$100K Hedged Virtual Portfolio Update
by Phil - May 6th, 2009 4:48 am
Well, there was no reason to adjust the virtual portfolio this weekend but now I’m a little concerned (as I went short-term bearish yesterday morning) and it’s a good time to review our positions.
Monday gave us a lot if cushion but that doesn’t mean we have to squander it. Our last review was on the 25th and we had made adjustments on the 21st in member chat, triggering the plays we had decided to wait for the previous weekend. Notice we haven’t really had a down day since so there has been no reason to adjust what has essentially been a bullish set. Yesterday, in comments, I called for covering our UNG play but that’s the only move we’ve had to make in 2 weeks. Sadly, vacation time is over so let’s look over our positions and see where action will be required:
Our original positions were:
- 500 UYG at $3.48, selling 5 May $3 calls for .72 and 5 May $3 puts for .28, net $2.48/2.74
- UYG now $3.91, May put and call combo now $1.05 = net $2.86 ($190 profit on $1,240 = 15.3%)
- We are fine being called away on this position
- UYG now $3.91, May put and call combo now $1.05 = net $2.86 ($190 profit on $1,240 = 15.3%)
- Selling 2 FAS $7.50 puts for .45 naked
- FAS closed at $9.40 so 100% profit of $90
- 500 C at $3.04, selling May $3 puts and calls for $1.11, net $1.93/2.47
- C now $3.31, We took out the callers for .30 on 4/21 and the May $3 puts are .20 = net $3.11 ($590 profit on $965 = 61.1%)
- We should close this position, it is above our profit expectations
- C now $3.31, We took out the callers for .30 on 4/21 and the May $3 puts are .20 = net $3.11 ($590 profit on $965 = 61.1%)
- Selling 2 IYF May $36 puts for $2 naked
- IYF closed at $41.80, May $36 puts $.35 ($330 profit on $400 =82%)
- Because of the stress tests, I would rather close these out
- IYF closed at $41.80, May $36 puts $.35 ($330 profit on $400 =82%)
- 4/21 Sold 2 IYF May $34 puts for $2.10 naked
- IYF closed at $41.80, May $34 puts $.20 ($380 profit on $420 =90%)
- Because of the stress tests, I would rather close these out
- IYF closed at $41.80, May $34 puts $.20 ($380 profit on $420 =90%)
- Selling 2 JPM May $29 puts for $1.95 naked
- JPM closed at $34.77, May $29 puts $.23 ($344 profit on $390 = 88%)
- Because of the stress tests, I would rather close these out
- JPM closed at $34.77, May $29 puts $.23 ($344 profit on $390 = 88%)
- 4/21 Sold 2 JPM $28 puts for
PSW Investment Club – July Update
by Phil - July 20th, 2008 9:02 am
June was not a good month.
We were under covered on the way down, got more conservative at the bottom and got blown out this week as our callers went deep in the money.
All of that is manageable but the worst trade of the month came on Friday as Google went down much further than expected and wiped our out callers as well as most of our long position. I decided to play GOOG for the bounce, figuring we’d work into a bear call spread if it kept going down, most of these moves were detailed in Friday’s chat but essentially I built up a spread where I sold the $470s against higher calls and played for the bounce. By 12:19 I had sold 100 $470 calls for about $160,000 and Google was at about $483, the $480s, $490s and $500s were losing money too so the move was, as GOOG bottomed out, to roll the caller to the $460 with a tight stop (in case we went further down) but with tight stops so we could take advantage of the rebound.
That left us with a spread of 300 sold $460s against a similar amount of $480s and $490s and $500s. Google did indeed bounce just after I did the roll and I went to buy them back but OXPS wouldn’t let me! The reason was the computer didn’t count the fact that we were releasing $20 in margin each time we bought back a caller so it wouldn’t put the trade in. That left us in a very dangerous spread with GOOG coming back as the $460s were going to out gain out higher calls by a wide margin. I called support at OXPS but while I was waiting for them GOOG was going up fast on us and it was getting prohibitive to take out the caller so I decided to cover by rolling the $480s down to the $470s.
By the time I had explained the whole thing for the second time to a supervisor on the phone (who said "Oh sure, you should have been able to make that trade"), it was after 2 and our premiums were crushed so all I could do was roll the trade into an Aug $470/Aug $480 BULL call spread where our caller now holds the $300,000 in premium. Our realized loss on this trade was $225K, had…
Thursday Virtual Portfolio Moves
by Phil - December 29th, 2007 5:33 pm
November 29th, 2007 at 9:41 am | Permalink edit copy
SU – I’m going to DD at $2.50 for a $2.95 basis and get 1/2 back out there and then be patient. XXX
November 29th, 2007 at 9:42 am | Permalink edit copy
Still plenty of buyers out there, this is nothing I want to short into right now but BIDU is looking like a fantastic short up here if GOOG breaks down.
November 29th, 2007 at 9:46 am | Permalink edit copy
SPWR, FSLR going vertical! Also going to be good shorts when oil calms down but for now they are rallying the sector.
SHLD broke below $100, I’ll be buying more when it settles down but this is now a long-term play.
November 29th, 2007 at 9:51 am | Permalink edit copy
Weak stocks that worry me: DELL, YRCW, NYX, LEH, AXP (very nasty turn), TGT, BSC, MER, NKE, HD (how can it keep going down?)…
I like shorting MA off AXP’s move MA $190 puts at $6.25, stop at $5.50, going for $9+ XXX
November 29th, 2007 at 10:05 am | Permalink edit copy
AAPL – any opportunity to do a double roll of your call and your caller up $5 for $1 out of pocket is worth taking. For example, I have the $175 calls, now $10.22 and I sold the $165 calls, now $17.57 and I’m going to roll my caller to the $175s for $7.35 out of my pocket and I will roll myself to the $185s at $4.78 collecting $5.44. This costs me $2 but moves my max collection all the way up to $175 (of course this also means I don’t expect Apple to hold $180). XXX all virtual portfolios!
New home sales much better than expected but not a real number but it should goose the markets until people look at the internals. Supply is still up and sale prices are down but expect a very nice buider rally off the headline and let’s keep an eye on the financials to see if anyone is buying this.
November 29th, 2007 at 10:18 am | Permalink edit copy
Oh sorry, I forgot to mention take the money and run on the GOOG $710s in the $25KP, we still have the $730s but I don’t want to leave them both up.
XXX
November 29th, 2007 at 10:40 am | Permalink edit copy…
Monday Virtual Portfolio Moves
by Phil - December 17th, 2007 11:25 pm
December 17th, 2007 at 9:35 am | Permalink edit copy
Gloomy – I don’t think there will be a bounce until after the new year at best so yes, rolling down (if cheap) and selling Jan callers (who will lose 1/2 their premium by Jan 2, is a good plan.
LDK – if you are in that butterfly it’s best to take out the caller now and sell yours on mo at the top, the put side will take care of itself. XXX
December 17th, 2007 at 9:39 am | Permalink edit copy
AAPL is just amazing!
Financials geting killed but not C – possible bottom for them. Tech actually doing pretty well on the whole with the usual suspects finding buyers. If Apple and Goog fail then it’s time to short the Nas.
Oil just broke below $90!!
December 17th, 2007 at 9:49 am | Permalink edit copy
LDK – that was a quick turn! Too quick for me to move so I’m stuck at the moment and trying to roll myself ($70s) to the Jan $75s, then I will roll the caller up to the $70s to get some premium and then roll him to Jan ??? at the week’s end. XXX
December 17th, 2007 at 10:07 am | Permalink edit copy
TSO going nuts! Citi is nuts but we’re fine with out Jan $50s and I wouldn’t roll the caller and I won’t pay him .25!
CAT with a gap down.
DNDN giving it all back, we’ll watch them.
HOT at 52-week low, not a good economy sign.
SU heading the wrong way, banking on those rebels over the actual NYMEX action. TBoon owns SU so you can guess who’s paying MENDs bills…
NEM – you should aways roll down if you can get it cheap (and you still believe in your position) it never hurts you if you can do a 35% roll, which would be about $1 on $2.50 and dollar $1.70 on $5 and $3.50 on $10. I wouldn’t be too quick to sell another caller down here as I think this is a great bottom. In fact, lets take a shot on the Mar $47.50s at $4.10 as a holiday crisis insurance play. XXX
December 17th, 2007 at 10:18 am | Permalink edit copy
MA got slapped by the EU on their fees, this is the story we’ve been following all summer and…
Friday Virtual Portfolio Moves
by Phil - December 14th, 2007 11:28 pm
December 14th, 2007 at 9:39 am | Permalink edit copy
GM $26!
RTP off a cliff, AGAIN!
KO getting bought, CSCO doing well, VLO getting action, XOM holding up, FCEL still going..
POT getting smoked, IBM not good, DRYS a mess, SBUX NEW LOWS…
APPL is the sign that we’re going to hell, although the Dow down 113 is a hint too! Watch 13,400 of course and 1,475 and 2,650 (already gone) to see which way we’re going.
YHOO may hold $24, that will be very telling if they do in this weather.
December 14th, 2007 at 9:41 am | Permalink edit copy
Someone big is buying down here!
Take out Apple callers, I’m willing to stick my neck out on those! XXX
December 14th, 2007 at 9:54 am | Permalink edit copy
BUD – sell only executed in one for some reason. Oh well… I still like them as a superbowl play.
We might get that silly oil rally to short into!
December 14th, 2007 at 10:03 am | Permalink edit copy
DNDN moving like they mean it now!
LOL Kahn, good trade!
FWLT is acting like a lost sheep again but I barely got out even last time and I’m back on the wagon with them.
C – patience. We will buy them on the way up and sell to cover at the top of the channel. If they break $31 they are good to go to near $32 but there are dividend cut worries and we have to wait for all the income dependent investors to clear out.
December 14th, 2007 at 10:07 am | Permalink edit copy
Dollar at 77.25, that’s a squeeze zone for bears!
DELL coming back from the dead. We held up nicely there and now the buying is spreading. We’re being led by energy so let’s watch them for a reversal but let’s also stop out of our callers in accounts where we can day-trade back into them. XXX
December 14th, 2007 at 10:14 am | Permalink edit copy
RTP Apr $420 puts at $47.50, selling the $420 puts for $14.20 ($13 premium) and then rolling to Jan $410 puts ($23.50 premium). If the first part wasn’t so expensive I’d put it in the small virtual portfolios but XXX
December 14th, 2007 at 10:19 am | Permalink edit copy
OK, I think I see a pattern. Someone is buying up stocks they…
Thursday Virtual Portfolio Moves
by Phil - December 13th, 2007 11:35 pm
December 13th, 2007 at 9:35 am | Permalink edit copy
Things look pretty good so far but I’m not quite ready to buy just yet.
December 13th, 2007 at 9:56 am | Permalink edit copy
XMSR and other adjustments – yes but let’s give the markets some time to find a footing because we don’t want to do multiple moves. Right at the bell yesterday I laid out a move for XMSR that is still valid, that’s the adjustment I want to make as $15 seems much less likely.
FSLR – This stock is officially a joke. It’s like RIMM was and still is and PLAY was last year – just a rumor driven trading vehicle that is manipulated whichever way the retail investors aren’t playing it.
Exchange leaps are valid, we did the RUT last week and we can look for others. A long FXI put may be a good idea right now but I sure wouldn’t sell against it just yet.
JOSB – nice call, take the money and run!
December 13th, 2007 at 10:07 am | Permalink edit copy
Well this confirms that BA seems be done going down here. CAT is doing well too and MCD so it’s a flight to safety stocks but clearly that doesn’t include AXP today as they are down 3%.
Selling is picking up and I do expect 13,300 to hold, which would be good if we test it. Brokers off 2% and energy slowly but surely slipping.
Airlines would be a good buy if oil goes lower.
CELG getting hammered.
MSFT doing well as they do whenever Rein is watching!
Nat gas inventories today but if they don’t get a 130+ BCF draw they will cause a bigger sell-off across the energy sector.
I’m so glad we took out that XMSR caller, if they get back to $15 we have no reason to change the play.
NYSE down 109, Dow down 57, whichever one is catching up to the other is probably the market direction for the day. We are probably going to take a run at even since that was a critical point yesterday but if we fail that things could be sad in the afternoon.
December 13th, 2007 at 10:22 am | Permalink edit copy
COST – absolutely a buy. There was nothing wrong with their numbers other than a slight miss on the top line but they…
Wednesday Virtual Portfolio Moves
by Phil - December 12th, 2007 7:45 pm
December 12th, 2007 at 9:31 am | Permalink edit copy
I’m not doing anything in general – sometimes you have to take a hit, take a breath and then come up with a rational course of action. Let’s see what levels we get to before buying into this. I’m not sure how much this really helps anything other than giving the bulls an excuse to rally. The CB’s have been giving money out like candy anyway, this is just more of the same but we’re not going to fight the tape.
December 12th, 2007 at 9:49 am | Permalink edit copy
LTP – I’d wait a bit for a real dip. 13,700 is so close to the top of the year’s trading range that you are much more likely to be overpaying than underpaying.
I’m tempted to short here actually but I’ll just be happy if this lunacy calms down here. I’m really getting fed up but S&P 1,505 is nothing to rally about and all I see is a ton of blocks being sold to retail investors who think $40Bn tossed out by the CBs is going to solve something. If they Dow breaks back below 13,600, we can probably short anything we wished we shorted yesterday, like XOM, which is now up over yesterday’s high and very close to it’s 10/29 high of $93.61 (spike to $94.27). At that point, out of prinicpal, I will have to bet the farm on XOM going down!
If you are long, I would suggest exiting with the big boys and just being happy you got out of yesterday’s mess with little damage. Let’s wait for a real breakout before we start “bargain hunting.” If you are short, I would roll up to Jan puts but you have to assume Dec is dead as we only have 8 sessions left.
December 12th, 2007 at 10:09 am | Permalink edit copy
DIA Dec puts – I’m only in Jans but I’m not covering.
NEM – after yesterday you have to ask? Yes, cover! AMGN – yes cover! This Fed thing is just more smoke an mirrors, likely capitulation to Paulson’s pals who got caught with their pants down yesterday and need someone to sell to. Remmbemr in yesterday’s comments I noted that there were NO buyers, that could have been catastrophic if it continued today thus the BS move followed by a hard-core…

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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