Archive for the ‘Weekend Review’ Category

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 2/26/2012

My last weekend update is dated from January 30 so after a long hiatus, here is an update of our virtual portfolio. Since the last update, we have closed the AA Money portfolio due to a lack of enthusiasm (and activity) and I have stopped tracking the FAS strangle as the low VIX makes it hard to get rewarded for the risk! But we have added a small $5KP virtual portfolio which does not use any margin.

FAS Money

We have had to recover from a big move up by FAS and a low VIX which keeps option prices low. But the portfolio has gaine about 10% since the last update.

Last update P&L – $5499.00

IWM Money

Not a lot of activity in this portfolio where the main focus is on the large IWM BCS. But the portfolio has grown over 20% since the last update.

Last update P&L – $1998.00

$5KP Portfolio

This is the virtual portfolio that replaced the AA Money portfolio. It does not use margin and we will keep holdings under $5K.

AAPL $50K Portfolio

What is there to say about this portfolio…. $132K of profit in a bit less than 3 months. Unbelievable and great job by lflan!

Last update P&L – $53,205.00

$25KP Portfolio

Comments about this portfolio can be found in Phil’s daily post. I have included only February trades as the list of trade is getting too long to fit in the article.

Last update P&L – (-$5447.00)





Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/8/2012

Here is a quick update of all our virtual portfolios performance over the last week. No detailed explanation this week as I outlined the strategies last week. As before, I will indicate the P&L at the end of last week and the list of trades and P&L at the end of this week.

AA Money

Big turnaround for AA Money as AA crossed over $9.00 during the week which boosted the profit of our short 9 puts. We cashed them for a 66% profit on Friday and sold a set of February puts and calls (9 strikes) in advance of AA’s earnings slated to be released on Monday.

Recap of 1/2/2012 – YTD P&L – ($375.00)

Overall, a $715 turnaround….

FAS Money

A decent week for FAS Money – we bought back the FAS Jan 50 puts for an 88% profit during the run-up but had to roll the Jan 68 calls to the Jan 73 calls as FAS ran past 70. We also sold 2 sets of FAS 65 puts, one of which expired worthless on Friday. The XLF BCS is also in the money now.

Recap of 1/2/2012 – YTD P&L – $3852.00

IWM Money

Very good week for IWM Money where we were positioned almost perfectly at the beginning of the week. We bought back all the sold puts on Tuesday for large wins (at least 75%). And we sold another put on Wednesday. The BCS is now well in the money. We will have to monitor the TNA calls as they are now ITM.

Recap of 1/2/2012 – YTD P&L – $1683.00

A 24% improvement in the P&L!

FAS Strangle Experiment

Another decent week given the fact that we traded only 3 days as I didn’t like any setup on Thursday. We tried another tight strangle on Friday and got scared in the middle of the afternoon when FAS run up over $1.00, but were able to squeeze by at the end. Actually, if you had waited until the last minute, the call side turned profitable. For others, a small loss made up by the fact that the put side expired worthless. But another $0.96 of premium sold this week. No open position over the weekend.

Recap of 1/2/2012 – YTD P&L – $8280.00

AAPL 50k

Not much to say but wow… Great job by lflan this week! I’ll…
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Weekend Wrap-Up

Another great week for our levels!

In last weekend’s wrap-up we were very pleased that the Dow stayed right in the lower end of our range, from 8,200 to 8,650.  This week we tested the upper end of the range from 8,650 to 9,100 and the two weeks, taken together make a great case for 8,650 being our mid-point and looking at the chart illustrates why the VIX is falling so fast – while it still may FEEL volatile during the day, we’re actually moving into a tighter range

Looking at a longer-range chart, we need to break over 9,100 early this week and get up to 9,500 to flatten the declining 50 dma so that’s what we’ll be looking for this expiration week.  It’s going to take some more stimulus to get there, we have a possible package for the auto industry and a Fed cut on Tuesday as well as possible action by global central banks.  There is an international fall-out to the Madoff scandal as EU banks have disclosed Billions in exposure to this ponzi scheme.  There are many articles on the scandal under "Phil’s Favorites" so I won’t go over it here but the repercussions are what we will be concerned about next week.

Monday started off with a bang as Obama discussed the New, New Deal – a $500Bn or so infrastructure project to keep Americans busy next year.  That was all the market needed to take off on Monday but we were more than a little skeptical as we’ve seen manic Monday’s before and they seldom follow through.  With all the stimulus flying around we discussed the need to learn the word "Quadrillion" as we’ll be using it soon enough the way the World governments are tossing money around.   We were totally incredulous that gold could still be under $750 so we kept on buying and that worked out very well this week!  As I said on Monday morning: "Trillion here, a Trillion there and before you know it we’re up to a thousand Trillion and you have to know what to call it" and THAT is why we like gold.

Nonetheless, I pointed out that the MSCI index was now trading at $1.17 per dollar in net assets, the lowest level since 1995 with 39% of the stocks trading below shareholder equity.  The economy may be really, really bad but we are
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PSW Contest – Closing Out the Very Merry Month of May

We had a fantastic May and made a lot of good picks and had tremendous returns on our members site.

We closed 263 positions during the month with a 186% average gain and a gain on capital of 299% – that's what we call a great month!

Our members already know what a great job we do and support the site.  Now I would like to ask those of you who read us for free to do me a favor:  This site is supported by advertising and advertising is supported by people like you coming to www.philstockworld.com and reading our site or signing up for the FREE EMail Subscription through FeedBurner, at the top right-hand corner of the free site.  Those of you who do subscribe already know that we never give out your names or Emails to anyone and we don't even ask you to join – I'm not asking you to join now – what I am asking for is for you to help us move this site up to the next level.

We will be closing to new subscribers shortly for the summer as we revamp the site, add some features and launch our first paid newsletter service.  Those of you who are FeedBurner subscribers will get a mailing when we reopen the site, as memberships will be limited, and will get an opportunity to receive the newsletter at a discount.  Right now though, I'm asking for your help in bringing some more people over to the free site so, if you enjoy reading my daily commentary and find the information useful, please do me the small favor of sending this invitation to subscribe along to 5 friends or family members (hopefully not mutually exclusive!) who you think would find this useful as well.

Free Email Subscription!

Enter your email address:

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That's it, that's all I'm asking you to do in exchange for all this free content!  Please though, 5 people.  We want to get to a level of audience where we can negotiate our own ad rates and that's
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Virtual Portfolio Update

Hi everyone, the online spreadsheets have just been updated.  A downloadable version has also been posted for January.

Cheers,
Jared





Wild Wednesday Wrap-Up

Wheee!  That was fun….  Can we do it again?

Unfortunately yes.  The market is either consolidating for a breakout or getting toppy, I’ll let you know which as soon as we figure it out but, as I said this morning – I don’t know and, apparently neither do investors who rushed in and out of stocks today like the audience in a Bugs Bunny joke.

Much like Bugs Bunny pulling the lever that said "Intermission" and causing everyone to run out and crush Elmer Fudd, we played today’s action pretty perfectly as we took our vacation on Friday long in the market and short on oil and today (until 1pm anyway) those were both right on.

The markets were indeed off to a fine start this morning and punched through record highs but pulled away from a fairly bearish Fed report that indicated the Governors aren’t as wild about the economy as investors are but I think people are taking the minutes way out of context and the sell-off was unwarranted, even though I expected it to happen.

We were very comfortable with our choices today as the market failed us at pretty much all of our targets so we got in and out of positions with pretty good timing:

Don’t blame oil for this one, they did their best by dropping and dropping and then dropping some more finishing the day way down at $58.32 below my $58.71 wish-list target!  Next stop may be $57.50 as the roaches scramble to leave the trap.

This is…
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Inside Scoop on the Apple IPhone and Other Patents!

 

 

The IPhone is coming, the IPhone is coming, the IPhone is coming!  …On Monday???

 

 

  ipod phone 

Well, according to Gizmodo who, I am certain, are just looking for publicity.  This is starting to remind me of when Dean Kamen told us that "IT" would revolutionize transportation, reshape cities, resolve the energy crisis etc. and everyone speculated on everything "IT" could possibly be, from properly recounting the Florida ballots to cold fusion but, in the end, it turned out to be a scooter that very rich people can play polo on!

While I don't think the IPhone will turn out to be a Segway-sized disappointment, I'm very concerned that I won't be able to play polo on it and, with expectations running as high as they are it had better at least cure cancer!

One cool thing that is in the works from Apple is a patent they filed earlier in the year to embed "microscopic image sensors" in an LCD screen, effecively turning your monitor or, more importantly, your phone's screen, into a camera – allowing for true face-to-face communications!

 

And have you ever wondered why Apple insists on keeping that huge amount of space at the bottom half of their laptops?  Well here's the embedded docking station they filed a patent on!

Now if that were a cell-capable IPod you could get web access anywhere in the world….  Interesting! 

According to Kevin Rose, of Digg, the IPhone will have the following features:

  • January launch on "all" providers, both CDMA and GSM
  • Extremely small form factor
  • Two battery design (with single charger) — one for playing music, the other for phone functions
  • Flash memory: 4GB for $249, 8GB for $449
  • "Slide-out keyboard"
  • Possibly touchscreen


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Wild Weekly Wrap-Up

I said in the morning that “markets will react (or overreact) to whatever jobs number we get” and they certainly did both!

The Dow flew up to 12,300 in the first 15 minutes, dove to 12,250 in the next, flew all the way up to 12,331 just an hour later and finished fairly well at 12,307 but they got me today with that early move!

It took a while for the market to come around to my Goldilocks view of the jobs report but the other indices all made similar moves eventually except the SOX and the Transports, who missed our marks.  This does leave me neutral towards the markets going into Monday.

Oil fell again and we had a great time with puts for the third day in a row, our Valero Group mainly gave us a nice spike at the open and drifted down all day, despite a desperate and very fake pump job on oil earlier in the day.  At one point oil was up over $1 and we took that time to grab more puts!

The stake in the heart for oil came as the dollar bounced off our 82.50 targetand was propelled 1% higher by comments made by Hank Paulson on CNBC at mid-day.  After that, the drop was just a matter of time!

Crude did hold $62.03, so we are not out of the woods yet but it was another interesting day at the NYMEX as losses mounted across the board.  The February contract (active a week from today) had huge volume but still dropped to $63.09, just $1.06 over the current month contract!  This is not good for traders who are in the red and were hoping to roll into the next month – unless of course there are people who are willing to let them store their oil very cheaply as they pray for a very late (or very, very early) hurricane…

Now the November contracts, at $67.95, have fallen below the October contracts ($68.08) and both are higher than the Decembers, which dropped to $67.73.  The September contracts, at $67.35 are still below the August contract price ($67.39).  Oh the horror!

Since everyone on the planet was short the dollar this week (except us, of course) there could be a bit of a short squeeze next week, depending on how the China trip goes of course.   Gold moved in tandem with the dollar, losing 1%
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Forgotten Trades

Arnie made a comment the other day that we all have very short trading time-frames and it really hurt my feelings (as you all know, I’m the shy, sensitive type).

I am not a day trader!  I am not adverse to taking profits during the day – but that does not make me a day trader…

I take a lot of long positions but, as I have mentioned often before, I generally tend to stop worrying about them once they make over 20% as I just set my stop (-20% of the profits) and forget about them.  Tracking a bunch of Jan ’09 leaps every week would make for a very dull column!

This column is generally about short-term options, not stocks or leaps, which are very, very dull but I am very, very good at picking those – probably better than I am at close options.  As I always say, the close options are for play money while we watch our real plays take shape! 

The last time I touched base with these picks was August 3rd so I think we can indulge ourselves once a quarter to see how I’m doing.  I am listing them all, the good, the bad and the ugly because I don’t want you to think I’m cherry picking (as embarrassing as some of these picks are!).

I’m sorry that the original picks are all buried at the old blogspot account (and I’m in no mood to dig them out of that mess) but we’ll fix it all on the new site (I hope!).  I apologize for not having all the exact start dates but if I didn’t find them in August, I’ll never find them now!

From 8/3 picks on you’ll notice a different format as I’m trying to bring this fully up to date.

==================================

Sometimes it’s nice to just buy something and walk away for a while… AAPL Jan $55s seemed expensive at $9.40 on 6/20 but we held through the dip by selling the July $60s and collecting $2.50, lowering our base to $6.90.  They currently trade at $31.50 (up 357%).

I got tired of waiting for ADM Jan $35 puts (9/18 – $1.35) as they were the protective side of a spread but I should have let them play out, now $2 (up 48%).

I always play the Boeing Buddies (TM) but I hate to sound like a…
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Weekly Wrap-Up

What a way to end the week!

Dow and S&P records going into the weekend – now that’s investor confidence!  Minor pullbacks from the other indices but all well within our comfort levels, including the transports who came within 5 points of my target of 2,675 (despite the decline in oil) but closed at a comfortable 2,691.

You’ve got to love it when every single index we track hits our predictions on the nose!

It’s been a good week for predictions in general – in comments at 9:23 I recommended a day trade on the Dow: “I’m going to be checking out the DIA $122 and $123 calls if the market takes a nice dip.  I’m looking for a bounce at $122.70.”

Here’s the chart, bottoming at $122.67 at 9:39!  Needless to say that trade went very well with the DIA $122s coming in at .75 and finishing at $1.20 (up 60%) and the $123s coming in at .10 and giving us a quarter at the close (up 150%).

But that was not our best trade of the day!  That hardly rates a mention compared to the ICE trades!

We had a great session Thursday deciding how to take advantage of the NMX IPO and we decided that the ICEwould be a beneficiary and we picked up the Dec $85s for $12.30.  They finished the day at $17 (up 38%) but I lost a dollar if it going out and in on an early dip so I took half off the table at $20 (up 63%).

At 10:01 I decided to make a $1.50 offer on the $95s and by 10:04 it got away from me but filled at $1.20 just 10 minutes later.  We exited that one at 11:30 for $9 - 650% in one hour!  That’s a pretty good annual rate of return folks!  It also turned out to be the EXACT top of the day so I’m very, very proud of myself (pat, pat).

Congrats to everyone who played along at home – now that the earnings nonsense is over, we can concentrate on situational trades like this on the pro site.

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stocks and shares cartoons, stocks and shares cartoon, stocks and shares picture, stocks and shares pictures, stocks and shares image, stocks and shares images, stocks and shares illustration, stocks and shares illustrations 

On the whole it was in incredible week, we even started making some money on oil puts again!

Relentless doubling down strained my position limit and left me unable to add positions to take advantage of Thursday’s drop but I was happy…
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ValueWalk

4th Circuit Shoots Down Travel Ban; Trump's Fatal Mistake

By JOHN F. BANZHAF. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The 4th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals shot down President Trump’s travel ban 10-3, leaving the earlier-imposed freeze largely in place, because it allegedly discriminated against Muslims, but the result might have been avoided had the President’s lawyers not made what appears to be a fatal mistake, says public interest law professor John Banzhaf.

Trump’s lawyers could have seriously undercut if not eviscerated the argument that the ban intentionally and unconstitutionally discriminated against Muslims by simply adding one or more non-Muslim countries to his second executive order, says Banzhaf, who predicted this very result.

...

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Zero Hedge

Foreign Central Banks Are Quietly Scooping Up US Treasurys

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Back in February, we wrote that over half a year after we first reported last August that foreign official institutions - central banks, sovereign wealth funds and reserve managers - are liquidating US Treasurys in record amounts, a process that only accelerated into year end when official entities sold a record $405 billion in US paper in...



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Phil's Favorites

Fed Eyes Second Quarter Recovery, Expects Trump Fiscal Policy Will Expand Economy

Courtesy of Mish.

Data supporting the second quarter recovery thesis is nonexistent. Four out of four of the recent hard data economic reports have been negative.

Soft data diffusion indexes do not look so hot either.

Earlier today the Census Bureau reported the trade deficit widened. The same report shows retail and wholesale inventories declined by 0.3% each.

Advance Wholesale Inventories

Wholesale inventories for April, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $592.0 billion, down 0.3 percent (±0.4 percent)* from March 2017, and were up 1.8 perce...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

OPEC Boss Embraces Shift to Top Diplomat (The Wall Street Journal)

During a turbulent year for oil prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ top official, Mohammad Barkindo, has embraced a role as the global energy industry’s chief diplomat.

Eurozone ‘still fragile’ despite growth spurt, warns European Central Bank (The Telegraph)

Europe’s sovereign debt crisis might seem like a distant memory as the eurozone economy ...



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Chart School

Gold supply and demand battle near resolution

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Energy builds up during a long slow sideways pattern which allow money managers to accumulate or distribute float, very soon either the demand or supply side is going to get knocked out. Soon we well have a winner! Both the moving averages and Gann angles show the tight APEX, a break out either way will happen. Our bias is to the upside.

If you review a hand full of gold stocks (say ABX, NEM, GG, HMY) you can see higher lows, and consolidations tightening after a period of volatility, this means those that wish to sell from the recent rally have done so, there done! Now the time for the next move is very near. The good news is that most big money managers missed the 2016 rally, and they are getting ready for the next move higher (we believe).

...

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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 22nd, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Soars Above $2000 For First Time Ever

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Bitcoin is now up over 100% in 2017, amid global political uncertainty and increased interest in Asia, suddenly spiking above $2000 this afternoon for the first time ever...

That is a year-over-year gain of more than 350%. The move comes, as CoinDesk notes, amid a broader boost in the cryptocurrency market, which broke the $60bn barrier today. The increase has taken place amid strong surges from Ripple's XRP, which seeks to lower costs in enterprise cross-border payments, and ethereum's ether token, a cryptographic asse...



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Biotech

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

Precision editing DNA allows for some amazing applications. Ian Haydon, CC BY-ND

There’s a revolution happening in biology, and its name is CRISPR.

CRISPR (pronounced “crisper”) is a powerful technique for editing DNA. It has received an enormous amount of attention in the scientific and popular press, largely based on the promise of what this powerful gene e...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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