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How Could It Happen?

Things That Make You Go Hmmm: How Could It Happen?

By Grant Williams

“How could it happen, Grandad?”

The old man’s eyes misted over as he looked down at his grandson, who sat at his feet, his young eyes alive with questions as he turned the heavy gold bar over in his hands.

”I’ve told you the story too many times to count,” said the man, half-pleading, but knowing full-well he’d soon be deep into the umpteenth retelling of a story he’d lived through once in reality and a thousand times more through the eager questioning of the young man now tugging at his trouser leg. “Why don’t I tell you the story of how I met your Grandma instead?”

“Because that’s boring.” The reply was borne of the honesty only a ten-year-old possesses.

“OK, OK,” said the old man, a smile creeping into the corners of his mouth, “you win.”

“It began in early November of 2014, when a man called Alasdair Macleod published a report on how the Chinese had been secretly buying gold for 30 years.

“Most people believed what the Chinese Central Bank had been telling the world — that they owned just 1,054 tonnes. That number, first published in 2009, had remained unchanged for over five years; but there was a group of people who refused to accept that the People’s Bank of China were telling the truth, and those people set about diligently doing their own analysis to try to determine what the real number might be.

“In early November of 2014, Macleod’s report — which went largely unnoticed because most people were busy celebrating new highs in the stock market and the fact that a newly strengthening dollar was forcing down the price of gold — laid out the case for there having been an astounding amount of gold bought by the Chinese over the previous three decades.

“According to Macleod, China saw an opportunity at a crucial time and, with a view on the longer term, they took it.”

Grandad dipped his thumb and forefinger into his vPad, which hovered just above the table, and pinched and cast a paragraph into the air before them.…
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Why Do So Many John Wiley Authors Want You to Trade the Markets?

Courtesy of Pam Martens.

9781118650059_cover.inddThe way the 200-year old publishing house, John Wiley & Sons, is pumping out books enticing average folks to trade the markets, one might be inclined to forget that 2014 will go down in history as the year when there were more charges of rigged markets on television, in courtrooms, at Senate hearings, and in prosecutors’ offices than at any time in the history of markets. If ever there was a time less conducive to trying your hand at trading, I can’t think of it, although October 29, 1929 might be a contender.

Wiley says it “provides everything the trader needs to survive and succeed in every kind of market.” But if every market is rigged against even highly sophisticated traders, how could a rookie with a little book learning succeed?

Let’s review what we’ve learned so far this year. On March 30, author Michael Lewis, who previously worked on the iconic trading floor of Salomon Brothers, went on 60 Minutes with professional trader Brad Katsuyama to explain to the world that “The United States stock market, the most iconic market in global capitalism is rigged.”

When asked by interviewer Steve Kroft who it is that’s rigging the market, Lewis replied: “By a combination of these stock exchanges, the big Wall Street banks and high-frequency traders…” Lewis goes on to explain that “High-frequency traders, big Wall Street firms and stock exchanges have spent billions to gain an advantage of a millisecond for themselves and their customers, just to get a peek at stock market prices and orders a flash before everyone else, along with the opportunity to act on it.”

With that knowledge, according to Lewis, these traders are able to front run your order. Katsuyama, a professional trader at the Royal Bank of Canada who later started his own firm, said the market would seem willing to sell him a stock but when he went to buy it, the price went up. It felt like someone knew what he was going to do – because they did. High frequency traders who could afford to spend millions to gain a millisecond advantage at seeing market prices faster could front run the slower trader’s order.

If the stock market is rigged, maybe you could use some of those Wiley books on trading the futures’ markets instead. According to three veteran…
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The REAL Looting Is Happening On Wall Street … Not In Ferguson

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

LOOTERS

LOOTERS AT THE FED

ANOTHER LOOTER

Images by William Banzai … OBVIOUSLY!

The looting in Ferguson, Missouri is bad.    The looters are giving the peaceful protesters against the shooting of Michael Brown a bad name, and provoking an armed (and over-militarized) response by the police.

But let’s put things in perspective …

Wall Street’s crimes and fraud have cost the economy tens of trillions of dollars.

The big banks are still engaged mind-blowing levels of manipulation and crime.

Nobel prize winning economist Joe Stiglitz and well-known economist Nouriel Roubini say that we’ve got to jail – or perhaps even hang – some bankers before they’ll stop looting the economy.

Nobel prize winning economist George Akerlof has demonstrated that failure to punish white collar criminals – and instead bailing them out- creates incentives for more economic crimes and further destruction of the economy in the future.

We explained in 2009:

As Examiner.com pointed out in May (it is worth quoting the essay at some length, as this is an important concept), looting has replaced free market capitalism:

Nobel prize-winning economist George Akerlof co-wrote a paper in 1993 describing the causes of the S&L crisis and other financial meltdowns. As summarized by the New York Times:

In the paper, they argued that several financial crises in the 1980s, like the Texas real estate bust, had been the result of private investors taking advantage of the government. The investors had borrowed huge amounts of money, made big profits when times were good and then left the government holding the bag for their eventual (and predictable) losses.

In a word, the investors looted. Someone trying to make an honest profit, Professors Akerlof and Romer

[co-author of the paper, and himself a


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Needham Downgrades Cubic To Hold

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CUB
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Cubic Defense Systems Awarded $35M Contract to Support, Repair Area Weapons Effects Simulator for British Army

Analysts at Needham downgraded Cubic (NYSE: CUB) from Buy to Hold.

Cubic shares have dropped 16.76% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 index has gained 14.38% in the same period.

Cubic’s shares rose 0.91% to $47.50 in pre-market trading.

Latest Ratings for CUB

Date Firm Action From To
Nov 2014 Needham Downgrades Buy Hold
Aug 2014 Credit Suisse Maintains Neutral
Jul 2014 JP Morgan Maintains Overweight

View More Analyst Ratings for CUB
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: NeedhamDowngrades Analyst Ratings





Barrington Research Raises Time Warner Price Target

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related TWX
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James Goss of Barrington Research reaffirmed an Outperform rating on Time Warner Inc (NYSE: TWX) on Wednesday with a price target raised to $96 from a previous $95 due to a higher adjustment to fourth quarter estimates.

Goss estimates the company will earn $0.99 per share in the fourth quarter after previously projecting $0.96 per share. This implies a full year EPS estimate of $4.18, a 19 percent increase from a year ago.

Revenue for the fourth quarter is projected by the analyst to total $7.486 billion, higher than the previous $7.425 billion estimate. The higher revenue estimate is attributed to higher subscription revenue expectations at Turner.

“At current levels, we feel our opinion can incorporate solid fundamental considerations, while also positioning investors to benefit from any renewal in consolidation activity,” Goss wrote. The analyst adds that the company's fundamental story remains “compelling” including an “impressive” mix of premium and basic cable networks and the “exceptional” capabilities of Warner Brothers film and television studio.

Goss raised his fiscal 2015 estimates and now expects the company to earn $4.70 per share after previously projecting an earnings of $4.60 per share. Revenue for the full fiscal year has also been raised to $28.508 billion, from $28.423 billion.

Latest Ratings for TWX

Date Firm Action From To
Nov 2014 Barrington Research Reiterates Outperform
Nov 2014 Goldman Sachs Upgrades Neutral Conviction Buy
Nov 2014 Jefferies Maintains Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for TWX
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: James Goss Time Warner Turner Warner BrothersAnalyst Color Price Target Analyst Ratings





Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Tuesday November 25, 2014

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Tuesday November 25, 2014:

Visteon Confirms Discussions with Hahn & Co. Regarding Potential Sale of Halla Visteon Climate Control Corp Stake

The Talks:
Visteon Corporation (NYSE: VC) confirmed Tuesday, it is currently engaged in discussions with Korea’s Hahn & Company regarding a potential sale of Visteon’s ownership interest in Halla Visteon Climate Control Corp.

to the private equity firm. Reuters reported on Sunday, that Visteon was preparing to sell its 69.99% stake in Halla Visteon in a deal said to be valued at approximately $3.6 billion, according to a source.

Visteon Corporation closed Tuesday at $98.36, a loss of 1%.

Carlyle Group to Acquire Stake in South Africa’s Tiger Wheel & Tyre

The Rumor:
U.S. private equity firm The Carlyle Group LP (NASDAQ: CG) is preparing to take a stake in South Africa’s Tiger Wheel & Tyre, according to Reuter. The deal values the tyre dealer at approximately $158 million, according to a source.

Carlyle Group shares lost $0.23 Tuesday, to close at $129.23.

Papa John’s acquires Pizza Corner stores in South India

The Deal:
Papa John’s International, Inc. (NASDAQ: PZZA), Avan Projects and Global Franchise Architects announced Monday, the acquisition of Pizza Corner stores in South India. Papa John’s will convert the existing Pizza Corner stores to Papa John’s branded restaurants through Q1 2015. Papa John’s confirms its commitment to expand its presence in India, specifically in Bangalore, Chennai and Hyderabad.

GFA brands’ Pizza Corner, is the third largest pizza chain in Southern India. The minimum of 40 store conversions will begin in late 2014 and continuing into 2015.

Papa John’s closed Tuesday at $52.17, a gain of 2.5%.

Posted-In: News Rumors M&A





Smith & Wesson To Acquire Battenfeld Technologies For $130 Million

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Smith & Wesson Holding Corp (NASDAQ: SWHC) announced on Wednesday it will acquire Battenfeld Technologies, a hunting and shooting accessories provider for $130 million.

Battenfeld Technologies develops and sells shooting, reloading, gunsmithing and gun cleaning supplies under several known brands including Caldwell Shooting Supplies. The company has a presence in national retailers including Dicks Sporting Goods, Bass Pro Shops, Cabela's and Gander Mountain. The company also sells its products online through Internet retailers, including Amazon.com.

Smith & Wesson expects the deal to be accretive to its gross margins, earnings per share and cash generated in fiscal 2016. The company will finance the acquisition through existing cash balances and cash from a $100 million line of credit, which has been expanded to $125 million.

The company expects the deal to close in mid to late December.

“Battenfeld Technologies provides us with a unique opportunity to acquire a thriving company that fits perfectly within our core firearm business,” James Debney, Smith & Wesson President and CEO said in a press release. "It also allows us to move more strongly into the hunting vertical as well as establish a strong platform for growth in our existing firearm accessories business, which has been a small but highly profitable part of our company.”

Posted-In: Amazon Bass Pro Shops Battenfeld Technologies dick's sporting goods guns Smith And WessonNews M&A





Merkel Will Blink First, Not Putin

Courtesy of Mish.

The cold war took another twist last week when a Senior German Politician Endorsed Russian Takeover of Crimea.

Former state premier Matthias Platzeck, chairman of the German-Russian Forum business lobby and erstwhile Social Democrat (SPD) chief, is the first high-ranking German to say the West should endorse the annexation as a way to help resolve the Ukraine crisis.

Platzeck, 60, told the Passauer Neue Presse newspaper: “A wise man changes his mind – a fool never will… The annexation of Crimea must be retroactively arranged under international law so that it’s acceptable for everyone.”

Platzeck, Brandenburg’s popular state premier from 2002 to 2013, struck a nerve in eastern Germany where there is far less support for sanctions against Russia than in the West.

“We have to find a resolution so that Putin won’t walk off the field as the loser,” said Platzeck, whose career was nurtured by ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder – a friend of Putin. He said areas held by separatists will never be part of Ukraine.

Political Infighting

Platzeck’s statement shocked a lot of people including German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier who stated Germany will Never Accept Crimea Annexation.

We don’t accept what has happened and we don’t accept Europe’s borders being changed again 70 years after the war,” said Steinmeier.

Cracks Form

Der Spiegel reports Cracks Form in Berlin Over Russia Stance.

A political solution is more distant than ever in the Russia conflict, with the German government and EU having exhausted their diplomatic options. A rift may now be growing between Chancellor Merkel and her foreign minister over Berlin’s tough stance against Moscow.

Dead End for Merkel

Today, Reuters reports Merkel Hits Diplomatic Dead-End With Putin.

Since February, when the pro-Russian president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich, fled Kiev amid violent protests on the Maidan square, Germany has taken the lead in trying to convince Putin to engage with the West.

Merkel has spoken to him by phone three dozen times. Her Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, a member of the Social Democrats (SPD), traditionally a Russia-friendly party, has invested hundreds of hours trying to secure a negotiated solution to the conflict….



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Follow The Sand To The Real Fracking Boom

Follow The Sand To The Real Fracking Boom

By James Stafford of OilPrice.com

When it takes up to four million pounds of sand to frack a single well, it’s no wonder that demand is outpacing supply and frack sand producers are becoming the biggest behind-the-scenes beneficiaries of the American oil and gas boom.

Demand is exploding for “frac sand”--a durable, high-purity quartz sand used to help produce petroleum fluids and prop up man-made fractures in shale rock formations through which oil and gas flows—turning this segment into the top driver of value in the shale revolution.

“One of the major players in Eagle Ford is saying they’re short 6 million tons of 100 mesh alone in 2014 and they don’t know where to get it. And that’s just one player,” Rasool Mohammad, President and CEO of Select Sands Corporation told Oilprice.com.

Frack sand exponentially increases the return on investment for a well, and oil and gas companies are expected to use some 95 billion pounds of frack sand this year, up nearly 30% from 2013 and up 50% from forecasts made just last year.

Pushing demand up is the trend for wider, shorter fracs, which require twice as much sand. The practice of downspacing—or decreasing the space between wells—means a dramatic increase in the amount of frac sand used. The industry has gone from drilling four wells per square mile to up to 16 using shorter, wider fracs. In the process, they have found that the more tightly spaced wells do not reduce production from surrounding wells.

This all puts frac sand in the drivers’ seat of the next phase of the American oil boom, and it’s a commodity that has already seen its price increase up to 20% over the past year alone.

Frac sand is poised for even more significant gains over the immediate term, with long-term contracts locking in a lucrative future as exploration and production companies experiment with using even more sand per well. 

Pioneer Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE:PXD) says the output of wells is up to 30% higher when they are blasted with more sand.

Citing RBC Capital Markets, The Wall Street Journal noted that approximately…
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Rents Heading Up? Will the CPI Follow?

Courtesy of Mish.

Rents are up 6.5% in San Francisco, and 4.5% in numerous other cities. Is this a leading indicator for a stronger inflation as measured by the CPI.

Please consider the Variant Perception article Higher Rents in the US are a Strong Support for CPI.

Despite the subdued nature of US CPI, some large components are turning up.  Owners’ equivalent rent and rent of primary residence, which together account almost of a third of the CPI basket, are turning up strongly. A low vacancy rate and a relatively resilient US economy is helping to drive rents higher, with San Francisco seeing the greatest rent increases, at 6.4% over the last year, and with many other cities, such as Nashville, Seattle, Denver and Houston, all seeing increases of over 4.5%

Furthermore, our leading indicator for US Shelter CPI, which includes apartment vacancy rates and the growth in the working-age population among its inputs, shows that the trend should continue. Higher rents are a strong support for headline CPI in the US.

Owners’ Equivalent Rent

Owners Equivalent Rent vs. CPI Shifted 18 Months

The red line in the above chart is not the CPI, but rather a “leading indicator for US Shelter CPI, which includes apartment vacancy rates”

I took the above chart, clipped out the red CPI line, made a layer out of it in Photoshop, and then shifted the line back 18 months with reduced opacity so you can see both lines. Here is my result.

Owners Equivalent Rent vs. CPI Shifted 18 Months and Not Shifted




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Phil's Favorites

How Could It Happen?

Things That Make You Go Hmmm: How Could It Happen?

By Grant Williams

“How could it happen, Grandad?”

The old man’s eyes misted over as he looked down at his grandson, who sat at his feet, his young eyes alive with questions as he turned the heavy gold bar over in his hands.

”I’ve told you the story too many times to count,” said the man, half-pleading, but knowing full-well he’d soon be deep into the umpteenth retelling of a story he’d lived through once in reality and a thousand times more through the eager questioning of the young man now tugging at his trouser leg. “Why don’t I tell you the story of how I met your Grandma instead?”

“Because that’s boring.” The reply was borne of the honesty only a ten-year-old possesses.

...



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Zero Hedge

3 Things Worth Thinking About

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,

Data And Surveys Continue To Part Company

Last Friday, I discussed the growing gap between economic reports particularly when they measure the same basic areas of the overall economy. For example, how can the Markit Manufacturing PMI Index be negative for three months while the ISM PMI has surged higher during the same period. Both cannot be right.

Well, the same thing happened yesterday with the release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Ind...



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Chart School

Michigan Consumer Sentiment for November Slightly Trims Its Strong Preliminary Reading

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for November came in at 88.8, a bit off the 89.4 preliminary reading but up from from the October Final of 86.9. As finaly readings go, this is a post-recession high and the highest level since July 2007, over seven years ago. Today's number came in below the Investing.com forecast of 90.2.

See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. I've highlighted recessions and included real GDP to help evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy.


...



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Insider Scoop

Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Tuesday November 25, 2014

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Tuesday November 25, 2014:

Visteon Confirms Discussions with Hahn & Co. Regarding Potential Sale of Halla Visteon Climate Control Corp Stake

The Talks:
Visteon Corporation (NYSE: VC) confirmed Tuesday, it is currently engaged in discussions with Korea's Hahn & Company regarding a potential sale of Visteon's ownership interest in Halla Visteon Climate Control Corp.

to the private equity firm. Reuters reported on Sunday, that Visteon was preparing to sell its 69.99% stake in Halla Viste...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Holiday fever takes hold of stock investors, but a pullback is needed

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

With warmer weather arriving to melt the early snowfall across much of the country, investors seem to be catching a severe case of holiday fever and positioning themselves for the seasonally bullish time of the year. And to give an added boost, both Europe and Asia provided more fuel for the bull’s fire last week with stimulus announcements, particularly China’s interest rate cut. Yes, all systems are go for U.S. equities as there really is no other game in town. But nothing goes up in a straight line, not even during the holidays, so a near-term market pullback would be a healthy way to prevent a steeper correction in January.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based Sector...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Mining

Bitcoin Mining

Courtesy of Global Economic Intersection

By Rod Garratt and Rosa Hayes - Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

In June 2014, the mining pool Ghash.IO briefly controlled more than half of all mining power in the Bitcoin network, awakening fears that it might attempt to manipulate the blockchain, the public record of all Bitcoin transactions. Alarming headlines splattered the blogosphere. But should members of the Bitcoin community be worried?

Miners are members of the Bitcoin community who engage in a proce...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of November 25th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the Happy Thanksgiving Edition of Stock World Weekly!

Click on this link and sign in with your PSW user name and password. 

Picture via Pixabay.

...

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Market Shadows

Official Moves in the Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio

By Ilene 

I officially bought 250 shares of EZCH at $18.76 and sold 300 shares of IGT at $17.09 in Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio yesterday (Fri. 11-21).

Click here for Thursday's post where I was thinking about buying EZCH. After further reading, I decided to add it to the virtual portfolio and to sell IGT and several other stocks, which we'll be saying goodbye to next week.

Notes

1. th...



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Option Review

Yamana Gold call options sink

Yamana Gold call options sink

By Andrew Wilkinson at Interactive Brokers

A four-year low for the spot price of gold has had a devastating impact on Yamana Gold (Ticker: AUY), with shares in the name down at the lowest price in six years. Some option traders were especially keen to sell premium and appear to see few signs of a lasting rebound within the next five months. The price of gold suffered again Wednesday as the dollar strengthened and stock prices advanced. The post price of gold fell to $1145 adding further pain to share prices of gold miners. Shares in Yamana Gold tumbled to $3.62 and the lowest price since 2008 as call option sellers used the April expiration contract to write premium at the $5.00 strike. That strike is now 38% above the price of the stock. Premium writers took in around 16-cents per contract o...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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