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Archive for the ‘Virtual Portfolio Moves’ Category

Virtual Portfolios Update – 11/18/2012

FAS Money

$25KPA

$25KPM

AAPL Money

Peter's Strangle Portfolio

Income Portfolio





Virtual Portfolios Update – 11/9/2012

 

In order to centralize weekend comments regarding the virtual portfolios, we thought that it would make more sense to write a post outlining the current positions. The portfolios spreadsheet is currently up to date and can be viewed here

Income Portfolio

 
Some stocks in the news this week:
 
RIG - Upgraded to Buy at Argus and The Street Rating.
CSCO - Reports earnings on 11/13.
HPQ - Hit a new 52-week low on Friday.
JRCC - Victim of the election!
SBUX - Upgraded to Buy at Argus
BBY - Buyout offer expected from Richard Schulze. Rumored to be below $24.00. Our net is $18.84.
SHLD - Reports earnings on 11/15.
CLF - Reached an agreement with labor union.
CMG - Reiterated as Buy at The Street Rating.

FAS Money

25KPM

25KPA (High Margin Portfolio)

MoMo Portfolio (managed by lflan)

AAPL Money (High Margin Portfolio)

Strangle Portfolio (Managed by Peter – High Margin Portfolio)





Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 2/26/2012

My last weekend update is dated from January 30 so after a long hiatus, here is an update of our virtual portfolio. Since the last update, we have closed the AA Money portfolio due to a lack of enthusiasm (and activity) and I have stopped tracking the FAS strangle as the low VIX makes it hard to get rewarded for the risk! But we have added a small $5KP virtual portfolio which does not use any margin.

FAS Money

We have had to recover from a big move up by FAS and a low VIX which keeps option prices low. But the portfolio has gaine about 10% since the last update.

Last update P&L – $5499.00

IWM Money

Not a lot of activity in this portfolio where the main focus is on the large IWM BCS. But the portfolio has grown over 20% since the last update.

Last update P&L – $1998.00

$5KP Portfolio

This is the virtual portfolio that replaced the AA Money portfolio. It does not use margin and we will keep holdings under $5K.

AAPL $50K Portfolio

What is there to say about this portfolio…. $132K of profit in a bit less than 3 months. Unbelievable and great job by lflan!

Last update P&L – $53,205.00

$25KP Portfolio

Comments about this portfolio can be found in Phil’s daily post. I have included only February trades as the list of trade is getting too long to fit in the article.

Last update P&L – (-$5447.00)





Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/22/2012

Here is the virtual portfolio weekend update. Basically a recap of the positions and some notes about the trades. As usual, I’ll post the previous week’s P&L for comparison. Not the greatest of week in general!

AA Money

Only transaction last week as we bought back the AA Feb 9 puts on Tuesday for close to a 70% profit. The idea is to sell another set of put as soon as we get a chance.

Previous week P&L – $400.00

We lost some ground this week, but we’ll keep on selling premium!

FAS Money

We also lost some ground in this virtual portfolio, but we have sold plenty of premium for the coming week. A little correction would go a long way to help! On Wednesday we sold the FAS Feb 72 puts (already good for 50%), on Thursday we added the Jan4 78 calls and on Friday we had to roll the Jan 78 puts to the Jan 80 puts. We were hoping for these ones to expire worthless on Friday, but a late stick killed that hope.

Previous week P&L – $4372.00

IWM Money

Not the best of week either here… As with the other portfolios we were a tad bearish with more calls sold. On Wednesday we sold the TNA Feb 47 puts (already up 40%) and on Thursday we rolled the TNA Jan 46 calls to the Jan4 49 calls.

Previous week P&L – $2046.00

As with the FAS Money portfolio, plenty of premium sold to get us back on track.

FAS Strangle Experiment

One bad move on Friday almost wiped out the entire week’s profit. There might be 2 lessons learned from that:

1) Every Friday will be different –  the week before, patience was rewarded, this week, a late stick punished it.
2) Better to take the profits when we can.

I also tried to time the entries better and it did help earlier this week but I still need to work on that.

Previous week P&L – $10,190.00

We start the week with over $1 of premium sold. All we need is a move to the downside to make up the loss.

25KP Virtual Portfolio

I’ll let Phil comment any of the trades. Here is a recap of the positions.

The SQQQ Jan calls expired worthless on Friday.

Apple 50k Virtual Portfolio

I’ll let lflan add his…
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Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/16/2012

Here is the latest weekend update of our virtual portfolios. As before, I will list some of the trades we made, recap last week’s P&L and post the listing of the current positions:

AA Money

No trade to report this week. We are just waiting for decay to do its work on the February puts and calls sold last week. The position improved slightly over the week.

Last week’s P&L – $340

FAS Money

Only 3 trades to report this week. We sold 2 weekly FAS 74 calls on Tuesday and rolled them to the Jan 78 calls on Friday. We did show a profit on these calls, but honestly missed a better opportunity early afternoon when they were even more profitable! Also, the weekly 65 puts sold the week before expired worthless. But overall, a very good week for the portfolio – up 6.7%

Last week P&L – 4098.00

IWM Money

Also a quiet week in this portfolio – only one trade. We bought back the TNA Jan 43 put on Tuesday for a 70% profit. We are still holding some TNA Jan 46 calls and these are hurting us now (we lost some ground this week on the P&L)- but still a week to go.

Last week P&L – 2089.00

FAS Strangle Experiment

We only sold 4 set of options last week and covered them all by Friday but still had a decent week. We got lucky on Friday as the correction saved the 76 calls we had sold earlier that week. I regret not taking advantage of the up move on Friday to sell some put, but overall a decent week – up over 10% for the week. The low VIX is really making a difference in the amount of premium we sell. In addition, the short weeks have also hampered our premium sales!

Last week’s P&L – $9240.00

AAPL 50k

I’ll lflan add his comments if he chooses to. But another good week!

Last week’s P&L – $24075.00

25KP Virtual Portfolio

Phil will probably add his comments in a different post. Below is only the list of trades and current situation.

Good luck next week!





Weekend Virtual Portfolio Recap – 1/2/2012

This is the first weekend virtual portfolio recap of 2012! We had mixed results since the last recap. Market gyrations and a low VIX make it difficult to sell premium. Short term trades with a market neutral setup should do better in general! Here are the various virtual portfolios. Since this is the first recap in an article format, I have added some more information about the original positions. I have listed the P&L from the previous recap before the new listing to outline the results for this week.

AA Money

This is only portfolio based on the original FAS Money setup – Long strangle to protect us against large moves and short options to pay for the strangle and generate revenues. AA was chosen originally because FAS had proven very volatile and forced us to trade a lot except in the last month when we finally switched to selling monthly options. The AA Money portfolio was started on 10/21/2011 with a Jan 2013 7.5/12 strangle and we started by selling weekly options. However, selling weekly options against AA proved to be costly as options don’t have much premium. We switched to monthly options to limit transactions and capture more premium. Due to the AA price erosion, we have had to revise the strangle and settle with a Jan 13 7.5/10 strangle. This move cost us some money. We have not had any transactions since early December. The current position is bearish with only put sold.

Recap of 12/27/2011 – YTD P&L – $20.00

The position has deteriorated this week due to the weakness in the underlying stock. But we’ll keep on selling premium for the next 12 months.

FAS Money

While this retained the FAS Money name, the setup is somewhat different from the original FAS Money portfolio. No strangle here. We bought an XLF Bull Call Spread betting that XLF will be over $13 by January 13 and we sell weekly and monthly FAS options to pay for the BCS. This portfolio has proven profitable due to the large premium in the FAS options. The XLF BCS is slightly profitable, but 99% of the profits have come from the short FAS options. This portfolio had a decent week despite a sideways move by XLF. But by selling puts and calls in a more neutral setup, we profit from the lack of movement of the underlying security. The…
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$100K Hedged Virtual Portfolio Update

Well, there was no reason to adjust the virtual portfolio this weekend but now I’m a little concerned (as I went short-term bearish yesterday morning) and it’s a good time to review our positions.

Monday gave us a lot if cushion but that doesn’t mean we have to squander it.  Our last review was on the 25th and we had made adjustments on the 21st in member chat, triggering the plays we had decided to wait for the previous weekend.  Notice we haven’t really had a down day since so there has been no reason to adjust what has essentially been a bullish set.   Yesterday, in comments, I called for covering our UNG play but that’s the only move we’ve had to make in 2 weeks.  Sadly, vacation time is over so let’s look over our positions and see where action will be required:

Our original positions were: 

  • 500 UYG at $3.48, selling 5 May $3 calls for .72 and 5 May $3 puts for .28, net $2.48/2.74
    • UYG now $3.91, May put and call combo now $1.05 = net $2.86 ($190 profit on $1,240 = 15.3%)
      • We are fine being called away on this position
  • Selling 2 FAS $7.50 puts for .45 naked
    • FAS closed at $9.40 so 100% profit of $90
  • 500 C at $3.04, selling May $3 puts and calls for $1.11, net $1.93/2.47
    • C now $3.31, We took out the callers for .30 on 4/21 and the May $3 puts are .20 = net $3.11 ($590 profit on $965 = 61.1%)
      • We should close this position, it is above our profit expectations
  • Selling 2 IYF May $36 puts for $2 naked
    • IYF closed at $41.80, May $36 puts $.35 ($330 profit on $400 =82%)
      • Because of the stress tests, I would rather close these out
  • 4/21 Sold 2 IYF May $34 puts for $2.10 naked
    • IYF closed at $41.80, May $34 puts $.20 ($380 profit on $420 =90%)
      • Because of the stress tests, I would rather close these out
  • Selling 2 JPM May $29 puts for $1.95 naked
    • JPM closed at $34.77, May $29 puts $.23 ($344 profit on $390 = 88%)
      • Because of the stress tests, I would rather close these out
  • 4/21 Sold 2 JPM $28 puts for


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PSW Investment Club – July Update

June was not a good month.

We were under covered on the way down, got more conservative at the bottom and got blown out this week as our callers went deep in the money.

All of that is manageable but the worst trade of the month came on Friday as Google went down much further than expected and wiped our out callers as well as most of our long position.  I decided to play GOOG for the bounce, figuring we’d work into a bear call spread if it kept going down, most of these moves were detailed in Friday’s chat but essentially I built up a spread where I sold the $470s against higher calls and played for the bounce.  By 12:19 I had sold 100 $470 calls for about $160,000 and Google was at about $483, the $480s, $490s and $500s were losing money too so the move was, as GOOG bottomed out, to roll the caller to the $460 with a tight stop (in case we went further down) but with tight stops so we could take advantage of the rebound.

That left us with a spread of 300 sold $460s against a similar amount of $480s and $490s and $500s.  Google did indeed bounce just after I did the roll and I went to buy them back but OXPS wouldn’t let me!  The reason was the computer didn’t count the fact that we were releasing $20 in margin each time we bought back a caller so it wouldn’t put the trade in.  That left us in a very dangerous spread with GOOG coming back as the $460s were going to out gain out higher calls by a wide margin.  I called support at OXPS but while I was waiting for them GOOG was going up fast on us and it was getting prohibitive to take out the caller so I decided to cover by rolling the $480s down to the $470s.

By the time I had explained the whole thing for the second time to a supervisor on the phone (who said "Oh sure, you should have been able to make that trade"), it was after 2 and our premiums were crushed so all I could do was roll the trade into an Aug $470/Aug $480 BULL call spread where our caller now holds the $300,000 in premium.  Our realized loss on this trade was $225K, had
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Thursday Virtual Portfolio Moves

November 29th, 2007 at 9:41 am | Permalink   edit   copy

SU – I’m going to DD at $2.50 for a $2.95 basis and get 1/2 back out there and then be patient. XXX

November 29th, 2007 at 9:42 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Still plenty of buyers out there, this is nothing I want to short into right now but BIDU is looking like a fantastic short up here if GOOG breaks down.

November 29th, 2007 at 9:46 am | Permalink   edit   copy

SPWR, FSLR going vertical! Also going to be good shorts when oil calms down but for now they are rallying the sector.

SHLD broke below $100, I’ll be buying more when it settles down but this is now a long-term play.

November 29th, 2007 at 9:51 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Weak stocks that worry me: DELL, YRCW, NYX, LEH, AXP (very nasty turn), TGT, BSC, MER, NKE, HD (how can it keep going down?)…

I like shorting MA off AXP’s move MA $190 puts at $6.25, stop at $5.50, going for $9+ XXX

November 29th, 2007 at 10:05 am | Permalink   edit   copy

AAPL – any opportunity to do a double roll of your call and your caller up $5 for $1 out of pocket is worth taking. For example, I have the $175 calls, now $10.22 and I sold the $165 calls, now $17.57 and I’m going to roll my caller to the $175s for $7.35 out of my pocket and I will roll myself to the $185s at $4.78 collecting $5.44. This costs me $2 but moves my max collection all the way up to $175 (of course this also means I don’t expect Apple to hold $180). XXX all virtual portfolios!

New home sales much better than expected but not a real number but it should goose the markets until people look at the internals. Supply is still up and sale prices are down but expect a very nice buider rally off the headline and let’s keep an eye on the financials to see if anyone is buying this.

November 29th, 2007 at 10:18 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Oh sorry, I forgot to mention take the money and run on the GOOG $710s in the $25KP, we still have the $730s but I don’t want to leave them both up.
XXX

November 29th, 2007 at 10:40 am | Permalink   edit   copy
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Monday Virtual Portfolio Moves

December 17th, 2007 at 9:35 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Gloomy – I don’t think there will be a bounce until after the new year at best so yes, rolling down (if cheap) and selling Jan callers (who will lose 1/2 their premium by Jan 2, is a good plan.

LDK – if you are in that butterfly it’s best to take out the caller now and sell yours on mo at the top, the put side will take care of itself. XXX

December 17th, 2007 at 9:39 am | Permalink   edit   copy

AAPL is just amazing!

Financials geting killed but not C – possible bottom for them. Tech actually doing pretty well on the whole with the usual suspects finding buyers. If Apple and Goog fail then it’s time to short the Nas.

Oil just broke below $90!!

December 17th, 2007 at 9:49 am | Permalink   edit   copy

LDK – that was a quick turn! Too quick for me to move so I’m stuck at the moment and trying to roll myself ($70s) to the Jan $75s, then I will roll the caller up to the $70s to get some premium and then roll him to Jan ??? at the week’s end. XXX

December 17th, 2007 at 10:07 am | Permalink   edit   copy

TSO going nuts! Citi is nuts but we’re fine with out Jan $50s and I wouldn’t roll the caller and I won’t pay him .25!

CAT with a gap down.

DNDN giving it all back, we’ll watch them.

HOT at 52-week low, not a good economy sign.

SU heading the wrong way, banking on those rebels over the actual NYMEX action. TBoon owns SU so you can guess who’s paying MENDs bills…

NEM – you should aways roll down if you can get it cheap (and you still believe in your position) it never hurts you if you can do a 35% roll, which would be about $1 on $2.50 and dollar $1.70 on $5 and $3.50 on $10. I wouldn’t be too quick to sell another caller down here as I think this is a great bottom. In fact, lets take a shot on the Mar $47.50s at $4.10 as a holiday crisis insurance play. XXX

December 17th, 2007 at 10:18 am | Permalink   edit   copy

MA got slapped by the EU on their fees, this is the story we’ve been following all summer and…
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Zero Hedge

United States Of Newspeak - Obama Spins Executive Orders As "Presidential Memoranda" To Avoid Scrutiny

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

If there’s one thing we have learned about Barack Obama, it’s that he is a master of deception and absolutely loves to lie to the public. He seems to enjoy conning the plebs to such a degree, I think he actually receives blasts of dopamine every time he does it. The bigger the lie, the better the rush.

The latest example relates to his issuance of executive orders, or lack thereof, something that Obama Inc...



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Phil's Favorites

Competitive Theories: "Deflation Warning" vs. "Inflation is Nearly Everywhere"

Courtesy of Mish.

Theory #1: Break-Even Rates Provide "Deflation Warning"

Bloomberg is sounding a Deflation Warning as 2-Year Break-Even Rates Go Negative.

Break-even rates are the difference between treasuries and the same-duration Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The break-even rate turned negative yesterday for the first time since 2009.

In theory, break-even rates reflect investors’ expectations for inflation over the life of the securities.

When break-even rates are negative, it's an indication investors expect price deflation for the duration, in this case for two years.

From Bloomberg ...
The drop in the break-even rate followed a Labor Depart...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Chart School

Relief Bounce in Markets

Courtesy of Declan.

Those who took advantage of markets at Fib levels were rewarded.  However, this looked more a 'dead cat' style bounce than a genuine bottom forming low.  This can of course change, and one thing I will want to see is narrow action near today's high. Volume was a little light, but with Christmas fast approaching I would expect this trend to continue.

The S&P inched above 2,009, but I would like to see any subsequent weakness hold the 38.2% Fib level at 1,989.


The Nasdaq offered itself more as a support bounce, with a picture perfect play off its 38.2% Fib level. Unlike the S&P, volume did climb in confirmed accumulation. The next upside c...

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Digital Currencies

Chart o' the Day: Don't "Invest" in Stupid Sh*t

Joshua commented on the QZ article I posted a couple days ago and perfectly summarized the take-home message into an Investing Lesson. 

Chart o’ the Day: Don’t “Invest” in Stupid Sh*t

Courtesy of 

The chart above comes from Matt Phillips at Quartz and is a good reminder of why you shouldn’t invest in s...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of December 15th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Energy sector rains on bulls' parade, but skies may clear soon

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stocks have needed a reason to take a breather and pull back in this long-standing ultra-bullish climate, with strong economic data and seasonality providing impressive tailwinds -- and plummeting oil prices certainly have given it to them. But this minor pullback was fully expected and indeed desirable for market health. The future remains bright for the U.S. economy and corporate profits despite the collapse in oil, and now the overbought technical condition has been relieved. While most sectors are gathering fundamental support and our sector rotation model remains bullish, the Energy sector looks fundamentally weak and continues to ran...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

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Option Review

SPX Call Spread Eyes Fresh Record Highs By Year End

Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...



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Market Shadows

Official Moves in the Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio

By Ilene 

I officially bought 250 shares of EZCH at $18.76 and sold 300 shares of IGT at $17.09 in Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio yesterday (Fri. 11-21).

Click here for Thursday's post where I was thinking about buying EZCH. After further reading, I decided to add it to the virtual portfolio and to sell IGT and several other stocks, which we'll be saying goodbye to next week.

Notes

1. th...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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