Archive for the ‘Topic’ Category

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Financial Markets and Economy

Why Brexit Really Is a Big Deal for the U.S. Economy (Time)

Politicians and technocrats of all stripes are trying to reassure Americans that Britain’s vote last week to leave the EU won’t affect them economically. They are wrong.

Brexit has already caused a number of dominos to fall

World leaders and economic experts react: Brexit is 'as significant as post-9/11' (Business Insider)

Global leaders, CEOs, and other influential figures have gathered in China for the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting of the New Champions, and Britain's recent decision to leave the EU was all anyone could talk about.

U.K. 10-Year Yield Drops Below 1% as Brexit Woes Mount (Bloomberg)

U.K. government bonds surged for a second day, sending yields below 1 percent for the first time on record, as the aftershocks of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union reverberated across financial markets. The securities are being supported by wagers that a worsening U.K. outlook will prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates to help protect the economy.

Bears Are Back as Valeant Shorts Surge Most Since April (Bloomberg)

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. bears are betting the stock has further to fall. Last week, short interest as a percentage of shares outstanding spiked almost a full percentage point in one day.

Brexit has wiped $2 trillion (and counting) off global stock markets (Quartz)

At the start of the week, most global stock markets are down, but they don’t look as bad as they did on Friday, the day after Britain voted to leave the European Union.

Oil prices rise as dollar strengthens in Brexit aftermath (Market Watch)

Oil prices edged higher on Monday as global trading reopened for the week following the U.K.’s unexpected decision to leave the European Union on Friday.

China central bank
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Understanding Brexit: The Powerless Press Their Thumb In The Eye Of The Power Elite

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith at OfTwoMinds

The premier strategy for retaining power is to give the powerless a carefully managed illusion of decision-making and autonomy. Having a say over one's life and choices is called agency, and it is the illusion of agency that makes democracy such a powerful tool of control.

The second most effective means of maintaining power is to limit the choices offered the powerless. Offering the powerless false choices, i.e. the choice between two functionally equivalent options, provides the comforting illusion of agency while insuring that the status quo Power Elites remains in charge, regardless of the choice made by the powerless.

For example, give the powerless a choice between Tweedle-Dum (Republicans/Tories) and Tweedle-Dee (Democrats/Labour). Whomever they elect, the self-serving Power Elite of entrenched interests and wealth remains firmly in charge, for the Power Elite speaks with one voice through two mouths, one Establishment Democrat/Labour, the other Establishment Republican/Tory.

If the powerless get restless, make them fearful. This is easily managed via external threats and dramatic predictions of economic doom should the Power Elite be threatened.

If fear has lost its edge due to over-use, then whip up social controversies that divide and conquer the powerless. Divisive, hot-button social controversies are easily staged and media-managed; these serve to distract and fragment the powerless in endless culture wars.

The powerless get very few opportunities to express their dissatisfaction with their gradual impoverishment and powerlessness, and few opportunities to register their disapproval of the Power Elite. They know complaints go nowhere, petitions are ignored, and demonstrations accomplish nothing.

So when a rare chance to stick a thumb in the eye of the Power Elite comes along, they take it. The Brexit vote was just such an opportunity.

Though the benefits that flowed from membership in the European Union may well have been substantial, many people did not have any direct experience of those benefits, which largely flowed to a handful of privileged classes: young, well-educated workers in finance, people who bought housing in London before the huge run-up in valuations, and workers providing services to the wealthy foreigners and highly paid financial professionals.

Many households have seen their quality of life and living standards


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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. Stock Futures Retreat After S&P 500 Erased 2016 Gain Friday (Bloomberg)

The selling continued in American stocks after investors suffered the worst day since August on Friday following the U.K. referendum.

Global Economy Week Ahead: Summits in Europe, Manufacturing Data (Wall Street Journal)

The British vote to leave the European Union is likely to dominate summits of European heads of government and global central bankers this week. Here is a look at the big events.

In the Face of Turmoil, BIS Warns of Overreacting to Brexit (Bloomberg)

Monetary policy is so stretched worldwide that a radical re-think about how support is provided to the economy is needed, even at a time when the U.K.’s exit from the European Union risks placing fresh demands on central banks.

The weekend is over and stocks are falling (Business Insider)

The weekend is over, and stocks are falling all over again.

Yen Brexit Surge Seen Testing 95 in Threat to BOJ Stimulus Goals (Bloomberg)

When Mohamed El-Erian called the yen at 106 per dollar “a total nightmare” for Japan this month, few envisaged it would get even worse so quickly.

Oil extends decline as Brexit concerns linger (Business Insider)

Oil prices dropped around half a percent on Monday, extending sharp declines after Britain's vote to leave the European Union sparked a sharp selloff in global markets on Friday amid concerns over risk aversion.

If you want to know how much to worry about Brexit, watch this currency (Quartz)

Mexico’s currency has the unenviable role of serving as the bellwether for volatility in the world’s emerging markets. And Brexit is sending it for a tumble.

Kerry Urges Britain and EU to Cooperate to Calm Markets (Bloomberg)

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry urged Britain and the European Union to work together to


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Why Did the UK Enter the EU in the First Place?

Courtesy of Mish.

Looking back, one really has to wonder why the UK subjected itself to all the inane EU nannycrat rules and regulations in the first place.

I can explain. Many readers sent me this explanation, but I also used it before on my blog long ago.

Please consider this clip from the British TV show “Yes Minister”.

The clip it is amazingly funny. Play it.

Union Jack

Email Comments

From Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog.

I recently wrote this to my totally Europhile European email group, which has hedge fund managers, economists, journalists, insurance and pension fund asset managers, and even a few politicians from across Europe (every country from the UK to Latvia has a few people in the group, and a few fund managers from the US, Australia and Israel are also members).

A few days before the Brexit, they had all written paeans on the EU, and expressed both their expectation and hope that the UK would remain, while chiding the “leave” campaign for its intellectual inferiority. I was incredibly busy (still am) and didn’t find the time to properly join the debate. But one day before the referendum I felt I simply had to say SOMETHING to disrupt this love-fest.

So I wrote this (I was very polite, but it was met with speechlessness for a little moment. I did get several very friendly and well thought out replies after a while though. You must understand, these people are my friends, and I like them and they like me, generally. They know of course that my opinions on these things are very different from those of most of the European elite):

Leaving aside the “we’re doing it for peace” argument, which wily EU politicians tacked on out of the blue 40 or 50 years after the EEC was founded in order to cartelize the then state-owned coal and steel industries, what exactly are the advantages of being in the EU? If we want to have free trade, do we really need a bureaucratic Leviathan in Brussels regulating every nook and cranny of our lives? NO. We need the back of a napkin, on which we could write: “Henceforth, there will be no more tariffs between us”.

Today the EU primarily serves a tone-deaf bureaucratic and political class, which


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End of the UK? Poll Shows 59% of Scottish Want to Leave UK

Courtesy of Mish.

In the wake of the Brexit vote, two issues regarding Scotland have arisen.

  1. Can the Scottish parliament veto the referendum?
  2. Will Scotland seek another referendum to leave the UK?

Veto Threat

The BBC reports Nicola Sturgeon says MSPs at Holyrood could veto Brexit

Notes: The Scottish parliament is in the Holyrood section of Edinburgh, the capital of Scotland. MSP stands for members of Scottish parliament. Nicola Sturgeon is leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP).

Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has told the BBC that Holyrood could try to block the UK’s exit from the EU.

SNP leader Ms Sturgeon said that “of course” she would ask MSPs to refuse to give their “legislative consent”.

Constitutional law expert and Conservative MSP Adam Tomkins tweeted that Holyrood had no power to veto the UK’s withdrawal.

Mr Tomkins – who backed the Remain side of the referendum campaign – said that while Holyrood had the power to withhold consent, that was not the same as blocking.

Another Scotland Referendum?

The veto threat is a mirage. What about another referendum?

Scotland had a chance to break away from the UK on September 18, 2014 in a Scottish Independence Referendum.

The vote was 55.3% to stay vs 44.7% to break away. Now Scotland is having second thoughts.


Continue reading here…





Exit Polls Note Even Close: “We Can” Clobbered in Low Turnout; Another Hung Spanish Election

Courtesy of Mish.

Pollsters in Europe must be among the world’s worst. In Spain they cannot even get exit polls correct.

“United We Can” was supposed to soar into second place in Spanish elections. Instead, with 94% of the vote counted, “We Can” has a mere 13% of the vote.

From El Confidencial Live Results.

Another Hung Election

It is impossible for PSOE and “United We Can” to form a coalition.

Result Spanish election rerun:

Left=PSOE+Podemos lost 2 seats

Right=PP+Ciudadanos gained 5

Still no 2-party majority pic.twitter.com/JHG9been16

— Kees van der Leun (@Sustainable2050) June 26, 2016

Possibilities

  1. If either PSOE abstains, the Popular Party (PP) stays in power.
  2. Another election.

The price for abstention could be the removal of acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock


Continue reading here…





Brexit Briefing

 

Brexit Briefing

Courtesy of Wade of Investing Caffeine

Pair of British Briefs

Pair of British Briefs

There is no shortage of Brexit articles, but as I compile information for my monthly newsletter later this week (subscribe at Investing Caffeine – right column), here are some of my favorite links:

1) How to Make Sense of the Brexit Turmoil (FiveThirtyEight)

2) Brexit Meltdown Charts (Ritholtz)

3) House of Commons UK-EU Economic Relations Report (Parliament Research Briefings)

4) What is Article 50 and why is it so central to the Brexit debate? (The Guardian)

5) The Difference Between the EU and Euro Zone (Moody’s)

6) Brexit’s First 100 Days (Bloomberg)

7) Brexit Impact on Wimbledon Paychecks (Fox Sports)

8) Relationship Between the U.K., Britain, England, Great Britain, Ireland, Northern Island, Wales, and British Isles (Project Britain)

9) Brexit Voting Results by Age (Ben Riley-Smith – Twitter)

10) Brexit Impact on Global Economy (Wall Street Journal)

11) Brexit is Not the End of the World (Calafia Beach Pundit)

 

Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®, www.Sidoxia.com

Plan. Invest. Prosper. 





Exit Polls Give Absolute Majority to United We Can + PSOE

Courtesy of Mish.

The nannycrats in Brussels have another thing to worry about today. Exit polls show Mariano Rajoy’s PP party will win the most seats in Spanish elections held today, but Unidos Podemos (United We Can) plus PSOE socialists are likely to achieve an absolute majority.

If the polls are reasonably close, and we will know within hours, the parliament makeup according to El Confidencial26, 2106 is as follows.

Spanish Elections June 26A

There are only two real possibilities now

  1. United We Can plus PSOE form a government
  2. PSOE and Ciudadanos both abstain allowing PP to setup a minority government.

If United We Can comes in with 95+,  it’s possible PP would not have a majority even if PSOE and Ciudadanos both abstain.  The price for such an alliance (if possible) would surely be prime minister Mariano Rajoy’s head.

If these results hold, Mariano Rajoy is toast one way or another.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock


Original article here.





Gold Market Analysis (Video)

Courtesy of EconMatters

We look at the key technical levels in the Gold Market in this video, as an indication of where the Gold Market is likely headed.





More Confusion: EU Tells Cameron To Hurry Up With Article 50 As Merkel Says No Need To Rush

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

While the political chaos slamming the UK over the weekend, will be its own chapter in the history books one day, with UK's dynamic leadership duo of Cameron and Osborne suddenly nowhere to be seen while the Labour party is undergoing a rebellion even as Boris Johnson has yet to make a concerted push to claim the victory the British people unexpectedly handed him, things in Europe are no better. Case in point, Europe's collective (or rather not so much) on the next major catalyst in the UK's exit from the Eurozone, which as we explained previously, is the moment Article 50 is triggered, widely expected to take place some time over the next several months if not much sooner.

According to Reuters, the EU is allegedly interested in a quick and clean divorce, reporting that Britain need not send a formal letter to the European Union to trigger a two-year countdown to its exit from the bloc, EU officials said, implying British Prime Minister David Cameron could start the process when he speaks at a summit on Tuesday.

The potential delay in the triggering of Article 50 has been interpreted by some as a case of Buyer's (or perhaps seller's) remorse, going so far as to suggest that a Boris Johnson cabinet may never invoke it at all, and instead opt to remain in the EU, openly defying the will of the majority.

"'Triggering' … could either be a letter to the president of the European Council or an official statement at a meeting of the European Council duly noted in the official records of the meeting," a spokesman for the council of EU leaders said.

Why does the EU want a quick response? According to a second EU official cited by Reuters, who noted the mounting frustration among leaders with the British prime minister's delay in delivering the formal notification required to launch divorce proceedings, "It doesn't have to be written. He can just say it." Cameron will brief the other 27 national leaders over dinner at a European Council summit in Brussels on Tuesday on the outcome of Thursday's referendum at which Britons voted to leave the EU, prompting him to announce he will


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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - Week of June 27th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Zero Hedge

US Services Economy Disappoints As 'Optimism' Plunges To Record Lows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The June flash Services PMI printed 51.3, flat to May but below 52.0 bounce expectations with both employment down (3rd monthly drop in a row to lowest since Dec 2014) and optimism tumbling - "service providers indicated another drop in confidence regarding the year-ahead business outlook, with the latest reading the weakest since the survey began in late-2009."

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, chief economi...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Why Brexit Really Is a Big Deal for the U.S. Economy (Time)

Politicians and technocrats of all stripes are trying to reassure Americans that Britain’s vote last week to leave the EU won’t affect them economically. They are wrong.

Brexit has already caused a number of dominos to fall

World leaders and economic experts react: Brexit is 'as significant as post-9/11' (B...



more from Paul

Kimble Charting Solutions

Global Leading Indicators, testing 6-year rising support channels

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Long before last weeks Brexit vote, Germany’s DAX index has been an upside and downside global stock market leader, over the past few years. Below looks at the pattern the DAX has created over the past decade.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Since mid 2009 the DAX has remained inside of rising channel (A). The top of this channel was hit in April of 2015. Since hitting rising channel resistance, the DAX has ...



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ValueWalk

Two Centuries of Parasitic Economics

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The work of independent scholar, Basil Al-Nakeeb, ‘Two Centuries of Parasitic Economics: The Struggle for Economic and Political Democracy on the Eve of the Financial Collapse of the West’ walks readers through a chronology of flawed economic thought and the inferior theories produced as a result. But Al-Nakeeb takes his arguments one step further – by proposing an alternative and efficient macroeconomic blueprint built on a foundation of efficient taxes, finance and fair, just political democracy.

Two Centuries of Parasitic Economics: The Struggle for Economic and Political Democracy on the Eve of the Financial Collapse of the West

Basil Al-Nakeeb poses many stark...



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Phil's Favorites

Understanding Brexit: The Powerless Press Their Thumb In The Eye Of The Power Elite

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith at OfTwoMinds

The premier strategy for retaining power is to give the powerless a carefully managed illusion of decision-making and autonomy. Having a say over one's life and choices is called agency, and it is the illusion of agency that makes democracy such a powerful tool of control.

The second most effective means of maintaining power is to limit the choices offered the powerless. Offering the powerless false choices, i.e. the choice between two functionally equivalent options, provides the comforting illusion of agency while insuring that the status quo Power Elites remains in charge, regardless of the choice made by the powerless.

For example, give the powerless a choice between Tweedle-Dum (Republicans/Tories) and Tweedle-Dee (Democrats/Labour). Whomever they elect...



more from Ilene

Chart School

Best Stock Market Indicator Update

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

We continue to receive requests for updates to the "Best Stock Market Indicator", which used to be a regular guest post from John Carlucci. Here is an update of the "Carlucci" indicator along with a summary of John's explanation on how he uses it.

As John described it: "The $OEXA200R (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com used to find the "sweet spot" time period in the market when you have the best chance of making money."

Latest Indicator Position

According to this system, the market ...



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Mapping The Market

Thoughts on Brexit

I have mixed feelings about Brexit today. Clearly the European institution need reforming. The addition of so many countries in the last 20 years has created a top heavy administration. The Euro adds more complexities to the equation as the ECB policies cannot fit every country's problem. On the other hand, a unified Europe has advantages as well – some countries have benefited from the integration.

For Britain, it's hard to say what the final price will be. My guess is that Scotland might now vote for independence as they supported staying in Europe overwhelmingly. Northern Ireland might be tempted to leave as well so possibly RIP UK in the long run. I was talking to some French people and they were saying that now there might be no incentive for France to stop immigrants from crossing over to the UK like they do now and simply allow for travel there and let the UK deal with them. The end game is not clear to anyone at the moment....



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles 10%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One week ago, when bitcoin first crossed above $700 on the seemingly insatiable Chinese buying which we forecast last September (when bitcoin was trading at $230) would take place as a result of China's capital controls (to much pushback by the "mainstream" financial media), we tried to predict what may happen next. We said that "it could go much higher. That said, anyone who bought last September when the digital currency was trading at $230 may be advised to take some profits, and at least make...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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