The only way that makes any sense is if Silver believes every poll is extremely heavily biased in favor of Trump and something else in is play (like a deal that fell apart the moment it was announced between Kasich and Cruz).
Polls Only: Trump 70%
Polls Plus: Cruz 65%
My comment yesterday was “I find that preposterous even if Cruz does manage to win Indiana.”
Nearly 75% of business and academic economists polled by The Wall Street Journal in recent days said the Fed would next raise its benchmark federal-funds rate at its June 14-15 policy meeting, down slightly from 76% in the Journal’s March survey.
Forecasters assigned minimal chances to the Fed acting at its policy meeting in less than three weeks’ time. Just one economist in the survey predicted Fed officials would lift rates at the April 26-27 meeting, compared with four in the March survey. The Journal surveyed 69 economists Friday through Tuesday, though not every respondent answered every question.
Just one economist — Bricklin Dwyer of BNP Paribas — said officials would wait until after 2017 to raise rates, while Vanderbilt University professor J. Dewey Daane said he wasn’t expecting another rate increase.
The first phone call that changed Michael Daugherty’s life came in May 2008. Daugherty was a happy man, running a good business in a nice place. That’s how he talks about it, like the opening five minutes of a movie, setting up how great everything is before disaster strikes. His Atlanta-based company, LabMD, tested blood, urine, and tissue samples for urologists, and had about 30 employees and $4 million in annual sales.
Behind a locked door aboard Norwegian Cruise Line’s newest ship is a world most of the vessel’s 4,200 passengers will never see. And that is exactly the point.
In the Haven, as this ship within a ship is called, about 275 elite guests enjoy not only a concierge and 24-hour butler service, but also a private pool, sun deck and restaurant, creating an oasis free from the crowds elsewhere on the Norwegian Escape.
Large businesses (especially those in financial services) have been trying to figure out how they can tap into the blockchain, the technology underpinning the bitcoin cryptocurrency. They’re intrigued by the possibilities of a transparent and cheap ledger system capable of creating an immutable record of transactions
Sen. Ted Cruz, in a last-ditch effort to derail Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump, is trying to marshal support from governors, former rivals and other anti-Trump Republicans in advance of the make-or-break primary in Indiana Tuesday.
With polls showing him lagging behind the New York businessman in the Hoosier state, the Texas senator talked up the somewhat equivocal support he received from Indiana Gov. Mike Pence on Friday.
Mr. Pence said on an Indianapolis talk-radio show that he would vote for Mr. Cruz because he is “a principled conservative who has dedicated his career to advocating the Reagan agenda.” But then, Mr. Pence added, “I particularly want to commend Donald Trump, who I think has given voice to the frustration of millions of working Americans.”
Earlier this week, Mr. Cruz tried to coordinate strategy with his other remaining GOP presidential rival, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, and took the extraordinary step of naming Carly Fiorina as his running mate a day after he lost to Mr. Trump by a landslide in primaries in five Northeastern states on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Mr. Cruz’s onetime rival, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, this week repeated his call for Republicans to vote for Mr. Cruz.
To some Republicans, it was a week that amounted to a series of Hail Mary passes by a candidate running out of time. “Cruz is so desperate that he is throwing everything—including the kitchen sink and the Indiana Old Oaken Bucket—at Trump,” said Rick Hohlt, a GOP fundraiser who is moving toward supporting Mr. Trump, referring to a college football trophy.
Only the earliest poll that Has Cruz winning, and by an amazing percentage. It’s safe to discard that poll as complete nonsense.
Nate Silver did essentially that as noted by the weighting at 0.15.
The most recent poll has Trump as a 9 point favorite. Curiously, Nate Silver reduced Trump’s odds of winning following that poll.
“Two things have always been true about human beings. One, the world is always getting better. Two, the people living at that time think it’s getting worse” – Penn Jillette
What do Bill Gross, Sam Zell, Jeremy Grantham and Carl Icahn have in common? They’re all old, they’ve all had brilliant careers, and they’re all bearish on the stock market.
Whether it be in music or in stocks, the prior generation never thinks “kids” will ever measure up. Even Benjamin Graham- the man who basically invented value investing- fell victim to the “get off my lawn syndrome.”
From Roger Lowenstein’s Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist.
I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis in order to find superior value opportunities. This was a rewarding activity, say, 40 years ago, when our textbook “Graham & Dodd” was first published; but the situation has changed.
Young bulls and old bears is as old as the hills. In Ten Years In Wall Street, which was published in 1870, William Worthington Fowler wrote “Wall Street operators commence their career as bulls, and finish it as bears.”
It’s tough to pin down the root cause of this metamorphosis, but get used to it. The old man screaming “the world is going to end” has always been here and he always will be.
Comparing the growth in the number of full time jobs versus the growth in new home sales starkly illustrates both the horrible quality of the new jobs, and how badly ZIRP has served the US economy.
Growth in new home sales has always been dependent on growth in full time jobs. For 38 years until the housing bubble peaked in 2006, home sales and full time jobs always trended together, subject to normal cyclical swings. With the exception of 1981-83 when Paul Volcker pushed rates into the stratosphere, new home sales always fluctuated between 550 and 1,100 sales per million full time workers in the month of March.
That correlation broke in the housing crash of 2008-09 when sales fell to a low
But in the housing crash in 2007-09 sales fell to a low of 276 per million full time workers. Since then the number of full time jobs has recovered to greater than the peak reached in 2007. In spite of that, new home sales per million workers remain at depression levels.
With 30 year mortgage rates now at 3.6% sales are lower today than they were when mortgage rates were above 17% in 1982. Sales have never reached 400 sales per million workers in spite of the recovery in the number of jobs, in spite of ZIRP, in spite of mortgage rates often under 4%.
ZIRP has actually made the problem worse. It has caused raging housing inflation which has caused median monthly mortgage payments for new homes to rise by 20% since 2009. ZIRP has enabled corporate CEOs to game the stock market to massively increase their own pay while encouraging them to cut worker salaries and shift higher paying jobs overseas. That leaves the US economy to create only low skill, low pay jobs that do not pay enough for workers to be able to purchase new homes.
The perverse incentives of ZIRP are why the housing industry languishes at depression levels.
The Obama administration delivered a shot across the bow to Asia’s leading exporters and Germany for their economic policies and warned that a number of major economies around the globe could face intense pressure to engage in currency interventions to counter slow growth.
The U.S. Treasury Department, in its semiannual currency report to Congress, called out China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Germany for relying on policies it says threaten to damage the U.S. and the global economy.
The countries are cited in a new name-and-shame list that can trigger sanctions against offending trade partners under fresh powers Congress granted last year to address economic policies that threaten U.S. industries.
Over the past two decades, for example, many U.S. officials have accused China of using an undervalued currency to bolster its manufacturing sector. A cheaper currency makes products cheaper overseas.
U.S. officials are increasingly concerned other countries aren’t doing enough to boost demand at home, relying too heavily on exports to bolster growth.
Counting on cheap currencies as a shortcut to boosting exports can create risks across the global economy, as nations fight to stay ahead of their competitors.
Please throw me a barf bag.
Except for Japan, the US was the first at QE and the first to slash and hold interest rates at ridiculous levels.
The US sponsored a global asset boom in emerging markets, sinking Brazil in the wake.
Dark money gets darker --> Paul Blumenthal at The Huffington Post: "Republicans in Congress are trying to decrease the already scant amount of disclosure for politically-active nonprofits — known as dark money groups. The legislative effort is unsurprisingly supported by the main political arm of the billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch." The bill workings its way through Congress would "eliminate the requirement for nonprofits to make a non-public disclosure of their donors to the IRS when they file their annual tax forms. The donor disclosures — known as the Schedule B report — are not released to the public, but the list of donation amounts with the donor names redacted are released."
And also: The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), that secretive group promoting policies backed by the Koch network, will begin its spring task force meeting in Pittsburgh a week from today. Mary Bottari of the Center for Media and Democracy, a progressive watchdog organization that tracks ALEC, outlines some items on the agenda, including weakening workers comp laws, privatizing public schools and an amendment to the constitution requiring a balanced budget, which could effectively end Social Security and Medicare as they exist today.
Another hospital attack --> Doctors Without Borders (Medecins Sans Frontieres) reports that on Wednesday night an airstrke destroyed their hospital in Aleppo, Syria, killing "at least 14 people, including at least two doctors." Other estimates of deaths are as high as 50 or more. Secretary of State John Kerry condemned the bombing and said, "It appears to have been a deliberate strike on a known medical facility and follows the Assad regime's appalling record of striking such facilities and first responders. These strikes have killed hundreds of innocent Syrians."
Meanwhile, W.J. Hennigan at the Los Angeles Times reports, "The Pentagon has disciplined 16 service members for mistakes that led to the deadly airstrike on a Doctors Without Borders hospital in northern Afghanistan last fall, but no one will face criminal charges… The…
The Fed has been sitting on the funds rate like some monetary mother hen since December 2008. Once it punts again at the June meeting owing to Brexit worries it will have effectively pegged money market rates at the zero bound for 90 straight months.
There has never been a time in financial history when anything close to this happened, including the 1930s. Nor was interest-free money for eight years running ever even imagined in the entire history of monetary thought.
So where’s the fire? What monumental emergency justifies this resort to radical monetary intrusion and repression?
Alas, there is none. And that’s as in nichts, nada, nope, nothing!
There is a structural growth problem, of course. But it has absolutely nothing to do with monetary policy; and it can’t be fixed with cheap money and more debt, anyway.
By contrast, there is no inflation deficiency—–even by the Fed’s preferred measure. Indeed, the very idea of a central bank pumping furiously to generate more inflation comes straight from the archives of crank economics.
The following two graphs dramatize the cargo cult essence of today’s Keynesian central banking regime. Since the year 2000 when monetary repression began in earnest, the balance sheet of the Fed has risen by 800%, while the amount of labor hours used in the US economy has increased by 2%.
At a ratio of 400:1 you can’t even try to argue the counterfactual. That is, there is no amount of money printing that could have ameliorated the “no growth” economy symbolized by flat-lining labor hours.
Owing to the recency bias that dominates mainstream news and commentary, the massive expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet depicted above goes unnoted and unremarked, as if it were always part of the financial landscape. In fact, however, it is something radically new under the sun; it’s the footprint of a monetary fraud breathtaking in its magnitude.
In essence, during the last 15 years the Fed has gifted the US economy with a $4 trillion free lunch. Uncle Sam bought $4 trillion worth of weapons, highways, government salaries and contractual services but did not pay for them by extracting an equal amount of financing from taxes or tapping the private savings pool, and thereby “crowding out” other…
Will Bernie Sanders’s supporters rally behind Hillary Clinton if she gets the nomination? Likewise, if Donald Trump is denied the Republican nomination, will his supporters back whoever gets the Republican nod?
If 2008 is any guide, the answer is unambiguously yes to both. About 90 percent of people who backed Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries that year ended up supporting Barack Obama in the general election. About the same percent of Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney backers came around to supporting John McCain.
But 2008 may not be a good guide to the 2016 election, whose most conspicuous feature is furious antipathy to the political establishment.
Outsiders and mavericks are often attractive to an American electorate chronically suspicious of political insiders, but the anti-establishment sentiments unleashed this election year of a different magnitude. The Trump and Sanders candidacies are both dramatic repudiations of politics as usual.
If Hillary Clinton is perceived to have won the Democratic primary because of insider “superdelegates” and contests closed to independents, it may confirm for hardcore Bernie supporters the systemic political corruption Sanders has been railing against.
Similarly, if the Republican Party ends up nominating someone other than Trump who hasn’t attracted nearly the votes than he has, it may be viewed as proof of Trump’s argument that the Republican Party is corrupt.
Many Sanders supporters will gravitate to Hillary Clinton nonetheless out of repulsion toward the Republican candidate, especially if it’s Donald Trump. Likewise, if Trump loses his bid for the nomination, many of his supporters will vote Republican in any event, particularly if the Democratic nominee is Hillary Clinton.
But, unlike previous elections, a good number may simply decide to sit out the election because of their even greater repulsion toward politics as usual – and the conviction it’s rigged by the establishment for its own benefit.
That conviction wasn’t present in the 2008 election. It emerged later, starting in the 2008 financial crisis, when the government bailed out the biggest Wall Street banks while letting underwater homeowners drown.
Both the Tea Party movement and Occupy were angry responses – Tea Partiers apoplectic about…
Following yesterday's dramatic escalation in Iraq's suddenly very unstable political situation, when Beghdad was put under a state of emergency after supporters of popular Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr breached the heavily fortified Green Zone and stormed both the parliament and government offices - an event which we dubbed the collapse of the US-created political system in Iraq - the situation has continued to deteriorate.
Protesters reached the cabinet headquarters inside the Green Zone, storming th...
The first phone call that changed Michael Daugherty’s life came in May 2008. Daugherty was a happy man, running a good business in a nice place. That’s how he talks about it, like the opening five minutes of a movie, setting up how...
Sometimes is just works! Wyckoff logic is excellent when all the evidence supports your view.
The traditional Wyckoff logic traders will see the Wyckoff accumulation in this stock. Notice the NetVolume divergence with price, very telling. Point and Figure chart showing off an excellent 'CAUSE', that exploded into a fantastic 'EFFECT'. Some times winning is just too easy!
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PnF Chart, love the 'CAUSE' that was the base for the 'EFFECT'
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This chart looks at the Nasdaq 100 index over the past 10-years.
A potential “Head & Shoulders” (H&S) topping pattern could be in play, highlighted in red.
Even if this is NOT an H&S topping pattern, the following situation has me watching Tech very closely; the index broke 5-year rising support line (A) last fall and the rally over the past couple of months has it kissing the underside of lines (A) and (B) at (1).
The NDX “Kissed” the underside of dual resistance of late and has turn...
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Remember this? It was Monday. PRGO is down from around $130 to under $100 since I started following it LAST WEEK. That's down almost 25% in a week, and almost 50% in the last year. So I wrote,
"Perrigo CEO Joseph Papa leaves Perrigo (PRGO) to lead Valeant (VRX) while PRGO issues a warning about missing earnings expectations. Not surprisingly, PRGO stock plummeted today.
Robert Ingram, Chairman of the [Valeant] Board, stated, "The Board has conducted a thorough search process and believes that Joe is the ideal leader for Valeant at this time. He has a strong shareholder orientation,...
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
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Back on September 2, 2015 when bitcoin was trading at $230, we laid out the simplest and most fundamental reason why, irrelevant of one's ideological persuasion with "alternative" or digital currency - bitcoin would soar.
it was earlier this summer when the digital currency, which can bypass capital controls and national borders with the click of a button, surged on Grexit concerns and fears a Drachma return would crush the savings of an entire nation. Since then, BTC has dropped (in no small part as a result of the ...
Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,
The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now.
And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now.
Phil writes back,
I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at email@example.com with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
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