain confident of robust sneaker sales near-term, beginning with a plethora of high-priced releases this weekend.”

Foot Locker, Inc. closed on Thursday at $55.14.

Latest Ratings for FL

Date Firm Action From To
Sep 2014 Bank of America Downgrades Buy Neutral
Sep 2014 JP Morgan Maintains Overweight
Sep 2014 Jefferies Initiates Coverage on Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for FL
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Deutsche Bank Paul TrussellAnalyst Color Reiteration Analyst Ratings





UPDATE: Brean Capital Reiterates On ARRIS Group On 3Q14 Preview

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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UPDATE: Brean Capital Reiterates On ARRIS Group On Continued Favorable Outlook

In a report published Friday, Brean Capital analyst Todd Mitchell reiterated a Buy rating on ARRIS Group (NASDAQ: ARRS), but lowered the price target from $40.00 to $36.00.

In the report, Brean Capital noted, “We believe Arris is well positioned in key product categories where growth will outstrip overall capital expenditures, and we note that the company has a significantly lower market share outside of the U.S., two factors that we believe point to a multi-year path of sustainable growth. However, Arris is its own worst enemy. Management will only provide one quarter forward guidance, and the market has not acclimated itself to the fact that, post-Motorola, the company is far more diversified than it used to be. Therefore, the stock tends to trade like a semiconductor company when in fact Arris’ business should be far more stable. This is evident in the recent sell-off following cautionary comments from management about 4Q14 during its 2Q14 earnings call. We think the source of these comments could have mitigated and that when Arris gives its official 4Q14 guidance buy-side investors could be pleasantly surprised. However, sell-side estimates for 4Q14 remain stubbornly high, we suspect well above buy-side expectations, creating a conundrum that inhibits multiple expansion. As a result, we are lowering our target price to $36 from $40, but we reiterate our Buy rating.”

ARRIS Group closed on Thursday at $26.87.

Latest Ratings for ARRS

Date Firm Action From To
Oct 2014 Brean Capital Reiterates Buy
Oct 2014 Goldman Sachs Initiates Coverage on Neutral
Aug 2014 Barclays Maintains Equal-weight

View More Analyst Ratings for ARRS
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Brean Capital Todd MitchellAnalyst Color Price Target Analyst Ratings





Earnings Scheduled For October 24, 2014

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BMY
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Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE: BMY) is projected to report its Q3 earnings at $0.42 per share on revenue of $3.80 billion.

Ford Motor Co (NYSE: F) is estimated to report its Q3 earnings at $0.19 per share on revenue of $33.11 billion.

The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) is projected to report its Q1 earnings at $1.07 per share on revenue of $20.83 billion.

Aaron’s (NYSE: AAN) is expected to report its Q3 earnings at $0.37 per share on revenue of $694.64 million.

United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) is projected to report its Q3 earnings at $1.29 per share on revenue of $14.20 billion.

Colgate-Palmolive Co (NYSE: CL) is estimated to report its Q3 earnings at $0.76 per share on revenue of $4.44 billion.

Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE: COG) is projected to report its Q3 earnings at $0.22 per share on revenue of $515.76 million.

Wyndham Worldwide (NYSE: WYN) is estimated to report its Q3 earnings at $1.63 per share on revenue of $1.53 billion.

The Nasdaq OMX Group (NASDAQ: NDAQ) is expected to report its Q3 earnings at $0.70 per share on revenue of $510.60 million.

Avery Dennison (NYSE: AVY) is estimated to report its Q3 earnings at $0.74 per share on revenue of $1.57 billion.

Delphi Automotive PLC (NYSE: DLPH) is projected to report its Q3 earnings at $1.13 per share on revenue of $4.20…
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Must Watch Stocks for Today

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related F
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Amid Higher Pricing, GM Profit Nearly Doubles (Fox Business)

Related AMZN
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Strong 3Q Earnings Boost Investor Confidence (Fox Business)

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

Wall Street expects Ford Motor Co (NYSE: F) to report its Q3 earnings at $0.19 per share on revenue of $33.11 billion. Ford shares rose 0.83% to $14.52 in after-hours trading.

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) reported weaker-than-expected third-quarter results and issued a weak sales forecast for the holiday quarter. Amazon.com shares dipped 10.66% to $279.80 in the after-hours trading session.

Analysts are expecting Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) to have earned $1.07 per share on revenue of $20.83 billion in the first quarter. Procter & Gamble shares rose 0.23% to $83.42 in after-hours trading.

The Nasdaq OMX Group (NASDAQ: NDAQ) is projected to report its Q3 earnings at $0.70 per share on revenue of $510.60 million. Nasdaq OMX shares rose 0.90% to $41.30 in the after-hours trading session.

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) reported stronger-than-expected fiscal first-quarter results. Microsoft shares gained 3.11% to $46.42 in the after-hours trading session.

Analysts expect Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE: BMY) to report its Q3 earnings at $0.42 per share on revenue of $3.80 billion. Bristol-Myers Squibb shares climbed 0.19% to $52.60 in after-hours trading.

Colgate-Palmolive Co (NYSE: CL) is expected to report its Q3 earnings at $0.76 per share on revenue of $4.44 billion. Colgate-Palmolive shares declined 0.23% to $64.90 in the after-hours trading session.

Wall Street expects United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) to report its Q3 earnings at $1.29 per share on revenue of $14.20 billion. UPS shares surged 1.49% to $101.98 in after-hours trading.

Posted-In: Stocks To WatchEarnings News Guidance Pre-Market Outlook Markets Trading Ideas





UPDATE: Morgan Stanley Reiterates On ResMed Following 1Q15 Earnings Report

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related RMD
Morning Market Movers
Qualcomm Announces New Connected Health Collaborations at Connect 2014

In a report published Friday, Morgan Stanley analyst Sean Laaman reiterated an Equal-Weight rating on ResMed (NYSE: RMD), and raised the price target from $46.19 to $49.57.

In the report, Morgan Stanley noted, “Currency headwinds and part quarter release of the S10 downplayed expectations ahead of the result. Despite this, RMD beat on US revenue driven by a rapid ramp in generator sales of ~8% with gross margins in-line. We upgrade our forecasts as S10 upside and accessory flow are yet to fully emanate.”

ResMed closed on Thursday at $49.57.

Latest Ratings for RMD

Date Firm Action From To
Oct 2014 Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-weight
Aug 2014 Jefferies Maintains Hold
Jul 2014 Deutsche Bank Downgrades Buy Hold

View More Analyst Ratings for RMD
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Morgan Stanley Sean LaamanAnalyst Color Price Target Analyst Ratings





Benzinga's Top Initiations

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BABA
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Related MRO
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Analysts at BMO Capital initiated coverage on Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE: BABA) with a Outperform rating. The target price for Alibaba Group Holding is set to $110. Alibaba Group Holding’s shares closed at $94.45 yesterday.

Analysts at Mizuho Securities initiated coverage on Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO) with a Buy rating. The target price for Marathon Oil is set to $40. Marathon Oil’s shares closed at $34.73 yesterday.

Barclays initiated coverage on shares of Mattress Firm Holding (NASDAQ: MFRM) with a Overweight rating. The target price for Mattress Firm Holding is set to $70. Mattress Firm Holding’s shares closed at $62.27 yesterday.

Analysts at JMP Securities initiated coverage on shares of Dynex Capital (NYSE: DX) with a Market Outperform rating. The target price for Dynex Capital is set to $9. Dynex Capital’s shares closed at $8.29 yesterday.

Latest Ratings for BABA

Date Firm Action From To
Oct 2014 BMO Capital Initiates Coverage on Outperform
Oct 2014 Barclays Initiates Coverage on Overweight
Oct 2014 Brean Capital Initiates Coverage on Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for BABA
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Top InitiationsInitiation Analyst Ratings





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Zero Hedge

Fastest Pace Of Withdrawals From JPM's Gold Vault In Over A Year

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While JPM's eligible gold holdings are nowhere near the record lows hit in the summer of 2013, when they dropped to a tiny 46K ounces, sparking concerns of a potential deliverable default, yesterday according to the daily CME gold depository report, JPM saw a whopping 321,500 ounces, or about 10 tons of gold, withdrawn. This was the biggest outflow since the August 5 rebalance when nearly 1.5 million ounces were withdrawn and added, and was the biggest, and is tied with two identical 321,500 oz outflows recorded in early January. As of yesterday, JPM's eligible gold tumbled by 40% in one day, declining to 485.K ounces from over 800K the day before: the lowest eligible gold inventory since almost exactly a ...



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Phil's Favorites

The End Of QE3, Trouble Ahead For The Bulls?

Courtesy of Michael Pollaro via Acting-Man

QE3 Is Coming to an End

The Federal Reserve’s latest asset purchase program, QE3, is coming to an end.  What was once an $85 billion a month program, one in which at its peak had been goosing the financial markets and economy at an annual rate of $1.0 trillion – and over its 27 month life will have pumped $1.7 trillion of money into the economy – is going to zero. Given the outsized impact QE has had on the growth of U.S. money supply and thus the economy, investors take note, especially if you're far out on the risk curve: What was once your primary tailwind could soon become your greatest headwind.

Here’s why…

Recapping t...



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Chart School

ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 131.9, down substantially from the previous week's 131.4. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -0.1, down from 1.0 the previous week and its first negative print since August of 2012.

ECRI has been at the center of a prolonged controversy since publicizing its recession call on September 30, 2011. The company had made the announcement to its private clients on September 21st. ECRI's cofounder and spokesman, Lakshman Achuthan, subsequently forecast that the recession would begin in Q1 2012, or Q2 at the latest. He later identified mid-2012 as the start of the recession. Over the past two years he has been a frequent guest on...



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Insider Scoop

UPDATE: Morgan Stanley Reiterates On ResMed Following 1Q15 Earnings Report

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related RMD Morning Market Movers Qualcomm Announces New Connected Health Collaborations at Connect 2014

In a report published Friday, Morgan Stanley analyst Sean Laaman reiterated an Equal-Weight rating on ResMed (NYSE: RMD), and raised the price target from $46.19 to $49.57.

In the report, Morgan Stanley noted, “Currency headwinds and part quarter release of the S10 downplayed expectations ahead of the result. Despite this, RMD beat on US revenue driv...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Market Shadows

Bill Ackman's Big Pharma Trade Is Making Wall Street A Super Awkward Place

 

#452525522 / gettyimages.com

Intro by Ilene

If you're following Valeant's proposed takeover (or merger) of Allergan and the lawsuit by Allergan against Valeant and notorious hedge fund manager William Ackman, for insider trading this is a must-read article. 

Linette Lopez describes the roles played by key Wall Street hedge fund owners--Jim Chanos, John Paulson, and Mason Morfit, a major shareholder in Valeant. Linette goes through the con...



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Option Review

LUV Options Active Ahead Of Earnings

There is lots of action in Southwest Airlines Co. November expiry call options today ahead of the air carrier’s third-quarter earnings report prior to the opening bell on Thursday. Among the large block trades initiated throughout the trading session, there appears to be at least one options market participant establishing a call spread in far out of the money options. It looks like the trader purchased a 4,000-lot Nov 37/39 call spread at a net premium of $0.40 apiece. The trade makes money if shares in Southwest rally 9.0% over the current price of $34.32 to exceed the effective breakeven point at $37.40, with maximum potential profits of $1.60 per contract available in the event that shares jump more than 13% to $39.00 by expiration. In September, the stock tou...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Sharp selloff in stocks sets up long-awaiting buying opportunity

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last week brought even more stock market weakness and volatility as the selloff became self-perpetuating, with nobody mid-day on Wednesday wanting to be the last guy left holding equities. Hedge funds and other weak holders exacerbated the situation. But the extreme volatility and panic selling finally led some bulls (along with many corporate insiders) to summon a little backbone and buy into weakness, and the market finished the week on a high note, with continued momentum likely into the first part of this week.

Despite concerns about global economic growth and a persistent lack of inflation, especially given all the global quantitative easing, fundamentals for U.S. stocks still look good, and I believe this overdue correction ultimately will shape up to be a great buying opportunity -- i.e., th...



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Digital Currencies

Goodbye War On Drugs, Hello Libertarian Utopia. Dominic Frisby's Bitcoin: The Future of Money?

Courtesy of John Rubino.

Now that bitcoin has subsided from speculative bubble to functioning currency (see the price chart below), it’s safe for non-speculators to explore the whole “cryptocurrency” thing. So…is bitcoin or one of its growing list of competitors a useful addition to the average person’s array of bank accounts and credit cards — or is it a replacement for most of those things? And how does one make this transition?

With his usual excellent timing, London-based financial writer/actor/stand-up comic Dominic Frisby has just released Bitcoin: The Future of Money? in which he explains all this in terms most readers will have no tr...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of October 20th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly. Just sign in with your PSW user name and password. (Or take a free trial.)

#457319216 / gettyimages.com

 

...

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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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