Archive for the ‘Topic’ Category

Is Anybody NOT Deeper In Debt?

Courtesy of John Rubino.

The New York Federal Reserve just announced that older Americans are carrying more debt than ever before and, believe it or not, spins this as a good thing:

New York Fed Finds Large Increase in Debts Held by Those Over Age 50

(NASDAQ) – Americans in their 50s, 60s and 70s are carrying unprecedented amounts of debt, a shift that reflects both the aging of the baby boomer generation and their greater likelihood of retaining mortgage, auto and student debt at much later ages than previous generations.

The average 65-year-old borrower has 47% more mortgage debt and 29% more auto debt than 65-year-olds had in 2003, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released Friday.

The result: U.S. household debt is vastly different than it was before the financial crisis, when many younger households had taken on large debts they could no longer afford when the bottom fell out of the economy.

The shift represents a “reallocation of debt from young [people], with historically weak repayment, to retirement- aged consumers, with historically strong repayment,” according to New York Fed economist Meta Brown in a presentation of the findings.

Older borrowers have historically been less likely to default on loans and have typically been successful at shrinking their debt balances. But greater borrowing among this age group could become alarming if evidence mounted that large numbers of people were entering retirement with debts they couldn’t manage. So far, that doesn’t appear to be the case. Most of the households with debt also have higher credit scores and more assets than in the past.

“Retirement-aged consumers’ repayment has shown little sign of developing weakness as their balances have grown,” according to Ms. Brown.

An important barometer of household financial health is the percentage of this debt that is in some stage of delinquency, and that percentage has been steadily dropping. Only 2.2% of mortgage debt was in delinquency, the lowest since early 2007. Credit card delinquencies also declined, while auto loan and student loan delinquencies were unchanged.

“The household sector looks much better positioned today than in 2008 to absorb shocks and continue to contribute to the economic expansion,” said


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Banks Tank: Wall Street Is Keeping Too Many Secrets for Its Own Good

Courtesy of Pam Martens.

The Trading Desk at the New York Fed Has Speed Dials to Wall Street Firms and Bloomberg Terminals

The Trading Desk at the New York Fed Has Speed Dials to Wall Street Firms and Bloomberg Terminals

Starting last July, the share prices of the biggest banks on Wall Street have been on a steady downward trajectory. That trend heated up yesterday with Citigroup and Bank of America both dropping over 6 percent by the close of trading. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were down by over 4 percent. All four of the banks set new 12-month lows in intraday trading.

A strong argument can be made that much of the public’s lack of confidence in these complex banking and gambling behemoths is a result of the dark curtain that has been drawn around their operations. Evidence is piling up that government regulators of Wall Street no longer see themselves as the protectors of the people but as the protectors of Wall Street’s secrets.

The American historian, Henry Steele Commager, once wrote that “The generation that made the nation thought secrecy in government one of the instruments of old world tyranny and committed itself to the principle that a democracy cannot function unless people are permitted to know what their government is up to.”

In that vein, on his very first day in office, January 21, 2009, as the U.S. economy was in tatters from the greatest era of Wall Street corruption in the history of the nation, President Obama promised the American people a new era of transparency. Two months later, under the President’s orders, the U.S. Attorney General’s office issued detailed guidelines on how government agencies were to respond to public and press requests for documents under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA).

We’ve been living in a dark hole ever since when it comes to Wall Street.

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Market Analysis – Keep Your Cool

By EconMatters

Always stay calm while others are panicking – especially in financial markets. There is a lot of talking one`s book going on in the markets with incentives to create panic and hysteria in the financial markets with the media the willing accomplice in playing the game. The world is rarely a worst case scenario – that should never be a baseline position. 

 




Why NIRP (Negative Interest Rates) Will Fail Miserably

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith at Of Two Minds

The last hurrah of central banks is the negative interest rate policy--NIRP. The basic idea of NIRP is to punish savers so severely that households and businesses will be compelled to go blow whatever money they have on something--what the money is squandered on is of no importance to central banks.

All that matters is that people and enterprises are forced to spend whatever cash they have rather than "hoard" it, i.e. preserve and conserve their capital.

That this is certifiably insane is self-evident. If an economy depends on bringing future spending into the present by destroying savings, that economy is doomed regardless of NIRP, for eventually the cash runs out and spending declines anyway.

But NIRP will fail completely and totally due to another dynamic-- one I addressed last month in Another Reason Why the Middle Class and the Velocity of Money Are in Terminal Decline. As correspondent Mike Fasano noted, negative interest rates force us to save even more, not less:

"People like me who have saved all their lives realize that they their savings (no matter how much) will never throw off enough money to allow retirement, unless I live off principal. This is especially so since one can reasonably expect social security to phased out, indexed out or dropped altogether. Accordingly, I realize that when I get to the point when I can no longer work, I'll be living off capital and not interest. This is an incentive to keep working and not to spend."

If banks start charging savers interest on their cash, savers will have to save even more income to offset the additional costs imposed by central banks on their savings.

A third dynamic dooms the insane negative interest rate policy: what does it say about the stability and health of the status quo if central banks are saying the only way to save the status quo is to force everyone to empty their piggy banks and spend every last dime of cash?

What exactly are we saving by destroying savings and capital? Isn't capital the foundation of capitalism? The answer is we are saving nothng but a rotten-to-the-core, parasitic, predatory banking system, coddled and enabled by…
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S&P 500 Approaching Significant Levels

Courtesy of Dana Lyons

image

The correction in the equity markets has brought the S&P 500 down close to a confluence of key technical levels.

People ask us all the time what we view as the important “levels” in the stock market, e.g., “what is our target level for the Dow?” or “what level will put an end to the correction?”. To be honest, while we do have our areas on the various charts that we view as significant, we are less focused on price levels than we are on the behavior of various market indicators and investors. Levels can be helpful, but sometimes prices overshoot what they “should” and sometimes they don’t quite make it “there”. That’s why we rely on a set of indicators based on market internals, momentum, investor positioning, etc. to help guide our investment posture, i.e., aggressive, defensive, etc.

That said, as I mentioned, we do view certain levels on a chart as significant if prices do happen to reach, or breach, them. And since A) people are most interested in the S&P 500 and B) that index is approaching some potentially key levels, we thought we would present it as our Chart Of The Day.

One thing of note that we have mentioned several times before is that, of all the securities and indices, etc. that one wants to chart technically, the S&P 500 is one of the most unreliable. We have found that typically, the degree of adherence to technical levels is inversely correlated to the number of participants trading it. That is, the more people attempting to technically trade a price series, the less apt it is to conform to traditional technical analysis.

This is not a scientific conclusion but rather an observation of ours. But it does make sense because A) the more competition there is, the more difficult it will be to win, and B) the more participants there are watching the same thing, the more likely it will be that HFT’s, computers or large institutions will be “gaming” that “thing”. And perhaps no instrument has more eyes on it than the S&P 500. That means it is a relatively…
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You Are Owed Nothing

Look at the bar chart at the end of the post and ask: Do markets move in cycles? What are my long term objectives? And, is this time different? 

You Are Owed Nothing

Courtesy of Michael Batnick, The Irrelevant Investor

People invest their hard earned dollars to earn a return above and beyond inflation.  At a three percent inflation rate, your purchasing power would get cut in half over twenty years. As the value of your dollar diminishes over time, the goal when investing is to maintain and even grow the value of your money.

You’ve seen this chart before, it shows that $1 invested in 1926 would have grown to $5,386 today, a whopping return of 538,547%, or 10% a year.

growth

What you don’t always see is the real growth of $1, or what the returns would be after you factor in inflation. Once this is accounted for, stocks have returned 40,670% over the last ninety years, or 6.9% a year (I used an arithmetic scale here for affect, the chart above uses a log scale).

growth 2.jpg

The chart above clearly demonstrates how much inflation eats into returns. Still, an 8.5% average real return, or 6.9% compounded is pretty darn good. If an investor earned 6.9% for twenty years, their total return would be 280%. Sounds good right? Here’s the kicker. Real returns aren’t owed to anybody, they’re earned the hard way.

Over all ten-year periods, the real rate of return for stocks has been positive 85% of the time. While these are pretty good odds, you probably wouldn’t feel invincible if somebody told you there was a 15% chance that you could lose money investing over the next decade. The image below illustrates that investing is not for the faint of heart.

cap 3

As you’re probably painfully aware, the S&P 500 hasn’t made any progress over the last two years. If you’re feeling a little frustrated, I have some bad news for you, this is how stocks works. The stock market doesn’t owe you anything. It doesn’t care that you’re about to retire. It doesn’t…
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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

The Crowded Trade in Bank Stocks Among Oil-Rich Countries (Bloomberg)

When it comes to the selloff in bank stocks, there’s plenty to blame: credit concern, earnings, negative interest rates, and souring sentiment.

Middle income Americans aren't that worried about the choppy stock market (Business Insider)

Many are worried about what the hemorrhaging stock market could mean going forward for the overall economy.

Untitled

Oil Hits Latest Hurdle as U.S. Fuel Glut Puts Brakes on Refining (Bloomberg)

Refineries in the middle of the US are curtailing crude processing as profits shrink, leaving behind oil that’s adding to a supply glut and pushing prices to the lowest since 2003.

Four-Day Losing Streak for Market as Economic Concerns Grow (NY Times)

U.S. stocks fell for the fourth day in a row as concerns about global economic weakness intensified, even as the Federal Reserve chairwoman, Janet L. Yellen, reiterated her confidence in the U.S. economy.

This isn’t 2008, but it isn’t great either (Economist)

So far, 2016 has been something of a disaster around global markets. Equity and commodity prices have been hammered. Yields on safe government bonds are plumbing extraordinarily low levels. Investors seem to be terrified. But of what?

Some Hedge Funds Want to Make Subprime Auto Loans Next Big Short (Bloomberg)

A group of hedge funds, convinced they have found the next Big Short, are looking to bet against bonds backed by subprime auto loans. Good luck finding a bank willing to do the trade.

Global stocks are in a bear market (Business Insider)

That's it: Global stocks are officially in a bear market.

Screen Shot 2016 02 11 at 4.42.29 PM

Oil is back below $27 because there’s still way, way too much of it (Quartz)

Surprise, surprise! Crude oil is falling again. The week’s big loser: US benchmark West Texas Intermediate, which


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Amazon.com Web Services to Acquire Nice; Terms Not Disclosed

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related AMZN
CBS No Longer Talking To Apple About Streaming TV, Report Says
Expert: Pandora Suitors Could Include Netflix, Facebook, Google, Amazon And Others
Pandora Posts Q4 Earnings Miss As Listener Base Tumbles (Investor’s Business Daily)

I would like to extend a warm welcome to our new colleagues at NICE. We have signed an agreement to acquire this leading provider of software and services for high performance and technical computing.

Products for HPC
From their headquarters in Asti, Italy, NICE delivers products and solutions to customers all over the world. These products help customers to optimize and centralize their high performance computing (HPC) and visualization workloads while also providing tools that are a great fit for distributed workforces making use of mobile devices.

For Existing Customers
The NICE brand and team will remain intact and will continue to develop and support the EnginFrame and Desktop Cloud Visualization (DCV) products. Customers will continue to receive world-class support and services, enhanced with the backing of the AWS team. Going forward, NICE and AWS will work together to create even better tools and services.

Still Day 1
As Jeff Bezos often says, it is still day 1 and we don’t have all of the answers yet. However, I did want to share this news with you and let you know that we are looking forward to meeting and working with our new colleagues. We expect the deal to close in Q1 of 2016.

Posted-In: News M&A Press Releases





8 Stocks You Should Be Watching Today

Courtesy of Benzinga.

8 Stocks You Should Be Watching Today

Related DPS
JC Parets: Why I Like Shorting Dr. Pepper Snapple
Benzinga's Top Downgrades
Dr. Pepper Snapple adds to buyback firepower, raises dividend payout (Seeking Alpha)

Related IPG
Earnings Scheduled For February 12, 2016
Benzinga's Top Upgrades
Notable earnings before Friday's open (Seeking Alpha)

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

Pandora Media (NYSE: P) reported weaker-than-expected earnings for its fourth quarter. The company has been involved in talks regarding a potential sale of the company, according to sources as reported by New York Times DealBook on Thursday. Pandora shares fell 5.93 percent to $8.57 in the after-hours trading session.

Wall Street expects Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB) to report its quarterly earnings at $0.82 per share on revenue of $294.33 million. Red Robin shares gained 1.24 percent to close at $58.77 yesterday.

Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) reported downbeat results for its fourth quarter on Thursday. Activision Blizzard shares dipped 13.99 percent to $26.25 in the after-hours trading session.

Groupon Inc (NASDAQ: GRPN) reported stronger-than-expected results for its fourth quarter on Thursday. Groupon shares surged 18.30 percent to $2.65 in the after-hours trading session.

Analysts are expecting American Axle & Manufact. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: AXL) to have earned $0.68 per share on revenue of $979.59 million in the recent quarter. American Axle shares fell 0.40 percent to $11.70 in after-hours trading.

FireEye Inc (NASDAQ: FEYE) reported a narrower-than-expected loss for its fourth quarter, but the company missed analysts’ revenue estimates. The company also issued a weak earnings forecast for the current quarter. FireEye shares rose 0.16 percent to $12.43 in the after-hours trading session.

Analysts expect Interpublic Group of Companies Inc (NYSE: IPG) to report its quarterly earnings at $0.62 per share on revenue of $2.19 billion. Interpublic Group shares declined 0.29 percent to close at $20.36 yesterday.

Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. (NYSE: DPS) lifted its quarterly dividend by 10.4 percent to $0.53 per share and added $1 billion to its share buyback plan. Dr. Pepper shares slipped 0.06 percent to $89.59 in after-hours trading.

Posted-In: Stocks To WatchEarnings News Guidance Pre-Market Outlook Markets Trading Ideas





Why Did Deutsche Bank Downgrade Flowers Foods After Earnings?

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Why Did Deutsche Bank Downgrade Flowers Foods After Earnings?

Related FLO
Benzinga's Top Downgrades
Mid-Afternoon Market Update: Crude Oil Down 3%; Tripadvisor Shares Rise On Earnings Beat
Flowers Foods (FLO) Allen L. Shiver on Q4 2015 Results – Earnings Call Transcript (Seeking Alpha)

Deutsche Bank recently issued a report on Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE: FLO) after a recent selloff of the stock. Analysts at Deutsche Bank downgraded Flower Foods from Buy to Hold, and lowered their price target from $25 to $18.

Eric Katzman and Mario Contreras, analysts and associates at Deutsche Bank, wrote, “[W]e note Flowers has a strong balance sheet with 2.2x net debt/EBITDA, 110 percent FCF efficiency and a relatively attractive 6 percent+ FCF yield. But to remain positive on the shares, such supportive details aren’t sufficient and we don’t see how the landscape improves intermediate term or allows the stock to regain lost ground.”

Related Link: Cupid Countdown: Vend It At Valentine’s Day

Key Takeaways

Analysts at Deutsche Bank gave two key reasons why they downgraded Flowers Foods:

1. Industry Competition
Deutsche Bank noted that the baked foods industry has become increasingly competitive in recent years, which has put pressure on Flower Food’s margins and ability to drive top line growth. Going forward, analysts believe that to grow sufficiently, Flower Foods will have to introduce new products to the market in order to differentiate themselves from other major companies.

2. Input Cost Volatility
Deutsche Bank wrote that Flower Foods is exposed to fluctuations in items such as wheat and energy, which have the ability to negatively affect the company’s bottom line. While company management has made strides in improving operating efficiency, analysts believe that the volatility in input costs has the ability to be a negative headwind in the near term.

At the time of this publication, Flower Foods was trading down 2.14 percent on the day at $16.45.

Image Credit: Public Domain

Latest Ratings for FLO

Date Firm Action From To
Feb 2016 Deutsche Bank Downgrades Buy Hold
Feb 2016 BMO Capital Downgrades Outperform Market Perform
Feb 2016 SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Downgrades Buy Neutral

View More Analyst Ratings for FLO
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Deutsche BankAnalyst Color Long Ideas Short Ideas Downgrades Price Target Analyst Ratings Trading Ideas





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

THe DeuTSCHe LoCKeR...

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Phil's Favorites

Is Anybody NOT Deeper In Debt?

Courtesy of John Rubino.

The New York Federal Reserve just announced that older Americans are carrying more debt than ever before and, believe it or not, spins this as a good thing:

New York Fed Finds Large Increase in Debts Held by Those Over Age 50 (NASDAQ) – Americans in their 50s, 60s and 70s are carrying unprecedented amounts of debt, a shift that reflects both the aging of the baby boomer generation and their greater likelihood of retaining mortgage, auto and student debt at much later ages than previous generations.

The average 65-year-old borrower has 47% more mortgage debt and 29% more auto debt than 65-year-olds had in 2003, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released Friday. ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Big test for those that have been wrong, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

In May of last year, the S&P hit a key level and stopped on a dime. We applied Fibonacci tools to the highs in 2007 and the lows in 2009, to the chart above. The 161% Fibonacci extension level came into play in the 2,150 zone last year and when hit at (1), the markets stopped on a dime.

If your tools or adviser has suggested to be long and strong since May of 2015, that advice has been costly.

Our take, “Free advice that is wrong, is expensive!!!”

Below looks at stock i...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

The Crowded Trade in Bank Stocks Among Oil-Rich Countries (Bloomberg)

When it comes to the selloff in bank stocks, there’s plenty to blame: credit concern, earnings, negative interest rates, and souring sentiment.

Middle income Americans aren't that worried about the choppy stock market (Business Insider)

Many are worried about what the hemorrhaging stock market could mean going forward for the overall e...



more from Paul

Chart School

Further Losses But No Breakaway

Courtesy of Declan.

The Asian session had set up for big losses, but markets were able to defend against such losses even if finishing with a lower close.

The S&P tagged the January low, but it's hard to see it holding out if there's another challenge on 1,810.


The Nasdaq was able to register a higher close (although below the prior day's close). It probably did enough to negate what is normally a bearish black candlestick, but bulls won't have any confidence until the bearish channel is broken.

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 8th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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ValueWalk

Why Most Investors Fail in the Stock Market

 

Why Most Investors Fail in the Stock Market

Courtesy of ValueWalk, by  

Throughout the past 30 days of wild volatility, here’s what I didn’t do.

Panic. Worry. Sell.

In fact, the best I did was add to a couple of positions yesterday. The world was already in an uncertain state for the past 3+ years. It’s just that with the market rising, we pushed the issue to the back of our  mind and ignored it.

If you read Howard Marks latest memo, ...



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Digital Currencies

2016 Theme #3: The Rise Of Independent (Non-State) Crypto-Currencies

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith at Of Two Minds

A number of systemic, structural forces are intersecting in 2016. One is the rise of non-state, non-central-bank-issued crypto-currencies.

We all know money is created and distributed by governments and central banks. The reason is simple: control the money and you control everything.

The invention of the blockchain and crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin have opened the door to non-state, non-central-bank currencies--money that is global and independent of any state or central bank, or indeed, any bank, as crypto-currencies are structurally peer-to-peer, meaning they don't require a bank to function: people can exchange crypto-currencies to pay for goods and services without a bank acting as a clearinghouse for all these transactions.

This doesn't just open t...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: New Year brings new hope after bulls lose traction to close 2015

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Chart via Finviz

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last year, the S&P 500 large caps closed 2015 essentially flat on a total return basis, while the NASDAQ 100 showed a little better performance at +8.3% and the Russell 2000 small caps fell -5.9%. Overall, stocks disappointed even in the face of modest expectations, especially the small caps as market leadership was mostly limited to a handful of large and mega-cap darlings.

Notably, the full year chart for the S&P 500 looks very much like 2011. It got off to a good start, drifted sideways for...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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