Archive for the ‘Topic’ Category

Silver Flushes Secret Sauce Down Toilet, Now Projects Trump has 69% Chance

Courtesy of Mish.

Just yesterday Nate Silver projected Ted Cruz had a 65% chance of Cruz winning despite the fact that the five most recent polls all had Donald Trump winning.

Today Silver flushed his secret sauce down the toilet, where it belonged all along.

Hail Mary Pass Revisited

This is what things looked like to Silver yesterday as I commented in Indiana Hail Mary Pass Coming Up.

Indiana Polls Plus

Indiana Polls Plus

The only way that makes any sense is if Silver believes every poll is extremely heavily biased in favor of Trump and something else in is play (like a deal that fell apart the moment it was announced between Kasich and Cruz).

Current Odds

  • Polls Only: Trump 70%
  • Polls Plus: Cruz 65%

My comment yesterday was “I find that preposterous even if Cruz does manage to win Indiana.”

Today Silver changed his mind, and dramatically.

Indiana Polls Plus May 1

New Poll


Continue reading here…





75% of Economists Expect Rate Hike in June

Courtesy of Mish.

As amazing as it may seem, a recent polls says 75% of economists expect a rate hike in June.

Before you break out laughing, that headline is from April 7, not today.

However, that story seemed nearly as absurd then as it does now.

So commence with the laughing.

Flashback April 7, 2016: The Wall Street Journal reports WSJ Survey: Most Economists Expect Next Fed Rate Increase in June.

Nearly 75% of business and academic economists polled by The Wall Street Journal in recent days said the Fed would next raise its benchmark federal-funds rate at its June 14-15 policy meeting, down slightly from 76% in the Journal’s March survey.

Forecasters assigned minimal chances to the Fed acting at its policy meeting in less than three weeks’ time. Just one economist in the survey predicted Fed officials would lift rates at the April 26-27 meeting, compared with four in the March survey. The Journal surveyed 69 economists Friday through Tuesday, though not every respondent answered every question.

Just one economist — Bricklin Dwyer of BNP Paribas — said officials would wait until after 2017 to raise rates, while Vanderbilt University professor J. Dewey Daane said he wasn’t expecting another rate increase.

June Hike Probability

Fedwatch 2016-04-30

Congratulations Due


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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Buffett Says Bonds Unattractive, If Not Terrible for Reinsurers (Bloomberg)

Warren Buffett, who built Berkshire Hathaway Inc. by reinvesting premiums from insurance units, said low bond yields have hurt the prospects of that strategy.

A Leak Wounded This Company. Fighting the Feds Finished It Off (Bloomberg)

The first phone call that changed Michael Daugherty’s life came in May 2008. Daugherty was a happy man, running a good business in a nice place. That’s how he talks about it, like the opening five minutes of a movie, setting up how great everything is before disaster strikes. His Atlanta-based company, LabMD, tested blood, urine, and tissue samples for urologists, and had about 30 employees and $4 million in annual sales.

The market's most crowded trades could be causing dangerous bubbles (Business Insider)

The market may be blowing up some bubbles through excessive crowding.

Screen Shot 2016 04 29 at 3.35.09 PM

In an Age of Privilege, Not Everyone Is in the Same Boat (NY Times)

Behind a locked door aboard Norwegian Cruise Line’s newest ship is a world most of the vessel’s 4,200 passengers will never see. And that is exactly the point.

In the Haven, as this ship within a ship is called, about 275 elite guests enjoy not only a concierge and 24-hour butler service, but also a private pool, sun deck and restaurant, creating an oasis free from the crowds elsewhere on the Norwegian Escape.

Wall Street not rewarding low-expectation earnings beats (Market Watch)

Earnings beats this season have been cheapened, with lower-than-usual expectations making for little fanfare with investors when companies top the Wall Street consensus.

IBM is jumping in on the hottest trend in enterprise tech—blockchain.IBM is betting big on blockchain (Quartz)

Large businesses (especially those in financial services) have been trying to figure out how they can tap into the blockchain, the technology underpinning the bitcoin cryptocurrency. They’re intrigued by the possibilities of a transparent and cheap ledger system capable of creating an immutable record of transactions


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Indiana Hail Mary Pass Coming Up

Courtesy of Mish.

The last possible chance for Ted Cruz to stop Donald Trump is the May 3 primary in Indiana.

Cruz is pulling out all the stops, but even if Cruz wins Indiana, he may still be too late.

The Wall Street Journal reports Ted Cruz Makes His Last Stand in Indiana.

Sen. Ted Cruz, in a last-ditch effort to derail Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump, is trying to marshal support from governors, former rivals and other anti-Trump Republicans in advance of the make-or-break primary in Indiana Tuesday.

With polls showing him lagging behind the New York businessman in the Hoosier state, the Texas senator talked up the somewhat equivocal support he received from Indiana Gov. Mike Pence on Friday.

Mr. Pence said on an Indianapolis talk-radio show that he would vote for Mr. Cruz because he is “a principled conservative who has dedicated his career to advocating the Reagan agenda.” But then, Mr. Pence added, “I particularly want to commend Donald Trump, who I think has given voice to the frustration of millions of working Americans.”

Earlier this week, Mr. Cruz tried to coordinate strategy with his other remaining GOP presidential rival, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, and took the extraordinary step of naming Carly Fiorina as his running mate a day after he lost to Mr. Trump by a landslide in primaries in five Northeastern states on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Mr. Cruz’s onetime rival, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, this week repeated his call for Republicans to vote for Mr. Cruz.

To some Republicans, it was a week that amounted to a series of Hail Mary passes by a candidate running out of time. “Cruz is so desperate that he is throwing everything—including the kitchen sink and the Indiana Old Oaken Bucket—at Trump,” said Rick Hohlt, a GOP fundraiser who is moving toward supporting Mr. Trump, referring to a college football trophy.

Indiana Polls

Indiana polls 2016-04-30

Only the earliest poll that Has Cruz winning, and by an amazing percentage. It’s safe to discard that poll as complete nonsense.

Nate Silver did essentially that as noted by the weighting at 0.15.

The most recent poll has Trump as a 9 point favorite. Curiously, Nate Silver reduced Trump’s odds of winning following that poll.


Continue reading here…





Young Bulls And Old Bears

 

Young Bulls And Old Bears

Courtesy of , The Irrelevant Investor

“Two things have always been true about human beings. One, the world is always getting better. Two, the people living at that time think it’s getting worse” – Penn Jillette

What do Bill Gross, Sam Zell, Jeremy Grantham and Carl Icahn have in common? They’re all old, they’ve all had brilliant careers, and they’re all bearish on the stock market.

Whether it be in music or in stocks, the prior generation never thinks “kids” will ever measure up. Even Benjamin Graham- the man who basically invented value investing- fell victim to the “get off my lawn syndrome.”

From Roger Lowenstein’s Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist. 

I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis in order to find superior value opportunities. This was a rewarding activity, say, 40 years ago, when our textbook “Graham & Dodd” was first published; but the situation has changed.

Young bulls and old bears is as old as the hills. In Ten Years In Wall Street, which was published in 1870, William Worthington Fowler wrote “Wall Street operators commence their career as bulls, and finish it as bears.”

It’s tough to pin down the root cause of this metamorphosis, but get used to it. The old man screaming “the world is going to end” has always been here and he always will be.

Via Pixabay.





The Real Story Behind The True Magnitude Of The New Home Sales Collapse

Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner, writing at Contra Corner

Comparing the growth in the number of full time jobs versus the growth in new home sales starkly illustrates both the horrible quality of the new jobs, and how badly ZIRP has served the US economy.

Growth in new home sales has always been dependent on growth in full time jobs. For 38 years until the housing bubble peaked in 2006, home sales and full time jobs always trended together, subject to normal cyclical swings. With the exception of 1981-83 when Paul Volcker pushed rates into the stratosphere, new home sales always fluctuated between 550 and 1,100 sales per million full time workers in the month of March.

New Home Sales and Full Time Jobs - Click to enlarge

That correlation broke in the housing crash of 2008-09 when sales fell to a low

But in the housing crash in 2007-09 sales fell to a low of 276 per million full time workers. Since then the number of full time jobs has recovered to greater than the peak reached in 2007. In spite of that, new home sales per million workers remain at depression levels.

With 30 year mortgage rates now at 3.6% sales are lower today than they were when mortgage rates were above 17% in 1982. Sales have never reached 400 sales per million workers in spite of the recovery in the number of jobs, in spite of ZIRP, in spite of mortgage rates often under 4%.

ZIRP has actually made the problem worse. It has caused raging housing inflation which has caused median monthly mortgage payments for new homes to rise by 20% since 2009. ZIRP has enabled corporate CEOs to game the stock market to massively increase their own pay while encouraging them to cut worker salaries and shift higher paying jobs overseas. That leaves the US economy to create only low skill, low pay jobs that do not pay enough for workers to be able to purchase new homes.

The perverse incentives of ZIRP are why the housing industry languishes at depression levels.





Shame Shame Hypocrisy: U.S. Chides Five Economic Powers Over Policies

Courtesy of Mish.

The US continually fails to look into the mirror while pointing a finger at others.

With remarkable hypocrisy, the US Treasury Cites China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Germany for policies it says threaten to damage U.S. and global economy.

Name and Shame

Please consider U.S. Chides Five Economic Powers Over Policies.

The Obama administration delivered a shot across the bow to Asia’s leading exporters and Germany for their economic policies and warned that a number of major economies around the globe could face intense pressure to engage in currency interventions to counter slow growth.

The U.S. Treasury Department, in its semiannual currency report to Congress, called out China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Germany for relying on policies it says threaten to damage the U.S. and the global economy.

The countries are cited in a new name-and-shame list that can trigger sanctions against offending trade partners under fresh powers Congress granted last year to address economic policies that threaten U.S. industries.

Over the past two decades, for example, many U.S. officials have accused China of using an undervalued currency to bolster its manufacturing sector. A cheaper currency makes products cheaper overseas.

U.S. officials are increasingly concerned other countries aren’t doing enough to boost demand at home, relying too heavily on exports to bolster growth.

Counting on cheap currencies as a shortcut to boosting exports can create risks across the global economy, as nations fight to stay ahead of their competitors.

Barf Bag

Please throw me a barf bag.

Except for Japan, the US was the first at QE and the first to slash and hold interest rates at ridiculous levels.

The US sponsored a global asset boom in emerging markets, sinking Brazil in the wake.


Continue reading here…





Morning Reads: Kochs Try to Make Dark Money Darker; The Devil and John Boehner

 

Morning Reads: Kochs Try to Make Dark Money Darker; The Devil and John Boehner

Courtesy of BillMoyers.com

Dark money gets darker --> Paul Blumenthal at The Huffington Post: "Republicans in Congress are trying to decrease the already scant amount of disclosure for politically-active nonprofits — known as dark money groups. The legislative effort is unsurprisingly supported by the main political arm of the billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch." The bill workings its way through Congress would "eliminate the requirement for nonprofits to make a non-public disclosure of their donors to the IRS when they file their annual tax forms. The donor disclosures — known as the Schedule B report — are not released to the public, but the list of donation amounts with the donor names redacted are released."

And, at The American Prospect, Justin Miller notes the irony of Charles Koch denouncing political spending on television while his organizations lobby for legislation making it easier to spend, with less disclosure.

And also: The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), that secretive group promoting policies backed by the Koch network, will begin its spring task force meeting in Pittsburgh a week from today. Mary Bottari of the Center for Media and Democracy, a progressive watchdog organization that tracks ALEC, outlines some items on the agenda, including weakening workers comp laws, privatizing public schools and an amendment to the constitution requiring a balanced budget, which could effectively end Social Security and Medicare as they exist today.

Another hospital attack --> Doctors Without Borders (Medecins Sans Frontieres) reports that on Wednesday night an airstrke destroyed their hospital in Aleppo, Syria, killing "at least 14 people, including at least two doctors." Other estimates of deaths are as high as 50 or more. Secretary of State John Kerry condemned the bombing and said, "It appears to have been a deliberate strike on a known medical facility and follows the Assad regime's appalling record of striking such facilities and first responders. These strikes have killed hundreds of innocent Syrians."

Meanwhile, W.J. Hennigan at the Los Angeles Times reports, "The Pentagon has disciplined 16 service members for mistakes that led to the deadly airstrike on a Doctors Without Borders hospital in northern Afghanistan last fall, but no one will face criminal charges… The…
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The Cult Of Central Banking Is Dead In The Water

Courtesy of David Stockman of Contra Corner

The Fed has been sitting on the funds rate like some monetary mother hen since December 2008. Once it punts again at the June meeting owing to Brexit worries it will have effectively pegged money market rates at the zero bound for 90 straight months.

There has never been a time in financial history when anything close to this happened, including the 1930s. Nor was interest-free money for eight years running ever even imagined in the entire history of monetary thought.

So where’s the fire? What monumental emergency justifies this resort to radical monetary intrusion and repression?

Alas, there is none. And that’s as in nichts, nada, nope, nothing!

There is a structural growth problem, of course. But it has absolutely nothing to do with monetary policy; and it can’t be fixed with cheap money and more debt, anyway.

By contrast, there is no inflation deficiency—–even by the Fed’s preferred measure. Indeed, the very idea of a central bank pumping furiously to generate more inflation comes straight from the archives of crank economics.

The following two graphs dramatize the cargo cult essence of today’s Keynesian central banking regime. Since the year 2000 when monetary repression began in earnest, the balance sheet of the Fed has risen by 800%, while the amount of labor hours used in the US economy has increased by 2%.

At a ratio of 400:1 you can’t even try to argue the counterfactual. That is, there is no amount of money printing that could have ameliorated the “no growth” economy symbolized by flat-lining labor hours.

Owing to the recency bias that dominates mainstream news and commentary, the massive expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet depicted above goes unnoted and unremarked, as if it were always part of the financial landscape. In fact, however, it is something radically new under the sun; it’s the footprint of a monetary fraud breathtaking in its magnitude.

In essence, during the last 15 years the Fed has gifted the US economy with a $4 trillion free lunch. Uncle Sam bought $4 trillion worth of weapons, highways, government salaries and contractual services but did not pay for them by extracting an equal amount of financing from taxes or tapping the private savings pool, and thereby “crowding out” other…
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The Endgame of 2016′s Anti-Establishment Politics

 

The Endgame of 2016′s Anti-Establishment Politics

Courtesy of Robert Reich

Will Bernie Sanders’s supporters rally behind Hillary Clinton if she gets the nomination? Likewise, if Donald Trump is denied the Republican nomination, will his supporters back whoever gets the Republican nod?

If 2008 is any guide, the answer is unambiguously yes to both. About 90 percent of people who backed Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries that year ended up supporting Barack Obama in the general election. About the same percent of Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney backers came around to supporting John McCain.

But 2008 may not be a good guide to the 2016 election, whose most conspicuous feature is furious antipathy to the political establishment.

Outsiders and mavericks are often attractive to an American electorate chronically suspicious of political insiders, but the anti-establishment sentiments unleashed this election year of a different magnitude. The Trump and Sanders candidacies are both dramatic repudiations of politics as usual.

If Hillary Clinton is perceived to have won the Democratic primary because of insider “superdelegates” and contests closed to independents, it may confirm for hardcore Bernie supporters the systemic political corruption Sanders has been railing against.

Similarly, if the Republican Party ends up nominating someone other than Trump who hasn’t attracted nearly the votes than he has, it may be viewed as proof of Trump’s argument that the Republican Party is corrupt.  

Many Sanders supporters will gravitate to Hillary Clinton nonetheless out of repulsion toward the Republican candidate, especially if it’s Donald Trump. Likewise, if Trump loses his bid for the nomination, many of his supporters will vote Republican in any event, particularly if the Democratic nominee is Hillary Clinton.

But, unlike previous elections, a good number may simply decide to sit out the election because of their even greater repulsion toward politics as usual – and the conviction it’s rigged by the establishment for its own benefit.

That conviction wasn’t present in the 2008 election. It emerged later, starting in the 2008 financial crisis, when the government bailed out the biggest Wall Street banks while letting underwater homeowners drown. 

Both the Tea Party movement and Occupy were angry responses – Tea Partiers apoplectic about…
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Zero Hedge

"The Situation In Iraq Has Become Very Dangerous"- Iraq PM Orders Arrests As Mass Protests Continue

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Following yesterday's dramatic escalation in Iraq's suddenly very unstable political situation, when Beghdad was put under a state of emergency after supporters of popular Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr breached the heavily fortified Green Zone and stormed both the parliament and government offices - an event which we dubbed the collapse of the US-created political system in Iraq - the situation has continued to deteriorate. 

Protesters reached the cabinet headquarters inside the Green Zone, storming th...



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ValueWalk

Berkshire Hathaway 2016 Meeting - Resources And Highlights

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

We are going to have a TON of coverage on the annual meeting but in the meantime I wanted to put some of the best material and coverage I have seen on the meeting – I hope I do a decent job

Get The Full Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

Get The Full Warren Buffett Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Warren Buffett in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

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Phil's Favorites

Silver Flushes Secret Sauce Down Toilet, Now Projects Trump has 69% Chance

Courtesy of Mish.

Just yesterday Nate Silver projected Ted Cruz had a 65% chance of Cruz winning despite the fact that the five most recent polls all had Donald Trump winning.

Today Silver flushed his secret sauce down the toilet, where it belonged all along.

Hail Mary Pass Revisited

This is what things looked like to Silver yesterday as I commented in Indiana Hail Mary Pass Coming Up.

Indiana Polls Plus

The only way that makes any sense is if Silver believes every poll is extremely heavily biased in favor of Trump and s...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Buffett Says Bonds Unattractive, If Not Terrible for Reinsurers (Bloomberg)

Warren Buffett, who built Berkshire Hathaway Inc. by reinvesting premiums from insurance units, said low bond yields have hurt the prospects of that strategy.

A Leak Wounded This Company. Fighting the Feds Finished It Off (Bloomberg)

The first phone call that changed Michael Daugherty’s life came in May 2008. Daugherty was a happy man, running a good business in a nice place. That’s how he talks about it, like the opening five minutes of a movie, setting up how...



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Chart School

First Majastic Silver Wyckoff Friendly

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Sometimes is just works! Wyckoff logic is excellent when all the evidence supports your view.

The traditional Wyckoff logic traders will see the Wyckoff accumulation in this stock. Notice the NetVolume divergence with price, very telling. Point and Figure chart showing off an excellent 'CAUSE', that exploded into a fantastic 'EFFECT'. Some times winning is just too easy!


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



PnF Chart, love the 'CAUSE' that was the base for the 'EFFECT'

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



NOTE: readthe...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq 100- Potentially Very Dangerous Pattern!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

This chart looks at the Nasdaq 100 index over the past 10-years.

A potential “Head & Shoulders” (H&S) topping pattern could be in play, highlighted in red.

Even if this is NOT an H&S topping pattern, the following situation has me watching Tech very closely; the index broke 5-year rising support line (A) last fall and the rally over the past couple of months has it kissing the underside of lines (A) and (B) at (1).

The NDX “Kissed” the underside of dual resistance of late and has turn...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

PRGO, VRX and an Overpriced Papa

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

By Ilene 

Remember this? It was Monday. PRGO is down from around $130 to under $100 since I started following it LAST WEEK. That's down almost 25% in a week, and almost 50% in the last year. So I wrote, 

"Perrigo CEO Joseph Papa leaves Perrigo (PRGO) to lead Valeant (VRX) while PRGO issues a warning about missing earnings expectations. Not surprisingly, PRGO stock plummeted today. 

Robert Ingram, Chairman of the [Valeant] Board, stated, "The Board has conducted a thorough search process and believes that Joe is the ideal leader for Valeant at this time. He has a strong shareholder orientation,...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 25th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin About To Soar?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Back on September 2, 2015 when bitcoin was trading at $230, we laid out the simplest and most fundamental reason why, irrelevant of one's ideological persuasion with "alternative" or digital currency - bitcoin would soar.

it was earlier this summer when the digital currency, which can bypass capital controls and national borders with the click of a button, surged on Grexit concerns and fears a Drachma return would crush the savings of an entire nation. Since then, BTC has dropped (in no small part as a result of the ...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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