Archive for the ‘Topic’ Category

Does cooperating with ICE harm local police? What the research says

 

Does cooperating with ICE harm local police? What the research says

Courtesy of Patria de Lancer JulnesPennsylvania State University and Jennifer C. GibbsPennsylvania State University

File 20170421 12662 ud95t7

An ICE operation in Los Angeles, Feb. 7, 2017. Charles Reed/U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement via AP

Police need public cooperation. The Conversation

The police rely on the public to report and help solve crimes. This is especially true now that police departments face budget cuts and increasing demands on their time – an environment that pressures police to get things done through innovative partnerships with citizens.

But cooperation and partnerships rely on trust, something that’s in short supply between citizens and police. Public perception of the police and public engagement with immigrant communities are two areas we study, so we were interested in how forceful calls from local politicians and the Trump administration for the police to enforce immigration laws could impact these relationships.

You often hear police – especially in so-called “sanctuary cities” – express a concern that their jobs will become more difficult if they are forced to work with ICE.

How do they know?

Let’s look at the evidence.

Fearing police more than crime

Police-ICE collaboration across a number of states has targeted Latinos, a population already known for distrusting and fearing government.

A 2013 study by Nik Theodore of the University of Illinois at Chicago found that 45 percent of Latinos were unwilling to voluntarily offer information about crimes. Seventy percent of undocumented immigrants are unlikely to contact the police if they are victimized by crime. They feared being asked about their immigration status and possibly deported.

This fear predates the current ICE debate. A study of battered female immigrants in Washington, D.C. in the 1990s found that these women chose to suffer in silence rather than involve police.

Being associated with immigration enforcement could make this problem worse. A survey of Latino residents in California showed positive opinions of the police went down after local officers became more involved in immigration enforcement. Latino residents reported they…
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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. Stocks Add to Rally Ahead of Tax Plan Amid Earnings Pickup (Bloomberg)

U.S. stocks climbed, following a global equity rally on Monday, as investors assessed corporate earnings and awaited a tax plan from the White House scheduled for Wednesday.

Oil prices can tell you a lot about military spending (Business Insider)

Governments generally increase military spending when they are involved in an armed conflict or when they perceive a security threat.

Trump's Tariffs Bring Peso and Loonie Bears Back to Life (Bloomberg)

Concern Donald Trump would move to enact trade barriers with his Nafta counterparts returned to the fore Tuesday after the U.S. slapped tariffs of up to 24 percent on imported softwood lumber from Canada.

Investors Should Avoid Sector ETFs During Strong Earnings Season (Bloomberg)

Looking to capitalize on what’s shaping up to be a strong earnings season? You may want to avoid some of the most popular vehicles in the market: large sector exchange-traded funds.

Basic income just got a standing ovation at TED (Business Insider)

Universal basic income — a system of wealth distribution that involves giving people a monthly wage just for being alive — just got a standing ovation at this year's TED conference.

Oil Bull Andurand Says Rebound in Sight Despite 'Choppy' Market (Bloomberg)

Oil’s jerky path to recovery has been a frustrating, money-losing affair for hedge fund trader Pierre Andurand this year, but he’s sticking to his view that the commodity is set to rebound.

Betting Worst Is Over, Steelmakers Spending Again After Cuts (Bloomberg)

After years of losses, plant closings and job cuts, some of the world’s biggest steelmakers are ready to spend more on their businesses.

NASDAQ TOPS 6,000 FOR THE FIRST TIME: Here's what you need to know (Business Insider)

Stocks took off on Tuesday for the second straight day of strong gains.

All three major US stock indexes finished well into the green after a slew of strong earnings and solid US economic data. The Nasdaq composite topped the 6,000 mark for


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Phil on Nasdaq

 





Housing’s Echo Bubble Now Exceeds The 2006-07 Bubble Peak

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds

If you need some evidence that the echo-bubble in housing is global, take a look at this chart of Sweden's housing bubble.

A funny thing often occurs after a mania-fueled asset bubble pops: an echo-bubble inflates a few years later, as monetary authorities and all the institutions that depend on rising asset valuations go all-in to reflate the crushed asset class.

Take a quick look at the Case-Shiller Home Price Index charts for San Francisco, Seattle and Portland, OR. Each now exceeds its previous Housing Bubble #1 peak:

Is an asset bubble merely in the eye of the beholder? This is what the multitudes of monetary authorities (central banks, realty industry analysts, etc.) are claiming: there's no bubble here, just a "normal market" in action.

This self-serving justification--a bubble isn't a bubble because we need soaring asset prices--ignores the tell-tale characteristics of bubbles. Even a cursory glance at these charts reveals various characteristics of bubbles: a steep, sustained lift-off, a defined peak, a sharp decline that retraces much or all of the bubble's rise, and a symmetrical duration of the time needed to inflate and deflate the bubble extremes.

It seems housing bubbles take about 5 to 6 years to reach their bubble peaks, and about half that time to retrace much or all of the gains.

Bubbles have a habit of overshooting on the downside when they finally burst. The Federal Reserve acted quickly in 2009-10 to re-inflate the housing bubble by lowering interest rates to near-zero and buying over $1 trillion of mortgage-backed securities.

When bubbles are followed by echo-bubbles, the bursting of the second bubble tends to signal the end of the speculative cycle in that asset class. There is no fundamental reason why housing could not round-trip to levels below the 2011 post-bubble #1 trough.

Consider the fundamentals of China's remarkable housing bubble. The consensus view is: sure, China's housing prices could fall modestly, but since Chinese households buy homes with cash or large down payments, this decline won't trigger a banking crisis like America's housing bubble did in 2008.

The problem isn't a banking crisis; it's


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1st Quarter GDP Estimates: ZeroHedge, Mish, GDPNow, Nowcast, ISM, Markit

Courtesy of Mish.

On Friday, April 28, the BEA will release its preliminary estimate for first quarter GDP.

Prior to that release, here is a compilation of six estimates from ZeroHedge, GDPNow, Nowcast, ISM, Markit, and me.<!–more–>

GDPNow Forecast: 0.5 Percent — April 18, 2017

FRBNY Nowcast: 2.8 Percent — April 21, 2017

Model Flaws

  1. Nowcast uses no hard auto data: This is a serious error. Autos account for 20% of retail sales and fleet sales are also very important.
  2. Nowcast has an incorrect reliance on unemployment rate: People dropping out of the labor force and actual employment rising can both move the number in the same direction. Both things cannot mean the same thing.
  3. ISM vs PMI: Both reports measure the same thing, yet those reports signal very different things. At least one of them is wrong. GDPNow and Nowcast both rely on ISM even though the PMI reports have been more accurate, at least recently.
  4. The GDPNow and Nowcast models both suffer from an inability to think. The weather provides a nice example. In December, the weather was unusually cold, causing Industrial Production numbers to soar (heat and electric production), for the entire upcoming quarter. I estimated in advance, January would take away those numbers. My assertion played out, at least for GDPNow. I still cannot account for Nowcast.

ISM vs PMI

I discussed the difference between ISM and Markit’s PMI estimates recently, for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing (services).


Continue reading here…





Lumber Trade Idiocy: Trump Hits Canada with Proposed 20% Tariff on Lumber

Courtesy of Mish.

After bitching about the unfair trade policies of China, Mexico, Germany, and Japan for years, Trump finally decided to act.

His first target is Canada.

The dispute centers on Canadian provinces that have been allegedly allowing loggers to cut down trees at reduced rates and sell them at low prices

The Wall Street Journal reports Trump Administration Plans to Impose 20% Tariff on Canadian Softwood-Lumber Imports

The Trump administration is taking retaliatory action against Canada over a decades-old trade dispute, moving to impose a 20% tariff on softwood lumber that is typically used to build single-family homes, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Monday in an interview.

Mr. Ross said the tariff would be applied retroactively and imposed on Canadian exports to the U.S. of about $5 billion a year. He said the dispute centers on Canadian provinces that have been allegedly allowing loggers to cut trees down at improperly subsidized costs and sell them at lower prices.

The decision is preliminary and the Commerce Department will need to make a final determination. After that, the U.S. International Trade Commission will also need to find that the U.S. industry has suffered injury before any tariff is levied. But even a preliminary decision has immediate real-world consequences, by discouraging importers from buying lumber from Canada.

The Canadian government said late Monday it “disagrees strongly” with the Commerce Department’s decision, arguing the reasoning was based on “baseless and unfounded” allegations from the U.S. lumber industry.

The U.S. lumber industry filed a complaint last fall to the Commerce Department, alleging that Canadian lumber is unfairly dumped—or sold at less than market value—into the U.S. market and that Canada heavily subsidizes its timber industry by offering Pacific Coast producers access to wood from government-owned land at below-market prices.

The prospect of U.S. duties on Canadian lumber imports has roiled prices so far this year. Lumber futures rose more than 25% in the early months of 2017, peaking at their highest point in over 12 years. The U.S. ran a trade deficit of $5.28 billion in 2016 with Canada on products from sawmills, which captures softwood lumber—or the product at the heart of the U.S.-Canadian dispute.

Lumber Futures

Trade Idiocy

Cheap Canadian lumber is good for Americans. Cheap American dairy produce


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New Home Sales Near Post Crisis High

Courtesy of Mish.

New homes sales rose at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate(SAAR) of 621,000 in March vs. an Econoday expectation of 588,000.

All elements are kicking in for housing right now with prices showing strength, permits moving up, and also sales on the climb. New home sales came in much stronger than expected, at a 621,000 annualized rate in March which was last exceeded by a 622,000 rate in July last year but is otherwise, by far, the best of the expansion.

The surge in sales did not come at the expense of pricing which, on the contrary, was very strong in March, up a monthly 7.5 percent to a median $315,100. The year-on-year rate, at only 1.2 percent vs 15.6 percent for sales, offers room for further price gains ahead. Supply did move into the market, up 3,000 to 268,000 units, though relative to sales remains thin at 5.2 months vs 5.4 months in February and January and 5.5 months in March last year.

The West is the standout region, up 16.7 percent in the month to a 175,000 rate and a 33 percent year-on-year gain. The South is by far the largest region for new homes, up 1.6 percent in the month to 323,000 and a 5.9 percent year-on-year gain. Also having a good month was the Northeast, up 26 percent in the month to 39,000.

Existing home sales (in data released last week) are also at expansion highs as are most prices (this morning’s FHFA and Case-Shiller reports). The new home sales market is a central feature of the housing sector and will set the pace for housing in general, one that increasingly points to a very strong 2017.

Post-Crisis High

Mortgage News Daily reports New Home Sales Nearly Match Post-Crisis High.

Sales of newly constructed homes appear to have stopped, at least for the moment, their up-one-month, down-the-next pattern. They rose for the third consecutive month in March, and did so convincingly.

The Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development say that sales of new homes jumped 5.8 percent in March, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 621,000 units. The rate nearly tied that of July 2016, 622,000 units, for the highest sales pace since the housing crisis. March also marked the first


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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

European stocks had a huge day after Emmanuel Macron took the lead in the French elections (Business Insider)

Stocks across continental Europe had a huge day on Monday after the French presidential vote set the stage for a final run-off between centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right National Front candidate Marine Le Pen.

U.K. Economy May Have Had Its Weakest Quarter in a Year: Chart (Bloomberg)

The U.K. economy’s powerhouse performance since the Brexit vote may be starting to lose momentum.

Asian Shares Extend Gains as Global Relief Offsets China Risks (Bloomberg)

Asian shares climbed for a fourth straight day, keeping a global equities rally intact, as investors shrugged off concerns over North Korea and China’s financial risks.

Oil Veteran Says OPEC Needs Year to Pull Off Elusive Mission (Bloomberg)

OPEC needs a year more to accomplish what’s at the moment proving to be mission impossible, according to a veteran oil analyst.

Cash-Loving Switzerland Wins Banknote of Year for 50-Franc Bill (Bloomberg)

The Swiss National Bank’s 50-franc ($50) bill was named banknote of the year by a group of international connoisseurs, beating out 18 competitors including the Bank of England’s controversial polymer note as well as ones from the Seychelles and Macedonia.

Gold and Bullion Miners Tumble as French Vote Cuts Haven Demand (Bloomberg)

Gold futures fell to the lowest in almost two weeks and bullion mining stocks sank as investors favored riskier assets on expectations that Emmanuel Macron will become France’s next president. Copper and other industrial metals rose.

European Stocks Hold Steady Close to Highest Level Since 2015 (Bloomberg)

European stocks were little changed after climbing to their highest level since 2015 on Monday as investors assessed the rally brought on by a political centrist winning France’s first-round election amid corporate earnings.

The euro is steady the day after its Macron inspired rally (Business Insider)

The single currency jumped more than 2% on Sunday evening as


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Managing the Chaos – Investing vs. Gambling

 

Managing the Chaos – Investing vs. Gambling

Courtesy of Wade, Investing Caffeine

How does one invest amid the slew of palm sweating, teeth grinding headlines of Syria, North Korea, Brexit, expanding populism, Trumpcare, French candidate Marine Le Pen, and a potential government shutdown? Facing a persistent mountain of worries can seem daunting to many. With so many seemingly uncontrollable factors impacting short-term interest rates, foreign exchange rates, and equity markets, it begs the question of whether investing is a game of luck (gambling) or a game of skill?

The short answer is…it depends. Professional gambler Alvin “Titanic” Thompson captured the essence when someone asked him whether poker was a game of chance. Thompson responded by stating, “Not the way I play it.”

If you go to Las Vegas and gamble, most games are generally a zero sum-game, meaning there are an equal number of winners and losers with the house (casino) locking in a guaranteed spread (profit). For example, consider a game like roulette – there are 18 red slots, 18 black slots, and 2 green slots (0 & 00), so if you are betting on red vs. black, then the casino has a 5.26% advantage. If you bet long enough, the casino will get all your money – there’s a reason Lost Wages Las Vegas can build those extravagantly large casinos.

The same principles of money-losing bets apply to speculative short-term trading. Sure, there are examples of speculators hitting it big in the short-run, but most day traders lose money (see Day Trading Your House) because the odds are stacked against them. In order to make an accretive, profitable trade, not only does the trader have to be right on the security they’re selling (i.e. that security must underperform in the future), but they also have to be right on the security they are buying (i.e. that security must outperform in the future). But the odds for the speculator get worse once you also account for the trading fees, taxes, bid-ask spreads, impact costs (i.e., liquidity), and informational costs (i.e., front running, high frequency traders, algorithms, etc.).

The…
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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

China clamps down on excess steel as Japan decries Trump 'protectionism' (Reuters)

Twenty-nine Chinese steel firms have had their licenses revoked as Beijing kept up its campaign to tackle overcapacity in the sector and days after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would open a probe into cheap steel exports from China and elsewhere.

German Business Confidence Climbs to Highest Since July 2011 (Bloomberg)

German business sentiment rose to the strongest level in almost six years in a sign that the momentum in Europe’s largest economy is set to continue.

Top Iron Ore Forecaster Says Prices Will Sink Back Below $50 (Bloomberg)

Iron ore is destined to retreat back below $50 a metric ton next year as supplies go on rising, according to the top forecaster, who warned that weakening prices will probably encourage the sale of inventories.

Cracking the Mystery of Labor's Falling Share of GDP (Bloomberg)

Economists are very worried about the decline in labor’s share of U.S. national income. One reason they’re concerned is because when less of an economy’s wealth flows to workers, it exacerbates inequality and increases the risk of social instability.

Oil Falls to Four-Week Low as U.S. Drilling Seen Boosting Output (Bloomberg)

Oil fell for a sixth day as the ramp-up of U.S. drilling signaled further production gains in the world’s biggest crude-consuming nation.

Bundesbank Sees German Growth Decline That Immigration Can't Fix (Bloomberg)

Germany’s aging population will probably suck some power out of the economy in the next decade and immigration won’t be enough to fix the problem.

The Rich Are Living Longer and Taking More From Taxpayers (Bloomberg)

Age 100 is now an imaginable goal for young people around the world with good health care. The average woman in Japan is already living to 87. Yet many Americans are dying younger and younger.

How a $1.4 Billion ETF Gold Rush Rattled Mining Stocks Around the World (The Wall Street Journal)

Unruly trading in the shares of some small gold companies is rekindling investor concern about the pressure that fast-growing passive funds can exert on the stocks they


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Phil's Favorites

Does cooperating with ICE harm local police? What the research says

 

Does cooperating with ICE harm local police? What the research says

Courtesy of Patria de Lancer JulnesPennsylvania State University and Jennifer C. GibbsPennsylvania State University

An ICE operation in Los Angeles, Feb. 7, 2017. Charles Reed/U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement via AP

Police need public cooperation.

The police rely on the public to report and help solve crimes. This is especially true now th...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. Stocks Add to Rally Ahead of Tax Plan Amid Earnings Pickup (Bloomberg)

U.S. stocks climbed, following a global equity rally on Monday, as investors assessed corporate earnings and awaited a tax plan from the White House scheduled for Wednesday.

Oil prices can tell you a lot about military spending (Business Insider)

Governments generally increase military spending when they are involved in an armed conflict or when they perceive a security threat.

...



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Zero Hedge

Gary Cohn Is The Leading Candidate To Replace Janet Yellen: Beacon

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Several months ago, when it was still conventional wisdom that Trump wanted to replace Janet Yellen - at least until Trump's famous WSJ interview in which he flipped on this and various other issues - with a hawk once her turn runs out in 2018, the financial punditry was busy coming up with potential replacement names, a practice which gradually faded away once it emerged that Trump may well keep Yellen. That changed today when in a note by Beacon Policy Advisors, a new name emerged which acco...



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ValueWalk

Despite Record Tax Revenues, Budget Deficits Remain Huge

By Gary D. Halbert. Originally published at ValueWalk.

FORECASTS & TRENDS E-LETTER
by Gary D. Halbert
April 25, 2017

44% of US Households Don’t Pay Any Federal Income Tax

1. 44% of Households Don’t Pay Any Federal Income Tax

2. Lion’s Share of Federal Income Taxes Paid by the “Rich”

3. President Trump to Unveil Tax Cuts as Early as Wednesday

4. Despite Record Tax Revenues, Budget Deficits Remain Huge

5. Wellesley Asset Management Webinar, Wednesday, May 3

Overview

Income Tax Day came and went last week without a great deal of fanfare. Most ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

King Dollar; Attempting to break 3-year rising support

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at a long-term chart of the US Dollar, that was shared on 12/30/16. This chart highlighted that King Dollar was facing two long term resistance lines, at the 104 zone. (See Post Here). Joe Friday was pointing out this was a rare test of resistance and could be the price zone, where a major top could take place.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

...

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Chart School

Breakouts All Around: Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and S&P

Courtesy of Declan.

The French election result was greeted as a welcome trigger for breakouts. All indices benefited from the action. Best of the action was in the Russell 2000. The Russell 2000 cleared 1,390 which marked a resistance level of the former bearish consolidation triangle. Technicals are all bullish and an intraday move which pushed below 1,390 but came back by the close would be very healthy for bulls.


The Nasdaq gapped to new all-time highs. The bulk of the gains were banked by the open. If Monday's gap can h...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

BDC's Crypto Corner

Hello fellow PSW-ers, it's biodieselchris here. I've been interested in cryptocurrencies (informally, "cryptos" or "coins") since 2011 when I first heard about Bitcoin, Since that time I've become somewhat of a subject matter expert and personal investor in Bitcoin and other alternative cryptocurrencies ("altcoins"). I have even started one of my own!

I've been posting comments about cryptos in Phil's daily post from time to time. Recently, Phil and I got on a call and he asked if I would like to run a blog on his site specifically about cryptos, which I thought was a great idea. My goal would be to educate members on what I know about how coins work, how I research coins (what I find interesting), how exactly one can invest (buy, hold, and sell) coins and a basic, easy-to-follow general how-to on all things crypto. In addition, other members have expressed an interest in learning more directly...



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Members' Corner

Should I buy that stock?

Courtesy of Phil Stasukaitis (pstas)

I was asked by my local investment club to do a presentation on "how to buy a stock?" As I pondered the question, I began by noting all the elements that I monitor regularly and which come in to play as part of my decision process. As the group is comprised novices to experts, I tried to gear my discussion to cover both basics and more advanced concepts.

Four Part Discussion

  1. Macro Economic Indicators
  2. Market Indexes
  3. Fundamental Analysis
  4. Technical Analysis

1. Macro Economic Indicators

We'll start with reviewing some basic concepts and measurements that have direct effects on the stock market. 

A. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

...

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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Biotech

CAR-T & CRISPR - the Future is Now

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members....it has been a while since my last post, but since many have all been on the board following the chat, it is time for a scientific lesson in a few of the companies we are long.  In addition, another revolution is coming in the medical field, and it will be touched upon as well.

CAR-T - stands for Chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and the T is for T-cell.  

From the picture above, T-cells are one cell type of our immune system that fight off infection as well as they are one player at keeping rogue cells from becoming cancerous. Unfortunately, cancer somehow evades the immune system and so it begins.

CAR-T came along in the late1980s via a brilliant scientist, Zelig Eshhar...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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